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We show how the maximum magnitude within a predefined future time horizon may be estimated from an earthquake catalog within the context of Gutenberg-Richter statistics. The aim is to carry out a rigorous uncertainty assessment, and calculate precise confidence intervals based on an imposed level of confidence a. In detail, we present a model for the estimation of the maximum magnitude to occur in a time interval T-f in the future, given a complete earthquake catalog for a time period T in the past and, if available, paleoseismic events. For this goal, we solely assume that earthquakes follow a stationary Poisson process in time with unknown productivity Lambda and obey the Gutenberg-Richter law in magnitude domain with unknown b-value. The random variables. and b are estimated by means of Bayes theorem with noninformative prior distributions. Results based on synthetic catalogs and on retrospective calculations of historic catalogs from the highly active area of Japan and the low-seismicity, but high-risk region lower Rhine embayment (LRE) in Germany indicate that the estimated magnitudes are close to the true values. Finally, we discuss whether the techniques can be extended to meet the safety requirements for critical facilities such as nuclear power plants. For this aim, the maximum magnitude for all times has to be considered. In agreement with earlier work, we find that this parameter is not a useful quantity from the viewpoint of statistical inference.
Convergence of the frequency-magnitude distribution of global earthquakes - maybe in 200 years
(2013)
I study the ability to estimate the tail of the frequency-magnitude distribution of global earthquakes. While power-law scaling for small earthquakes is accepted by support of data, the tail remains speculative. In a recent study, Bell et al. (2013) claim that the frequency-magnitude distribution of global earthquakes converges to a tapered Pareto distribution. I show that this finding results from data fitting errors, namely from the biased maximum likelihood estimation of the corner magnitude theta in strongly undersampled models. In particular, the estimation of theta depends solely on the few largest events in the catalog. Taking this into account, I compare various state-of-the-art models for the global frequency-magnitude distribution. After discarding undersampled models, the remaining ones, including the unbounded Gutenberg-Richter distribution, perform all equally well and are, therefore, indistinguishable. Convergence to a specific distribution, if it ever takes place, requires about 200 years homogeneous recording of global seismicity, at least.
We explore fluctuations of the horizontal component of the Earth's magnetic field to identify scaling behaviour of the temporal variability in geomagnetic data recorded by the Intermagnet observatories during the solar cycle 23 (years 1996 to 2005). In this work, we use the remarkable ability of scaling wavelet exponents to highlight the singularities associated with discontinuities present in the magnetograms obtained at two magnetic observatories for six intense magnetic storms, including the sudden storm commencements of 14 July 2000, 29-31 October and 20-21 November 2003. In the active intervals that occurred during geomagnetic storms, we observe a rapid and unidirectional change in the spectral scaling exponent at the time of storm onset. The corresponding fractal features suggest that the dynamics of the whole time series is similar to that of a fractional Brownian motion. Our findings point to an evident relatively sudden change related to the emergence of persistency of the fractal power exponent fluctuations precedes an intense magnetic storm. These first results could be useful in the framework of extreme events prediction studies.
In a recent paper with N. Tarkhanov, the Lefschetz number for endomorphisms (modulo trace class operators) of sequences of trace class curvature was introduced. We show that this is a well defined, canonical extension of the classical Lefschetz number and establish the homotopy invariance of this number. Moreover, we apply the results to show that the Lefschetz fixed point formula holds for geometric quasiendomorphisms of elliptic quasicomplexes.
On Particular n-Clones
(2013)
We consider Dyson-Schwinger Equations (DSEs) in the context of Connes-Kreimer renormalization Hopf algebra of Feynman diagrams and Connes-Marcolli universal Tannakian formalism. This study leads us to formulate a family of Picard-Fuchs equations and a category of Feynman motivic sheaves with respect to each combinatorial DSE.
On completeness of root functions of Sturm-Liouville problems with discontinuous boundary operators
(2013)
We consider a Sturm-Liouville boundary value problem in a bounded domain D of R-n. By this is meant that the differential equation is given by a second order elliptic operator of divergent form in D and the boundary conditions are of Robin type on partial derivative D. The first order term of the boundary operator is the oblique derivative whose coefficients bear discontinuities of the first kind. Applying the method of weak perturbation of compact selfadjoint operators and the method of rays of minimal growth, we prove the completeness of root functions related to the boundary value problem in Lebesgue and Sobolev spaces of various types. (C) 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
We consider a (generally, non-coercive) mixed boundary value problem in a bounded domain for a second order elliptic differential operator A. The differential operator is assumed to be of divergent form and the boundary operator B is of Robin type. The boundary is assumed to be a Lipschitz surface. Besides, we distinguish a closed subset of the boundary and control the growth of solutions near this set. We prove that the pair (A,B) induces a Fredholm operator L in suitable weighted spaces of Sobolev type, the weight function being a power of the distance to the singular set. Moreover, we prove the completeness of root functions related to L.
We use a dynamic scanning electron microscope (DySEM) to analyze the movement of oscillating micromechanical structures. A dynamic secondary electron (SE) signal is recorded and correlated to the oscillatory excitation of scanning force microscope (SFM) cantilever by means of lock-in amplifiers. We show, how the relative phase of the oscillations modulate the resulting real part and phase pictures of the DySEM mapping. This can be used to obtain information about the underlying oscillatory dynamics. We apply the theory to the case of a cantilever in oscillation, driven at different flexural and torsional resonance modes. This is an extension of a recent work (Schroter et al 2012 Nanotechnology 23 435501), where we reported on a general methodology to distinguish nonlinear features caused by the imaging process from those caused by cantilever motion.
In this Letter we give some general considerations about circularly symmetric, static space-times in 2 + 1 dimensions, focusing first on the surprising (at the time) existence of the BTZ black hole solution. We show that BTZ black holes and Schwarzschild black holes in 3 + 1 dimensions originate from different definitions of a black hole. There are two by-products of this general discussion: (i) we give a new and simple derivation of (2 + 1)-dimensional Anti-de Sitter (AdS) space-time; (ii) we present an exact solution to (2 + 1)-dimensional gravity coupled to a self-interacting real scalar field. The spatial part of the metric of this solution is flat but the temporal part behaves asymptotically like AdS space-time. The scalar field has logarithmic behavior as one would expect for a massless scalar field in flat space-time. The solution can be compared to gravitating scalar field solutions in 3 + 1 dimensions but with certain oddities connected with the (2 + 1)-dimensional character of the space-time. The solution is unique to 2 + 1 dimensions; it does not carry over to 3 + 1 dimensions.
We study a class of isotropic cosmologies in the fourth-order gravity with Lagrangians of the form L = f(R) + k(G) where R and G are the Ricci and Gauss-Bonnet scalars, respectively. A general discussion is given on the conditions under which this gravitational Lagrangian is scale-invariant or almost scale-invariant. We then apply this general background to the specific case L = alpha R-2 + beta Gln G with constants alpha, beta. We find closed form cosmological solutions for this case. One interesting feature of this choice of f(R) and k(G) is that for very small negative value of the parameter beta, the Lagrangian L = R-2/3 + beta Gln G leads to the replacement of the exact de Sitter solution coming from L = R-2 (which is a local attractor) to an exact, power-law inflation solution a(t) = t(p) = t(-3/beta) which is also a local attractor. This shows how one can modify the dynamics from de Sitter to power-law inflation by the addition of a Gln G-term.
We study a broad class of isotropic vacuum cosmologies in fourth-order gravity under the condition that the gravitational Lagrangian be scale-invariant or almost scale-invariant. The gravitational Lagrangians considered will be of the form L = f(R) + k(G) where R and G are the Ricci and Gauss-Bonnet scalars respectively. Specifically we take f(R) = R^2n and k(G) = G^n or k(G) = G ln G. We find solutions in closed form for a spatially flat Friedmann space-time and interpret their asymptotic early-time and late-time behaviour as well as their inflationary stages. One unique example which we discuss is the case of a very small negative value of the parameter b in the Lagrangian L = R^2 + b G ln G which leads to the replacement of the exact de Sitter solution from L = R^2 (being a local attractor) to a power-law inflation exact solution also representing a local attractor. This shows how one can modify the dynamics from de Sitter to power-law inflation by the addition of the G ln G-term.
In this paper we give some general considerations about circularly symmetric, static space-times in 2+1 dimensions, focusing first on the surprising (at the time) existence of the BTZ black hole solution. We show that BTZ black holes and Schwarzschild black holes in 3+1 dimensions originate from different definitions of a black hole. There are two by-products of this general discussion: (i) we give a new and simple derivation of 2+1 dimensional Anti-de Sitter (AdS) space-time; (ii) we present an exact solution to 2+1 dimensional gravity coupled to a self-interacting real scalar field. The spatial part of the metric of this solution is flat but the temporal part behaves asymptotically like AdS space-time. The scalar field has logarithmic behavior as one would expect for a massless scalar field in flat space- time. The solution can be compared to gravitating scalar field solutions in 3+1 dimensions but with certain oddities connected with the 2+1 dimensional character of the space-time. The solution is unique to 2+1 dimensions; it does not carry over to 3+1 dimensions.
We classify the existent Birkhoff-type theorems into four classes: first, in field theory, the theorem states the absence of helicity 0- and spin 0-parts of the gravitational field. Second, in relativistic astrophysics, it is the statement that the gravitational far-field of a spherically symmetric star carries, apart from its mass, no information about the star; therefore, a radially oscillating star has a static gravitational far-field. Third, in mathematical physics, Birkhoff's theorem reads: up to singular exceptions of measure zero, the spherically symmetric solutions of Einstein's vacuum field equation with can be expressed by the Schwarzschild metric; for , it is the Schwarzschild-de Sitter metric instead. Fourth, in differential geometry, any statement of the type: every member of a family of pseudo-Riemannian space-times has more isometries than expected from the original metric ansatz, carries the name Birkhoff-type theorem. Within the fourth of these classes we present some new results with further values of dimension and signature of the related spaces; including them are some counterexamples: families of space-times where no Birkhoff-type theorem is valid. These counterexamples further confirm the conjecture, that the Birkhoff-type theorems have their origin in the property, that the two eigenvalues of the Ricci tensor of 2-D pseudo-Riemannian spaces always coincide, a property not having an analogy in higher dimensions. Hence, Birkhoff-type theorems exist only for those physical situations which are reducible to 2-D.
We classify the existent Birkhoff-type theorems into four classes: First, in field theory, the theorem states the absence of helicity 0- and spin 0-parts of the gravitational field. Second, in relativistic astrophysics, it is the statement that the gravitational far-field of a spherically symmetric star carries, apart from its mass, no information about the star; therefore, a radially oscillating star has a static gravitational far-field. Third, in mathematical physics, Birkhoff's theorem reads: up to singular exceptions of measure zero, the spherically symmetric solutions of Einstein's vacuum field equation with Lambda = 0 can be expressed by the Schwarzschild metric; for Lambda unequal 0, it is the Schwarzschild-de Sitter metric instead. Fourth, in differential geometry, any statement of the type: every member of a family of pseudo-Riemannian space-times has more isometries than expected from the original metric ansatz, carries the name Birkhoff-type theorem. Within the fourth of these classes we present some new results with further values of dimension and signature of the related spaces; including them are some counterexamples: families of space-times where no Birkhoff-type theorem is valid. These counterexamples further confirm the conjecture, that the Birkhoff-type theorems have their origin in the property, that the two eigenvalues of the Ricci tensor of two- dimensional pseudo-Riemannian spaces always coincide, a property not having an analogy in higher dimensions. Hence, Birkhoff-type theorems exist only for those physical situations which are reducible to two dimensions.
We consider infinite-dimensional diffusions where the interaction between the coordinates has a finite extent both in space and time. In particular, it is not supposed to be smooth or Markov. The initial state of the system is Gibbs, given by a strong summable interaction. If the strongness of this initial interaction is lower than a suitable level, and if the dynamical interaction is bounded from above in a right way, we prove that the law of the diffusion at any time t is a Gibbs measure with absolutely summable interaction. The main tool is a cluster expansion in space uniformly in time of the Girsanov factor coming from the dynamics and exponential ergodicity of the free dynamics to an equilibrium product measure.