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Previous studies have explored the consequences of flood events for exposed households and companies by focusing on single flood events. Less is known about the consequences of experiencing repeated flood events for the resilience of households and companies. In this paper, we therefore explore how multiple floods experience affects the resilience of exposed households and companies. Resilience was made operational through individual appraisals of households and companies' ability to withstand and recover from material as well as health and psychological impacts of the 2013 flood in Germany. The paper is based on three different datasets including more than 2000 households and 300 companies that were affected by the 2013 flood. The surveys revealed that the resilience of households seems to increase, but only with regard to their subjectively appraised ability to withstand impacts on mobile goods and equipment (e.g., cars, TV, and radios). In regard to the ability of households to withstand overall financial consequences of repetitive floods, evidence for nonlinear (quadratic) trends can be found. With regard to psychological and health-related consequences, the findings are mixed but provide tentative evidence for eroding resilience among households. Companies' resilience increased with respect to material assets but appears to decrease with respect to ability to recover. We conclude by arguing that clear and operational definitions of resilience are required so that evidence-based resilience baselines can be established to assess whether resilience is eroding or improving over time.
Previous studies have explored the consequences of flood events for exposed households and companies by focusing on single flood events. Less is known about the consequences of experiencing repeated flood events for the resilience of households and companies. In this paper, we therefore explore how multiple floods experience affects the resilience of exposed households and companies. Resilience was made operational through individual appraisals of households and companies' ability to withstand and recover from material as well as health and psychological impacts of the 2013 flood in Germany. The paper is based on three different datasets including more than 2000 households and 300 companies that were affected by the 2013 flood. The surveys revealed that the resilience of households seems to increase, but only with regard to their subjectively appraised ability to withstand impacts on mobile goods and equipment (e.g., cars, TV, and radios). In regard to the ability of households to withstand overall financial consequences of repetitive floods, evidence for nonlinear (quadratic) trends can be found. With regard to psychological and health-related consequences, the findings are mixed but provide tentative evidence for eroding resilience among households. Companies' resilience increased with respect to material assets but appears to decrease with respect to ability to recover. We conclude by arguing that clear and operational definitions of resilience are required so that evidence-based resilience baselines can be established to assess whether resilience is eroding or improving over time.
Recent policy changes highlight the need for citizens to take adaptive actions to reduce flood-related impacts. Here, we argue that these changes represent a wider behavioral turn in flood risk management (FRM). The behavioral turn is based on three fundamental assumptions: first, that the motivations of citizens to take adaptive actions can be well understood so that these motivations can be targeted in the practice of FRM; second, that private adaptive measures and actions are effective in reducing flood risk; and third, that individuals have the capacities to implement such measures. We assess the extent to which the assumptions can be supported by empirical evidence. We do this by engaging with three intellectual catchments. We turn to research by psychologists and other behavioral scientists which focus on the sociopsychological factors which influence individual motivations (Assumption 1). We engage with economists, engineers, and quantitative risk analysts who explore the extent to which individuals can reduce flood related impacts by quantifying the effectiveness and efficiency of household-level adaptive measures (Assumption 2). We converse with human geographers and sociologists who explore the types of capacities households require to adapt to and cope with threatening events (Assumption 3). We believe that an investigation of the behavioral turn is important because if the outlined assumptions do not hold, there is a risk of creating and strengthening inequalities in FRM. Therefore, we outline the current intellectual and empirical knowledge as well as future research needs. Generally, we argue that more collaboration across intellectual catchments is needed, that future research should be more theoretically grounded and become methodologically more rigorous and at the same time focus more explicitly on the normative underpinnings of the behavioral turn.
Recent policy changes highlight the need for citizens to take adaptive actions to reduce flood-related impacts. Here, we argue that these changes represent a wider behavioral turn in flood risk management (FRM). The behavioral turn is based on three fundamental assumptions: first, that the motivations of citizens to take adaptive actions can be well understood so that these motivations can be targeted in the practice of FRM; second, that private adaptive measures and actions are effective in reducing flood risk; and third, that individuals have the capacities to implement such measures. We assess the extent to which the assumptions can be supported by empirical evidence. We do this by engaging with three intellectual catchments. We turn to research by psychologists and other behavioral scientists which focus on the sociopsychological factors which influence individual motivations (Assumption 1). We engage with economists, engineers, and quantitative risk analysts who explore the extent to which individuals can reduce flood related impacts by quantifying the effectiveness and efficiency of household-level adaptive measures (Assumption 2). We converse with human geographers and sociologists who explore the types of capacities households require to adapt to and cope with threatening events (Assumption 3). We believe that an investigation of the behavioral turn is important because if the outlined assumptions do not hold, there is a risk of creating and strengthening inequalities in FRM. Therefore, we outline the current intellectual and empirical knowledge as well as future research needs. Generally, we argue that more collaboration across intellectual catchments is needed, that future research should be more theoretically grounded and become methodologically more rigorous and at the same time focus more explicitly on the normative underpinnings of the behavioral turn.
There is a movement towards the concepts of integrated flood risk management and governance. In these concepts, each stakeholder prone to flooding is tasked with actively limiting flood impacts. Currently, relatively more research has focused upon the adaptation of private households and not on private businesses operating in flood-prone areas. This paper offers an extension of this literature on business-level flood adaptation by exploring the potential presence of moral hazard. The analyses are based on survey data collected in the aftermath of six floods across Germany between 2002 and 2013 to provide a first indication of the presence of moral hazard in private businesses. Moral hazard is where increased insurance coverage results in policyholders preparing less, increasing the risk they face, a counterproductive outcome. We present an initial study of moral hazard occurring through three channels: the performance of emergency measures during a flood, changes in precautionary behavior employed before a given flood occurred, and changes in the intention to employ additional precautionary measures after a flood. We find, much like for private households, no strong indication that moral hazard is present regarding past adaptation. However, there is a potential avenue after 2005 for insurance coverage to lower businesses' intentions to employ more adaptation measures after a flood. This has significant policy relevance such as opportunities for strengthening the link between insurance and risk reduction measures and boosting insurance coverage against flooding in general.
Portal Wissen = Excellence
(2023)
When something is not just good or very good, we often call it excellent. But what does that really mean? Coming from the Latin word “excellere,” it describes things, persons, or actions that are outstanding or superior and distinguish themselves from others. It cannot get any better. Excellence is the top choice for being the first or the best. Research is no exception.
At the university, you will find numerous exceptional researchers, outstanding projects, and, time and again, sensational findings, publications, and results. But is the University of Potsdam also excellent? A question that will certainly create a different stir in 2023 than it did perhaps 20 years ago. Since the launch of the Excellence Initiative in 2005, universities that succeed in winning the most comprehensive funding program for research in Germany have been considered – literally – excellent. Whether in the form of graduate schools, research clusters, or – since the program was continued in 2019 under the title “Excellence Strategy” – entire universities of excellence: Anyone who wants to be among the best research universities needs the seal of excellence.
The University of Potsdam is applying for funding with three cluster proposals in the recently launched new round of the “Excellence Strategy of the German Federal and State Governments.” One proposal comes from ecology and biodiversity research. The aim is to paint a comprehensive picture of ecological processes by examining the role of single individuals as well as the interactions among many species in an ecosystem to precisely determine the function of biodiversity. A second proposal has been submitted by the cognitive sciences. Here, the complex coexistence of language and cognition, development and learning, as well as motivation and behavior will be researched as a dynamic interrelation. The projects will include cooperation with the educational sciences to constantly consider linked learning and educational processes. The third proposal from the geo and environmental sciences concentrates on extreme and particularly devastating natural hazards and processes such as floods and droughts. The researchers examine these extreme events, focusing on their interaction with society, to be able to better assess the risks and damages they might involve and to initiate timely measures in the future.
“All three proposals highlight the excellence of our performance,” emphasizes University President Prof. Oliver Günther, Ph.D. “The outlines impressively document our commitment, existing research excellence, and the potential of the University of Potsdam as a whole. The fact that three powerful consortia have come together in different subject areas shows that we have taken a good step forward on our way to becoming one of the top German universities.”
In this issue, we are looking at what is in and behind these proposals: We talked to the researchers who wrote them. We asked them about their plans in case their proposals are successful and they bring a cluster of excellence to the university. But we also looked at the research that has led to the proposals, has long shaped the university’s profile, and earned it national and international recognition. We present a small selection of projects, methods, and researchers to illustrate why there really is excellent research in these proposals!
By the way, “excellence” is also not the end of the flagpole. After all, the adjective “excellent” even has a comparative and a superlative. With this in mind, I wish you the most excellent pleasure reading this issue!
Portal Wissen = Exzellenz
(2023)
Was nicht nur gut oder sehr gut ist, nennen wir gern exzellent. Aber was meint das eigentlich? Vom lateinischen „excellere“ kommend, beschreibt es Dinge, Personen oder Handlungen, die „hervor-“ oder „herausragen“ aus der Menge, sich „auszeichnen“ gegenüber anderen. Mehr geht nicht. Exzellenz ist das Mittel der Wahl, wenn es darum geht, der Erste oder Beste zu sein. Und das macht auch vor der Forschung nicht halt. Wer auf die Universität Potsdam schaut, findet zahlreiche ausgezeichnete Forschende, hervorragende Projekte und immer wieder auch aufsehenerregende Erkenntnisse, Veröffentlichungen und Ergebnisse.
Aber ist die UP auch exzellent? Eine Frage, die 2023 ganz sicher andere Wellen schlägt als vielleicht vor 20 Jahren. Denn seit dem Start der Exzellenzinitiative 2005 gelten als – wörtlich – exzellent jene Hochschulen, denen es gelingt, in dem umfangreichsten Förderprogramm für Wissenschaft in Deutschland einen Zuschlag zu erhalten. Egal ob in Form von Graduiertenschulen, Forschungsclustern oder – seit Fortsetzung des Programms ab 2019 unter dem Titel „Exzellenzstrategie“ – ganzen Exzellenzuniversitäten: Wer im Kreis der Forschungsuniversitäten zu den Besten gehören will, braucht das Siegel der Exzellenz. In der gerade eingeläuteten neuen Wettbewerbsrunde der „Exzellenzstrategie des Bundes und der Länder“ bewirbt sich die Universität Potsdam mit drei Clusterskizzen um Förderung.
Ein Antrag kommt aus der Ökologie- und Biodiversitätsforschung. Ziel ist es, ein komplexes Bild ökologischer Prozesse zu zeichnen – und dabei die Rolle von einzelnen Individuen ebenso zu betrachten wie das Zusammenwirken vieler Arten in einem Ökosystem, um die Funktion der Artenvielfalt genauer zu bestimmen. Eine zweite Skizze haben die Kognitionswissenschaften eingereicht. Hier soll das komplexe Nebeneinander von Sprache und Kognition, Entwicklung und Lernen sowie Motivation und Verhalten als dynamisches Miteinander erforscht werden – wobei auch mit den Erziehungswissenschaften kooperiert wird, um verknüpfte Lernund Bildungsprozesse stets mitzudenken. Der dritte Antrag aus den Geo- und Umweltwissenschaften nimmt extreme und besonders folgenschwere Naturgefahren und -prozesse wie Überschwemmungen und Dürren in den Blick. Die Forschenden untersuchen die Extremereignisse mit besonderem Fokus auf deren Wechselwirkung mit der Gesellschaft, um mit ihnen einhergehende Risiken und Schäden besser einschätzen sowie künftig rechtzeitig Maßnahmen einleiten zu können.
„Alle drei Anträge zeichnen ein hervorragendes Bild unserer Leistungsfähigkeit“, betont der Präsident der Universität, Prof. Oliver Günther, Ph.D. „Die Skizzen dokumentieren eindrucksvoll unser Engagement, vorhandene Forschungsexzellenz sowie die Potenziale der Universität Potsdam insgesamt. Allein die Tatsache, dass sich drei schlagkräftige Konsortien in ganz unterschiedlichen Themenbereichen zusammengefunden haben, zeigt, dass wir auf unserem Weg in die Spitzengruppe der deutschen Universitäten einen guten Schritt vorangekommen sind.“
In diesem Heft schauen wir, was sich in und hinter diesen Anträgen verbirgt: Wir haben mit den Wissenschaftlerinnen und Wissenschaftlern gesprochen, die sie geschrieben haben, und sie gefragt, was sie sich vornehmen, sollten sie den Zuschlag erhalten und ein Cluster an die Universität holen. Wir haben aber auch auf die Forschung geschaut, die zu den Anträgen geführt hat und die schon länger das Profil der Universität prägt und ihr national wie international Anerkennung eingebracht hat. Wir stellen eine kleine Auswahl an Projekten, Methoden und Forschenden vor, um zu zeigen, warum in diesen Anträgen tatsächlich exzellente Forschung steckt! Übrigens: Auch „Exzellenz“ ist nicht das Ende der Fahnenstange. Immerhin lässt sich das Adjektiv exzellent sogar steigern. In diesem Sinne wünschen wir exzellentestes Vergnügen beim Lesen!
Die Hochwasserkatastrophe im Juli 2021 in Westdeutschland erfordert eine kritische Diskussion über die Abschätzung der Hochwassergefährdung, Aktualisierung von Hochwassergefahrenkarten und Kommunikation von extremen Hochwasserszenarien. In der vorliegenden Arbeit wurde die Extremwertstatistik für die jährlichen maximalen Spitzenabflüsse am Pegel Altenahr im Ahrtal mit und ohne Berücksichtigung historischer Hochwasser berechnet und verglichen. Die Schätzung der Wiederkehrperiode für das aktuelle Hochwasser mittels Generalisierter Extremwertverteilung (GEV) unter Berücksichtigung historischer Hochwasser schwankt zwischen etwa 2.600 und über 58.700 Jahren (90%-Konfidenzintervall) mit einem Median bei etwa 8.600 Jahren, wogegen die Schätzung, die nur auf der systematisch gemessenen Abflusszeitreihe von 74 Jahren basiert, theoretisch eine Wiederkehrperiode von über 100 Millionen Jahren ergeben würde. Die Berücksichtigung der historischen Hochwasser führt zu einer dramatischen Änderung der Hochwasserquan-
tile, die für eine Gefahrenkartierung zugrunde gelegt werden. Die Anpassung der GEV an die Zeitreihe mit historischen Hochwassern zeigt dennoch, dass das GEV-Modell möglicherweise die Grundgesamtheit der Hochwasser im Ahrtal nicht adäquat abbilden kann. Es könnte sich im vorliegenden Fall um eine gemischte Stichprobe handeln, in der die extremen Hochwasser im Vergleich zu kleineren Ereignissen durch besondere Prozesse hervorgerufen werden. Somit könnten die Wahrscheinlichkeiten von extremen Hochwassern deutlich größer sein, als aus dem GEV-Modell hervorgeht. Hier sollte in Zukunft die Anwendung einer prozessbasierten Mischverteilung
untersucht werden. Der Vergleich von amtlichen Gefahrenkarten zu Extremhochwassern (HQextrem) im Ahrtal mit den Überflutungsflächen vom Juli 2021
zeigt eine deutliche Diskrepanz in den betroffenen Gebieten und die Notwendigkeit, die Grundlagen zur Erstellung der Extremszenarien zu überdenken. Die hydrodynamisch-numerischen Simulationen von 1.000-jährlichen Hochwassern (HQ1000) unter Berücksichtigung historischer Ereignisse und des größten historischen Hochwassers 1804 können die Gefährdung des Juli-Hochwassers 2021 deutlich besser widerspiegeln, wenngleich auch diese beiden Szenarien die Überflutungsflächen unterschätzen. Besondere Effekte wie die Verklausung von Brücken und die geomorphologischen Änderungen im Flussschlauch führten zu noch größeren Überflutungs- flächen im Juli 2021, als die Simulationsergebnisse zeigten. Basierend auf dieser Analyse wird eine einheitliche Festlegung von HQextrem bei Hochwassergefahrenkartierungen in Deutschland vorgeschlagen, die sich an höheren Hochwasserquantilen im Bereich von HQ1000 orientiert. Zusätzlich sollen simulationsbasierte Rekonstruktionen von den größten verlässlich dokumentierten historischen Hochwassern und/oder synthetische Worst-Case-Szenarien in den Hochwassergefahrenkarten gesondert dargestellt werden. Damit wird ein wichtiger Beitrag geleistet, um die potenziell betroffene Bevölkerung und das Katastrophenmanagement vor Überraschungen durch sehr seltene und extreme Hochwasser in Zukunft besser zu schützen.
The Flood Damage Database HOWAS 21 contains object-specific flood damage data resulting from fluvial, pluvial and groundwater flooding. The datasets incorporate various variables of flood hazard, exposure, vulnerability and direct tangible damage at properties from several economic sectors. The main purpose of development of HOWAS 21 was to support forensic flood analysis and the derivation of flood damage models. HOWAS 21 was first developed for Germany and currently almost exclusively contains datasets from Germany. However, its scope has recently been enlarged with the aim to serve as an international flood damage database; e.g. its web application is now available in German and English. This paper presents the recent advancements of HOWAS 21 and highlights exemplary analyses to demonstrate the use of HOWAS 21 flood damage data. The data applications indicate a large potential of the database for fostering a better understanding and estimation of the consequences of flooding.
Flood risk management in Germany follows an integrative approach in which both private households and businesses can make an important contribution to reducing flood damage by implementing property-level adaptation measures. While the flood adaptation behavior of private households has already been widely researched, comparatively less attention has been paid to the adaptation strategies of businesses. However, their ability to cope with flood risk plays an important role in the social and economic development of a flood-prone region. Therefore, using quantitative survey data, this study aims to identify different strategies and adaptation drivers of 557 businesses damaged by a riverine flood in 2013 and 104 businesses damaged by pluvial or flash floods between 2014 and 2017. Our results indicate that a low perceived self-efficacy may be an important factor that can reduce the motivation of businesses to adapt to flood risk. Furthermore, property-owners tended to act more proactively than tenants. In addition, high experience with previous flood events and low perceived response costs could strengthen proactive adaptation behavior. These findings should be considered in business-tailored risk communication.
Cities can be severely affected by climate change. Hence, many of them have started to develop climate adaptation strategies or implement measures to help prepare for the challenges it will present. This study aims to provide an overview of climate adaptation in 104 German cities. While existing studies on adaptation tracking rely heavily on self-reported data or the mere existence of adaptation plans, we applied the broader concept of adaptation readiness, considering five factors and a total of twelve different indicators, when making our assessments. We clustered the cities depending on the contribution of these factors to the overall adaptation readiness index and grouped them according to their total score and cluster affiliations. This resulted in us identifying four groups of cities. First, a pioneering group comprises twelve (mainly big) cities with more than 500,000 inhabitants, which showed high scores for all five factors of adaptation readiness. Second, a set of 36 active cities, which follow different strategies on how to deal with climate adaptation. Third, a group of 28 cities showed considerably less activity toward climate adaptation, while a fourth set of 28 mostly small cities (with between 50,000 and 99,999 inhabitants) scored the lowest. We consider this final group to be pursuing a 'wait-and-see' approach. Since the city size correlates with the adaptation readiness index, we recommend policymakers introduce funding schemes that focus on supporting small cities, to help them prepare for the impact of a changing climate.
Flood risk management in Germany follows an integrative approach in which both private households and businesses can make an important contribution to reducing flood damage by implementing property-level adaptation measures. While the flood adaptation behavior of private households has already been widely researched, comparatively less attention has been paid to the adaptation strategies of businesses. However, their ability to cope with flood risk plays an important role in the social and economic development of a flood-prone region. Therefore, using quantitative survey data, this study aims to identify different strategies and adaptation drivers of 557 businesses damaged by a riverine flood in 2013 and 104 businesses damaged by pluvial or flash floods between 2014 and 2017. Our results indicate that a low perceived self-efficacy may be an important factor that can reduce the motivation of businesses to adapt to flood risk. Furthermore, property-owners tended to act more proactively than tenants. In addition, high experience with previous flood events and low perceived response costs could strengthen proactive adaptation behavior. These findings should be considered in business-tailored risk communication.
Flood risk management in Germany follows an integrative approach in which both private households and businesses can make an important contribution to reducing flood damage by implementing property-level adaptation measures. While the flood adaptation behavior of private households has already been widely researched, comparatively less attention has been paid to the adaptation strategies of businesses. However, their ability to cope with flood risk plays an important role in the social and economic development of a flood-prone region. Therefore, using quantitative survey data, this study aims to identify different strategies and adaptation drivers of 557 businesses damaged by a riverine flood in 2013 and 104 businesses damaged by pluvial or flash floods between 2014 and 2017. Our results indicate that a low perceived self-efficacy may be an important factor that can reduce the motivation of businesses to adapt to flood risk. Furthermore, property-owners tended to act more proactively than tenants. In addition, high experience with previous flood events and low perceived response costs could strengthen proactive adaptation behavior. These findings should be considered in business-tailored risk communication.
Over the past decades, floods have caused significant financial losses in Turkey, amounting to US$ 800 million between 1960 and 2014. With the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 (SFDRR), it is aimed to reduce the direct economic loss from disasters in relation to the global gross domestic product (GDP) by 2030. Accordingly, a methodology based on experiences from developing countries was proposed by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) to estimate direct economic losses on the macro-scale. Since Turkey also signed the SFDRR, we aimed to adapt, validate and apply the loss estimation model proposed by the UNDRR in Turkey for the first time. To do so, the well-documented flood event in Mersin of 2016 was used to calibrate the damage ratios for the agricultural, commercial and residential sectors, as well as educational facilities. Case studies between 2015 and 2020 with documented losses were further used to validate the model. Finally, model applications provided initial loss estimates for floods occurred recently in Turkey. Despite the limited event documentation for each sector, the calibrated model yielded good results when compared to documented losses. Thus, by implementing the UNDRR method, this study provides an approach to estimate the direct economic losses in Turkey on the macro-scale, which can be used to fill gaps in event databases, support the coordination of financial aid after flood events and facilitate monitoring of the progress toward and achievement of Global Target C of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030.
Heat waves are increasingly common in many countries across the globe, and also in Germany, where this study is set. Heat poses severe health risks, especially for vulnerable groups such as the elderly and children. This case study explores visitors' behavior and perceptions during six weekends in the summer of 2018 at a 6-month open-air horticultural show. Data from a face-to-face survey (n = 306) and behavioral observations ( n = 2750) were examined by using correlation analyses, ANOVA, and multiple regression analyses. Differences in weather perception, risk awareness, adaptive behavior, and activity level were observed between rainy days (maximum daily temperature, 25 degrees C), warmsummer days (25 degrees-30 degrees C), and hot days (>30 degrees C). Respondents reported a high level of heat risk awareness, butmost (90%) were unaware of actual heat warnings. During hot days, more adaptive measures were reported and observed. Older respondents reported taking the highest number of adaptive measures. We observed the highest level of adaptation in children, but they also showed the highest activity level. From our results we discuss how to facilitate individual adaptation to heat stress at open-air events by taking the heterogeneity of visitors into account. To mitigate negative health outcomes for citizens in the future, we argue for tailored risk communication aimed at vulnerable groups. <br /> SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: People around the world are facing higher average temperatures. While higher temperatures make open-air events a popular leisure time activity in summer, heat waves are a threat to health and life. Since there is not much research on how visitors of such events perceive different weather conditions-especially hot temperatures-we explored this in our case study in southern Germany at an open-air horticultural show in the summer of 2018. We discovered deficits both in people's awareness of current heat risk and the heat adaptation they carry out themselves. Future research should further investigate risk perception and adaptation behavior of private individuals, whereas event organizers and authorities need to continually focus on risk communication and facilitate individual adaptation of their visitors.
Flood loss data collection and modeling are not standardized, and previous work has indicated that losses from different flood types (e.g., riverine and groundwater) may follow different driving forces. However, different flood types may occur within a single flood event, which is known as a compound flood event. Therefore, we aimed to identify statistical similarities between loss-driving factors across flood types and test whether the corresponding losses should be modeled separately. In this study, we used empirical data from 4,418 respondents from four survey campaigns studying households in Germany that experienced flooding. These surveys sought to investigate several features of the impact process (hazard, socioeconomic, preparedness, and building characteristics, as well as flood type). While the level of most of these features differed across flood type subsamples (e.g., degree of preparedness), they did so in a nonregular pattern. A variable selection process indicates that besides hazard and building characteristics, information on property-level preparedness was also selected as a relevant predictor of the loss ratio. These variables represent information, which is rarely adopted in loss modeling. Models shall be refined with further data collection and other statistical methods. To save costs, data collection efforts should be steered toward the most relevant predictors to enhance data availability and increase the statistical power of results. Understanding that losses from different flood types are driven by different factors is a crucial step toward targeted data collection and model development and will finally clarify conditions that allow us to transfer loss models in space and time. <br /> Key Points <br /> Survey data of flood-affected households show different concurrent flood types, undermining the use of a single-flood-type loss model Thirteen variables addressing flood hazard, the building, and property level preparedness are significant predictors of the building loss ratio Flood type-specific models show varying significance across the predictor variables, indicating a hindrance to model transferability
Insights into the dynamics of human behavior in response to flooding are urgently needed for the development of effective integrated flood risk management strategies, and for integrating human behavior in flood risk modeling. However, our understanding of the dynamics of risk perceptions, attitudes, individual recovery processes, as well as adaptive (i.e., risk reducing) intention and behavior are currently limited because of the predominant use of cross-sectional surveys in the flood risk domain. Here, we present the results from one of the first panel surveys in the flood risk domain covering a relatively long period of time (i.e., four years after a damaging event), three survey waves, and a wide range of topics relevant to the role of citizens in integrated flood risk management. The panel data, consisting of 227 individuals affected by the 2013 flood in Germany, were analyzed using repeated-measures ANOVA and latent class growth analysis (LCGA) to utilize the unique temporal dimension of the data set. Results show that attitudes, such as the respondents' perceived responsibility within flood risk management, remain fairly stable over time. Changes are observed partly for risk perceptions and mainly for individual recovery and intentions to undertake risk-reducing measures. LCGA reveal heterogeneous recovery and adaptation trajectories that need to be taken into account in policies supporting individual recovery and stimulating societal preparedness. More panel studies in the flood risk domain are needed to gain better insights into the dynamics of individual recovery, risk-reducing behavior, and associated risk and protective factors.
The most severe flood events in Turkey were determined for the period 1960-2014 by considering the number of fatalities, the number of affected people, and the total economic losses as indicators. The potential triggering mechanisms (i.e., atmospheric circulations and precipitation amounts) and aggravating pathways (i.e., topographic features, catchment size, land use types, and soil properties) of these 25 events were analyzed. On this basis, a new approach was developed to identify the main influencing factor per event and to provide additional information for determining the dominant flood occurrence pathways for severe floods. The events were then classified through hierarchical cluster analysis. As a result, six different clusters were found and characterized. Cluster 1 comprised flood events that were mainly influenced by drainage characteristics (e.g., catchment size and shape); Cluster 2 comprised events aggravated predominantly by urbanization; steep topography was identified to be the dominant factor for Cluster 3; extreme rainfall was determined as the main triggering factor for Cluster 4; saturated soil conditions were found to be the dominant factor for Cluster 5; and orographic effects of mountain ranges characterized Cluster 6. This study determined pathway patterns of the severe floods in Turkey with regard to their main causal or aggravating mechanisms. Accordingly, geomorphological properties are of major importance in large catchments in eastern and northeastern Anatolia. In addition, in small catchments, the share of urbanized area seems to be an important factor for the extent of flood impacts. This paper presents an outcome that could be used for future urban planning and flood risk prevention studies to understand the flood mechanisms in different regions of Turkey.
Städte sind aufgrund ihrer Agglomeration von Bevölkerung, Sachwerten und Infrastrukturen in besonderem Maße von extremen Wetterereignissen wie Starkregen und Hitze betroffen. Zahlreiche Überflutungsereignisse infolge von Starkregen traten in den letzten Jahren in verschiedenen Regionen Deutschlands auf und führten nicht nur zu Schäden in zwei- bis dreistelliger Millionenhöhe, sondern auch zu Todesopfern. Und auch Hitzewellen, wie sie in den vergangenen Jahren vermehrt aufgetreten sind, bergen gesundheitliche Risiken, welche sich auch in verschiedenen Schätzungen zu Hitzetodesfällen wiederfinden.
Um diesen Risiken zu begegnen und Schäden infolge von Wetterextremen zu reduzieren, entwickeln viele Kommunen bereits Strategien und Konzepte im Kontext der Klimaanpassung und/oder setzen Anpassungsmaßnahmen um. Neben der Entwicklung und Umsetzung eigener Ideen orientieren sich Städte dabei u. a. an Leitfäden und Beispielen aus der Literatur, Erfahrungen aus anderen Städten oder an Ergebnissen aus Forschungsprojekten. Dieser Lern- und Transferprozess, der eine Übertragung von Maßnahmen oder Instrumenten der Klimaanpassung von einem Ort auf einen anderen beinhaltet, ist bislang noch unzureichend erforscht und verstanden.
Der vorliegende Bericht untersucht deshalb ebendiesen Lern- und Transferprozess zwischen sowie innerhalb von Städten sowie das Transferpotenzial konkreter Wissenstransfer-Medien, Instrumente und Maßnahmen. Damit wird das Ziel verfolgt, ein besseres Verständnis dieser Prozesse zu entwickeln und einen Beitrag zur Verbesserung des Transfers von kommunalen Klimaanpassungsaktivitäten zu leisten. Der vorliegende Inhalt baut dabei auf einer vorangegangenen Analyse des Forschungsstands zum Transfer von Policies durch Haupt et al. (2021) auf und versucht, den bereits generierten Wissensstand auf der Ebene von Policies nun um die Ebene konkreter Instrumente und Maßnahmen zu ergänzen sowie durch empirische Befunde zu ausgewählten Maßnahmen zu untermauern. Die Wissens- und Datengrundlage dieses Berichts umfasst einen Mix aus verschiedenen (Online)-Befragungen und Interviews mit Vertreter:innen relevanter Akteursgruppen, vor allem Vertreter:innen von Stadtverwaltungen, sowie den Erfahrungswerten der drei ExTrass-Fallstudienstädte Potsdam, Remscheid und Würzburg.
Nach einer Einleitung beschäftigt sich Kapitel 2 mit übergeordneten Faktoren der Übertragbarkeit bzw. des Transfers. Kapitel 2.1 bietet hierbei eine Zusammenfassung zum aktuellen Wissensstand hinsichtlich des Transfers von Policies im Bereich der städtischen Klimapolitik gemäß Haupt et al. (2021). Hier werden zentrale Kriterien für einen erfolgreichen Transfer herausgearbeitet, um einen Anknüpfungspunkt für die folgenden Inhalte und empirischen Befunde auf der Ebene konkreter Instrumente und Maßnahmen zu bieten. Kapitel 2.2 schließt hieran an und präsentiert Erkenntnisse aus einer weitreichenden Kommunalbefragung. Hierbei wurde untersucht ob und welche Klimaanpassungsmaßnahmen in den Städten bereits umgesetzt werden, welche fördernden und hemmenden Aspekte es dabei gibt und welche Erfahrungen beim Transfer von Wissen und Ideen bereits vorliegen.
Kapitel 3 untersucht die Rolle verschiedener Medien des Wissenstransfers und widmet sich dabei beispielhaft Leitfäden zur Klimaanpassung und Maßnahmensteckbriefen. Kapitel 3.1 beantwortet dabei Fragen nach der Relevanz und Zugänglichkeit von Leitfäden, deren Stärken und Schwächen, sowie konkreten Anforderungen vonseiten befragter Personen. Außerdem werden acht ausgewählte Leitfäden vorgestellt und komprimiert auf ihre Transferpotenziale hin eingeschätzt. Kapitel 3.2 betrachtet Maßnahmensteckbriefe als Medien des Wissenstransfers und arbeitet zentrale Aspekte für einen praxisrelevanten inhaltlichen Aufbau heraus, um basierend darauf einen Muster-Maßnahmensteckbrief für Klimaanpassungsmaßnahmen zu entwickeln und vorzuschlagen.
Kapitel 4 beschäftigt sich mit sehr konkreten kommunalen Erfahrungen rund um den Transfer von sieben ausgewählten Instrumenten und Maßnahmen und bietet zahlreiche empirische Befunde aus den Kommunen, basierend auf der Kommunalbefragung, verschiedenen Interviews und den Erfahrungen aus der Projektarbeit. Die folgenden sieben Instrumente und Maßnahmen wurden ausgewählt, um eine große Breite städtischer Klimaanpassungsaktivitäten zu betrachten: 1) Klimafunktionskarten (Stadtklimakarten), 2) Starkregengefahrenkarten, 3) Checklisten zur Klimaanpassung in der Bauleitplanung, 4) Verbot von Schottergärten in Bebauungsplänen, 5) Fassadenbegrünungen, 6) klimaangepasste Gestaltung von Grün- und Freiflächen sowie 7) Handlungsempfehlungen für Betreuungseinrichtungen zum Umgang mit Hitze und Starkregen. Für jede dieser Klimaanpassungsaktivitäten wird auf Ebene der Kommunen Ziel, Verbreitung und Erscheinungsformen, Umsetzung anhand konkreter Beispiele, fördernde und hemmende Faktoren sowievorliegende Erfahrungen zu und Hinweisen auf Transfer dargestellt.
Kapitel 5 schließt den vorliegenden Bericht ab, indem zentrale Transfer-Barrieren aus den gewonnenen Erkenntnissen aufgegriffen und entsprechende Empfehlungen an verschiedene Ebenen der Politik ausgesprochen werden. Diese Empfehlungen zur Verbesserung des Transfers von klimaanpassungsrelevanten Instrumenten, Strategien und Maßnahmen umfassen 1) die Verbesserung des Austauschs zwischen verschiedenen Städten, 2) die Verbesserung der Zugänglichkeit von Wissen und Erfahrungen, 3) die Schaffung von Vernetzungsstrukturen innerhalb von Städten sowie 4) bestehende Wissenslücken zu schließen.
Die Autor:innen des vorliegenden Berichts hoffen, durch die vielfältigen Untersuchungsaspekte einen Beitrag zum besseren Verständnis der Lern- und Transferprozesse und zur Verbesserung des Transfers kommunaler Klimaanpassungsaktivitäten zu leisten.
Aufgrund der hohen Konzentration von Bevölkerung, ökonomischen Werten und Infrastrukturen können Städte stark von extremen Wetterereignissen getroffen werden. Insbesondere Hitzewellen und Überflutungen in Folge von Starkregen verursachen in Städten immense gesundheitliche und finanzielle Schäden. Um Schäden zu verringern oder gar zu vermeiden, ist es notwendig, entsprechende Vorsorge- und Klimaanpassungsmaßnahmen zu implementieren.
Im Projekt „Urbane Resilienz gegenüber extremen Wetterereignissen – Typologien und Transfer von Anpassungsstrategien in kleinen Großstädten und Mittelstädten” (ExTrass) lag der Fokus auf den beiden extremen Wetterereignissen Hitze und Starkregen sowie auf kleineren Großstädten (100.000 bis 500.000 Einwohner:innen) und kreisfreien Mittelstädten mit mehr als 50.000 Einwohner:innen. Im Projekt wurde die Stärkung der Klimaresilienz als Verbesserung der Fähigkeiten von Städten, aus vergangenen Ereignissen zu lernen sowie sich an antizipierte Gefahren anzupassen, verstanden. Klimaanpassung wurde demnach als ein Prozess aufgefasst, der durch die Umsetzung von potenziell schadensreduzierenden Maßnahmen beschreib- und operationalisierbar wird.
Das Projekt hatte zwei Ziele: Erstens sollte die Klimaresilienz in den drei Fallstudienstädten Potsdam, Remscheid und Würzburg messbar gestärkt werden. Zweitens sollten Transferpotenziale zwischen Groß- und Mittelstädten in Deutschland identifiziert und besser nutzbar gemacht werden, damit die Wirkung von Pilotvorhaben über die direkt involvierten Städte hinausgehen kann. Im Projekt standen folgende vier Leitfragen im Fokus:
• Wie verbreitet sind Klimaanpassungsaktivitäten in Großstädten und größeren kreisfreien Mittelstädten in Deutschland?
• Welche hemmenden und begünstigenden Faktoren beeinflussen die Klimaanpassung?
• Welche Maßnahmen der Klimaanpassung werden tatsächlich umgesetzt, und wie kann die Umsetzung verbessert werden? Was behindert?
• Inwiefern lassen sich Beispiele guter Praxis auf andere Städte übertragen, adaptieren oder weiterentwickeln?
Die Hauptergebnisse zu diesen Fragestellungen sind im vorliegenden Bericht zusammengefasst.