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Quantifying rates and processes of landscape evolution (2012)
Heimsath, Arjun M. ; Korup, Oliver
Is climate change responsible for changing landslide activity in high mountains? (2012)
Huggel, Christian ; Clague, John J. ; Korup, Oliver
Climate change, manifested by an increase in mean, minimum, and maximum temperatures and by more intense rainstorms, is becoming more evident in many regions. An important consequence of these changes may be an increase in landslides in high mountains. More research, however, is necessary to detect changes in landslide magnitude and frequency related to contemporary climate, particularly in alpine regions hosting glaciers, permafrost, and snow. These regions not only are sensitive to changes in both temperature and precipitation, but are also areas in which landslides are ubiquitous even under a stable climate. We analyze a series of catastrophic slope failures that occurred in the mountains of Europe, the Americas, and the Caucasus since the end of the 1990s. We distinguish between rock and ice avalanches, debris flows from de-glaciated areas, and landslides that involve dynamic interactions with glacial and river processes. Analysis of these events indicates several important controls on slope stability in high mountains, including: the non-linear response of firn and ice to warming; three-dimensional warming of subsurface bedrock and its relation to site geology; de-glaciation accompanied by exposure of new sediment; and combined short-term effects of precipitation and temperature. Based on several case studies, we propose that the following mechanisms can significantly alter landslide magnitude and frequency, and thus hazard, under warming conditions: (1) positive feedbacks acting on mass movement processes that after an initial climatic stimulus may evolve independently of climate change; (2) threshold behavior and tipping points in geomorphic systems; (3) storage of sediment and ice involving important lag-time effects.
Without power? - Landslide inventories in the face of climate change (2012)
Korup, Oliver ; Görüm, Tolga ; Hayakawa, Yuichi
Projected scenarios of climate change involve general predictions about the likely changes to the magnitude and frequency of landslides, particularly as a consequence of altered precipitation and temperature regimes. Whether such landslide response to contemporary or past climate change may be captured in differing scaling statistics of landslide size distributions and the erosion rates derived thereof remains debated. We test this notion with simple Monte Carlo and bootstrap simulations of statistical models commonly used to characterize empirical landslide size distributions. Our results show that significant changes to total volumes contained in such inventories may be masked by statistically indistinguishable scaling parameters, critically depending on, among others, the size of the largest of landslides recorded. Conversely, comparable model parameter values may obscure significant, i.e. more than twofold, changes to landslide occurrence, and thus inferred rates of hillslope denudation and sediment delivery to drainage networks. A time series of some of Earth's largest mass movements reveals clustering near and partly before the last glacial-interglacial transition and a distinct step-over from white noise to temporal clustering around this period. However, elucidating whether this is a distinct signal of first-order climate-change impact on slope stability or simply coincides with a transition from short-term statistical noise to long-term steady-state conditions remains an important research challenge.
Glacial advances constrained by Be-10 exposure dating of bedrock landslides, Kyrgyz Tien Shan (2011)
Sanhueza-Pino, Katia ; Korup, Oliver ; Hetzel, Ralf ; Munack, Henry ; Weidinger, Johannes T. ; Dunning, Stuart A. ; Ormukov, Cholponbek ; Kubik, Peter W.
Numerous large landslide deposits occur in the Tien Shan, a tectonically active intraplate orogen in Central Asia. Yet their significance in Quaternary landscape evolution and natural hazard assessment remains unresolved due to the lack of "absolute" age constraints. Here we present the first Be-10 exposure ages for three prominent (>10(7) m(3)) bedrock landslides that blocked major rivers and formed lakes, two of which subsequently breached, in the northern Kyrgyz Tien Shan. Three Be-10 ages reveal that one landslide in the Alamyedin River occurred at 11-15 ka, which is consistent with two C-14 ages of gastropod shells from reworked loess capping the landslide. One large landslide in Aksu River is among the oldest documented in semi-arid continental interiors, with a Be-10 age of 63-67 ka. The Ukok River landslide deposit(s) yielded variable Be-10 ages, which may result from multiple landslides, and inheritance of Be-10. Two Be-10 ages of 8.2 and 5.9 ka suggest that one major landslide occurred in the early to mid-Holocene, followed by at least one other event between 1.5 and 0.4 ka. Judging from the regional glacial chronology, all three landslides have occurred between major regional glacial advances. Whereas Alamyedin and Ukok can be considered as postglacial in this context, Aksu is of interglacial age. None of the landslide deposits show traces of glacial erosion, hence their locations and I Be ages mark maximum extents and minimum ages of glacial advances, respectively. Using toe-to-headwall altitude ratios of 0.4-0.5, we reconstruct minimum equilibrium-line altitudes that exceed previous estimates by as much as 400 m along the moister northern fringe of the Tien Shan. Our data show that deposits from large landslides can provide valuable spatio-temporal constraints for glacial advances in landscapes where moraines and glacial deposits have low preservation potential. (C) 2011 University of Washington. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Millennial lag times in the Himalayan sediment routing system (2013)
Blöthe, Jan Henrik ; Korup, Oliver
Any understanding of sediment routing from mountain belts to their forelands and offshore sinks remains incomplete without estimates of intermediate storage that decisively buffers sediment yields from erosion rates, attenuates water and sediment fluxes, and protects underlying bedrock from incision. We quantify for the first time the sediment stored in > 38000 mainly postglacial Himalayan valley fills, based on an empirical volume-area scaling of valley-fill outlines automatically extracted from digital topographic data. The estimated total volume of 690(+452/-242) km(3) is mostly contained in few large valley fills > 1 km(3), while catastrophic mass wasting adds another 177(31) km(3). Sediment storage volumes are highly disparate along the strike of the orogen. Much of the Himalaya's stock of sediment is sequestered in glacially scoured valleys that provide accommodation space for similar to 44% of the total volume upstream of the rapidly exhuming and incising syntaxes. Conversely, the step-like long-wave topography of the central Himalayas limits glacier extent, and thus any significant glacier-derived storage of sediment away from tectonic basins. We show that exclusive removal of Himalayan valley fills could nourish contemporary sediment flux from the Indus and Brahmaputra basins for > 1 kyr, though individual fills may attain residence times of > 100 kyr. These millennial lag times in the Himalayan sediment routing system may sufficiently buffer signals of short-term seismic as well as climatic disturbances, thus complicating simple correlation and interpretation of sedimentary archives from the Himalayan orogen, its foreland, and its submarine fan systems. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Monsoonal hillslope processes determine grain size-specific suspended sediment fluxes in a trans-Himalayan river (2015)
Struck, Martin ; Andermann, Christoff ; Hovius, Niels ; Korup, Oliver ; Turowski, Jens M. ; Bista, Raj ; Pandit, Hari P. ; Dahal, Ranjan K.
Sediments in rivers record the dynamics of erosion processes. While bulk sediment fluxes are easily and routinely obtained, sediment caliber remains underexplored when inferring erosion mechanisms. Yet sediment grain size distributions may be the key to discriminating their origin. We have studied grain size-specific suspended sediment fluxes in the Kali Gandaki, a major trans-Himalayan river. Two strategically located gauging stations enable tracing of sediment caliber on either side of the Himalayan orographic barrier. The data show that fine sediment input into the northern headwaters is persistent, while coarse sediment comes from the High Himalayas during the summer monsoon. A temporally matching landslide inventory similarly indicates the prominence of monsoon-driven hillslope mass wasting. Thus, mechanisms of sediment supply can leave strong traces in the fluvial caliber, which could project well beyond the mountain front and add to the variability of the sedimentary record of orogen erosion.
Postglacial denudation of western Tibetan Plateau margin outpaced by long-term exhumation (2014)
Munack, Henry ; Korup, Oliver ; Resentini, Alberto ; Limonta, Mara ; Garzanti, Eduardo ; Bloethe, Jan H. ; Scherler, Dirk ; Wittmann, Hella ; Kubik, Peter W.
The Indus River, one of Asia's premier rivers, drains the western Tibetan Plateau and the Nanga Parbat syntaxis. These two areas juxtapose some of the lowest and highest topographic relief and commensurate denudation rates in the Himalaya-Tibet orogen, respectively, yet the spatial pattern of denudation rates upstream of the syntaxis remains largely unclear, as does the way in which major rivers drive headward incision into the Tibetan Plateau. We report a new inventory of Be-10-based basinwide denudation rates from 33 tributaries flanking the Indus River along a 320 km reach across the western Tibetan Plateau margin. We find that denudation rates of up to 110 mm k.y.(-1) in the Ladakh and Zanskar Ranges systematically decrease eastward to 10 mm k.y.(-1) toward the Tibetan Plateau. Independent results from bulk petrographic and heavy mineral analyses support this denudation gradient. Assuming that incision along the Indus exerts the base-level control on tributary denudation rates, our data show a systematic eastward decrease of landscape downwearing, reaching its minimum on the Tibetan Plateau. In contrast, denudation rates increase rapidly 150-200 km downstream of a distinct knick-point that marks the Tibetan Plateau margin in the Indus River longitudinal profile. We infer that any vigorous headward incision and any accompanying erosional waves into the interior of the plateau mostly concerned reaches well below this plateau margin. Moreover, reported long-term (>10(6) yr) exhumation rates from low-temperature chronometry of 0.1-0.75 mm yr(-1) consistently exceed our Be-10-derived denudation rates. With averaging time scales of 10(3)-10(4) yr for our denudation data, we report postglacial rates of downwearing in a tectonically idle landscape. To counterbalance this apparent mismatch, denudation rates must have been higher in the Quaternary during glacial-interglacial intervals.
Japan's sediment flux to the Pacific Ocean revisited (2014)
Korup, Oliver ; Hayakawa, Yuichi ; Codilean, Alexandru T. ; Matsushi, Yuki ; Saito, Hitoshi ; Oguchi, Takashi ; Matsuzaki, Hiroyuki
Quantifying volumes and rates of delivery of terrestrial sediment from island arcs to subduction zones is indispensable for refining estimates of the thickness of trench fills that may eventually control the location and timing of submarine landslides and tsunami-generating mega-earthquakes. Despite these motivating insights, knowledge about the rates of erosion and sediment export from the Japanese islands to their Pacific subduction zones remains patchy regardless of the increasing availability of highly resolved data on surface deformation, climate, geology, and topography. Traditionally, natural erosion rates across the island arc have been estimated from regression of topographic catchment metrics and reservoir sedimentation rates that were recorded over several years to decades. We review current research in this context, correct for a systematic bias in one of the most widely used predictions, and present new estimates of decadal to millennial-scale erosion rates of Japan's terrestrial inner forearc. We draw on several independent and unprecedented inventories of mass wasting, reservoir sedimentation, and concentrations of cosmogenic Be-10 in river sands. We find that natural Be-10-derived denudation rates of several mm yr(-1) in the Japanese Alps have been sustained over several centuries to millennia, and are, within error, roughly consistent with sediment yields inferred from artificial reservoir sedimentation. Local exceptions may likely result from release of sediment storage or regional landsliding episodes that trigger transient sediment pulses. Our synopsis further reveals that catchments draining Japan's eastern seaboard differ distinctly in their tectonic, lithological, topographic, and climatic characteristics between the Tohoku, Japanese Alps, and Nankai inner forearc segments, which is underscored by a marked asymmetric pattern of erosion rates along the island arc. Erosion rates are highest (up to at least 3 mm yr(-1)) in the Japanese Alps that mark the collision of two subduction zones, where high topographic relief, hillslope and bedrock-channel steepness foster rapid denudation by mass wasting. Comparable, if slightly lower, erosion rates characterise the Nankai inner forearc in southwest Japan, most likely due to higher typhoon-driven rainfall totals and variability rather than its high topographic relief. In contrast, our estimated erosion and flux rates are lowest in the Tohoku inner forearc catchments that feed sediment into the Japan Trench. We conclude that collisional mountain building of the Japanese Alps drives some of the highest erosion rates in the island arc despite similar uplift and precipitation controls in southwest Japan. We infer that, prior to extensive river damming, reservoir construction, and coastal works, the gross of Japan's total sediment export to the Pacific Ocean entered the accretionary margin of the Nankai Trough as opposed to the comparatively sediment-starved Japan Trench. Compared to documented contemporary rates of sediment flux from mountainous catchments elsewhere in the Pacific, the rivers draining Japan's inner forearc take an intermediate position despite high relief, steep slopes, very high seismicity, and frequent rainstorms. However, the average rates of millennial-scale denudation in the Japanese Alps particularly are amongst the highest reported worldwide. Local mismatches between these late Holocene and modern rates emphasise the anthropogenic fingerprint on sediment retention that may have significantly reduced the island arc's mass flux to its subduction zones, as is the case elsewhere in east and southeast Asia. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Rainfall conditions, typhoon frequency, and contemporary landslide erosion in Japan (2014)
Saito, H. ; Korup, Oliver ; Uchida, T. ; Hayashi, S. ; Oguchi, T.
Dealing with predicted increases in extreme weather conditions due to climate change requires robust knowledge about controls on rainfall-triggered landslides. We explore relationships between rainfall and landslide size throughout the Japanese archipelago. We test whether the total volume of landslides can be predicted directly from rainfall totals, intensity, and duration using a nationwide inventory of 4744 rainfall-triggered landslides recorded from A.D. 2001 to 2011. We find that larger landslides were more abundant at the expense of smaller ones when total, maximum, and mean rainfall intensity exceeded similar to 250 mm, similar to 35 mm/h, and similar to 4 mm/h, respectively. Frequency distributions of these rainfall parameters are peaked and heavily skewed. Yet neither the most frequent nor the most extreme values of these rainfall metrics coincide consistently with the maximum landslide volumes. A striking decrease of landslide volumes at both mean and maximum rainfall intensity, as well as duration, points to an exhaustion in hillslope geomorphic response regardless of sample size, landslide type, mobilized volume, dominant lithology, or reporting bias. Our results underscore substantial offsets between the peaks of rainfall metrics and maximum associated landslide volumes, thus complicating straightforward estimates of geomorphic work from metrics of rainstorm magnitude or frequency. Only the rainfall total appears to be a suitable monotonic predictor of landslide volumes mobilized during typhoons and frontal storms.
Why so few? Landslides triggered by the 2002 Denali earthquake, Alaska (2014)
Gorum, Tolga ; Korup, Oliver ; van Westen, Cees J. ; van der Meijde, Mark ; Xu, Chong ; van der Meer, Freek D.
The 2002 M-w 7.9 Denali Fault earthquake, Alaska, provides an unparalleled opportunity to investigate in quantitative detail the regional hillslope mass-wasting response to strong seismic shaking in glacierized terrain. We present the first detailed inventory of similar to 1580 coseismic slope failures, out of which some 20% occurred above large valley glaciers, based on mapping from multi-temporal remote sensing data. We find that the Denali earthquake produced at least one order of magnitude fewer landslides in a much narrower corridor along the fault ruptures than empirical predictions for an M 8 earthquake would suggest, despite the availability of sufficiently steep and dissected mountainous topography prone to frequent slope failure. In order to explore potential controls on the reduced extent of regional coseismic landsliding we compare our data with inventories that we compiled for two recent earthquakes in periglacial and formerly glaciated terrain, i.e. at Yushu, Tibet (M-w 6.9, 2010), and Aysen Fjord, Chile (2007 M-w 6.2). Fault movement during these events was, similarly to that of the Denali earthquake, dominated by strike-slip offsets along near-vertical faults. Our comparison returns very similar coseismic landslide patterns that are consistent with the idea that fault type, geometry, and dynamic rupture process rather than widespread glacier cover were among the first-order controls on regional hillslope erosional response in these earthquakes. We conclude that estimating the amount of coseismic hillslope sediment input to the sediment cascade from earthquake magnitude alone remains highly problematic, particularly if glacierized terrain is involved. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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