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Bad governance causes economic, social, developmental and environmental problems in many developing countries. Developing countries have adopted a number of reforms that have assisted in achieving good governance. The success of governance reform depends on the starting point of each country – what institutional arrangements exist at the out-set and who the people implementing reforms within the existing institutional framework are. This dissertation focuses on how formal institutions (laws and regulations) and informal institutions (culture, habit and conception) impact on good governance. Three characteristics central to good governance - transparency, participation and accountability are studied in the research.
A number of key findings were: Good governance in Hanoi and Berlin represent the two extremes of the scale, while governance in Berlin is almost at the top of the scale, governance in Hanoi is at the bottom. Good governance in Hanoi is still far from achieved. In Berlin, information about public policies, administrative services and public finance is available, reliable and understandable. People do not encounter any problems accessing public information. In Hanoi, however, public information is not easy to access. There are big differences between Hanoi and Berlin in the three forms of participation. While voting in Hanoi to elect local deputies is formal and forced, elections in Berlin are fair and free. The candidates in local elections in Berlin come from different parties, whereas the candidacy of local deputies in Hanoi is thoroughly controlled by the Fatherland Front. Even though the turnout of voters in local deputy elections is close to 90 percent in Hanoi, the legitimacy of both the elections and the process of representation is non-existent because the local deputy candidates are decided by the Communist Party.
The involvement of people in solving local problems is encouraged by the government in Berlin. The different initiatives include citizenry budget, citizen activity, citizen initiatives, etc. Individual citizens are free to participate either individually or through an association.
Lacking transparency and participation, the quality of public service in Hanoi is poor. Citizens seldom get their services on time as required by the regulations. Citizens who want to receive public services can bribe officials directly, use the power of relationships, or pay a third person – the mediator ("Cò" - in Vietnamese).
In contrast, public service delivery in Berlin follows the customer-orientated principle. The quality of service is high in relation to time and cost. Paying speed money, bribery and using relationships to gain preferential public service do not exist in Berlin.
Using the examples of Berlin and Hanoi, it is clear to see how transparency, participation and accountability are interconnected and influence each other. Without a free and fair election as well as participation of non-governmental organisations, civil organisations, and the media in political decision-making and public actions, it is hard to hold the Hanoi local government accountable.
The key differences in formal institutions (regulative and cognitive) between Berlin and Hanoi reflect the three main principles: rule of law vs. rule by law, pluralism vs. monopoly Party in politics and social market economy vs. market economy with socialist orientation.
In Berlin the logic of appropriateness and codes of conduct are respect for laws, respect of individual freedom and ideas and awareness of community development. People in Berlin take for granted that public services are delivered to them fairly. Ideas such as using money or relationships to shorten public administrative procedures do not exist in the mind of either public officials or citizens.
In Hanoi, under a weak formal framework of good governance, new values and norms (prosperity, achievement) generated in the economic transition interact with the habits of the centrally-planned economy (lying, dependence, passivity) and traditional values (hierarchy, harmony, family, collectivism) influence behaviours of those involved.
In Hanoi “doing the right thing” such as compliance with law doesn’t become “the way it is”.
The unintended consequence of the deliberate reform actions of the Party is the prevalence of corruption. The socialist orientation seems not to have been achieved as the gap between the rich and the poor has widened.
Good governance is not achievable if citizens and officials are concerned only with their self-interest. State and society depend on each other. Theoretically to achieve good governance in Hanoi, institutions (formal and informal) able to create good citizens, officials and deputies should be generated. Good citizens are good by habit rather than by nature.
The rule of law principle is necessary for the professional performance of local administrations and People’s Councils. When the rule of law is applied consistently, the room for informal institutions to function will be reduced.
Promoting good governance in Hanoi is dependent on the need and desire to change the government and people themselves. Good governance in Berlin can be seen to be the result of the efforts of the local government and citizens after a long period of development and continuous adjustment.
Institutional transformation is always a long and complicated process because the change in formal regulations as well as in the way they are implemented may meet strong resistance from the established practice. This study has attempted to point out the weaknesses of the institutions of Hanoi and has identified factors affecting future development towards good governance. But it is not easy to determine how long it will take to change the institutional setting of Hanoi in order to achieve good governance.
In many applications one is faced with the problem of inferring some functional relation between input and output variables from given data. Consider, for instance, the task of email spam filtering where one seeks to find a model which automatically assigns new, previously unseen emails to class spam or non-spam. Building such a predictive model based on observed training inputs (e.g., emails) with corresponding outputs (e.g., spam labels) is a major goal of machine learning. Many learning methods assume that these training data are governed by the same distribution as the test data which the predictive model will be exposed to at application time. That assumption is violated when the test data are generated in response to the presence of a predictive model. This becomes apparent, for instance, in the above example of email spam filtering. Here, email service providers employ spam filters and spam senders engineer campaign templates such as to achieve a high rate of successful deliveries despite any filters. Most of the existing work casts such situations as learning robust models which are unsusceptible against small changes of the data generation process. The models are constructed under the worst-case assumption that these changes are performed such to produce the highest possible adverse effect on the performance of the predictive model. However, this approach is not capable to realistically model the true dependency between the model-building process and the process of generating future data. We therefore establish the concept of prediction games: We model the interaction between a learner, who builds the predictive model, and a data generator, who controls the process of data generation, as an one-shot game. The game-theoretic framework enables us to explicitly model the players' interests, their possible actions, their level of knowledge about each other, and the order at which they decide for an action. We model the players' interests as minimizing their own cost function which both depend on both players' actions. The learner's action is to choose the model parameters and the data generator's action is to perturbate the training data which reflects the modification of the data generation process with respect to the past data. We extensively study three instances of prediction games which differ regarding the order in which the players decide for their action. We first assume that both player choose their actions simultaneously, that is, without the knowledge of their opponent's decision. We identify conditions under which this Nash prediction game has a meaningful solution, that is, a unique Nash equilibrium, and derive algorithms that find the equilibrial prediction model. As a second case, we consider a data generator who is potentially fully informed about the move of the learner. This setting establishes a Stackelberg competition. We derive a relaxed optimization criterion to determine the solution of this game and show that this Stackelberg prediction game generalizes existing prediction models. Finally, we study the setting where the learner observes the data generator's action, that is, the (unlabeled) test data, before building the predictive model. As the test data and the training data may be governed by differing probability distributions, this scenario reduces to learning under covariate shift. We derive a new integrated as well as a two-stage method to account for this data set shift. In case studies on email spam filtering we empirically explore properties of all derived models as well as several existing baseline methods. We show that spam filters resulting from the Nash prediction game as well as the Stackelberg prediction game in the majority of cases outperform other existing baseline methods.
Education in knowledge society is challenged with a lot of problems in particular the interaction between the teacher and learner in social networking software as a key factor affects the learners’ learning and satisfaction (Prammanee, 2005) where “to teach is to communicate, to communicate is to interact, to interact is to learn” (Hefzallah, 2004, p. 48). Analyzing the relation between teacher-learner interaction from a side and learning outcome and learners’ satisfaction from the other side, some basic problems regarding a new learning culture using social networking software are discussed. Most of the educational institutions pay a lot of attentions to the equipments and emerging Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) in learning situations. They try to incorporate ICT into their institutions as teaching and learning environments. They do this because they expect that by doing so they will improve the outcome of the learning process. Despite this, the learning outcome as reported in most studies is very limited, because the expectations of self-directed learning are much higher than the reality. Findings from an empirical study (investigating the role of teacher-learner interaction through new digital media wiki in higher education and learning outcome and learner’s satisfaction) are presented recommendations about the necessity of pedagogical interactions in support of teaching and learning activities in wiki courses in order to improve the learning outcome. Conclusions show the necessity for significant changes in the approach of vocational teacher training programs of online teachers in order to meet the requirements of new digital media in coherence with a new learning culture. These changes have to address collaborative instead of individual learning and ICT wiki as a tool for knowledge construction instead of a tool for gathering information.
Cargo transport by molecular motors is ubiquitous in all eukaryotic cells and is typically driven cooperatively by several molecular motors, which may belong to one or several motor species like kinesin, dynein or myosin. These motor proteins transport cargos such as RNAs, protein complexes or organelles along filaments, from which they unbind after a finite run length. Understanding how these motors interact and how their movements are coordinated and regulated is a central and challenging problem in studies of intracellular transport. In this thesis, we describe a general theoretical framework for the analysis of such transport processes, which enables us to explain the behavior of intracellular cargos based on the transport properties of individual motors and their interactions. Motivated by recent in vitro experiments, we address two different modes of transport: unidirectional transport by two identical motors and cooperative transport by actively walking and passively diffusing motors. The case of cargo transport by two identical motors involves an elastic coupling between the motors that can reduce the motors’ velocity and/or the binding time to the filament. We show that this elastic coupling leads, in general, to four distinct transport regimes. In addition to a weak coupling regime, kinesin and dynein motors are found to exhibit a strong coupling and an enhanced unbinding regime, whereas myosin motors are predicted to attain a reduced velocity regime. All of these regimes, which we derive both by analytical calculations and by general time scale arguments, can be explored experimentally by varying the elastic coupling strength. In addition, using the time scale arguments, we explain why previous studies came to different conclusions about the effect and relevance of motor-motor interference. In this way, our theory provides a general and unifying framework for understanding the dynamical behavior of two elastically coupled molecular motors. The second mode of transport studied in this thesis is cargo transport by actively pulling and passively diffusing motors. Although these passive motors do not participate in active transport, they strongly enhance the overall cargo run length. When an active motor unbinds, the cargo is still tethered to the filament by the passive motors, giving the unbound motor the chance to rebind and continue its active walk. We develop a stochastic description for such cooperative behavior and explicitly derive the enhanced run length for a cargo transported by one actively pulling and one passively diffusing motor. We generalize our description to the case of several pulling and diffusing motors and find an exponential increase of the run length with the number of involved motors.
One of the most exciting predictions of Einstein's theory of gravitation that have not yet been proven experimentally by a direct detection are gravitational waves. These are tiny distortions of the spacetime itself, and a world-wide effort to directly measure them for the first time with a network of large-scale laser interferometers is currently ongoing and expected to provide positive results within this decade. One potential source of measurable gravitational waves is the inspiral and merger of two compact objects, such as binary black holes. Successfully finding their signature in the noise-dominated data of the detectors crucially relies on accurate predictions of what we are looking for. In this thesis, we present a detailed study of how the most complete waveform templates can be constructed by combining the results from (A) analytical expansions within the post-Newtonian framework and (B) numerical simulations of the full relativistic dynamics. We analyze various strategies to construct complete hybrid waveforms that consist of a post-Newtonian inspiral part matched to numerical-relativity data. We elaborate on exsisting approaches for nonspinning systems by extending the accessible parameter space and introducing an alternative scheme based in the Fourier domain. Our methods can now be readily applied to multiple spherical-harmonic modes and precessing systems. In addition to that, we analyze in detail the accuracy of hybrid waveforms with the goal to quantify how numerous sources of error in the approximation techniques affect the application of such templates in real gravitational-wave searches. This is of major importance for the future construction of improved models, but also for the correct interpretation of gravitational-wave observations that are made utilizing any complete waveform family. In particular, we comprehensively discuss how long the numerical-relativity contribution to the signal has to be in order to make the resulting hybrids accurate enough, and for currently feasible simulation lengths we assess the physics one can potentially do with template-based searches.
The dissertation examines the use of performance information by public managers. “Use” is conceptualized as purposeful utilization in order to steer, learn, and improve public services. The main research question is: Why do public managers use performance information? To answer this question, I systematically review the existing literature, identify research gaps and introduce the approach of my dissertation. The first part deals with manager-related variables that might affect performance information use but which have thus far been disregarded. The second part models performance data use by applying a theory from social psychology which is based on the assumption that this management behavior is conscious and reasoned. The third part examines the extent to which explanations of performance information use vary if we include others sources of “unsystematic” feedback in our analysis. The empirical results are based on survey data from 2011. I surveyed middle managers from eight selected divisions of all German cities with county status (n=954). To analyze the data, I used factor analysis, multiple regression analysis, and structural equation modeling. My research resulted in four major findings: 1) The use of performance information can be modeled as a reasoned behavior which is determined by the attitude of the managers and of their immediate peers. 2) Regular users of performance data surprisingly are not generally inclined to analyze abstract data but rather prefer gathering information through personal interaction. 3) Managers who take on ownership of performance information at an early stage in the measurement process are also more likely to use this data when it is reported to them. 4) Performance reports are only one source of information among many. Public managers prefer verbal feedback from insiders and feedback from external stakeholders over systematic performance reports. The dissertation explains these findings using a deductive approach and discusses their implications for theory and practice.
This thesis contains several theoretical studies on optomechanical systems, i.e. physical devices where mechanical degrees of freedom are coupled with optical cavity modes. This optomechanical interaction, mediated by radiation pressure, can be exploited for cooling and controlling mechanical resonators in a quantum regime. The goal of this thesis is to propose several new ideas for preparing meso- scopic mechanical systems (of the order of 10^15 atoms) into highly non-classical states. In particular we have shown new methods for preparing optomechani-cal pure states, squeezed states and entangled states. At the same time, proce-dures for experimentally detecting these quantum effects have been proposed. In particular, a quantitative measure of non classicality has been defined in terms of the negativity of phase space quasi-distributions. An operational al- gorithm for experimentally estimating the non-classicality of quantum states has been proposed and successfully applied in a quantum optics experiment. The research has been performed with relatively advanced mathematical tools related to differential equations with periodic coefficients, classical and quantum Bochner’s theorems and semidefinite programming. Nevertheless the physics of the problems and the experimental feasibility of the results have been the main priorities.
Complex networks have been successfully employed to represent different levels of biological systems, ranging from gene regulation to protein-protein interactions and metabolism. Network-based research has mainly focused on identifying unifying structural properties, including small average path length, large clustering coefficient, heavy-tail degree distribution, and hierarchical organization, viewed as requirements for efficient and robust system architectures. Existing studies estimate the significance of network properties using a generic randomization scheme - a Markov-chain switching algorithm - which generates unrealistic reactions in metabolic networks, as it does not account for the physical principles underlying metabolism. Therefore, it is unclear whether the properties identified with this generic approach are related to the functions of metabolic networks. Within this doctoral thesis, I have developed an algorithm for mass-balanced randomization of metabolic networks, which runs in polynomial time and samples networks almost uniformly at random. The properties of biological systems result from two fundamental origins: ubiquitous physical principles and a complex history of evolutionary pressure. The latter determines the cellular functions and abilities required for an organism’s survival. Consequently, the functionally important properties of biological systems result from evolutionary pressure. By employing randomization under physical constraints, the salient structural properties, i.e., the smallworld property, degree distributions, and biosynthetic capabilities of six metabolic networks from all kingdoms of life are shown to be independent of physical constraints, and thus likely to be related to evolution and functional organization of metabolism. This stands in stark contrast to the results obtained from the commonly applied switching algorithm. In addition, a novel network property is devised to quantify the importance of reactions by simulating the impact of their knockout. The relevance of the identified reactions is verified by the findings of existing experimental studies demonstrating the severity of the respective knockouts. The results suggest that the novel property may be used to determine the reactions important for viability of organisms. Next, the algorithm is employed to analyze the dependence between mass balance and thermodynamic properties of Escherichia coli metabolism. The thermodynamic landscape in the vicinity of the metabolic network reveals two regimes of randomized networks: those with thermodynamically favorable reactions, similar to the original network, and those with less favorable reactions. The results suggest that there is an intrinsic dependency between thermodynamic favorability and evolutionary optimization. The method is further extended to optimizing metabolic pathways by introducing novel chemically feasibly reactions. The results suggest that, in three organisms of biotechnological importance, introduction of the identified reactions may allow for optimizing their growth. The approach is general and allows identifying chemical reactions which modulate the performance with respect to any given objective function, such as the production of valuable compounds or the targeted suppression of pathway activity. These theoretical developments can find applications in metabolic engineering or disease treatment. The developed randomization method proposes a novel approach to measuring the significance of biological network properties, and establishes a connection between large-scale approaches and biological function. The results may provide important insights into the functional principles of metabolic networks, and open up new possibilities for their engineering.
Since available phosphate (Pi) resources in soil are limited, symbiotic interactions between plant roots and arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi are a widespread strategy to improve plant phosphate nutrition. The repression of AM symbiosis by a high plant Pi-status indicates a link between Pi homeostasis signalling and AM symbiosis development. This assumption is supported by the systemic induction of several microRNA399 (miR399) primary transcripts in shoots and a simultaneous accumulation of mature miR399 in roots of mycorrhizal plants. However, the physiological role of this miR399 expression pattern is still elusive and offers the question whether other miRNAs are also involved in AM symbiosis. Therefore, a deep sequencing approach was applied to investigate miRNA-mediated posttranscriptional gene regulation in M. truncatula mycorrhizal roots. Degradome analysis revealed that 185 transcripts were cleaved by miRNAs, of which the majority encoded transcription factors and disease resistance genes, suggesting a tight control of transcriptional reprogramming and a downregulation of defence responses by several miRNAs in mycorrhizal roots. Interestingly, 45 of the miRNA-cleaved transcripts showed a significant differentially regulated between mycorrhizal and non-mycorrhizal roots. In addition, key components of the Pi homeostasis signalling pathway were analyzed concerning their expression during AM symbiosis development. MtPhr1 overexpression and time course expression data suggested a strong interrelation between the components of the PHR1-miR399-PHO2 signalling pathway and AM symbiosis, predominantly during later stages of symbiosis. In situ hybridizations confirmed accumulation of mature miR399 in the phloem and in arbuscule-containing cortex cells of mycorrhizal roots. Moreover, a novel target of the miR399 family, named as MtPt8, was identified by the above mentioned degradome analysis. MtPt8 encodes a Pi-transporter exclusively transcribed in mycorrhizal roots and its promoter activity was restricted to arbuscule-containing cells. At a low Pi-status, MtPt8 transcript abundance inversely correlated with a mature miR399 expression pattern. Increased MtPt8 transcript levels were accompanied by elevated symbiotic Pi-uptake efficiency, indicating its impact on balancing plant and fungal Pi-acquisition. In conclusion, this study provides evidence for a direct link of the regulatory mechanisms of plant Pi-homeostasis and AM symbiosis at a cell-specific level. The results of this study, especially the interaction of miR399 and MtPt8 provide a fundamental step for future studies of plant-microbe-interactions with regard to agricultural and ecological aspects.
In the course of this thesis gold nanoparticle/polyelectrolyte multilayer structures were prepared, characterized, and investigated according to their static and ultrafast optical properties. Using the dip-coating or spin-coating layer-by-layer deposition method, gold-nanoparticle layers were embedded in a polyelectrolyte environment with high structural perfection. Typical structures exhibit four repetition units, each consisting of one gold-particle layer and ten double layers of polyelectrolyte (cationic+anionic polyelectrolyte). The structures were characterized by X-ray reflectivity measurements, which reveal Bragg peaks up to the seventh order, evidencing the high stratication of the particle layers. In the same measurements pronounced Kiessig fringes were observed, which indicate a low global roughness of the samples. Atomic force microscopy (AFM) images veried this low roughness, which results from the high smoothing capabilities of polyelectrolyte layers. This smoothing effect facilitates the fabrication of stratified nanoparticle/polyelectrolyte multilayer structures, which were nicely illustrated in a transmission electron microscopy image. The samples' optical properties were investigated by static spectroscopic measurements in the visible and UV range. The measurements revealed a frequency shift of the reflectance and of the plasmon absorption band, depending on the thickness of the polyelectrolyte layers that cover a nanoparticle layer. When the covering layer becomes thicker than the particle interaction range, the absorption spectrum becomes independent of the polymer thickness. However, the reflectance spectrum continues shifting to lower frequencies (even for large thicknesses). The range of plasmon interaction was determined to be in the order of the particle diameter for 10 nm, 20 nm, and 150 nm particles. The transient broadband complex dielectric function of a multilayer structure was determined experimentally by ultrafast pump-probe spectroscopy. This was achieved by simultaneous measurements of the changes in the reflectance and transmittance of the excited sample over a broad spectral range. The changes in the real and imaginary parts of the dielectric function were directly deduced from the measured data by using a recursive formalism based on the Fresnel equations. This method can be applied to a broad range of nanoparticle systems where experimental data on the transient dielectric response are rare. This complete experimental approach serves as a test ground for modeling the dielectric function of a nanoparticle compound structure upon laser excitation.
Theory of mRNA degradation
(2012)
One of the central themes of biology is to understand how individual cells achieve a high fidelity in gene expression. Each cell needs to ensure accurate protein levels for its proper functioning and its capability to proliferate. Therefore, complex regulatory mechanisms have evolved in order to render the expression of each gene dependent on the expression level of (all) other genes. Regulation can occur at different stages within the framework of the central dogma of molecular biology. One very effective and relatively direct mechanism concerns the regulation of the stability of mRNAs. All organisms have evolved diverse and powerful mechanisms to achieve this. In order to better comprehend the regulation in living cells, biochemists have studied specific degradation mechanisms in detail. In addition to that, modern high-throughput techniques allow to obtain quantitative data on a global scale by parallel analysis of the decay patterns of many different mRNAs from different genes. In previous studies, the interpretation of these mRNA decay experiments relied on a simple theoretical description based on an exponential decay. However, this does not account for the complexity of the responsible mechanisms and, as a consequence, the exponential decay is often not in agreement with the experimental decay patterns. We have developed an improved and more general theory of mRNA degradation which provides a general framework of mRNA expression and allows describing specific degradation mechanisms. We have made an attempt to provide detailed models for the regulation in different organisms. In the yeast S. cerevisiae, different degradation pathways are known to compete and furthermore most of them rely on the biochemical modification of mRNA molecules. In bacteria such as E. coli, degradation proceeds primarily endonucleolytically, i.e. it is governed by the initial cleavage within the coding region. In addition, it is often coupled to the level of maturity and the size of the polysome of an mRNA. Both for S. cerevisiae and E. coli, our descriptions lead to a considerable improvement of the interpretation of experimental data. The general outcome is that the degradation of mRNA must be described by an age-dependent degradation rate, which can be interpreted as a consequence of molecular aging of mRNAs. Within our theory, we find adequate ways to address this much debated topic from a theoretical perspective. The improvements of the understanding of mRNA degradation can be readily applied to further comprehend the mRNA expression under different internal or environmental conditions such as after the induction of transcription or stress application. Also, the role of mRNA decay can be assessed in the context of translation and protein synthesis. The ultimate goal in understanding gene regulation mediated by mRNA stability will be to identify the relevance and biological function of different mechanisms. Once more quantitative data will become available, our description allows to elaborate the role of each mechanism by devising a suitable model.
Climate is the principal driving force of hydrological extremes like floods and attributing generating mechanisms is an essential prerequisite for understanding past, present, and future flood variability. Successively enhanced radiative forcing under global warming enhances atmospheric water-holding capacity and is expected to increase the likelihood of strong floods. In addition, natural climate variability affects the frequency and magnitude of these events on annual to millennial time-scales. Particularly in the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, correlations between meteorological variables and hydrological indices suggest significant effects of changing climate boundary conditions on floods. To date, however, understanding of flood responses to changing climate boundary conditions is limited due to the scarcity of hydrological data in space and time. Exploring paleoclimate archives like annually laminated (varved) lake sediments allows to fill this gap in knowledge offering precise dated time-series of flood variability for millennia. During river floods, detrital catchment material is eroded and transported in suspension by fluid turbulence into downstream lakes. In the water body the transport capacity of the inflowing turbidity current successively diminishes leading to the deposition of detrital layers on the lake floor. Intercalated into annual laminations these detrital layers can be dated down to seasonal resolution. Microfacies analyses and X-ray fluorescence scanning (µ-XRF) at 200 µm resolution were conducted on the varved Mid- to Late Holocene interval of two sediment profiles from pre-alpine Lake Ammersee (southern Germany) located in a proximal (AS10prox) and distal (AS10dist) position towards the main tributary River Ammer. To shed light on sediment distribution within the lake, particular emphasis was (1) the detection of intercalated detrital layers and their micro-sedimentological features, and (2) intra-basin correlation of these deposits. Detrital layers were dated down to the season by microscopic varve counting and determination of the microstratigraphic position within a varve. The resulting chronology is verified by accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) 14C dating of 14 terrestrial plant macrofossils. Since ~5500 varve years before present (vyr BP), in total 1573 detrital layers were detected in either one or both of the investigated sediment profiles. Based on their microfacies, geochemistry, and proximal-distal deposition pattern, detrital layers were interpreted as River Ammer flood deposits. Calibration of the flood layer record using instrumental daily River Ammer runoff data from AD 1926 to 1999 proves the flood layer succession to represent a significant time-series of major River Ammer floods in spring and summer, the flood season in the Ammersee region. Flood layer frequency trends are in agreement with decadal variations of the East Atlantic-Western Russia (EA-WR) atmospheric pattern back to 200 yr BP (end of the used atmospheric data) and solar activity back to 5500 vyr BP. Enhanced flood frequency corresponds to the negative EA-WR phase and reduced solar activity. These common links point to a central role of varying large-scale atmospheric circulation over Europe for flood frequency in the Ammersee region and suggest that these atmospheric variations, in turn, are likely modified by solar variability during the past 5500 years. Furthermore, the flood layer record indicates three shifts in mean layer thickness and frequency of different manifestation in both sediment profiles at ~5500, ~2800, and ~500 vyr BP. Combining information from both sediment profiles enabled to interpret these shifts in terms of stepwise increases in mean flood intensity. Likely triggers of these shifts are gradual reduction of Northern Hemisphere orbital summer forcing and long-term solar activity minima. Hypothesized atmospheric response to this forcing is hemispheric cooling that enhances equator-to-pole temperature gradients and potential energy in the troposphere. This energy is transferred into stronger westerly cyclones, more extreme precipitation, and intensified floods at Lake Ammersee. Interpretation of flood layer frequency and thickness data in combination with reanalysis models and time-series analysis allowed to reconstruct the flood history and to decipher flood triggering climate mechanisms in the Ammersee region throughout the past 5500 years. Flood frequency and intensity are not stationary, but influenced by multi-causal climate forcing of large-scale atmospheric modes on time-scales from years to millennia. These results challenge future projections that propose an increase in floods when Earth warms based only on the assumption of an enhanced hydrological cycle.
The field of machine learning studies algorithms that infer predictive models from data. Predictive models are applicable for many practical tasks such as spam filtering, face and handwritten digit recognition, and personalized product recommendation. In general, they are used to predict a target label for a given data instance. In order to make an informed decision about the deployment of a predictive model, it is crucial to know the model’s approximate performance. To evaluate performance, a set of labeled test instances is required that is drawn from the distribution the model will be exposed to at application time. In many practical scenarios, unlabeled test instances are readily available, but the process of labeling them can be a time- and cost-intensive task and may involve a human expert. This thesis addresses the problem of evaluating a given predictive model accurately with minimal labeling effort. We study an active model evaluation process that selects certain instances of the data according to an instrumental sampling distribution and queries their labels. We derive sampling distributions that minimize estimation error with respect to different performance measures such as error rate, mean squared error, and F-measures. An analysis of the distribution that governs the estimator leads to confidence intervals, which indicate how precise the error estimation is. Labeling costs may vary across different instances depending on certain characteristics of the data. For instance, documents differ in their length, comprehensibility, and technical requirements; these attributes affect the time a human labeler needs to judge relevance or to assign topics. To address this, the sampling distribution is extended to incorporate instance-specific costs. We empirically study conditions under which the active evaluation processes are more accurate than a standard estimate that draws equally many instances from the test distribution. We also address the problem of comparing the risks of two predictive models. The standard approach would be to draw instances according to the test distribution, label the selected instances, and apply statistical tests to identify significant differences. Drawing instances according to an instrumental distribution affects the power of a statistical test. We derive a sampling procedure that maximizes test power when used to select instances, and thereby minimizes the likelihood of choosing the inferior model. Furthermore, we investigate the task of comparing several alternative models; the objective of an evaluation could be to rank the models according to the risk that they incur or to identify the model with lowest risk. An experimental study shows that the active procedure leads to higher test power than the standard test in many application domains. Finally, we study the problem of evaluating the performance of ranking functions, which are used for example for web search. In practice, ranking performance is estimated by applying a given ranking model to a representative set of test queries and manually assessing the relevance of all retrieved items for each query. We apply the concepts of active evaluation and active comparison to ranking functions and derive optimal sampling distributions for the commonly used performance measures Discounted Cumulative Gain and Expected Reciprocal Rank. Experiments on web search engine data illustrate significant reductions in labeling costs.
The potential increase in frequency and magnitude of extreme floods is currently discussed in terms of global warming and the intensification of the hydrological cycle. The profound knowledge of past natural variability of floods is of utmost importance in order to assess flood risk for the future. Since instrumental flood series cover only the last ~150 years, other approaches to reconstruct historical and pre-historical flood events are needed. Annually laminated (varved) lake sediments are meaningful natural geoarchives because they provide continuous records of environmental changes > 10000 years down to a seasonal resolution. Since lake basins additionally act as natural sediment traps, the riverine sediment supply, which is preserved as detrital event layers in the lake sediments, can be used as a proxy for extreme discharge events. Within my thesis I examined a ~ 8.50 m long sedimentary record from the pre-Alpine Lake Mondsee (Northeast European Alps), which covered the last 7000 years. This sediment record consists of calcite varves and intercalated detrital layers, which range in thickness from 0.05 to 32 mm. Detrital layer deposition was analysed by a combined method of microfacies analysis via thin sections, Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM), μX-ray fluorescence (μXRF) scanning and magnetic susceptibility. This approach allows characterizing individual detrital event layers and assigning a corresponding input mechanism and catchment. Based on varve counting and controlled by 14C age dates, the main goals of this thesis are (i) to identify seasonal runoff processes, which lead to significant sediment supply from the catchment into the lake basin and (ii) to investigate flood frequency under changing climate boundary conditions. This thesis follows a line of different time slices, presenting an integrative approach linking instrumental and historical flood data from Lake Mondsee in order to evaluate the flood record inferred from Lake Mondsee sediments. The investigation of eleven short cores covering the last 100 years reveals the abundance of 12 detrital layers. Therein, two types of detrital layers are distinguished by grain size, geochemical composition and distribution pattern within the lake basin. Detrital layers, which are enriched in siliciclastic and dolomitic material, reveal sediment supply from the Flysch sediments and Northern Calcareous Alps into the lake basin. These layers are thicker in the northern lake basin (0.1-3.9 mm) and thinner in the southern lake basin (0.05-1.6 mm). Detrital layers, which are enriched in dolomitic components forming graded detrital layers (turbidites), indicate the provenance from the Northern Calcareous Alps. These layers are generally thicker (0.65-32 mm) and are solely recorded within the southern lake basin. In comparison with instrumental data, thicker graded layers result from local debris flow events in summer, whereas thin layers are deposited during regional flood events in spring/summer. Extreme summer floods as reported from flood layer deposition are principally caused by cyclonic activity from the Mediterranean Sea, e.g. July 1954, July 1997 and August 2002. During the last two millennia, Lake Mondsee sediments reveal two significant flood intervals with decadal-scale flood episodes, during the Dark Ages Cold Period (DACP) and the transition from the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) into the Little Ice Age (LIA) suggesting a linkage of transition to climate cooling and summer flood recurrences in the Northeastern Alps. In contrast, intermediate or decreased flood episodes appeared during the MWP and the LIA. This indicates a non-straightforward relationship between temperature and flood recurrence, suggesting higher cyclonic activity during climate transition in the Northeast Alps. The 7000-year flood chronology reveals 47 debris flows and 269 floods, with increased flood activity shifting around 3500 and 1500 varve yr BP (varve yr BP = varve years before present, before present = AD 1950). This significant increase in flood activity shows a coincidence with millennial-scale climate cooling that is reported from main Alpine glacier advances and lower tree lines in the European Alps since about 3300 cal. yr BP (calibrated years before present). Despite relatively low flood occurrence prior to 1500 varve yr BP, floods at Lake Mondsee could have also influenced human life in early Neolithic lake dwellings (5750-4750 cal. yr BP). While the first lake dwellings were constructed on wetlands, the later lake dwellings were built on piles in the water suggesting an early flood risk adaptation of humans and/or a general change of the Late Neolithic Culture of lake-dwellers because of socio-economic reasons. However, a direct relationship between the final abandonment of the lake dwellings and higher flood frequencies is not evidenced.
A discrete analogue of the Witten Laplacian on the n-dimensional integer lattice is considered. After rescaling of the operator and the lattice size we analyze the tunnel effect between different wells, providing sharp asymptotics of the low-lying spectrum. Our proof, inspired by work of B. Helffer, M. Klein and F. Nier in continuous setting, is based on the construction of a discrete Witten complex and a semiclassical analysis of the corresponding discrete Witten Laplacian on 1-forms. The result can be reformulated in terms of metastable Markov processes on the lattice.
This study follows the debate in comparative public administration research on the role of advisory arrangements in central governments. The aim of this study is to explain the mechanisms by which these actors gain their alleged role in government decision-making. Hence, it analyses advisory arrangements that are proactively involved in executive decision-making and may compete with the permanent bureaucracy by offering policy advice to political executives. The study argues that these advisory arrangements influence government policy-making by "institutional politics", i.e. by shaping the institutional underpinnings to govern or rather the "rules of the executive game" in order to strengthen their own position or that of their clients. The theoretical argument of this study follows the neo-institutionalist turn in organization theory and defines institutional politics as gradual institutionalization processes between institutions and organizational actors. It applies a broader definition of institutions as sets of regulative, normative and cognitive pillars. Following the "power-distributional approach" such gradual institutionalization processes are influenced by structure-oriented characteristics, i.e. the nature of the objects of institutional politics, in particular the freedom of interpretation in their application, as well as the distinct constraints of the institutional context. In addition, institutional politics are influenced by agency-oriented characteristics, i.e. the ambitions of actors to act as "would-be change agents". These two explanatory dimensions result in four ideal-typical mechanisms of institutional politics: layering, displacement, drift, and conversion, which correspond to four ideal-types of would-be change agents. The study examines the ambitions of advisory arrangements in institutional politics in an exploratory manner, the relevance of the institutional context is analyzed via expectation hypotheses on the effects of four institutional context features that are regarded as relevant in the scholarly debate: (1) the party composition of governments, (2) the structuring principles in cabinet, (3) the administrative tradition, and (4) the formal politicization of the ministerial bureaucracy. The study follows a "most similar systems design" and conducts qualitative case studies on the role of advisory arrangements at the center of German and British governments, i.e. the Prime Minister’s Office and the Ministry of Finance, for a longer period (1969/1970-2005). Three time periods are scrutinized per country; the British case studies examine the role of advisory arrangements at the Cabinet Office, the Prime Minister's Office, and the Ministry of Finance under Prime Ministers Heath (1970-74), Thatcher (1979-87) and Blair (1997-2005). The German case studies study the role of advisory arrangements at the Federal Chancellery and the Federal Ministry of Finance during the Brandt government (1969-74), the Kohl government (1982-1987) and the Schröder government (1998-2005). For the empirical analysis, the results of a document analysis and the findings of 75 semi-structured expert interviews have been triangulated. The comparative analysis reveals different patterns of institutional politics. The German advisory arrangements engaged initially in displacement but turned soon towards layering and drift, i.e. after an initial displacement of the pre-existing institutional underpinnings to govern they laid increasingly new elements onto existing ones and took the non-deliberative decision to neglect the adaption of existing rules of the executive game towards changing environmental demands. The British advisory arrangements were mostly involved in displacement and conversion, despite occasional layering, i.e. they displaced the pre-existing institutional underpinnings to govern with new rules of the executive game and transformed and realigned them, sometimes also layering new elements onto pre-existing ones. The structure- and agency-oriented characteristics explain these patterns of institutional politics. First, the study shows that the institutional context limits the institutional politics in Germany and facilitates the institutional politics in the UK. Second, the freedom of interpreting the application of institutional targets is relevant and could be observed via the different ambitions of advisory arrangements across countries and over time, confirming, third, that the interests of such would-be change agents are likewise important to understand the patterns of institutional politics. The study concludes that the role of advisory arrangements in government policy-making rests not only upon their policy-related, party-political or media-advisory role for political executives, but especially upon their activities in institutional politics, resulting in distinct institutional constraints on all actors in government policy-making – including their own role in these processes.
Thermodynamics, kinetics and rheology of surfactant adsorption layers at water/oil interfaces
(2012)
Kommunales cash pooling
(2012)