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We present a new set of global and local sea‐level projections at example tide gauge locations under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios. Compared to the CMIP5‐based sea‐level projections presented in IPCC AR5, we introduce a number of methodological innovations, including (i) more comprehensive treatment of uncertainties, (ii) direct traceability between global and local projections, and (iii) exploratory extended projections to 2300 based on emulation of individual CMIP5 models. Combining the projections with observed tide gauge records, we explore the contribution to total variance that arises from sea‐level variability, different emissions scenarios, and model uncertainty. For the period out to 2300 we further breakdown the model uncertainty by sea‐level component and consider the dependence on geographic location, time horizon, and emissions scenario. Our analysis highlights the importance of local variability for sea‐level change in the coming decades and the potential value of annual‐to‐decadal predictions of local sea‐level change. Projections to 2300 show a substantial degree of committed sea‐level rise under all emissions scenarios considered and highlight the reduced future risk associated with RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 compared to RCP8.5. Tide gauge locations can show large ( > 50%) departures from the global average, in some cases even reversing the sign of the change. While uncertainty in projections of the future Antarctic ice dynamic response tends to dominate post‐2100, we see substantial differences in the breakdown of model variance as a function of location, time scale, and emissions scenario.
We show that, although the equilibrium band dispersion of the Shockley-type surface state of two-dimensional Au(111) quantum films grown on W(110) does not deviate from the expected free-electron-like behavior, its nonequilibrium energy-momentum dispersion probed by time- and angle-resolved photoemission exhibits a remarkable kink above the Fermi level due to a significant enhancement of the effective mass. The kink is pronounced for certain thicknesses of the Au quantum well and vanishes in the very thin limit. We identify the kink as induced by the coupling between the Au(111) surface state and emergent quantum-well states which probe directly the buried gold-tungsten interface. The signatures of the coupling are further revealed by our time-resolved measurements which show that surface state and quantum-well states thermalize together behaving as dynamically locked electron populations. In particular, relaxation of hot carriers following laser excitation is similar for both surface state and quantum-well states and much slower than expected for a bulk metallic system. The influence of quantum confinement on the interplay between elementary scattering processes of the electrons at the surface and ultrafast carrier transport in the direction perpendicular to the surface is shown to be the reason for the slow electron dynamics.
Achromatium oxaliferum is a large sulfur bacterium easily recognized by large intracellular calcium carbonate bodies. Although these bodies often fill major parts of the cells' volume, their role and specific intracellular location are unclear. In this study, we used various microscopy and staining techniques to identify the cell compartment harboring the calcium carbonate bodies. We observed that Achromatium cells often lost their calcium carbonate bodies, either naturally or induced by treatments with diluted acids, ethanol, sodium bicarbonate and UV radiation which did not visibly affect the overall shape and motility of the cells (except for UV radiation). The water-soluble fluorescent dye fluorescein easily diffused into empty cavities remaining after calcium carbonate loss. Membranes (stained with Nile Red) formed a network stretching throughout the cell and surrounding empty or filled calcium carbonate cavities. The cytoplasm (stained with FITC and SYBR Green for nucleic acids) appeared highly condensed and showed spots of dissolved Ca2+ (stained with Fura-2). From our observations, we conclude that the calcium carbonate bodies are located in the periplasm, in extra-cytoplasmic pockets of the cytoplasmic membrane and are thus kept separate from the cell's cytoplasm. This periplasmic localization of the carbonate bodies might explain their dynamic formation and release upon environmental changes.
Lake sediments are increasingly explored as reliable paleoflood archives. In addition to established flood proxies including detrital layer thickness, chemical composition, and grain size, we explore stable oxygen and carbon isotope data as paleoflood proxies for lakes in catchments with carbonate bedrock geology. In a case study from Lake Mondsee (Austria), we integrate high-resolution sediment trapping at a proximal and a distal location and stable isotope analyses of varved lake sediments to investigate flood-triggered detrital sediment flux. First, we demonstrate a relation between runoff, detrital sediment flux, and isotope values in the sediment trap record covering the period 2011-2013 CE including 22 events with daily (hourly) peak runoff ranging from 10 (24) m(3) s(-1) to 79 (110) m(3) s(-1). The three- to ten-fold lower flood-triggered detrital sediment deposition in the distal trap is well reflected by attenuated peaks in the stable isotope values of trapped sediments. Next, we show that all nine flood-triggered detrital layers deposited in a sediment record from 1988 to 2013 have elevated isotope values compared with endogenic calcite. In addition, even two runoff events that did not cause the deposition of visible detrital layers are distinguished by higher isotope values. Empirical thresholds in the isotope data allow estimation of magnitudes of the majority of floods, although in some cases flood magnitudes are overestimated because local effects can result in too-high isotope values. Hence we present a proof of concept for stable isotopes as reliable tool for reconstructing flood frequency and, although with some limitations, even for flood magnitudes.
Openness indicators for the evaluation of digital platforms between the launch and maturity phase
(2024)
In recent years, the evaluation of digital platforms has become an important focus in the field of information systems science. The identification of influential indicators that drive changes in digital platforms, specifically those related to openness, is still an unresolved issue. This paper addresses the challenge of identifying measurable indicators and characterizing the transition from launch to maturity in digital platforms. It proposes a systematic analytical approach to identify relevant openness indicators for evaluation purposes. The main contributions of this study are the following (1) the development of a comprehensive procedure for analyzing indicators, (2) the categorization of indicators as evaluation metrics within a multidimensional grid-box model, (3) the selection and evaluation of relevant indicators, (4) the identification and assessment of digital platform architectures during the launch-to-maturity transition, and (5) the evaluation of the applicability of the conceptualization and design process for digital platform evaluation.
Global change is shifting the timing of biological events, leading to temporal mismatches between biological events and resource availability. These temporal mismatches can threaten species' populations. Importantly, temporal mismatches not only exert strong pressures on the population dynamics of the focal species, but can also lead to substantial changes in pairwise species interactions such as host-pathogen systems. We adapted an established individual-based model of host-pathogen dynamics. The model describes a viral agent in a social host, while accounting for the host's explicit movement decisions. We aimed to investigate how temporal mismatches between seasonal resource availability and host life-history events affect host-pathogen coexistence, that is, disease persistence. Seasonal resource fluctuations only increased coexistence probability when in synchrony with the hosts' biological events. However, a temporal mismatch reduced host-pathogen coexistence, but only marginally. In tandem with an increasing temporal mismatch, our model showed a shift in the spatial distribution of infected hosts. It shifted from an even distribution under synchronous conditions toward the formation of disease hotspots, when host life history and resource availability mismatched completely. The spatial restriction of infected hosts to small hotspots in the landscape initially suggested a lower coexistence probability due to the critical loss of susceptible host individuals within those hotspots. However, the surrounding landscape facilitated demographic rescue through habitat-dependent movement. Our work demonstrates that the negative effects of temporal mismatches between host resource availability and host life history on host-pathogen coexistence can be reduced through the formation of temporary disease hotspots and host movement decisions, with implications for disease management under disturbances and global change.
Peer assessment in MOOCs
(2021)
We report on a systematic review of the landscape of peer assessment in massive open online courses (MOOCs) with papers from 2014 to 2020 in 20 leading education technology publication venues across four databases containing education technology-related papers, addressing three research issues: the evolution of peer assessment in MOOCs during the period 2014 to 2020, the methods used in MOOCs to assess peers, and the challenges of and future directions in MOOC peer assessment. We provide summary statistics and a review of methods across the corpus and highlight three directions for improving the use of peer assessment in MOOCs: the need for focusing on scaling learning through peer evaluations, the need for scaling and optimizing team submissions in team peer assessments, and the need for embedding a social process for peer assessment.
In the data analysis of oscillatory systems, methods based on phase reconstruction are widely used to characterize phase-locking properties and inferring the phase dynamics. The main component in these studies is an extraction of the phase from a time series of an oscillating scalar observable. We discuss a practical procedure of phase reconstruction by virtue of a recently proposed method termed iterated Hilbert transform embeddings. We exemplify the potential benefits and limitations of the approach by applying it to a generic observable of a forced Stuart-Landau oscillator. Although in many cases, unavoidable amplitude modulation of the observed signal does not allow for perfect phase reconstruction, in cases of strong stability of oscillations and a high frequency of the forcing, iterated Hilbert transform embeddings significantly improve the quality of the reconstructed phase. We also demonstrate that for significant amplitude modulation, iterated embeddings do not provide any improvement.
In many species, dispersal is decisive for survival in a changing climate. Simulation models for population dynamics under climate change thus need to account for this factor. Moreover, large numbers of species inhabiting agricultural landscapes are subject to disturbances induced by human land use. We included dispersal in the HiLEG model that we previously developed to study the interaction between climate change and agricultural land use in single populations. Here, the model was parameterized for the large marsh grasshopper (LMG) in cultivated grasslands of North Germany to analyze (1) the species development and dispersal success depending on the severity of climate change in subregions, (2) the additional effect of grassland cover on dispersal success, and (3) the role of dispersal in compensating for detrimental grassland mowing. Our model simulated population dynamics in 60-year periods (2020-2079) on a fine temporal (daily) and high spatial (250 x 250 m(2)) scale in 107 subregions, altogether encompassing a range of different grassland cover, climate change projections, and mowing schedules. We show that climate change alone would allow the LMG to thrive and expand, while grassland cover played a minor role. Some mowing schedules that were harmful to the LMG nevertheless allowed the species to moderately expand its range. Especially under minor climate change, in many subregions dispersal allowed for mowing early in the year, which is economically beneficial for farmers. More severe climate change could facilitate LMG expansion to uninhabited regions but would require suitable mowing schedules along the path. These insights can be transferred to other species, given that the LMG is considered a representative of grassland communities. For more specific predictions on the dynamics of other species affected by climate change and land use, the publicly available HiLEG model can be easily adapted to the characteristics of their life cycle.