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The Sierra de Aconquija and Cumbres Calchaquies in the thick-skinned northern Sierras Pampeanas, NW Argentina present an ideal setting to investigate the tectonically and erosionally controlled exhumation and uplift history of mountain ranges using thermochronological methods. Although these ranges are located along strike of one another, their spatiotemporal evolution varies significantly. Integrating modeled cooling histories constrained by K-Ar ages of muscovite and biotite, apatite fission track data as well as (U-Th)/He measurement of zircon and apatite reveal the structural evolution of these ranges beginning in the late stage of the Paleozoic Famatinian Orogeny. Following localized rift-related exhumation in the central part of the study area and slow erosion elsewhere, growth of the modern topography commenced in the Cenozoic during Andean deformation. The main activity occurred during the late Miocene, with varying magnitudes of rock uplift, surface uplift, and exhumation in the two mountain ranges. The Cumbres Calchaquies is characterized by a total of 5-7km of vertical rock uplift, around 3km of crestal surface uplift, and a maximum exhumation of 2-4km since that time. The Sierra de Aconquija experienced 10-13km of vertical rock uplift, similar to 4-5km of peak surface uplift, and 6-8km of exhumation since around 9Ma. Much of this exhumation occurred along a previously poorly recognized fault. Miocene reactivation of Cretaceous rift structures may explain along-strike variations within these ranges. Dating of sedimentary samples from adjacent basins supports the evolutionary model developed for the mountain ranges.
Basement-cored ranges formed by reverse faulting within intracontinental mountain belts are often composed of poly-deformed lithologies. Geological data capable of constraining the timing, magnitude, and distribution of the most recent deformational phase are usually missing in such ranges. In this paper, we present new low temperature thermochronological and geological data from a transect through the basement-cored Terskey Range, located in the Kyrgyz Tien Shan. Using these data, we are able to investigate the range's late Cenozoic deformation for the first time. Displacements on reactivated faults are constrained and deformation of thermochronologically derived structural markers is assessed. These structural markers postdate the earlier deformational phases, providing the only record of Cenozoic deformation and of the reactivation of structures within the Terskey Range. Overall, these structural markers have a southern inclination, interpreted to reflect the decreasing inclination of the reverse fault bounding the Terskey Range. Our thermochronological data are also used to investigate spatial and temporal variations in the exhumation of the Terskey Range, identifying a three-stage Cenozoic exhumation history: (1) virtually no exhumation in the Paleogene, (2) increase to slightly higher exhumation rates at similar to 26-20Ma, and (3) significant increase in exhumation starting at similar to 10Ma.
In the recent past, the Alpine Lech valley (Austria) experienced three damaging flood events within 6 years despite the various structural flood protection measures in place. For an improved flood risk management, the analysis of flood damage potentials is a crucial component. Since the expansion of built-up areas and their associated values is seen as one of the main drivers of rising flood losses, the goal of this study is to analyze the spatial development of the assets at risk, particularly of residential areas, due to land use changes over a historic period (since 1971) and up to possible shifts in future (until 2030). The analysis revealed that the alpine study area was faced to remarkable land use changes like urbanization and the decline of agriculturally used grassland areas. Although the major agglomeration of residential areas inside the flood plains took place before 1971, a steady growth of values at risk can still be observed until now. Even for the future, the trend is ongoing, but depends very much on the assumed land use scenario and the underlying land use policy. Between 1971 and 2006, the annual growth rate of the damage potential of residential areas amounted to 1.1 % ('constant values,' i.e., asset values at constant prices of reference year 2006) or 3.0 % ('adjusted values,' i.e., asset values adjusted by GDP increase at constant prices of reference year 2006) for three flood scenarios. For the projected time span between 2006 and 2030, a further annual increase by 1.0 % ('constant values') or even 4.2 % ('adjusted values') may be possible when the most extreme urbanization scenario 'Overall Growth' is considered. Although socio-economic development is regarded as the main driver for increasing flood losses, our analysis shows that settlement development does not preferably take place within flood prone areas.
Studies explaining the choice of model structure for population viability analysis (PVA) are rare and no such study exists for butterfly species, a focal group for conservation. Here, we describe in detail the development of a model to predict population viability of a glacial relict butterfly species, Boloria eunomia, under climate change. We compared four alternative formulations of an individual-based model, differing in the environmental factors acting on the survival of immature life stages: temperature (only temperature impact), weather (temperature, precipitation, and sunshine), temperature and parasitism, and weather and parasitism. Following pattern-oriented modeling, four observed patterns were used to contrast these models: one qualitative (response of population size to habitat parameters) and three quantitative ones describing population dynamics during eight years (mean and variability of population size, and magnitude of the temporal autocorrelation in yearly population growth rates). The four model formulations were not equally able to depict population dynamics under current environmental conditions; the model including only temperature was selected as the most parsimonious model sufficiently well reproducing the empirical patterns. We used all four model formulations to test a range of climate change scenarios that were characterized by changes in both mean and variability of the weather variables. All models predicted adverse effects of climate change and resulted in the same ranking of mean climate change scenarios. However, models differed in their absolute values of population viability measures, underlining the need to explicitly choose the most appropriate model formulation and avoid arbitrary usage of environmental drivers in a model. We conclude that further applications of pattern-oriented modeling to butterfly and other species are likely to help in identifying the key factors impacting the viability of certain taxa, which, ultimately, will aid and speed up informed management decisions for endangered species under climate change.
Flood loss modeling is an important component within flood risk assessments. Traditionally, stage-damage functions are used for the estimation of direct monetary damage to buildings. Although it is known that such functions are governed by large uncertainties, they are commonly applied - even in different geographical regions - without further validation, mainly due to the lack of real damage data. Until now, little research has been done to investigate the applicability and transferability of such damage models to other regions. In this study, the last severe flood event in the Austrian Lech Valley in 2005 was simulated to test the performance of various damage functions from different geographical regions in Central Europe for the residential sector. In addition to common stage-damage curves, new functions were derived from empirical flood loss data collected in the aftermath of recent flood events in neighboring Germany. Furthermore, a multi-parameter flood loss model for the residential sector was adapted to the study area and also evaluated with official damage data. The analysis reveals that flood loss functions derived from related and more similar regions perform considerably better than those from more heterogeneous data sets of different regions and flood events. While former loss functions estimate the observed damage well, the latter overestimate the reported loss clearly. To illustrate the effect of model choice on the resulting uncertainty of damage estimates, the current flood risk for residential areas was calculated. In the case of extreme events like the 300 yr flood, for example, the range of losses to residential buildings between the highest and the lowest estimates amounts to a factor of 18, in contrast to properly validated models with a factor of 2.3. Even if the risk analysis is only performed for residential areas, our results reveal evidently that a carefree model transfer in other geographical regions might be critical. Therefore, we conclude that loss models should at least be selected or derived from related regions with similar flood and building characteristics, as far as no model validation is possible. To further increase the general reliability of flood loss assessment in the future, more loss data and more comprehensive loss data for model development and validation are needed.
Flood risk is expected to increase in many regions of the world in the next decades with rising flood losses as a consequence. First and foremost, it can be attributed to the expansion of settlement and industrial areas into flood plains and the resulting accumulation of assets. For a future-oriented and a more robust flood risk management, it is therefore of importance not only to estimate potential impacts of climate change on the flood hazard, but also to analyze the spatio-temporal dynamics of flood exposure due to land use changes. In this study, carried out in the Alpine Lech Valley in Tyrol (Austria), various land use scenarios until 2030 were developed by means of a spatially explicit land use model, national spatial planning scenarios and current spatial policies. The combination of the simulated land use patterns with different inundation scenarios enabled us to derive statements about possible future changes in flood-exposed built-up areas. The results indicate that the potential assets at risk depend very much on the selected socioeconomic scenario. The important conditions affecting the potential assets at risk that differ between the scenarios are the demand for new built-up areas as well as on the types of conversions allowed to provide the necessary areas at certain locations. The range of potential changes in flood-exposed residential areas varies from no further change in the most moderate scenario 'Overall Risk' to 119 % increase in the most extreme scenario 'Overall Growth' (under current spatial policy) and 159 % increase when disregarding current building restrictions.
Due to limited public budgets and the need to economize, the analysis of costs of hazard mitigation and emergency management of natural hazards becomes increasingly important for public natural hazard and risk management. In recent years there has been a growing body of literature on the estimation of losses which supported to help to determine benefits of measures in terms of prevented losses. On the contrary, the costs of mitigation are hardly addressed. This paper thus aims to shed some light on expenses for mitigation and emergency services. For this, we analysed the annual costs of mitigation efforts in four regions/countries of the Alpine Arc: Bavaria (Germany), Tyrol (Austria), South Tyrol (Italy) and Switzerland. On the basis of PPP values (purchasing power parities), annual expenses on public safety ranged from EUR 44 per capita in the Free State of Bavaria to EUR 216 in the Autonomous Province of South Tyrol. To analyse the (variable) costs for emergency services in case of an event, we used detailed data from the 2005 floods in the Federal State of Tyrol (Austria) as well as aggregated data from the 2002 floods in Germany. The analysis revealed that multi-hazards, the occurrence and intermixture of different natural hazard processes, contribute to increasing emergency costs. Based on these findings, research gaps and recommendations for costing Alpine natural hazards are discussed.
In this paper, we report on in-situ atomic force microscopy (AFM) studies of topographical changes in azobenzene-containing photosensitive polymer films that are irradiated with light interference patterns. We have developed an experimental setup consisting of an AFM combined with two-beam interferometry that permits us to switch between different polarization states of the two interfering beams while scanning the illuminated area of the polymer film, acquiring corresponding changes in topography in-situ. This way, we are able to analyze how the change in topography is related to the variation of the electrical field vector within the interference pattern. It is for the first time that with a rather simple experimental approach a rigorous assignment can be achieved. By performing in-situ measurements we found that for a certain polarization combination of two interfering beams [namely for the SP (a dagger center dot, a dagger") polarization pattern] the topography forms surface relief grating with only half the period of the interference patterns. Exploiting this phenomenon we are able to fabricate surface relief structures with characteristic features measuring only 140 nm, by using far field optics with a wavelength of 491 nm. We believe that this relatively simple method could be extremely valuable to, for instance, produce structural features below the diffraction limit at high-throughput, and this could significantly contribute to the search of new fabrication strategies in electronics and photonics industry.
In this paper we report on an opto-mechanical scission of polymer chains within photosensitive diblock-copolymer brushes grafted to flat solid substrates. We employ surface-initiated polymerization of methylmethacrylate (MMA) and t-butyl methacrylate (tBMA) to grow diblock-copolymer brushes of poly(methylmethacrylate-b-t-butyl methacrylate) following the atom transfer polymerization (ATRP) scheme. After the synthesis, deprotection of the PtBMA block yields poly(methacrylic acid) (PMAA). To render PMMA-b-PMAA copolymers photosensitive, cationic azobenzene containing surfactants are attached to the negatively charged outer PMAA block. During irradiation with an ultraviolet (UV) interference pattern, the extent of photoisomerization of the azobenzene groups varies spatially and results in a topography change of the brush, i.e., formation of surface relief gratings (SRG). The SRG formation is accompanied by local rupturing of the polymer chains in areas from which the polymer material recedes. This opto-mechanically induced scission of the polymer chains takes place at the interfaces of the two blocks and depends strongly on the UV irradiation intensity. Our results indicate that this process may be explained by employing classical continuum fracture mechanics, which might be important for tailoring the phenomenon for applying it to poststructuring of polymer brushes.
We report on conductivity behavior of very thin gold layer deposited on a photosensitive polymer film. Under irradiation with light interference pattern, the azobenzene containing photosensitive polymer film undergoes deformation at which topography follows a distribution of intensity, resulting in the formation of a surface relief grating. This process is accompanied by a change in the shape of the polymer surface from flat to sinusoidal together with a corresponding increase in surface area. The gold layer placed above deforms along with the polymer and ruptures at a strain of 4%. The rupturing is spatially well defined, occurring at the topographic maxima and minima resulting in periodic cracks across the whole irradiated area. We have shown that this periodic micro-rupturing of a thin metal film has no significant impact on the electrical conductivity of the films. We suggest a model to explain this phenomenon and support this by additional experiments where the conductivity is measured in a process when a single nanoscopic scratch is formed with an AFM tip. Our results indicate that in flexible electronic materials consisting of a polymer support and an integrated metal circuit, nano-and micro cracks do not alter significantly the behavior of the conductivity unless the metal is disrupted completely. (C) 2013 AIP Publishing LLC.