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We analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of seismicity during a sequence of moderate (an M-w 4.7 foreshock and M-w 5.8 mainshock) earthquakes occurring in September 2019 at the transition between a creeping and a locked segment of the North Anatolian fault in the central Sea of Marmara, northwest Turkey. To investigate in detail the seismicity evolution, we apply a matched-filter technique to continuous waveforms, thus reducing the magnitude threshold for detection. Sequences of foreshocks preceding the two largest events are clearly seen, exhibiting two different behaviors: a long-term activation of the seismicity along the entire fault segment and a short-term concentration around the epicenters of the large events. We suggest a two-scale preparation phase, with aseismic slip preparing the mainshock final rupture a few days before, and a cascade mechanism leading to the nucleation of the mainshock. Thus, our study shows a combination of seismic and aseismic slip during the foreshock sequence changing the strength of the fault, bringing it closer to failure.
Preparatory mechanisms accompanying or leading to nucleation of larger earthquakes have been observed at both laboratory and field scales, but conditions favoring the occurrence of observable preparatory processes are still largely unknown. In particular, it remains a matter of debate why some earthquakes occur spontaneously without noticeable precursors as opposed to events that are preceded by an extended failure process. In this study, we have generated new high-resolution seismicity catalogs framing the occurrence of 20 M-L > 2.5 earthquakes at The Geysers geothermal field in California. To this end, a seismicity catalog of the 11 days framing each large event was created. We selected 20 sequences sampling different hypocentral depths and hydraulic conditions within the field. Seismic activity and magnitude frequency distributions displayed by the different earthquake sequences are correlated with their location within the reservoir. Sequences located in the northwestern part of the reservoir show overall increased seismic activity and low b values, while the southeastern part is dominated by decreased seismic activity and higher b values. Periods of high injection coincide with high b values and vice versa. These observations potentially reflect varying differential and mean stresses and damage of the reservoir rocks across the field. About 50% of analyzed sequences exhibit no change in seismicity rate in response to the large main event. However, we find complex waveforms at the onset of the main earthquake, suggesting that small ruptures spontaneously grow into or trigger larger events.
Fault zones are the locations where motion of tectonic plates, often associated with earthquakes, is accommodated. Despite a rapid increase in the understanding of faults in the last decades, our knowledge of their geometry, petrophysical properties, and controlling processes remains incomplete. The central questions addressed here in our study of the Dead Sea Transform (DST) in the Middle East are as follows: (1) What are the structure and kinematics of a large fault zone? (2) What controls its structure and kinematics? (3) How does the DST compare to other plate boundary fault zones? The DST has accommodated a total of 105 km of left-lateral transform motion between the African and Arabian plates since early Miocene (similar to 20 Ma). The DST segment between the Dead Sea and the Red Sea, called the Arava/Araba Fault (AF), is studied here using a multidisciplinary and multiscale approach from the mu m to the plate tectonic scale. We observe that under the DST a narrow, subvertical zone cuts through crust and lithosphere. First, from west to east the crustal thickness increases smoothly from 26 to 39 km, and a subhorizontal lower crustal reflector is detected east of the AF. Second, several faults exist in the upper crust in a 40 km wide zone centered on the AF, but none have kilometer-size zones of decreased seismic velocities or zones of high electrical conductivities in the upper crust expected for large damage zones. Third, the AF is the main branch of the DST system, even though it has accommodated only a part (up to 60 km) of the overall 105 km of sinistral plate motion. Fourth, the AF acts as a barrier to fluids to a depth of 4 km, and the lithology changes abruptly across it. Fifth, in the top few hundred meters of the AF a locally transpressional regime is observed in a 100-300 m wide zone of deformed and displaced material, bordered by subparallel faults forming a positive flower structure. Other segments of the AF have a transtensional character with small pull-aparts along them. The damage zones of the individual faults are only 5-20 m wide at this depth range. Sixth, two areas on the AF show mesoscale to microscale faulting and veining in limestone sequences with faulting depths between 2 and 5 km. Seventh, fluids in the AF are carried downward into the fault zone. Only a minor fraction of fluids is derived from ascending hydrothermal fluids. However, we found that on the kilometer scale the AF does not act as an important fluid conduit. Most of these findings are corroborated using thermomechanical modeling where shear deformation in the upper crust is localized in one or two major faults; at larger depth, shear deformation occurs in a 20-40 km wide zone with a mechanically weak decoupling zone extending subvertically through the entire lithosphere.
We show that near-real-time seismic monitoring of fluid injection allowed control of induced earthquakes during the stimulation of a 6.1-km-deep geothermal well near Helsinki, Finland. A total of 18,160 m(3) of fresh water was pumped into crystalline rocks over 49 days in June to July 2018. Seismic monitoring was performed with a 24-station borehole seismometer network. Using near-real-time information on induced-earthquake rates, locations, magnitudes, and evolution of seismic and hydraulic energy, pumping was either stopped or varied-in the latter case, between well-head pressures of 60 and 90 MPa and flow rates of 400 and 800 liters/min. This procedure avoided the nucleation of a project-stopping magnitude M-W 2.0 induced earthquake, a limit set by local authorities. Our results suggest a possible physics-based approach to controlling stimulation-induced seismicity in geothermal projects.
The long-term temporal and spatial changes in statistical, source, and stress characteristics of one cluster of induced seismicity recorded at The Geysers geothermal field (U.S.) are analyzed in relation to the field operations, fluid migration, and constraints on the maximum likely magnitude. Two injection wells, Prati-9 and Prati-29, located in the northwestern part of the field and their associated seismicity composed of 1776 events recorded throughout a 7year period were analyzed. The seismicity catalog was relocated, and the source characteristics including focal mechanisms and static source parameters were refined using first-motion polarity, spectral fitting, and mesh spectral ratio analysis techniques. The source characteristics together with statistical parameters (b value) and cluster dynamics were used to investigate and understand the details of fluid migration scheme in the vicinity of injection wells. The observed temporal, spatial, and source characteristics were clearly attributed to fluid injection and fluid migration toward greater depths, involving increasing pore pressure in the reservoir. The seasonal changes of injection rates were found to directly impact the shape and spatial extent of the seismic cloud. A tendency of larger seismic events to occur closer to injection wells and a correlation between the spatial extent of the seismic cloud and source sizes of the largest events was observed suggesting geometrical constraints on the maximum likely magnitude and its correlation to the average injection rate and volume of fluids present in the reservoir.
Rotations of the principal stress axes are observed as a result of fluid injection into reservoirs. We use a generic, fully coupled 3-D thermo-hydro-mechanical model to investigate systematically the dependence of this stress rotation on different reservoir properties and injection scenarios. We find that permeability, injection rate, and initial differential stress are the key factors, while other reservoir properties only play a negligible role. In particular, we find that thermal effects do not significantly contribute to stress rotations. For reservoir types with usual differential stress and reservoir treatment the occurrence of significant stress rotations is limited to reservoirs with a permeability of less than approximately 10(-12)m(2). Higher permeability effectively prevents stress rotations to occur. Thus, according to these general findings, the observed principal stress axes rotation can be used as a proxy of the initial differential stress provided that rock permeability and fluid injection rate are known a priori.
Knowledge of pressure-dependent static and dynamic moduli of porous reservoir rocks is of key importance for evaluating geological setting of a reservoir in geo-energy applications. We examined experimentally the evolution of static and dynamic bulk moduli for porous Bentheim sandstone with increasing confining pressure up to about 190 MPa under dry and water-saturated conditions. The static bulk moduli (K-s) were estimated from stress-volumetric strain curves while dynamic bulk moduli (K-d) were derived from the changes in ultrasonic P- and S- wave velocities (similar to 1 MHz) along different traces, which were monitored simultaneously during the entire deformation. In conjunction with published data of other porous sandstones (Berea, Navajo and Weber sandstones), our results reveal that the ratio between dynamic and static bulk moduli (K-d/K-s) reduces rapidly from about 1.5 - 2.0 at ambient pressure to about 1.1 at high pressure under dry conditions and from about 2.0 - 4.0 to about 1.5 under water-saturated conditions, respectively. We interpret such a pressure-dependent reduction by closure of narrow (compliant) cracks, highlighting thatK(d)/K(s)is positively correlated with the amount of narrow cracks. Above the crack closure pressure, where equant (stiff) pores dominate the void space,K-d/K(s)is almost constant. The enhanced difference between dynamic and static bulk moduli under water saturation compared to dry conditions is possibly caused by high pore pressure that is locally maintained if measured using high-frequency ultrasonic wave velocities. In our experiments, the pressure dependence of dynamic bulk modulus of water-saturated Bentheim sandstone at effective pressures above 5 MPa can be roughly predicted by both the effective medium theory (Mori-Tanaka scheme) and the squirt-flow model. Static bulk moduli are found to be more sensitive to narrow cracks than dynamic bulk moduli for porous sandstones under dry and water-saturated conditions.
Large-magnitude fluid-injection induced seismic events are a potential risk for geothermal energy developments worldwide. One potential risk mitigation measure is the application of cyclic injection schemes. After validation at small (laboratory) and meso (mine) scale, the concept has now been applied for the first time at field scale at the Pohang Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) site in Korea. From 7 August until 14 August 2017 a total of 1756 m(3) of surface water was injected into Pohang well PX-1 at flow rates between 1 and 10 l s(-1), with a maximum wellhead pressure (WHP) of 22.8 MPa, according to a site-specific cyclic soft stimulation schedule and traffic light system. A total of 52 induced microearthquakes were detected in real-time during and shortly after the injection, the largest of M-w 1.9. After that event a total of 1771 m(3) of water was produced back from the well over roughly 1 month, during which time no larger-magnitude seismic event was observed. The hydraulic data set exhibits pressure-dependent injectivity increase with fracture opening between 15 and 17 MPa WHP, but no significant permanent transmissivity increase was observed. The maximum magnitude of the induced seismicity during the stimulation period was below the target threshold of M-w 2.0 and additional knowledge about the stimulated reservoir was gained. Additionally, the technical feasibility of cyclic injection at field scale was evaluated. The major factors that limited the maximum earthquake magnitude are believed to be: limiting the injected net fluid volume, flowback after the occurrence of the largest induced seismic event, using a cyclic injection scheme, the application of a traffic light system, and including a priori information from previous investigations and operations in the treatment design.
We analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of fault geometries from seismicity induced by fluid injection at The Geysers geothermal field. The consistency of these faults with the local stress field is investigated using (1) the fault instability coefficient I comparing the orientation of a fault with the optimal orientation for failure in the assumed stress field and (2) the misfit angle beta between slip vectors observed from focal mechanisms and predicted from stress tensor. A statistical approach is applied to calculate the most likely fault instabilities considering the uncertainties from focal mechanisms and stress inversion. We find that faults activated by fluid injection may display a broad range in orientations. About 72% of the analyzed seismicity occurs on faults with favorable orientation for failure with respect to the stress field. However, a number of events are observed either to occur on severely misoriented faults or to slip in a different orientation than predicted from stress field. These events mostly occur during periods of high injection rates and are located in proximity to the injection wells. From the stress inversion, the friction coefficient providing the largest overall instability is mu = 0.5. About 91% of the events are activated with an estimated excess pore pressure <10 MPa, in agreement with previous models considering the combined effect of thermal and poroelastic stress changes from fluid injection. Furthermore, high seismic activity and largest magnitudes occur on favorably oriented faults with large instability coefficients and low slip misfit angles.
Understanding the relation between injection-induced seismic moment release and operational parameters is crucial for early identification of possible seismic hazards associated with fluid-injection projects. We conducted laboratory fluid-injection experiments on permeable sandstone samples containing a critically stressed fault at different fluid pressurization rates. The observed fluid-induced fault deformation is dominantly aseismic. Fluid-induced stick-slip and fault creep reveal that total seismic moment release of acoustic emission (AE) events is related to total injected volume, independent of respective fault slip behavior. Seismic moment release rate of AE scales with measured fault slip velocity. For injection-induced fault slip in a homogeneous pressurized region, released moment shows a linear scaling with injected volume for stable slip (steady slip and fault creep), while we find a cubic relation for dynamic slip. Our results highlight that monitoring evolution of seismic moment release with injected volume in some cases may assist in discriminating between stable slip and unstable runaway ruptures.