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Holocene temperature proxy records are commonly used in quantitative synthesis and model-data comparisons. However, comparing correlations between time series from records collected in proximity to one another with the expected correlations based on climate model simulations indicates either regional or noisy climate signals in Holocene temperature proxy records. In this study, we evaluate the consistency of spatial correlations present in Holocene proxy records with those found in data from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Specifically, we predict correlations expected in LGM proxy records if the only difference to Holocene correlations would be due to more time uncertainty and more climate variability in the LGM. We compare this simple prediction to the actual correlation structure in the LGM proxy records. We found that time series data of ice-core stable isotope records and planktonic foraminifera Mg/Ca ratios were consistent between the Holocene and LGM periods, while time series of Uk'37 proxy records were not as we found no correlation between nearby LGM records. Our results support the finding of highly regional or noisy marine proxy records in the compilation analysed here and suggest the need for further studies on the role of climate proxies and the processes of climate signal recording and preservation.
Issue Despite their rather similar climatic conditions, eastern Eurasia and northern North America are largely covered by different plant functional types (deciduous or evergreen boreal forest) composed of larch or pine, spruce and fir, respectively. I propose that these deciduous and evergreen boreal forests represent alternative quasi-stable states, triggered by their different northern tree refugia that reflect the different environmental conditions experienced during the Last Glacial. Evidence This view is supported by palaeoecological and environmental evidence. Once established, Asian larch forests are likely to have stabilized through a complex vegetation-fire-permafrost soil-climate feedback system. Conclusion With respect to future forest developments, this implies that Asian larch forests are likely to be governed by long-term trajectories and are therefore largely resistant to natural climate variability on time-scales shorter than millennia. The effects of regional human impact and anthropogenic global warming might, however, cause certain stability thresholds to be crossed, meaning that irreversible transitions occur and resulting in marked consequences for ecosystem services on these human-relevant time-scales.
Non-linear intensification of Sahel rainfall as a possible dynamic response to future warming
(2017)
Projections of the response of Sahel rainfall to future global warming diverge significantly. Meanwhile, paleoclimatic records suggest that Sahel rainfall is capable of abrupt transitions in response to gradual forcing. Here we present climate modeling evidence for the possibility of an abrupt intensification of Sahel rainfall under future climate change. Analyzing 30 coupled global climate model simulations, we identify seven models where central Sahel rainfall increases by 40 to 300% over the 21st century, owing to a northward expansion of the West African monsoon domain. Rainfall in these models is non-linearly related to sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Atlantic and Mediterranean moisture source regions, intensifying abruptly beyond a certain SST warming level. We argue that this behavior is consistent with a self-amplifying dynamic-thermodynamical feedback, implying that the gradual increase in oceanic moisture availability under warming could trigger a sudden intensification of monsoon rainfall far inland of today's core monsoon region.
Identifying abrupt transitions is a key question in various disciplines. Existing transition detection methods, however, do not rigorously account for time series uncertainties, often neglecting them altogether or assuming them to be independent and qualitatively similar. Here, we introduce a novel approach suited to handle uncertainties by representing the time series as a time-ordered sequence of probability density functions. We show how to detect abrupt transitions in such a sequence using the community structure of networks representing probabilities of recurrence. Using our approach, we detect transitions in global stock indices related to well-known periods of politico-economic volatility. We further uncover transitions in the El Nino-Southern Oscillation which coincide with periods of phase locking with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Finally, we provide for the first time an 'uncertainty-aware' framework which validates the hypothesis that ice-rafting events in the North Atlantic during the Holocene were synchronous with a weakened Asian summer monsoon.
Holocene climate variability is generally characterized by low frequency changes than compared to the last glaciations including the Lateglacial. However, there is vast evidence for decadal to centennial scale oscillations and millennial scale climate trends, which are within and beyond a human lifetime perception, respectively. Within the Baltic realm, a transitional zone between oceanic and continental climate influence, the impact of Holocene and Lateglacial climate and environmental change is currently partly understood. This is mainly attributed to the scarcity of well-dated and high-resolution sediment records and to the lacking continuity of already investigated archives.
The aim of this doctoral thesis is to reconstruct Holocene and Late Glacial climate variability on local to (over)regional scales based on varved (annually laminated) sediments from Lake Czechowskie down to annual resolution. This project was carried out within the Virtual Institute for Integrated Climate and Landscape Evolution Analyses (ICLEA) and funded by the Helmholtz Association and the Helmholtz Climate Initiative REKLIM (Regional Climate Change). ICLEA intended to gain a better understanding of climate variability and landscape evolution processes in the Northern Central European lowlands since the last deglaciation. REKLIM Topic 8 “Abrupt climate change derived from proxy data” aims at identifying spatiotemporal patterns of climate variability between e.g. higher and lower latitudes. The main aim of this thesis was (i) to establish a robust chronology based on a multiple dating approach for Lake Czechowskie covering the Late Glacial and Holocene and for the Trzechowskie palaeolake for the Lateglacial, respectively, (ii) to reconstruct past climatic and environmental conditions on centennial to multi-millennial time scales and (iii) to distinguish between local to regional different sediments responses to climate change.
Addressing the first aim, the Lake Czechowskie chronology has been established by a multiple dating approach comprising information from varve counting, tephrochronology, AMS 14C dating of terrestrial plant remains, biostratigraphy and 137Cs activity concentration measurements. Those independent age constraints covering the Lateglacial and the entire Holocene and have been further implemented in a Bayesian age model by using OxCal v.4.2. Thus, even within non-varved sediment intervals, robust chronological information has been used for absolute age determination. The identification of five cryptotephras, of which three are used as unambiguous isochrones, is furthermore a significant improvement of the Czechowskie chronology and currently unique for the Holocene within Poland. The first findings of coexisting early Holocene Hässeldalen and Askja-S cryptotephras within a varved sequence even allowed differential dating between both volcanic ashes and stimulated the discussion of revising the absolute ages of the Askja-S tephra.
The Trzechowskie palaeolake chronology has been established by a multiple dating approach comprising varve counting, tephrochronology, AMS 14C dating of terrestrial plant remains and biostratigraphy, covers the Lateglacial period (Allerød and Younger Dryas) and has been implemented in OxCal v.4.2. Those age constraints allowed regional correlation to other high-resolution climate archives and identifying leads and lags of proxy responses at the onset of the Younger Dryas.
The second aim has been accomplished by detailed micro-facies and geochemical analyses of the Czechowskie sediments for the entire Holocene. Thus, especially micro-facies changes had been linked to enhanced productivity at Lake Czechowskie. Most prominent changes have been recorded at 7.3, 6.5, 4.3 and 2.8 varve kyrs BP and are linked to a stepwise increasing influence of Atlantic air masses. Especially, the mid-Holocene change, which had been widely reported from palaeohydrological records in low latitudes, has been identified and linked to large scale reorganization of atmospheric circulation patterns. Thus, especially long-term changes of climatic and environmental boundary conditions are widely recorded by the Czechowskie sediments. The pronounced response to (multi)millennial scale changes is further corroborated by the lack of clear sediment responses to early Holocene centennial scale climate oscillations (e.g. the Preboreal Oscillation).
However, decadal scale changes at Lake Czechowskie during the most recent period (last 140 years) have been investigated in a lake comparison study. To fulfill the third aim of the doctoral thesis, three lakes in close vicinity to each other have been investigated in order to better distinguish how local, site-specific parameters, may superimpose regional climate driven changes. All lakes haven been unambiguously linked by the Askja AD1875 cryptotephra and independent varve chronologies. As a result, climate warming has only been recorded by sedimentation changes at the smallest and best sheltered lake (Głęboczek), whereas the largest lake (Czechowskie) and the shallowest lake (Jelonek) showed attenuated and less clear sediment responses, respectively. The different responses have been linked to morphological lake characteristics (lake size and depth, catchment area). This study highlights the potential of high-resolution lake comparison for robust proxy based climate reconstructions.
In summary, the doctoral thesis presents a high-resolution sediment record with an underlying age model, which is prerequisite for unprecedented age control down to annual resolution. Sediment proxy based climate reconstructions demonstrate the importance of the Czechowskie sediments for better understanding climate variability in the southern Baltic realm. Case studies showed the clear response on millennial time scale, while decadal scale fluctuations are either less well expressed or superimposed by local, site-specific parameters. The identification of volcanic ash layers is not only used for unambiguous isochrones, those are key tie lines for local to supra regional archive synchronization and establish the Lake Czechowskie as a key climate archive.
This study investigates the spatial and temporal distributions of 14 key arboreal taxa and their driving forces during the last 22,000 calendar years before ad 1950 (kyr BP) using a taxonomically harmonized and temporally standardized fossil pollen dataset with a 500-year resolution from the eastern part of continental Asia. Logistic regression was used to estimate pollen abundance thresholds for vegetation occurrence (presence or dominance), based on modern pollen data and present ranges of 14 taxa in China. Our investigation reveals marked changes in spatial and temporal distributions of the major arboreal taxa. The thermophilous (Castanea, Castanopsis, Cyclobalanopsis, Fagus, Pterocarya) and eurythermal (Juglans, Quercus, Tilia, Ulmus) broadleaved tree taxa were restricted to the current tropical or subtropical areas of China during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and spread northward since c. 14.5 kyr BP. Betula and conifer taxa (Abies, Picea, Pinus), in contrast, retained a wider distribution during the LGM and showed no distinct expansion direction during the Late Glacial. Since the late mid-Holocene, the abundance but not the spatial extent of most trees decreased. The changes in spatial and temporal distributions for the 14 taxa are a reflection of climate changes, in particular monsoonal moisture, and, in the late Holocene, human impact. The post-LGM expansion patterns in eastern continental China seem to be different from those reported for Europe and North America, for example, the westward spread for eurythermal broadleaved taxa.
John Birks
(2015)
We describe the career of John Birks as a pioneering scientist who has, over a career spanning five decades, transformed palaeoecology from a largely descriptive to a rigorous quantitative science relevant to contemporary questions in ecology and environmental change. We review his influence on students and colleagues not only at Cambridge and Bergen Universities, his places of primary employment, but also on individuals and research groups in Europe and North America. We also introduce the collection of papers that we have assembled in his honour. The papers are written by his former students and close colleagues and span many of the areas of palaeoecology to which John himself has made major contributions. These include the relationship between ecology and palaeoecology, late-glacial and Holocene palaeoecology, ecological succession, climate change and vegetation history, the role of palaeoecological techniques in reconstructing and understanding the impact of human activity on terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems and numerical analysis of multivariate palaeoecological data.
In general, a moderate drying trend is observed in mid-latitude arid Central Asia since the Mid-Holocene, attributed to the progressively weakening influence of the mid-latitude Westerlies on regional climate. However, as the spatio-temporal pattern of this development and the underlying climatic mechanisms are yet not fully understood, new high-resolution paleoclimate records from this region are needed. Within this study, a sediment core from Lake Son Kol (Central Kyrgyzstan) was investigated using sedimentological, (bio) geochemical, isotopic, and palynological analyses, aiming at reconstructing regional climate development during the last 6000 years. Biogeochemical data, mainly reflecting summer moisture conditions, indicate predominantly wet conditions until 4950 cal. yr BP, succeeded by a pronounced dry interval between 4950 and 3900 cal. yr BP. In the following, a return to wet conditions and a subsequent moderate drying trend until present times are observed. This is consistent with other regional paleoclimate records and likely reflects the gradual Late Holocene diminishment of the amount of summer moisture provided by the mid-latitude Westerlies. However, climate impact of the Westerlies was apparently not only restricted to the summer season but also significant during winter as indicated by recurrent episodes of enhanced allochthonous input through snowmelt, occurring before 6000 cal. yr BP and at 5100-4350, 3450-2850, and 1900-1500 cal. yr BP. The distinct similar to 1500year periodicity of these episodes of increased winter precipitation in Central Kyrgyzstan resembles similar cyclicities observed in paleoclimate records around the North Atlantic, likely indicating a hemispheric-scale climatic teleconnection and an impact of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) variability in Central Asia.
Understanding the role of natural climate variability under the pressure of human induced changes of climate and landscapes, is crucial to improve future projections and adaption strategies. This doctoral thesis aims to reconstruct Holocene climate and environmental changes in NE Germany based on annually laminated lake sediments. The work contributes to the ICLEA project (Integrated CLimate and Landscape Evolution Analyses). ICLEA intends to compare multiple high-resolution proxy records with independent chronologies from the N central European lowlands, in order to disentangle the impact of climate change and human land use on landscape development during the Lateglacial and Holocene. In this respect, two study sites in NE Germany are investigated in this doctoral project, Lake Tiefer See and palaeolake Wukenfurche. While both sediment records are studied with a combination of high-resolution sediment microfacies and geochemical analyses (e.g. µ-XRF, carbon geochemistry and stable isotopes), detailed proxy understanding mainly focused on the continuous 7.7 m long sediment core from Lake Tiefer See covering the last ~6000 years. Three main objectives are pursued at Lake Tiefer See: (1) to perform a reliable and independent chronology, (2) to establish microfacies and geochemical proxies as indicators for climate and environmental changes, and (3) to trace the effects of climate variability and human activity on sediment deposition.
Addressing the first aim, a reliable chronology of Lake Tiefer See is compiled by using a multiple-dating concept. Varve counting and tephra findings form the chronological framework for the last ~6000 years. The good agreement with independent radiocarbon dates of terrestrial plant remains verifies the robustness of the age model. The resulting reliable and independent chronology of Lake Tiefer See and, additionally, the identification of nine tephras provide a valuable base for detailed comparison and synchronization of the Lake Tiefer See data set with other climate records. The sediment profile of Lake Tiefer See exhibits striking alternations between well-varved and non-varved sediment intervals. The combination of microfacies, geochemical and microfossil (i.e. Cladocera and diatom) analyses indicates that these changes of varve preservation are caused by variations of lake circulation in Lake Tiefer See. An exception is the well-varved sediment deposited since AD 1924, which is mainly influenced by human-induced lake eutrophication. Well-varved intervals before the 20th century are considered to reflect phases of reduced lake circulation and, consequently, stronger anoxic conditions. Instead, non-varved intervals indicate increased lake circulation in Lake Tiefer See, leading to more oxygenated conditions at the lake ground. Furthermore, lake circulation is not only influencing sediment deposition, but also geochemical processes in the lake. As, for example, the proxy meaning of δ13COM varies in time in response to changes of the oxygen regime in the lake hypolinion. During reduced lake circulation and stronger anoxic conditions δ13COM is influenced by microbial carbon cycling. In contrast, organic matter degradation controls δ13COM during phases of intensified lake circulation and more oxygenated conditions. The varve preservation indicates an increasing trend of lake circulation at Lake Tiefer See after ~4000 cal a BP. This trend is superimposed by decadal to centennial scale variability of lake circulation intensity. Comparison to other records in Central Europe suggests that the long-term trend is probably related to gradual changes in Northern Hemisphere orbital forcing, which induced colder and windier conditions in Central Europe and, therefore, reinforced lake circulation. Decadal to centennial scale periods of increased lake circulation coincide with settlement phases at Lake Tiefer See, as inferred from pollen data of the same sediment record. Deforestation reduced the wind shelter of the lake, which probably increased the sensitivity of lake circulation to wind stress. However, results of this thesis also suggest that several of these phases of increased lake circulation are additionally reinforced by climate changes. A first indication is provided by the comparison to the Baltic Sea record, which shows striking correspondence between major non-varved intervals at Lake Tiefer See and bioturbated sediments in the Baltic Sea. Furthermore, a preliminary comparison to the ICLEA study site Lake Czechowskie (N central Poland) shows a coincidence of at least three phases of increased lake circulation in both lakes, which concur with periods of known climate changes (2.8 ka event, ’Migration Period’ and ’Little Ice Age’). These results suggest an additional over-regional climate forcing also on short term increased of lake circulation in Lake Tiefer See.
In summary, the results of this thesis suggest that lake circulation at Lake Tiefer See is driven by a combination of long-term and short-term climate changes as well as of anthropogenic deforestation phases. Furthermore, the lake circulation drives geochemical cycles in the lake affecting the meaning of proxy data. Therefore, the work presented here expands the knowledge of climate and environmental variability in NE Germany. Furthermore, the integration of the Lake Tiefer See multi-proxy record in a regional comparison with another ICLEA side, Lake Czechowskie, enabled to better decipher climate changes and human impact on the lake system. These first results suggest a huge potential for further detailed regional comparisons to better understand palaeoclimate dynamics in N central Europe.
Semi-empirical sea-level models (SEMs) exploit physically motivated empirical relationships between global sea level and certain drivers, in the following global mean temperature. This model class evolved as a supplement to process-based models (Rahmstorf (2007)) which were unable to fully represent all relevant processes. They thus failed to capture past sea-level change (Rahmstorf et al. (2012)) and were thought likely to underestimate future sea-level rise. Semi-empirical models were found to be a fast and useful tool for exploring the uncertainties in future sea-level rise, consistently giving significantly higher projections than process-based models.
In the following different aspects of semi-empirical sea-level modelling have been studied. Models were first validated using various data sets of global sea level and temperature. SEMs were then used on the glacier contribution to sea level, and to infer past global temperature from sea-level data via inverse modelling. Periods studied encompass the instrumental period, covered by tide gauges (starting 1700 CE (Common Era) in Amsterdam) and satellites (first launched in 1992 CE), the era from 1000 BCE (before CE) to present, and the full length of the Holocene (using proxy data). Accordingly different data, model formulations and implementations have been used. It could be shown in Bittermann et al. (2013) that SEMs correctly predict 20th century sea-level when calibrated with data until 1900 CE. SEMs also turned out to give better predictions than the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th assessment report (AR4, IPCC (2007)) models, for the period from 1961–2003 CE.
With the first multi-proxy reconstruction of global sea-level as input, estimate of the human-induced component of modern sea-level change and projections of future sea-level rise were calculated (Kopp et al. (2016)). It turned out with 90% confidence that more than 40 % of the observed 20th century sea-level rise is indeed anthropogenic. With the new semi-empirical and IPCC (2013) 5th assessment report (AR5) projections the gap between SEM and process-based model projections closes, giving higher credibility to both. Combining all scenarios, from strong mitigation to business as usual, a global sea-level rise of 28–131 cm relative to 2000 CE, is projected with 90% confidence. The decision for a low carbon pathway could halve the expected global sea-level rise by 2100 CE.
Present day temperature and thus sea level are driven by the globally acting greenhouse-gas forcing. Unlike that, the Milankovich forcing, acting on Holocene timescales, results mainly in a northern-hemisphere temperature change. Therefore a semi-empirical model can be driven with northernhemisphere temperatures, which makes it possible to model the main subcomponent of sea-level change over this period. It showed that an additional positive constant rate of the order of the estimated Antarctic sea-level contribution is then required to explain the sea-level evolution over the Holocene. Thus the global sea level, following the climatic optimum, can be interpreted as the sum of a temperature induced sea-level drop and a positive long-term contribution, likely an ongoing response to deglaciation coming from Antarctica.