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Spotlight on the underdogs
(2017)
Alternaria (A.) is a genus of widespread fungi capable of producing numerous, possibly health-endangering Alternaria toxins (ATs), which are usually not the focus of attention. The formation of ATs depends on the species and complex interactions of various environmental factors and is not fully understood. In this study the influence of temperature (7 °C, 25 °C), substrate (rice, wheat kernels) and incubation time (4, 7, and 14 days) on the production of thirteen ATs and three sulfoconjugated ATs by three different Alternaria isolates from the species groups A. tenuissima and A. infectoria was determined. High-performance liquid chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry was used for quantification. Under nearly all conditions, tenuazonic acid was the most extensively produced toxin. At 25 °C and with increasing incubation time all toxins were formed in high amounts by the two A. tenuissima strains on both substrates with comparable mycotoxin profiles. However, for some of the toxins, stagnation or a decrease in production was observed from day 7 to 14. As opposed to the A. tenuissima strains, the A. infectoria strain only produced low amounts of ATs, but high concentrations of stemphyltoxin III. The results provide an essential insight into the quantitative in vitro AT formation under different environmental conditions, potentially transferable to different field and storage conditions
In einer prospektiven Längsschnittstudie wurden Auswirkungen früher psychosozialer Risiken bis ins junge Erwachsenenalter untersucht und dabei die Rolle von affektiver und behavioraler Dysregulation im Kindesalter als vermittelndem Faktor überprüft. Drei Monate nach der Geburt wurde das Vorliegen von 11 psychosozialen Belastungsfaktoren erfasst. Im Alter von 8 – 15 Jahren wurde dreimal das Child Behavior Checklist-Dysregulationsprofil (CBCL-DP) erhoben. Mit 25 Jahren wurde ein Strukturiertes Klinisches Interview durchgeführt und 309 der Teilnehmer füllten den Young Adult Self-Report aus. Frühe psychosoziale Risiken gingen mit einem erhöhten Risiko für das Vorliegen eines Substanzmissbrauchs im jungen Erwachsenenalter sowie mit erhöhtem externalisierendem und internalisierendem Problemverhalten einher. Der Zusammenhang zwischen frühen psychosozialen Risiken und späterem externalisierendem bzw. internalisierendem Problemverhalten wurde durch das CBCL-DP vermittelt.
Die langfristigen Auswirkungen von Frühgeburtlichkeit auf kognitive Entwicklung und Schulerfolg
(2017)
In einer prospektiven Längsschnittstudie wurde der Zusammenhang zwischen früher Responsivität der Mutter und kognitiver Entwicklung ihrer früh- bzw. reifgeborenen Kinder untersucht. Im Alter von drei Monaten wurde dafür die Mutter-Kind-Interaktion mittels Verhaltensbeobachtung erfasst. Bei n=351 der teilnehmenden Kinder (101 frühgeboren) wurde die allgemeine Intelligenz (IQ) im Alter von 11 Jahren und bei n=313 (85 frühgeboren) zusätzlich der höchste erreichte Schulabschluss bis 25 Jahren erhoben. Frühgeborene wiesen mit 11 Jahren einen signifikant niedrigeren IQ als Reifgeborene auf, nachdem für mögliche konfundierende Faktoren kontrolliert worden war. Nur bei Früh-, nicht aber bei Reifgeborenen zeigte sich ein signifikanter positiver Zusammenhang zwischen mütterlicher Responsivität und IQ. Für die Wahrscheinlichkeit einen höheren Schulabschluss (mind. Fachabitur) zu erreichen, fand sich weder ein signifikanter Effekt von Frühgeburtlichkeit noch von mütterlicher Responsivität.
Organic matter deposited in ancient, ice-rich permafrost sediments is vulnerable to climate change and may contribute to the future release of greenhouse gases; it is thus important to get a better characterization of the plant organic matter within such sediments. From a Late Quaternary permafrost sediment core from the Buor Khaya Peninsula, we analysed plant-derived sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) to identify the taxonomic composition of plant organic matter, and undertook palynological analysis to assess the environmental conditions during deposition. Using sedaDNA, we identified 154 taxa and from pollen and non-pollen palynomorphs we identified 83 taxa. In the deposits dated between 54 and 51 kyr BP, sedaDNA records a diverse low-centred polygon plant community including recurring aquatic pond vegetation while from the pollen record we infer terrestrial open-land vegetation with relatively dry environmental conditions at a regional scale. A fluctuating dominance of either terrestrial or swamp and aquatic taxa in both proxies allowed the local hydrological development of the polygon to be traced. In deposits dated between 11.4 and 9.7 kyr BP (13.4-11.1 cal kyr BP), sedaDNA shows a taxonomic turnover to moist shrub tundra and a lower taxonomic richness compared to the older samples. Pollen also records a shrub tundra community, mostly seen as changes in relative proportions of the most dominant taxa, while a decrease in taxonomic richness was less pronounced compared to sedaDNA. Our results show the advantages of using sedaDNA in combination with palynological analyses when macrofossils are rarely preserved. The high resolution of the sedaDNA record provides a detailed picture of the taxonomic composition of plant-derived organic matter throughout the core, and palynological analyses prove valuable by allowing for inferences of regional environmental conditions.
Mosses are a major component of the arctic vegetation, particularly in wetlands. We present C / N atomic ratio, delta C-13 and delta N-15 data of 400 brown-moss samples belonging to 10 species that were collected along hydrological gradients within polygonal mires located on the southern Taymyr Peninsula and the Lena River delta in northern Siberia. Additionally, n-alkane patterns of six of these species (16 samples) were investigated. The aim of the study is to see whether the inter-and intraspecific differences in C / N, isotopic compositions and n-alkanes are indicative of habitat, particularly with respect to water level. Overall, we find high variability in all investigated parameters for two different moisture-related groups of moss species. The C / N ratios range between 11 and 53 (median: 32) and show large variations at the intraspecific level. However, species preferring a dry habitat (xero-mesophilic mosses) show higher C / N ratios than those preferring a wet habitat (meso-hygrophilic mosses). The delta C-13 values range between 37.0 and 22.5% (median D 27.8 %). The delta N-15 values range between 6.6 and C 1.7%(median D 2.2 %). We find differences in delta C-13 and delta N-15 compositions between both habitat types. For some species of the meso-hygrophilic group, we suggest that a relationship between the individ-ual habitat water level and isotopic composition can be inferred as a function of microbial symbiosis. The n-alkane distribution also shows differences primarily between xeromesophilic and meso-hygrophilic mosses, i. e. having a dominance of n-alkanes with long (n-C29, n-C31 /and intermediate (n-C25 /chain lengths, respectively. Overall, our results reveal that C / N ratios, isotopic signals and n-alkanes of studied brown-moss taxa from polygonal wetlands are characteristic of their habitat.
The all-female Amazon molly (Poecilia formosa) is the result of a hybridization of the Atlantic molly (P. mexicana) and the sailfin molly (P. latipinna) approximately 120,000 years ago. As a gynogenetic species, P. formosa needs to copulate with heterospecific males including males from one of its bisexual ancestral species. However, the sperm only triggers embryogenesis of the diploid eggs. The genetic information of the sperm donor typically will not contribute to the next generation of P. formosa. Hence, P. formosa possesses generally one allele from each of its ancestral species at any genetic locus. This raises the question whether both ancestral alleles are equally expressed in P. formosa. Allele-specific expression (ASE) has been previously assessed in various organisms, e.g., human and fish, and ASE was found to be important in the context of phenotypic variability and disease. In this study, we utilized Real-Time PCR techniques to estimate ASE of the androgen receptor alpha (arα) gene in several distinct tissues of Amazon mollies. We found an allelic bias favoring the maternal ancestor (P. mexicana) allele in ovarian tissue. This allelic bias was not observed in the gill or the brain tissue. Sequencing of the promoter regions of both alleles revealed an association between an Indel in a known CpG island and differential expression. Future studies may reveal whether our observed cis-regulatory divergence is caused by an ovary-specific trans-regulatory element, preferentially activating the allele of the maternal ancestor.
Ionogels (IGs) based on poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) and the metal-containing ionic liquids (ILs) bis-1-butyl-3-methlimidazolium tetrachloridocuprate(II), tetrachloride cobaltate(II), and tetrachlorido manganate(II) have been synthesized and their mechanical and electrical properties have been correlated with their microstructure. Unlike many previous examples, the current IGs show a decreasing stability in stress-strain experiments on increasing IL fractions. The conductivities of the current IGs are lower than those observed in similar examples in the literature. Both effects are caused by a two-phase structure with micrometer-sized IL-rich domains homogeneously dispersed an IL-deficient continuous PMMA phase. This study demonstrates that the IL-polymer miscibility and the morphology of the IGs are key parameters to control the (macroscopic) properties of IGs.
We consider synchronization properties of arrays of spin-torque nano-oscillators coupled via an RC load. We show that while the fully synchronized state of identical oscillators may be locally stable in some parameter range, this synchrony is not globally attracting. Instead, regimes of different levels of compositional complexity are observed. These include chimera states (a part of the array forms a cluster while other units are desynchronized), clustered chimeras (several clusters plus desynchronized oscillators), cluster state (all oscillators form several clusters), and partial synchronization (no clusters but a nonvanishing mean field). Dynamically, these states are also complex, demonstrating irregular and close to quasiperiodic modulation. Remarkably, when heterogeneity of spin-torque oscillators is taken into account, dynamical complexity even increases: close to the onset of a macroscopic mean field, the dynamics of this field is rather irregular.
Molecularly imprinted polymers (MIPs) have the potential to complement antibodies in bioanalysis, are more stable under harsh conditions, and are potentially cheaper to produce. However, the affinity and especially the selectivity of MIPs are in general lower than those of their biological pendants. Enzymes are useful tools for the preparation of MIPs for both low and high-molecular weight targets: As a green alternative to the well-established methods of chemical polymerization, enzyme-initiated polymerization has been introduced and the removal of protein templates by proteases has been successfully applied. Furthermore, MIPs have been coupled with enzymes in order to enhance the analytical performance of biomimetic sensors: Enzymes have been used in MIP-sensors as tracers for the generation and amplification of the measuring signal. In addition, enzymatic pretreatment of an analyte can extend the analyte spectrum and eliminate interferences.
Shifts among Eukaryota, Bacteria, and Archaea define the vertical organization of a lake sediment
(2017)
Background
Lake sediments harbor diverse microbial communities that cycle carbon and nutrients while being constantly colonized and potentially buried by organic matter sinking from the water column. The interaction of activity and burial remained largely unexplored in aquatic sediments. We aimed to relate taxonomic composition to sediment biogeochemical parameters, test whether community turnover with depth resulted from taxonomic replacement or from richness effects, and to provide a basic model for the vertical community structure in sediments.
Methods
We analyzed four replicate sediment cores taken from 30-m depth in oligo-mesotrophic Lake Stechlin in northern Germany. Each 30-cm core spanned ca. 170 years of sediment accumulation according to 137Cs dating and was sectioned into layers 1–4 cm thick. We examined a full suite of biogeochemical parameters and used DNA metabarcoding to examine community composition of microbial Archaea, Bacteria, and Eukaryota.
Results
Community β-diversity indicated nearly complete turnover within the uppermost 30 cm. We observed a pronounced shift from Eukaryota- and Bacteria-dominated upper layers (<5 cm) to Bacteria-dominated intermediate layers (5–14 cm) and to deep layers (>14 cm) dominated by enigmatic Archaea that typically occur in deep-sea sediments. Taxonomic replacement was the prevalent mechanism in structuring the community composition and was linked to parameters indicative of microbial activity (e.g., CO2 and CH4 concentration, bacterial protein production). Richness loss played a lesser role but was linked to conservative parameters (e.g., C, N, P) indicative of past conditions.
Conclusions
By including all three domains, we were able to directly link the exponential decay of eukaryotes with the active sediment microbial community. The dominance of Archaea in deeper layers confirms earlier findings from marine systems and establishes freshwater sediments as a potential low-energy environment, similar to deep sea sediments. We propose a general model of sediment structure and function based on microbial characteristics and burial processes. An upper “replacement horizon” is dominated by rapid taxonomic turnover with depth, high microbial activity, and biotic interactions. A lower “depauperate horizon” is characterized by low taxonomic richness, more stable “low-energy” conditions, and a dominance of enigmatic Archaea.
Background: Healthy university students have been shown to use psychoactive substances, expecting them to be functional means for enhancing their cognitive capacity, sometimes over and above an essentially proficient level. This behavior called Neuroenhancement (NE) has not yet been integrated into a behavioral theory that is able to predict performance. Job Demands Resources (JD-R) Theory for example assumes that strain (e.g. burnout) will occur and influence performance when job demands are high and job resources are limited at the same time. The aim of this study is to investigate whether or not university students’ self-reported NE can be integrated into JD-R Theory’s comprehensive approach to psychological health and performance.
Methods: 1,007 students (23.56 ± 3.83 years old, 637 female) participated in an online survey. Lifestyle drug, prescription drug, and illicit substance NE together with the complete set of JD-R variables (demands, burnout, resources, motivation, and performance) were measured. Path models were used in order to test our data’s fit to hypothesized main effects and interactions.
Results: JD-R Theory could successfully be applied to describe the situation of university students. NE was mainly associated with the JD-R Theory’s health impairment process: Lifestyle drug NE (p < .05) as well as prescription drug NE (p < .001) is associated with higher burnout scores, and lifestyle drug NE aggravates the study demands-burnout interaction. In addition, prescription drug NE mitigates the protective influence of resources on burnout and on motivation.
Conclusion: According to our results, the uninformed trying of NE (i.e., without medical supervision) might result in strain. Increased strain is related to decreased performance. From a public health perspective, intervention strategies should address these costs of non-supervised NE. With regard to future research we propose to model NE as a means to reach an end (i.e. performance enhancement) rather than a target behavior itself. This is necessary to provide a deeper understanding of the behavioral roots and consequences of the phenomenon.
Molecules often fragment after photoionization in the gas phase. Usually, this process can only be investigated spectroscopically as long as there exists electron correlation between the photofragments. Important parameters, like their kinetic energy after separation, cannot be investigated. We are reporting on a femtosecond time-resolved Auger electron spectroscopy study concerning the photofragmentation dynamics of thymine. We observe the appearance of clearly distinguishable signatures from thymine′s neutral photofragment isocyanic acid. Furthermore, we observe a time-dependent shift of its spectrum, which we can attribute to the influence of the charged fragment on the Auger electron. This allows us to map our time-dependent dataset onto the fragmentation coordinate. The time dependence of the shift supports efficient transformation of the excess energy gained from photoionization into kinetic energy of the fragments. Our method is broadly applicable to the investigation of photofragmentation processes.
Decades of research have demonstrated that physical stress (PS) stimulates bone remodeling and affects bone structure and function through complex mechanotransduction mechanisms. Recent research has laid ground to the hypothesis that mental stress (MS) also influences bone biology, eventually leading to osteoporosis and increased bone fracture risk. These effects are likely exerted by modulation of hypothalamic–pituitary–adrenal axis activity, resulting in an altered release of growth hormones, glucocorticoids and cytokines, as demonstrated in human and animal studies. Furthermore, molecular cross talk between mental and PS is thought to exist, with either synergistic or preventative effects on bone disease progression depending on the characteristics of the applied stressor. This mini review will explain the emerging concept of MS as an important player in bone adaptation and its potential cross talk with PS by summarizing the current state of knowledge, highlighting newly evolving notions (such as intergenerational transmission of stress and its epigenetic modifications affecting bone) and proposing new research directions.
Introduction: Chronic low back pain (LBP) is a major cause of disability; early diagnosis and stratification of care remain challenges.
Objectives: This article describes the development of a screening tool for the 1-year prognosis of patients with high chronic LBP risk (risk stratification index) and for treatment allocation according to treatment-modifiable yellow flag indicators (risk prevention indices, RPI-S).
Methods: Screening tools were derived from a multicentre longitudinal study (n = 1071, age >18, intermittent LBP). The greatest prognostic predictors of 4 flag domains ("pain," "distress," "social-environment," "medical care-environment") were determined using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression analysis. Internal validity and prognosis error were evaluated after 1-year follow-up. Receiver operating characteristic curves for discrimination (area under the curve) and cutoff values were determined.
Results: The risk stratification index identified persons with increased risk of chronic LBP and accurately estimated expected pain intensity and disability on the Pain Grade Questionnaire (0-100 points) up to 1 year later with an average prognosis error of 15 points. In addition, 3-risk classes were discerned with an accuracy of area under the curve = 0.74 (95% confidence interval 0.63-0.85). The RPI-S also distinguished persons with potentially modifiable prognostic indicators from 4 flag domains and stratified allocation to biopsychosocial treatments accordingly.
Conclusion: The screening tools, developed in compliance with the PROGRESS and TRIPOD statements, revealed good validation and prognostic strength. These tools improve on existing screening tools because of their utility for secondary preventions, incorporation of exercise effect modifiers, exact pain estimations, and personalized allocation to multimodal treatments.
Objectives: Chronic back pain (CBP) can lead to disability and burden. In addition to its medical causes, its development is influenced by psychosocial risk factors, the so-called flag factors, which are categorized and integrated into many treatment guidelines. Currently, most studies investigate single flag factors, which limit the estimation of individual factor significance in the development of chronic pain. Furthermore, factors concerning patients’ lifestyle, biography and treatment history are often neglected. Therefore, the objectives of the present study are to identify commonly neglected factors of CBP and integrate them into an analysis model comparing their significance with established flag factors.
Methods: A total of 24 patients and therapists were cross-sectionally interviewed to identify commonly neglected factors of CBP. Subsequently, the impact of these factors was surveyed in a longitudinal study. In two rehabilitation clinics, CBP patients (n = 145) were examined before and 6 months after a 3-week inpatient rehabilitation. Outcome variables, chronification factor pain experience (CF-PE) and chronification factor disability (CF-D), were ascertained with confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) of standardized questionnaires. Predictors were evaluated using stepwise calculations of simple and multiple regression models.
Results: Through interviews, medical history, iatrogenic factors, poor compliance, critical life events (LEs), social support (SS) type and effort–reward were identified as commonly neglected factors. However, only the final three held significance in comparison to established factors such as depression and pain-related cognitions. Longitudinally, lifestyle factors found to influence future pain were initial pain, physically demanding work, nicotine consumption, gender and rehabilitation clinic. LEs were unexpectedly found to be a strong predictor of future pain, as were the protective factors, reward at work and perceived SS.
Discussion: These findings shed insight regarding often overlooked factors in the development of CBP, suggesting that more detailed operationalization and superordinate frameworks would be beneficial to further research.
Conclusion: In particular, LEs should be taken into account in future research. Protective factors should be integrated in therapeutic settings.
Many studies demonstrated interactions between number processing and either spatial codes (effects of spatial-numerical associations) or visual size-related codes (size-congruity effect). However, the interrelatedness of these two number couplings is still unclear. The present study examines the simultaneous occurrence of space- and size-numerical congruency effects and their interactions both within and across trials, in a magnitude judgment task physically small or large digits were presented left or right from screen center. The reaction times analysis revealed that space- and size-congruency effects coexisted in parallel and combined additively. Moreover, a selective sequential modulation of the two congruency effects was found. The size-congruency effect was reduced after size incongruent trials. The space-congruency effect, however, was only affected by the previous space congruency. The observed independence of spatial-numerical and within magnitude associations is interpreted as evidence that the two couplings reflect Different attributes of numerical meaning possibly related to orginality and cardinality.
Background
Proficiency in fundamental movement skills (FMS) lays the foundation for being physically active and developing more complex motor skills. Improving these motor skills may provide enhanced opportunities for the development of a variety of perceptual, social, and cognitive skills.
Objective
The objective of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to assess the effects of FMS interventions on actual FMS, targeting typically developing young children.
Method
Searches in seven databases (CINAHL, Embase, MEDLINE, PsycINFO, PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science) up to August 2015 were completed. Trials with children (aged 2-6 years) in childcare or kindergarten settings that applied FMS-enhancing intervention programs of at least 4 weeks and meeting the inclusion criteria were included. Standardized data extraction forms were used. Risk of bias was assessed using a standard scoring scheme (Effective Public Health Practice Project-Quality Assessment Tool for Quantitative Studies [EPHPP]). We calculated effects on overall FMS, object control and locomotor subscales (OCS and LMS) by weighted standardized mean differences (SMDbetween) using random-effects models. Certainty in training effects was evaluated using GRADE (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation System).
Results
Thirty trials (15 randomized controlled trials and 15 controlled trials) involving 6126 preschoolers (aged 3.3-5.5 years) revealed significant differences among groups in favor of the intervention group (INT) with small-to-large effects on overall FMS (SMDbetween 0.46), OCS (SMDbetween 1.36), and LMS (SMDbetween 0.94). Our certainty in the treatment estimates based on GRADE is very low.
Conclusions
Although there is relevant effectiveness of programs to improve FMS proficiency in healthy young children, they need to be interpreted with care as they are based on low-quality evidence and immediate post-intervention effects without long-term follow-up.
The present study explored teachers' perspectives on one specific type of acceleration, namely, grade skipping. In addition, we investigated the extent to which teachers' beliefs about students' academic, motivational, and social development after grade skipping may explain teachers' acceptance of this accelerative strategy. Moreover, we examined whether teachers' acceptance is linked to their decisions about using this intervention. Using data from the PARS project, which included 316 teachers from 18 secondary schools in the German federal state of North Rhine-Westphalia, we assessed teachers' acceptance, beliefs, and perceived knowledge about grade skipping using 4-point rating scales. Teachers also reported whether they had advised a student to skip a grade. Multilevel regression analyses indicated that teachers' beliefs about students' social, motivational, and academic development largely explained their acceptance. Teachers who showed a higher level of acceptance and perceived knowledge were more likely to have recommended grade skipping before. Educational implications are discussed.
The unusual mix of morphological traits displayed by extinct South American native ungulates (SANUs) confounded both Charles Darwin, who first discovered them, and Richard Owen, who tried to resolve their relationships. Here we report an almost complete mitochondrial genome for the litoptern Macrauchenia. Our dated phylogenetic tree places Macrauchenia as sister to Perissodactyla, but close to the radiation of major lineages within Laurasiatheria. This position is consistent with a divergence estimate of B66Ma (95% credibility interval, 56.64-77.83 Ma) obtained for the split between Macrauchenia and other Panperissodactyla. Combined with their morphological distinctiveness, this evidence supports the positioning of Litopterna (possibly in company with other SANU groups) as a separate order within Laurasiatheria. We also show that, when using strict criteria, extinct taxa marked by deep divergence times and a lack of close living relatives may still be amenable to palaeogenomic analysis through iterative mapping against more distant relatives.
A particular form of social pain is invalidation. Therefore, this study (a) investigates whether patients with chronic low back pain experience invalidation, (b) if it has an influence on their pain, and (c) explores whether various social sources (e.g. partner and work) influence physical pain differentially. A total of 92 patients completed questionnaires, and for analysis, Pearson's correlation coefficients and hierarchical linear regression analyses were conducted. They indicated a significant association between discounting and disability due to pain (respective =.29, p>.05). Especially, discounting by partner was linked to higher disability (=.28, p>.05).
This review analyzes the potential role and long-term effects of field perennial polycultures (mixtures) in agricultural systems, with the aim of reducing the trade-offs between provisioning and regulating ecosystem services. First, crop rotations are identified as a suitable tool for the assessment of the long-term effects of perennial polycultures on ecosystem services, which are not visible at the single-crop level. Second, the ability of perennial polycultures to support ecosystem services when used in crop rotations is quantified through eight agricultural ecosystem services. Legume-grass mixtures and wildflower mixtures are used as examples of perennial polycultures, and compared with silage maize as a typical crop for biomass production. Perennial polycultures enhance soil fertility, soil protection, climate regulation, pollination, pest and weed control, and landscape aesthetics compared with maize. They also score lower for biomass production compared with maize, which confirms the trade-off between provisioning and regulating ecosystem services. However, the additional positive factors provided by perennial polycultures, such as reduced costs for mineral fertilizer, pesticides, and soil tillage, and a significant preceding crop effect that increases the yields of subsequent crops, should be taken into account. However, a full assessment of agricultural ecosystem services requires a more holistic analysis that is beyond the capabilities of current frameworks.
Background: There is an increasing awareness of the impact of parental risk perception on the weight course of the child and the parent's readiness to engage in preventive efforts, but only less is known about factors related to the parental perception of the right time for the implementation of preventive activities. The aim of this study was to examine parental perceptions of the appropriate time to engage in child weight management strategies, and the factors associated with different weight points at which mothers recognize the need for preventive actions.
Methods: 352 mothers with children aged 2-10 years took part in the study. We assessed mothers' perceptions of the actual and preferred weight status of their child, their ability to identify overweight and knowledge of its associated health risks, as well as perceptions of the right time for action to prevent overweight in their child. A regression analysis was conducted to examine whether demographic and weight related factors as well as the maternal general risk perception were associated with recognizing the need to implement prevention strategies.
Results: Although most of the parents considered a BMI in the 75th to 90th percentile a valid reason to engage in the prevention of overweight, 19% of the mothers were not willing to engage in prevention until their child reached the 97th percentile. Whereas the child's sex and the identification of an elevated BMI were significant predictors for parents' recognition of the 75th percentile as right point to engage in prevention efforts, an inability to recognize physical health risks associated with overweight silhouettes emerged as a significant factor predicting which parents would delay prevention efforts until a child's BMI reached the 97th percentile.
Conclusion: Parental misperceptions of overweight and associated health risks constitute unfavorable conditions for preventive actions. Feedback on the health risks associated with overweight could help increase maternal readiness for change.
Background: Functional abdominal pain (FAP) is not only a highly prevalent disease but also poses a considerable burden on children and their families. Untreated, FAP is highly persistent until adulthood, also leading to an increased risk of psychiatric disorders. Intervention studies underscore the efficacy of cognitive behavioral treatment approaches but are limited in terms of sample size, long-term follow-up data, controls and inclusion of psychosocial outcome data.
Methods/Design: In a multicenter randomized controlled trial, 112 children aged 7 to 12 years who fulfill the Rome III criteria for FAP will be allocated to an established cognitive behavioral training program for children with FAP (n = 56) or to an active control group (focusing on age-appropriate information delivery; n = 56). Randomization occurs centrally, blockwise and is stratified by center. This study is performed in five pediatric gastroenterology outpatient departments. Observer-blind assessments of outcome variables take place four times: pre-, post-, 3- and 12-months post-treatment. Primary outcome is the course of pain intensity and frequency. Secondary endpoints are health-related quality of life, pain-related coping and cognitions, as well as selfefficacy.
Discussion: This confirmatory randomized controlled clinical trial evaluates the efficacy of a cognitive behavioral intervention for children with FAP. By applying an active control group, time and attention processes can be controlled, and long-term follow-up data over the course of one year can be explored.
Background: Obesity is not only a highly prevalent disease but also poses a considerable burden on children and their families. Evidence is increasing that a lack of self-regulation skills may play a role in the etiology and maintenance of obesity. Our goal with this currently ongoing trial is to examine whether training that focuses on the enhancement of self-regulation skills may increase the sustainability of a complex lifestyle intervention.
Methods/Design: In a multicenter, prospective, parallel group, randomized controlled superiority trial, 226 obese children and adolescents aged 8 to 16 years will be allocated either to a newly developed computer-training program to improve their self-regulation abilities or to a placebo control group. Randomization occurs centrally and blockwise at a 1:1 allocation ratio for each center. This study is performed in pediatric inpatient rehabilitation facilities specialized in the treatment of obesity. Observer-blind assessments of outcome variables take place at four times: at the beginning of the rehabilitation (pre), at the end of the training in the rehabilitation (post), and 6 and 12 months post-rehabilitation intervention. The primary outcome is the course of BMI-SDS over 1 year after the end of the inpatient rehabilitation. Secondary endpoints are the self-regulation skills. In addition, health-related quality of life, and snack intake will be analyzed.
Discussion: The computer-based training programs might be a feasible and attractive tool to increase the sustainability of the weight loss reached during inpatient rehabilitation.
The article presents first results of a pilot study on the syntactic changes in Polish as a language contact in Germany. On the base of the experimental data tests the study examines the syntactic changes in Polish of two diaspora-generations: the so called forgetters and the incomplete learners. The article focuses on the questions: how the situation of languages in contact influences the syntactic changes in the heritage language (Polish) and which status have those syntactic transferences. Other linguistic and sociolinguistic factors, capable to cause the language change in the situation of language contact, are also discussed in the article.
Background
Foot orthoses are usually assumed to be effective by optimizing mechanically dynamic rearfoot configuration. However, the effect from a foot orthosis on kinematics that has been demonstrated scientifically has only been marginal. The aim of this study was to examine the effect of different heights in medial arch-supported foot orthoses on rear foot motion during gait.
Methods
Nineteen asymptomatic runners (36±11years, 180±5cm, 79±10kg; 41±22km/week) participated in the study. Trials were recorded at 3.1 mph (5 km/h) on a treadmill. Athletes walked barefoot and with 4 different not customized medial arch-supported foot orthoses of various arch heights (N:0 mm, M:30 mm, H:35 mm, E:40mm). Six infrared cameras and the `Oxford Foot Model´ were used to capture motion. The average stride in each condition was calculated from 50 gait cycles per condition. Eversion excursion and internal tibia rotation were analyzed. Descriptive statistics included calculating the mean ± SD and 95% CIs. Group differences by condition were analyzed by one factor (foot orthoses) repeated measures ANOVA (α = 0.05).
Results
Eversion excursion revealed the lowest values for N and highest for H (B:4.6°±2.2°; 95% CI [3.1;6.2]/N:4.0°±1.7°; [2.9;5.2]/M:5.2°±2.6°; [3.6;6.8]/H:6.2°±3.3°; [4.0;8.5]/E:5.1°±3.5°; [2.8;7.5]) (p>0.05). Range of internal tibia rotation was lowest with orthosis H and highest with E (B:13.3°±3.2°; 95% CI [11.0;15.6]/N:14.5°±7.2°; [9.2;19.6]/M:13.8°±5.0°; [10.8;16.8]/H:12.3°±4.3°; [9.0;15.6]/E:14.9°±5.0°; [11.5;18.3]) (p>0.05). Differences between conditions were small and the intrasubject variation high.
Conclusion
Our results indicate that different arch support heights have no systematic effect on eversion excursion or the range of internal tibia rotation and therefore might not exert a crucial influence on rear foot alignment during gait.
Frailty is a geriatric syndrome characterised by a vulnerability status associated with declining function of multiple physiological systems and loss of physiological reserves. Two main models of frailty have been advanced: the phenotypic model (primary frailty) or deficits accumulation model (secondary frailty), and different instruments have been proposed and validated to measure frailty. However measured, frailty correlates to medical outcomes in the elderly, and has been shown to have prognostic value for patients in different clinical settings, such as in patients with coronary artery disease, after cardiac surgery or transvalvular aortic valve replacement, in patients with chronic heart failure or after left ventricular assist device implantation.
The prevalence, clinical and prognostic relevance of frailty in a cardiac rehabilitation setting has not yet been well characterised, despite the increasing frequency of elderly patients in cardiac rehabilitation, where frailty is likely to influence the onset, type and intensity of the exercise training programme and the design of tailored rehabilitative interventions for these patients.
Therefore, we need to start looking for frailty in elderly patients entering cardiac rehabilitation programmes and become more familiar with some of the tools to recognise and evaluate the severity of this condition. Furthermore, we need to better understand whether exercise-based cardiac rehabilitation may change the course and the prognosis of frailty in cardiovascular patients.
Is there an ideal time window for language acquisition after which nativelike
representation and processing are unattainable? Although this question has
been heavily debated, no consensus has been reached. Here, we present
evidence for a sensitive period in language development and show that it is
specific to grammar. We conducted a masked priming task with a group of
Turkish-German bilinguals and examined age of acquisition (AoA) effects on
the processing of complex words. We compared a subtle but meaningful
linguistic contrast, that between grammatical inflection and lexical-based
derivation. The results showed a highly selective AoA effect on inflectional
(but not derivational) priming. In addition, the effect displayed a discontinuity
indicative of a sensitive period: Priming from inflected forms was nativelike
when acquisition started before the age of 5 but declined with increasing
AoA. We conclude that the acquisition of morphological rules expressing
morphosyntactic properties is constrained by maturational factors.
In this combined theoretical and experimental study we report a full analysis of the resonant inelastic X-ray scattering (RIXS) spectra of H2O, D2O and HDO. We demonstrate that electronically-elastic RIXS has an inherent capability to map the potential energy surface and to perform vibrational analysis of the electronic ground state in multimode systems. We show that the control and selection of vibrational excitation can be performed by tuning the X-ray frequency across core-excited molecular bands and that this is clearly reflected in the RIXS spectra. Using high level ab initio electronic structure and quantum nuclear wave packet calculations together with high resolution RIXS measurements, we discuss in detail the mode coupling, mode localization and anharmonicity in the studied systems.
Water infiltration in soil is not only affected by the inherent heterogeneities of soil, but even more by the interaction with plant roots and their water uptake. Neutron tomography is a unique non-invasive 3D tool to visualize plant root systems together with the soil water distribution in situ. So far, acquisition times in the range of hours have been the major limitation for imaging 3D water dynamics. Implementing an alternative acquisition procedure we boosted the speed of acquisition capturing an entire tomogram within 10 s. This allows, for the first time, tracking of a water front ascending in a rooted soil column upon infiltration of deuterated water time-resolved in 3D. Image quality and resolution could be sustained to a level allowing for capturing the root system in high detail. Good signal-to-noise ratio and contrast were the key to visualize dynamic changes in water content and to localize the root uptake. We demonstrated the ability of ultra-fast tomography to quantitatively image quick changes of water content in the rhizosphere and outlined the value of such imaging data for 3D water uptake modelling. The presented method paves the way for time-resolved studies of various 3D flow and transport phenomena in porous systems
In Vorbereitung zur Teilnahme am Times Higher Education Ranking hat die Universität Potsdam das Publikationsaufkommen im Rahmen einer Output-Analyse gemessen. Es stellte sich heraus, dass die Angabe der Affiliation, welche die Wissenschaftlerinnen und Wissenschaftler tätigen, eine wichtige Stellschraube zur Ermittlung der Grundzahl ist. Der vorliegende Artikel spiegelt die herausfordernde Ausgangssituation wider.
Water deficit (drought stress) massively restricts plant growth and the yield of crops; reducing the deleterious effects of drought is therefore of high agricultural relevance. Drought triggers diverse cellular processes including the inhibition of photosynthesis, the accumulation of cell‐damaging reactive oxygen species and gene expression reprogramming, besides others. Transcription factors (TF) are central regulators of transcriptional reprogramming and expression of many TF genes is affected by drought, including members of the NAC family. Here, we identify the NAC factor JUNGBRUNNEN1 (JUB1) as a regulator of drought tolerance in tomato (Solanum lycopersicum). Expression of tomato JUB1 (SlJUB1) is enhanced by various abiotic stresses, including drought. Inhibiting SlJUB1 by virus‐induced gene silencing drastically lowers drought tolerance concomitant with an increase in ion leakage, an elevation of hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) levels and a decrease in the expression of various drought‐responsive genes. In contrast, overexpression of AtJUB1 from Arabidopsis thaliana increases drought tolerance in tomato, alongside with a higher relative leaf water content during drought and reduced H2O2 levels. AtJUB1 was previously shown to stimulate expression of DREB2A, a TF involved in drought responses, and of the DELLA genes GAI and RGL1. We show here that SlJUB1 similarly controls the expression of the tomato orthologs SlDREB1, SlDREB2 and SlDELLA. Furthermore, AtJUB1 directly binds to the promoters of SlDREB1, SlDREB2 and SlDELLA in tomato. Our study highlights JUB1 as a transcriptional regulator of drought tolerance and suggests considerable conservation of the abiotic stress‐related gene regulatory networks controlled by this NAC factor between Arabidopsis and tomato.
The effect of cellulose-based polyelectrolytes on biomimetic calcium phosphate mineralization is described. Three cellulose derivatives, a polyanion, a polycation, and a polyzwitterion were used as additives. Scanning electron microscopy, X-ray diffraction, IR and Raman spectroscopy show that, depending on the composition of the starting solution, hydroxyapatite or brushite precipitates form. Infrared and Raman spectroscopy also show that significant amounts of nitrate ions are incorporated in the precipitates. Energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy shows that the Ca/P ratio varies throughout the samples and resembles that of other bioinspired calcium phosphate hybrid materials. Elemental analysis shows that the carbon (i.e., polymer) contents reach 10% in some samples, clearly illustrating the formation of a true hybrid material. Overall, the data indicate that a higher polymer concentration in the reaction mixture favors the formation of polymer-enriched materials, while lower polymer concentrations or high precursor concentrations favor the formation of products that are closely related to the control samples precipitated in the absence of polymer. The results thus highlight the potential of (water-soluble) cellulose derivatives for the synthesis and design of bioinspired and bio-based hybrid materials.
Lafora disease (LD, OMIM #254780) is a rare, recessively inherited neurodegenerative disease with adolescent onset, resulting in progressive myoclonus epilepsy which is fatal usually within ten years of symptom onset. The disease is caused by loss-of-function mutations in either of the two genes EPM2A (laforin) or EPM2B (malin). It characteristically involves the accumulation of insoluble glycogen-derived particles, named Lafora bodies (LBs), which are considered neurotoxic and causative of the disease. The pathogenesis of LD is therefore centred on the question of how insoluble LBs emerge from soluble glycogen. Recent data clearly show that an abnormal glycogen chain length distribution, but neither hyperphosphorylation nor impairment of general autophagy, strictly correlates with glycogen accumulation and the presence of LBs. This review summarizes results obtained with patients, mouse models, and cell lines and consolidates apparent paradoxes in the LD literature. Based on the growing body of evidence, it proposes that LD is predominantly caused by an impairment in chain-length regulation affecting only a small proportion of the cellular glycogen. A better grasp of LD pathogenesis will further develop our understanding of glycogen metabolism and structure. It will also facilitate the development of clinical interventions that appropriately target the underlying cause of LD.
As an emerging sub-field of music information retrieval (MIR), music imagery information retrieval (MIIR) aims to retrieve information from brain activity recorded during music cognition–such as listening to or imagining music pieces. This is a highly inter-disciplinary endeavor that requires expertise in MIR as well as cognitive neuroscience and psychology. The OpenMIIR initiative strives to foster collaborations between these fields to advance the state of the art in MIIR. As a first step, electroencephalography (EEG) recordings of music perception and imagination have been made publicly available, enabling MIR researchers to easily test and adapt their existing approaches for music analysis like fingerprinting, beat tracking or tempo estimation on this new kind of data. This paper reports on first results of MIIR experiments using these OpenMIIR datasets and points out how these findings could drive new research in cognitive neuroscience.
Age-related decline in executive functions and postural control due to degenerative processes in the central nervous system have been related to increased fall-risk in old age. Many studies have shown cognitive-postural dual-task interference in old adults, but research on the role of specific executive functions in this context has just begun. In this study, we addressed the question whether postural control is impaired depending on the coordination of concurrent response-selection processes related to the compatibility of input and output modality mappings as compared to impairments related to working-memory load in the comparison of cognitive dual and single tasks. Specifically, we measured total center of pressure (CoP) displacements in healthy female participants aged 19–30 and 66–84 years while they performed different versions of a spatial one-back working memory task during semi-tandem stance on an unstable surface (i.e., balance pad) while standing on a force plate. The specific working-memory tasks comprised: (i) modality compatible single tasks (i.e., visual-manual or auditory-vocal tasks), (ii) modality compatible dual tasks (i.e., visual-manual and auditory-vocal tasks), (iii) modality incompatible single tasks (i.e., visual-vocal or auditory-manual tasks), and (iv) modality incompatible dual tasks (i.e., visual-vocal and auditory-manual tasks). In addition, participants performed the same tasks while sitting. As expected from previous research, old adults showed generally impaired performance under high working-memory load (i.e., dual vs. single one-back task). In addition, modality compatibility affected one-back performance in dual-task but not in single-task conditions with strikingly pronounced impairments in old adults. Notably, the modality incompatible dual task also resulted in a selective increase in total CoP displacements compared to the modality compatible dual task in the old but not in the young participants. These results suggest that in addition to effects of working-memory load, processes related to simultaneously overcoming special linkages between input- and output modalities interfere with postural control in old but not in young female adults. Our preliminary data provide further evidence for the involvement of cognitive control processes in postural tasks.
Long-term policy issues are a particularly vexing class of environmental policy issues which merit increasing attention due to the long-time horizons involved, the incongruity with political cycles, and the challenges for collective action. Following the definition of long-term environmental policy challenges, I pose three questions as challenges for future research, namely 1. Are present democracies well suited to cope with long-term policy challenges? 2. Are top-down or bottom-up solutions to long-term environmental policy challenges advisable? 3. Will mitigation and adaptation of environmental challenges suffice? In concluding, the contribution raises the issue of credible commitment for long-term policy issues and potential design options.
Flooding is assessed as the most important natural hazard in Europe, causing thousands of deaths, affecting millions of people and accounting for large economic losses in the past decade. Little is known about the damage processes associated with extreme rainfall in cities, due to a lack of accurate, comparable and consistent damage data. The objective of this study is to investigate the impacts of extreme rainfall on residential buildings and how affected households coped with these impacts in terms of precautionary and emergency actions. Analyses are based on a unique dataset of damage characteristics and a wide range of potential damage explaining variables at the household level, collected through computer-aided telephone interviews (CATI) and an online survey. Exploratory data analyses based on a total of 859 completed questionnaires in the cities of Munster (Germany) and Amsterdam (the Netherlands) revealed that the uptake of emergency measures is related to characteristics of the hazardous event. In case of high water levels, more efforts are made to reduce damage, while emergency response that aims to prevent damage is less likely to be effective. The difference in magnitude of the events in Munster and Amsterdam, in terms of rainfall intensity and water depth, is probably also the most important cause for the differences between the cities in terms of the suffered financial losses. Factors that significantly contributed to damage in at least one of the case studies are water contamination, the presence of a basement in the building and people's awareness of the upcoming event. Moreover, this study confirms conclusions by previous studies that people's experience with damaging events positively correlates with precautionary behaviour. For improving future damage data acquisition, we recommend the inclusion of cell phones in a CATI survey to avoid biased sampling towards certain age groups.
High Mountain Asia (HMA) - encompassing the Tibetan Plateau and surrounding mountain ranges - is the primary water source for much of Asia, serving more than a billion downstream users. Many catchments receive the majority of their yearly water budget in the form of snow, which is poorly monitored by sparse in situ weather networks. Both the timing and volume of snowmelt play critical roles in downstream water provision, as many applications - such as agriculture, drinking-water generation, and hydropower - rely on consistent and predictable snowmelt runoff. Here, we examine passive microwave data across HMA with five sensors (SSMI, SSMIS, AMSR-E, AMSR2, and GPM) from 1987 to 2016 to track the timing of the snowmelt season - defined here as the time between maximum passive microwave signal separation and snow clearance. We validated our method against climate model surface temperatures, optical remote-sensing snow-cover data, and a manual control dataset (n = 2100, 3 variables at 25 locations over 28 years); our algorithm is generally accurate within 3-5 days. Using the algorithm-generated snowmelt dates, we examine the spatiotemporal patterns of the snowmelt season across HMA. The climatically short (29-year) time series, along with complex interannual snowfall variations, makes determining trends in snowmelt dates at a single point difficult. We instead identify trends in snowmelt timing by using hierarchical clustering of the passive microwave data to determine trends in self-similar regions. We make the following four key observations. (1) The end of the snowmelt season is trending almost universally earlier in HMA (negative trends). Changes in the end of the snowmelt season are generally between 2 and 8 days decade 1 over the 29-year study period (5-25 days total). The length of the snowmelt season is thus shrinking in many, though not all, regions of HMA. Some areas exhibit later peak signal separation (positive trends), but with generally smaller magnitudes than trends in snowmelt end. (2) Areas with long snowmelt periods, such as the Tibetan Plateau, show the strongest compression of the snowmelt season (negative trends). These trends are apparent regardless of the time period over which the regression is performed. (3) While trends averaged over 3 decades indicate generally earlier snowmelt seasons, data from the last 14 years (2002-2016) exhibit positive trends in many regions, such as parts of the Pamir and Kunlun Shan. Due to the short nature of the time series, it is not clear whether this change is a reversal of a long-term trend or simply interannual variability. (4) Some regions with stable or growing glaciers - such as the Karakoram and Kunlun Shan - see slightly later snowmelt seasons and longer snowmelt periods. It is likely that changes in the snowmelt regime of HMA account for some of the observed heterogeneity in glacier response to climate change. While the decadal increases in regional temperature have in general led to earlier and shortened melt seasons, changes in HMA's cryosphere have been spatially and temporally heterogeneous.
Ancient genomes have revolutionized our understanding of Holocene prehistory and, particularly, the Neolithic transition in western Eurasia. In contrast, East Asia has so far received little attention, despite representing a core region at which the Neolithic transition took place independently similar to 3 millennia after its onset in the Near East. We report genome-wide data from two hunter-gatherers from Devil's Gate, an early Neolithic cave site (dated to similar to 7.7 thousand years ago) located in East Asia, on the border between Russia and Korea. Both of these individuals are genetically most similar to geographically close modern populations from the Amur Basin, all speaking Tungusic languages, and, in particular, to the Ulchi. The similarity to nearby modern populations and the low levels of additional genetic material in the Ulchi imply a high level of genetic continuity in this region during the Holocene, a pattern that markedly contrasts with that reported for Europe.
The Kenya rift revisited
(2017)
We present three-dimensional (3-D) models that describe the present-day thermal and rheological state of the lithosphere of the greater Kenya rift region aiming at a better understanding of the rift evolution, with a particular focus on plume-lithosphere interactions. The key methodology applied is the 3-D integration of diverse geological and geophysical observations using gravity modelling. Accordingly, the resulting lithospheric-scale 3-D density model is consistent with (i) reviewed descriptions of lithological variations in the sedimentary and volcanic cover, (ii) known trends in crust and mantle seismic velocities as revealed by seismic and seismological data and (iii) the observed gravity field. This data-based model is the first to image a 3-D density configuration of the crystalline crust for the entire region of Kenya and northern Tanzania. An upper and a basal crustal layer are differentiated, each composed of several domains of different average densities. We interpret these domains to trace back to the Precambrian terrane amalgamation associated with the East African Orogeny and to magmatic processes during Mesozoic and Cenozoic rifting phases. In combination with seismic velocities, the densities of these crustal domains indicate compositional differences. The derived lithological trends have been used to parameterise steady-state thermal and rheological models. These models indicate that crustal and mantle temperatures decrease from the Kenya rift in the west to eastern Kenya, while the integrated strength of the lithosphere increases. Thereby, the detailed strength configuration appears strongly controlled by the complex inherited crustal structure, which may have been decisive for the onset, localisation and propagation of rifting.
Background
Protected areas are the most common and important instrument for the conservation of biological diversity and are called for under the United Nations' Convention on Biological Diversity. Growing human population densities, intensified land-use, invasive species and increasing habitat fragmentation threaten ecosystems worldwide and protected areas are often the only refuge for endangered species. Climate change is posing an additional threat that may also impact ecosystems currently under protection. Therefore, it is of crucial importance to include the potential impact of climate change when designing future nature conservation strategies and implementing protected area management. This approach would go beyond reactive crisis management and, by necessity, would include anticipatory risk assessments. One avenue for doing so is being provided by simulation models that take advantage of the increase in computing capacity and performance that has occurred over the last two decades.
Here we review the literature to determine the state-of-the-art in modeling terrestrial protected areas under climate change, with the aim of evaluating and detecting trends and gaps in the current approaches being employed, as well as to provide a useful overview and guidelines for future research.
Results
Most studies apply statistical, bioclimatic envelope models and focus primarily on plant species as compared to other taxa. Very few studies utilize a mechanistic, process-based approach and none examine biotic interactions like predation and competition. Important factors like land-use, habitat fragmentation, invasion and dispersal are rarely incorporated, restricting the informative value of the resulting predictions considerably.
Conclusion
The general impression that emerges is that biodiversity conservation in protected areas could benefit from the application of modern modeling approaches to a greater extent than is currently reflected in the scientific literature. It is particularly true that existing models have been underutilized in testing different management options under climate change. Based on these findings we suggest a strategic framework for more effectively incorporating the impact of climate change in models exploring the effectiveness of protected areas.
Mental arithmetic exhibits various biases. Among those is a tendency to overestimate addition and to underestimate subtraction outcomes. Does such “operational momentum” (OM) also affect multiplication and division? Twenty-six adults produced lines whose lengths corresponded to the correct outcomes of multiplication and division problems shown in symbolic format. We found a reliable tendency to over-estimate division outcomes, i.e., reverse OM. We suggest that anchoring on the first operand (a tendency to use this number as a reference for further quantitative reasoning) contributes to cognitive biases in mental arithmetic.
The Limpopo Basin in southern Africa is prone to droughts which affect the livelihood of millions of people in South Africa, Botswana, Zimbabwe and Mozambique. Seasonal drought early warning is thus vital for the whole region. In this study, the predictability of hydrological droughts during the main runoff period from December to May is assessed using statistical approaches. Three methods (multiple linear models, artificial neural networks, random forest regression trees) are compared in terms of their ability to forecast streamflow with up to 12 months of lead time. The following four main findings result from the study.
1. There are stations in the basin at which standardised streamflow is predictable with lead times up to 12 months. The results show high inter-station differences of forecast skill but reach a coefficient of determination as high as 0.73 (cross validated).
2. A large range of potential predictors is considered in this study, comprising well-established climate indices, customised teleconnection indices derived from sea surface temperatures and antecedent streamflow as a proxy of catchment conditions. El Nino and customised indices, representing sea surface temperature in the Atlantic and Indian oceans, prove to be important teleconnection predictors for the region. Antecedent streamflow is a strong predictor in small catchments (with median 42% explained variance), whereas teleconnections exert a stronger influence in large catchments.
3. Multiple linear models show the best forecast skill in this study and the greatest robustness compared to artificial neural networks and random forest regression trees, despite their capabilities to represent nonlinear relationships.
4. Employed in early warning, the models can be used to forecast a specific drought level. Even if the coefficient of determination is low, the forecast models have a skill better than a climatological forecast, which is shown by analysis of receiver operating characteristics (ROCs). Seasonal statistical forecasts in the Limpopo show promising results, and thus it is recommended to employ them as complementary to existing forecasts in order to strengthen preparedness for droughts.
Reaching the Sustainable Development Goals requires a fundamental socio-economic transformation accompanied by substantial investment in low-carbon infrastructure. Such a sustainability transition represents a non-marginal change, driven by behavioral factors and systemic interactions. However, typical economic models used to assess a sustainability transition focus on marginal changes around a local optimum, whichby constructionlead to negative effects. Thus, these models do not allow evaluating a sustainability transition that might have substantial positive effects. This paper examines which mechanisms need to be included in a standard computable general equilibrium model to overcome these limitations and to give a more comprehensive view of the effects of climate change mitigation. Simulation results show that, given an ambitious greenhouse gas emission constraint and a price of carbon, positive economic effects are possible if (1) technical progress results (partly) endogenously from the model and (2) a policy intervention triggering an increase of investment is introduced. Additionally, if (3) the investment behavior of firms is influenced by their sales expectations, the effects are amplified. The results provide suggestions for policy-makers, because the outcome indicates that investment-oriented climate policies can lead to more desirable outcomes in economic, social and environmental terms.
Anomalous diffusion is being discovered in a fast growing number of systems. The exact nature of this anomalous diffusion provides important information on the physical laws governing the studied system. One of the central properties analysed for finite particle motion time series is the intrinsic variability of the apparent diffusivity, typically quantified by the ergodicity breaking parameter EB. Here we demonstrate that frequently EB is insufficient to provide a meaningful measure for the observed variability of the data. Instead, important additional information is provided by the higher order moments entering by the skewness and kurtosis. We analyse these quantities for three popular anomalous diffusion models. In particular, we find that even for the Gaussian fractional Brownian motion a significant skewness in the results of physical measurements occurs and needs to be taken into account. Interestingly, the kurtosis and skewness may also provide sensitive estimates of the anomalous diffusion exponent underlying the data. We also derive a new result for the EB parameter of fractional Brownian motion valid for the whole range of the anomalous diffusion parameter. Our results are important for the analysis of anomalous diffusion but also provide new insights into the theory of anomalous stochastic processes.
The widespread occurrence of melatonin in prokaryotes as well as eukaryotes indicates that this indoleamine is considerably old. This high evolutionary age has led to the development of diverse functions of melatonin in different organisms, such as the detoxification of reactive oxygen species and anti-stress effects. In insects, i.e. Drosophila, the addition of melatonin has also been shown to increase the life span of this arthropod, probably by reducing age-related increasing oxidative stress.
Although the presence of melatonin was recently found to exist in the ecological and toxicological model organism Daphnia, its function in this cladoceran has thus far not been addressed. Therefore, we challenged Daphnia with three different stressors in order to investigate potential stress-response attenuating effects of melatonin. i) Female and male daphnids were exposed to melatonin in a longevity experiment, ii) Daphnia were confronted with stress signals from the invertebrate predator Chaoborus sp., and iii) Daphnia were grown in high densities, i.e. under crowding-stress conditions.
Results
In our experiments we were able to show that longevity of daphnids was not affected by melatonin. Therefore, age-related increasing oxidative stress was probably not compensated by added melatonin. However, melatonin significantly attenuated Daphnia’ s response to acute predator stress, i.e. the formation of neckteeth which decrease the ability of the gape-limited predator Chaoborus sp. to handle their prey. In addition, melatonin decreased the extent of crowding-related production of resting eggs of Daphnia.
Conclusions
Our results confirm the effect of melatonin on inhibition of stress-signal responses of Daphnia. Until now, only a single study demonstrated melatonin effects on behavioral responses due to vertebrate kairomones, whereas we clearly show a more general effect of melatonin: i) on morphological predator defense induced by an invertebrate kairomone and ii) on life history characteristics transmitted by chemical cues from conspecifics. Therefore, we could generally confirm that melatonin plays a role in the attenuation of responses to different stressors in Daphnia.
Bumps in river profiles
(2017)
The analysis of longitudinal river profiles is an important tool for studying landscape evolution. However, characterizing river profiles based on digital elevation models (DEMs) suffers from errors and artifacts that particularly prevail along valley bottoms. The aim of this study is to characterize uncertainties that arise from the analysis of river profiles derived from different, near-globally available DEMs. We devised new algorithms quantile carving and the CRS algorithm - that rely on quantile regression to enable hydrological correction and the uncertainty quantification of river profiles. We find that globally available DEMs commonly overestimate river elevations in steep topography. The distributions of elevation errors become increasingly wider and right skewed if adjacent hillslope gradients are steep. Our analysis indicates that the AW3D DEM has the highest precision and lowest bias for the analysis of river profiles in mountainous topography. The new 12m resolution TanDEM-X DEM has a very low precision, most likely due to the combined effect of steep valley walls and the presence of water surfaces in valley bottoms. Compared to the conventional approaches of carving and filling, we find that our new approach is able to reduce the elevation bias and errors in longitudinal river profiles.
In the last few years the method of cosmic-ray neutron sensing (CRNS) has gained popularity among hydrologists, physicists, and land-surface modelers. The sensor provides continuous soil moisture data, averaged over several hectares and tens of decimeters in depth. However, the signal still may contain unidentified features of hydrological processes, and many calibration datasets are often required in order to find reliable relations between neutron intensity and water dynamics. Recent insights into environmental neutrons accurately described the spatial sensitivity of the sensor and thus allowed one to quantify the contribution of individual sample locations to the CRNS signal. Consequently, data points of calibration and validation datasets are suggested to be averaged using a more physically based weighting approach. In this work, a revised sensitivity function is used to calculate weighted averages of point data. The function is different from the simple exponential convention by the extraordinary sensitivity to the first few meters around the probe, and by dependencies on air pressure, air humidity, soil moisture, and vegetation. The approach is extensively tested at six distinct monitoring sites: two sites with multiple calibration datasets and four sites with continuous time series datasets. In all cases, the revised averaging method improved the performance of the CRNS products. The revised approach further helped to reveal hidden hydrological processes which otherwise remained unexplained in the data or were lost in the process of overcalibration. The presented weighting approach increases the overall accuracy of CRNS products and will have an impact on all their applications in agriculture, hydrology, and modeling.
Background: The relative dose response (RDR) test, which quantifies the increase in serum retinol after vitamin A administration, is a qualitative measure of liver vitamin A stores. Particularly in preterm infants, the feasibility of the RDR test involving blood is critically dependent on small sample volumes. Objectives: This study aimed to assess whether the RDR calculated with retinol-binding protein 4 (RBP4) might be a substitute for the classical retinol-based RDR test for assessing vitamin A status in very preterm infants. Methods: This study included preterm infants with a birth weight below 1,500 g (n = 63, median birth weight 985 g, median gestational age 27.4 weeks) who were treated with 5,000 IU retinyl palmitate intramuscularly 3 times a week for 4 weeks. On day 3 (first vitamin A injection) and day 28 of life (last vitamin A injection), the RDR was calculated and compared using serum retinol and RBP4 concentrations. Results: The concentrations of retinol (p < 0.001) and RBP4 (p < 0.01) increased significantly from day 3 to day 28. On day 3, the median (IQR) retinol-RDR was 27% (8.4-42.5) and the median RBP4-RDR was 8.4% (-3.4 to 27.9), compared to 7.5% (-10.6 to 20.8) and -0.61% (-19.7 to 15.3) on day 28. The results for retinol-RDR and RBP4-RDR revealed no significant correlation. The agreement between retinol-RDR and RBP4-RDR was poor (day 3: Cohen's κ = 0.12; day 28: Cohen's κ = 0.18). Conclusion: The RDR test based on circulating RBP4 is unlikely to reflect the hepatic vitamin A status in preterm infants.