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The concept of a "flow network"-a set of nodes and links which carries one or more flows-unites many different disciplines, including pipe flow, fluid flow, electrical, chemical reaction, ecological, epidemiological, neurological, communications, transportation, financial, economic and human social networks. This Feature Paper presents a generalized maximum entropy framework to infer the state of a flow network, including its flow rates and other properties, in probabilistic form. In this method, the network uncertainty is represented by a joint probability function over its unknowns, subject to all that is known. This gives a relative entropy function which is maximized, subject to the constraints, to determine the most probable or most representative state of the network. The constraints can include "observable" constraints on various parameters, "physical" constraints such as conservation laws and frictional properties, and "graphical" constraints arising from uncertainty in the network structure itself. Since the method is probabilistic, it enables the prediction of network properties when there is insufficient information to obtain a deterministic solution. The derived framework can incorporate nonlinear constraints or nonlinear interdependencies between variables, at the cost of requiring numerical solution. The theoretical foundations of the method are first presented, followed by its application to a variety of flow networks.
We investigate synchronization of coupled organ pipes. Synchronization and reflection in the organ lead to undesired weakening of the sound in special cases. Recent experiments have shown that sound interaction is highly complex and nonlinear, however, we show that two delay-coupled Van-der-Pol oscillators appear to be a good model for the occurring dynamical phenomena. Here the coupling is realized as distance-dependent, or time-delayed, equivalently. Analytically, we investigate the synchronization frequency and bifurcation scenarios which occur at the boundaries of the Arnold tongues. We successfully compare our results to experimental data.
Komplexe Systeme reichen von "harten", physikalischen, wie Klimaphysik, Turbulenz in Fluiden oder Plasmen bis zu so genannten "weichen", wie man sie in der Biologie, der Physik weicher Materie, Soziologie oder Ökonomie findet. Die Ausbildung von Verständnis zu einem solchen System beinhaltet eine Beschreibung in Form von Statistiken und schlussendlich mathematischen Gleichungen. Moderne Datenanalyse stellt eine große Menge von Werkzeugen zur Analyse von Komplexität auf verschiedenen Beschreibungsebenen bereit. In diesem Kurs werden statistische Methoden mit einem Schwerpunkt auf dynamischen Systemen diskutiert und eingeübt. Auf der methodischen Seite werden lineare und nichtlineare Ansätze behandelt, inklusive der Standard-Werkzeuge der deskriptiven und schlussfolgernden Statistik, Wavelet Analyse, Nichtparametrische Regression und der Schätzung nichtlinearer Maße wie fraktaler Dimensionen, Entropien und Komplexitätsmaßen. Auf der Modellierungsseite werden deterministische und stochastische Systeme, Chaos, Skalierung und das Entstehen von Komplexität durch Wechselwirkung diskutiert - sowohl für diskrete als auch für ausgedehnte Systeme. Die beiden Ansätze werden durch Systemanalyse jeweils passender Beispiele vereint.
We present a nonparametric way to retrieve an additive system of differential equations in embedding space from a single time series. These equations can be treated with dynamical systems theory and allow for long-term predictions. We apply our method to a modified chaotic Chua oscillator in order to demonstrate its potential
This article describes how to use statistical data analysis to obtain models directly from data. The focus is put on finding nonlinearities within a generalized additive model. These models are found by means of backfitting or more general algorithms, like the alternating conditional expectation value one. The method is illustrated by numerically generated data. As an application, the example of vortex ripple dynamics, a highly complex fluid-granular system, is treated
Vortex ripples in sand are studied experimentally in a one-dimensional setup with periodic boundary conditions. The nonlinear evolution, far from the onset of instability, is analyzed in the framework of a simple model developed for homogeneous patterns. The interaction function describing the mass transport between neighboring ripples is extracted from experimental runs using a recently proposed method for data analysis, and the predictions of the model are compared to the experiment. An analytic explanation of the wavelength selection mechanism in the model is provided, and the width of the stable band of ripples is measured.
Machine learning control
(2020)
Recently, the term explainable AI came into discussion as an approach to produce models from artificial intelligence which allow interpretation. For a long time, symbolic regression has been used to produce explainable and mathematically tractable models. In this contribution, we extend previous work on symbolic regression methods to infer the optimal control of a dynamical system given one or several optimization criteria, or cost functions. In earlier publications, network control was achieved by automated machine learning control using genetic programming. Here, we focus on the subsequent path continuation analysis of the mathematical expressions which result from the machine learning model. In particular, we use AUTO to analyze the solution properties of the controlled oscillator system which served as our model. As a result, we show that there is a considerable advantage of explainable symbolic regression models over less accessible neural networks. In particular, the roadmap of future works may be to integrate such analyses into the optimization loop itself to filter out robust solutions by construction.