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This work analyzes the saving and consumption behavior of agents faced with the possibility of unemployment in a dynamic and stochastic life cycle model. The intertemporal optimization is based on Dynamic Programming with a backward recursion algorithm. The implemented uncertainty is not based on income shocks as it is done in traditional life cycle models but uses Markov probabilities where the probability for the next employment status of the agent depends on the current status. The utility function used is a CRRA function (constant relative risk aversion), combined with a CES function (constant elasticity of substitution) and has several consumption goods, a subsistence level, money and a bequest function.
Inhalt: Die Zivilgesellschaft Polens ; Worin liegen die Ursachen? ; Empowerment durch Europäisierung ; Finanzielle Unterstützung durch die EU ; New modes of governance – Neue Formen der Kooperation? ; Europäische Gesetzgebung vs. nationalstaatliche Politik ; Erfolge für sexuelle Minderheiten in Polen ; Zusammenfassung ; Literatur
Alte These – neuer Aufguss
(2011)
Warten auf Godot
(2011)
1945 und die Polen
(2005)
The current series of anniversaries concerning World War II raise the question of how Poland is coming to terms with its past. The article summarises the ongoing Polish debate about the Warsaw Uprising and the changing perspectives on Polish history in society and political circles. The discussion about Poland’s view on its own past has great influence on recent foreign political relations, e.g. with Germany, the Ukraine, or Russia.
This article asks how the internet has been contributing to the trans-national networking of the radical right and whether the radical right has the capacity to act as a trans-national movement. Taking into account language difficulties, the ideological background of ultra- nationalism and internal disputes, the analysis shows that the radical right-wing transnational networking has hardly developed. Additionally, its internet users’ potential is too low to contribute to a stronger trans-national alignment. The obstacles remain despite improved technological possibilities. This is proven by empirical examples of virtual trans-national networks.
Für ein Voranschreiten der deutschen Realität : ein Plädoyer für verantwortungsvollen Pragmatismus
(2004)
Galt vor 1990 das ungeschriebene Gesetz, dass 1948/49 die Bundesrepublik nicht als Staat auf der Suche nach einer eigenen Außenpolitik, sondern als Ergebnis amerikanischer Außenpolitik auf der Suche nach einem Staat gegründet wurde, stellt Deutschland heute immer weniger ein Stück Amerika mitten in Europa dar. Die neue „Berliner Realität“ beinhaltet also die Tatsache, dass Deutschland nicht mehr Objekt der weltgeschichtlichen Situation ist, „sondern auch Subjekt, verantwortlich für weit mehr als das eigene Schicksal“5. Der damit verbundenen Verantwortung kann sich Deutschland nicht entziehen. Es ist deshalb an der Zeit, für einen deutschen Pragmatismus zu plädieren, der weniger von tagespolitischen Erwägungen geprägt sein sollte, sondern mit Werten (wie Verantwortungsbewusstsein und Ehrlichkeit) und Zielen (wie wirtschaftlicher Wohlstand und Sicherheit) unterfüttert werden muss. Daraus ergeben sich außenpolitische Visionen, die das Handeln der Politiker antreiben und legitimieren. Mittelfristig können diese deutschen außenpolitischen Visionen immer mehr mit denen der anderen 24 EU-Mitgliedstaaten verschmelzen, sodass hier tatsächlich eine gewisse Überwindung der Nationalstaaten – aber eben nur innerhalb der EU – zu beobachten wäre. Allerdings würde sich an diese Entwicklung unmittelbar die Frage anschließen, ob die neue europäische Selbstbestimmung nur im Verhältnis zu den USA zu gewinnen, oder ob sie nicht viel weit reichender zu formulieren ist.
Die vergleichende Arbeit beschäftigt sich mit der Bürgerbeteiligung in Städten in Deutschland und Frankreich. In den letzten 20 Jahren haben sich die Formen lokaler Demokratie immer wieder verändert und sich den örtlichen Gegebenheiten angepasst. Das Interesse der Bürger, Verwaltung und politisch gewählten Vertreter an Partizipation wächst stetig . Das heißt aber auch, dass sich diese 3 Akteure den neuen Strukturen anpassen und eigene Strategien entwickeln müssen. Die demokratischen Formen der kooperativen bzw. partizipativen Demokratie werden immer häufiger angewandt. Diese Arbeit evaluiert die verschiedenen Bürgerbeteiligungsinstrumente in Frankreich und Deutschland in dem zwischen Input, Output und Outcome unterschieden wird. Insbesondere die Bürgerhaushalte, Beiräte und Quartiersräte werden genauer betrachtet. Die Ergebnisse zeigen erste Hinweise in welche demokratische Richtung sich die deutschen Städte künftig entwickeln.
The European Employment Strategy (EES) belongs to the European Union’s „softer“, legally non-binding policy instruments. Many politicians and academics associated its introduction with the expectation for a strengthening of the EU’s social dimension and democratic quality. This article examines whether, so far, the EES can be regarded as effective and legitimate. To illustrate this, the author briefly examines the role of the EES for the development of labour market policy in Germany and the UK.
Berlin : look to the world!
(2004)
In the spring 2004 issue of WeltTrends, Professor Gunther Hellmann made a „plea for offensive idealism“ and „against the power political resocialization of German foreign policy“. To a long-time outside observer of that foreign policy, this plea is unsurprising, but depressing. In keeping with Professor Hellmann’s own willingness, „notwendige Differenzierungen [zu] vernachlässigen zugunsten einer bewussten Zuspitzung“ I will comment on the aspects of his argument that strike an American colleague as particularly disturbing.
Nation, migration, narration
(2022)
En France et en Allemagne, l’immigration est devenue dans les dernières décennies une problématique centrale. C’est dans ce contexte qu’est apparu le rap. Celui-ci connaît une popularité énorme chez les populations issues de l’immigration. Pour autant, les rappeurs ne s’en confrontent pas moins à leur identité française ou allemande.
Le but de ce travail est d’expliquer cette apparente contradiction : comment des personnes issues de l’immigration, exprimant un mal-être face à un racisme qu’ils considèrent omniprésent, peuvent-elles se sentir pleinement françaises / allemandes ?
On a divisé le travail entre les chapitres suivants : Contexte de l'étude, méthodologie et théories (I) ; Analyse des différentes formes d’identité nationale au prisme du corpus (II) ; Analyse en trois étapes chronologiques du rapport à la société dans les textes des rappeurs (III-V) ; étude de cas de Kery James en France et Samy Deluxe en Allemagne (VI).
In der vorliegenden Arbeit analysiert Maciej Chinalski den Regional Governance Ansatz und seine praktische Umsetzung in den Europäischen Grenzregionen zwischen Deutschland und Polen (Oder-Partnerschaft) sowie im Vierländereck von Österreich, Ungarn, Tschechien und Slowakei (Centrope-Region). Regional Governance gilt als eine Kooperationsform unterschiedlicher regionaler Akteure, die nach neuen Synergien suchen, um ihre Zusammenarbeit voranzutreiben. Eine Region wird dabei als Raum verstärkter Interaktionen zwischen Staat, Zivilgesellschaft und Wirtschaft verstanden.
Inhalt: Gründe für das Entstehen der Parteienfinanzierung aus dem Staatshaushalt ; Argumente für und gegen die Haushaltsfinanzierung politischer Parteien ; Finanzierung politischer Parteien in Polen nach 1989 ; Die Diskussion über das System der Finanzierung politischer Parteien in Polen ; Zusammenfassung ; Literatur
Der hohe Preis der Macht
(2004)
The thesis focuses on the inter-departmental coordination of adaptation and mitigation of demographic change in East Germany. All Eastern German States (Länder) have set up inter-departmental committees (IDCs) that are expected to deliver joint strategies to tackle demographic change. IDCs provide an organizational setting for potential positive coordination, i.e. a joint approach to problem solving that pools and utilizes the expertise of many departments in a constructive manner from the very beginning. Whether they actually achieve positive coordination is contested within the academic debate. This motivates the first research question of this thesis: Do IDCs achieve positive coordination?
Interdepartmental committees and their role in horizontal coordination within the core executive triggered interest among scholars already more than fifty years ago. However, we don’t know much about their actual importance for the inter-departmental preparation of cross-cutting policies. Until now, few studies can be found that analyzes inter-departmental committees in a comparative way trying to identify whether they achieve positive coordination and what factors shape the coordination process and output of IDCs.
Each IDC has a chair organization that is responsible for managing the interactions within the IDCs. The chair organization is important, because it organizes and structures the overall process of coordination in the IDC. Consequently, the chair of an IDC serves as the main boundary-spanner and therefore has remarkable influence by arranging meetings and the work schedule or by distributing internal roles. Interestingly, in the German context we find two organizational approaches: while some states decided to put a line department (e.g. Department of Infrastructure) in charge of managing the IDC, others rely on the State Chancelleries, i.e. the center of government.
This situation allows for comparative research design that can address the role of the State Chancellery in inter-departmental coordination of cross-cutting policies. This is relevant, because the role of the center is crucial when studying coordination within central government. The academic debate on the center of government in the German politico-administrative system is essentially divided into two camps. One camp claims that the center can improve horizontal coordination and steer cross-cutting policy-making more effectively, while the other camp points to limits to central coordination due to departmental autonomy. This debate motivates the second research question of this thesis: Does the State Chancellery as chair organization achieve positive coordination in IDCs?
The center of government and its role in the German politic-administrative system has attracted academic attention already in the 1960s and 1970s. There is a research desiderate regarding the center’s role during the inter-departmental coordination process. There are only few studies that explicitly analyze centers of government and their role in coordination of cross-cutting policies, although some single case studies have been published. This gap in the academic debate will be addressed by the answer to the second research question.
The dependent variable of this study is the chair organization of IDCs. The value of this variable is dichotomous: either an IDC is chaired by a Line department or by a State Chancellery. We are interested whether this variable has an effect on two dependent variables. First, we will analyze the coordination process, i.e. interaction among bureaucrats within the IDC. Second, the focus of this thesis will be on the coordination result, i.e. the demography strategies that are produced by the respective IDCs.
In terms of the methodological approach, this thesis applies a comparative case study design based on a most-similar-systems logic. The German Federalism is quite suitable for such designs. Since the institutional framework largely is the same across all states, individual variables and their effect can be isolated and plausibly analyzed. To further control for potential intervening variables, we will limit our case selection to states located in East Germany, because the demographic situation is most problematic in the Eastern part of Germany, i.e. there is a equal problem pressure. Consequently, we will analyze five cases: Thuringia, Saxony-Anhalt (line department) and Brandenburg, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Saxony (State Chancellery).
There is no grand coordination theory that is ready to be applied to our case studies. Therefore, we need to tailor our own approach. Our assumption is that the individual chair organization has an effect on the coordination process and output of IDCs, although all cases are embedded in the same institutional setting, i.e. the German politico-administrative system. Therefore, we need an analytical approach than incorporates institutionalist and agency-based arguments. Therefore, this thesis will utilize Actor-Centered Institutionalism (ACI). Broadly speaking, ACI conceptualizes actors’ behavior as influenced - but not fully determined - by institutions. Since ACI is rather abstract we need to adapt it for the purpose of this thesis. Line Departments and State Chancelleries will be modeled as distinct actors with different action orientations and capabilities to steer the coordination process. However, their action is embedded within the institutional context of governments, which we will conceptualize as being comprised of regulative (formal rules) and normative (social norms) elements.
In the need to reform the German labour market, the so-called ‚Hartz IV’- Act cut down subsidies for unemployed people in order to increase the pressure for searching for a new job. By law, low-paid jobs shall be introduced. However, even if this creates employment, there will be a future problem: pensions for these people will dramatically drop below the poverty line. The author argues that, in order to avoid such ‘poverty-traps’, an alternative social support system should be considered: a ‘tax transfer system’ with lowered income tax, yet complete reduction of legal exceptions on the one hand, and transfer systems combined with work incentives on the other hand.
In den vergangenen Jahren hat der im anglo-amerikanischen Rechtsraum wurzelnde Amicus Curiae, wenn auch in unterschiedlicher Ausprägung, Eingang in die Verwaltungsgerichtsbarkeiten in Deutschland und Frankreich gefunden. Dabei erweist sich die französische Verwaltungsgerichtsordnung aus rechtsvergleichender Sicht als progressiv, da das Verfahrensinstrument hier – im Gegensatz zur deutschen Rechtslage – bereits positiv-rechtlich normiert ist. Diese Fortschrittlichkeit hat sich bisher jedoch nicht merklich auf die Drittinterventionspraxis niedergeschlagen, besitzen Amicus Curiae-Stellungnahmen doch in beiden Ländern und über alle verwaltungsgerichtlichen Instanzen hinweg noch immer Seltenheitswert.
Da mithin keine Generalisierungen zur dieser Rechtspraxis erlaubt sind, kann sich eine Analyse der möglichen funktionalen Rolle derartiger Amicus Curiae-Stellungnahmen nur auf theoretische Überlegungen stützen. Danach ist eine Informationsfunktion gegenüber dem Gericht in Bezug auf Tatsachen- und Rechtsfragen klar zu bejahen. Auch dürfte der Verfahrensmechanismus ein zusätzliches – wenngleich nicht demokratisches – Legitimationspotential für gerichtliche Entscheidungen besitzen: Indem dieser gesellschaftliche Teilhabe und damit gleichzeitig die Einbettung verwaltungsgerichtlicher Verfahren in den jeweiligen sozialen Kontext ermöglicht, kann er zur Steigerung der gesellschaftlichen Akzeptanz der zunehmend unter Rechtsfertigungsdruck geratenden Richtermacht beitragen.
The increasing introduction of non-native plant species may pose a threat to local biodiversity. However, the basis of successful plant invasion is not conclusively understood, especially since these plant species can adapt to the new range within a short period of time despite impoverished genetic diversity of the starting populations. In this context, DNA methylation is considered promising to explain successful adaptation mechanisms in the new habitat. DNA methylation is a heritable variation in gene expression without changing the underlying genetic information. Thus, DNA methylation is considered a so-called epigenetic mechanism, but has been studied in mainly clonally reproducing plant species or genetic model plants. An understanding of this epigenetic mechanism in the context of non-native, predominantly sexually reproducing plant species might help to expand knowledge in biodiversity research on the interaction between plants and their habitats and, based on this, may enable more precise measures in conservation biology.
For my studies, I combined chemical DNA demethylation of field-collected seed material from predominantly sexually reproducing species and rearing offsping under common climatic conditions to examine DNA methylation in an ecological-evolutionary context. The contrast of chemically treated (demethylated) plants, whose variation in DNA methylation was artificially reduced, and untreated control plants of the same species allowed me to study the impact of this mechanism on adaptive trait differentiation and local adaptation. With this experimental background, I conducted three studies examining the effect of DNA methylation in non-native species along a climatic gradient and also between climatically divergent regions.
The first study focused on adaptive trait differentiation in two invasive perennial goldenrod species, Solidago canadensis sensu latu and S. gigantea AITON, along a climate gradient of more than 1000 km in length in Central Europe. I found population differences in flowering timing, plant height, and biomass in the temporally longer-established S. canadensis, but only in the number of regrowing shoots for S. gigantea. While S. canadensis did not show any population structure, I was able to identify three genetic groups along this climatic gradient in S. gigantea. Surprisingly, demethylated plants of both species showed no change in the majority of traits studied. In the subsequent second study, I focused on the longer-established goldenrod species S. canadensis and used molecular analyses to infer spatial epigenetic and genetic population differences in the same specimens from the previous study. I found weak genetic but no epigenetic spatial variation between populations. Additionally, I was able to identify one genetic marker and one epigenetic marker putatively susceptible to selection. However, the results of this study reconfirmed that the epigenetic mechanism of DNA methylation appears to be hardly involved in adaptive processes within the new range in S. canadensis.
Finally, I conducted a third study in which I reciprocally transplanted short-lived plant species between two climatically divergent regions in Germany to investigate local adaptation at the plant family level. For this purpose, I used four plant families (Amaranthaceae, Asteraceae, Plantaginaceae, Solanaceae) and here I additionally compared between non-native and native plant species. Seeds were transplanted to regions with a distance of more than 600 kilometers and had either a temperate-oceanic or a temperate-continental climate. In this study, some species were found to be maladapted to their own local conditions, both in non-native and native plant species alike. In demethylated individuals of the plant species studied, DNA methylation had inconsistent but species-specific effects on survival and biomass production. The results of this study highlight that DNA methylation did not make a substantial contribution to local adaptation in the non-native as well as native species studied.
In summary, my work showed that DNA methylation plays a negligible role in both adaptive trait variation along climatic gradients and local adaptation in non-native plant species that either exhibit a high degree of genetic variation or rely mainly on sexual reproduction with low clonal propagation. I was able to show that the adaptive success of these non-native plant species can hardly be explained by DNA methylation, but could be a possible consequence of multiple introductions, dispersal corridors and meta-population dynamics. Similarly, my results illustrate that the use of plant species that do not predominantly reproduce clonally and are not model plants is essential to characterize the effect size of epigenetic mechanisms in an ecological-evolutionary context.
Hellmanns Warnung vor einer Resozialisierung der deutschen Außenpolitik in eine traditionelle Großmachtrolle erweckt bei mir viel Sympathie. Seine Alternative finde ich moralisch ehrenhaft, aber realistisch nur innerhalb des Prozesses der europäischen Integration. Ich glaube allerdings nicht, dass das Erbe der Geschichte Deutschlands ein besonderes außenpolitisches Vorgehen erzwingt. Ebenso wenig glaube ich, dass idealistische Positionen, gleich welcher Couleur, bei der Bewahrung von Frieden realistischen überlegen sind. Der Berliner Republik haftet ein gewisser Wilhelminismus in der Außenpolitik an. Man will durch Nachholen gleich werden wie die anderen. Die Warnung vor Rissen im Bündnis und vor der Möglichkeit einer Spirale des Niedergangs der europäischen Integration im Beitrag von Hellmann teile ich. Ich würde noch weiter gehen: Auch die humanitäre Intervention bleibt Intervention. Prinzipien der Menschenrechte sind wichtig, ihre Ausgestaltung, manchmal sogar Teile ihrer Prinzipien aber strittig. Welche Kriterien gibt uns der offensive Realismus bei der Stärkung der Interventionsmöglichkeiten draußen, wenn wir dabei keine machtpolitischen Interessen vertreten sollen? Wenn wir nicht alle Übel der Welt abschaffen wollen, dann muss eine Hierarchie verfolgt werden. Die rot-grüne Koalition hat mit der Ausnahme der Irak-Entscheidung im Wesentlichen das Ziel verfolgt, den eigenen Einfluss innerhalb der westlichen Staatengemeinschaft zu steigern. Hellmanns Empfehlung lautet wohl, dort mitzumachen, wo supranationale Institutionen geschaffen werden sollen. Welches sind die Kriterien zur Messung dieser Ziele?
This article expands our current knowledge about ministerial selection in coalition governments and analyses why ministerial candidates succeed in acquiring a cabinet position after general elections. It argues that political parties bargain over potential office-holders during government-formation processes, selecting future cabinet ministers from an emerging bargaining pool'. The article draws upon a new dataset comprising all ministrable candidates discussed by political parties during eight government-formation processes in Germany between 1983 and 2009. The conditional logit regression analysis reveals that temporal dynamics, such as the day she enters the pool, have a significant effect on her success in achieving a cabinet position. Other determinants of ministerial selection discussed in the existing literature, such as party and parliamentary expertise, are less relevant for achieving ministerial office. The article concludes that scholarship on ministerial selection requires a stronger emphasis for its endogenous nature in government-formation as well as the relevance of temporal dynamics in such processes.
The German Ostpolitik of the Red-Green government between 1998 and 2005 focused particularly on the autocratic Russia. It mostly ignored the other – democratic – states in Central and Eastern Europe. Since this policy failed to improve the stability in the region, a policy change is necessary. Regional stability can only be based on the equal cooperation of democratic states. Germany should therefore intensify her support for the democratic forces in the region and integrate her policy into a common Ostpolitik within the EU.
Europäische Zeitenwenden
(2009)
Die Frage, ob die CDU-Bundestagsabgeordnete Erika Steinbach, seit 1998 Präsidenten des Bundes der Vertriebenen (BdV), einen Sitz im Stiftungsrat des "Zentrums gegen Vertreibung" einnehmen soll, spaltet die politische Landschaft. Die von der SPD beantragte Aktuelle Stunde des Bundestages am 26. November 2009 machte dies erneut deutlich. Auch die neue Bundesregierung ist in dieser Frage gespalten.
Europa ohne Kompass
(2012)
Die noch nicht ausgestandene Staatsschuldenkrise seit Ende 2009 hat Europa stärker verändert, als viele wahrhaben wollen. Es stellt sich die grundsätzliche Frage des Sinns der europäischen Integration. Vor allem die Glaubwürdigkeit des europäischen politischen Führungspersonals hat gelitten. Ohne Kompass wurstelt man sich seit mehr als zwei Jahren durch. Keine "rote Linie", die nicht nach wenigen Wochen überschritten wurde, kein Masterplan, der nicht bald Makulatur geworden ist.
In the spring issue of WeltTrends, Gunther Hellmann (Johann-Wolfgang-Goethe- Universität Frankfurt a. M.) sparked a debate on Germany's foreign policy. He argued that Germany’s international behaviour is dominated by a Realpolitik policy generally referred to as "normalization". For Hellmann this transformation indicates "the deepest crisis of German foreign policy" ever. Hellmann proposes a rehabilitation of the tradition of the Bonner Republik and an active Idealpolitik. This summer issue of WeltTrends features eleven articles written in response to Hellmann by International Relations scholars. The debate focuses on analytical as well as normative aspects of current German foreign policy. The authors discuss the context of the European Common Foreign and Security Policy, the international system and the United Nations, historical aspects of German foreign policy and the German foreign policy discourse. While some contributors share Hellmann's idealist position, most challenge his plea from a more realist perspective. In the upcoming fall issue, this debate will be continued with contributions by German foreign policy makers. A final reply by Hellmann will complete the debate in the winter issue of WeltTrends. Contributions by: Franz Ansprenger, Stephan Böckenförde, Wilfried von Bredow, Sabine Busse, Edwina S. Campbell, Hartmut Elsenhans, Hans J. Gießmann, Werner Link, Carlo Masala, Hanns W. Maull, and Siegfried Schwarz.
The central focus of this essay is the "politicisation" of ethnicity in contemporary German immigration policy and its underlying ethnic ideology. Emphasis is put on the relevance of ethnicity and how it is viewed within the framework of German immigration policy. The author discusses German citizenship policy and its ideology, which creates ethnic boundaries in order to serve as a mechanism to defend limited access to German citizenship. The effects of the elevation of so-called ethnic groups through privileged immigration are explained with the example of ethnic German emigrants living in the former Soviet Union – the "Auslandsdeutschen" – and the process of their ethnic formation.
Konservatismus in der europäischen Ideengeschichte : Wirkungen in Theorie und politischer Praxis
(2005)
Literaturbericht Rezensierte Bücher: Bösch, Frank: Die Adenauer-CDU. Gründung, Aufstieg und Krise einer Erfolgspartei 1945– 1969, Deutsche Verlags-Anstalt, Stuttgart 2001, 575 Seiten, ISBN 3-421-05438-X. Bösch, Frank: Das konservative Milieu. Vereinskultur und lokale Sammlungspolitik (1900–1960) (= Veröffentlichungen des Zeitgeschichtlichen Arbeitskreises Niedersachsen 19), Wallstein Verlag, Göttingen 2002, 266 Seiten, ISBN 3-89244-501-X. Bösch, Frank: Macht und Machtverlust. Die Geschichte der CDU, Deutsche Verlags- Anstalt, München 2002, 312 Seiten, ISBN 3-421-05601-3. Gauland, Alexander: Anleitung zum Konservativsein, Deutsche Verlags-Anstalt, München 2002, 131 Seiten, ISBN 3-421-05649-8. Geppert, Dominik: Thatchers konservative Revolution. Der Richtungswandel der britischen Tories 1975–1979 (= Veröffentlichungen des Deutschen Historischen Instituts London 53), Oldenbourg Wissenschaftsverlag, München 2002, 463 Seiten, ISBN 3-486-56661-X. Mannheim, Karl / Stehr, Nico / Kettler, David / Meja, Volker (Hrsg.): Konservatismus. Ein Beitrag zur Soziologie des Wissens. Suhrkamp Taschenbuch Verlag, Frankfurt am Main 2003, 288 Seiten, ISBN 3-518-28078-3. Rill, Robert / Zellenberg, Ulrich (Hrsg.): Konservativismus in Österreich. Strömungen, Ideen, Personen und Vereinigungen, Stocker-Verlag, Graz 1999, 368 Seiten, ISBN 3-7020-0860-8. Schrenck-Notzing, Caspar v.: Lexikon des Konservatismus, Stocker-Verlag, Graz 1996, 608 Seiten, ISBN 3-7020-0760-1.
German foreign policy is in the midst of a far-reaching transformation. Contrary to disciplinary expectations, this process is neither properly captured by descriptions in the liberal tradition („Europeanisation“, „Civilian Power“) nor by Realist expectations that Germany is doomed to „remilitarise“ and/or „renationalise“. However, the key term of foreign policy discourse, „normalisation“, is an unmistakable code, signalling a rediscovery of traditional Realpolitik practices which fit Germany’s current environment. The paper argues that rather than merely playing the role of an obedient disciple of Realpolitik socialisers, Germany ought to rehabilitate the foreign policy tradition of the Bonn Republic in support of an active Idealpolitik transformation of its environment. The article serves as a starting point for a debate on German foreign policy in the upcoming issues of WeltTrends.
In the Spring 2004 issue of WeltTrends, Gunther Hellmann sparked a debate on Germany’s foreign policy. The debate was resumed through the Summer, Fall, Winter and Spring editions (no. 43 to 46) of WeltTrends, which featured articles of German International Relations scholars as well as foreign policy-makers and experts from abroad. In his concluding article, Hellmann seizes the opportunity to outline and comment on some characteristics of the debate as revealed in the contributions of his critics.
Außenpolitik aus dem Bauch
(2004)
Modelling of environmental change impacts on water resources and hydrological extremes in Germany
(2012)
Water resources, in terms of quantity and quality, are significantly influenced by environmental changes, especially by climate and land use changes. The main objective of the present study is to project climate change impacts on the seasonal dynamics of water fluxes, spatial changes in water balance components as well as the future flood and low flow conditions in Germany. This study is based on the modeling results of the process-based eco-hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model) driven by various regional climate scenarios on one hand. On the other hand, it is supported by statistical analysis on long-term trends of observed and simulated time series. In addition, this study evaluates the impacts of potential land use changes on water quality in terms of NO3-N load in selected sub-regions of the Elbe basin. In the context of climate change, the actual evapotransipration is likely to increase in most parts of Germany, while total runoff generation may decrease in south and east regions in the scenario period 2051-2060. Water discharge in all six studied large rivers (Ems, Weser, Saale, Danube, Main and Neckar) would be 8 – 30% lower in summer and autumn compared to the reference period (1961 – 1990), and the strongest decline is expected for the Saale, Danube and Neckar. The 50-year low flow is likely to occur more frequently in western, southern and central Germany after 2061 as suggested by more than 80% of the model runs. The current low flow period (from August to September) may be extended until the late autumn at the end of this century. Higher winter flow is expected in all of these rivers, and the increase is most significant for the Ems (about 18%). No general pattern of changes in flood directions can be concluded according to the results driven by different RCMs, emission scenarios and multi-realizations. An optimal agricultural land use and management are essential for the reduction in nutrient loads and improvement of water quality. In the Weiße Elster and Unstrut sub-basins (Elbe), an increase of 10% in the winter rape area can result in 12-19% more NO3-N load in rivers. In contrast, another energy plant, maize, has a moderate effect on the water environment. Mineral fertilizers have a much stronger effect on the NO3-N load than organic fertilizers. Cover crops, which play an important role in the reduction of nitrate losses from fields, should be maintained on cropland. The uncertainty in estimating future high flows and, in particular, extreme floods remain high due to different RCM structures, emission scenarios and multi-realizations. In contrast, the projection of low flows under warmer climate conditions appears to be more pronounced and consistent. The largest source of uncertainty related to NO3-N modelling originates from the input data on the agricultural management.
Temperature-related excess mortality in German cities at 2 °C and higher degrees of global warming
(2020)
Background: Investigating future changes in temperature-related mortality as a function of global mean temperature (GMT) rise allows for the evaluation of policy-relevant climate change targets. So far, only few studies have taken this approach, and, in particular, no such assessments exist for Germany, the most populated country of Europe.
Methods: We assess temperature-related mortality in 12 major German cities based on daily time-series of all-cause mortality and daily mean temperatures in the period 1993-2015, using distributed-lag non-linear models in a two-stage design. Resulting risk functions are applied to estimate excess mortality in terms of GMT rise relative to pre-industrial levels, assuming no change in demographics or population vulnerability.
Results: In the observational period, cold contributes stronger to temperature-related mortality than heat, with overall attributable fractions of 5.49% (95%CI: 3.82-7.19) and 0.81% (95%CI: 0.72-0.89), respectively. Future projections indicate that this pattern could be reversed under progressing global warming, with heat-related mortality starting to exceed cold-related mortality at 3 degrees C or higher GMT rise. Across cities, projected net increases in total temperature-related mortality were 0.45% (95%CI: -0.02-1.06) at 3 degrees C, 1.53% (95%CI: 0.96-2.06) at 4 degrees C, and 2.88% (95%CI: 1.60-4.10) at 5 degrees C, compared to today's warming level of 1 degrees C. By contrast, no significant difference was found between projected total temperature-related mortality at 2 degrees C versus 1 degrees C of GMT rise.
Conclusions: Our results can inform current adaptation policies aimed at buffering the health risks from increased heat exposure under climate change. They also allow for the evaluation of global mitigation efforts in terms of local health benefits in some of Germany's most populated cities.
Der vorliegende Beitrag knüpft an die in Potsdam seit 2001 durchgeführte Langzeitstudie an und untersucht die aktuelle Situation auf dem formellen Beteiligungsmarkt in Deutschland nach dem Ausbruch der Finanzkrise. Neben den allgemeinen Gegebenheiten des Marktes werden vor allem die Finanzierungsbedingungen sowie das Investitionsverhalten einzelner Beteiligungsgesellschaften analysiert. In den Jahren 2008 - 2009 zeigt sich einerseits eine weitestgehend unveränderte Struktur der Refinanzierungsquellen. Privatpersonen und Banken sowie der öffentliche Sektor nehmen weiterhin einen hohen Stellenwert ein. Andererseits werden deutliche Veränderungen der strukturellen Merkmale, wie auch im Investitionsverhalten einzelner Beteiligungsgesellschaften deutlich. Besonders auffällig für die Branche sind das Rationalisierungsbestreben beim Einsatz von Investmentmanagern sowie die zunehmende Spätphasenspezialisierung. Aus dem festgestellten Konsolidierungs- und Reifeprozess erwächst die Herausforderung und offene Frage, wie der Markt eine solche strukturelle Angebotslücke im Frühphasensegment begegnen will. Auch das Einwerben neuer Finanzmittel sowie die aktuellen Exit-Bedingungen werden in der vorliegenden Studie kritisch beleuchtet. Als ein reizvolles Instrument zur Reduzierung der aufgezeigten Problemfelder wird dabei die aktuell unterentwickelte Syndizierung von Beteiligungsinvestitionen angesehen. Die effizientere Ausgestaltung derartiger Finanzierungsstrukturen sollte dazu beitragen, dass das private Beteiligungskapital künftig stärker bei der Transformation betrieblicher Forschung und Entwicklung zum Einsatz gelangt.
Die vorliegende Studie analysiert die Ergebnisse einer bundesweiten Unternehmensbefragung zum Finanzierungsverhalten deutscher KMU. Im Fokus stehen die Verfügbarkeit konkreter Finanzierungsinstrumente für KMU und deren Akzeptanz im Mittelstand. Dies soll die derzeitigen Möglichkeiten und Grenzen des heimischen Banken- und Finanzsystems verdeutlichen. Darüber hinaus werden verschiedene Aspekte des Innovationsverhaltens der befragten Unternehmen beleuchtet. Es zeigt sich, dass die Finanzierung aus erwirtschafteten Gewinnen einen überragenden Stellenwert besitzt. Zudem werden neben dem traditionell verankerten Bankdarlehen, vor allem kurzfristige, flexible, aber teure Kontokorrent- und Lieferantenkredite für Investitionszwecke genutzt. Alternative Finanzierungsinstrumente, wie Mezzanine, Beteiligungskapital sowie auch Kapitalmarktfinanzierungen haben bisher nur eine marginale Bedeutung erlangt. Als mögliche Ursachen hierfür sind mangelnde Kenntnisse und persönliche Vorbehalte auf Unternehmensseite, aber auch die grundsätzliche Nichteignung dieser Alternativen festzustellen. So liegt das nachgefragte Finanzierungsvolumen bei KMU häufig unter den Mindestgrenzen derartiger Kapitalgeber. Staatliche Förderinstrumente, welche vor allem von größeren mittelständischen Unternehmen in Anspruch genommen werden, können dabei nur einen Teilbeitrag leisten, um die Finanzierungsrestriktionen zu reduzieren. Im Bereich der Innovationsfinanzierung zeigt sich daher vor allem bei mittelgroßen Projekten ein besonderer Finanzierungsengpass.
Switches between political and administrative positions seem to be quite common in today’s politics, or at least not so unusual any longer. Nevertheless, up-to-date empirical studies on this issue are lacking. This paper investigates the presumption, that in recent years top bureaucrats have become more politicised, while at the same time more politicians stem from a bureaucratic background, by looking at the career paths of both. For this purpose, we present new empirical evidence on career patterns of top bureaucrats and executive politicians both at Federal and at Länder level. The data was collected from authorized biographies published at the websites of the Federal and Länder ministries for all Ministers, Parliamentary State Secretaries and Administrative State Secretaries who held office in June 2009.
„It’s the Strategy, Stupid!“
(2011)
The article explores how recent changes in the governance of employment services in three European countries (Denmark, Germany and Norway) have influenced accountability relationships. The overall assumption in the growing literature about accountability is that the number of actors involved in accountability arrangements is rising, that accountability relationships are becoming more numerous and complex, and that these changes may lead to contradictory accountability relationships, and finally to ‘multi accountability disorder’. The article tries to explore these assumptions by analysing the different actors involved and the information requested in the new governance arrangements in all three countries. It concludes that the considerable changes in organizational arrangements and more managerial information demanded and provided have led to more shared forms of accountability. Nevertheless, a clear development towards less political or administrative accountability could not be observed.
This two-wave longitudinal study identified configurations of social rejection, affiliation with aggressive peers, and academic failure and examined their predictivity for reactive and proactive aggression in a sample of 1,479 children and adolescents aged between 9 and 19 years. Latent profile analysis yielded three configurations of risk factors, made up of a non-risk group, a risk group scoring high on measures of social rejection (SR), and a risk group scoring high on measures of affiliation with aggressive peers and academic failure (APAF). Latent path analysis revealed that, as predicted, only membership in the SR group at T1 predicted reactive aggression at T2 17 months later. By contrast, only membership in the APAF group at T1 predicted proactive aggression at T2.
Inhalt: Introduction: The problem at hand Approaches to EU’s external identity making Mechanisms of external identity making Theoretical approaches to the EU’s external identity making The EU’s external identity promotion The ENP policy instruments Conclusions References
Agenda gegen Waffenhandel
(2012)
Deutschlands linke Mehrheit ist gespalten. In besonderem Maße betrifft dies außenpolitische Themen. Gegen den menschenfeindlichen Irrsinn von Rüstungsexporten anzugehen könnte hingegen ein einigendes Projekt werden. Die Kanzlerin hat mit ihrer zynischen Behauptung, Rüstungsexporte könnten Bestandteil von Konfliktbearbeitung sein, eine Steilvorlage geboten.