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Earthquakes occurring close to hydrocarbon fields under production are often under critical view of being induced or triggered. However, clear and testable rules to discriminate the different events have rarely been developed and tested. The unresolved scientific problem may lead to lengthy public disputes with unpredictable impact on the local acceptance of the exploitation and field operations. We propose a quantitative approach to discriminate induced, triggered, and natural earthquakes, which is based on testable input parameters. Maxima of occurrence probabilities are compared for the cases under question, and a single probability of being triggered or induced is reported. The uncertainties of earthquake location and other input parameters are considered in terms of the integration over probability density functions. The probability that events have been human triggered/induced is derived from the modeling of Coulomb stress changes and a rate and state-dependent seismicity model. In our case a 3-D boundary element method has been adapted for the nuclei of strain approach to estimate the stress changes outside the reservoir, which are related to pore pressure changes in the field formation. The predicted rate of natural earthquakes is either derived from the background seismicity or, in case of rare events, from an estimate of the tectonic stress rate. Instrumentally derived seismological information on the event location, source mechanism, and the size of the rupture plane is of advantage for the method. If the rupture plane has been estimated, the discrimination between induced or only triggered events is theoretically possible if probability functions are convolved with a rupture fault filter. We apply the approach to three recent main shock events: (1) the M-w 4.3 Ekofisk 2001, North Sea, earthquake close to the Ekofisk oil field; (2) the M-w 4.4 Rotenburg 2004, Northern Germany, earthquake in the vicinity of the Sohlingen gas field; and (3) the M-w 6.1 Emilia 2012, Northern Italy, earthquake in the vicinity of a hydrocarbon reservoir. The three test cases cover the complete range of possible causes: clearly human induced, not even human triggered, and a third case in between both extremes.
We develop an amplitude spectral ratio method for event couples from clustered earthquakes to estimate seismic wave attenuation (Q-1) in the source volume. The method allows to study attenuation within the source region of earthquake swarms or aftershocks at depth, independent of wave path and attenuation between source region and surface station. We exploit the high-frequency slope of phase spectra using multitaper spectral estimates. The method is tested using simulated full wave-field seismograms affected by recorded noise and finite source rupture. The synthetic tests verify the approach and show that solutions are independent of focal mechanisms but also show that seismic noise may broaden the scatter of results. We apply the event couple spectral ratio method to northwest Bohemia, Czech Republic, a region characterized by the persistent occurrence of earthquake swarms in a confined source region at mid-crustal depth. Our method indicates a strong anomaly of high attenuation in the source region of the swarm with an averaged attenuation factor of Qp < 100. The application to S phases fails due to scattered P-phase energy interfering with S phases. The Qp anomaly supports the common hypothesis of highly fractured and fluid saturated rocks in the source region of the swarms in northwest Bohemia. However, high temperatures in a small volume around the swarms cannot be excluded to explain our observations.
We develop an amplitude spectral ratio method for event couples from clustered earthquakes to estimate seismic wave attenuation (Q-1) in the source volume. The method allows to study attenuation within the source region of earthquake swarms or aftershocks at depth, independent of wave path and attenuation between source region and surface station. We exploit the high-frequency slope of phase spectra using multitaper spectral estimates. The method is tested using simulated full wave-field seismograms affected by recorded noise and finite source rupture. The synthetic tests verify the approach and show that solutions are independent of focal mechanisms but also show that seismic noise may broaden the scatter of results. We apply the event couple spectral ratio method to northwest Bohemia, Czech Republic, a region characterized by the persistent occurrence of earthquake swarms in a confined source region at mid-crustal depth. Our method indicates a strong anomaly of high attenuation in the source region of the swarm with an averaged attenuation factor of Qp < 100. The application to S phases fails due to scattered P-phase energy interfering with S phases. The Qp anomaly supports the common hypothesis of highly fractured and fluid saturated rocks in the source region of the swarms in northwest Bohemia. However, high temperatures in a small volume around the swarms cannot be excluded to explain our observations.