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The injection of fluids is a well-known origin for the triggering of earthquake sequences. The growing number of projects related to enhanced geothermal systems, fracking, and others has led to the question, which maximum earthquake magnitude can be expected as a consequence of fluid injection? This question is addressed from the perspective of statistical analysis. Using basic empirical laws of earthquake statistics, we estimate the magnitude M-T of the maximum expected earthquake in a predefined future time window T-f. A case study of the fluid injection site at Paradox Valley, Colorado, demonstrates that the magnitude m 4.3 of the largest observed earthquake on 27 May 2000 lies very well within the expectation from past seismicity without adjusting any parameters. Vice versa, for a given maximum tolerable earthquake at an injection site, we can constrain the corresponding amount of injected fluids that must not be exceeded within predefined confidence bounds.

We investigate spatio-temporal properties of earthquake patterns in the San Jacinto fault zone (SJFZ), California, between Cajon Pass and the Superstition Hill Fault, using a long record of simulated seismicity constrained by available seismological and geological data. The model provides an effective realization of a large segmented strike-slip fault zone in a 3D elastic half-space, with heterogeneous distribution of static friction chosen to represent several clear step-overs at the surface. The simulated synthetic catalog reproduces well the basic statistical features of the instrumental seismicity recorded at the SJFZ area since 1981. The model also produces events larger than those included in the short instrumental record, consistent with paleo-earthquakes documented at sites along the SJFZ for the last 1,400 years. The general agreement between the synthetic and observed data allows us to address with the long-simulated seismicity questions related to large earthquakes and expected seismic hazard. The interaction between m a parts per thousand yen 7 events on different sections of the SJFZ is found to be close to random. The hazard associated with m a parts per thousand yen 7 events on the SJFZ increases significantly if the long record of simulated seismicity is taken into account. The model simulations indicate that the recent increased number of observed intermediate SJFZ earthquakes is a robust statistical feature heralding the occurrence of m a parts per thousand yen 7 earthquakes. The hypocenters of the m a parts per thousand yen 5 events in the simulation results move progressively towards the hypocenter of the upcoming m a parts per thousand yen 7 earthquake.

Geometric electroelasticity
(2014)

In this work a diffential geometric formulation of the theory of electroelasticity is developed which also includes thermal and magnetic influences. We study the motion of bodies consisting of an elastic material that are deformed by the influence of mechanical forces, heat and an external electromagnetic field. To this end physical balance laws (conservation of mass, balance of momentum, angular momentum and energy) are established. These provide an equation that describes the motion of the body during the deformation. Here the body and the surrounding space are modeled as Riemannian manifolds, and we allow that the body has a lower dimension than the surrounding space. In this way one is not (as usual) restricted to the description of the deformation of three-dimensional bodies in a three-dimensional space, but one can also describe the deformation of membranes and the deformation in a curved space. Moreover, we formulate so-called constitutive relations that encode the properties of the used material. Balance of energy as a scalar law can easily be formulated on a Riemannian manifold. The remaining balance laws are then obtained by demanding that balance of energy is invariant under the action of arbitrary diffeomorphisms on the surrounding space. This generalizes a result by Marsden and Hughes that pertains to bodies that have the same dimension as the surrounding space and does not allow the presence of electromagnetic fields. Usually, in works on electroelasticity the entropy inequality is used to decide which otherwise allowed deformations are physically admissible and which are not. It is alsoemployed to derive restrictions to the possible forms of constitutive relations describing the material. Unfortunately, the opinions on the physically correct statement of the entropy inequality diverge when electromagnetic fields are present. Moreover, it is unclear how to formulate the entropy inequality in the case of a membrane that is subjected to an electromagnetic field. Thus, we show that one can replace the use of the entropy inequality by the demand that for a given process balance of energy is invariant under the action of arbitrary diffeomorphisms on the surrounding space and under linear rescalings of the temperature. On the one hand, this demand also yields the desired restrictions to the form of the constitutive relations. On the other hand, it needs much weaker assumptions than the arguments in physics literature that are employing the entropy inequality. Again, our result generalizes a theorem of Marsden and Hughes. This time, our result is, like theirs, only valid for bodies that have the same dimension as the surrounding space.

In a recent paper, the Lefschetz number for endomorphisms (modulo trace class operators) of sequences of trace class curvature was introduced. We show that this is a well defined, canonical extension of the classical Lefschetz number and establish the homotopy invariance of this number. Moreover, we apply the results to show that the Lefschetz fixed point formula holds for geometric quasiendomorphisms of elliptic quasicomplexes.

The International Project for the Evaluation of Educational Achievement (IEA) was formed in the 1950s (Postlethwaite, 1967). Since that time, the IEA has conducted many studies in the area of mathematics, such as the First International Mathematics Study (FIMS) in 1964, the Second International Mathematics Study (SIMS) in 1980-1982, and a series of studies beginning with the Third International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) which has been conducted every 4 years since 1995. According to Stigler et al. (1999), in the FIMS and the SIMS, U.S. students achieved low scores in comparison with students in other countries (p. 1). The TIMSS 1995 “Videotape Classroom Study” was therefore a complement to the earlier studies conducted to learn “more about the instructional and cultural processes that are associated with achievement” (Stigler et al., 1999, p. 1). The TIMSS Videotape Classroom Study is known today as the TIMSS Video Study. From the findings of the TIMSS 1995 Video Study, Stigler and Hiebert (1999) likened teaching to “mountain ranges poking above the surface of the water,” whereby they implied that we might see the mountaintops, but we do not see the hidden parts underneath these mountain ranges (pp. 73-78). By watching the videotaped lessons from Germany, Japan, and the United States again and again, they discovered that “the systems of teaching within each country look similar from lesson to lesson. At least, there are certain recurring features [or patterns] that typify many of the lessons within a country and distinguish the lessons among countries” (pp. 77-78). They also discovered that “teaching is a cultural activity,” so the systems of teaching “must be understood in relation to the cultural beliefs and assumptions that surround them” (pp. 85, 88). From this viewpoint, one of the purposes of this dissertation was to study some cultural aspects of mathematics teaching and relate the results to mathematics teaching and learning in Vietnam. Another research purpose was to carry out a video study in Vietnam to find out the characteristics of Vietnamese mathematics teaching and compare these characteristics with those of other countries. In particular, this dissertation carried out the following research tasks: - Studying the characteristics of teaching and learning in different cultures and relating the results to mathematics teaching and learning in Vietnam - Introducing the TIMSS, the TIMSS Video Study and the advantages of using video study in investigating mathematics teaching and learning - Carrying out the video study in Vietnam to identify the image, scripts and patterns, and the lesson signature of eighth-grade mathematics teaching in Vietnam - Comparing some aspects of mathematics teaching in Vietnam and other countries and identifying the similarities and differences across countries - Studying the demands and challenges of innovating mathematics teaching methods in Vietnam – lessons from the video studies Hopefully, this dissertation will be a useful reference material for pre-service teachers at education universities to understand the nature of teaching and develop their teaching career.

The paper is devoted to asymptotic analysis of the Dirichlet problem for a second order partial differential equation containing a small parameter multiplying the highest order derivatives. It corresponds to a small perturbation of a dynamical system having a stationary solution in the domain. We focus on the case where the trajectories of the system go into the domain and the stationary solution is a proper node.

We describe an iterative method to combine seismicity forecasts. With this method, we produce the next generation of a starting forecast by incorporating predictive skill from one or more input forecasts. For a single iteration, we use the differential probability gain of an input forecast relative to the starting forecast. At each point in space and time, the rate in the next-generation forecast is the product of the starting rate and the local differential probability gain. The main advantage of this method is that it can produce high forecast rates using all types of numerical forecast models, even those that are not rate-based. Naturally, a limitation of this method is that the input forecast must have some information not already contained in the starting forecast. We illustrate this method using the Every Earthquake a Precursor According to Scale (EEPAS) and Early Aftershocks Statistics (EAST) models, which are currently being evaluated at the US testing center of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability. During a testing period from July 2009 to December 2011 (with 19 target earthquakes), the combined model we produce has better predictive performance - in terms of Molchan diagrams and likelihood - than the starting model (EEPAS) and the input model (EAST). Many of the target earthquakes occur in regions where the combined model has high forecast rates. Most importantly, the rates in these regions are substantially higher than if we had simply averaged the models.

We establish a quantisation of corner-degenerate symbols, here called Mellin-edge quantisation, on a manifold with second order singularities. The typical ingredients come from the "most singular" stratum of which is a second order edge where the infinite transversal cone has a base that is itself a manifold with smooth edge. The resulting operator-valued amplitude functions on the second order edge are formulated purely in terms of Mellin symbols taking values in the edge algebra over . In this respect our result is formally analogous to a quantisation rule of (Osaka J. Math. 37:221-260, 2000) for the simpler case of edge-degenerate symbols that corresponds to the singularity order 1. However, from the singularity order 2 on there appear new substantial difficulties for the first time, partly caused by the edge singularities of the cone over that tend to infinity.