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Issue Despite their rather similar climatic conditions, eastern Eurasia and northern North America are largely covered by different plant functional types (deciduous or evergreen boreal forest) composed of larch or pine, spruce and fir, respectively. I propose that these deciduous and evergreen boreal forests represent alternative quasi-stable states, triggered by their different northern tree refugia that reflect the different environmental conditions experienced during the Last Glacial. Evidence This view is supported by palaeoecological and environmental evidence. Once established, Asian larch forests are likely to have stabilized through a complex vegetation-fire-permafrost soil-climate feedback system. Conclusion With respect to future forest developments, this implies that Asian larch forests are likely to be governed by long-term trajectories and are therefore largely resistant to natural climate variability on time-scales shorter than millennia. The effects of regional human impact and anthropogenic global warming might, however, cause certain stability thresholds to be crossed, meaning that irreversible transitions occur and resulting in marked consequences for ecosystem services on these human-relevant time-scales.
It is of major interest to estimate the feedback of arctic ecosystems to the global warming we expect in upcoming decades. The speed of this response is driven by the potential of species to migrate, tracking their climate optimum. For this, sessile plants have to produce and disperse seeds to newly available habitats, and pollination of ovules is needed for the seeds to be viable. These two processes are also the vectors that pass genetic information through a population. A restricted exchange among subpopulations might lead to a maladapted population due to diversity losses. Hence, a realistic implementation of these dispersal processes into a simulation model would allow an assessment of the importance of diversity for the migration of plant species in various environments worldwide. To date, dynamic global vegetation models have been optimized for a global application and overestimate the migration of biome shifts in currently warming temperatures. We hypothesize that this is caused by neglecting important fine-scale processes, which are necessary to estimate realistic vegetation trajectories. Recently, we built and parameterized a simulation model LAVESI for larches that dominate the latitudinal treelines in the northernmost areas of Siberia. In this study, we updated the vegetation model by including seed and pollen dispersal driven by wind speed and direction. The seed dispersal is modelled as a ballistic flight, and for the pollination of ovules of seeds produced, we implemented a wind-determined and distance-dependent probability distribution function using a von Mises distribution to select the pollen donor. A local sensitivity analysis of both processes supported the robustness of the model's results to the parameterization, although it highlighted the importance of recruitment and seed dispersal traits for migration rates. This individual-based and spatially explicit implementation of both dispersal processes makes it easily feasible to inherit plant traits and genetic information to assess the impact of migration processes on the genetics. Finally, we suggest how the final model can be applied to substantially help in unveiling the important drivers of migration dynamics and, with this, guide the improvement of recent global vegetation models.
Pollen-based quantitative land-cover reconstruction for northern Asia covering the last 40 ka cal BP
(2019)
We collected the available relative pollen productivity estimates (PPEs) for 27 major pollen taxa from Eurasia and applied them to estimate plant abundances during the last 40 ka cal BP (calibrated thousand years before present) using pollen counts from 203 fossil pollen records in northern Asia (north of 40 degrees N). These pollen records were organized into 42 site groups and regional mean plant abundances calculated using the REVEALS (Regional Estimates of Vegetation Abundance from Large Sites) model. Time-series clustering, constrained hierarchical clustering, and detrended canonical correspondence analysis were performed to investigate the regional pattern, time, and strength of vegetation changes, respectively. Reconstructed regional plant functional type (PFT) components for each site group are generally consistent with modern vegetation in that vegetation changes within the regions are characterized by minor changes in the abundance of PFTs rather than by an increase in new PFTs, particularly during the Holocene. We argue that pollen-based REVEALS estimates of plant abundances should be a more reliable reflection of the vegetation as pollen may overestimate the turnover, particularly when a high pollen producer invades areas dominated by low pollen producers. Comparisons with vegetation-independent climate records show that climate change is the primary factor driving land-cover changes at broad spatial and temporal scales. Vegetation changes in certain regions or periods, however, could not be explained by direct climate change, e.g. inland Siberia, where a sharp increase in evergreen conifer tree abundance occurred at ca. 7-8 ka cal BP despite an unchanging climate, potentially reflecting their response to complex climate-permafrost-fire-vegetation interactions and thus a possible long-term lagged climate response.
Climatic and limnological changes at Lake Karakul (Tajikistan) during the last similar to 29 cal ka
(2017)
We present results of analyses on a sediment core from Lake Karakul, located in the eastern Pamir Mountains, Tajikistan. The core spans the last similar to 29 cal ka. We investigated and assessed processes internal and external to the lake to infer changes in past moisture availability. Among the variables used to infer lake-external processes, high values of grain-size end-member (EM) 3 (wide grain-size distribution that reflects fluvial input) and high Sr/Rb and Zr/Rb ratios (coinciding with coarse grain sizes), are indicative of moister conditions. High values in EM1, EM2 (peaks of small grain sizes that reflect long-distance dust transport or fine, glacially derived clastic input) and TiO2 (terrigenous input) are thought to reflect greater influence of dry air masses, most likely of Westerly origin. High input of dust from distant sources, beginning before the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and continuing to the late glacial, reflects the influence of dry Westerlies, whereas peaks in fluvial input suggest increased moisture availability. The early to early-middle Holocene is characterised by coarse mean grain sizes, indicating constant, high fluvial input and moister conditions in the region. A steady increase in terrigenous dust and a decrease in fluvial input from 6.6 cal ka BP onwards points to the Westerlies as the predominant atmospheric circulation through to present, and marks a return to drier and even arid conditions in the area. Proxies for productivity (TOC, TOC/TN, TOCBr), redox potential (Fe/Mn) and changes in the endogenic carbonate precipitation (TIC, delta(18) OCarb) indicate changes within the lake. Low productivity characterised the lake from the late Pleistocene until 6.6 cal ka BP, and increased rapidly afterwards. Lake level remained low until the LGM, but water depth increased to a maximum during the late glacial and remained high into the early Holocene. Subsequently, the water level decreased to its present stage. Today the lake system is mainly climatically controlled, but the depositional regime is also driven by internal limnogeological processes.
Early agriculture can be detected in palaeovegetation records, but quantification of the relative importance of climate and land use in influencing regional vegetation composition since the onset of agriculture is a topic that is rarely addressed. We present a novel approach that combines pollen-based REVEALS estimates of plant cover with climate, anthropogenic land-cover and dynamic vegetation modelling results. This is used to quantify the relative impacts of land use and climate on Holocene vegetation at a sub-continental scale, i.e. northern and western Europe north of the Alps. We use redundancy analysis and variation partitioning to quantify the percentage of variation in vegetation composition explained by the climate and land-use variables, and Monte Carlo permutation tests to assess the statistical significance of each variable. We further use a similarity index to combine pollen based REVEALS estimates with climate-driven dynamic vegetation modelling results. The overall results indicate that climate is the major driver of vegetation when the Holocene is considered as a whole and at the sub-continental scale, although land use is important regionally. Four critical phases of land-use effects on vegetation are identified. The first phase (from 7000 to 6500 BP) corresponds to the early impacts on vegetation of farming and Neolithic forest clearance and to the dominance of climate as a driver of vegetation change. During the second phase (from 4500 to 4000 BP), land use becomes a major control of vegetation. Climate is still the principal driver, although its influence decreases gradually. The third phase (from 2000 to 1500 BP) is characterised by the continued role of climate on vegetation as a consequence of late-Holocene climate shifts and specific climate events that influence vegetation as well as land use. The last phase (from 500 to 350 BP) shows an acceleration of vegetation changes, in particular during the last century, caused by new farming practices and forestry in response to population growth and industrialization. This is a unique signature of anthropogenic impact within the Holocene but European vegetation remains climatically sensitive and thus may continue to respond to ongoing climate change. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Radiocarbon and optically stimulated luminescence dating of sediments from Lake Karakul, Tajikistan
(2017)
Lake Karakul in the eastern Pamirs is a large and closed-basin lake in a partly glaciated catchment. Two parallel sediment cores were collected from 12 m water depth. The cores were correlated using XRF analysis and dated using radiocarbon and OSL techniques. The age results of the two dating methods are generally in agreement. The correlated composite core of 12.26 m length represents continuous accumulation of sediments in the lake basin since 31 ka. The lake reservoir effect (LRE) remained relatively constant over this period. High sediment accumulation rates (SedARs) were recorded before 23 ka and after 6.5 ka. The relatively close position of the coring location near the eastern shore of the lake implies that high SedARs resulted from low lake levels. Thus, high SedARs and lower lake levels before 23 ka probably reflect cold and dry climate conditions that inhibited the arrival of moist air at high elevation in the eastern Pamirs. Low lake levels after 6.5 ka were probably caused by declining temperatures after the warmer early Holocene, which had caused a reduction in water resources stored as snow, ice and frozen ground in the catchment. Low SedARs during 23-6.5 ka suggest increased lake levels in Lake Karakul. A short-lived increase of SedARs at 15 ka probably corresponds to the rapid melting of glaciers in the Karakul catchment during the Greenland Interstadial le, shortly after glaciers in the catchment had reached their maximum extents. The sediment cores from Lake Karakul represent an important climate archive with robust chronology for the last glacial interglacial cycle from Central Asia. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
The concept of a Global Monsoon (GM) has been proposed based on modern precipitation observations, but its application over a wide range of temporal scales is still under debate. Here, we present a synthesis of 268 continental paleo-moisture records collected from monsoonal systems in the Eastern Hemisphere, including the East Asian Monsoon (EAsM), the Indian Monsoon (IM), the East African Monsoon (EAfM), and the Australian Monsoon (AuM) covering the last 18,000 years. The overall pattern of late Glacial to Holocene moisture change is consistent with those inferred from ice cores and marine records. With respect to the last 10,000 years (10 ka), i.e. a period that has high spatial coverage, a Fuzzy c-Means clustering analysis of the moisture index records together with "Xie-Beni" index reveals four clusters of our data set. The paleoclimatic meaning of each cluster is interpreted considering the temporal evolution and spatial distribution patterns. The major trend in the tropical AuM, EAfM, and IM regions is a gradual decrease in moisture conditions since the early Holocene. Moisture changes in the EAsM regions show maximum index values between 8 and 6 ka. However, records located in nearby subtropical areas, i.e. in regions not influenced by the intertropical convergence zone, show an opposite trend compared to the tropical monsoon regions (AuM, EAfM and IM), i.e. a gradual increase. Analyses of modern meteorological data reveal the same spatial patterns as in the paleoclimate records such that, in times of overall monsoon strengthening, lower precipitation rates are observed in the nearby subtropical areas. We explain this pattern as the effect of a strong monsoon circulation suppressing air uplift in nearby subtropical areas, and hence hindering precipitation. By analogy to the modern system, this would mean that during the early Holocene strong monsoon period, the intensified ascending airflows within the monsoon domains led to relatively weaker ascending or even descending airflows in the adjacent subtropical regions, resulting in a precipitation deficit compared to the late Holocene. Our conceptual model therefore integrates regionally contrasting moisture changes into the Global Monsoon hypothesis. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Ongoing and past biome transitions are generally assigned to climate and atmospheric changes (e.g. temperature, precipitation, CO2), but the major regional factors or factor combinations that drive vegetation change often remain unknown. Modelling studies applying ensemble runs can help to partition the effects of the different drivers. Such studies require careful validation with observational data. In this study, fossil pollen records from 741 sites in Europe, 728 sites in North America, and 418 sites in Asia (extracted from terrestrial archives including lake sediments) are used to reconstruct biomes at selected time slices between 40 cal ka BP (calibrated thousand years before present) and today. These results are used to validate Northern Hemisphere biome distributions (>30 degrees N) simulated by the biome model BIOME4 that has been forced with climate data simulated by a General Circulation model. Quantitative comparisons between pollen- and model-based results show a generally good fit at a broad spatial scale. Mismatches occur in central-arid Asia with a broader extent of grassland throughout the last 40 ka (likely due to the over-representation of Artemisia and Chenopodiaceae pollen) and in Europe with over-estimation of tundra at 0 cal ka BP (likely due to human impacts to some extent). Sensitivity analysis reveals that broad-scale biome changes follow the global signal of major postglacial temperature change, although the climatic variables vary in their regional and temporal importance. Temperature is the dominant variable in Europe and other rather maritime areas for biome changes between 21 and 14 ka, while precipitation is highly important in the arid inland regions of Asia and North America. The ecophysiological effect of changes in the atmospheric CO2-concentration has the highest impact during this transition than in other intervals. With respect to modern vegetation in the course of global warming, our findings imply that vegetation change in the Northern Hemisphere may be strongly limited by effective moisture changes, i.e. the combined effect of temperature and precipitation, particularly in inland areas. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
A 741-cm-long laminated sediment core, covering the last 10,800 years was collected from Lake Zigetang, central Tibetan Plateau (90.9 degrees E, 32.0 degrees N, 4560m a.s.l.), and analysed palynologically at 69 horizons. Biome reconstruction suggests a dominance of temperate steppe vegetation (mainly Artemisia and Poaceae) on the central Tibetan Plateau during the first half of the Holocene (10.8-4.4 cal. ka BP), while alpine steppes with desert elements (mainly Cyperaceae, Poaceae, Chenopodiaceae, and characteristic high-alpine herb families) tend to dominate the second half (4.4-0 cal. ka BP). The Artemisia/Cyperaceae ratio-a semi-quantitative measure for summer temperature-indicates a general cooling trend throughout the Holocene. Dense temperate steppe vegetation and maximum desert plant withdrawal, however, indicate that a suitable balance of wet and warm conditions for optimum vegetation growth likely occurred during the middle Holocene (7.3-4.4 cal. ka BP). Severe Early Holocene cold events have been reconstructed for 8.7-8.3 and similar to 7.4 cal. ka BP. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.
Recent global warming is pronounced in high-latitude regions (e.g. northern Asia), and will cause the vegetation to change. Future vegetation trends (e.g. the "arctic greening") will feed back into atmospheric circulation and the global climate system. Understanding the nature and causes of past vegetation changes is important for predicting the composition and distribution of future vegetation communities. Fossil pollen records from 468 sites in northern and eastern Asia were biomised at selected times between 40 cal ka bp and today. Biomes were also simulated using a climate-driven biome model and results from the two approaches compared in order to help understand the mechanisms behind the observed vegetation changes. The consistent biome results inferred by both approaches reveal that long-term and broad-scale vegetation patterns reflect global- to hemispheric-scale climate changes. Forest biomes increase around the beginning of the late deglaciation, become more widespread during the early and middle Holocene, and decrease in the late Holocene in fringe areas of the Asian Summer Monsoon. At the southern and southwestern margins of the taiga, forest increases in the early Holocene and shows notable species succession, which may have been caused by winter warming at ca. 7 cal ka bp. At the northeastern taiga margin (central Yakutia and northeastern Siberia), shrub expansion during the last deglaciation appears to prevent the permafrost from thawing and hinders the northward expansion of evergreen needle-leaved species until ca. 7 cal ka bp. The vegetation-climate disequilibrium during the early Holocene in the taiga-tundra transition zone suggests that projected climate warming will not cause a northward expansion of evergreen needle-leaved species.
This study provides a detailed analysis of the mid-Holocene to present-day precipitation change in the Asian monsoon region. We compare for the first time results of high resolution climate model simulations with a standardised set of mid-Holocene moisture reconstructions. Changes in the simulated summer monsoon characteristics (onset, withdrawal, length and associated rainfall) and the mechanisms causing the Holocene precipitation changes are investigated. According to the model, most parts of the Indian subcontinent received more precipitation (up to 5 mm/day) at mid-Holocene than at present-day. This is related to a stronger Indian summer monsoon accompanied by an intensified vertically integrated moisture flux convergence. The East Asian monsoon region exhibits local inhomogeneities in the simulated annual precipitation signal. The sign of this signal depends on the balance of decreased pre-monsoon and increased monsoon precipitation at mid-Holocene compared to present-day. Hence, rainfall changes in the East Asian monsoon domain are not solely associated with modifications in the summer monsoon circulation but also depend on changes in the mid-latitudinal westerly wind system that dominates the circulation during the pre-monsoon season. The proxy-based climate reconstructions confirm the regional dissimilarities in the annual precipitation signal and agree well with the model results. Our results highlight the importance of including the pre-monsoon season in climate studies of the Asian monsoon system and point out the complex response of this system to the Holocene insolation forcing. The comparison with a coarse climate model simulation reveals that this complex response can only be resolved in high resolution simulations.
Organic matter deposited in ancient, ice-rich permafrost sediments is vulnerable to climate change and may contribute to the future release of greenhouse gases; it is thus important to get a better characterization of the plant organic matter within such sediments. From a Late Quaternary permafrost sediment core from the Buor Khaya Peninsula, we analysed plant-derived sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) to identify the taxonomic composition of plant organic matter, and undertook palynological analysis to assess the environmental conditions during deposition. Using sedaDNA, we identified 154 taxa and from pollen and non-pollen palynomorphs we identified 83 taxa. In the deposits dated between 54 and 51 kyr BP, sedaDNA records a diverse low-centred polygon plant community including recurring aquatic pond vegetation while from the pollen record we infer terrestrial open-land vegetation with relatively dry environmental conditions at a regional scale. A fluctuating dominance of either terrestrial or swamp and aquatic taxa in both proxies allowed the local hydrological development of the polygon to be traced. In deposits dated between 11.4 and 9.7 kyr BP (13.4-11.1 cal kyr BP), sedaDNA shows a taxonomic turnover to moist shrub tundra and a lower taxonomic richness compared to the older samples. Pollen also records a shrub tundra community, mostly seen as changes in relative proportions of the most dominant taxa, while a decrease in taxonomic richness was less pronounced compared to sedaDNA. Our results show the advantages of using sedaDNA in combination with palynological analyses when macrofossils are rarely preserved. The high resolution of the sedaDNA record provides a detailed picture of the taxonomic composition of plant-derived organic matter throughout the core, and palynological analyses prove valuable by allowing for inferences of regional environmental conditions.
Recent and subfossil pollen spectra from the Alashan Plateau are presented in order to provide information on desert plant representation and on recent changes in vegetation and climate in this remote area in northern China. The desert vegetation composition is faithfully represented by the surface pollen spectra. The comparison of the desert plant species to the related pollen taxa yielded the following sequence from over-representation to under- representation: Chenopodiaceae, Artemisia, Ephedra fragilis-type s.l., Reaumuria, Nitraria and Calligonum. A 72 cm long sediment record from a small hydrologically-closed inter-dune lake (SE Badan Jilin Sand Sea, southern Alashan Plateau) covering the past similar to 160 years (dated by(137)Cs) was analysed palynologically. Intervals of denser Artemisia coverage on the sand dunes around the lake, indicating wetter climate, occurred from the mid-1850s to the mid-1870s, during the first two decades of the 20th century and from the late 1930s to the beginning of the 1960s
A 13.94-m-long sediment core, collected from a medium-sized lake in the Qilian Mountains (NE Tibetan Plateau, China), was analysed palynologically at 81 horizons. The interpretation of indicator taxa yielded various vertical shifts of the vegetation belts. These palaeovegetation results have been checked with lake surface pollen spectra from 8 takes representing different altitudinal vegetation belts. Our main findings are the following: A short period of the late Marine Isotope Stage 3 (around similar to 46,000 yr ago) was characterized by interglacial temperature conditions with a tree line above its present-day altitude. During the LGM, the vicinity of the lake was not covered by ice but by sparse alpine vegetation and alpine deserts, indicating that the climate was colder by similar to 4-7 degrees C than today Markedly higher temperatures were inferred from higher arboreal pollen frequencies between similar to 13,000 and similar to 7000 yr ago with a Holocene temperature optimum and a maximal Picea-Betula mixed-forest expansion between similar to 9000 and similar to 7000 yr ago, when temperatures exceeded the present-day conditions by at least 1-2 degrees C. Alpine steppes and meadows and sub-alpine shrub vegetation dominated around the lake since the middle Holocene, suggesting that vegetation and climate conditions were exceptionally stable in comparison to previous periods.
It is of major interest to estimate the feedback of arctic ecosystems to the global warming we expect in upcoming decades. The speed of this response is driven by the potential of species to migrate, tracking their climate optimum. For this, sessile plants have to produce and disperse seeds to newly available habitats, and pollination of ovules is needed for the seeds to be viable. These two processes are also the vectors that pass genetic information through a population. A restricted exchange among subpopulations might lead to a maladapted population due to diversity losses. Hence, a realistic implementation of these dispersal processes into a simulation model would allow an assessment of the importance of diversity for the migration of plant species in various environments worldwide. To date, dynamic global vegetation models have been optimized for a global application and overestimate the migration of biome shifts in currently warming temperatures. We hypothesize that this is caused by neglecting important fine-scale processes, which are necessary to estimate realistic vegetation trajectories. Recently, we built and parameterized a simulation model LAVESI for larches that dominate the latitudinal treelines in the northernmost areas of Siberia. In this study, we updated the vegetation model by including seed and pollen dispersal driven by wind speed and direction. The seed dispersal is modelled as a ballistic flight, and for the pollination of ovules of seeds produced, we implemented a wind-determined and distance-dependent probability distribution function using a von Mises distribution to select the pollen donor. A local sensitivity analysis of both processes supported the robustness of the model's results to the parameterization, although it highlighted the importance of recruitment and seed dispersal traits for migration rates. This individual-based and spatially explicit implementation of both dispersal processes makes it easily feasible to inherit plant traits and genetic information to assess the impact of migration processes on the genetics. Finally, we suggest how the final model can be applied to substantially help in unveiling the important drivers of migration dynamics and, with this, guide the improvement of recent global vegetation models.
A sediment core from Khatanga-12 Lake (Taimyr Peninsula, Krasnoyarsk krai) has been studied. The 131.5-cm-long core covers ca. 7100 years of sedimentation. Chironomid analysis, a qualitative reconstruction of the paleoenvironment in the region, and a quantitative reconstruction of variations of the mean July air temperature and in the water depth of the lake have been performed using Northern Russia chironomid-inferred mean July temperature models (Nazarova et al., 2008, 2011, 2015). Khatanga-12 Lake was formed during the Middle Holocene warming as a result of thermokarst processes. The development of the lake ecosystem at different stages of its development was influenced by climatic and cryolithogenic factors. The Middle Holocene warming, which occurred around 7100-6250 cal. years BP, activated thermokarst processes and resulted in the formation of the lake basin. Later, between 6250 and 4500 cal. years BP, a period of cooling took place, as is proved by chironomid analysis. The bottom sediments of the lake during this period were formed by erosion processes on the lake shores. The reconstructed conditions were close to the modern after 2500 cal. years BP.
The large variety of atmospheric circulation systems affecting the eastern Asian climate is reflected by the complex Asian vegetation distribution. Particularly in the transition zones of these circulation systems, vegetation is supposed to be very sensitive to climate change. Since proxy records are scarce, hitherto a mechanistic understanding of the past spatio-temporal climate-vegetation relationship is lacking. To assess the Holocene vegetation change and to obtain an ensemble of potential mid-Holocene biome distributions for eastern Asia, we forced the diagnostic biome model BIOME4 with climate anomalies of different transient Holocene climate simulations performed in coupled atmosphere-ocean(-vegetation) models. The simulated biome changes are compared with pollen-based biome records for different key regions. In all simulations, substantial biome shifts during the last 6000 years are confined to the high northern latitudes and the monsoon-westerly wind transition zone, but the temporal evolution and amplitude of change strongly depend on the climate forcing. Large parts of the southern tundra are replaced by taiga during the mid-Holocene due to a warmer growing season and the boreal treeline in northern Asia is shifted northward by approx. 4 degrees in the ensemble mean, ranging from 1.5 to 6 degrees in the individual simulations, respectively. This simulated treeline shift is in agreement with pollen-based reconstructions from northern Siberia. The desert fraction in the transition zone is reduced by 21% during the mid-Holocene compared to pre-industrial due to enhanced precipitation. The desert-steppe margin is shifted westward by 5 degrees (1-9 degrees in the individual simulations). The forest biomes are expanded north-westward by 2 degrees, ranging from 0 to 4 degrees in the single simulations. These results corroborate pollen-based reconstructions indicating an extended forest area in north-central China during the mid-Holocene. According to the model, the forest-to-non-forest and steppe-to-desert changes in the climate transition zones are spatially not uniform and not linear since the mid-Holocene.
Temporal and spatial stability of the vegetation climate relationship is a basic ecological assumption for pollen-based quantitative inferences of past climate change and for predicting future vegetation. We explore this assumption for the Holocene in eastern continental Asia (China, Mongolia). Boosted regression trees (BRT) between fossil pollen taxa percentages (Abies, Artemisia, Betula, Chenopodiaceae, Cyperaceae, Ephedra, Picea, Pinus, Poaceae and Quercus) and climate model outputs of mean annual precipitation (P-ann) and mean temperature of the warmest month (Mt(wa)) for 9 and 6 ka (ka = thousand years before present) were set up and results compared to those obtained from relating modern pollen to modern climate. Overall, our results reveal only slight temporal differences in the pollen climate relationships. Our analyses suggest that the importance of P-ann compared with Mt(wa) for taxa distribution is higher today than it was at 6 ka and 9 ka. In particular, the relevance of P-ann for Picea and Pinus increases and has become the main determinant. This change in the climate tree pollen relationship parallels a widespread tree pollen decrease in north-central China and the eastern Tibetan Plateau. We assume that this is at least partly related to vegetation climate disequilibrium originating from human impact. Increased atmospheric CO2 concentration may have permitted the expansion of moisture-loving herb taxa (Cyperaceae and Poaceae) during the late Holocene into arid/semi-arid areas. We furthermore find that the pollen climate relationship between north-central China and the eastern Tibetan Plateau is generally similar, but that regional differences are larger than temporal differences. In summary, vegetation climate relationships in China are generally stable in space and time, and pollen-based climate reconstructions can be applied to the Holocene. Regional differences imply the calibration-set should be restricted spatially.
We investigated 4.84-m-long sediment record spanning over the Late Glacial and Holocene from Lake Donggi Cona to be able to reconstruct circulation pattern on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Presently, Lake Donggi Cona is located at the boundaries of Westerlies and Asian monsoon circulations in the northeastern TP. However, the exact timing and stimulating mechanisms for climatic changes and monsoon shifts in this region are still debated. We used a 19-ka-long stable isotope record of sedimentary n-alkanes to address this discrepancy by providing insights into paleohydrological conditions. The SD of nC(23) is influenced by lake water evaporation; the BD. values of sedimentary nC(29) are mainly controlled by moisture source and temperature changes. Long-chain n-alkanes dominate over the core whereas three mean clusters (i.e. microbial, aquatic and terrestrial) can be inferred. Multi-proxies suggest five major episodes in the history of Lake Donggi Cona. The Lake Donggi Cona record indicates that the Late Glacial(18.4-14.8 cal ka BP) was dominated by low productivity of mainly microbial and aquatic organisms. Relatively low delta D values suggest low temperatures and moist conditions eventually caused by stronger Westerlies, winter monsoon and melt-water influence. Likely, the shift (similar to 17.9 cal ka BP) from microbial to enhanced aquatic input suggests either a change from deep to shallow water lake or a break in local stratification. Between 14.8 and 13.0 cal ka BP, variable climatic conditions prevailed. Although the Westerlies weekend, the increase in temperature enhanced the permafrost and snow melting (displayed by a high sedimentary accumulation rate). Higher delta D values indicate increasingly arid conditions with higher temperatures which eventually lead to high evaporative conditions and lowest lake levels. Low vegetation cover and high erosion rates led to high sediment accumulation resulting in stratification followed by anoxia in the terminal lake. From 13.0 to 9.2 cal ka BP, lowered values of 813 along with high contents of terrestrial organic matter marked the early-Holocene warming indicating a further strengthening of summer precipitation and higher lake levels. A cooling trend was observed in the mid-Holocene between 9.2 and 3.0 cal ka BP accompanied by higher moisture availability (displayed by lowered SD values) caused by reduced evaporative conditions due to a drop in temperature and recovering Westerlies. After 3.0 cal ka BP, a decrease in lake productivity and cold and semi-arid conditions prevailed suggesting lower lake levels and reduced moisture from recycled air masses and Westerlies. We propose that the summer monsoon was the predominant moisture source during the Belling-Allered warm complex and early -Holocene followed by Westerlies in mid-to-late Holocene period. Stable carbon isotope values-32%o indicate the absence of C-4 -type vegetation in the region contradicting with their presence in the Lake Qinghai record. The 81) record from lake Donggi Cona highlights the importance of the interplay between Westerlies and summer monsoon circulation at this location, which is highly dynamic in northeastern plateau compared to the North Atlantic circulation and insolation changes. Consequently lake Donggi Cona might be an important anchor point for environmental reconstructions on the Tibetan Plateau. (C) 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Understanding vegetation-modern pollen relationships is essential to provide confidence in fossil pollen reconstructions of long-term vegetation changes in savanna ecosystems. In this paper we compare the taxonomical composition and the diversity (Hill NO, N1, N2) of vegetation and modern pollen along precipitation and local grazing-intensity gradients in Namibian savannas. Modern pollen was extracted from surface soil samples collected from 5 x 5 m plots distributed along four 500 m gradients. Vegetation was surveyed in each plot. The results show a high correspondence between vegetation and pollen data in terms of composition. Precipitation and grazing explain a significant although low proportion of compositional change in the vegetation and pollen spectra. We identified pollen taxa as indicators of grazing pressure such as Limeum, Alternanthera, and particularly Tribulus. Correspondence between vegetation and pollen data in terms of taxa richness (NO) is limited, probably because of the influence of landscape heterogeneity and openness, as well as low pollen concentrations. In contrast, the effective numbers of common and dominant taxa (N1, N2) are consistent among the different datasets. We conclude that in spite of limitations, modern pollen assemblages can reflect changes in vegetation composition, richness and diversity patterns along precipitation and grazing gradients in savanna environments. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Proxy-based reconstructions and modeling of Holocene spatiotemporal precipitation patterns for China and Mongolia have hitherto yielded contradictory results indicating that the basic mechanisms behind the East Asian Summer Monsoon and its interaction with the westerly jet stream remain poorly understood. We present quantitative reconstructions of Holocene precipitation derived from 101 fossil pollen records and analyse them with the help of a minimal empirical model. We show that the westerly jet-stream axis shifted gradually southward and became less tilted since the middle Holocene. This was tracked by the summer monsoon rain band resulting in an early-Holocene precipitation maximum over most of western China, a mid-Holocene maximum in north-central and northeastern China, and a late-Holocene maximum in southeastern China. Our results suggest that a correct simulation of the orientation and position of the westerly jet stream is crucial to the reliable prediction of precipitation patterns in China and Mongolia.
The climate conditions during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3 were similar to present-day conditions, but whether humidity then exceeded present levels is debated, and the driving mechanisms of palaeoclimate evolution since MIS 3 remain unclear. Here, we use pollen data from Wulagai Lake, Inner Mongolia, to reconstruct vegetation and climate changes since the middle MIS 3. The steppe biome is reconstructed as the first dominant biome and the desert biome as the second, and the results show that the vegetation was steppe over the last 43,800 years. Poaceae, Artemisia, Caryophyllaceae and Humulus were abundant from middle to late MIS 3, indicating humid climate conditions. As drought-tolerant species such as Hippophae, Nitraria and Chenopodiaceae spread during MIS 2, the climate became arid. The Holocene is characterized by the dominance of steppe with mixed coniferous-broadleaved forests in the Greater Hinggan Range, and the desert biome retains high affinity scores, indicating that the climate was semi-arid. The climate from middle to late MIS 3 was wetter than in the Holocene; this shift was related to changes in the Northern Hemisphere's solar insolation and ice volume. The humid conditions during MIS 3 were attributed to strong ice–albedo feedback, which led to evaporation that was less than the precipitation. The enhanced evaporation caused by increased solar insolation and decreased ice volume might have exceeded the precipitation during the Holocene and resulted in low effective humidity in the Wulagai Lake basin.
Encroachment of shrubs into the unique pastoral grassland ecosystems of the Tibetan Plateau has significant impact on ecosystem services, especially forage production. We developed a process-based ecohydrological model to identify the relative importance of the main drivers of shrub encroachment for the alpine meadows within the Qinghai province. Specifically, we explored the effects of summer livestock grazing (intensity and type of livestock) together with the effects of climate warming, including interactions between herbaceous and woody vegetation and feedback loops between soil, water and vegetation. Under current climatic conditions and a traditional herd composition, an increasing grazing intensity above a threshold value of 0.32 +/- 0.10 large stock units (LSU) ha(-1) day(-1) changes the vegetation composition from herbaceous towards a woody and bare soil dominated system. Very high grazing intensity (above 0.8 LSU ha(-1) day(-1)) leads to a complete loss of any vegetation. Under warmer conditions, the vegetation showed a higher resilience against livestock farming. This resilience is enhanced when the herd has a higher browser : grazer ratio. A cooler climate has a shrub encroaching effect, whereas warmer conditions increase the cover of the herbaceous vegetation. This effect was primarily due to season length and an accompanied competitive loss of slower growing shrubs, rather than evaporative water loss leading to less soil water in deeper soil layers for deeper rooting shrubs. If climate warming is driving current shrub encroachment, we conclude it is only indirectly so. It would be manifest by an advancing shrubline and could be regarded as a climatic escape of specific shrub species such as Potentilla fruticosa. Under the recent high intensity of grazing, only herding by more browsing animals can potentially prevent both shrub encroachment and the complete loss of herbaceous vegetation.
Ecosystem boundaries, such as the Arctic-Boreal treeline, are strongly coupled with climate and were spatially highly dynamic during past glacial-interglacial cycles. Only a few studies cover vegetation changes since the last interglacial, as most of the former landscapes are inundated and difficult to access. Using pollen analysis and sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) metabarcoding, we reveal vegetation changes on Bol’shoy Lyakhovsky Island since the last interglacial from permafrost sediments. Last interglacial samples depict high levels of floral diversity with the presence of trees (Larix, Picea, Populus) and shrubs (Alnus, Betula, Ribes, Cornus, Saliceae) on the currently treeless island. After the Last Glacial Maximum, Larix re-colonised the island but disappeared along with most shrub taxa. This was probably caused by Holocene sea-level rise, which led to increased oceanic conditions on the island. Additionally, we applied two newly developed larch-specific chloroplast markers to evaluate their potential for tracking past population dynamics from environmental samples. The novel markers were successfully re-sequenced and exhibited two variants of each marker in last interglacial samples. SedaDNA can track vegetation changes as well as genetic changes across geographic space through time and can improve our understanding of past processes that shape modern patterns.
Quantitative information on vegetation and climate history from the late glacial-Holocene on the Tibetan Plateau is extremely rare. Here, we present palynological results of a 4.30-m-long sediment record collected from Koucha Lake in the Bayan Har Mountains, northeastern Tibetan Plateau. Vegetation change has been traced by biomisation, ordination of pollen data, and calculation of pollen ratios. The application of a pollen-climate calibration set from the eastern Tibetan Plateau to Koucha Lake pollen spectra yielded quantitative climate information. The area was covered by alpine desert/steppe, characteristic of a cold and dry climate (with 50% less precipitation than today) between 16,700 and 14,600 cal yr BP. Steppe vegetation, warm (similar to 1 degrees C higher than today) and wet conditions prevailed between 14,600 and 6600 cal yr BR These findings contradict evidence from other monsoon-influenced areas of Asia, where the early Holocene is thought to have been moist. Low effective moisture on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau was likely due to high temperature and evaporation, even though precipitation levels may have been similar to present- day values. The vegetation changed to tundra around 6600 cal yr BP, indicating that wet and cool climate conditions occurred on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau during the second half of the Holocene.
We use a data set of 35 surface pollen samples from lake sediments, moss polsters and top soils on the north- eastern Tibetan Plateau to explore the relationship between modern pollen assemblages and contemporary vegetation patterns. The surface pollen transect spanned four vegetation zones--alpine meadow, steppe, steppe desert and desert-- under different climatic/elevational conditions. Relative representation (R (rel)) values and Principal Components Analysis (PCA) were used to determine the relationships between modern pollen and vegetation and regional climate gradients. The results show that the main vegetation zones along the regional and elevational transects can be distinguished by their modern pollen spectra. Relative to Poaceae, a high representation of Artemisia, Nitraria and Chenopodiaceae was found, while Cyperaceae and Gentiana showed values in the middle range, and Ranunculaceae, Asteraceae, Ephedra and Fabaceae had low relative representation values. PCA results indicate a high correlation between the biogeoclimatic zones and annual precipitation and annual temperature and July temperature. The Artemisia/ Chenopodiaceae ratio and the Artemisia/Cyperaceae ratio are useful tools for qualitative and semi-quantitative palaeoenvironmental reconstruction on the north-eastern Tibetan Plateau. Surface lake sediments are found to have different palynomorph spectra from moss cushion and soil samples, reflecting the larger pollen source area in the contemporary vegetation for lakes.
A total of 271 pollen records were selected from a large collection of both raw and digitized pollen spectra from eastern continental Asia (70 degrees-135 degrees E and 18 degrees-55 degrees N). Following pollen percentage recalculations, taxonomic homogenization, and age-depth model revision, the pollen spectra were interpolated at a 500-year resolution and a taxonomically harmonized and temporally standardized fossil pollen dataset established with 226 pollen taxa, covering the last 22 cal lea. Of the 271 pollen records, 85% were published since 1990, with reliable chronologies and high temporal resolutions; of these, 50% have raw data with complete pollen assemblages, ensuring the quality of this dataset The pollen records available for each 500-year time slice are well distributed over all main vegetation types and climatic zones of the study area, making their pollen spectra suitable for paleovegetation and paleoclimate research. Such a dataset can be used as an example for the development of similar datasets for other regions of the world.
A high resolution multi proxy (pollen, grain size, total organic carbon) record from a small mountain lake (Lake Khuisiin; 46.6 degrees N, 101.8 degrees E; 2270 m a.s.l.) in the south eastern Khangai Mountains of central Mongolia has been used to explore changes in vegetation and climate over the last 1200 years. The pollen data indicates that the vegetation changed from dry steppe dominated by Poaceae and Artemisia (ca AD 760-950), to Larix forest steppe (ca AD 950-1170), Larix Betula forest steppe (ca AD 1170-1380), meadow dominated by Cyperaceae and Poaceae (ca AD 1380-1830), and Larix Betula forest steppe (after similar to AD 1830). The cold-wet period between AD 1380 and 1830 may relate to the Little Ice Age. Environmental changes were generally subtle and climate change seems to have been the major driver of variations in vegetation until at least the early part of the 20th century, suggesting that either the level of human activity was generally low, or the relationship between human activity and vegetation did not alter substantially between AD 760 and 1830. A review of centennial scale moisture records from China and Mongolia revealed that most areas experienced major changes at ca AD 1500 and AD 1900. However, the moisture availability since AD 1500 varied between sites, with no clear regional pattern or relationship to present day conditions. Both the reconstructions and the moisture levels simulation on a millennium scale performed in the MPI Earth System Model indicate that the monsoon-westerlies transition area shows a greater climate variability than those areas influenced by the westerlies, or by the summer monsoon only.
The late-Quaternary climate history of monsoonal Central Asia was inferred from 75 palaeoclimatic records which provide information about moisture conditions in the last 50 ka (or part of this period). Wet conditions occurred during middle and late Marine Isotope Stage 3, while the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was characterized by dry climate conditions in the region. A stepwise climate amelioration is suggested by the climate records following the LGM. Several climate signals of this period, which were reported from high-latitude ice core records, are preserved in archives from monsoonal Central Asia as well. During the early Holocene, high effective moisture was inferred from most records from the area dominated by the Indian Monsoon (e.g. the Tibetan Plateau) suggesting that Holocene optimal climate conditions occurred there during this period. In contrast, areas which are dominated by the South-East Asian monsoon (SE Monsoon) and the Westerlies (in north-western and north-central China, Mongolia) do not uniformly show an early Holocene climate optimum. For this area optimal conditions prevailed during the mid-Holocene. These apparent contradictions can possibly be explained by the regional uplift and descent of air masses in the Holocene. During the early Holocene, strengthened insolation possibly caused an enhanced low-level convergence over the Tibetan Plateau which led to the intensification of the summer monsoon. The strong air uplift caused intensified precipitation and air divergence in the upper troposphere over the Tibetan Plateau. The areas adjacent to the north therefore experienced an intensified descent of air masses and consequently increased aridity. The majority of the palaeoclimatic records suggest reduced effective moisture since the late Holocene in the region.
Pollen taxa of known indicator value are of great potential in the qualitative interpretation of pollen diagrams. Here we apply several numerical approaches to a lake-sediment based pollen data-set from the eastern and central Tibetan Plateau (112 samples) to assess the indicator value of Tibetan pollen taxa for modem vegetation types and for modern climate. Results from Multi-Response Permutation Procedures indicate that the differences between groups of pollen spectra originating from the same vegetation type (temperate desert, temperate steppe, alpine desert, alpine steppe, high-alpine meadow, subalpine shrub, and patchy forest) are statistically significant. Indicator Species Analyses identify several indicator taxa for most vegetation types. Multivariate regression tree analysis indicates that about 390 mm of annual precipitation is the most critical threshold for the modern pollen spectra. This roughly separates desert and steppe vegetation from high-alpine meadow, subalpine shrub, and patchy forest vegetation. A strong pollen-climate relationship on the Tibetan Plateau is confirmed by the large number of statistically significant pollen taxa-climate (annual precipitation or/and annual temperature) relationships as evaluated by statistical response- modelling, involving generalised linear models.
Aim: Atmospheric CO2 concentrations depend, in part, on the amount of biomass locked up in terrestrial vegetation. Information on the causes of a broad-scale vegetation transition and associated loss of biomass is thus of critical interest for understanding global palaeoclimatic changes. Pollen records from the north-eastern Tibet-Qinghai Plateau reveal a dramatic and extensive forest decline beginning c. 6000 cal. yr bp. The aim of this study is to elucidate the causes of this regional-scale change from high-biomass forest to low-biomass steppe on the Tibet-Qinghai Plateau during the second half of the Holocene. Location: Our study focuses on the north-eastern Tibet-Qinghai Plateau. Stratigraphical data used are from Qinghai Lake (3200 m a.s.l., 36 degrees 32'-37 degrees 15' N, 99 degrees 36'-100 degrees 47' E). Methods: We apply a modern pollen-precipitation transfer function from the eastern and north-eastern Tibet-Qinghai Plateau to fossil pollen spectra from Qinghai Lake to reconstruct annual precipitation changes during the Holocene. The reconstructions are compared to a stable oxygen-isotope record from the same sediment core and to results from two transient climate model simulations. Results: The pollen-based precipitation reconstruction covering the Holocene parallels moisture changes inferred from the stable oxygen-isotope record. Furthermore, these results are in close agreement with simulated model-based past annual precipitation changes. Main conclusions: In the light of these data and the model results, we conclude that it is not necessary to attribute the broad-scale forest decline to human activity. Climate change as a result of changes in the intensity of the East Asian Summer Monsoon in the mid-Holocene is the most parsimonious explanation for the widespread forest decline on the Tibet-Qinghai Plateau. Moreover, climate feedback from a reduced forest cover accentuates increasingly drier conditions in the area, indicating complex vegetation-climate interactions during this major ecological change.
Aim: Fossil pollen spectra from lake sediments on the Tibetan Plateau have been used for qualitative climate reconstruction, but no modern pollen-climate calibration set based on lake sediments is available to infer past climate quantitatively. This study aims to develop such a dataset and apply it to fossil data. Location: The Tibetan Plateau, between 30 and 40 degrees N and 87 and 103 degrees E. Methods: We collected surface sediments from 112 lakes and analysed them palynologically. The lakes span a wide range of mean annual precipitation (P-ann; 31-1022 mm), mean annual temperature (T-ann; -6.5 to 1 degrees C), and mean July temperature (T-July; 2.6-19.7 degrees C). Redundancy analysis showed that the modern pollen spectra are characteristic of their respective vegetation types and local climate. Transfer functions for P-ann, T-ann and T-July were developed with weighted averaging partial least squares. Model performance was assessed by leave-one-out cross-validation. Results: The root mean square errors of prediction (RMSEP) were 104 mm (P-ann), 1.18 degrees C (T-ann) and 1.17 degrees C (T-July). The RMSEPs, when expressed as percentages of the gradient sampled, were 10.6% (P-ann), 15.7% (T-ann) and 11.9% (T-July). These low values indicate the good performance of our models. An application of the models to fossil pollen spectra covering the last c. 50 kyr yielded realistic results for Luanhaizi Lake in the Qilian Mountains on the north-eastern Tibetan Plateau (modern P-ann 480 mm; T-ann-1 degrees C). T-ann and P-ann values similar to present ones were reconstructed for late Marine Isotope Stage 3, with minimum values for the Last Glacial Maximum (c. 300 mm and 2 degrees C below present), and maximum values for the early Holocene (c. 70 mm and 0.5 degrees C greater than present). Main conclusions: The modern pollen-climate calibration set will potentially be useful for quantitative climate reconstructions from lake-sediment pollen spectra from the Tibetan Plateau, an area of considerable climatic and biogeographical importance.
This paper aims to highlight the potential of using elemental and stable isotope analyses of aquatic macrophytes in palaeolimnological studies. Potamogeton pectinatus material was collected from modem plants (n=68) and from late glacial and Holocene-aged sediments from Koucha Lake (northeastern Tibetan Plateau; 34.0 degrees N; 97.2 degrees E; 4540 m a.s.l.). It was analyzed for delta C-13(Potamogeton) (modern: -23 to 0 parts per thousand, fossil: -19 to -4 parts per thousand) and delta N-15(Potamogeton) (modern: -11.0 to +13.8 parts per thousand, fossil: -9.5 to +6.7 parts per thousand) in addition to elemental carbon and nitrogen (modem C/N-Potamogeton: 7 to 29; fossil: 13 to 68) and sulfur (fossil: 188-899 mu mol/g dry weight). Fossil data were interpreted in terms of palaeo-nutrient availability and palaeo-productivity based on the modem relationships between various proxies and certain environmental data. Productivity of Potamogeton pectinatus mats at Koucha Lake as indicated by palaeo-epsilon(Potamogeton-TIC) (i.e. the enrichment of delta C-13(Potamogeton) relative to the delta(CTIC)-C-13) was reduced during periods of high conductivity, especially between 10.3 and 7.4 cal kyr BP. Potamogeton pectinatus material from these periods was also characterized by high S-Potamogeton indicating high sulfide concentrations and anoxic conditions within the sediments. However, C/N- Potamogeton ratios and delta N-15(Potamogeton) from the lower core section were found to have been altered by decompositional processes. A pronounced shift in the aquatic productivity of Lake Koucha occurred at similar to 7.4 cal kyr BP when the hydrological conditions shifted towards an open lake system and water depth increased. At this time a strong increase in productivity led to a strong decrease in the water HCO3- concentration as inferred from the application of a epsilon-(Potamogeton-TIC)-InHCO3- transfer function. A comparison of reconstructed productivity changes from Koucha Lake with further environmental proxies suggests that primary productivity changes are probably a function of internal lake dynamics and were only indirectly triggered by climate change.
The apparent isotope enrichment factor epsilon(macrophyte) of submerged plants (epsilon(macrophyte-DIC) = delta C-13(macrophyte) - delta C-13(DIC)) is indicative of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) supply in neutral to alkaline waters and is related to variations in aquatic productivity (Papadimitriou et al. in Limnol Oceanogr 50:1084-1095, 2005). This paper aims to evaluate the usage of epsilon(macrophyte) inferred from isotopic analyses of submerged plant fossils in addition to analyses of lake carbonate as a palaeolimnological proxy for former HCO3 (-) concentrations. Stable carbon isotopic analysis of modern Potamogeton pectinatus leaves and its host water DIC from the Tibetan Plateau and Central Yakutia (Russia) yielded values between -23.3 and +0.4aEuro degrees and between +14.0 and +6.5aEuro degrees, respectively. Values of epsilon (Potamogeton-DIC) (range -15.4 to +1.1aEuro degrees) from these lakes are significantly correlated with host water HCO3 (-) concentration (range 78-2,200 mg/l) (r = -0.86; P < 0.001), thus allowing for the development of a transfer function. Palaeo-epsilon (Potamogeton-ostracods) values from Luanhaizi Lake on the NE Tibetan Plateau, as inferred from the stable carbon isotope measurement of fossil Potamogeton pectinatus seeds (range -24 to +2.8aEuro degrees) and ostracods (range -7.8 to +7.5%) range between -14.8 and 1.6aEuro degrees. Phases of assumed disequilibrium between delta C-13(DIC) and delta C-13(ostracods) known to occur in charophyte swards (as indicated by the deposition of charophyte fossils) were excluded from the analysis of palaeo-epsilon. The application of the epsilon (Potamogeton-DIC)-HCO3 (-) transfer function yielded a median palaeo-HCO3 (-) -concentration of 290 mg/l. Variations in the dissolved organic carbon supply compare well with aquatic plant productivity changes and lake level variability as inferred from a multiproxy study of the same record including analyses of plant macrofossils, ostracods, carbonate and organic content.
This study provides a detailed analysis of the mid-Holocene to present-day precipitation change in the Asian monsoon region. We compare for the first time results of high resolution climate model simulations with a standardised set of mid-Holocene moisture reconstructions. Changes in the simulated summer monsoon characteristics (onset, withdrawal, length and associated rainfall) and the mechanisms causing the Holocene precipitation changes are investigated. According to the model, most parts of the Indian subcontinent received more precipitation (up to 5 mm/day) at mid-Holocene than at present-day. This is related to a stronger Indian summer monsoon accompanied by an intensified vertically integrated moisture flux convergence. The East Asian monsoon region exhibits local inhomogeneities in the simulated annual precipitation signal. The sign of this signal depends on the balance of decreased pre-monsoon and increased monsoon precipitation at mid-Holocene compared to present-day. Hence, rainfall changes in the East Asian monsoon domain are not solely associated with modifications in the summer monsoon circulation but also depend on changes in the mid-latitudinal westerly wind system that dominates the circulation during the pre-monsoon season. The proxy-based climate reconstructions confirm the regional dissimilarities in the annual precipitation signal and agree well with the model results. Our results highlight the importance of including the pre-monsoon season in climate studies of the Asian monsoon system and point out the complex response of this system to the Holocene insolation forcing. The comparison with a coarse climate model simulation reveals that this complex response can only be resolved in high resolution simulations.
Ostracodes (Ostracoda, Crustacea) are aquatic micro-crustaceans with a significant representation in the fossil record. If the environmental influence on the species composition of their communities is robustly quantified, past changes in ostracode communities reflected in fossil assemblages can be used for paleo-environmental reconstruction. We analyzed ostracode assemblages in recently deposited surface sediments from 56 lakes in western and central Mongolia, and simultaneously recorded local water chemistry and solute concentration in order to elucidate the distribution of individual ostracode species in relation to these broad environmental gradients. Multivariate analysis indicated that the species variation in ostracode assemblages could be mainly attributed to variations in percent calcium (%Ca) relative to total cation content, mean annual precipitation, calcium concentration, alkalinity, percent bicarbonate relative to total anion content, and mean July temperature. This matches well with the results of a similar analysis on presence/absence data of living ostracodes in nearshore samples, even though some differences exist between the faunal composition of both datasets. The documented response of ostracode species to environmental variation tracks the typical solute evolutionary pathway for surface waters in this region, characterized by calcite precipitation and consequent depletion in dissolved calcium. Hence, the best quantitative inference model (WA-PLS model with R-jack(2) = 0.70, RMSEP = 0.40) for paleolimnological application was obtained for %Ca. Comparison between this model and a specific conductance (SC) inference model based on the same dataset, and based on ostracode datasets from different regions, indicated that the %Ca inference model suffers less than the SC inference model from a step-change in reconstructed values. The statistical power of different inference models based on Mongolian ostracodes are variously affected by the common dominance of a single euryhaline species (Limnocythere inopinata), limited faunal turnover in the freshwater portion of the salinity gradient, and the bimodal frequency distribution of SC among regional lakes. The latter probably represents true scarcity of lakes with intermediate salinity rather than a biased representation in our dataset. In a broader context of ostracode ecology, and with respect to regional paleolimnological applications, we highlight the potential of fossil Mongolian ostracode assemblages to trace past hydrological shifts associated with changes in groundwater inflow.
Late Holocene glacier variations in westernmost Tibetan Plateau were studied based on the analysis of grain size, magnetic susceptibility, and elements from an 8.3m long distal glaciolacustrine sediment core of Kalakuli Lake. Our results show that there are four glacier expansion episodes occurring in 4200-3700calibrated years (cal years) B.P., 2950-2300cal years B.P., 1700-1070cal years B.P., and 570-100cal years B.P. and four glacier retreat periods of 3700-2950cal years B.P., 2300-1700cal years B.P., 1070-570cal years B.P., and 50cal years B.P.-present. The four glacier expansion episodes are generally in agreement with the glacier activities indicted by the moraines at Muztagh Ata and Kongur Shan, as well as with the late Holocene ice-rafting events in the North Atlantic. Over the last 2000years, our reconstructed glacier variations are in temporal agreement with reconstructed temperature from China and the Northern Hemisphere, indicating that glacier variations at centennial time scales are very sensitive to temperature in western Tibetan Plateau.
This study examines the course and driving forces of recent vegetation change in the Mongolian steppe. A sediment core covering the last 55years from a small closed-basin lake in central Mongolia was analyzed for its multi-proxy record at annual resolution. Pollen analysis shows that highest abundances of planted Poaceae and highest vegetation diversity occurred during 1977-1992, reflecting agricultural development in the lake area. A decrease in diversity and an increase in Artemisia abundance after 1992 indicate enhanced vegetation degradation in recent times, most probably because of overgrazing and farmland abandonment. Human impact is the main factor for the vegetation degradation within the past decades as revealed by a series of redundancy analyses, while climate change and soil erosion play subordinate roles. High Pediastrum (a green algae) influx, high atomic total organic carbon/total nitrogen (TOC/TN) ratios, abundant coarse detrital grains, and the decrease of C-13(org) and N-15 since about 1977 but particularly after 1992 indicate that abundant terrestrial organic matter and nutrients were transported into the lake and caused lake eutrophication, presumably because of intensified land use. Thus, we infer that the transition to a market economy in Mongolia since the early 1990s not only caused dramatic vegetation degradation but also affected the lake ecosystem through anthropogenic changes in the catchment area.
AimFossil pollen spectra from lake sediments in central and western Mongolia have been used to interpret past climatic variations, but hitherto no suitable modern pollen-climate calibration set has been available to infer past climate changes quantitatively. We established such a modern pollen dataset and used it to develop a transfer function model that we applied to a fossil pollen record in order to investigate: (1) whether there was a significant moisture response to the Younger Dryas event in north-western Mongolia; and (2) whether the early Holocene was characterized by dry or wet climatic conditions.
LocationCentral and western Mongolia.
MethodsWe analysed pollen data from surface sediments from 90 lakes. A transfer function for mean annual precipitation (P-ann) was developed with weighted averaging partial least squares regression (WA-PLS) and applied to a fossil pollen record from Lake Bayan Nuur (49.98 degrees N, 93.95 degrees E, 932m a.s.l.). Statistical approaches were used to investigate the modern pollen-climate relationships and assess model performance and reconstruction output.
ResultsRedundancy analysis shows that the modern pollen spectra are characteristic of their respective vegetation types and local climate. Spatial autocorrelation and significance tests of environmental variables show that the WA-PLS model for P-ann is the most valid function for our dataset, and possesses the lowest root mean squared error of prediction.
Main conclusionsPrecipitation is the most important predictor of pollen and vegetation distributions in our study area. Our quantitative climate reconstruction indicates a dry Younger Dryas, a relatively dry early Holocene, a wet mid-Holocene and a dry late Holocene.
Pollen records from large lakes have been used for quantitative palaeoclimate reconstruction, but the influences that lake size (as a result of species-specific variations in pollen dispersal patterns that smaller pollen grains are more easily transported to lake centre) and taphonomy have on these climatic signals have not previously been systematically investigated. We introduce the concept of pollen source area to pollen-based climate calibration using the north-eastern Tibetan Plateau as our study area. We present a pollen data set collected from large lakes in the arid to semi-arid region of central Asia. The influences that lake size and the inferred pollen source areas have on pollen compositions have been investigated through comparisons with pollen assemblages in neighbouring lakes of various sizes. Modern pollen samples collected from different parts of Lake Donggi Cona (in the north-eastern part of the Tibetan Plateau) reveal variations in pollen assemblages within this large lake, which are interpreted in terms of the species-specific dispersal and depositional patterns for different types of pollen, and in terms of fluvial input components. We have estimated the pollen source area for each lake individually and used this information to infer modern climate data with which to then develop a modern calibration data set, using both the multivariate regression tree (MRT) and weighted-averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS) approaches. Fossil pollen data from Lake Donggi Cona have been used to reconstruct the climate history of the north-eastern part of the Tibetan Plateau since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The meanannual precipitation was quantitatively reconstructed using WA-PLS: extremely dry conditions are found to have dominated the LGM, with annual precipitation of around 100 mm, which is only 32% of present-day precipitation. A gradually increasing trend in moisture conditions during the Late Glacial is terminated by an abrupt reversion to a dry phase that lasts for about 1000 yr and coincides with "Heinrich event 1" in the North Atlantic region. Subsequent periods corresponding to the Bolling/Allerod interstadial, with annual precipitation (P-ann) of about 350 mm, and the Younger Dryas event (about 270 mm P-ann) are followed by moist conditions in the early Holocene, with annual precipitation of up to 400 mm. A drier trend after 9 cal. ka BP is followed by a second wet phase in the middle Holocene, lasting until 4.5 cal. ka BP. Relatively steady conditions with only slight fluctuations then dominate the late Holocene, resulting in the present climatic conditions. The climate changes since the LGM have been primarily driven by deglaciation and fluctuations in the intensity of the Asian summer monsoon that resulted from changes in the Northern Hemisphere summer solar insolation, as well as from changes in the North Atlantic climate through variations in the circulation patterns and intensity of the westerlies.
The first 1400-year floating varve chronology for north-eastern Germany covering the late Allered to the early Holocene has been established by microscopic varve counts from the Rehwiese palaeolake sediment record. The Laacher See Tephra (LST), at the base of the studied interval, forms the tephrochronological anchor point. The fine laminations were examined using a combination of micro-facies and mu XRF analyses and are typical of calcite varves, which in this case provide mainly a warm season signal. Two varve types with different sub-layer structures have been distinguished: (I) complex varves consisting of up to four seasonal sub-layers formed during the Allered and early Holocene periods, and, (II) simple two sub-layer type varves only occurring during the Younger Dryas. The precision of the chronology has been improved by varve-to-varve comparison of two independently analyzed sediment profiles based on well-defined micro-marker layers. This has enabled both (1) the precise location of single missing varies in one of the sediment profiles, and, (2) the verification of varve interpolation in disturbed varve intervals in the parallel core. Inter-annual and decadal-scale variability in sediment deposition processes were traced by multi-proxy data series including seasonal layer thickness, high-resolution element scans and total organic and inorganic carbon data at a five-varve resolution. These data support the idea of a two-phase Younger Dryas, with the first interval (12,675-12,275 varve years BP) characterised by a still significant but gradually decreasing warm-season calcite precipitation and a second phase (12,275-11,690 varve years BP) with only weak calcite precipitation. Detailed correlation of these two phases with the Meerfelder Maar record based on the LST isochrone and independent varve counts provides clues about regional differences and seasonal aspects of YD climate change along a transect from a location proximal to the North Atlantic in the west to a more continental site in the east
Numerous pollen records across the upper Tibetan Plateau indicate that in the early part of the mid-Holocene, Kobresia-rich high-alpine meadows invaded areas formerly dominated by alpine steppe vegetation rich in Artemisia. We examine climate, land-use, and CO2 concentration changes as potential drivers for this marked vegetation change. The climatic implications of these vegetational shifts are explored by applying a newly developed pollen-based moisture-balance transfer-function to fossil pollen spectra from Koucha Lake on the north-eastern Tibetan Plateau (34.0 degrees N; 97.2 degrees E; 4540 m a.s.l.) and Xuguo Lake on the central Tibetan Plateau (31.97 degrees N; 90.3 degrees E; 4595 m a.s.l.), both located in the meadow-steppe transition zone. Reconstructed moisture-balances were markedly reduced (by similar to 150-180 mm) during the early mid-Holocene compared to the late-Holocene. These findings contradict most other records from the Indian monsoonal realm and also most non-pollen records from the Tibetan Plateau that indicate a rather wet early- and mid-Holocene. The extent and timing of anthropogenic land-use involving grazing by large herbivores on the upper Tibetan Plateau and its possible impacts on high-alpine vegetation are still mostly unknown due to the lack of relevant archaeological evidence. Arguments against a mainly anthropogenic origin of Kobresia high-alpine meadows are the discovery of the widespread expansion of obviously 'natural' Kobresia meadows on the south-eastern Tibetan Plateau during the Lateglacial period indicating the natural origin of this vegetation type and the lack of any concurrence between modern human-driven vegetation shifts and the mid-Holocene compositional changes. Vegetation types are known to respond to atmospheric CO2 concentration changes, at least on glacial-interglacial scales. This assumption is confirmed by our sensitivity study where we model Tibetan vegetation at different CO2 concentrations of 375 (present-day), 260 (early Holocene), and 650 ppm (future scenario) using the BIOME4 global vegetation model. Previous experimental studies confirm that vegetation growing on dry and high sites is particularly sensitive to CO2 changes. Here we propose that the replacement of drought-resistant alpine steppes (that are well adapted to low CO2 concentrations) by mesic Kobresia meadows can, at least, be partly interpreted as a response to the increase of CO2 concentration since 7000 years ago due to fertilization and water-saving effects. Our hypothesis is corroborated by former CO2 fertilization experiments performed on various dry grasslands and by the strong recent expansion of high-alpine meadows documented by remote sensing studies in response to recent CO2 increases.
A general mean annual temperature increase accompanied with substantial glacial retreat has been noted on the Tibetan Plateau during the last two centuries but most significantly since the mid 1950s. These climate trends are particularly apparent on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. However, the Tibetan Plateau (due to its heterogeneous mountain landscape) has very complex and spatially differing temperature and precipitations patterns. As a result, intensive palaeolimnological investigations are necessary to decipher these climatic patterns and to understand ecological responses to recent environmental change. Here we present palaeolimnological results from a (210)Pb/(137)Cs-dated sediment core spanning approximately the last 200 years from a remote high-mountain lake (LC6 Lake, working name) on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. Sediment profiles of diatoms, organic variables (TOC, C:N) and grain size were investigated. The (210)Pb record suggests a period of rapid sedimentation, which might be linked to major tectonic events in the region ca. 1950. Furthermore, unusually high (210)Pb supply rates over the last 50 years suggest that the lake has possibly been subjected to increasing precipitation rates, sediment focussing and/or increased spring thaw. The majority of diatom taxa encountered in the core are typical of slightly acidic to circumneutral, oligotrophic, electrolyte-poor lakes. Diatom species assemblages were rich, and dominated by Cyclotella sp., Achnanthes sp., Aulacoseira sp. and fragilarioid taxa. Diatom compositional change was minimal over the 200-year period (DCCA = 0.85 SD, p = 0.59); only a slightly more diverse but unstable diatom assemblage was recorded during the past 50 years. The results indicate that large-scale environmental changes recorded in the twentieth century (i.e. increased precipitation and temperatures) are likely having an affect on the LC6 Lake, but so far these impacts are more apparent on the lake geochemistry than on the diatom flora. Local and/or regional peculiarities, such as increasing precipitation and cloud cover, or localized climatic phenomena, such as negative climate feedbacks, might have offset the effects of increasing mean surface temperatures.
Simulating biome distribution on the Tibetan Plateau using a modified global vegetation model
(2011)
We used a regionally modified global vegetation model (BIOME4-Tibet) to simulate biome distribution on the Tibetan Plateau under current climate conditions derived from regional meteorological observations. The bioclimatic limits (mean temperatures of the coldest and warmest months, minimum temperature, growing degree-days on 5 degrees C and 0 degrees C bases) for some key alpine plant functional types (temperate deciduous and conifer trees, boreal deciduous and conifer trees, desert woody plants, tundra shrubs, cold herbaceous plants, and lichens/forbs) were redefined based on regional vegetation-climate relationships. Modern vegetation maps confirmed that the BIOME4-Tibet model does a better job of simulating biome patterns on the plateau (gridcell agreement 52%) than the original BIOME4 model (35%). This improved model enhanced our ability to simulate temperate conifer forest, cool conifer and mixed forest, evergreen taiga, temperate xerophytic shrubland, temperate grassland and desert, and steppe and shrub tundra biomes, but made a negligible or reduced difference to the prediction of temperate deciduous forest, warm-temperate mixed forest, and three tundra biomes (erect dwarf-shrub tundra, prostrate dwarf-shrub tundra, and cushion forb, lichen, and moss tundra). Future modification of the vegetation model, by increasing the number of shrub and herb plant functional types, re-parameterization of more precise bioclimatic constraints, and improved representation of soil, permafrost, and snow processes, will be needed to better characterize the distribution of alpine vegetation on the Tibetan Plateau.
Inorganic minerals form a major component of lacustrine sediments and have the potential to reveal detailed information on previous climatic and hydrological conditions. The ability to extract such information however, has been restricted by a limited understanding of the relationships between minerals and the environment. In an attempt to fill in this gap in our knowledge, 146 surface sediment samples have been investigated from 146 lakes on the Tibetan Plateau. The mineral compositions derived from these samples by X-Ray Diffraction (XRD) were used to examine the relationships between mineral compositions and the environmental variables determined for each site. Statistical techniques including Multivariate regression trees (MRT) and Redundancy Analysis (RDA), based on the mineral spectra and environmental variables, reveal that the electrical conductivity (EC) and Mg/Ca ratios of lake water are the most important controls on the composition of endogenic minerals. No endogenic minerals precipitate under hyper-fresh water conditions (EC lower than 0.13 mS/cm), with calcite commonly forming in water with EC values above 0.13 mS/cm. Between EC values of 0.13 and 26 mS/cm the mineral composition of lake sediments can be explained in terms of variations in the Mg/Ca ratio: calcite dominates at Mg/Ca ratios of less than 33, whereas aragonite commonly forms when the ratio is greater than 33. Where EC values are between 26 and 39 mS/cm, monohydrocalcite precipitates together with calcite and aragonite; above 39 mS/cm, gypsum and halite commonly form. Information on the local geological strata indicates that allogenic (detrital) mineral compositions are primarily influenced by the bedrock compositions within the catchment area. By applying these relationships to the late glacial and Holocene mineral record from Chaka Salt Lake, five lake stages have been identified and their associated EC conditions inferred. The lake evolved from a freshwater lake during the late glacial (before 11.4 cal. ka BP) represented by the lowest EC values (< 0.13 mS/cm), to a saline lake with EC values slightly higher than 39 mS/cm during the early and mid Holocene (ca. 11.4-5.3 cal. ka BP), and finally to a salt lake (after 5.3 cal. ka BP). These results illustrate the utility of our mineral-environmental model for the quantitative reconstruction of past environmental conditions from lake sediment records.
A modern pollen dataset from China and Mongolia (18-52 degrees N, 74-132 degrees E) is investigated for its potential use in climate reconstructions. The dataset includes 2559 samples, 229 terrestrial pollen taxa and four climatic variables - mean annual precipitation (P-ann): 35-2091 mm, mean annual temperature (T-ann): -12.1-25.8 degrees C, mean temperature in the coldest month (Mt(co).): -33.8-21.7 degrees C, and mean temperature in the warmest month (Mt(wa)): 03-29.8 degrees C. Modern pollen-climate relationships are assessed using canonical correspondence analysis (CCA), Huisman-Olff-Fresco (HOF) models, the modern analogue technique (MAT), and weighted averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS). Results indicate that P-ann is the most important climatic determinant of pollen distribution and the most promising climate variable for reconstructions, as assessed by the coefficient of determination between observed and predicted environmental values (r(2)) and root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP). Mt(co) and Mt(wa) may be reconstructed too, but with caution. Samples from different depositional environments influence the performance of cross-validation differently, with samples from lake sediment-surfaces and moss polsters having the best fit with the lowest RMSEP. The better model performances of MAT are most probably caused by spatial autocorrelation. Accordingly, the WA-PLS models of this dataset are deemed most suitable for reconstructing past climate quantitatively because of their more reliable predictive power. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
The Tibetan Plateau is a region that is highly sensitive to recent global warming, but the complexity and heterogeneity of its mountainous landscape can result in variable responses. In addition, the scarcity and brevity of regional instrumental and palaeoecological records still hamper our understanding of past and present patterns of environmental change. To investigate how the remote, high-alpine environments of the Nianbaoyeze Mountains, eastern Tibetan Plateau, are affected by climate change and human activity over the last similar to 600 years, we compared regional tree-ring studies with pollen and diatom remains archived in the dated sediments of Dongerwuka Lake (33.22A degrees N, 101.12A degrees E, 4,307 m a.s.l.). In agreement with previous studies from the eastern Tibetan Plateau, a strong coherence between our two juniper-based tree-ring chronologies from the Nianbaoyeze and the Anemaqin Mountains was observed, with pronounced cyclical variations in summer temperature reconstructions. A positive directional trend to warmer summer temperatures in the most recent decades, was, however, not observed in the tree-ring record. Likewise, our pollen and diatom spectra showed minimal change over the investigated time period. Although modest, the most notable change in the diatom relative abundances was a subtle decrease in the dominant planktonic Cyclotella ocellata and a concurrent increase in small, benthic fragilarioid taxa in the similar to 1820s, suggesting higher ecosystem variability. The pollen record subtly indicates three periods of increased cattle grazing activity (similar to 1400-1480 AD, similar to 1630-1760 AD, after 1850 AD), but shows generally no significant vegetation changes during past similar to 600 years. The minimal changes observed in the tree-ring, diatom and pollen records are consistent with the presence of localised cooling centres that are evident in instrumental and tree-ring data within the southeastern and eastern Tibetan Plateau. Given the minor changes in regional temperature records, our complacent palaeoecological profiles suggest that climatically induced ecological thresholds have not yet been crossed in the Nianbaoyeze Mountains region.
(Paleo-)climatologists are challenged to identify mechanisms that cause the observed abrupt Holocene monsoon events despite the fact that monsoonal circulation is assumed to be driven by gradual insolation changes. Here we provide proxy and model evidence to show that moisture-advection feedback can lead to a non-linear relationship between sea-surface and continental temperatures and monsoonal precipitation. A pollen record from Lake Ximencuo (Nianbaoyeze Mountains) indicates that vegetation from the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau was characterized by alpine deserts and glacial flora after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21-15.5 cal kyr BP), by alpine meadows during the Late Glacial (15.5-10.4 cal kyr BP) and second half of the Holocene (5.0 cal kyr BP to present) and by mixed forests during the first half of the Holocene (10.4-5.0 cal kyr BP). The application of pollen-based transfer functions yields an abrupt temperature increase at 10.4 cal kyr BP and a decrease at 5.0 cal kyr BP of about 3 degrees C. By applying endmember modeling to grain-size data from the same sediment core we infer that frequent fluvial events (probably originating from high-magnitude precipitation events) were more common in the early and mid Holocene. We assign the inferred exceptional strong monsoonal circulation to the initiation of moisture-advection feedback, a result supported by a simple model that reproduces this feedback pattern over the same time period. (C) 2014 Published by Elsevier B.V.
Temporally changing drivers for late-Holocene vegetation changes on the northern Tibetan Plateau
(2012)
Fossil pollen records have been widely used as indicators of past changes in vegetation and variations in climate. The driving mechanisms behind these vegetation changes have, however, remained unclear. In order to evaluate vegetation changes that have occurred in the northern part of the Tibetan Plateau and the possible drivers behind these changes, we have applied a moving-window Redundancy Analysis (RDA) to high resolution (10-15 years) pollen and sedimentary data from Lake Kusai covering the last 3770 years. Our analyses reveal frequent fluctuations in the relative abundances of alpine steppe and alpine desert components. The sedimentary proxies (including total organic carbon content, total inorganic carbon content, and "end-member" indices from grain-size analyses) that explain statistically some of the changes in the pollen assemblage vary significantly with time, most probably reflecting multiple underlying driving processes. Climate appears to have had an important influence on vegetation changes when conditions were relatively wet and stable. However, a gradual decrease in vegetation cover was identified after 1500 cal a BP, after which the vegetation appears to have been affected more by extreme events such as dust-storms or fluvial erosion than by general climatic trends. Furthermore, pollen spectra over the last 600 years are shown by Procrustes analysis to be statistically different from those recovered from older samples, which we attribute to increased human impact that resulted in unprecedented changes to the vegetation composition. Overall, changes in vegetation and climate on the northern part of the Tibetan Plateau appear to have roughly followed the evolution of the Asian Summer Monsoon. After taking into account the highly significant millennial (1512 years) periodicity revealed by time-series analysis, the regional vegetation and climate changes also show variations that appear to match variations in the mid-latitude westerlies.