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Institute
- Institut für Physik und Astronomie (234) (remove)
Droughts in tropical South America have an imminent and severe impact on the Amazon rainforest and affect the livelihoods of millions of people. Extremely dry conditions in Amazonia have been previously linked to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the adjacent tropical oceans. Although the sources and impacts of such droughts have been widely studied, establishing reliable multi-year lead statistical forecasts of their occurrence is still an ongoing challenge. Here, we further investigate the relationship between SST and rainfall anomalies using a complex network approach. We identify four ocean regions which exhibit the strongest overall SST correlations with central Amazon rainfall, including two particularly prominent regions in the northern and southern tropical Atlantic. Based on the time-dependent correlation between SST anomalies in these two regions alone, we establish a new early-warning method for droughts in the central Amazon basin and demonstrate its robustness in hindcasting past major drought events with lead-times up to 18 months.
We present a new method to detect phase as well as generalized synchronization in a wide class of complex systems. It is based on the recurrences of the system's trajectory to the neighborhood of a former state in phase space. We illustrate the applicability of the algorithm for the paradigmatic chaotic Rossler system in the funnel regime and for noisy data, where other methods to detect phase synchronization fail. Furthermore, we demonstrate for electrochemical experiments that the method can easily detect phase and generalized synchronization in non-phase- coherent and even non-stationary time series
Two deterministic processes leading to roughening interfaces are considered. It is shown that the dynamics of linear perturbations of turbulent regimes in coupled map lattices is governed by a discrete version of the Kardar-Parisi-Zhang equation. The asymptotic scaling behavior of the perturbation field is investigated in the case of large lattices. Secondly, the dynamics of an order-disorder interface is modelled with a simple two-dimensional coupled map lattice, possesing a turbulent and a laminar state. It is demonstrated, that in some range of parameters the spreading of the turbulent state is accompanied by kinetic roughening of the interface.
Forecasting the onset and withdrawal of the Indian summer monsoon is crucial for the life and prosperity of more than one billion inhabitants of the Indian subcontinent. However, accurate prediction of monsoon timing remains a challenge, despite numerous efforts. Here we present a method for prediction of monsoon timing based on a critical transition precursor. We identify geographic regions-tipping elements of the monsoon-and use them as observation locations for predicting onset and withdrawal dates. Unlike most predictability methods, our approach does not rely on precipitation analysis but on air temperature and relative humidity, which are well represented both in models and observations. The proposed method allows to predict onset 2 weeks earlier and withdrawal dates 1.5 months earlier than existing methods. In addition, it enables to correctly forecast monsoon duration for some anomalous years, often associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation.
Analysis of spatial and temporal extreme monsoonal rainfall over South Asia using complex networks
(2012)
We present a detailed analysis of summer monsoon rainfall over the Indian peninsular using nonlinear spatial correlations. This analysis is carried out employing the tools of complex networks and a measure of nonlinear correlation for point processes such as rainfall, called event synchronization. This study provides valuable insights into the spatial organization, scales, and structure of the 90th and 94th percentile rainfall events during the Indian summer monsoon (June-September). We furthermore analyse the influence of different critical synoptic atmospheric systems and the impact of the steep Himalayan topography on rainfall patterns. The presented method not only helps us in visualising the structure of the extreme-event rainfall fields, but also identifies the water vapor pathways and decadal-scale moisture sinks over the region. Furthermore a simple scheme based on complex networks is presented to decipher the spatial intricacies and temporal evolution of monsoonal rainfall patterns over the last 6 decades.
We study the effects of mutual and external chaotic phase synchronization in ensembles of bursting oscillators. These oscillators (used for modeling neuronal dynamics) are essentially multiple time scale systems. We show that a transition to mutual phase synchronization takes place on the bursting time scale of globally coupled oscillators, while on the spiking time scale, they behave asynchronously. We also demonstrate the effect of the onset of external chaotic phase synchronization of the bursting behavior in the studied ensemble by a periodic driving applied to one arbitrarily taken neuron. We also propose an explanation of the mechanism behind this effect. We infer that the demonstrated phenomenon can be used efficiently for controlling bursting activity in neural ensembles
We study phase synchronization effects of chaotic oscillators with a type-I intermittency behavior. The external and mutual locking of the average length of the laminar stage for coupled discrete and continuous in time systems is shown and the mechanism of this synchronization is explained. We demonstrate that this phenomenon can be described by using results of the parametric resonance theory and that this correspondence enables one to predict and derive all zones of synchronization