We introduce non-Markovian SIR epidemic spreading model inspired by the characteristics of the COVID-19, by considering discrete-and continuous-time versions. The distributions of infection intensity and recovery period may take an arbitrary form. By taking corresponding choice of these functions, it is shown that the model reduces to the classical Markovian case. The epidemic threshold is analytically determined for arbitrary functions of infectivity and recovery and verified numerically. The relevance of the model is shown by modeling the first wave of the epidemic in Italy, Spain and the UK, in the spring, 2020.
Abstract
The emerging diffusive dynamics in many complex systems show a characteristic crossover behaviour from anomalous to normal diffusion which is otherwise fitted by two independent power-laws. A prominent example for a subdiffusive–diffusive crossover are viscoelastic systems such as lipid bilayer membranes, while superdiffusive–diffusive crossovers occur in systems of actively moving biological cells. We here consider the general dynamics of a stochastic particle driven by so-called tempered fractional Gaussian noise, that is noise with Gaussian amplitude and power-law correlations, which are cut off at some mesoscopic time scale. Concretely we consider such noise with built-in exponential or power-law tempering, driving an overdamped Langevin equation (fractional Brownian motion) and fractional Langevin equation motion. We derive explicit expressions for the mean squared displacement and correlation functions, including different shapes of the crossover behaviour depending on the concrete tempering, and discuss the physical meaning of the tempering. In the case of power-law tempering we also find a crossover behaviour from faster to slower superdiffusion and slower to faster subdiffusion. As a direct application of our model we demonstrate that the obtained dynamics quantitatively describes the subdiffusion–diffusion and subdiffusion–subdiffusion crossover in lipid bilayer systems. We also show that a model of tempered fractional Brownian motion recently proposed by Sabzikar and Meerschaert leads to physically very different behaviour with a seemingly paradoxical ballistic long time scaling.
Abstract
The emerging diffusive dynamics in many complex systems show a characteristic crossover behaviour from anomalous to normal diffusion which is otherwise fitted by two independent power-laws. A prominent example for a subdiffusive–diffusive crossover are viscoelastic systems such as lipid bilayer membranes, while superdiffusive–diffusive crossovers occur in systems of actively moving biological cells. We here consider the general dynamics of a stochastic particle driven by so-called tempered fractional Gaussian noise, that is noise with Gaussian amplitude and power-law correlations, which are cut off at some mesoscopic time scale. Concretely we consider such noise with built-in exponential or power-law tempering, driving an overdamped Langevin equation (fractional Brownian motion) and fractional Langevin equation motion. We derive explicit expressions for the mean squared displacement and correlation functions, including different shapes of the crossover behaviour depending on the concrete tempering, and discuss the physical meaning of the tempering. In the case of power-law tempering we also find a crossover behaviour from faster to slower superdiffusion and slower to faster subdiffusion. As a direct application of our model we demonstrate that the obtained dynamics quantitatively describes the subdiffusion–diffusion and subdiffusion–subdiffusion crossover in lipid bilayer systems. We also show that a model of tempered fractional Brownian motion recently proposed by Sabzikar and Meerschaert leads to physically very different behaviour with a seemingly paradoxical ballistic long time scaling.
The time-dependent Schrödinger equation in non-integer dimensions for constrained quantum motion
(2020)
We propose a theoretical model, based on a generalized Schroedinger equation, to study the behavior of a constrained quantum system in non-integer, lower than two-dimensional space. The non-integer dimensional space is formed as a product space X x Y, comprising x-coordinate with a Hausdorff measure of dimension alpha(1) = D -1 (1 < D < 2) and y-coordinate with the Lebesgue measure of dimension of length (alpha(2) = 1). Geometric constraints are set at y = 0. Two different approaches to find the Green's function are employed, both giving the same form in terms of the Fox H-function. For D = 2, the solution for two-dimensional quantum motion on a comb is recovered. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
The application of the fractional calculus in the mathematical modelling of relaxation processes in complex heterogeneous media has attracted a considerable amount of interest lately.
The reason for this is the successful implementation of fractional stochastic and kinetic equations in the studies of non-Debye relaxation.
In this work, we consider the rotational diffusion equation with a generalised memory kernel in the context of dielectric relaxation processes in a medium composed of polar molecules. We give an overview of existing models on non-exponential relaxation and introduce an exponential resetting dynamic in the corresponding process.
The autocorrelation function and complex susceptibility are analysed in detail.
We show that stochastic resetting leads to a saturation of the autocorrelation function to a constant value, in contrast to the case without resetting, for which it decays to zero. The behaviour of the autocorrelation function, as well as the complex susceptibility in the presence of resetting, confirms that the dielectric relaxation dynamics can be tuned by an appropriate choice of the resetting rate.
The presented results are general and flexible, and they will be of interest for the theoretical description of non-trivial relaxation dynamics in heterogeneous systems composed of polar molecules.
We consider anomalous stochastic processes based on the renewal continuous time random walk model with different forms for the probability density of waiting times between individual jumps. In the corresponding continuum limit we derive the generalized diffusion and Fokker-Planck-Smoluchowski equations with the corresponding memory kernels. We calculate the qth order moments in the unbiased and biased cases, and demonstrate that the generalized Einstein relation for the considered dynamics remains valid. The relaxation of modes in the case of an external harmonic potential and the convergence of the mean squared displacement to the thermal plateau are analyzed.
We study distributed-order time fractional diffusion equations characterized by multifractal memory kernels, in contrast to the simple power-law kernel of common time fractional diffusion equations. Based on the physical approach to anomalous diffusion provided by the seminal Scher-Montroll-Weiss continuous time random walk, we analyze both natural and modified-form distributed-order time fractional diffusion equations and compare the two approaches. The mean squared displacement is obtained and its limiting behavior analyzed. We derive the connection between the Wiener process, described by the conventional Langevin equation and the dynamics encoded by the distributed-order time fractional diffusion equation in terms of a generalized subordination of time. A detailed analysis of the multifractal properties of distributed-order diffusion equations is provided.
We study a distribution of times of the first arrivals to absorbing targets in turbulent diffusion, which is due to a multiplicative noise. Two examples of dynamical systems with a multiplicative noise are studied. The first one is a random process according to inhomogeneous diffusion, which is also known as a geometric Brownian motion in the Black-Scholes model. The second model is due to a random processes on a two-dimensional comb, where inhomogeneous advection is possible only along the backbone, while Brownian diffusion takes place inside the branches. It is shown that in both cases turbulent diffusion takes place as the one-dimensional random process with the log-normal distribution in the presence of absorbing targets, which are characterized by the Levy-Smirnov distribution for the first hitting times.
We obtain a generalized diffusion equation in modified or Riemann-Liouville form from continuous time random walk theory. The waiting time probability density function and mean squared displacement for different forms of the equation are explicitly calculated. We show examples of generalized diffusion equations in normal or Caputo form that encode the same probability distribution functions as those obtained from the generalized diffusion equation in modified form. The obtained equations are general and many known fractional diffusion equations are included as special cases.
We study generalized fractional Langevin equations in the presence of a harmonic potential. General expressions for the mean velocity and particle displacement, the mean squared displacement, position and velocity correlation functions, as well as normalized displacement correlation function are derived. We report exact results for the cases of internal and external friction, that is, when the driving noise is either internal and thus the fluctuation-dissipation relation is fulfilled or when the noise is external. The asymptotic behavior of the generalized stochastic oscillator is investigated, and the case of high viscous damping (overdamped limit) is considered. Additional behaviors of the normalized displacement correlation functions different from those for the regular damped harmonic oscillator are observed. In addition, the cases of a constant external force and the force free case are obtained. The validity of the generalized Einstein relation for this process is discussed. The considered fractional generalized Langevin equation may be used to model anomalous diffusive processes including single file-type diffusion.