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Ecologists carry a well-stocked toolbox with a great variety of sampling methods, statistical analyses and modelling tools, and new methods are constantly appearing. Evaluation and optimisation of these methods is crucial to guide methodological choices. Simulating error-free data or taking high-quality data to qualify methods is common practice. Here, we emphasise the methodology of the 'virtual ecologist' (VE) approach where simulated data and observer models are used to mimic real species and how they are 'virtually' observed. This virtual data is then subjected to statistical analyses and modelling, and the results are evaluated against the 'true' simulated data. The VE approach is an intuitive and powerful evaluation framework that allows a quality assessment of sampling protocols, analyses and modelling tools. It works under controlled conditions as well as under consideration of confounding factors such as animal movement and biased observer behaviour. In this review, we promote the approach as a rigorous research tool, and demonstrate its capabilities and practical relevance. We explore past uses of VE in different ecological research fields, where it mainly has been used to test and improve sampling regimes as well as for testing and comparing models, for example species distribution models. We discuss its benefits as well as potential limitations, and provide some practical considerations for designing VE studies. Finally, research fields are identified for which the approach could be useful in the future. We conclude that VE could foster the integration of theoretical and empirical work and stimulate work that goes far beyond sampling methods, leading to new questions, theories, and better mechanistic understanding of ecological systems.
The Lombok Island is part of the Lesser Sunda Islands (LSI) region – Indonesia, situated along the Sunda-Banda Arcs transition. It lies between zones characterized by the highest intensity geomagnetic anomalies of this region, remarkable as one of the eight most important features provided on the 1st edition of World Digital Magnetic Anomaly Map. The seismicity of this region during the last years is high, while the geological and tectonic structures of this region are still not known in detail. Some local magnetic surveys have been conducted previously during 2004–2005. However, due to the lower accuracy of the used equipment and a limited number of stations, the qualities of the previous measurements are questionable for more interpretations. Thus a more detailed study to better characterize the geomagnetic anomaly -spatially and temporally- over this region and to deeply explore the related regional geology, tectonic and seismicity is needed. The intriguing geomagnetic anomalies over this island region vis-à-vis the socio-cultural situations lead to a study with a special aim to contribute to the assessment of the potential of natural hazards (earthquakes) as well as a new natural resource of energy (geothermal potential).
This study is intended to discuss several crucial questions, including:
i. The real values and the general pattern of magnetic anomalies over the island, as well as their relation to the regional one.
ii. Any temporal changes of regional anomalies over the recent time.
iii. The relationships between the anomalies and the geology and tectonic of this region, especially new insights that can be gained from the geomagnetic observations.
iv. The relationships between the anomalies and the high seismicity of this region, especially some possible links between their variations to the earthquake occurrence.
First, all available geomagnetic data of this region and results of the previous measurements are evaluated. The new geomagnetic surveys carried out in 2006 and 2007/2008 are then presented in detail, followed by the general description of data processing and data quality evaluation. The new results show the general pattern of contiguous negative-positive anomalies, revealing an active arc related subduction region. They agree with earlier results obtained by satellite, aeromagnetic, and marine platforms; and provide a much more detailed picture of the strong anomalies on this island. The temporal characteristics of regional anomalies show a decreasing strength of the dipolar structure, where decreasing of the field intensities is faster than the regional secular variations as defined by the global model (the 10th generation of IGRF). However, some exceptions (increasing of anomalies) have to be noted and further analyzed for several locations.
Thereafter, simultaneous magnetic anomalies and gravity models are generated and interpreted in detail. Three profiles are investigated, providing new insights into the tectonics and geological evolution of the Lombok Island. Geological structure of this island can be divided as two main parts with different consecutive ages: an old part (from late Oligocene to late Miocene) in the South and a younger one (from Pliocene to Holocene) in the North. A new subduction in the back arc region (the Flores Thrust zone) is considered mature and active, showing a tendency of progressive subduction during 2005–2008. Geothermal potential in the northern part of this island can be mapped in more detail using these geomagnetic regional survey data. The earlier estimates of reservoir depth can be confirmed further to a depth of about 800 m. Evaluation of temporal changes of the anomalies gives some possible explanations related to the evolution of the back arc region, large stress accumulations over the LSI region, a specific electrical characteristic of the crust of the Lombok Island region, and a structural discontinuity over this island.
Based on the results, several possible advanced studies involving geomagnetic data and anomaly investigations over the Lombok Island region can be suggested for the future:
i. Monitoring the subduction activity of the back arc region (the Flores Thrust zone) and the accumulated stress over the LSI, that could contribute to middle term hazard assessment with a special attention to the earthquake occurrence in this region. Continuous geomagnetic field measurements from a geomagnetic observatory which can be established in the northern part of the Lombok Island and systematic measurements at several repeat stations can be useful in this regards.
ii. Investigating the specific electrical characteristic (high conductivity) of the crust, that is probably related to some aquifer layers or metal mineralization. It needs other complementary geophysical methods, such as magnetotelluric (MT) or preferably DC resistivity measurements.
iii. Determining the existence of an active structural fault over the Lombok Island, that could be related to long term hazard assessment over the LSI region. This needs an extension of geomagnetic investigations over the neighbouring islands (the Bali Island in the West and the Sumbawa Island in the East; probably also the Sumba and the Flores islands). This seems possible because the regional magnetic lineations might be used to delineate some structural discontinuities, based on the modelling of contrasts in crustal magnetizations.
What is the most appropriate sampling scheme to estimate event-based average throughfall? A satisfactory answer to this seemingly simple question has yet to be found, a failure which we attribute to previous efforts' dependence on empirical studies. Here we try to answer this question by simulating stochastic throughfall fields based on parameters for statistical models of large monitoring data sets. We subsequently sampled these fields with different sampling designs and variable sample supports. We evaluated the performance of a particular sampling scheme with respect to the uncertainty of possible estimated means of throughfall volumes. Even for a relative error limit of 20%, an impractically large number of small, funnel-type collectors would be required to estimate mean throughfall, particularly for small events. While stratification of the target area is not superior to simple random sampling, cluster random sampling involves the risk of being less efficient. A larger sample support, e.g., the use of trough-type collectors, considerably reduces the necessary sample sizes and eliminates the sensitivity of the mean to outliers. Since the gain in time associated with the manual handling of troughs versus funnels depends on the local precipitation regime, the employment of automatically recording clusters of long troughs emerges as the most promising sampling scheme. Even so, a relative error of less than 5% appears out of reach for throughfall under heterogeneous canopies. We therefore suspect a considerable uncertainty of input parameters for interception models derived from measured throughfall, in particular, for those requiring data of small throughfall events.
In the humid tropics, continuing high deforestation rates are seen alongside an increasing expansion of secondary forests. In order to understand and model the consequences of these dynamic land-use changes for regional water cycles, the response of soil hydraulic properties to forest disturbance and recovery has to be quantified.At a site in the Brazilian Amazonia, we annually monitored soil infiltrability and saturated hydraulic conductivity (K-s) at 12.5, 20 cm, and 50 cm soil depth after manual forest conversion to pasture (year zero to four after pasture establishment), and during secondary succession after pasture abandonment (year zero to seven after pasture abandonment). We evaluated the hydrological consequences of the detected changes by comparing the soil hydraulic properties with site-specific rainfall intensities and hydrometric observations. Within one year after grazing started, infiltrability and K-s at 12.5 and 20 cm depth decreased by up to one order of magnitude to levels which are typical for 20-year-old pasture. In the three subsequent monitoring years, infiltrability and K-s remained stable. Land use did not impact on subsoil permeability. Whereas infiltrability values are large enough to allow all rainwater to infiltrate even after the conversion, the sudden decline of near-surface K-s is of hydrological relevance as perched water tables and overland flow occur more often on pastures than in forests at our study site. After pasture abandonment and during secondary succession, seven years of recovery did not suffice to significantly increase infiltrability and K-s at 12.5 depth although a slight recovery is obvious. At 20 cm soil depth, we detected a positive linear increase within the seven-year time frame but annual means did not differ significantly. Although more than a doubling of infiltrability and K-s is still required to achieve pre-disturbance levels, which will presumably take more than a decade, the observed slight increases of K-s might already decrease the probability of perched water table generation and overland flow development well before complete recovery.
This study presents an application of an innovative sampling strategy to assess soil moisture dynamics in a headwater of the Weisseritz in the German eastern Ore Mountains. A grassland site and a forested site were instrumented with two Spatial TDR clusters (STDR) that consist of 39 and 32 coated TDR probes of 60 cm length. Distributed time series of vertically averaged soil moisture data from both sites/ensembles were analyzed by statistical and geostatistical methods. Spatial variability and the spatial mean at the forested site were larger than at the grassland site. Furthermore, clustering of TDR probes in combination with long-term monitoring allowed identification of average spatial covariance structures at the small field scale for different wetness states. The correlation length of soil water content as well as the sill to nugget ratio at the grassland site increased with increasing average wetness and but, in contrast, were constant at the forested site. As soil properties at both the forested and grassland sites are extremely variable, this suggests that the correlation structure at the forested site is dominated by the pattern of throughfall and interception. We also found a very strong correlation between antecedent soil moisture at the forested site and runoff coefficients of rainfall-runoff events observed at gauge Rehefeld. Antecedent soil moisture at the forest site explains 92% of the variability in the runoff coefficients. By combining these results with a recession analysis we derived a first conceptual model of the dominant runoff mechanisms operating in this catchment. Finally, we employed a physically based hydrological model to shed light on the controls of soil- and plant morphological parameters on soil average soil moisture at the forested site and the grassland site, respectively. A homogeneous soil setup allowed, after fine tuning of plant morphological parameters, most of the time unbiased predictions of the observed average soil conditions observed at both field sites. We conclude that the proposed sampling strategy of clustering TDR probes is suitable to assess unbiased average soil moisture dynamics in critical functional units, in this case the forested site, which is a much better predictor for event scale runoff formation than pre-event discharge. Long term monitoring of such critical landscape elements could maybe yield valuable information for flood warning in headwaters. We thus think that STDR provides a good intersect of the advantages of permanent sampling and spatially highly resolved soil moisture sampling using mobile rods.
Seasonal precipitation gradients and their impact on fluvial sediment flux in the Northwest Himalaya
(2010)
Precipitation in the form of rain and snowfall throughout the Himalaya controls river discharge and erosional processes and, thus, has a first-order control on the fluvial sediment flux. Here, we analyze daily precipitation data (1998-2007) of 80 weather stations from the northwestern Himalaya in order to decipher temporal and spatial moisture gradients. In addition, suspended sediment data allow assessment of the impact of precipitation on the fluvial sediment flux for a 10(3)-km(2) catchment (Baspa). We find that weather stations located at the mountain front receive similar to 80% of annual precipitation during summer (May-Oct), whereas stations in the orogenic interior, i.e., leeward of the orographic barrier, receive similar to 60% of annual precipitation during winter (Nov-Apr). In both regions 4-6 rainstorm days account for similar to 40% of the summer budgets, while rainstorm magnitude-frequency relations, derived from 40-year precipitation time-series, indicate a higher storm variability in the interior than in the frontal region. This high variability in maximum annual rainstorm days in the orogenic interior is reflected by a high variability in extreme suspended sediment events in the Baspa Valley, which strongly affect annual erosion yields. The two most prominent 5-day-long erosional events account for 50% of the total 5-year suspended sediment flux and coincide with synoptic-scale monsoonal rainstorms. This emphasizes the erosional impact of the Indian Summer Monsoon as the main driving force for erosion processes in the orogenic interior, despite more precipitation falling during the winter season.
A confocal set-up is presented that improves micro-XRF and XAFS experiment with high-pressure e diamond-anvil cells (DACs) In this experiment a probing volume is defined by the focus of the incoming synchrotron radiation beam and that of a polycapillary X-ray half-lens with a very long working distance, which is placed in front of the fluorescence detector This set-up enhances the quality of the fluorescence and XAFS spectra, and thus the sensitivity for detecting elements at low concentrations. It efficiently suppresses signal from outside the sample chamber, which stems from elastic and inelastic scattering of the incoming beam by the diamond anvils as well as from excitation of fluorescence from the body of the DAC
Amphibole and mica Ar-40/Ar-39 ages as well as zircon, rutile and titanite U-Pb geochronology of eclogites and associated host rocks from the Higher Himalayan Crystalline Nappes (Indian Plate) in the Upper Kaghan Valley, Pakistan allow distinction of a multistage exhumation history. An Eocene age for peak-pressure metamorphism has been obtained by phengite Ar-40/Ar-39 (47.3 +/- 0.3 Ma) and zircon U-Pb (47.3 +/- 0.4 and 47.4 +/- 0.3 Ma) ages from cover and basement gneisses. A very short-lived metamorphic peak and rapid cooling is documented by an amphibole Ar-40/Ar-39 age of 46.6 +/- 0.5 Ma and a rutile U-Pb age of 44.1 +/- 1.3 Ma from eclogites. Phengite and biotite ages from cover and basement sequences metamorphosed during the Himalayan orogeny are 34.5 +/- 0.2 to 28.1 +/- 0.2 Ma whereas youngest biotites, yielding 23.6 +/- 0.1 and 21.7 +/- 0.2 Ma, probably reflect argon partial resetting. The amphibole age, together with those derived from phengite and zircon demonstrate a rate of initial exhumation of 86-143 mm/a i.e. an extremely rapid transport of the Indian Plate continental crust from ultra-high pressure (UHP) conditions back to crustal levels (47-46 Ma for transport from 140 to 40 km depth). Subsequent exhumation (46-41 Ma, 40-35 km) slowed to about 1 mm/a at the base of the continental crust but increased again later towards slightly higher exhumation rates of ca. 2 mm/a (41-34 Ma, 35- 20 km). This indicates a change from buoyancy-driven exhumation at mantle depths to compression forces related to continent-continent collision and accompanied crustal folding, thrusting and stacking that finally exposed the former deeply-buried rocks.
Metabasites were sampled from rock series of the subducted margin of the Indian Plate, the so-called Higher Himalayan Crystalline, in the Upper Kaghan Valley, Pakistan. These vary from corona dolerites, cropping out around Saif- ul-Muluk in the south, to coesite-eclogite close to the suture zone against rocks of the Kohistan arc in the north. Bulk rock major- and trace-element chemistry reveals essentially a single protolith as the source for five different eclogite types, which differ in fabric, modal mineralogy as well as in mineral chemistry. The study of newly-collected samples reveals coesite (confirmed by in situ Raman spectroscopy) in both garnet and omphacite. All eclogites show growth of amphiboles during exhumation. Within some coesite-bearing eclogites the presence of glaucophane cores to barroisite is noted whereas in most samples porphyroblastic sodic-calcic amphiboles are rimmed by more aluminous calcic amphibole (pargasite, tschermakite, and edenite). Eclogite facies rutile is replaced by ilmenite which itself is commonly surrounded by titanite. In addition, some eclogite bodies show leucocratic segregations containing phengite, quartz, zoisite and/or kyanite. The important implication is that the complex exhumation path shows stages of initial cooling during decompression (formation of glaucophane) followed by reheating: a very similar situation to that reported for the coesite-bearing eclogite series of the Tso Morari massif, India, 450 km to the south-east.
In 1915, Alfred Wegener published his hypotheses of plate tectonics that revolutionised the world for geologists. Since then, many scientists have studied the evolution of continents and especially the geologic structure of orogens: the most visible consequence of tectonic processes. Although the morphology and landscape evolution of mountain belts can be observed due to surface processes, the driving force and dynamics at lithosphere scale are less well understood despite the fact that rocks from deeper levels of orogenic belts are in places exposed at the surface. In this thesis, such formerly deeply-buried (ultra-) high-pressure rocks, in particular eclogite facies series, have been studied in order to reveal details about the formation and exhumation conditions and rates and thus provide insights into the geodynamics of the most spectacular orogenic belt in the world: the Himalaya. The specific area investigated was the Kaghan Valley in Pakistan (NW Himalaya). Following closure of the Tethyan Ocean by ca. 55-50 Ma, the northward subduction of the leading edge of India beneath the Eurasian Plate and subsequent collision initiated a long-lived process of intracrustal thrusting that continues today. The continental crust of India – granitic basement, Paleozoic and Mesozoic cover series and Permo-Triassic dykes, sills and lavas – has been buried partly to mantle depths. Today, these rocks crop out as eclogites, amphibolites and gneisses within the Higher Himalayan Crystalline between low-grade metamorphosed rocks (600-640°C/ ca. 5 kbar) of the Lesser Himalaya and Tethyan sediments. Beside tectonically driven exhumation mechanisms the channel flow model, that describes a denudation focused ductile extrusion of low viscosity material developed in the middle to lower crust beneath the Tibetan Plateau, has been postulated. To get insights into the lithospheric and crustal processes that have initiated and driven the exhumation of this (ultra-) high-pressure rocks, mineralogical, petrological and isotope-geochemical investigations have been performed. They provide insights into 1) the depths and temperatures to which these rocks were buried, 2) the pressures and temperatures the rocks have experienced during their exhumation, 3) the timing of these processes 4) and the velocity with which these rocks have been brought back to the surface. In detail, through microscopical studies, the identification of key minerals, microprobe analyses, standard geothermobarometry and modelling using an effective bulk rock composition it has been shown that published exhumation paths are incomplete. In particular, the eclogites of the northern Kaghan Valley were buried to depths of 140-100 km (36-30 kbar) at 790-640°C. Subsequently, cooling during decompression (exhumation) towards 40-35 km (17-10 kbar) and 630-580°C has been superseded by a phase of reheating to about 720-650°C at roughly the same depth before final exhumation has taken place. In the southern-most part of the study area, amphibolite facies assemblages with formation conditions similar to the deduced reheating phase indicate a juxtaposition of both areas after the eclogite facies stage and thus a stacking of Indian Plate units. Radiometric dating of zircon, titanite and rutile by U-Pb and amphibole and micas by Ar-Ar reveal peak pressure conditions at 47-48 Ma. With a maximum exhumation rate of 14 cm/a these rocks reached the crust-mantle boundary at 40-35 km within 1 Ma. Subsequent exhumation (46-41 Ma, 40-35 km) decelerated to ca. 1 mm/a at the base of the continental crust but rose again to about 2 mm/a in the period of 41-31 Ma, equivalent to 35-20 km. Apatite fission track (AFT) and (U-Th)/He ages from eclogites, amphibolites, micaschists and gneisses yielded moderate Oligocene to Miocene cooling rates of about 10°C/Ma in the high altitude northern parts of the Kaghan Valley using the mineral-pair method. AFT ages are of 24.5±3.8 to 15.6±2.1 Ma whereas apatite (U-Th)/He analyses yielded ages between 21.0±0.6 and 5.3±0.2 Ma. The southern-most part of the Valley is dominated by younger late Miocene to Pliocene apatite fission track ages of 7.6±2.1 and 4.0±0.5 Ma that support earlier tectonically and petrologically findings of a juxtaposition and stack of Indian Plate units. As this nappe is tectonically lowermost, a later distinct exhumation and uplift driven by thrusting along the Main Boundary Thrust is inferred. A multi-stage exhumation path is evident from petrological, isotope-geochemical and low temperature thermochronology investigations. Buoyancy driven exhumation caused an initial rapid exhumation: exhumation as fast as recent normal plate movements (ca. 10 cm/a). As the exhuming units reached the crust-mantle boundary the process slowed down due to changes in buoyancy. Most likely, this exhumation pause has initiated the reheating event that is petrologically evident (e.g. glaucophane rimmed by hornblende, ilmenite overgrowth of rutile). Late stage processes involved widespread thrusting and folding with accompanied regional greenschist facies metamorphism, whereby contemporaneous thrusting on the Batal Thrust (seen by some authors equivalent to the MCT) and back sliding of the Kohistan Arc along the inverse reactivated Main Mantle Thrust caused final exposure of these rocks. Similar circumstances have been seen at Tso Morari, Ladakh, India, 200 km further east where comparable rock assemblages occur. In conclusion, as exhumation was already done well before the initiation of the monsoonal system, climate dependent effects (erosion) appear negligible in comparison to far-field tectonic effects.
Cenozoic uplift of the East African Plateau has been associated with fundamental climatic and environmental changes in East Africa and adjacent regions. While this influence is widely accepted, the timing and the magnitude of plateau uplift have remained unclear. This uncertainty stems from the lack of datable, geomorphically meaningful reference horizons that could record surface uplift. Here, we document the existence of significant relief along the East African Plateau prior to rifting, as inferred from modeling the emplacement history of one of the longest terrestrial lava flows, the similar to 300-km-long Yatta phonolite flow in Kenya. This 13.5 Ma lava flow originated on the present-day eastern Kenya Rift flank, and utilized a riverbed that once routed runoff from the eastern rim of the plateau. Combining an empirical viscosity model with subsequent cooling and using the Yatta lava flow geometry and underlying paleotopography (slope angle), we found that the prerift slope was at least 0.2 degrees, suggesting that the lava flow originated at a minimum elevation of 1400 m. Hence, high paleotopography in the Kenya Rift region must have existed by at least 13.5 Ma. We infer from this that middle Miocene uplift occurred, which coincides with the two-step expansion of grasslands, as well as important radiation and speciation events in tropical Africa.
Although the effects of grazing-induced savannah degradation on animal diversity are well documented, knowledge of how they affect space use or responding behaviour remains poor. In this study, we analysed space use of the spotted sand lizard (Pedioplanis l. lineoocellata) in degraded versus nondegraded habitats of southern Kalahari savannah habitats. Lizards were radio tracked, daily movement distances recorded and home range sizes calculated. In degraded Kalahari savannah habitats where plant diversity and perennial grass cover are low but shrub cover high, P. lineoocellata moves larger distances (40.88 +/- 6.42 m versus 27.43 +/- 5.08 m) and occupies larger home ranges (646.64 +/- 244.84 m(2) versus 209.15 +/- 109.84 m(2)) than in nondegraded habitats (high plant diversity, high perennial grass cover and low shrub cover). We assume that this increase in daily movement distances and home range sizes is a behavioural plasticity to limited food resources in degraded savannah habitats. Although P. lineoocellata is able to adjust to resource-poor savannah habitats, the increase in the lizard's movement activities is likely to result in a higher predation risk. This is supported by the lower availability of protective vegetation i.e. perennial grass cover. Hence, we conclude that despite behavioural plasticity of P. lineoocellata, overgrazing has a severe negative impact on the space use of P. lineoocellata.
The Eastern Cordillera of the Colombian Andes represents an inverted Cretaceous basin where Cretaceous magmatism is characterized by rare mafic dykes and sills. We use Ar-40/Ar-39, Sr-Nd-Pb isotopes, as well as major and trace elements analyses of Cretaceous intrusions from both flanks of the Eastern Cordillera in combination with structural data to document the complex evolution of the basin. Magmatism, which is diachronous and geochemically diverse, seems to be related to mantle melting beneath the most subsiding segments of each sub-basin during enhanced extensional tectonics. The mafic intrusions display two different compositional series: an alkaline one with OIB-like pattern and a tholeiitic one with MORB-like features. This indicates at least two diverse mantle sources. Trace-element patterns suggest that the intrusions were emplaced in an extensional setting. Ar-40/Ar-39 dating on primary plagioclase and hornblende provides plateau ages between similar to 136 and similar to 74 Ma. The geochemical and temporal diversities show that the emplacement of the magmas was tectonically controlled, each sub-basin reflecting an individual subsidence event.
Map form information on forest biomass is required for estimating bioenergy potentials and monitoring carbon stocks. In Finland, the growing stock of forests is monitored using multi-source forest inventory, where variables are estimated in the form of thematic maps and area statistics by combining information of field measurements, satellite images and other digital map data. In this study, we used the multi-source forest inventory methodology for estimating forest biomass characteristics. The biomass variables were estimated for national forest inventory field plots on the basis of measured tree variables. The plot-level biomass estimates were used as reference data for satellite image interpretation. The estimates produced by satellite image interpretation were tested by cross-validation. The results indicate that the method for producing biomass maps on the basis of biomass models and satellite image interpretation is operationally feasible. Furthermore, the accuracy of the estimates of biomass variables is similar or even higher than that of traditional growing stock volume estimates. The technique presented here can be applied, for example, in estimating biomass resources or in the inventory of greenhouse gases.
The cover of large trees in African savannahs is rapidly declining, mainly due to human land-use practices. Trees improve grass nutrient quality and contribute to species and structural diversity of savannah vegetation. However, the response of herbivores to trees as habitat features is unknown We quantified the habitat use of wild and domestic ungulates in two eastern and southern African savannahs. We assessed grazing intensities and quantified dung depositions beneath and around canopies of different sized trees. Grasses were eaten and dung was deposited twice as frequently beneath large (ca. 5 m in height) and very large trees (7-10 m) than in open grasslands. Small trees (<2.5 m) did not show this trend. Grazing intensity and dung deposition decreased with distance away from trees at both study sites. These results suggest that large trees represent essential habitat features for domestic and wild herbivores. Increased dung depositions beneath large trees may further promote the maintenance of a patchy nutrient distribution in savannahs. Small trees cannot provide the same structural and functional advantages as large trees do. We recommend that land-use practices be promoted which conserve large single-standing trees to benefit the flora and fauna of African savannahs.
The development of rise Cenozoic East African Rift System (EARS) profoundly re-shaped the landscape and significantly increased the amplitude of short-term environmental response to climate variation. In particular, the development of amplifier lakes in rift basins after three million years ago significantly contributed to this exceptional sensitivity of East Africa to climate change compared to elsewhere on the African continent. Amplifier lakes are characterized by tectonically-formed graben morphologies in combination with an extreme contrast between high precipitation in the elevated parts of the catchment and high evaporation in the lake area. Such amplifier lakes respond rapidly to moderate, precessional-forced climate shifts, and as they do so apply dramatic environmental pressure to the biosphere. Rift basins, when either extremely dry or lake-filled, form important barriers for migration, mixing and competition of different populations of animals and hominins. Amplifier lakes link long-term, high-amplitude tectonic processes and short-term environmental fluctuations. East Africa may have become the place where early humans evolved as a consequence of this strong link between different time scales. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
The depositional geometry and facies distribution of an Early Miocene (Burdigalian) carbonate system in the Perfugas Basin (NW Sardinia) comprise a well-exposed example of a transition from a ramp to a steep-flanked platform. The carbonate succession (Sedini Limestone Unit) is composed of two depositional sequences separated by a major erosional unconformity. The lower (sequence 1) records a ramp dominated by heterozoan producers and the upper (sequence 2) is dominated by photozoan producers and displays a gradual steepening of the depositional profile into a steep- flanked platform. This paper shows the process of creating a digital outcrop model including a facies model. This process consists of combining field data sets, including 17 sedimentary logs, and a spatial dataset consisting of differential global positioning system data points measured along key stratigraphic surfaces and sedimentary logs, with the goal of locking traditional field observations into a 3D spatial model. Establishing a precise geometrical framework and visualizing the overall change in the platform geometry and the related vertical and lateral facies variations of the Sedini carbonate platform, allows us to better understand the sedimentary processes leading to the geometrical turn- over of the platform. Furthermore, a detailed facies modeling helps us to gain insight into the detailed depositional dynamics. The final model reproduces faithfully the depositional geometries observed in the outcrops and helps in understanding the relationships between facies and architectural framework at the basin scale. Moreover, it provides the basis to characterize semiquantitatively regional sedimentological features and to make further reservoir and subsurface analogue studies.
Drylands worldwide are exposed to a highly variable environment and face a high risk of degradation. The effects of global climate change such as altered precipitation patterns and increased temperature leading to reduced water availability will likely increase this risk. At the same time, an elevated atmospheric CO2 level could mitigate the effects of reduced water availability by increasing the water use efficiency of plants. To prevent degradation of drylands, it is essential to understand the underlying processes that affect water availability and vegetation cover. Since water and vegetation are strongly interdependent in water-limited ecosystems, changes can lead to highly non- linear effects. We assess these effects by developing an ecohydrological model of soil moisture and vegetation cover. The water component of the model simulates the daily dynamics of surface water and water contents in two soil layers. Vegetation is represented by two functional types: shrubs and grasses. These compete for soil water and strongly influence hydrological processes. We apply the model to a Namibian thornbush savanna and evaluate the separate and combined effects of decreased annual precipitation, increased temperature, more variable precipitation and elevated atmospheric CO2 on soil moisture and on vegetation cover. The results show that two main factors control the response of plant types towards climate change, namely a change in water availability and a change in water allocation to a specific plant type. Especially, reduced competitiveness of grasses can lead to a higher risk of shrub encroachment in these systems.
The globally threatened Aquatic Warbler Acrocephalus paludicola is an umbrella species for fen mires and is at risk of extinction in its westernmost breeding population due to severe habitat loss. We used boosted regression trees to model Aquatic Warbler habitat selection in order to make recommendations for effective management of the last remnant habitats. Habitat data were collected in the years 2004-2006 in all remaining breeding sites in Pomerania (eastern Germany and western Poland) as well as in recently abandoned sites. Models were validated using data from similar Aquatic Warbler habitats in Lithuania. The probability of occurrence of Aquatic Warblers in late May/early June was positively associated with low isolation from other occupied sites, less eutrophic conditions, a high proportion of area mown early in the preceding year, high availability of vegetation 60-70 cm high, high prey abundance and high habitat heterogeneity. Early summer land management is needed in the more productive sites to prevent habitat deterioration by succession to higher and denser vegetation. As this also poses a serious threat to broods, management that creates a mosaic of early and late used patches is recommended to preserve and restore productive Aquatic Warbler sites. In less productive sites, winter mowing can maintain suitable habitat conditions. Aquatic Warbler-friendly land use supports a variety of other threatened plant and animal species typical of fens and sedge meadows and can meet the economic interests of local land users.
Development of techniques for earthquake microzonation studies in different urban environment
(2010)
The proliferation of megacities in many developing countries, and their location in areas where they are exposed to a high risk from large earthquakes, coupled with a lack of preparation, demonstrates the requirement for improved capabilities in hazard assessment, as well as the rapid adjustment and development of land-use planning. In particular, within the context of seismic hazard assessment, the evaluation of local site effects and their influence on the spatial distribution of ground shaking generated by an earthquake plays an important role. It follows that the carrying out of earthquake microzonation studies, which aim at identify areas within the urban environment that are expected to respond in a similar way to a seismic event, are essential to the reliable risk assessment of large urban areas. Considering the rate at which many large towns in developing countries that are prone to large earthquakes are growing, their seismic microzonation has become mandatory. Such activities are challenging and techniques suitable for identifying site effects within such contexts are needed. In this dissertation, I develop techniques for investigating large-scale urban environments that aim at being non-invasive, cost-effective and quickly deployable. These peculiarities allow one to investigate large areas over a relative short time frame, with a spatial sampling resolution sufficient to provide reliable microzonation. Although there is a negative trade-off between the completeness of available information and extent of the investigated area, I attempt to mitigate this limitation by combining two, what I term layers, of information: in the first layer, the site effects at a few calibration points are well constrained by analyzing earthquake data or using other geophysical information (e.g., shear-wave velocity profiles); in the second layer, the site effects over a larger areal coverage are estimated by means of single-station noise measurements. The microzonation is performed in terms of problem-dependent quantities, by considering a proxy suitable to link information from the first layer to the second one. In order to define the microzonation approach proposed in this work, different methods for estimating site effects have been combined and tested in Potenza (Italy), where a considerable amount of data was available. In particular, the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio computed for seismic noise recorded at different sites has been used as a proxy to combine the two levels of information together and to create a microzonation map in terms of spectral intensity ratio (SIR). In the next step, I applied this two-layer approach to Istanbul (Turkey) and Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan). A similar hybrid approach, i.e., combining earthquake and noise data, has been used for the microzonation of these two different urban environments. For both cities, after having calibrated the fundamental frequencies of resonance estimated from seismic noise with those obtained by analysing earthquakes (first layer), a fundamental frequency map has been computed using the noise measurements carried out within the town (second layer). By applying this new approach, maps of the fundamental frequency of resonance for Istanbul and Bishkek have been published for the first time. In parallel, a microzonation map in terms of SIR has been incorporated into a risk scenario for the Potenza test site by means of a dedicated regression between spectral intensity (SI) and macroseismic intensity (EMS). The scenario study confirms the importance of site effects within the risk chain. In fact, their introduction into the scenario led to an increase of about 50% in estimates of the number of buildings that would be partially or totally collapsed. Last, but not least, considering that the approach developed and applied in this work is based on measurements of seismic noise, their reliability has been assessed. A theoretical model describing the self-noise curves of different instruments usually adopted in microzonation studies (e.g., those used in Potenza, Istanbul and Bishkek) have been considered and compared with empirical data recorded in Cologne (Germany) and Gubbio (Italy). The results show that, depending on the geological and environmental conditions, the instrumental noise could severely bias the results obtained by recording and analysing ambient noise. Therefore, in this work I also provide some guidelines for measuring seismic noise.
To balance the steady decrease of conventional hydrocarbon resources, increased utilization of unconventional and new energy resources, such as shale gas and geothermal energy, is required. Also, the geological sequestration of carbon dioxide is being considered as a technology that may temporarily mitigate the effects of CO2 emission. Sites suitable for shale gas production, geothermal exploration, or CO2 sequestration are commonly characterized by electrical resistivities distinctly different from those of the surrounding rocks. Therefore, electromagnetic methods can be viable tools to help identify target sites suitable for exploration, and to monitor reservoirs during energy production or CO2 injection. Among the wide variety of electromagnetic methods available, controlled-source magnetotelluric (CSMT) may be particularly suitable because of (i) its ability to resolve both electrically resistive and conductive structures, (ii) controlled sources offering noise control and thus facilitating surveys in populated regions, and (iii) the potential of penetration throughout the depth range accessible by drilling. Nevertheless, CSMT has not yet been widely employed because of logistical challenges of field operations and the requirement of complex and highly computer-intensive data processing. With these difficulties gradually being mitigated by recent technological developments, CSMT may now be reconsidered as an exploration tool. Here, we investigate by 1D and 3D numerical simulations the feasibility of detecting gas shales and identifying sites eligible for geothermal exploration or CO2 sequestration from CSMT data. We consider surface-to-surface, borehole-to-surface, and cross-hole configurations of the sources and receivers. Results and conclusions on the detectability of the targets of interest are presented for various exploration and monitoring scenarios, which are roughly representative of the geological setting of the North German Basin.
Unraveling the processes responsible for Earth's climate transition from an "El Nino-like state" during the warm early Pliocene into a modern-like "La Nina-dominated state" currently challenges the scientific community. Recently, the Pliocene climate switch has been linked to oceanic thermocline shoaling at similar to 3 million years ago along with Earth's final transition into a bipolar icehouse world. Here we present Pliocene proxy data and climate model results, which suggest an earlier timing of the Pliocene climate switch and a different chain of forcing mechanisms. We show that the increase in North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation between 4.8 and 4.0 million years ago, initiated by the progressive closure of the Central American Seaway, triggered overall shoaling of the tropical thermocline. This preconditioned the turnaround from a warm eastern equatorial Pacific to the modern equatorial cold tongue state about 1 million years earlier than previously assumed. Since similar to 3.6-3.5 million years ago, the intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciation resulted in a strengthening of the trade winds, thereby amplifying upwelling and biogenic productivity at low latitudes.
In this investigation we analyze the evolution of forms that constitute the Copiapo River estuarine system during the past 30 years. Through photo interpretation and field work is possible to realize that during the period, the essential forms of the estuary haven't manifest significant changes, on the other hand, estuarine complex such as the estuarine lagoon, sandy beach and dunes have presented modifications. The most significant morphological elements in order to understand these phenomena of changes have been the dynamics of waves and their spatial correlation with the width of the surf zone and dune continuum. The basic shapes present stabilization in their dynamic, which allows us to consider the estuarine system of Copiapo, a paleoestuario.
The temperature range of the apatite fission-track partial annealing zone (PAZ) varies as a function of the kinetic characteristics of the apatite crystal as well as the cooling rate. These kinetic characteristics are controlled largely by the chemical composition of the apatites; fission-track etch pit diameter (D-par) has been shown to be a proxy for quantifying these characteristics. Since some annealing models explicitly use D-par as a kinetic indicator, the question of whether D-par varies according to either operator variability or etching conditions has serious implications. The influence of etching conditions includes both minor variations in temperature and etch time as well as larger variations between the three popular concentrations of nitric acid that are presently in use within the fission- track community: 5 and 5.5 M HNO3 at 21 degrees C for 20 s, and 1.6 M (7 vol.%) HNO3 at 21 degrees C for 45 or 50 s. We have conducted a systematic study of D-par in two widely used apatite age standards: Durango and Fish Canyon Tuff (FCT). Samples were analyzed by at least 2 operators in 2 laboratories; over 15,000 etch pits were measured. Operator imprecision is small compared to other effects both within and between operators. The measured D-par parameters depend primarily on etching conditions including concentration of etchant, and the time and temperature of etching. D-par size increases linearly with time but non-linearly with temperature. Differences between D-par size of Durango and FCT are significantly smaller for the 1.6 M etch compared to the other two etches, implying that the weak etch has less resolving power for D-par measurements. In addition, when etching conditions are changed, confined track lengths for different apatite compositions and D-par values co-vary in a complex fashion. Therefore, the 5 or 5.5 M etch is recommended for studies that employ D-par as a proxy for chemistry; the 1.6 M etch and other weak etches are not recommended. We propose a linear correction for D-par based on measuring D-par in two widely available AFT age standards, Durango and FCT, and cross-plotting the results with those obtained by R. Donelick. The slope of the resulting curve, which passes through the origin, provides a correction factor. This system yields reasonably good corrected values for 3 test samples using the 5 M and 5.5 M HNO3 etches.
Magnetic susceptibility is an important indicator of anthropogenic disturbance in the natural soil. This property is often mapped with magnetic gradiometers in archaeological prospection studies. It is also detected with frequency domain electromagnetic induction (FDEM) sensors, which have the advantage that they can simultaneously measure the electrical conductivity. The detection level of FDEM sensors for magnetic structures is very dependent on the coil configuration. Apart from theoretical modelling studies, a thorough investigation with field models has not been conducted until now. Therefore, the goal of this study was to test multiple coil configurations on a test field with naturally enhanced magnetic susceptibility in the topsoil and with different types of structures mimicking real archaeological features. Two FDEM sensors were used with coil separations between 0.5 and 2 m and with three coil orientations. First, a vertical sounding was conducted over the undisturbed soil to test the validity of a theoretical layered model, which can be used to infer the depth sensitivity of the coil configurations. The modelled sounding values corresponded well with the measured data, which means that the theoretical models are applicable to layered soils. Second, magnetic structures were buried in the site and the resulting anomalies measured to a very high resolution. The results showed remarkable differences in amplitude and complexity between the responses of the coil configurations. The 2-m horizontal coplanar and 1.1-m perpendicular coil configurations produced the clearest anomalies and resembled best a gradiometer measurement.
Two types of electrical conductivity sensors were evaluated to prospect circular ditches surrounding former Bronze Age burial mounds, complementing aerial photography. The first sensor was based on the electrical resistivity (ER) method, while the second sensor was based on frequency-domain electromagnetic induction (FDEM). Both sensors were designed with multiple receivers, which measure several depth sensitivities simultaneously. First, the sensors were tested on an experimental site where a rectangular structure with limited dimensions was dug in a sandy soil. The structure appeared as a higher conductivity anomaly in the low-conductivity sand. Then, both methods were applied on two Bronze Age sites with different soil properties, which were discovered by aerial photography. The first site, in a sandy soil, gave only very weak anomalies. Soil augering revealed that the ditch filling consisted of the same sandy material as the surrounding, therefore this filling was not able to cause a high-conductivity contrast. Due to its lower sensitivity to noise in the low-conductive range, the ER-sensor produced a more pronounced anomaly than the FDEM-sensor. The second site was located on top of a ridge with a shallow substrate of Tertiary, coastal sediments. The ditch was very clearly visible on the sensor maps as a conductive low. At this location, the soil augering revealed that the ditch was dug through an alternating clay-sand layer and subsequently filled up with silty material from the topsoil. Overall, the shallow receiver separation produced anomalies that were both stronger and that corresponded better to the geometry of the ditches. The other receiver separations provided more information on the natural soil layering, and in the case of the ER-array they could be used to obtain a cross-section of the actual electrical conductivity with 2-D inversion modelling. The results of this study proofed that conductivity sensors can detect Bronze Age ditches, with varying contrast depending on the soil geomorphology. Moreover, the sensor maps combined with soil observations by coring provided insight in the environmental conditions that influence the contrast of the anomalies seen on the aerial photographs and the sensor maps.
This study models maximum temperatures in Switzerland monitored in twelve locations using the generalised extreme value (GEV) distribution. The parameters of the GEV distribution are determined within a Bayesian framework. We find that the parameters of the underlying distribution underwent a substantial change in the beginning of the 1980s. This change is characterised by an increase both in the level and the variability. We assess the likelihood of the heat wave of the summer 2003 using the fitted GEV distribution by accounting for the presence of a structural break. The estimation results do suggest that the heat wave of 2003 is not that statistically improbable if an appropriate methodology is used for dealing with nonstationarity.
Global climate and the atmospheric partial pressure of carbon dioxide (p(CO2atm)) are correlated over recent glacial cycles, with lower p(CO2atm) during ice ages, but the causes of the p(CO2atm) changes are unknown. The modern Southern Ocean releases deeply sequestered CO2 to the atmosphere. Growing evidence suggests that the Southern Ocean CO2 'leak' was stemmed during ice ages, increasing ocean CO2 storage. Such a change would also have made the global ocean more alkaline, driving additional ocean CO2 uptake. This explanation for lower ice-age p(CO2atm), if correct, has much to teach us about the controls on current ocean processes.
Crustal deformation can be the result of volcanic and tectonic activity such as fault dislocation and magma intrusion. The crustal deformation may precede and/or succeed the earthquake occurrence and eruption. Mitigating the associated hazard, continuous monitoring of the crustal deformation accordingly has become an important task for geo-observatories and fast response systems. Due to highly non-linear behavior of the crustal deformation fields in time and space, which are not always measurable using conventional geodetic methods (e.g., Leveling), innovative techniques of monitoring and analysis are required. In this thesis I describe novel methods to improve the ability for precise and accurate mapping the spatiotemporal surface deformation field using multi acquisitions of satellite radar data. Furthermore, to better understand the source of such spatiotemporal deformation fields, I present novel static and time dependent model inversion approaches. Almost any interferograms include areas where the signal decorrelates and is distorted by atmospheric delay. In this thesis I detail new analysis methods to reduce the limitations of conventional InSAR, by combining the benefits of advanced InSAR methods such as the permanent scatterer InSAR (PSI) and the small baseline subsets (SBAS) with a wavelet based data filtering scheme. This novel InSAR time series methodology is applied, for instance, to monitor the non-linear deformation processes at Hawaii Island. The radar phase change at Hawaii is found to be due to intrusions, eruptions, earthquakes and flank movement processes and superimposed by significant environmental artifacts (e.g., atmospheric). The deformation field, I obtained using the new InSAR analysis method, is in good agreement with continuous GPS data. This provides an accurate spatiotemporal deformation field at Hawaii, which allows time dependent source modeling. Conventional source modeling methods usually deal with static deformation field, while retrieving the dynamics of the source requires more sophisticated time dependent optimization approaches. This problem I address by combining Monte Carlo based optimization approaches with a Kalman Filter, which provides the model parameters of the deformation source consistent in time. I found there are numerous deformation sources at Hawaii Island which are spatiotemporally interacting, such as volcano inflation is associated to changes in the rifting behavior, and temporally linked to silent earthquakes. I applied these new methods to other tectonic and volcanic terrains, most of which revealing the importance of associated or coupled deformation sources. The findings are 1) the relation between deep and shallow hydrothermal and magmatic sources underneath the Campi Flegrei volcano, 2) gravity-driven deformation at Damavand volcano, 3) fault interaction associated with the 2010 Haiti earthquake, 4) independent block wise flank motion at the Hilina Fault system, Kilauea, and 5) interaction between salt diapir and the 2005 Qeshm earthquake in southern Iran. This thesis, written in cumulative form including 9 manuscripts published or under review in peer reviewed journals, improves the techniques for InSAR time series analysis and source modeling and shows the mutual dependence between adjacent deformation sources. These findings allow more realistic estimation of the hazard associated with complex volcanic and tectonic systems.
Simulation of spatial sensor characteristics in the context of the EnMAP Hyperspectral mission
(2010)
The simulation of remote sensing images is a valuable tool for defining future Earth observation systems, optimizing instrument parameters, and developing and validating data-processing algorithms. A scene simulator for optical Earth observation data has been developed within the Environmental Mapping and Analysis Program (EnMAP) hyperspectral mission. It produces EnMAP-like data following a sequential processing approach consisting of five independent modules referred to as reflectance, atmospheric, spatial, spectral, and radiometric modules. From a modeling viewpoint, the spatial module is the most complex. The spatial simulation process considers the satellite-target geometry, which is adapted to the EnMAP orbit and operating characteristics, the instrument spatial response, and the sources of spatial nonuniformity (keystone, telescope distortion and smile, and detector coregistration). The spatial module of the EnMAP scene simulator is presented in this paper. The EnMAP spatial and geometric characteristics will be described, the simulation methodology will be presented in detail, and the capability of the EnMAP simulator will be shown by illustrative examples.
In the high mountains of Asia, glaciers cover an area of approximately 115,000 km² and constitute one of the largest continental ice accumulations outside Greenland and Antarctica. Their sensitivity to climate change makes them valuable palaeoclimate archives, but also vulnerable to current and predicted Global Warming. This is a pressing problem as snow and glacial melt waters are important sources for agriculture and power supply of densely populated regions in south, east, and central Asia. Successful prediction of the glacial response to climate change in Asia and mitigation of the socioeconomic impacts requires profound knowledge of the climatic controls and the dynamics of Asian glaciers. However, due to their remoteness and difficult accessibility, ground-based studies are rare, as well as temporally and spatially limited. We therefore lack basic information on the vast majority of these glaciers. In this thesis, I employ different methods to assess the dynamics of Asian glaciers on multiple time scales. First, I tested a method for precise satellite-based measurement of glacier-surface velocities and conducted a comprehensive and regional survey of glacial flow and terminus dynamics of Asian glaciers between 2000 and 2008. This novel and unprecedented dataset provides unique insights into the contrasting topographic and climatic controls of glacial flow velocities across the Asian highlands. The data document disparate recent glacial behavior between the Karakoram and the Himalaya, which I attribute to the competing influence of the mid-latitude westerlies during winter and the Indian monsoon during summer. Second, I tested whether such climate-related longitudinal differences in glacial behavior also prevail on longer time scales, and potentially account for observed regionally asynchronous glacial advances. I used cosmogenic nuclide surface exposure dating of erratic boulders on moraines to obtain a glacial chronology for the upper Tons Valley, situated in the headwaters of the Ganges River. This area is located in the transition zone from monsoonal to westerly moisture supply and therefore ideal to examine the influence of these two atmospheric circulation regimes on glacial advances. The new glacial chronology documents multiple glacial oscillations during the last glacial termination and during the Holocene, suggesting largely synchronous glacial changes in the western Himalayan region that are related to gradual glacial-interglacial temperature oscillations with superimposed monsoonal precipitation changes of higher frequency. In a third step, I combine results from short-term satellite-based climate records and surface velocity-derived ice-flux estimates, with topographic analyses to deduce the erosional impact of glaciations on long-term landscape evolution in the Himalayan-Tibetan realm. The results provide evidence for the long-term effects of pronounced east-west differences in glaciation and glacial erosion, depending on climatic and topographic factors. Contrary to common belief the data suggest that monsoonal climate in the central Himalaya weakens glacial erosion at high elevations, helping to maintain a steep southern orographic barrier that protects the Tibetan Plateau from lateral destruction. The results of this thesis highlight how climatic and topographic gradients across the high mountains of Asia affect glacier dynamics on time scales ranging from 10^0 to 10^6 years. Glacial response times to climate changes are tightly linked to properties such as debris cover and surface slope, which are controlled by the topographic setting, and which need to be taken into account when reconstructing mountainous palaeoclimate from glacial histories or assessing the future evolution of Asian glaciers. Conversely, the regional topographic differences of glacial landscapes in Asia are partly controlled by climatic gradients and the long-term influence of glaciers on the topographic evolution of the orogenic system.
The hydrologic cycle of high mountainous catchments is frequently simulated with simple precipitation-discharge models representing the snow accumulation and ablation behavior of a very complex environment with a set of lumped equations accounting for altitudinal temperature and precipitation gradients. In this study, we present a methodology to include sparse snow depths measurements into the calibration process. Based on this methodology, we assess for a case study, the Rhonegletscher catchment (Switzerland), how much observed information we need to reliably calibrate the model, such that it reproduces the dominant system dynamics, discharge, as well as glacier mass balance. Here, we focus on the question whether observed discharge is sufficient as a calibration variable or whether we need annual or even seasonal glacier mass balance data. Introducing seasonally variable accumulation and ablation parameters is sufficient to enable the simple model to reproduce observed seasonal mass balances for the Rhonegletscher. Furthermore, our results suggest that calibrating the hydrological model exclusively on discharge can lead to wrong representations of the intra- annual accumulation and ablation processes and to a strong bias in long term glacier mass balance simulations. Adding only a few annual mass balance observations considerably reduces this bias. Calibrating exclusively on annual balance data can, in turn, lead to wrong seasonal mass balance simulations. Even if these results are case study specific, our conclusions provide valuable new insights into the benefit of different types of observations for calibrating hydrological models in glacier catchments. The presented multi-signal calibration framework and the simple method to calibrate a semi-lumped model on point observations has potential for application in other modeling contexts.
Large-scale volcanic deformation recently detected by radar interferometry (InSAR) provides new information and thus new scientific challenges for understanding volcano-tectonic activity and magmatic systems. The destabilization of such a system at depth noticeably affects the surrounding environment through magma injection, ground displacement and volcanic eruptions. To determine the spatiotemporal evolution of the Lazufre volcanic area located in the central Andes, we combined short-term ground displacement acquired by InSAR with long-term geological observations. Ground displacement was first detected using InSAR in 1997. By 2008, this displacement affected 1800 km2 of the surface, an area comparable in size to the deformation observed at caldera systems. The original displacement was followed in 2000 by a second, small-scale, neighbouring deformation located on the Lastarria volcano. We performed a detailed analysis of the volcanic structures at Lazufre and found relationships with the volcano deformations observed with InSAR. We infer that these observations are both likely to be the surface expression of a long-lived magmatic system evolving at depth. It is not yet clear whether Lazufre may trigger larger unrest or volcanic eruptions; however, the second deformation detected at Lastarria and the clear increase of the large-scale deformation rate make this an area of particular interest for closer continuous monitoring.
Situated in an active tectonic region, Santiago de Chile, the country´s capital with more than six million inhabitants, faces tremendous earthquake hazard. Macroseismic data for the 1985 Valparaiso and the 2010 Maule events show large variations in the distribution of damage to buildings within short distances indicating strong influence of local sediments and the shape of the sediment-bedrock interface on ground motion. Therefore, a temporary seismic network was installed in the urban area for recording earthquake activity, and a study was carried out aiming to estimate site amplification derived from earthquake data and ambient noise. The analysis of earthquake data shows significant dependence on the local geological structure with regards to amplitude and duration. Moreover, the analysis of noise spectral ratios shows that they can provide a lower bound in amplitude for site amplification and, since no variability in terms of time and amplitude is observed, that it is possible to map the fundamental resonance frequency of the soil for a 26 km x 12 km area in the northern part of the Santiago de Chile basin. By inverting the noise spectral rations, local shear wave velocity profiles could be derived under the constraint of the thickness of the sedimentary cover which had previously been determined by gravimetric measurements. The resulting 3D model was derived by interpolation between the single shear wave velocity profiles and shows locally good agreement with the few existing velocity profile data, but allows the entire area, as well as deeper parts of the basin, to be represented in greater detail. The wealth of available data allowed further to check if any correlation between the shear wave velocity in the uppermost 30 m (vs30) and the slope of topography, a new technique recently proposed by Wald and Allen (2007), exists on a local scale. While one lithology might provide a greater scatter in the velocity values for the investigated area, almost no correlation between topographic gradient and calculated vs30 exists, whereas a better link is found between vs30 and the local geology. When comparing the vs30 distribution with the MSK intensities for the 1985 Valparaiso event it becomes clear that high intensities are found where the expected vs30 values are low and over a thick sedimentary cover. Although this evidence cannot be generalized for all possible earthquakes, it indicates the influence of site effects modifying the ground motion when earthquakes occur well outside of the Santiago basin. Using the attained knowledge on the basin characteristics, simulations of strong ground motion within the Santiago Metropolitan area were carried out by means of the spectral element technique. The simulation of a regional event, which has also been recorded by a dense network installed in the city of Santiago for recording aftershock activity following the 27 February 2010 Maule earthquake, shows that the model is capable to realistically calculate ground motion in terms of amplitude, duration, and frequency and, moreover, that the surface topography and the shape of the sediment bedrock interface strongly modify ground motion in the Santiago basin. An examination on the dependency of ground motion on the hypocenter location for a hypothetical event occurring along the active San Ramón fault, which is crossing the eastern outskirts of the city, shows that the unfavorable interaction between fault rupture, radiation mechanism, and complex geological conditions in the near-field may give rise to large values of peak ground velocity and therefore considerably increase the level of seismic risk for Santiago de Chile.
Das Parallel-Seismik-Verfahren dient vor allem der nachträglichen Längenmessung von Fundamentpfählen oder ähnlichen Elementen zur Gründung von Bauwerken. Eine solche Messung wird beispielsweise notwendig, wenn ein Gebäude verstärkt, erhöht oder anders als bisher genutzt werden soll, aber keine Unterlagen mehr über die Fundamente vorhanden sind. Das Messprinzip des schon seit einigen Jahrzehnten bekannten Verfahrens ist relativ einfach: Auf dem Pfahlkopf wird meist durch Hammerschlag eine Stoßwelle erzeugt, die durch den Pfahl nach unten läuft. Dabei wird Energie in den Boden abgegeben. Die abgestrahlten Wellen werden von Sensoren in einem parallel zum Pfahl hergestellten Bohrloch registriert. Aus den Laufzeiten lassen sich die materialspezifischen Wellengeschwindigkeiten im Pfahl und im Boden sowie die Pfahllänge ermitteln. Bisher wurde meist ein sehr einfaches Verfahren zur Datenauswertung verwendet, das die Länge der Pfähle systematisch überschätzt. In der vorliegenden Dissertation wurden die mathematisch-physikalischen Grundlagen beleuchtet und durch Computersimulation die Wellenausbreitung in Pfahl und Boden genau untersucht. Weitere Simulationen klärten den Einfluss verschiedener Mess- und Strukturparameter, beispielsweise den Einfluss von Bodenschichtung oder Fehlstellen im Pfahl. So konnte geklärt werden, in welchen Fällen mit dem Parallel-Seismik-Verfahren gute Ergebnisse erzielt werden können (z. B. bei Fundamenten in Sand oder Ton) und wo es an seine Grenzen stößt (z. B. bei Gründung im Fels). Auf Basis dieser Ergebnisse entstand ein neuer mathematischer Formalismus zur Auswertung der Laufzeiten. In Verbindung mit einem Verfahren zur Dateninversion, d. h. der automatischen Anpassung der Unbekannten in den Gleichungen an die Messergebnisse, lassen sich sehr viel genauere Werte für die Pfahllänge ermitteln als mit allen bisher publizierten Verfahren. Zudem kann man nun auch mit relativ großen Abständen zwischen Bohrloch und Pfahl (2 - 3 m) arbeiten. Die Methode wurde an simulierten Daten ausführlich getestet. Die Messmethode und das neue Auswerteverfahren wurden in einer Reihe praktischer Anwendungen getestet – und dies fast immer erfolgreich. Nur in einem Fall komplizierter Fundamentgeometrie bei gleichzeitig sehr hoher Anforderung an die Genauigkeit war schon nach Simulationen klar, dass hier ein Einsatz nicht sinnvoll ist. Dafür zeigte es sich, dass auch die Länge von Pfahlwänden und Spundwänden ermittelt werden kann. Die Parallel-Seismik-Methode funktioniert als einziges verfügbares Verfahren zur Fundamentlängenermittlung zugleich in den meisten Bodenarten sowie an metallischen und nichtmetallischen Fundamenten und kommt ohne Kalibrierung aus. Sie ist nun sehr viel breiter einsetzbar und liefert sehr viel genauere Ergebnisse. Die Simulationen zeigten noch Potential für Erweiterungen, zum Beispiel durch den Einsatz spezieller Sensoren, die zusätzliche Wellentypen empfangen und unterscheiden können.
In den letzten drei Jahrzehnten wurden in einigen Seen und Feuchtgebieten in bewaldeten Einzugsgebieten Nordost-Brandenburgs sinkende Wasserstände beobachtet. In diesen Gebieten bestimmt die Grundwasserneubildung im Einzugsgebiet maßgeblich das Wasserdargebot der Seen und Feuchtgebiete, die deshalb hier als grundwasserabhängige Landschaftselemente bezeichnet werden. Somit weisen die sinkenden Wasserstände auf einen Rückgang der wegen des geringen Niederschlagsdargebotes ohnehin schon geringen Grundwasserneubildung hin. Die Höhe der Grundwasserneubildung ist neben den hydroklimatischen Randbedingungen auch von der Landnutzung abhängig. Veränderungen in der Waldvegetation und der hydroklimatischen Randbedingungen bewirken Änderungen der Grundwasserneubildung und beeinflussen somit auch den Wasserhaushalt der Seen und Feuchtgebiete. Aktuell wird die Waldvegetation durch Kiefernmonokulturen dominiert, mit im Vergleich zu anderen Baumarten höherer Evapotranspiration. Entwicklungen in der Forstwirtschaft streben die Verringerung von Kiefernmonokulturen an. Diese sollen langfristig auf geeigneten Standorten durch Laubmischwälder ersetzt werden. Dadurch lassen sich eine geringere Evapotranspiration und damit eine höhere Grundwasserneubildung erreichen. In der vorliegenden Arbeit werden am Beispiel des Redernswalder Sees und des Briesensees die Ursachen der beobachteten sinkenden Wasserstände analysiert. Ihre Wasserstände nahmen in den letzten 25 Jahren um mehr als 3 Meter ab. Weiterhin wird untersucht, wie die erwarteten Klimaänderungen und Veränderungen in der Waldbewirtschaftung die zukünftige Grundwasserneubildung und den Wasserhaushalt von Seen beeinflussen können. Die Entwicklung der Grundwasserneubildung im Untersuchungsgebiet wurde mit dem Wasserhaushaltsmodell WaSiM-ETH simuliert. Die Analyse der Wechselwirkungen der Seen mit dem regionalen quartären Grundwasserleitersystem erfolgte mit dem 3D-Grundwassermodell FEFLOW. Mögliche zukünftige Veränderungen der Grundwasserneubildung und der Seewasserstände durch Klimaänderungen und Waldumbau wurden mit Szenarienrechnungen bis zum Jahr 2100 analysiert. Die modellgestützte Analyse zeigte, dass die beobachteten abnehmenden Wasserstände zu etwa gleichen Anteilen durch Veränderungen der hydroklimatischen Randbedingungen sowie durch Veränderungen in der Waldvegetation und damit abnehmenden Grundwasserneubildungsraten zu erklären sind. Die zukünftigen Entwicklungen der Grundwasserneubildung und der Wasserstände sind geprägt von sich ändernden hydroklimatischen Randbedingungen und einem sukzessiven Wandel der Kiefernbestände zu Laubwäldern. Der Waldumbau hat positive Wirkungen auf die Grundwasserneubildung und damit auf die Wasserstände. Damit können die Einflüsse des eingesetzten REMO-A1B-Klimaszenarios zum Ende des Modellzeitraumes durch den Waldumbau nicht kompensiert werden, das Sinken des Wasserstandes wird jedoch wesentlich reduziert. Bei dem moderateren REMO-B1-Klimaszenario werden die Wasserstände des Jahres 2008 durch den Waldumbau bis zum Jahr 2100 überschritten.
The seismically active Alborz mountains of northern Iran are an integral part of the Arabia-Eurasia collision. Linked strike-slip and thrust/reverse-fault systems in this mountain belt are characterized by slow loading rates, and large earthquakes are highly disparate in space and time. Similar to other intracontinental deformation zones such a pattern of tectonic activity is still insufficiently understood, because recurrence intervals between seismic events may be on the order of thousands of years, and are thus beyond the resolution of short term measurements based on GPS or instrumentally recorded seismicity. This study bridges the gap of deformation processes on different time scales. In particular, my investigation focuses on deformation on the Quaternary time scale, beyond present-day deformation rates, and it uses present-day and paleotectonic characteristics to model fault behavior. The study includes data based on structural and geomorphic mapping, faultkinematic analysis, DEM-based morphometry, and numerical fault-interaction modeling. In order to better understand the long- to short term behavior of such complex fault systems, I used geomorphic surfaces as strain markers and dated fluvial and alluvial surfaces using terrestrial cosmogenic nuclides (TCN, 10Be, 26Al, 36Cl) and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL). My investigation focuses on the seismically active Mosha-Fasham fault (MFF) and the seismically virtually inactive North Tehran Thrust (NTT), adjacent to the Tehran metropolitan area. Fault-kinematic data reveal an early mechanical linkage of the NTT and MFF during an earlier dextral transpressional stage, when the shortening direction was oriented northwest. This regime was superseded by Pliocene to Recent NE-oriented shortening, which caused thrusting and sinistral strike-slip faulting. In the course of this kinematic changeover, the NTT and MFF were reactivated and incorporated into a nascent transpressional duplex, which has significantly affected landscape evolution in this part of the range. Two of three distinctive features which characterize topography and relief in the study area can be directly related to their location inside the duplex array and are thus linked to interaction between eastern MFF and NTT, and between western MFF and Taleghan fault, respectively. To account for inferred inherited topography from the previous dextral-transpression regime, a new concept of tectonic landscape characterization has been used. Accordingly, I define simple landscapes as those environments, which have developed during the influence of a sustained tectonic regime. In contrast, composite landscapes contain topographic elements inherited from previous tectonic conditions that are inconsistent with the regional present-day stress field and kinematic style. Using numerical fault-interaction modeling with different tectonic boundary conditions, I calculated synoptic snapshots of artificial topography to compare it with the real topographic metrics. However, in the Alborz mountains, E-W faults are favorably oriented to accommodate the entire range of NW- to NE-directed compression. These faults show the highest total displacement which might indicate sustained faulting under changing boundary conditions. In contrast to the fault system within and at the flanks of the Alborz mountains, Quaternary deformation in the adjacent Tehran plain is characterized by oblique motion and thrust and strike-slip fault systems. In this morphotectonic province fault-propagation folding along major faults, limited strike-slip motion, and en-échelon arrays of second-order upper plate thrusts are typical. While the Tehran plain is characterized by young deformation phenomena, the majority of faulting took place in the early stages of the Quaternary and during late Pliocene time. TCN-dating, which was performed for the first time on geomorphic surfaces in the Tehran plain, revealed that the oldest two phases of alluviation (units A and B) must be older than late Pleistocene. While urban development in Tehran increasingly covers and obliterates the active fault traces, the present-day kinematic style, the vestiges of formerly undeformed Quaternary landforms, and paleo earthquake indicators from the last millennia attest to the threat that these faults and their related structures pose for the megacity.
Soil respiration is the second largest flux in the global carbon cycle, yet the underlying below-ground process, carbon dioxide (CO2) production, is not well understood because it can not be measured in the field. CO2 production has frequently been calculated from the vertical CO2 diffusive flux divergence, known as "soil-CO2 profile method". This relatively simple model requires knowledge of soil CO2 concentration profiles and soil diffusive properties. Application of the method for a tropical lowland forest soil in Panama gave inconsistent results when using diffusion coefficients (D) calculated based on relationships with soil porosity and moisture ("physically modeled" D). Our objective was to investigate whether these inconsistencies were related to (1) the applied interpolation and solution methods and/or (2) uncertainties in the physically modeled profile of D. First, we show that the calculated CO2 production strongly depends on the function used to interpolate between measured CO2 concentrations. Secondly, using an inverse analysis of the soil-CO2 profile method, we deduce which D would be required to explain the observed CO2 concentrations, assuming the model perception is valid. In the top soil, this inversely modeled D closely resembled the physically modeled D. In the deep soil, however, the inversely modeled D increased sharply while the physically modeled D did not. When imposing a constraint during the fit parameter optimization, a solution could be found where this deviation between the physically and inversely modeled D disappeared. A radon (Rn) mass balance model, in which diffusion was calculated based on the physically modeled or constrained inversely modeled D, simulated observed Rn profiles reasonably well. However, the CO2 concentrations which corresponded to the constrained inversely modeled D were too small compared to the measurements. We suggest that, in well-structured soils, a missing description of steady state CO2 exchange fluxes across water-filled pores causes the soil-CO2 profile method to fail. These fluxes are driven by the different diffusivities in inter- vs. intra-aggregate pores which create permanent CO2 gradients if separated by a "diffusive water barrier". These results corroborate other studies which have shown that the theory to treat gas diffusion as homogeneous process, a precondition for use of the soil-CO2 profile method, is inaccurate for pore networks which exhibit spatial separation between CO2 production and diffusion out of the soil.
Indonesia is one of the countries most prone to natural hazards. Complex interaction of several tectonic plates with high relative velocities leads to approximately two earthquakes with magnitude Mw>7 every year, being more than 15% of the events worldwide. Earthquakes with magnitude above 9 happen far more infrequently, but with catastrophic effects. The most severe consequences thereby arise from tsunamis triggered by these subduction-related earthquakes, as the Sumatra-Andaman event in 2004 showed. In order to enable efficient tsunami early warning, which includes the estimation of wave heights and arrival times, it is necessary to combine different types of real-time sensor data with numerical models of earthquake sources and tsunami propagation. This thesis was created as a result of the GITEWS project (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System). It is based on five research papers and manuscripts. Main project-related task was the development of a database containing realistic earthquake scenarios for the Sunda Arc. This database provides initial conditions for tsunami propagation modeling used by the simulation system at the early warning center. An accurate discretization of the subduction geometry, consisting of 25x150 subfaults was constructed based on seismic data. Green’s functions, representing the deformational response to unit dip- and strike slip at the subfaults, were computed using a layered half-space approach. Different scaling relations for earthquake dimensions and slip distribution were implemented. Another project-related task was the further development of the ‘GPS-shield’ concept. It consists of a constellation of near field GPS-receivers, which are shown to be very valuable for tsunami early warning. The major part of this thesis is related to the geophysical interpretation of GPS data. Coseismic surface displacements caused by the 2004 Sumatra earthquake are inverted for slip at the fault. The effect of different Earth layer models is tested, favoring continental structure. The possibility of splay faulting is considered and shown to be a secondary order effect in respect to tsunamigenity for this event. Tsunami models based on source inversions are compared to satellite radar altimetry observations. Postseismic GPS time series are used to test a wide parameter range of uni- and biviscous rheological models of the asthenosphere. Steady-state Maxwell rheology is shown to be incompatible with near-field GPS data, unless large afterslip, amounting to more than 10% of the coseismic moment is assumed. In contrast, transient Burgers rheology is in agreement with data without the need for large aseismic afterslip. Comparison to postseismic geoid observation by the GRACE satellites reveals that even with afterslip, the model implementing Maxwell rheology results in amplitudes being too small, and thus supports a biviscous asthenosphere. A simple approach based on the assumption of quasi-static deformation propagation is introduced and proposed for inversion of coseismic near-field GPS time series. Application of this approach to observations from the 2004 Sumatra event fails to quantitatively reconstruct the rupture propagation, since a priori conditions are not fulfilled in this case. However, synthetic tests reveal the feasibility of such an approach for fast estimation of rupturing properties.
Explaining the presence of normal faults in overall compressive settings is a challenging problem in understanding the tectonics of active mountain belts. The Himalayan-Tibetan orogenic system is an excellent setting to approach this problem because it preserves one of the most dramatic records of long-term, contemporaneous shortening and extension. Over the past decades, several studies have described extensional features, not only in the Tibetan Plateau, but also in the Himalaya. For a long time, the favored model explained the function of the Southern Tibetan detachment system, a major fault zone in the Himalaya, as a decoupling horizon between the regime of crustal shortening forming the Himalayan wedge to the south and the extensional regime of the Tibetan Plateau to the north. However, in recent years, increasing evidence has shown that N-S-trending normal faults in the Central Himalaya crosscut not only the Southern Tibetan detachment system, but also the Main Central thrust. Here, we present new structural data and geologic evidence collected within the NW Indian Himalaya and combine them with previously published seismicity data sets in order to document pervasive E-W extension accommodated along N-S-trending faults extending as far south as the footwall of the Main Central thrust. We conducted a kinematic analysis of fault striations on brittle faults, documented and mapped fault scarps in Quaternary sedimentary deposits using satellite imagery, and made field observations in the Greater Sutlej region (Spiti, Lahul, Kinnaur) and the Garhwal Himalaya. Studies of extensional features within the regionally NW- SE-trending NW Indian Himalaya provide the advantage that arc-parallel and E-W extension can be separated, in contrast to the Central Himalaya. Therefore, our observations of E-W extension in the Indian NW Himalaya are well suited to test the applicability of current tectonic models for the whole Himalaya. We favor the interpretation of E-W extension in the NW Indian Himalaya as a propagation of extension driven by collapse of the Tibetan Plateau.
This paper aims to highlight the potential of using elemental and stable isotope analyses of aquatic macrophytes in palaeolimnological studies. Potamogeton pectinatus material was collected from modem plants (n=68) and from late glacial and Holocene-aged sediments from Koucha Lake (northeastern Tibetan Plateau; 34.0 degrees N; 97.2 degrees E; 4540 m a.s.l.). It was analyzed for delta C-13(Potamogeton) (modern: -23 to 0 parts per thousand, fossil: -19 to -4 parts per thousand) and delta N-15(Potamogeton) (modern: -11.0 to +13.8 parts per thousand, fossil: -9.5 to +6.7 parts per thousand) in addition to elemental carbon and nitrogen (modem C/N-Potamogeton: 7 to 29; fossil: 13 to 68) and sulfur (fossil: 188-899 mu mol/g dry weight). Fossil data were interpreted in terms of palaeo-nutrient availability and palaeo-productivity based on the modem relationships between various proxies and certain environmental data. Productivity of Potamogeton pectinatus mats at Koucha Lake as indicated by palaeo-epsilon(Potamogeton-TIC) (i.e. the enrichment of delta C-13(Potamogeton) relative to the delta(CTIC)-C-13) was reduced during periods of high conductivity, especially between 10.3 and 7.4 cal kyr BP. Potamogeton pectinatus material from these periods was also characterized by high S-Potamogeton indicating high sulfide concentrations and anoxic conditions within the sediments. However, C/N- Potamogeton ratios and delta N-15(Potamogeton) from the lower core section were found to have been altered by decompositional processes. A pronounced shift in the aquatic productivity of Lake Koucha occurred at similar to 7.4 cal kyr BP when the hydrological conditions shifted towards an open lake system and water depth increased. At this time a strong increase in productivity led to a strong decrease in the water HCO3- concentration as inferred from the application of a epsilon-(Potamogeton-TIC)-InHCO3- transfer function. A comparison of reconstructed productivity changes from Koucha Lake with further environmental proxies suggests that primary productivity changes are probably a function of internal lake dynamics and were only indirectly triggered by climate change.
The apparent isotope enrichment factor epsilon(macrophyte) of submerged plants (epsilon(macrophyte-DIC) = delta C-13(macrophyte) - delta C-13(DIC)) is indicative of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) supply in neutral to alkaline waters and is related to variations in aquatic productivity (Papadimitriou et al. in Limnol Oceanogr 50:1084-1095, 2005). This paper aims to evaluate the usage of epsilon(macrophyte) inferred from isotopic analyses of submerged plant fossils in addition to analyses of lake carbonate as a palaeolimnological proxy for former HCO3 (-) concentrations. Stable carbon isotopic analysis of modern Potamogeton pectinatus leaves and its host water DIC from the Tibetan Plateau and Central Yakutia (Russia) yielded values between -23.3 and +0.4aEuro degrees and between +14.0 and +6.5aEuro degrees, respectively. Values of epsilon (Potamogeton-DIC) (range -15.4 to +1.1aEuro degrees) from these lakes are significantly correlated with host water HCO3 (-) concentration (range 78-2,200 mg/l) (r = -0.86; P < 0.001), thus allowing for the development of a transfer function. Palaeo-epsilon (Potamogeton-ostracods) values from Luanhaizi Lake on the NE Tibetan Plateau, as inferred from the stable carbon isotope measurement of fossil Potamogeton pectinatus seeds (range -24 to +2.8aEuro degrees) and ostracods (range -7.8 to +7.5%) range between -14.8 and 1.6aEuro degrees. Phases of assumed disequilibrium between delta C-13(DIC) and delta C-13(ostracods) known to occur in charophyte swards (as indicated by the deposition of charophyte fossils) were excluded from the analysis of palaeo-epsilon. The application of the epsilon (Potamogeton-DIC)-HCO3 (-) transfer function yielded a median palaeo-HCO3 (-) -concentration of 290 mg/l. Variations in the dissolved organic carbon supply compare well with aquatic plant productivity changes and lake level variability as inferred from a multiproxy study of the same record including analyses of plant macrofossils, ostracods, carbonate and organic content.
Aim: Fossil pollen spectra from lake sediments on the Tibetan Plateau have been used for qualitative climate reconstruction, but no modern pollen-climate calibration set based on lake sediments is available to infer past climate quantitatively. This study aims to develop such a dataset and apply it to fossil data. Location: The Tibetan Plateau, between 30 and 40 degrees N and 87 and 103 degrees E. Methods: We collected surface sediments from 112 lakes and analysed them palynologically. The lakes span a wide range of mean annual precipitation (P-ann; 31-1022 mm), mean annual temperature (T-ann; -6.5 to 1 degrees C), and mean July temperature (T-July; 2.6-19.7 degrees C). Redundancy analysis showed that the modern pollen spectra are characteristic of their respective vegetation types and local climate. Transfer functions for P-ann, T-ann and T-July were developed with weighted averaging partial least squares. Model performance was assessed by leave-one-out cross-validation. Results: The root mean square errors of prediction (RMSEP) were 104 mm (P-ann), 1.18 degrees C (T-ann) and 1.17 degrees C (T-July). The RMSEPs, when expressed as percentages of the gradient sampled, were 10.6% (P-ann), 15.7% (T-ann) and 11.9% (T-July). These low values indicate the good performance of our models. An application of the models to fossil pollen spectra covering the last c. 50 kyr yielded realistic results for Luanhaizi Lake in the Qilian Mountains on the north-eastern Tibetan Plateau (modern P-ann 480 mm; T-ann-1 degrees C). T-ann and P-ann values similar to present ones were reconstructed for late Marine Isotope Stage 3, with minimum values for the Last Glacial Maximum (c. 300 mm and 2 degrees C below present), and maximum values for the early Holocene (c. 70 mm and 0.5 degrees C greater than present). Main conclusions: The modern pollen-climate calibration set will potentially be useful for quantitative climate reconstructions from lake-sediment pollen spectra from the Tibetan Plateau, an area of considerable climatic and biogeographical importance.
Aim: Atmospheric CO2 concentrations depend, in part, on the amount of biomass locked up in terrestrial vegetation. Information on the causes of a broad-scale vegetation transition and associated loss of biomass is thus of critical interest for understanding global palaeoclimatic changes. Pollen records from the north-eastern Tibet-Qinghai Plateau reveal a dramatic and extensive forest decline beginning c. 6000 cal. yr bp. The aim of this study is to elucidate the causes of this regional-scale change from high-biomass forest to low-biomass steppe on the Tibet-Qinghai Plateau during the second half of the Holocene. Location: Our study focuses on the north-eastern Tibet-Qinghai Plateau. Stratigraphical data used are from Qinghai Lake (3200 m a.s.l., 36 degrees 32'-37 degrees 15' N, 99 degrees 36'-100 degrees 47' E). Methods: We apply a modern pollen-precipitation transfer function from the eastern and north-eastern Tibet-Qinghai Plateau to fossil pollen spectra from Qinghai Lake to reconstruct annual precipitation changes during the Holocene. The reconstructions are compared to a stable oxygen-isotope record from the same sediment core and to results from two transient climate model simulations. Results: The pollen-based precipitation reconstruction covering the Holocene parallels moisture changes inferred from the stable oxygen-isotope record. Furthermore, these results are in close agreement with simulated model-based past annual precipitation changes. Main conclusions: In the light of these data and the model results, we conclude that it is not necessary to attribute the broad-scale forest decline to human activity. Climate change as a result of changes in the intensity of the East Asian Summer Monsoon in the mid-Holocene is the most parsimonious explanation for the widespread forest decline on the Tibet-Qinghai Plateau. Moreover, climate feedback from a reduced forest cover accentuates increasingly drier conditions in the area, indicating complex vegetation-climate interactions during this major ecological change.
Pollen taxa of known indicator value are of great potential in the qualitative interpretation of pollen diagrams. Here we apply several numerical approaches to a lake-sediment based pollen data-set from the eastern and central Tibetan Plateau (112 samples) to assess the indicator value of Tibetan pollen taxa for modem vegetation types and for modern climate. Results from Multi-Response Permutation Procedures indicate that the differences between groups of pollen spectra originating from the same vegetation type (temperate desert, temperate steppe, alpine desert, alpine steppe, high-alpine meadow, subalpine shrub, and patchy forest) are statistically significant. Indicator Species Analyses identify several indicator taxa for most vegetation types. Multivariate regression tree analysis indicates that about 390 mm of annual precipitation is the most critical threshold for the modern pollen spectra. This roughly separates desert and steppe vegetation from high-alpine meadow, subalpine shrub, and patchy forest vegetation. A strong pollen-climate relationship on the Tibetan Plateau is confirmed by the large number of statistically significant pollen taxa-climate (annual precipitation or/and annual temperature) relationships as evaluated by statistical response- modelling, involving generalised linear models.