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The chemical master equation (CME) is the fundamental evolution equation of the stochastic description of biochemical reaction kinetics. In most applications it is impossible to solve the CME directly due to its high dimensionality. Instead, indirect approaches based on realizations of the underlying Markov jump process are used, such as the stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA). In the SSA, however, every reaction event has to be resolved explicitly such that it becomes numerically inefficient when the system's dynamics include fast reaction processes or species with high population levels. In many hybrid approaches, such fast reactions are approximated as continuous processes or replaced by quasi-stationary distributions in either a stochastic or a deterministic context. Current hybrid approaches, however, almost exclusively rely on the computation of ensembles of stochastic realizations. We present a novel hybrid stochastic-deterministic approach to solve the CME directly. Our starting point is a partitioning of the molecular species into discrete and continuous species that induces a partitioning of the reactions into discrete-stochastic and continuous-deterministic processes. The approach is based on a WKB (Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin) ansatz for the conditional probability distribution function (PDF) of the continuous species (given a discrete state) in combination with Laplace's method of integral approximation. The resulting hybrid stochastic-deterministic evolution equations comprise a CME with averaged propensities for the PDF of the discrete species that is coupled to an evolution equation of the related expected levels of the continuous species for each discrete state. In contrast to indirect hybrid methods, the impact of the evolution of discrete species on the dynamics of the continuous species has to be taken into account explicitly. The proposed approach is efficient whenever the number of discrete molecular species is small. We illustrate the performance of the new hybrid stochastic-deterministic approach in an application to model systems of biological interest.
Purpose This review provides an overview of the current challenges in oral targeted antineoplastic drug (OAD) dosing and outlines the unexploited value of therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM). Factors influencing the pharmacokinetic exposure in OAD therapy are depicted together with an overview of different TDM approaches. Finally, current evidence for TDM for all approved OADs is reviewed. Methods A comprehensive literature search (covering literature published until April 2020), including primary and secondary scientific literature on pharmacokinetics and dose individualisation strategies for OADs, together with US FDA Clinical Pharmacology and Biopharmaceutics Reviews and the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use European Public Assessment Reports was conducted. Results OADs are highly potent drugs, which have substantially changed treatment options for cancer patients. Nevertheless, high pharmacokinetic variability and low treatment adherence are risk factors for treatment failure. TDM is a powerful tool to individualise drug dosing, ensure drug concentrations within the therapeutic window and increase treatment success rates. After reviewing the literature for 71 approved OADs, we show that exposure-response and/or exposure-toxicity relationships have been established for the majority. Moreover, TDM has been proven to be feasible for individualised dosing of abiraterone, everolimus, imatinib, pazopanib, sunitinib and tamoxifen in prospective studies. There is a lack of experience in how to best implement TDM as part of clinical routine in OAD cancer therapy. Conclusion Sub-therapeutic concentrations and severe adverse events are current challenges in OAD treatment, which can both be addressed by the application of TDM-guided dosing, ensuring concentrations within the therapeutic window.
Understanding and reducing complex systems pharmacology models based on a novel input-response index
(2018)
A growing understanding of complex processes in biology has led to large-scale mechanistic models of pharmacologically relevant processes. These models are increasingly used to study the response of the system to a given input or stimulus, e.g., after drug administration. Understanding the input–response relationship, however, is often a challenging task due to the complexity of the interactions between its constituents as well as the size of the models. An approach that quantifies the importance of the different constituents for a given input–output relationship and allows to reduce the dynamics to its essential features is therefore highly desirable. In this article, we present a novel state- and time-dependent quantity called the input–response index that quantifies the importance of state variables for a given input–response relationship at a particular time. It is based on the concept of time-bounded controllability and observability, and defined with respect to a reference dynamics. In application to the brown snake venom–fibrinogen (Fg) network, the input–response indices give insight into the coordinated action of specific coagulation factors and about those factors that contribute only little to the response. We demonstrate how the indices can be used to reduce large-scale models in a two-step procedure: (i) elimination of states whose dynamics have only minor impact on the input–response relationship, and (ii) proper lumping of the remaining (lower order) model. In application to the brown snake venom–fibrinogen network, this resulted in a reduction from 62 to 8 state variables in the first step, and a further reduction to 5 state variables in the second step. We further illustrate that the sequence, in which a recursive algorithm eliminates and/or lumps state variables, has an impact on the final reduced model. The input–response indices are particularly suited to determine an informed sequence, since they are based on the dynamics of the original system. In summary, the novel measure of importance provides a powerful tool for analysing the complex dynamics of large-scale systems and a means for very efficient model order reduction of nonlinear systems.
Background and objective Optimisation of hydrocortisone replacement therapy in children is challenging as there is currently no licensed formulation and dose in Europe for children under 6 years of age. In addition, hydrocortisone has non-linear pharmacokinetics caused by saturable plasma protein binding. A paediatric hydrocortisone formulation, Infacort (R) oral hydrocortisone granules with taste masking, has therefore been developed. The objective of this study was to establish a population pharmacokinetic model based on studies in healthy adult volunteers to predict hydrocortisone exposure in paediatric patients with adrenal insufficiency. Methods Cortisol and binding protein concentrations were evaluated in the absence and presence of dexamethasone in healthy volunteers (n = 30). Dexamethasone was used to suppress endogenous cortisol concentrations prior to and after single doses of 0.5, 2, 5 and 10 mg of Infacort (R) or 20 mg of Infacort (R)/hydrocortisone tablet/hydrocortisone intravenously. A plasma protein binding model was established using unbound and total cortisol concentrations, and sequentially integrated into the pharmacokinetic model. Results Both specific (non-linear) and non-specific (linear) protein binding were included in the cortisol binding model. A two-compartment disposition model with saturable absorption and constant endogenous cortisol baseline (Baseline (cort),15.5 nmol/L) described the data accurately. The predicted cortisol exposure for a given dose varied considerably within a small body weight range in individuals weighing < 20 kg. Conclusions Our semi-mechanistic population pharmacokinetic model for hydrocortisone captures the complex pharmacokinetics of hydrocortisone in a simplified but comprehensive framework. The predicted cortisol exposure indicated the importance of defining an accurate hydrocortisone dose to mimic physiological concentrations for neonates and infants weighing < 20 kg.
Aim Quantitative and kinetic insights into the drug exposure-disease response relationship might enhance our knowledge on loss of response and support more effective monitoring of inflammatory activity by biomarkers in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) treated with infliximab (IFX). This study aimed to derive recommendations for dose adjustment and treatment optimisation based on mechanistic characterisation of the relationship between IFX serum concentration and C-reactive protein (CRP) concentration. <br /> Methods Data from an investigator-initiated trial included 121 patients with IBD during IFX maintenance treatment. Serum concentrations of IFX, antidrug antibodies (ADA), CRP, and disease-related covariates were determined at the mid-term and end of a dosing interval. Data were analysed using a pharmacometric nonlinear mixed-effects modelling approach. An IFX exposure-CRP model was generated and applied to evaluate dosing regimens to achieve CRP remission. <br /> Results The generated quantitative model showed that IFX has the potential to inhibit up to 72% (9% relative standard error [RSE]) of CRP synthesis in a patient. IFX concentration leading to 90% of the maximum CRP synthesis inhibition was 18.4 mu g/mL (43% RSE). Presence of ADA was the most influential factor on IFX exposure. With standard dosing strategy, >= 55% of ADA+ patients experienced CRP nonremission. Shortening the dosing interval and co-therapy with immunomodulators were found to be the most beneficial strategies to maintain CRP remission. <br /> Conclusions With the generated model we could for the first time establish a robust relationship between IFX exposure and CRP synthesis inhibition, which could be utilised for treatment optimisation in IBD patients.
Background: Infliximab (IFX), an anti-TNF monoclonal antibody approved for the treatment of inflammatory bowel disease, is dosed per kg body weight (BW). However, the rationale for body size adjustment has not been unequivocally demonstrated [1], and first attempts to improve IFX therapy have been undertaken [2]. The aim of our study was to assess the impact of different dosing strategies (i.e. body size-adjusted and fixed dosing) on drug exposure and pharmacokinetic (PK) target attainment. For this purpose, a comprehensive simulation study was performed, using patient characteristics (n=116) from an in-house clinical database.
Methods: IFX concentration-time profiles of 1000 virtual, clinically representative patients were generated using a previously published PK model for IFX in patients with Crohn's disease [3]. For each patient 1000 profiles accounting for PK variability were considered. The IFX exposure during maintenance treatment after the following dosing strategies was compared: i) fixed dose, and per ii) BW, iii) lean BW (LBW), iv) body surface area (BSA), v) height (HT), vi) body mass index (BMI) and vii) fat-free mass (FFM)). For each dosing strategy the variability in maximum concentration Cmax, minimum concentration Cmin (= C8weeks) and area under the concentration-time curve (AUC), as well as percent of patients achieving the PK target, Cmin=3 μg/mL [4] were assessed.
Results: For all dosing strategies the variability of Cmin (CV ≈110%) was highest, compared to Cmax and AUC, and was of similar extent regardless of dosing strategy. The proportion of patients reaching the PK target (≈⅓ was approximately equal for all dosing strategies.
Broad-spectrum antibiotic combination therapy is frequently applied due to increasing resistance development of infective pathogens. The objective of the present study was to evaluate two common empiric broad-spectrum combination therapies consisting of either linezolid (LZD) or vancomycin (VAN) combined with meropenem (MER) against Staphylococcus aureus (S. aureus) as the most frequent causative pathogen of severe infections. A semimechanistic pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) model mimicking a simplified bacterial life-cycle of S. aureus was developed upon time-kill curve data to describe the effects of LZD, VAN, and MER alone and in dual combinations. The PK-PD model was successfully (i) evaluated with external data from two clinical S. aureus isolates and further drug combinations and (ii) challenged to predict common clinical PK-PD indices and breakpoints. Finally, clinical trial simulations were performed that revealed that the combination of VAN-MER might be favorable over LZD-MER due to an unfavorable antagonistic interaction between LZD and MER.
Bayesian Data Assimilation to Support Informed Decision Making in Individualized Chemotherapy
(2020)
An essential component of therapeutic drug/biomarker monitoring (TDM) is to combine patient data with prior knowledge for model-based predictions of therapy outcomes. Current Bayesian forecasting tools typically rely only on the most probable model parameters (maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimate). This MAP-based approach, however, does neither necessarily predict the most probable outcome nor does it quantify the risks of treatment inefficacy or toxicity. Bayesian data assimilation (DA) methods overcome these limitations by providing a comprehensive uncertainty quantification. We compare DA methods with MAP-based approaches and show how probabilistic statements about key markers related to chemotherapy-induced neutropenia can be leveraged for more informative decision support in individualized chemotherapy. Sequential Bayesian DA proved to be most computationally efficient for handling interoccasion variability and integrating TDM data. For new digital monitoring devices enabling more frequent data collection, these features will be of critical importance to improve patient care decisions in various therapeutic areas.
Immunodeficient mice are crucial models to evaluate the efficacy of monoclonal antibodies (mAbs). When studying mAb pharmacokinetics (PK), protection from elimination by binding to the neonatal Fc receptor (FcRn) is known to be a major process influencing the unspecific clearance of endogenous and therapeutic IgG. The concentration of endogenous IgG in immunodeficient mice, however is reduced, and this effect on the FcRn protection mechanism and subsequently on unspecific mAb clearance is unknown, yet of great importance for the interpretation of mAb PK data. We used a PBPK modelling approach to elucidate the influence of altered endogenous IgG concentrations on unspecific mAb clearance. To this end, we used PK data in immunodeficient mice, i.e. nude and severe combined immunodeficiency mice. To avoid impact of target-mediated clearance processes, we focussed on mAbs without affinity to a target antigen in these mice. In addition, intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) data of immunocompetent mice was used to study the impact of increased total IgG concentrations on unspecific therapeutic antibody clearance. The unspecific clearance is linear, whenever therapeutic IgG concentrations, i.e. mAb and IVIG concentrations are lower than FcRn; it can be non-linear if therapeutic IgG concentrations are larger than FcRn and endogenous IgG concentrations (e.g., under IVIG therapy). Unspecific mAb clearance of immunodeficient mice is effectively linear (under mAb doses as typically used in human). Studying the impact of reduced endogenous IgG concentrations on unspecific mAb clearance is of great relevance for the extrapolation to clinical species, e.g., when predicting mAb PK in immunosuppressed cancer patients.