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This article looks at Émile Zola’s novel cycle Les Rougon-Macquart and argues that it describes its subject, the Second Empire, as a warming climate tending toward climate catastrophe. Zola’s affinity to the notion of climate is shown to be linked to his poetic employment of the concept of ‘milieu’, inspired by Hippolyte Taine. Close readings of selected passages from the Rougon-Macquart are used to work out the climatic difference between ‘the old’ and ‘the new Paris’, and the process of warming that characterises the Second Empire. Octave Mouret’s department store holds a special place in the article, as it is analysed through what the article suggests calling a ‘meteorotopos’: a location of intensified climatic conditions that accounts for an increased interaction between human and non-human actors. The department store is also one of the many sites in the novel cycle that locally prefigure the ‘global’ climate catastrophe of Paris burning, in which the Second Empire perishes.
Im Landschaftszustand und in der Landschaftsentwicklung kommen funktionale Beziehungen zwischen dem naturbedingten Energie-, Wasser- und Stoffhaushalt einerseits und den Auswirkungen der Landnutzung andererseits zum Ausdruck. Gegenwärtig verändert der globale Anstieg der bodennahen Temperaturen vielerorts den landschaftlichen Energie-, Wasser- und Stoffhaushalt, wobei besonders in Trockengebieten zu erwarten ist, dass dieser Trend in Verbindung mit einer unangepassten Landnutzung das Regenerationsvermögen der Vegetation einschränkt und zur Zerstörung der Bodendecke führt. Für die Mongolei und für benachbarte Gebiete Asiens sind in Szenarien zur globalen Erwärmung hohe Werte des Temperaturanstiegs prognostiziert worden. Eine globale Einschätzung der anthropogen induzierten Bodendegradation hat diese Region als stark oder extrem stark betroffen eingestuft. Vor diesem Hintergrund wurde im Uvs-Nuur-Becken, das im Nordwesten der Mongolei und damit in einer der trockensten Regionen des Landes gelegen ist, untersucht, wie sich der globale Temperaturanstieg auf der lokalen und regionalen Ebene widerspiegelt und wie der Landschaftshaushalt dabei verändert wird. Die Auswirkungen des sommerlichen Witterungsverlaufes auf den Landschaftszustand sind 1997 bis 1999 an einem Transsekt erfasst worden, das sich zwischen dem Kharkhiraa-Gebirge am Westrand des Beckens und dem See Uvs Nuur im Beckeninneren von den Polsterfluren und Matten der alpinen Stufe über die Gebirgswaldsteppe, die Trockensteppe bis zur Halbwüste erstreckt. An neun Messpunkten wurden witterungsklimatische Daten in Verbindung mit Merkmalen der Vegetation, des Bodens und der Bodenfeuchte aufgenommen. Die im Sommer 1998 gewonnenen Messwerte wurden mit Hilfe einer Clusteranalyse gebündelt und verdichtet. Auf dieser Grundlage konnten landschaftliche Zustandsformen inhaltlich gekennzeichnet, zeitlich eingeordnet und durch Zeit-Verhaltens-Modelle (Stacks) abgebildet werden. Aus den Zeit-Verhaltens-Modellen wird ersichtlich, dass man Zustandsformen, in denen die Hitze und die Trockenheit des Sommers 1998 besonders stark zum Ausdruck kommen, an allen Messpunkten beobachten kann, nimmt man die Station auf dem fast 3.000 m hohen Gipfel des Khukh Uul sowie die grundwasserbeeinflusste Station in unmittelbarer Seenähe aus. In ihrer extremen Form sind Trockenperioden jedoch nur im Beckeninneren und am Fuß der Randgebirge, also in der Halbwüste, in der Trockensteppe und in der Wiesensteppe aufgetreten. Im Bergwald sowie im Bereich der alpinen Matten und Polsterfluren fehlen sie. Am stärksten sind die grundwasserfreien Bereiche der Halbwüste von der Hitze und Niederschlagsarmut des Sommers 1998 betroffen. An vier Fünfteln der Tage des Beobachtungszeitraumes herrscht an diesem Messpunkt extreme Trockenheit. Es fällt entweder gar kein Niederschlag oder nur so wenig, dass der seit dem Frühjahr erschöpfte Bodenwasservorrat nicht aufgefüllt wird. Das Verhältnis zwischen Niederschlag und potenzieller Verdunstung liegt hier bei 1:12. In der Halbwüste zeichnet sich eine fortschreitende Desertifikation ab, zumal hier eine nichtangepasste Weidenutzung dominiert, in der Ziegen eine immer größere Rolle spielen. Dies gilt insbesondere für Bereiche in Siedlungsnähe. Örtlich ist auch der Bestand der Trockensteppe gefährdet, die sich an die Halbwüste zum Beckenrand hin anschließt. Hier ist nicht nur die Viehdichte am höchsten, sondern hier werden auch die meisten unbefestigten Fahrwege wild angelegt und die Bodendecke damit zerstört. Dies kann im Endeffekt zu einem Übergreifen von Prozessen der Desertifikation führen. Aus methodischer Sicht zeigt sich, dass die Kennzeichnung landschaftlicher Zustandsformen durch Zeit-Verhaltens-Modelle die Ermittlung der Auswirkungen von Witterung und Klima auf den Landschaftszustand erleichtert, da sie deren Aussage konzentriert. Zur Interpretation der Ergebnisse ist jedoch ein Rückgriff auf die beschreibende Darstellung der Messwerte notwendig. Die im westlichen Uvs-Nuur-Becken und seinen Randgebirgen angewandte Verfahrensweise ermöglicht es, globale Aussagen zur globalen Erwärmung der Kontinente regional oder lokal zu überprüfen und zu untersetzen."
Deserts are a major source of loess and may undergo substantial wind-erosion as evidenced by yardang fields, deflation pans, and wind-scoured bedrock landscapes. However, there are few quantitative estimates of bedrock removal by wind abrasion and deflation. Here, we report wind-erosion rates in the western Qaidam Basin in central China based on measurements of cosmogenic Be-10 in exhumed Miocene sedimentary bedrock. Sedimentary bedrock erosion rates range from 0.05 to 0.4 mm/yr, although the majority of measurements cluster at 0.125 +/- 0.05 mm/yr. These results, combined with previous work, indicate that strong winds, hyper-aridity, exposure of friable Neogene strata, and ongoing rock deformation and uplift in the western Qaidam Basin have created an environment where wind, instead of water, is the dominant agent of erosion and sediment transport. Its geographic location (upwind) combined with volumetric estimates suggest that the Qaidam Basin is a major source (up to 50%) of dust to the Chinese Loess Plateau to the east. The cosmogenically derived wind erosion rates are within the range of erosion rates determined from glacial and fluvial dominated landscapes worldwide, exemplifying the effectiveness of wind to erode and transport significant quantities of bedrock.
Wie Klimaschutz finanzieren?
(2012)
Zur Finanzierung von Klimaschutz müssen öffentliche Mittel gezielt
eingesetzt werden. Dies beinhaltet auch die Rahmenbedingungen für
private Finanzströme signifikant zu verbessern. Anhand einer Problemanalyse
bestimmen die Autoren Eckdaten für diese Hebelwirkung.
Öffentliche Anschubfinanzierung kann somit die Grundlage für private
Investitionen sein. Dies wird exemplarisch an der Internationalen
Klimaschutzinitiative des Bundesumweltministeriums diskutiert.
There is growing recognition of strong periglacial control on bedrock erosion in mountain landscapes, including the shaping of low-relief surfaces at high elevations (summit flats). But, as yet, the hypothesis that frost action was crucial to the assumed Late Cenozoic rise in erosion rates remains compelling and untested. Here we present a landscape evolution model incorporating two key periglacial processes - regolith production via frost cracking and sediment transport via frost creep - which together are harnessed to variations in temperature and the evolving thickness of sediment cover. Our computational experiments time-integrate the contribution of frost action to shaping mountain topography over million-year timescales, with the primary and highly reproducible outcome being the development of flattish or gently convex summit flats. A simple scaling of temperature to marine delta O-18 records spanning the past 14 Myr indicates that the highest summit flats in mid-to high-latitude mountains may have formed via frost action prior to the Quaternary. We suggest that deep cooling in the Quaternary accelerated mechanical weathering globally by significantly expanding the area subject to frost. Further, the inclusion of subglacial erosion alongside periglacial processes in our computational experiments points to alpine glaciers increasing the long-term efficiency of frost-driven erosion by steepening hillslopes.
Intra-continental mountain belts typically form as a result of tectonic forces associated with distant plate collisions. In general, each mountain belt has a distinctive morphology and orogenic evolution that is highly dependent on the unique distribution and geometries of inherited structures and other crustal weaknesses. In this thesis, I have investigated the complex and irregular Cenozoic orogenic evolution of the Central Kyrgyz Tien Shan in Central Asia, which is presently one of the most active intra-continental mountain belts in the world. This work involved combining a broad array of datasets, including thermochronologic, magnetostratigraphic, sediment provenance and stable isotope data, to identify and date various changes in tectonic deformation, climate and surface processes. Many of these changes are linked and can ultimately be related to regional-scale processes that altered the orogenic evolution of the Central Kyrgyz Tien Shan. The Central Kyrgyz Tien Shan contains a sub-parallel series of structures that were reactivated in the late Cenozoic in response to the tectonic forces associated with the distant India-Eurasia collision. Over time, slip on the various reactivated structures created the succession of mountain ranges and intermontane basins which characterises the modern morphology of the region. In this thesis, new quantitative constraints on the exhumation histories of several mountain ranges have been obtained by using low temperature thermochronological data from 95 samples (zircon (U-Th)/He, apatite fission track and (U-Th)/He). Time-temperature histories derived by modelling the thermochronologic data of individual samples identify at least two stages of Cenozoic cooling in most of the region’s mountain ranges: (1) initially low cooling rates (<1°C/Myr) during the tectonic quiescent period and (2) increased cooling in the late Cenozoic, which occurred diachronously and with variable magnitude in different ranges. This second cooling stage is interpreted to represent increased erosion caused by active deformation, and in many of the sampled mountain ranges, provides the first available constraints on the timing of late Cenozoic deformation. New constraints on the timing of deformation have also been derived from the sedimentary record of intermontane basins. In the intermontane Issyk Kul basin, new magnetostratigraphic data from two sedimentary sections suggests that deposition of the first Cenozoic syn-tectonic sediments commenced at ~26 Ma. Zircon U-Pb provenance data, paleocurrent and conglomerate clast analysis reveals that these sediments were sourced from the Terskey Range to the south of the basin, suggesting that the onset of the late Cenozoic deformation occurred >26 Ma in that particular range. Elsewhere, growth strata relationships are used to identify syn-tecotnic deposition and constrain the timing of nearby deformation. Collectively, these new constraints obtained from thermochronologic and sedimentary data have allowed me to infer the spatiotemporal distribution of deformation in a transect through the Central Kyrgyz Tien Shan, and determine the order in which mountain ranges started deforming. These data suggest that deformation began in a few widely-spaced mountain ranges in the late Oligocene and early Miocene. Typically, these earlier mountain ranges are bounded on at least one side by a reactivated structure, which probably corresponds to the frictionally weakest and most suitably orientated inherited structures for accommodating the roughly north-south directed horizontal crustal shortening of the late Cenozoic. Moreover, tectonically-induced rock uplift in the Terskey Range, following the reactivation of the bounding structure before 26 Ma, likely caused significant surface uplift across the range, which in turn lead to enhanced orographic precipitation. These wetter conditions have been inferred from stable isotope data collected in the two magnetostratigraphically-dated sections in the Issyk Kul basin. Subsequently, in the late Miocene (~12‒5 Ma), more mountain ranges and inherited structures appear to have started actively deforming. Importantly, the onset of deformation at these locations in the late Miocene coincides with an increase in exhumation of ranges that had started deforming earlier in the late Oligocene‒early Miocene. Based on this observation, I have suggested that there must have been an overall increase in the rate of horizontal crustal shortening across the Central Kyrgyz Tien Shan, which likely relates to regional tectonic changes that affected much of Central Asia. Many of the mountain ranges that started deforming in the late Miocene were associated with out-of-sequence tectonic reactivation and initiation, which lead to the partitioning of larger intermontane basins. Moreover, within most of the intermontane basins in the Central Kyrgyz Tien Shan, this inferred late Miocene increase in horizontal crustal shortening occurs roughly at the same time as an increase in sedimentation rates and a significant change sediment composition. Therefore, I have suggested that the overall magnitude of deformational processes increased in the late Miocene, promoting more flexural subsidence in the intermontane basins of the Central Kyrgyz Tien Shan.
The role of feedback between erosional unloading and tectonics controlling the development of the Himalaya is a matter of current debate. The distribution of precipitation is thought to control surface erosion, which in turn results in tectonic exhumation as an isostatic compensation process. Alternatively, subsurface structures can have significant influence in the evolution of this actively growing orogen. Along the southern Himalayan front new 40Ar/39Ar white mica and apatite fission track (AFT) thermochronologic data provide the opportunity to determine the history of rock-uplift and exhumation paths along an approximately 120-km-wide NE-SW transect spanning the greater Sutlej region of the northwest Himalaya, India. 40Ar/39Ar data indicate, consistent with earlier studies that first the High Himalayan Crystalline, and subsequently the Lesser Himalayan Crystalline nappes were exhumed rapidly during Miocene time, while the deformation front propagated to the south. In contrast, new AFT data delineate synchronous exhumation of an elliptically shaped, NE-SW-oriented ~80 x 40 km region spanning both crystalline nappes during Pliocene-Quaternary time. The AFT ages correlate with elevation, but show within the resolution of the method no spatial relationship to preexisting major tectonic structures, such as the Main Central Thrust or the Southern Tibetan Fault System. Assuming constant exhumation rates and geothermal gradient, the rocks of two age vs. elevation transects were exhumed at ~1.4 ±0.2 and ~1.1 ±0.4 mm/a with an average cooling rate of ~50-60 °C/Ma during Pliocene-Quaternary time. The locus of pronounced exhumation defined by the AFT data coincides with a region of enhanced precipitation, high discharge, and sediment flux rates under present conditions. We therefore hypothesize that the distribution of AFT cooling ages might reflect the efficiency of surface processes and fluvial erosion, and thus demonstrate the influence of erosion in localizing rock-uplift and exhumation along southern Himalayan front, rather than encompassing the entire orogen.Despite a possible feedback between erosion and exhumation along the southern Himalayan front, we observe tectonically driven, crustal exhumation within the arid region behind the orographic barrier of the High Himalaya, which might be related to and driven by internal plateau forces. Several metamorphic-igneous gneiss dome complexes have been exhumed between the High Himalaya to the south and Indus-Tsangpo suture zone to the north since the onset of Indian-Eurasian collision ~50 Ma ago. Although the overall tectonic setting is characterized by convergence the exhumation of these domes is accommodated by extensional fault systems.Along the Indian-Tibetan border the poorly described Leo Pargil metamorphic-igneous gneiss dome (31-34°N/77-78°E) is located within the Tethyan Himalaya. New field mapping, structural, and geochronologic data document that the western flank of the Leo Pargil dome was formed by extension along temporally linked normal fault systems. Motion on a major detachment system, referred to as the Leo Pargil detachment zone (LPDZ) has led to the juxtaposition of low-grade metamorphic, sedimentary rocks in the hanging wall and high-grade metamorphic gneisses in the footwall. However, the distribution of new 40Ar/39Ar white mica data indicate a regional cooling event during middle Miocene time. New apatite fission track (AFT) data demonstrate that subsequently more of the footwall was extruded along the LPDZ in a brittle stage between 10 and 2 Ma with a minimum displacement of ~9 km. Additionally, AFT-data indicate a regional accelerated cooling and exhumation episode starting at ~4 Ma. Thus, tectonic processes can affect the entire orogenic system, while potential feedbacks between erosion and tectonics appear to be limited to the windward sides of an orogenic systems.
Nearly 13,000 years ago, the warming trend into the Holocene was sharply interrupted by a reversal to near glacial conditions. Climatic causes and ecological consequences of the Younger Dryas (YD) have been extensively studied, however proxy archives from the Mediterranean basin capturing this period are scarce and do not provide annual resolution. Here, we report a hydroclimatic reconstruction from stable isotopes (delta O-18, delta C-13) in subfossil pines from southern France. Growing before and during the transition period into the YD (12 900-12 600 cal BP), the trees provide an annually resolved, continuous sequence of atmospheric change. Isotopic signature of tree sourcewater (delta O-18(sw)) and estimates of relative air humidity were reconstructed as a proxy for variations in air mass origin and precipitation regime. We find a distinct increase in inter-annual variability of sourcewater isotopes (delta O-18(sw)), with three major downturn phases of increasing magnitude beginning at 12 740 cal BP. The observed variation most likely results from an amplified intensity of North Atlantic (low delta O-18(sw)) versus Mediterranean (high delta O-18(sw)) precipitation. This marked pattern of climate variability is not seen in records from higher latitudes and is likely a consequence of atmospheric circulation oscillations at the margin of the southward moving polar front.
While the intergovernmental climate regime increasingly recognizes the role of non-state actors in achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement (PA), the normative linkages between the intergovernmental climate regime and the non-state dominated 'transnational partnership governance' remain vague and tentative. A formalized engagement of the intergovernmental climate regime with transnational partnerships can increase the effectiveness of partnerships in delivering on climate mitigation and adaptation, thereby complementing rather than replacing government action. The proposed active engagement with partnerships would include (i) collecting and analyzing information to develop and prioritize areas for transnational and partnership engagement; (ii) defining minimum criteria and procedural requirements to be listed on an enhanced Non-state Actor Zone for Climate Action platform; (iii) actively supporting strategic initiatives; (iv) facilitating market or non-market finance as part of Article 6 PA; and (v) evaluating the effectiveness of partnerships in the context of the enhanced transparency framework (Article 13 PA) and the global stocktake (Article 14 PA). The UNFCCC Secretariat could facilitate engagement and problem solving by actively orchestrating transnational partnerships. Constructing effective implementation partnerships, recording their mitigation and adaptation goals, and holding them accountable may help to move climate talks from rhetoric to action.
Steppe vegetation represents a key marker of past Asian aridification and is associated with monsoonal intensification. Little is, however, known about the origin of this pre-Oligocene vegetation, its specific composition and how it changed over time and responded to climatic variations. Here, we describe the morphological characters of Ephedraceae pollen in Eocene strata of the Xining Basin and compare the pollen composition with the palynological composition of Late Cretaceous and Paleocene deposits of the Xining Basin and the Quaternary deposits of the Qaidam Basin. We find that the Late Cretaceous steppe was dominated by Gnetaceaepollenites; in the transition from the Cretaceous to the Paleocene, Gnetaceaepollenites became extinct and Ephedripites subgenus Ephedripites dominated the flora with rare occurrences of Ephedripites subgen. Distachyapites; the middle to late Eocene presents a strong increase of Ephedripites subgen. Distachyapites; and the Quaternary/Recent is marked by a significantly lower diversity of Ephedraceae (and Nitrariaceae) compared to the Eocene. In the modern landscape of China, only a fraction of the Paleogene species diversity of Ephedraceae remains and we propose that these alterations in Ephedreaceae composition occurred in response to the climatic changes at least since the Eocene. In particular, the strong Eocene monsoons that enhanced the continental aridification may have played an important role in the evolution of Ephedripites subgen. Distachyapites triggering an evolutionary shift to wind-pollination in this group. Conceivably, the Ephedraceae/Nitrariaceae dominated steppe ended during the Eocene/Oligocene climatic cooling and aridification, which favoured other plant taxa.
This dissertation investigates the impact of the economic and fiscal crisis starting in 2008 on EU climate policy-making. While the overall number of adopted greenhouse gas emission reduction policies declined in the crisis aftermath, EU lawmakers decided to introduce new or tighten existing regulations in some important policy domains. Existing knowledge about the crisis impact on EU legislative decision-making cannot explain these inconsistencies. In response, this study develops an actor-centred conceptual framework based on rational choice institutionalism that provides a micro-level link to explain how economic crises translate into altered policy-making patterns. The core theoretical argument draws on redistributive conflicts, arguing that tensions between ‘beneficiaries’ and ‘losers’ of a regulatory initiative intensify during economic crises and spill over to the policy domain. To test this hypothesis and using social network analysis, this study analyses policy processes in three case studies: The introduction of carbon dioxide emission limits for passenger cars, the expansion of the EU Emissions Trading System to aviation, and the introduction of a regulatory framework for biofuels. The key finding is that an economic shock causes EU policy domains to polarise politically, resulting in intensified conflict and more difficult decision-making. The results also show that this process of political polarisation roots in the industry that is the subject of the regulation, and that intergovernmental bargaining among member states becomes more important, but also more difficult in times of crisis.
Organic matter deposited in ancient, ice-rich permafrost sediments is vulnerable to climate change and may contribute to the future release of greenhouse gases; it is thus important to get a better characterization of the plant organic matter within such sediments. From a Late Quaternary permafrost sediment core from the Buor Khaya Peninsula, we analysed plant-derived sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) to identify the taxonomic composition of plant organic matter, and undertook palynological analysis to assess the environmental conditions during deposition. Using sedaDNA, we identified 154 taxa and from pollen and non-pollen palynomorphs we identified 83 taxa. In the deposits dated between 54 and 51 kyr BP, sedaDNA records a diverse low-centred polygon plant community including recurring aquatic pond vegetation while from the pollen record we infer terrestrial open-land vegetation with relatively dry environmental conditions at a regional scale. A fluctuating dominance of either terrestrial or swamp and aquatic taxa in both proxies allowed the local hydrological development of the polygon to be traced. In deposits dated between 11.4 and 9.7 kyr BP (13.4-11.1 cal kyr BP), sedaDNA shows a taxonomic turnover to moist shrub tundra and a lower taxonomic richness compared to the older samples. Pollen also records a shrub tundra community, mostly seen as changes in relative proportions of the most dominant taxa, while a decrease in taxonomic richness was less pronounced compared to sedaDNA. Our results show the advantages of using sedaDNA in combination with palynological analyses when macrofossils are rarely preserved. The high resolution of the sedaDNA record provides a detailed picture of the taxonomic composition of plant-derived organic matter throughout the core, and palynological analyses prove valuable by allowing for inferences of regional environmental conditions.
The Limpopo Basin in southern Africa is prone to droughts which affect the livelihood of millions of people in South Africa, Botswana, Zimbabwe and Mozambique. Seasonal drought early warning is thus vital for the whole region. In this study, the predictability of hydrological droughts during the main runoff period from December to May is assessed using statistical approaches. Three methods (multiple linear models, artificial neural networks, random forest regression trees) are compared in terms of their ability to forecast streamflow with up to 12 months of lead time. The following four main findings result from the study.
1. There are stations in the basin at which standardised streamflow is predictable with lead times up to 12 months. The results show high inter-station differences of forecast skill but reach a coefficient of determination as high as 0.73 (cross validated).
2. A large range of potential predictors is considered in this study, comprising well-established climate indices, customised teleconnection indices derived from sea surface temperatures and antecedent streamflow as a proxy of catchment conditions. El Nino and customised indices, representing sea surface temperature in the Atlantic and Indian oceans, prove to be important teleconnection predictors for the region. Antecedent streamflow is a strong predictor in small catchments (with median 42% explained variance), whereas teleconnections exert a stronger influence in large catchments.
3. Multiple linear models show the best forecast skill in this study and the greatest robustness compared to artificial neural networks and random forest regression trees, despite their capabilities to represent nonlinear relationships.
4. Employed in early warning, the models can be used to forecast a specific drought level. Even if the coefficient of determination is low, the forecast models have a skill better than a climatological forecast, which is shown by analysis of receiver operating characteristics (ROCs). Seasonal statistical forecasts in the Limpopo show promising results, and thus it is recommended to employ them as complementary to existing forecasts in order to strengthen preparedness for droughts.
The onset of modern central Asian atmospheric circulation is traditionally linked to the interplay of surface uplift of the Mongolian and Tibetan-Himalayan orogens, retreat of the Paratethys sea from central Asia and Cenozoic global cooling. Although the role of these players has not yet been unravelled, the vast dust deposits of central China support the presence of arid conditions and modern atmospheric pathways for the last 25 million years (Myr). Here, we present provenance data from older (42-33 Myr) dust deposits, at a time when the Tibetan Plateau was less developed, the Paratethys sea still present in central Asia and atmospheric pCO(2) much higher. Our results show that dust sources and near-surface atmospheric circulation have changed little since at least 42 Myr. Our findings indicate that the locus of central Asian high pressures and concurrent aridity is a resilient feature only modulated by mountain building, global cooling and sea retreat.
Over the last decades, the Arctic regions of the earth have warmed at a rate 2–3 times faster than the global average– a phenomenon called Arctic Amplification. A complex, non-linear interplay of physical processes and unique pecularities in the Arctic climate system is responsible for this, but the relative role of individual processes remains to be debated. This thesis focuses on the climate change and related processes on Svalbard, an archipelago in the North Atlantic sector of the Arctic, which is shown to be a "hotspot" for the amplified recent warming during winter. In this highly dynamical region, both oceanic and atmospheric large-scale transports of heat and moisture interfere with spatially inhomogenous surface conditions, and the corresponding energy exchange strongly shapes the atmospheric boundary layer. In the first part, Pan-Svalbard gradients in the surface air temperature (SAT) and sea ice extent (SIE) in the fjords are quantified and characterized. This analysis is based on observational data from meteorological stations, operational sea ice charts, and hydrographic observations from the adjacent ocean, which cover the 1980–2016 period. It is revealed that typical estimates of SIE during late winter range from 40–50% (80–90%) in the western (eastern) parts of Svalbard. However, strong SAT warming during winter of the order of 2–3K per decade dictates excessive ice loss, leaving fjords in the western parts essentially ice-free in recent winters. It is further demostrated that warm water currents on the west coast of Svalbard, as well as meridional winds contribute to regional differences in the SIE evolution. In particular, the proximity to warm water masses of the West Spitsbergen Current can explain 20–37% of SIE variability in fjords on west Svalbard, while meridional winds and associated ice drift may regionally explain 20–50% of SIE variability in the north and northeast. Strong SAT warming has overruled these impacts in recent years, though.
In the next part of the analysis, the contribution of large-scale atmospheric circulation changes to the Svalbard temperature development over the last 20 years is investigated. A study employing kinematic air-back trajectories for Ny-Ålesund reveals a shift in the source regions of lower-troposheric air over time for both the winter and the summer season. In winter, air in the recent decade is more often of lower-latitude Atlantic origin, and less frequent of Arctic origin. This affects heat- and moisture advection towards Svalbard, potentially manipulating clouds and longwave downward radiation in that region. A closer investigation indicates that this shift during winter is associated with a strengthened Ural blocking high and Icelandic low, and contributes about 25% to the observed winter warming on Svalbard over the last 20 years. Conversely, circulation changes during summer include a strengthened Greenland blocking high which leads to more frequent cold air advection from the central Arctic towards Svalbard, and less frequent air mass origins in the lower latitudes of the North Atlantic. Hence, circulation changes during winter are shown to have an amplifying effect on the recent warming on Svalbard, while summer circulation changes tend to mask warming.
An observational case study using upper air soundings from the AWIPEV research station in Ny-Ålesund during May–June 2017 underlines that such circulation changes during summer are associated with tropospheric anomalies in temperature, humidity and boundary layer height.
In the last part of the analysis, the regional representativeness of the above described changes around Svalbard for the broader Arctic is investigated. Therefore, the terms in the diagnostic temperature equation in the Arctic-wide lower troposphere are examined for the Era-Interim atmospheric reanalysis product. Significant positive trends in diabatic heating rates, consistent with latent heat transfer to the atmosphere over regions of increasing ice melt, are found for all seasons over the Barents/Kara Seas, and in individual months in the vicinity of Svalbard. The above introduced warm (cold) advection trends during winter (summer) on Svalbard are successfully reproduced. Regarding winter, they are regionally confined to the Barents Sea and Fram Strait, between 70°–80°N, resembling a unique feature in the whole Arctic. Summer cold advection trends are confined to the area between eastern Greenland and Franz Josef Land, enclosing Svalbard.
Projected changes in compound flood hazard from riverine and coastal floods in northwestern Europe
(2020)
Compound flooding in coastal regions, that is, the simultaneous or successive occurrence of high sea levels and high river flows, is expected to increase in a warmer world. To date, however, there is no robust evidence on projected changes in compound flooding for northwestern Europe. We combine projected storm surges and river floods with probabilistic, localized relative sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios to assess the future compound flood hazard over northwestern coastal Europe in the high (RCP8.5) emission scenario. We use high-resolution, dynamically downscaled regional climate models (RCM) to drive a storm surge model and a hydrological model, and analyze the joint occurrence of high coastal water levels and associated river peaks in a multivariate copula-based approach. The RCM-forced multimodel mean reasonably represents the observed spatial pattern of the dependence strength between annual maxima surge and peak river discharge, although substantial discrepancies exist between observed and simulated dependence strength. All models overestimate the dependence strength, possibly due to limitations in model parameterizations. This bias affects compound flood hazard estimates and requires further investigation. While our results suggest decreasing compound flood hazard over the majority of sites by 2050s (2040-2069) compared to the reference period (1985-2005), an increase in projected compound flood hazard is limited to around 34% of the sites. Further, we show the substantial role of SLR, a driver of compound floods, which has frequently been neglected. Our findings highlight the need to be aware of the limitations of the current generation of Earth system models in simulating coastal compound floods.
Interactions and feedbacks between tectonics, climate, and upper plate architecture control basin geometry, relief, and depositional systems. The Andes is part of a longlived continental margin characterized by multiple tectonic cycles which have strongly modified the Andean upper plate architecture. In the Andean retroarc, spatiotemporal variations in the structure of the upper plate and tectonic regimes have resulted in marked along-strike variations in basin geometry, stratigraphy, deformational style, and mountain belt morphology. These along-strike variations include high-elevation plateaus (Altiplano and Puna) associated with a thin-skin fold-and-thrust-belt and thick-skin deformation in broken foreland basins such as the Santa Barbara system and the Sierras Pampeanas. At the confluence of the Puna Plateau, the Santa Barbara system and the Sierras Pampeanas, major along-strike changes in upper plate architecture, mountain belt morphology, basement exhumation, and deformation style can be recognized. I have used a source to sink approach to unravel the spatiotemporal tectonic evolution of the Andean retroarc between 26 and 28°S. I obtained a large low-temperature thermochronology data set from basement units which includes apatite fission track, apatite U-Th-Sm/He, and zircon U-Th/He (ZHe) cooling ages. Stratigraphic descriptions of Miocene units were temporally constrained by U-Pb LA-ICP-MS zircon ages from interbedded pyroclastic material.
Modeled ZHe ages suggest that the basement of the study area was exhumed during the Famatinian orogeny (550-450 Ma), followed by a period of relative tectonic quiescence during the Paleozoic and the Triassic. The basement experienced horst exhumation during the Cretaceous development of the Salta rift. After initial exhumation, deposition of thick Cretaceous syn-rift strata caused reheating of several basement blocks within the Santa Barbara system. During the Eocene-Oligocene, the Andean compressional setting was responsible for the exhumation of several disconnected basement blocks. These exhumed blocks were separated by areas of low relief, in which humid climate and low erosion rates facilitated the development of etchplains on the crystalline basement. The exhumed basement blocks formed an Eocene to Oligocene broken foreland basin in the back-bulge depozone of the Andean foreland. During the Early Miocene, foreland basin strata filled up the preexisting Paleogene topography. The basement blocks in lower relief positions were reheated; associated geothermal gradients were higher than 25°C/km. Miocene volcanism was responsible for lateral variations on the amount of reheating along the Campo-Arenal basin. Around 12 Ma, a new deformational phase modified the drainage network and fragmented the lacustrine system. As deformation and rock uplift continued, the easily eroded sedimentary cover was efficiently removed and reworked by an ephemeral fluvial system, preventing the development of significant relief. After ~6 Ma, the low erodibility of the basement blocks which began to be exposed caused relief increase, leading to the development of stable fluvial systems. Progressive relief development modified atmospheric circulation, creating a rainfall gradient. After 3 Ma, orographic rainfall and high relief lead to the development of proximal fluvial-gravitational depositional systems in the surrounding basins.
Paleomagnetic dating of climatic events in Late Quaternary sediments of Lake Baikal (Siberia)
(2004)
Lake Baikal provides an excellent climatic archive for Central Eurasia as global climatic variations are continuously depicted in its sediments. We performed continuous rock magnetic and paleomagnetic analyses on hemipelagic sequences retrieved from 4 underwater highs reaching back 300 ka. The rock magnetic study combined with TEM, XRD, XRF and geochemical analyses evidenced that a magnetite of detrital origin dominates the magnetic signal in glacial sediments whereas interglacial sediments are affected by early diagenesis. HIRM roughly quantifies the hematite and goethite contributions and remains the best proxy for estimating the detrital input in Lake Baikal. Relative paleointensity records of the earth′s magnetic field show a reproducible pattern, which allows for correlation with well-dated reference curves and thus provides an alternative age model for Lake Baikal sediments. Using the paleomagnetic age model we observed that cooling in the Lake Baikal region and cooling of the sea surface water in the North Atlantic, as recorded in planktonic foraminifera δ18 O, are coeval. On the other hand, benthic δ18 O curves record mainly the global ice volume change, which occurs later than the sea surface temperature change. This proves that a dating bias results from an age model based on the correlation of Lake Baikal sedimentary records with benthic δ18 O curves. The compilation of paleomagnetic curves provides a new relative paleointensity curve, “Baikal 200”. With a laser-assisted grain size analysis of the detrital input, three facies types, reflecting different sedimentary dynamics can be distinguished. (1) Glacial periods are characterised by a high clay content mostly due to wind activity and by occurrence of a coarse fraction (sand) transported over the ice by local winds. This fraction gives evidence for aridity in the hinterland. (2) At glacial/interglacial transitions, the quantity of silt increases as the moisture increases, reflecting increased sedimentary dynamics. Wind transport and snow trapping are the dominant process bringing silt to a hemipelagic site (3) During the climatic optimum of the Eemian, the silt size and quantity are minimal due to blanketing of the detrital sources by the vegetal cover.
Paleogene evolution and demise of the proto-Paratethys Sea in Central Asia (Tarim and Tajik basins)
(2019)
The proto-Paratethys Sea covered a vast area extending from the Mediterranean Tethys to the Tarim Basin in western China during Cretaceous and early Paleogene. Climate modelling and proxy studies suggest that Asian aridification has been governed by westerly moisture modulated by fluctuations of the proto-Paratethys Sea. Transgressive and regressive episodes of the proto-Paratethys Sea have been previously recognized but their timing, extent and depositional environments remain poorly constrained. This hampers understanding of their driving mechanisms (tectonic and/or eustatic) and their contribution to Asian aridification. Here, we present a new chronostratigraphic framework based on biostratigraphy and magnetostratigraphy as well as a detailed palaeoenvironmental analysis for the Paleogene proto-Paratethys Sea incursions in the Tajik and Tarim basins. This enables us to identify the major drivers of marine fluctuations and their potential consequences on Asian aridification. A major regional restriction event, marked by the exceptionally thick (<= 400 m) shelf evaporites is assigned a Danian-Selandian age (ca. 63-59 Ma) in the Aertashi Formation. This is followed by the largest recorded proto-Paratethys Sea incursion with a transgression estimated as early Thanetian (ca. 59-57 Ma) and a regression within the Ypresian (ca. 53-52 Ma), both within the Qimugen Formation. The transgression of the next incursion in the Kalatar and Wulagen formations is now constrained as early Lutetian (ca. 47-46 Ma), whereas its regression in the Bashibulake Formation is constrained as late Lutetian (ca. 41 Ma) and is associated with a drastic increase in both tectonic subsidence and basin infilling. The age of the final and least pronounced sea incursion restricted to the westernmost margin of the Tarim Basin is assigned as Bartonian-Priabonian (ca. 39.7-36.7 Ma). We interpret the long-term westward retreat of the proto-Paratethys Sea starting at ca. 41 Ma to be associated with far-field tectonic effects of the Indo-Asia collision and Pamir/Tibetan plateau uplift. Short-term eustatic sea level transgressions are superimposed on this long-term regression and seem coeval with the transgression events in the other northern Peri-Tethyan sedimentary provinces for the 1st and 2nd sea incursions. However, the 3rd sea incursion is interpreted as related to tectonism. The transgressive and regressive intervals of the proto-Paratethys Sea correlate well with the reported humid and arid phases, respectively in the Qaidam and Xining basins, thus demonstrating the role of the proto-Paratethys Sea as an important moisture source for the Asian interior and its regression as a contributor to Asian aridification.