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This paper extends the multilevel Monte Carlo variance reduction technique to nonlinear filtering. In particular, multilevel Monte Carlo is applied to a certain variant of the particle filter, the ensemble transform particle filter (EPTF). A key aspect is the use of optimal transport methods to re-establish correlation between coarse and fine ensembles after resampling; this controls the variance of the estimator. Numerical examples present a proof of concept of the effectiveness of the proposed method, demonstrating significant computational cost reductions (relative to the single-level ETPF counterpart) in the propagation of ensembles.
P-wave polarization at the Grafenberg array (GRF) in southern Germany is analysed in terms of azimuthal deviations and deviations in the vertical polarization using 20 yr of broad-band recordings. An automated procedure for estimating P-wave polarization parameters is suggested, based on the definition of a characteristic function, which evaluates the polarization angles and their time variability as well as the amplitude, linearity and the signal-to-noise ratio of the P wave. P-wave polarization at the GRF array is shown to depend mainly on frequency and backazimuth and only slightly on epicentral distance indicating depth-dependent local anisotropy and lateral heterogeneity. A harmonic analysis is applied to the azimuthal anomalies to analyse their periodicity as a function of backazimuth. The dominant periods are 180A degrees A and 360A degrees. At low frequencies, between 0.03 and 0.1 Hz, the observed fast directions of azimuthal anisotropy inferred from the 180A degrees A periodicity are similar across the array. The average fast direction of azimuthal anisotropy at these frequencies is N20A degrees E with an uncertainty of about 8A degrees A and is consistent with fast directions of Pn-wave propagation. Lateral velocity gradients determined for the low-frequency band are compatible with the Moho topography of the area. A more complex pattern in the horizontal fast axis orientation beneath the GRF array is observed in the high-frequency band between 0.1 and 0.5 Hz, and is attributed to anisotropy in the upper crust. A remarkable rotation of the horizontal fast axis orientation across the suture between the geological units Moldanubicum and Saxothuringicum is observed. In contrast, the 360A degrees A periodicity at high frequencies is rather consistent across the array and may either point to lower velocities in the upper crust towards the Bohemian Massif and/or to anisotropy dipping predominantly in the NE-SW direction. Altogether, P-wave polarization analysis indicates the presence of layered lithospheric anisotropy in the area of the GRF array. Seismic anisotropy is more variable in the brittle upper crust compared to lower crustal and subcrustal depths.
Air pollution is the number one environmental cause of premature deaths in Europe. Despite extensive regulations, air pollution remains a challenge, especially in urban areas. For studying summertime air quality in the Berlin–Brandenburg region of Germany, the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) is set up and evaluated against meteorological and air quality observations from monitoring stations as well as from a field campaign conducted in 2014. The objective is to assess which resolution and level of detail in the input data is needed for simulating urban background air pollutant concentrations and their spatial distribution in the Berlin–Brandenburg area. The model setup includes three nested domains with horizontal resolutions of 15, 3 and 1 km and anthropogenic emissions from the TNO-MACC III inventory. We use RADM2 chemistry and the MADE/SORGAM aerosol scheme. Three sensitivity simulations are conducted updating input parameters to the single-layer urban canopy model based on structural data for Berlin, specifying land use classes on a sub-grid scale (mosaic option) and downscaling the original emissions to a resolution of ca. 1 km × 1 km for Berlin based on proxy data including traffic density and population density. The results show that the model simulates meteorology well, though urban 2 m temperature and urban wind speeds are biased high and nighttime mixing layer height is biased low in the base run with the settings described above. We show that the simulation of urban meteorology can be improved when specifying the input parameters to the urban model, and to a lesser extent when using the mosaic option. On average, ozone is simulated reasonably well, but maximum daily 8 h mean concentrations are underestimated, which is consistent with the results from previous modelling studies using the RADM2 chemical mechanism. Particulate matter is underestimated, which is partly due to an underestimation of secondary organic aerosols. NOx (NO + NO2) concentrations are simulated reasonably well on average, but nighttime concentrations are overestimated due to the model's underestimation of the mixing layer height, and urban daytime concentrations are underestimated. The daytime underestimation is improved when using downscaled, and thus locally higher emissions, suggesting that part of this bias is due to deficiencies in the emission input data and their resolution. The results further demonstrate that a horizontal resolution of 3 km improves the results and spatial representativeness of the model compared to a horizontal resolution of 15 km. With the input data (land use classes, emissions) at the level of detail of the base run of this study, we find that a horizontal resolution of 1 km does not improve the results compared to a resolution of 3 km. However, our results suggest that a 1 km horizontal model resolution could enable a detailed simulation of local pollution patterns in the Berlin–Brandenburg region if the urban land use classes, together with the respective input parameters to the urban canopy model, are specified with a higher level of detail and if urban emissions of higher spatial resolution are used.
Background. The bay cat Catopuma badia is endemic to Borneo, whereas its sister species the Asian golden cat Catopuma temminckii is distributed from the Himalayas and southern China through Indochina, Peninsular Malaysia and Sumatra. Based onmorphological data, up to five subspecies of the Asian golden cat have been recognized, but a taxonomic assessment, including molecular data and morphological characters, is still lacking. Results. We combined molecular data (whole mitochondrial genomes), morphological data (pelage) and species distribution projections (up to the Late Pleistocene) to infer how environmental changes may have influenced the distribution of these sister species over the past 120 000 years. The molecular analysis was based on sequenced mitogenomes of 3 bay cats and 40 Asian golden cats derived mainly from archival samples. Our molecular data suggested a time of split between the two species approximately 3.16 Ma and revealed very low nucleotide diversity within the Asian golden cat population, which supports recent expansion of the population. Discussion. The low nucleotide diversity suggested a population bottleneck in the Asian golden cat, possibly caused by the eruption of the Toba volcano in Northern Sumatra (approx. 74 kya), followed by a continuous population expansion in the Late Pleistocene/Early Holocene. Species distribution projections, the reconstruction of the demographic history, a genetic isolation-by-distance pattern and a gradual variation of pelage pattern support the hypothesis of a post-Toba population expansion of the Asian golden cat from south China/Indochina to PeninsularMalaysia and Sumatra. Our findings reject the current classification of five subspecies for the Asian golden cat, but instead support either a monotypic species or one comprising two subspecies: (i) the Sunda golden cat, distributed south of the Isthmus of Kra: C. t. temminckii and (ii) Indochinese, Indian, Himalayan and Chinese golden cats, occurring north of the Isthmus: C. t. moormensis.
We present new experimental data of the low-temperature metastable region of liquid water derived from high-density synthetic fluid inclusions (996-916 kg m(-3)) in quartz. Microthermometric measurements include: (i) prograde (upon heating) and retrograde (upon cooling) liquid-vapour homogenisation. We used single ultrashort laser pulses to stimulate vapour bubble nucleation in initially monophase liquid inclusions. Water densities were calculated based on prograde homogenisation temperatures using the IAPWS-95 formulation. We found retrograde liquid-vapour homogenisation temperatures in excellent agreement with IAPWS-95. (ii) Retrograde ice nucleation. Raman spectroscopy was used to determine the nucleation of ice in the absence of the vapour bubble. Our ice nucleation data in the doubly metastable region are inconsistent with the low-temperature trend of the spinodal predicted by IAPWS-95, as liquid water with a density of 921 kg m(-3) remains in a homogeneous state during cooling down to a temperature of -30.5 degrees C, where it is transformed into ice whose density corresponds to zero pressure. (iii) Ice melting. Ice melting temperatures of up to 6.8 degrees C were measured in the absence of the vapour bubble, i.e. in the negative pressure region. (iv) Spontaneous retrograde and, for the first time, prograde vapour bubble nucleation. Prograde bubble nucleation occurred upon heating at temperatures above ice melting. The occurrence of prograde and retrograde vapour bubble nucleation in the same inclusions indicates a maximum of the bubble nucleation curve in the R-T plane at around 40 degrees C. The new experimental data represent valuable benchmarks to evaluate and further improve theoretical models describing the p-V-T properties of metastable water in the low-temperature region.
Species diversity is changing globally and locally, but the complexity of ecological communities hampers a general understanding of the consequences of animal species loss on ecosystem functioning. High animal diversity increases complementarity of herbivores but also increases feeding rates within the consumer guild. Depending on the balance of these counteracting mechanisms, species-rich animal communities may put plants under top-down control or may release them from grazing pressure. Using a dynamic food-web model with body-mass constraints, we simulate ecosystem functions of 20,000 communities of varying animal diversity. We show that diverse animal communities accumulate more biomass and are more exploitative on plants, despite their higher rates of intra-guild predation. However, they do not reduce plant biomass because the communities are composed of larger, and thus energetically more efficient, plant and animal species. This plasticity of community body-size structure reconciles the debate on the consequences of animal species loss for primary productivity.
Adaptation to physical activity and mental stress in the context of pain. Psychobiological aspects
(2016)
The genesis of chronic pain is predominantly explained by a multidimensional pain model approach that is based on the dysfunctional influence of biological, psychological and social variables as key risk factors inducing aberrant long-term changes. Biological facets comprise adaptation processes on the neuronal, musculoskeletal and (psycho) biological level that can be influenced by physical training or psychosocial factors, such as stress. These factors can play a causative role in developing dysfunctional adaptation mechanisms, which in turn prepare the biological ground to facilitate negative long-term changes in the peripheral and central nervous systems. Hence, these processes can be assumed to be fundamentally involved in the transition from acute to chronic and persistent pain. The aim of this review article is to discuss hypotheses for the genesis of chronic pain and possible treatment strategies. Selected research results about maladaptive processes in chronic pain due to psychological stress and physical activity are presented in order to inspire discussions about the ideal dose-response relationship of physical activity and the combination of different therapeutic concepts.
Deglaciation of Fennoscandia
(2016)
To provide a new reconstruction of the deglaciation of the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet, in the form of calendar-year time-slices, which are particularly useful for ice sheet modelling, we have compiled and synthesized published geomorphological data for eskers, ice-marginal formations, lineations, marginal meltwater channels, striae, ice-dammed lakes, and geochronological data from radiocarbon, varve, optically-stimulated luminescence, and cosmogenic nuclide dating. This is summarized as a deglaciation map of the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet with isochrons marking every 1000 years between 22 and 13 cal kyr BP and every hundred years between 11.6 and final ice decay after 9.7 cal kyr BP. Deglaciation patterns vary across the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet domain, reflecting differences in climatic and geomorphic settings as well as ice sheet basal thermal conditions and terrestrial versus marine margins. For example, the ice sheet margin in the high-precipitation coastal setting of the western sector responded sensitively to climatic variations leaving a detailed record of prominent moraines and other ice-marginal deposits in many fjords and coastal valleys. Retreat rates across the southern sector differed between slow retreat of the terrestrial margin in western and southern Sweden and rapid retreat of the calving ice margin in the Baltic Basin. Our reconstruction is consistent with much of the published research. However, the synthesis of a large amount of existing and new data support refined reconstructions in some areas. For example, the LGM extent of the ice sheet in northwestern Russia was located far east and it occurred at a later time than the rest of the ice sheet, at around 17-15 cal kyr BP. We also propose a slightly different chronology of moraine formation over southern Sweden based on improved correlations of moraine segments using new LiDAR data and tying the timing of moraine formation to Greenland ice core cold stages. Retreat rates vary by as much as an order of magnitude in different sectors of the ice sheet, with the lowest rates on the high-elevation and maritime Norwegian margin. Retreat rates compared to the climatic information provided by the Greenland ice core record show a general correspondence between retreat rate and climatic forcing, although a close match between retreat rate and climate is unlikely because of other controls, such as topography and marine versus terrestrial margins. Overall, the time slice reconstructions of Fennoscandian Ice Sheet deglaciation from 22 to 9.7 cal kyr BP provide an important dataset for understanding the contexts that underpin spatial and temporal patterns in retreat of the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet, and are an important resource for testing and refining ice sheet models. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
In this study, the stable conformers of neutral anserine were searched by molecular dynamics simulations and energy minimization calculations using the MM2 force field. Thermochemical calculations at B3LYP/6-31G(d) level of theory followed these preliminary calculations. The results confirmed that neutral anserine has quite a flexible structure and many stable gauche and trans conformers at room temperature. Nevertheless, two are considerably more favourable in energy than the others and expected to dominate the gas-phase and matrix IR spectra of the molecule. The corresponding structural and vibrational spectral data for these two conformers of neutral anserine, whose relative stabilities were also examined by high-accuracy energy calculations carried out using G3MP2B3 method, and for the most stable conformer of anserine in zwitterion form were calculated at B3LYP/6-311++G(d,p) level of theory. The calculated harmonic force constants were refined using the Scaled Quantum Mechanical Force Field (SQM-FF) method and then used to produce the refined wavenumbers, potential energy distributions (PEDs) and IR and Raman intensities. These refined data together with the scaled harmonic wavenumbers obtained using another method, Dual Scale factors (DS), enabled us to correctly analyse the observed IR and Raman spectra of anserine and revealed the effects of conformation and zwitterionic tautomerism on its structural and vibrational spectral data. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.