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We and AI
(2021)
Previous studies have explored the consequences of flood events for exposed households and companies by focusing on single flood events. Less is known about the consequences of experiencing repeated flood events for the resilience of households and companies. In this paper, we therefore explore how multiple floods experience affects the resilience of exposed households and companies. Resilience was made operational through individual appraisals of households and companies' ability to withstand and recover from material as well as health and psychological impacts of the 2013 flood in Germany. The paper is based on three different datasets including more than 2000 households and 300 companies that were affected by the 2013 flood. The surveys revealed that the resilience of households seems to increase, but only with regard to their subjectively appraised ability to withstand impacts on mobile goods and equipment (e.g., cars, TV, and radios). In regard to the ability of households to withstand overall financial consequences of repetitive floods, evidence for nonlinear (quadratic) trends can be found. With regard to psychological and health-related consequences, the findings are mixed but provide tentative evidence for eroding resilience among households. Companies' resilience increased with respect to material assets but appears to decrease with respect to ability to recover. We conclude by arguing that clear and operational definitions of resilience are required so that evidence-based resilience baselines can be established to assess whether resilience is eroding or improving over time.
Previous studies have explored the consequences of flood events for exposed households and companies by focusing on single flood events. Less is known about the consequences of experiencing repeated flood events for the resilience of households and companies. In this paper, we therefore explore how multiple floods experience affects the resilience of exposed households and companies. Resilience was made operational through individual appraisals of households and companies' ability to withstand and recover from material as well as health and psychological impacts of the 2013 flood in Germany. The paper is based on three different datasets including more than 2000 households and 300 companies that were affected by the 2013 flood. The surveys revealed that the resilience of households seems to increase, but only with regard to their subjectively appraised ability to withstand impacts on mobile goods and equipment (e.g., cars, TV, and radios). In regard to the ability of households to withstand overall financial consequences of repetitive floods, evidence for nonlinear (quadratic) trends can be found. With regard to psychological and health-related consequences, the findings are mixed but provide tentative evidence for eroding resilience among households. Companies' resilience increased with respect to material assets but appears to decrease with respect to ability to recover. We conclude by arguing that clear and operational definitions of resilience are required so that evidence-based resilience baselines can be established to assess whether resilience is eroding or improving over time.
This book compares local self-government in Europe. It examines local institutional structures, autonomy, and capacities in six selected countries - France, Italy, Sweden, Hungary, Poland, and the United Kingdom - each of which represents a typical model of European local government. Within Europe, an overall trend towards more local government capacities and autonomy can be identified, but there are also some counter tendencies to this trend and major differences regarding local politico-administrative settings, functional responsibilities, and resources. The book demonstrates that a certain degree of local financial autonomy and fiscal discretion is necessary for effective service provision. Furthermore, a robust local organization, viable territorial structures, a professional public service, strong local leadership, and well-functioning tools of democratic participation are key aspects for local governments to effectively fulfill their tasks and ensure political accountability. The book will appeal to students and scholars of Public Administration and Public Management, as well as practitioners and policy-makers at different levels of government, in public enterprises, and in NGOs.
The Eastern Mediterranean is the most seismically active region in Europe due to the complex interactions of the Arabian, African, and Eurasian tectonic plates. Deformation is achieved by faulting in the brittle crust, distributed flow in the viscoelastic lower-crust and mantle, and Hellenic subduction, but the long-term partitioning of these mechanisms is still unknown. We exploit an extensive suite of geodetic observations to build a kinematic model connecting strike-slip deformation, extension, subduction, and shear localization across Anatolia and the Aegean Sea by mapping the distribution of slip and strain accumulation on major active geological structures. We find that tectonic escape is facilitated by a plate-boundary-like, translithospheric shear zone extending from the Gulf of Evia to the Turkish-Iranian Plateau that underlies the surface trace of the North Anatolian Fault. Additional deformation in Anatolia is taken up by a series of smaller-scale conjugate shear zones that reach the upper mantle, the largest of which is located beneath the East Anatolian Fault. Rapid north-south extension in the western part of the system, driven primarily by Hellenic Trench retreat, is accommodated by rotation and broadening of the North Anatolian mantle shear zone from the Sea of Marmara across the north Aegean Sea, and by a system of distributed transform faults and rifts including the rapidly extending Gulf of Corinth in central Greece and the active grabens of western Turkey. Africa-Eurasia convergence along the Hellenic Arc occurs at a median rate of 49.8mm yr(-1) in a largely trench-normal direction except near eastern Crete where variably oriented slip on the megathrust coincides with mixed-mode and strike-slip deformation in the overlying accretionary wedge near the Ptolemy-Pliny-Strabo trenches. Our kinematic model illustrates the competing roles the North Anatolian mantle shear zone, Hellenic Trench, overlying mantle wedge, and active crustal faults play in accommodating tectonic indentation, slab rollback and associated Aegean extension. Viscoelastic flow in the lower crust and upper mantle dominate the surface velocity field across much of Anatolia and a clear transition to megathrust-related slab pull occurs in western Turkey, the Aegean Sea and Greece. Crustal scale faults and the Hellenic wedge contribute only a minor amount to the large-scale, regional pattern of Eastern Mediterranean interseismic surface deformation.
Projected changes in compound flood hazard from riverine and coastal floods in northwestern Europe
(2020)
Compound flooding in coastal regions, that is, the simultaneous or successive occurrence of high sea levels and high river flows, is expected to increase in a warmer world. To date, however, there is no robust evidence on projected changes in compound flooding for northwestern Europe. We combine projected storm surges and river floods with probabilistic, localized relative sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios to assess the future compound flood hazard over northwestern coastal Europe in the high (RCP8.5) emission scenario. We use high-resolution, dynamically downscaled regional climate models (RCM) to drive a storm surge model and a hydrological model, and analyze the joint occurrence of high coastal water levels and associated river peaks in a multivariate copula-based approach. The RCM-forced multimodel mean reasonably represents the observed spatial pattern of the dependence strength between annual maxima surge and peak river discharge, although substantial discrepancies exist between observed and simulated dependence strength. All models overestimate the dependence strength, possibly due to limitations in model parameterizations. This bias affects compound flood hazard estimates and requires further investigation. While our results suggest decreasing compound flood hazard over the majority of sites by 2050s (2040-2069) compared to the reference period (1985-2005), an increase in projected compound flood hazard is limited to around 34% of the sites. Further, we show the substantial role of SLR, a driver of compound floods, which has frequently been neglected. Our findings highlight the need to be aware of the limitations of the current generation of Earth system models in simulating coastal compound floods.
A ground motion logic tree for seismic hazard analysis in the stable cratonic region of Europe
(2020)
Regions of low seismicity present a particular challenge for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis when identifying suitable ground motion models (GMMs) and quantifying their epistemic uncertainty. The 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model adopts a scaled backbone approach to characterise this uncertainty for shallow seismicity in Europe, incorporating region-to-region source and attenuation variability based on European strong motion data. This approach, however, may not be suited to stable cratonic region of northeastern Europe (encompassing Finland, Sweden and the Baltic countries), where exploration of various global geophysical datasets reveals that its crustal properties are distinctly different from the rest of Europe, and are instead more closely represented by those of the Central and Eastern United States. Building upon the suite of models developed by the recent NGA East project, we construct a new scaled backbone ground motion model and calibrate its corresponding epistemic uncertainties. The resulting logic tree is shown to provide comparable hazard outcomes to the epistemic uncertainty modelling strategy adopted for the Eastern United States, despite the different approaches taken. Comparison with previous GMM selections for northeastern Europe, however, highlights key differences in short period accelerations resulting from new assumptions regarding the characteristics of the reference rock and its influence on site amplification.
The 3D thermal field across the Alpine orogen and its forelands and the relation to seismicity
(2020)
Temperature exerts a first order control on rock strength, principally via thermally activated creep deformation and on the distribution at depth of the brittle-ductile transition zone. The latter can be regarded as the lower bound to the seismogenic zone, thereby controlling the spatial distribution of seismicity within a lithospheric plate. As such, models of the crustal thermal field are important to understand the localisation of seismicity. Here we relate results from 3D simulations of the steady state thermal field of the Alpine orogen and its forelands to the distribution of seismicity in this seismically active area of Central Europe. The model takes into account how the crustal heterogeneity of the region effects thermal properties and is validated with a dataset of wellbore temperatures. We find that the Adriatic crust appears more mafic, through its radiogenic heat values (1.30E-06 W/m3) and maximum temperature of seismicity (600 degrees C), than the European crust (1.3-2.6E-06 W/m3 and 450 degrees C). We also show that at depths of < 10 km the thermal field is largely controlled by sedimentary blanketing or topographic effects, whilst the deeper temperature field is primarily controlled by the LAB topology and the distribution and parameterization of radiogenic heat sources within the upper crust.
Postcolonial surveillance
(2022)
Postcolonial Surveillance investigates the long history of the European border regime, focusing on the colonial forerunners of today’s border technologies. The book takes a longue durée perspective to uncover how Europe’s colonial history continues to shape the high-tech political present and has morphed into EU border migration policies, border security, and surveillance apparatuses. It exposes the racial hierarchies and power relations that form these systems and highlights key moments when the past and present interact and collide, such as in panoptic surveillance, biopolitical registers, biometric sorting, and deterrent media infrastructure. The technological genealogies assembled in this book reveal the unacknowledged histories that had to be rejected for the seemingly clean, unbiased, and neutral technologies to emerge as such.
Puumala virus (PUUV) causes many human infections in large parts of Europe and can lead to mild to moderate disease. The bank vole (Myodes glareolus) is the only reservoir of PUUV in Central Europe. A commercial PUUV rapid field test for rodents was validated for bank-vole blood samples collected in two PUUV-endemic regions in Germany (North Rhine-Westphalia and Baden-Wurttemberg). A comparison of the results of the rapid field test and standard ELISAs indicated a test efficacy of 93-95%, largely independent of the origin of the antigens used in the ELISA. In ELISAs, reactivity for the German PUUV strain was higher compared to the Swedish strain but not compared to the Finnish strain, which was used for the rapid field test. In conclusion, the use of the rapid field test can facilitate short-term estimation of PUUV seroprevalence in bank-vole populations in Germany and can aid in assessing human PUUV infection risk.
In 2010, project CoCoCo (incipient COntinent-COntinent COllision) recorded a 650 km long amphibian N-S wide-angle seismic profile, extending from the Anatolian plateau across southern Turkey and Cyprus to just south of the Eratosthenes Seamount (ESM). The aim of the project is to reveal the impact of the transition from subduction to continent-continent collision of Africa with Anatolia. Arrival picking, finite-differences ray-tracing and inversion of the offshore and on-offshore data produced a tomographic model across southern Cyprus, the accretionary wedge and the ESM. The main features of this model are (1) crustal P-velocities predominantly lower than 6.5 km/s beneath the ESM, (2) crustal thickness between 28 and 37 km, (3) an upper crustal reflection at 5 km depth beneath the ESM, (4) the likely presence of oceanic crust south of the ESM and a transform margin north of it and (5) a 12 km thick ophiolite sequence on Cyprus. Land shots on Turkey, also recorded on Cyprus, gravity data and geological and previous seismic investigations allow to derive a layered velocity model beneath Anatolia and the northern part of Cyprus. The main features of this model are (1) Moho depths of 38–45 km beneath the Anatolian plateau, (2) an upper and lower crust with large lateral changes in velocity and thickness, (3) a north-dipping subducting plate below Cyprus with a steepening of the dip-angle of the plate at about 45 km depth. Thus, the wide-angle seismic and gravity data provide detailed insights into the 2-D geometry and velocity structures associated with the Cyprus Arc collision zone. Finally, integrated analysis of the geophysics and geology allows a comprehensive interpretation of the crustal structure related to the collision process.
(1) Background: Sexual violence (SV) is a major public health problem, with negative socio-economic, physical, mental, sexual, and reproductive health consequences. Migrants, applicants for international protection, and refugees (MARs) are vulnerable to SV. Since many European countries are seeing high migratory pressure, the development of prevention strategies and care paths focusing on victimised MARs is highly needed. To this end, this study reviews evidence on the prevalence of SV among MAR groups in Europe and the challenges encountered in research on this topic. (2) Methods: A critical interpretive synthesis of 25 peer-reviewed academic studies and 22 relevant grey literature documents was conducted based on a socio-ecological model. (3) Results: Evidence shows that SV is highly frequent in MARs in Europe, yet comparison with other groups is still difficult. Methodologically and ethically sound representative studies comparing between populations are still lacking. Challenges in researching SV in MARs are located at the intrapersonal, interpersonal, community, societal, and policy levels. (4) Conclusions: Future research should start with a clear definition of the concerned population and acts of SV to generate comparable data. Participatory qualitative research approaches could be applied to better grasp the complexity of interplaying determinants of SV in MARs.
Under what conditions do young precarious workers join unions? Based on case studies from France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States, the authors identify targeted campaigns, coalition building, membership activism, and training activities as innovative organizing approaches. In addition to traditional issues such as wages and training quality, these approaches also featured issues specific to precarious workers, including skills training, demands for minimum working hours, and specific support in insecure employment situations. Organizing success is influenced by bargaining structures, occupational identity, labor market conditions, and support by union leaders and members. Innovative organizing tends to happen when unions combine new approaches with existing structures.
Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3, 57-27 ka) was characterised by numerous rapid climate oscillations (i.e., Dansgaard-Oeschger (D/O-) events), which are reflected in various climate archives. So far, MIS 3 speleothem records from central Europe have mainly been restricted to caves located beneath temperate Alpine glaciers or close to the Atlantic Ocean. Thus, MIS 3 seemed to be too cold and dry to enable speleothem growth north of the Alps in central Europe. Here we present a new speleothem record from Bunker Cave, Germany, which shows two distinct growth phases from 52.0 (+0.8, -0.5) to 50.9 (+0.6, -1.3) ka and 473 (+1.0, -0.6) to 42.8 (+/- 0.9) ka, rejecting this hypothesis. These two growth phases potentially correspond to the two warmest and most humid phases in central Europe during MIS 3, which is confirmed by pollen data from the nearby Eifel. The hiatus separating the two phases is associated with Heinrich stadial 5 (HS 5), although the growth stop precedes the onset of HS 5. The first growth phase is characterised by a fast growth rate, and Mg concentrations and Sr isotope data suggest high infiltration and the presence of soil cover above the cave. The second growth phase was characterised by drier, but still favourable conditions for speleothem growth. During this phase, the delta C-13 values show a significant decrease associated with D/O-event 12. The timing of this shift is in agreement with other MIS 3 speleothem data from Europe and Greenland ice core data. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Species of rust fungi of the genus Milesina (Pucciiastraceae, Pucciniales) are distributed mainly in northern temperate regions. They host-alternate between needles of fir (Abies spp.) and fronds of ferns (species of Polypodiales). Milesina species are distinguished based on host taxonomy and urediniospore morphology. In this study, 12 species of Milesina from Europe were revised. Specimens were examined by light and scanning electron microscopy for urediniospore morphology with a focus on visualising germ pores (number, size and position) and echinulation. In addition, barcode loci (ITS, nad6, 28S) were used for species delimitation and for molecular phylogenetic analyses. Barcodes of 72 Milesina specimens were provided, including 11 of the 12 species. Whereas urediniospore morphology features were sufficient to distinguish all 12 Milesina species except for 2 (M. blechni and M. kriegeriana), ITS sequences separated only 4 of 11 species. Sequencing with 28S and nad6 did not improve species resolution. Phylogenetic analysis, however, revealed four phylogenetic groups within Milesina that also correlate with specific urediniospore characters (germ pore number and position and echinulation). These groups are proposed as new sections within Milesina (sections Milesina, Vogesiacae M. Scholler & Bubner, sect. nov., Scolopendriorum M. Scholler & Bubner, sect. nov. and Carpaticae M. Scholler & Bubner, sect. nov.). In addition, Milesina woodwardiana Buchheit & M. Scholler, sp. nov. on Woodwardia radicans, a member of the type section Milesina, is newly described. An identification key for European Milesina species, based on urediniospore features, is provided.
Towards Eurasia
(2019)
In order to heed the call in world literature studies to work against disciplinary Eurocentrism by refiguring both what constitutes world literature and how this is read, in this article I propose world literature as an archive of world-making practices and as an impulse for the articulation of alternative methodological approaches. This takes world literature from the postcolonial South as, following Pheng Cheah, instantiating a modality of world literature in which the need for imagining worlds with alternative centres to those determined by coloniality is particularly acute. A response to this is facilitated and illustrated by a reading of Bengali poet Rabindranath Tagore’s Letters from Russia (1930), and South African writer/activist Alex La Guma’s A Soviet Journey (1978). By drawing forward connections between the postcolonial South and the former Soviet Union, this complicates traditional colonial arrangements of the colonial ‘centre’ as cradle of civilisation and culture, as well as postcolonial scholarship’s cumulative fetishisation of ‘Europe’, by allowing a reshuffling of the co-ordinates determining ‘centres’ and ‘peripheries’ and a more nuanced grasp of ‘Europe’ simultaneously. These imaginative journeys destabilise ‘Europe’ as closed category and call forth Eurasia as a more appropriate categorical–cartographical framework for thinking this space and the connections and (hi)story-telling it stages and fosters.
Flood risk is impacted by a range of physical and socio-economic processes. Hence, the quantification of flood risk ideally considers the complete flood risk chain, from atmospheric processes through catchment and river system processes to damage mechanisms in the affected areas. Although it is generally accepted that a multitude of changes along the risk chain can occur and impact flood risk, there is a lack of knowledge of how and to what extent changes in influencing factors propagate through the chain and finally affect flood risk. To fill this gap, we present a comprehensive sensitivity analysis which considers changes in all risk components, i.e. changes in climate, catchment, river system, land use, assets, and vulnerability. The application of this framework to the mesoscale Mulde catchment in Germany shows that flood risk can vary dramatically as a consequence of plausible change scenarios. It further reveals that components that have not received much attention, such as changes in dike systems or in vulnerability, may outweigh changes in often investigated components, such as climate. Although the specific results are conditional on the case study area and the selected assumptions, they emphasize the need for a broader consideration of potential drivers of change in a comprehensive way. Hence, our approach contributes to a better understanding of how the different risk components influence the overall flood risk.
(1) Background: Sexual violence (SV) is a major public health problem, with negative socio-economic, physical, mental, sexual, and reproductive health consequences. Migrants, applicants for international protection, and refugees (MARs) are vulnerable to SV. Since many European countries are seeing high migratory pressure, the development of prevention strategies and care paths focusing on victimised MARs is highly needed. To this end, this study reviews evidence on the prevalence of SV among MAR groups in Europe and the challenges encountered in research on this topic. (2) Methods: A critical interpretive synthesis of 25 peer-reviewed academic studies and 22 relevant grey literature documents was conducted based on a socio-ecological model. (3) Results: Evidence shows that SV is highly frequent in MARs in Europe, yet comparison with other groups is still difficult. Methodologically and ethically sound representative studies comparing between populations are still lacking. Challenges in researching SV in MARs are located at the intrapersonal, interpersonal, community, societal, and policy levels. (4) Conclusions: Future research should start with a clear definition of the concerned population and acts of SV to generate comparable data. Participatory qualitative research approaches could be applied to better grasp the complexity of interplaying determinants of SV in MARs.
Ongoing and past biome transitions are generally assigned to climate and atmospheric changes (e.g. temperature, precipitation, CO2), but the major regional factors or factor combinations that drive vegetation change often remain unknown. Modelling studies applying ensemble runs can help to partition the effects of the different drivers. Such studies require careful validation with observational data. In this study, fossil pollen records from 741 sites in Europe, 728 sites in North America, and 418 sites in Asia (extracted from terrestrial archives including lake sediments) are used to reconstruct biomes at selected time slices between 40 cal ka BP (calibrated thousand years before present) and today. These results are used to validate Northern Hemisphere biome distributions (>30 degrees N) simulated by the biome model BIOME4 that has been forced with climate data simulated by a General Circulation model. Quantitative comparisons between pollen- and model-based results show a generally good fit at a broad spatial scale. Mismatches occur in central-arid Asia with a broader extent of grassland throughout the last 40 ka (likely due to the over-representation of Artemisia and Chenopodiaceae pollen) and in Europe with over-estimation of tundra at 0 cal ka BP (likely due to human impacts to some extent). Sensitivity analysis reveals that broad-scale biome changes follow the global signal of major postglacial temperature change, although the climatic variables vary in their regional and temporal importance. Temperature is the dominant variable in Europe and other rather maritime areas for biome changes between 21 and 14 ka, while precipitation is highly important in the arid inland regions of Asia and North America. The ecophysiological effect of changes in the atmospheric CO2-concentration has the highest impact during this transition than in other intervals. With respect to modern vegetation in the course of global warming, our findings imply that vegetation change in the Northern Hemisphere may be strongly limited by effective moisture changes, i.e. the combined effect of temperature and precipitation, particularly in inland areas. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
This is the eleventh of a series of miscellaneous contributions, by various authors, where hitherto unpublished data relevant to both the Med-Checklist and the Euro+Med (or Sisyphus) projects are presented. This instalment deals with the families Anacardiaceae, Asparagaceae (incl. Hyacinthaceae), Bignoniaceae, Cactaceae, Compositae, Cruciferae, Cyperaceae, Ericaceae, Gramineae, Labiatae, Leguminosae, Orobanchaceae, Polygonaceae, Rosaceae, Solanaceae and Staphyleaceae. It includes new country and area records and taxonomic and distributional considerations for taxa in Bidens, Campsis, Centaurea, Cyperus, Drymocallis, Engem, Hoffmannseggia, Hypopitys, Lavandula, Lithraea, Melilotus, Nicotiana, Olimarabidopsis, Opuntia, Orobanche, Phelipanche, Phragmites, Rumex, Salvia, Schinus, Staphylea, and a new combination in Drimia.