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Имеют ли церковь и религиозные объединения «политическую миссию» или только общественную задачу?
(2013)
Биографические мотивы условно можно разделить на два вида:
1. Отдельные небольшие эпизоды или впечатления, запомнившие-
ся Тарковскому, которые заняли свое точное место в его сценариях и
фильмах. Режиссер А. Гордон условно назвал этот прием Тарковского
«теорией пазлов». Такие элементы встречаются почти во всех фильмах
Андрея Тарковского.
2. Расширенное включение в фильмы автобиографии, естественно, не
во всей полноте. К таким фильмам относятся Зеркало (1974) и Offret
(«Жертвоприношение» – 1986).
1. Банковское право как отрасль права 2. Предмет, метод и система банковского права 3. Источники банковского права
Солярис как процесс
(2016)
Имеют ли церкви или религиозные объединения «политическую миссию» или «только» общественную задачу?
(2013)
1 Международное право прав человека 2 Право международной безопасности
Тексты Литература
Vom 18. bis 20. September 2014 versammelten sich an der Universität Potsdam kultur- und filmwissenschaftlich arbeitende Wissenschaftler zu einem Andrej Tarkovskij gewidmeten Symposium, dem ersten internationalen. Die 25 Teilnehmer kamen nämlich aus neun Ländern. Dadurch, dass nicht wenige auch eine – wie man heute sagt – „Migrationsbiographie“ haben, potenzierte sich die durch die jeweils unterschiedliche Herkunft bedingte Multiperspektivik, zu der jedoch der Modus der Wissenschaftlichkeit ein deutlich relativierendes Korrektiv bildet. Der vorliegende Band enthält im Wesentlichen die dort vorgestellten Beiträge, aber auch die der Fachleute, die nicht persönlich hatten nach Potsdam kommen können.
Значимость и понимание прав человека в мышлении католической и евангелическоп церквей Германии
(2013)
«Симфония властей»
(2013)
О новых истоках кино
(2016)
Идеальный шашлык
(2014)
1. Предмет международного частного права 2. Понятие международного частного права 3. Развитие МЧП 4. Содержание МЧП 5. Источники МЧП 6. Коллизионные нормы 7. Обратная отсылка и отсылка к праву третьего государства (renvoi) 8. Проблема квалификации в МЧП 9. Применение иностранного права, установление содержания иностранного права 10. Оговорка о публичном порядке 11. Императивные нормы 12. Основные коллизионные принципы
Блуждающие цитаты
(2016)
On doubling unconditionals
(2019)
Ökonomen wie Wirtschaftspolitiker berufen sich auf die Neutralitätstheorie des Geldes, wenn sie eine Entpolitisierung der Geldpolitik fordern. Sowohl die Theorie der Geldneutralität als auch das Paradigma der Entpolitisierung der Geldpolitik sind jedoch problematisch. Die politökonomischen Entwicklungen nach der globalen Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise 2007/2008 und die jüngsten Kontroversen über die Rolle und Bedeutung von Geld haben dies deutlich vor Augen geführt. Die vorliegende Arbeit diskutiert zunächst die konzeptionellen Grundlagen und theoretischen Modelle der Geldneutralität. Anschließend werden die zentralen theoretischen Annahmen und Aussagen der Neutralitätstheorie aus einer kritischen heterodoxen Perspektive hinterfragt. Es wird argumentiert, dass Geld eine nicht-neutrale Produktionskraft ist, die weder ökonomisch noch sozial neutral ist. Die Bedingungen, unter denen Geld verfügbar ist und zirkuliert, sind richtungsweisend für die ökonomische Entwicklung. Daher kann es auch kein neutrales Geld oder gar eine apolitische Geldpolitik geben.
Die vorliegende Arbeit untersucht die Politik der Zentralbankunabhängigkeit (ZBU) am Beispiel der Türkei. Im Mittelpunkt der Arbeit stehen theoretische und empirische Fragen und Probleme, die sich im Zusammenhang mit der ZBU stellen und anhand der türkischen Geldpolitik diskutiert werden. Ein zentrales Ziel der Arbeit besteht darin, zu untersuchen, ob und inwiefern die türkische Zentralbank nach Erlangung der de jure institutionellen Unabhängigkeit tatsächlich als unabhängig und entpolitisiert eingestuft werden kann. Um diese Forschungsfrage zu beantworten, werden die institutionellen Bedingungen, die Ziele und die Regeln, nach denen sich die türkische Geldpolitik richtet, geklärt. Anschließend wird empirisch überprüft, ob die geldpolitische Praxis der CBRT sich an dem offiziell vorgegebenen Regelwerk orientiert. Die Hauptthese dieser Arbeit lautet, dass die formelle Unabhängigkeit der CBRT und die regelorientierte Geldpolitik nicht mit einer Entpolitisierung der Geldpolitik in der Türkei gleichzusetzen ist. Als Alternative schlägt die vorliegende Studie vor, den institutionellen Status der CBRT als einen der relativen Autonomie zu untersuchen. Auch eine de jure unabhängige Zentralbank kann sich nicht von politischen Eingriffen abkoppeln, wie das Fallbeispiel Türkei zeigen wird.
Ökonomen wie Wirtschaftspolitiker berufen sich auf die Neutralitätstheorie des Geldes, wenn sie eine Entpolitisierung der Geldpolitik fordern. Sowohl die Theorie der Geldneutralität als auch das Paradigma der Entpolitisierung der Geldpolitik sind jedoch problematisch. Die politökonomischen Entwicklungen nach der globalen Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise 2007/2008 und die jüngsten Kontroversen über die Rolle und Bedeutung von Geld haben dies deutlich vor Augen geführt. Die vorliegende Arbeit diskutiert zunächst die konzeptionellen Grundlagen und theoretischen Modelle der Geldneutralität. Anschließend werden die zentralen theoretischen Annahmen und Aussagen der Neutralitätstheorie aus einer kritischen heterodoxen Perspektive hinterfragt. Es wird argumentiert, dass Geld eine nicht-neutrale Produktionskraft ist, die weder ökonomisch noch sozial neutral ist. Die Bedingungen, unter denen Geld verfügbar ist und zirkuliert, sind richtungsweisend für die ökonomische Entwicklung. Daher kann es auch kein neutrales Geld oder gar eine apolitische Geldpolitik geben.
Recent advances in single particle tracking and supercomputing techniques demonstrate the emergence of normal or anomalous, viscoelastic diffusion in conjunction with non-Gaussian distributions in soft, biological, and active matter systems. We here formulate a stochastic model based on a generalised Langevin equation in which non-Gaussian shapes of the probability density function and normal or anomalous diffusion have a common origin, namely a random parametrisation of the stochastic force. We perform a detailed analysis demonstrating how various types of parameter distributions for the memory kernel result in exponential, power law, or power-log law tails of the memory functions. The studied system is also shown to exhibit a further unusual property: the velocity has a Gaussian one point probability density but non-Gaussian joint distributions. This behaviour is reflected in the relaxation from a Gaussian to a non-Gaussian distribution observed for the position variable. We show that our theoretical results are in excellent agreement with stochastic simulations.
Recent advances in single particle tracking and supercomputing techniques demonstrate the emergence of normal or anomalous, viscoelastic diffusion in conjunction with non-Gaussian distributions in soft, biological, and active matter systems. We here formulate a stochastic model based on a generalised Langevin equation in which non-Gaussian shapes of the probability density function and normal or anomalous diffusion have a common origin, namely a random parametrisation of the stochastic force. We perform a detailed analysis demonstrating how various types of parameter distributions for the memory kernel result in exponential, power law, or power-log law tails of the memory functions. The studied system is also shown to exhibit a further unusual property: the velocity has a Gaussian one point probability density but non-Gaussian joint distributions. This behaviour is reflected in the relaxation from a Gaussian to a non-Gaussian distribution observed for the position variable. We show that our theoretical results are in excellent agreement with stochastic simulations.
Background:
Plant phenotypic data shrouds a wealth of information which, when accurately analysed and linked
to other data types, brings to light the knowledge about the mechanisms of life. As phenotyping is a field of research
comprising manifold, diverse and time
‑consuming experiments, the findings can be fostered by reusing and combin‑
ing existing datasets. Their correct interpretation, and thus replicability, comparability and interoperability, is possible
provided that the collected observations are equipped with an adequate set of metadata. So far there have been no
common standards governing phenotypic data description, which hampered data exchange and reuse.
Results:
In this paper we propose the guidelines for proper handling of the information about plant phenotyping
experiments, in terms of both the recommended content of the description and its formatting. We provide a docu‑
ment called “Minimum Information About a Plant Phenotyping Experiment”, which specifies what information about
each experiment should be given, and a Phenotyping Configuration for the ISA
‑Tab format, which allows to practically
organise this information within a dataset. We provide examples of ISA
‑Tab
‑formatted phenotypic data, and a general
description of a few systems where the recommendations have been implemented.
Conclusions:
Acceptance of the rules described in this paper by the plant phenotyping community will help to
achieve findable, accessible, interoperable and reusable data.
XopJ is a Xanthomonas type III effector protein that promotes bacterial virulence on susceptible pepper plants through the inhibition of the host cell proteasome and a resultant suppression of salicylic acid (SA) - dependent defense responses. We show here that Nicotiana benthamiana leaves transiently expressing XopJ display hypersensitive response (HR) -like symptoms when exogenously treated with SA. This apparent avirulence function of XopJ was further dependent on effector myristoylation as well as on an intact catalytic triad, suggesting a requirement of its enzymatic activity for HR-like symptom elicitation. The ability of XopJ to cause a HR-like symptom development upon SA treatment was lost upon silencing of SGT1 and NDR1, respectively, but was independent of EDS1 silencing, suggesting that XopJ is recognized by an R protein of the CC-NBS-LRR class. Furthermore, silencing of NPR1 abolished the elicitation of HR-like symptoms in XopJ expressing leaves after SA application. Measurement of the proteasome activity indicated that proteasome inhibition by XopJ was alleviated in the presence of SA, an effect that was not observed in NPR1 silenced plants. Our results suggest that XopJ - triggered HR-like symptoms are closely related to the virulence function of the effector and that XopJ follows a two-signal model in order to elicit a response in the non-host plant N. benthamiana.
XopJ is a Xanthomonas type III effector protein that promotes bacterial virulence on susceptible pepper plants through the inhibition of the host cell proteasome and a resultant suppression of salicylic acid (SA) - dependent defense responses. We show here that Nicotiana benthamiana leaves transiently expressing XopJ display hypersensitive response (HR) -like symptoms when exogenously treated with SA. This apparent avirulence function of XopJ was further dependent on effector myristoylation as well as on an intact catalytic triad, suggesting a requirement of its enzymatic activity for HR-like symptom elicitation. The ability of XopJ to cause a HR-like symptom development upon SA treatment was lost upon silencing of SGT1 and NDR1, respectively, but was independent of EDS1 silencing, suggesting that XopJ is recognized by an R protein of the CC-NBS-LRR class. Furthermore, silencing of NPR1 abolished the elicitation of HR-like symptoms in XopJ expressing leaves after SA application. Measurement of the proteasome activity indicated that proteasome inhibition by XopJ was alleviated in the presence of SA, an effect that was not observed in NPR1 silenced plants. Our results suggest that XopJ - triggered HR-like symptoms are closely related to the virulence function of the effector and that XopJ follows a two-signal model in order to elicit a response in the non-host plant N. benthamiana.
Landslides are frequent natural hazards in rugged terrain, when the resisting frictional force of the surface of rupture yields to the gravitational force. These forces are functions of geological and morphological factors, such as angle of internal friction, local slope gradient or curvature, which remain static over hundreds of years; whereas more dynamic triggering events, such as rainfall and earthquakes, compromise the force balance by temporarily reducing resisting forces or adding transient loads. This thesis investigates landslide distribution and orientation due to landslide triggers (e.g. rainfall) at different scales (6-4∙10^5 km^2) and aims to link rainfall movement with the landslide distribution. It additionally explores the local impacts of the extreme rainstorms on landsliding and the role of precursory stability conditions that could be induced by an earlier trigger, such as an earthquake.
Extreme rainfall is a common landslide trigger. Although several studies assessed rainfall intensity and duration to study the distribution of thus triggered landslides, only a few case studies quantified spatial rainfall patterns (i.e. orographic effect). Quantifying the regional trajectories of extreme rainfall could aid predicting landslide prone regions in Japan. To this end, I combined a non-linear correlation metric, namely event synchronization, and radial statistics to assess the general pattern of extreme rainfall tracks over distances of hundreds of kilometers using satellite based rainfall estimates. Results showed that, although the increase in rainfall intensity and duration positively correlates with landslide occurrence, the trajectories of typhoons and frontal storms were insufficient to explain landslide distribution in Japan. Extreme rainfall trajectories inclined northwestwards and were concentrated along some certain locations, such as coastlines of southern Japan, which was unnoticed in the landslide distribution of about 5000 rainfall-triggered landslides. These landslides seemed to respond to the mean annual rainfall rates.
Above mentioned findings suggest further investigation on a more local scale to better understand the mechanistic response of landscape to extreme rainfall in terms of landslides. On May 2016 intense rainfall struck southern Germany triggering high waters and landslides. The highest damage was reported at the Braunsbach, which is located on the tributary-mouth fan formed by the Orlacher Bach. Orlacher Bach is a ~3 km long creek that drains a catchment of about ~6 km^2. I visited this catchment in June 2016 and mapped 48 landslides along the creek. Such high landslide activity was not reported in the nearby catchments within ~3300 km^2, despite similar rainfall intensity and duration based on weather radar estimates. My hypothesis was that several landslides were triggered by rainfall-triggered flash floods that undercut hillslope toes along the Orlacher Bach. I found that morphometric features such as slope and curvature play an important role in landslide distribution on this micro scale study site (<10 km^2). In addition, the high number of landslides along the Orlacher Bach could also be boosted by accumulated damages on hillslopes due karst weathering over longer time scales.
Precursory damages on hillslopes could also be induced by past triggering events that effect landscape evolution, but this interaction is hard to assess independently from the latest trigger. For example, an earthquake might influence the evolution of a landscape decades long, besides its direct impacts, such as landslides that follow the earthquake. Here I studied the consequences of the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake (MW 7.1) that triggered some 1500 landslides in an area of ~4000 km^2 in central Kyushu, Japan. Topography, i.e. local slope and curvature, both amplified and attenuated seismic waves, thus controlling the failure mechanism of those landslides (e.g. progressive). I found that topography fails in explaining the distribution and the preferred orientation of the landslides after the earthquake; instead the landslides were concentrated around the northeast of the rupture area and faced mostly normal to the rupture plane. This preferred location of the landslides was dominated mainly by the directivity effect of the strike-slip earthquake, which is the propagation of wave energy along the fault in the rupture direction; whereas amplitude variations of the seismic radiation altered the preferred orientation. I suspect that the earthquake directivity and the asymmetry of seismic radiation damaged hillslopes at those preferred locations increasing landslide susceptibility. Hence a future weak triggering event, e.g. scattered rainfall, could further trigger landslides at those damaged hillslopes.
Mit der Liberalisierung des Strommarkts, den unsicheren Aussichten in der Klimapolitik und stark schwankenden Preisen bei Brennstoffen, Emissionsrechten und Kraftwerkskomponenten hat bei Kraftwerksinvestitionen das Risikomanagement an Bedeutung gewonnen. Dies äußert sich im vermehrten Einsatz probabilistischer Verfahren. Insbesondere bei regulativen Risiken liefert der klassische, häufigkeitsbasierte Wahrscheinlichkeitsbegriff aber keine Handhabe zur Risikoquantifizierung. In dieser Arbeit werden Kraftwerksinvestitionen und -portfolien in Deutschland mit Methoden des Bayes'schen Risikomanagements bewertet. Die Bayes'sche Denkschule begreift Wahrscheinlichkeit als persönliches Maß für Unsicherheit. Wahrscheinlichkeiten können auch ohne statistische Datenanalyse allein mit Expertenbefragungen gewonnen werden. Das Zusammenwirken unsicherer Werttreiber wurde mit einem probabilistischen DCF-Modell (Discounted Cash Flow-Modell) spezifiziert und in ein Einflussdiagramm mit etwa 1200 Objekten umgesetzt. Da der Überwälzungsgrad von Brennstoff- und CO2-Kosten und damit die Höhe der von den Kraftwerken erwirtschafteten Deckungsbeiträge im Wettbewerb bestimmt werden, reicht eine einzelwirtschaftliche Betrachtung der Kraftwerke nicht aus. Strompreise und Auslastungen werden mit Heuristiken anhand der individuellen Position der Kraftwerke in der Merit Order bestimmt, d.h. anhand der nach kurzfristigen Grenzkosten gestaffelten Einsatzreihenfolge. Dazu wurden 113 thermische Großkraftwerke aus Deutschland in einer Merit Order vereinigt. Das Modell liefert Wahrscheinlichkeitsverteilungen für zentrale Größen wie Kapitalwerte von Bestandsportfolien sowie Stromgestehungskosten und Kapitalwerte von Einzelinvestitionen (Steinkohle- und Braunkohlekraftwerke mit und ohne CO2-Abscheidung sowie GuD-Kraftwerke). Der Wert der Bestandsportfolien von RWE, E.ON, EnBW und Vattenfall wird primär durch die Beiträge der Braunkohle- und Atomkraftwerke bestimmt. Erstaunlicherweise schlägt sich der Emissionshandel nicht in Verlusten nieder. Dies liegt einerseits an den Zusatzgewinnen der Atomkraftwerke, andererseits an den bis 2012 gratis zugeteilten Emissionsrechten, welche hohe Windfall-Profite generieren. Dadurch erweist sich der Emissionshandel in seiner konkreten Ausgestaltung insgesamt als gewinnbringendes Geschäft. Über die Restlaufzeit der Bestandskraftwerke resultiert ab 2008 aus der Einführung des Emissionshandels ein Barwertvorteil von insgesamt 8,6 Mrd. €. In ähnlicher Dimension liegen die Barwertvorteile aus der 2009 von der Bundesregierung in Aussicht gestellten Laufzeitverlängerung für Atomkraftwerke. Bei einer achtjährigen Laufzeitverlängerung ergäben sich je nach CO2-Preisniveau Barwertvorteile von 8 bis 15 Mrd. €. Mit höheren CO2-Preisen und Laufzeitverlängerungen von bis zu 28 Jahren würden 25 Mrd. € oder mehr zusätzlich anfallen. Langfristig erscheint fraglich, ob unter dem gegenwärtigen Marktdesign noch Anreize für Investitionen in fossile Kraftwerke gegeben sind. Zu Beginn der NAP 2-Periode noch rentable Investitionen in Braunkohle- und GuD-Kraftwerke werden mit der auslaufenden Gratiszuteilung von Emissionsrechten zunehmend unrentabler. Die Rentabilität wird durch Strommarkteffekte der erneuerbaren Energien und ausscheidender alter Gas- und Ölkraftwerke stetig weiter untergraben. Steinkohlekraftwerke erweisen sich selbst mit anfänglicher Gratiszuteilung als riskante Investition. Die festgestellten Anreizprobleme für Neuinvestitionen sollten jedoch nicht dem Emissionshandel zugeschrieben werden, sondern resultieren aus den an Grenzkosten orientierten Strompreisen. Das Anreizproblem ist allerdings bei moderaten CO2-Preisen am größten. Es gilt auch für Kraftwerke mit CO2-Abscheidung: Obwohl die erwarteten Vermeidungskosten für CCS-Kraftwerke gegenüber konventionellen Kohlekraftwerken im Jahr 2025 auf 25 €/t CO2 (Braunkohle) bzw. 38,5 €/t CO2 (Steinkohle) geschätzt werden, wird ihr Bau erst ab CO2-Preisen von 50 bzw. 77 €/t CO2 rentabel. Ob und welche Kraftwerksinvestitionen sich langfristig rechnen, wird letztlich aber politisch entschieden und ist selbst unter stark idealisierten Bedingungen kaum vorhersagbar.
Inhalt: 1. Einleitung: Militärische Eliten und Freimaurerei 2. Vereinbarkeit der Werte 3. Der Siebenjährige Krieg als Katalysator freimaurerischer Aktivitäten in Europa 4. Die schwedische Armeeloge 1761-1788 5. Aktivitäten der Armeeloge und ihrer schwedisch-pommerschen Tochterlogen 6. Zur Kompatibilität militärischer Eliten und der Freimaurerei
The Sun is a star, which due to its proximity has a tremendous influence on Earth. Since its very first days mankind tried to "understand the Sun", and especially in the 20th century science has uncovered many of the Sun's secrets by using high resolution observations and describing the Sun by means of models. As an active star the Sun's activity, as expressed in its magnetic cycle, is closely related to the sunspot numbers. Flares play a special role, because they release large energies on very short time scales. They are correlated with enhanced electromagnetic emissions all over the spectrum. Furthermore, flares are sources of energetic particles. Hard X-ray observations (e.g., by NASA's RHESSI spacecraft) reveal that a large fraction of the energy released during a flare is transferred into the kinetic energy of electrons. However the mechanism that accelerates a large number of electrons to high energies (beyond 20 keV) within fractions of a second is not understood yet. The thesis at hand presents a model for the generation of energetic electrons during flares that explains the electron acceleration based on real parameters obtained by real ground and space based observations. According to this model photospheric plasma flows build up electric potentials in the active regions in the photosphere. Usually these electric potentials are associated with electric currents closed within the photosphere. However as a result of magnetic reconnection, a magnetic connection between the regions of different magnetic polarity on the photosphere can establish through the corona. Due to the significantly higher electric conductivity in the corona, the photospheric electric power supply can be closed via the corona. Subsequently a high electric current is formed, which leads to the generation of hard X-ray radiation in the dense chromosphere. The previously described idea is modelled and investigated by means of electric circuits. For this the microscopic plasma parameters, the magnetic field geometry and hard X-ray observations are used to obtain parameters for modelling macroscopic electric components, such as electric resistors, which are connected with each other. This model demonstrates that such a coronal electric current is correlated with large scale electric fields, which can accelerate the electrons quickly up to relativistic energies. The results of these calculations are encouraging. The electron fluxes predicted by the model are in agreement with the electron fluxes deduced from the measured photon fluxes. Additionally the model developed in this thesis proposes a new way to understand the observed double footpoint hard X-ray sources.
We develop a method of finding analytical sotutions of the Bogolyubov-de Gennes equations for the excitations of a Bose condensate in the Thomas-Fermi regime in harmonic traps of any asymmetry and introduce a classification of eigenstates. In the case of cylindrical symmetry we emphasize the presence of an accidental degeneracy in the excitation spectrum at certain values of the projection of orbital angular momentum on the symmetry axis and discuss possible consequences of the degeneracy in the context of new signatures of Bose- Einstein condensation
Content: 1. Introduction 2. Early Examples of the AFP in Hiberno-English 3. Assessments of the Evidence 4. Attempts to Explain the Early HE Construction 5. Distribution and Function of the AFP in EMI and HE 5.1. The AFP with the Future Tense in Irish 5.2. The AFP with the Secondary Future or Conditional 5.3. The AFP with the Subjunctive 5.5. Functions of the AFP in Early Modern Irish and HE 6. The Restriction of the AFP to the Recent Perfect 7. Conclusions
Heutzutage ist es üblich, die Ehre als einen obsoleten Begriff zu betrachten, der nur einem archaischen Denkmodell zuzuordnen ist und keine handlungsprägende Größe in der Gegenwartsgesellschaft darstellt. Die Ehrenmorde, die heute noch in unterschiedlichen Teilen der Welt verübt werden, scheinen diese Behauptung zu bestätigen. In diesem Buch wird jedoch die These vertreten, dass nicht der Ehrbegriff, sondern seine Deutungen archaischer Natur und daher in Frage zu stellen sind. Die Ehre ist die Bezeichnung des sozialen Werts eines Menschen, den er infolge seiner achtenswerten Handlungen erlangt. Also kann sie kein Motiv für moralisch fragwürdige Praktiken bilden. Vor diesem Hintergrund werden die Formen und die Voraussetzungen der Ehre dargestellt, die sowohl in Bezug auf unsere Zeit anpassungsfähig als auch ethisch tragbar sind.
Migration and development in Senegal : a system dynamics analysis of the feedback relationships
(2011)
This thesis investigates the reciprocal relationship between migration and development in Senegal. Therewith, it contributes to the debate as to whether migration in developing countries enhances or rather impedes the development process. Even though extensive and controversial discussions can be found in the scientific literature regarding the impact of migration on development, research has scarcely examined the feedback relationships between migration and development. Science however agrees with both the fact that migration affects development as well as that the level of development in a country determines migration behaviour. Thus, both variables are neither dependent nor independent, but endogenous variables influencing each other and producing behavioural pattern that cannot be investigated using a static and unidirectional approach. On account of this, the thesis studies the feedback mechanisms existing between migration and development and the behavioural pattern generated by the high interdependence in order to be able to draw conclusions concerning the impact of changes in migration behaviour on the development process. To explore these research questions, the study applies the computer simulation method ‘System Dynamics’ and amplifies the simulation model for national development planning called ‘Threshold 21’ (T21), representing development processes endogenously and integrating economic, social and environmental aspects, using a structure that portrays the reasons and consequences of migration. The model has been customised to Senegal, being an appropriate representative of the theoretical interesting universe of cases. The comparison of the model generated scenarios - in which the intensity of emigration, the loss and gain of education, the remittances or the level of dependence changes - facilitates the analysis. The present study produces two important results. The first outcome is the development of an integrative framework representing migration and development in an endogenous way and incorporating several aspects of different theories. This model can be used as a starting point for further discussions and improvements and it is a fairly relevant and useful result against the background that migration is not integrated into most of the development planning tools despite its significant impact. The second outcome is the gained insights concerning the feedback relations between migration and development and the impact of changes in migration on development. To give two examples: It could be found that migration impacts development positively, indicated by HDI, but that the dominant behaviour of migration and development is a counteracting behaviour. That means that an increase in emigration leads to an improvement in development, while this in turn causes a decline in emigration, counterbalancing the initial increase. Another insight concerns the discovery that migration causes a decline in education in the short term, but leads to an increase in the long term, after approximately 25 years - a typical worse-before-better behaviour. From these and further observations, important policy implications can be derived for the sending and receiving countries. Hence, by overcoming the unidirectional perspective, this study contributes to an improved understanding of the highly complex relationship between migration and development and their feedback relations.
The application of electrospray ionization (ESI) ion mobility (IM) spectrometry on the detection end of a high-performance liquid chromatograph has been a subject of study for some time. So far, this method has been limited to low flow rates or has required splitting of the liquid flow. This work presents a novel concept of an ESI source facilitating the stable operation of the spectrometer at flow rates between 10 mu L min(-1) and 1500 mu L min(-1) without flow splitting, advancing the T-cylinder design developed by Kurnin and co-workers. Flow rates eight times faster than previously reported were achieved because of a more efficient dispersion of the liquid at increased electrospray voltages combined with nebulization by a sheath gas. Imaging revealed the spray operation to be in a rotationally symmetric multijet-mode. The novel ESI-IM spectrometer tolerates high water contents (<= 90%) and electrolyte concentrations up to 10 mM, meeting another condition required of high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) detectors. Limits of detection of 50 nM for promazine in the positive mode and 1 mu M for 1,3-dinitrobenzene in the negative mode were established. Three mixtures of reduced complexity (five surfactants, four neuroleptics, and two isomers) were separated in the millisecond regime in stand-alone operation of the spectrometer. Separations of two more complex mixtures (five neuroleptics and 13 pesticides) demonstrate the application of the spectrometer as an HPLC detector. The examples illustrate the advantages of the spectrometer over the established diode array detector, in terms of additional IM separation of substances not fully separated in the retention time domain as well as identification of substances based on their characteristic IMs.
Die Elektrosprayionisation (ESI) ist eine der weitverbreitetsten Ionisationstechniken für flüssige Pro-ben in der Massen- und Ionenmobilitäts(IM)-Spektrometrie. Aufgrund ihrer schonenden Ionisierung wird ESI vorwiegend für empfindliche, komplexe Moleküle in der Biologie und Medizin eingesetzt. Überdies ist sie allerdings für ein sehr breites Spektrum an Substanzklassen anwendbar. Die IM-Spektrometrie wurde ursprünglich zur Detektion gasförmiger Proben entwickelt, die hauptsächlich durch radioaktive Quellen ionisiert werden. Sie ist die einzige analytische Methode, bei der Isomere in Echtzeit getrennt und über ihre charakteristische IM direkt identifiziert werden können. ESI wurde in den 90ger Jahren durch die Hill Gruppe in die IM-Spektrometrie eingeführt. Die Kombination wird bisher jedoch nur von wenigen Gruppen verwendet und hat deshalb noch ein hohes Entwick-lungspotential. Ein vielversprechendes Anwendungsfeld ist der Einsatz in der Hochleistungs-flüssigkeitschromatographie (HPLC) zur mehrdimensionalen Trennung. Heutzutage ist die HPLC die Standardmethode zur Trennung komplexer Proben in der Routineanalytik. HPLC-Trennungsgänge sind jedoch häufig langwierig und der Einsatz verschiedener Laufmittel, hoher Flussraten, von Puffern, sowie Laufmittelgradienten stellt hohe Anforderungen an die Detektoren. Die ESI-IM-Spektrometrie wurde in einigen Studien bereits als HPLC-Detektor eingesetzt, war dort bisher jedoch auf Flussratensplitting oder geringe Flussraten des Laufmittels beschränkt.
In dieser kumulativen Doktorarbeit konnte daher erstmals ein ESI IM-Spektrometer als HPLC-Detektor für den Flussratenbereich von 200-1500 μl/min entwickelt werden. Anhand von fünf Publi-kationen wurden (1) über eine umfassende Charakterisierung die Eignung des Spektrometers als HPLC-Detektor festgestellt, (2) ausgewählte komplexe Trenngänge präsentiert und (3) die Anwen-dung zum Reaktionsmonitoring und (4, 5) mögliche Weiterentwicklungen gezeigt.
Erfolgreich konnten mit dem selbst-entwickelten ESI IM-Spektrometer typische HPLC-Bedingungen wie Wassergehalte im Laufmittel von bis zu 90%, Pufferkonzentrationen von bis zu 10 mM, sowie Nachweisgrenzen von bis zu 50 nM erreicht werden. Weiterhin wurde anhand der komplexen Trennungsgänge (24 Pestizide/18 Aminosäuren) gezeigt, dass die HPLC und die IM-Spektrometrie eine hohe Orthogonalität besitzen. Eine effektive Peakkapazität von 240 wurde so realisiert. Auf der HPLC-Säule koeluierende Substanzen konnten über die Driftzeit getrennt und über ihre IM identifi-ziert werden, sodass die Gesamttrennzeiten erheblich minimiert werden konnten. Die Anwend-barkeit des ESI IM-Spektrometers zur Überwachung chemischer Synthesen wurde anhand einer dreistufigen Reaktion demonstriert. Es konnten die wichtigsten Edukte, Zwischenprodukte und Produkte aller Stufen identifiziert werden. Eine quantitative Auswertung war sowohl über eine kurze HPLC-Vortrennung als auch durch die Entwicklung eines eigenen Kalibrierverfahrens, welches die Ladungskonkurrenz bei ESI berücksichtigt, ohne HPLC möglich. Im zweiten Teil der Arbeit werden zwei Weiterentwicklungen des Spektrometers präsentiert. Eine Möglichkeit ist die Reduzierung des Drucks in den intermediären Bereich (300 - 1000 mbar) mit dem Ziel der Verringerung der benötigten Spannungen. Mithilfe von Streulichtbildern und Strom-Spannungs-Kurven wurden für geringe Drücke eine verminderte Freisetzung der Analyt-Ionen aus den Tropfen festgestellt. Die Verluste konnten jedoch über höhere elektrische Feldstärken ausgeglichen werden, sodass gleiche Nachweisgrenzen bei 500 mbar und bei 1 bar erreicht wurden. Die zweite Weiterentwicklung ist ein neuartiges Ionentors mit Pulsschaltung, welches eine Verdopplung der Auflösung auf bis zu R > 100 bei gleicher Sensitivität ermöglichte. Eine denkbare Anwendung im Bereich der Peptidanalytik wurde mit beachtlichen Auflösungen der Peptide von R = 90 gezeigt.
We show how the maximum magnitude within a predefined future time horizon may be estimated from an earthquake catalog within the context of Gutenberg-Richter statistics. The aim is to carry out a rigorous uncertainty assessment, and calculate precise confidence intervals based on an imposed level of confidence a. In detail, we present a model for the estimation of the maximum magnitude to occur in a time interval T-f in the future, given a complete earthquake catalog for a time period T in the past and, if available, paleoseismic events. For this goal, we solely assume that earthquakes follow a stationary Poisson process in time with unknown productivity Lambda and obey the Gutenberg-Richter law in magnitude domain with unknown b-value. The random variables. and b are estimated by means of Bayes theorem with noninformative prior distributions. Results based on synthetic catalogs and on retrospective calculations of historic catalogs from the highly active area of Japan and the low-seismicity, but high-risk region lower Rhine embayment (LRE) in Germany indicate that the estimated magnitudes are close to the true values. Finally, we discuss whether the techniques can be extended to meet the safety requirements for critical facilities such as nuclear power plants. For this aim, the maximum magnitude for all times has to be considered. In agreement with earlier work, we find that this parameter is not a useful quantity from the viewpoint of statistical inference.
Convergence of the frequency-magnitude distribution of global earthquakes - maybe in 200 years
(2013)
I study the ability to estimate the tail of the frequency-magnitude distribution of global earthquakes. While power-law scaling for small earthquakes is accepted by support of data, the tail remains speculative. In a recent study, Bell et al. (2013) claim that the frequency-magnitude distribution of global earthquakes converges to a tapered Pareto distribution. I show that this finding results from data fitting errors, namely from the biased maximum likelihood estimation of the corner magnitude theta in strongly undersampled models. In particular, the estimation of theta depends solely on the few largest events in the catalog. Taking this into account, I compare various state-of-the-art models for the global frequency-magnitude distribution. After discarding undersampled models, the remaining ones, including the unbounded Gutenberg-Richter distribution, perform all equally well and are, therefore, indistinguishable. Convergence to a specific distribution, if it ever takes place, requires about 200 years homogeneous recording of global seismicity, at least.
Die vorliegende Arbeit beschäftigt sich mit der Charakterisierung von Seismizität anhand von Erdbebenkatalogen. Es werden neue Verfahren der Datenanalyse entwickelt, die Aufschluss darüber geben sollen, ob der seismischen Dynamik ein stochastischer oder ein deterministischer Prozess zugrunde liegt und was daraus für die Vorhersagbarkeit starker Erdbeben folgt. Es wird gezeigt, dass seismisch aktive Regionen häufig durch nichtlinearen Determinismus gekennzeichent sind. Dies schließt zumindest die Möglichkeit einer Kurzzeitvorhersage ein. Das Auftreten seismischer Ruhe wird häufig als Vorläuferphaenomen für starke Erdbeben gedeutet. Es wird eine neue Methode präsentiert, die eine systematische raumzeitliche Kartierung seismischer Ruhephasen ermöglicht. Die statistische Signifikanz wird mit Hilfe des Konzeptes der Ersatzdaten bestimmt. Als Resultat erhält man deutliche Korrelationen zwischen seismischen Ruheperioden und starken Erdbeben. Gleichwohl ist die Signifikanz dafür nicht hoch genug, um eine Vorhersage im Sinne einer Aussage über den Ort, die Zeit und die Stärke eines zu erwartenden Hauptbebens zu ermöglichen.
The occurrence of earthquakes is characterized by a high degree of spatiotemporal complexity. Although numerous patterns, e.g. fore- and aftershock sequences, are well-known, the underlying mechanisms are not observable and thus not understood. Because the recurrence times of large earthquakes are usually decades or centuries, the number of such events in corresponding data sets is too small to draw conclusions with reasonable statistical significance. Therefore, the present study combines both, numerical modeling and analysis of real data in order to unveil the relationships between physical mechanisms and observational quantities. The key hypothesis is the validity of the so-called "critical point concept" for earthquakes, which assumes large earthquakes to occur as phase transitions in a spatially extended many-particle system, similar to percolation models. New concepts are developed to detect critical states in simulated and in natural data sets. The results indicate that important features of seismicity like the frequency-size distribution and the temporal clustering of earthquakes depend on frictional and structural fault parameters. In particular, the degree of quenched spatial disorder (the "roughness") of a fault zone determines whether large earthquakes occur quasiperiodically or more clustered. This illustrates the power of numerical models in order to identify regions in parameter space, which are relevant for natural seismicity. The critical point concept is verified for both, synthetic and natural seismicity, in terms of a critical state which precedes a large earthquake: a gradual roughening of the (unobservable) stress field leads to a scale-free (observable) frequency-size distribution. Furthermore, the growth of the spatial correlation length and the acceleration of the seismic energy release prior to large events is found. The predictive power of these precursors is, however, limited. Instead of forecasting time, location, and magnitude of individual events, a contribution to a broad multiparameter approach is encouraging.
Downscaling of microfluidic cell culture and detection devices for electrochemical monitoring has mostly focused on miniaturization of the microfluidic chips which are often designed for specific applications and therefore lack functional flexibility. We present a compact microfluidic cell culture and electrochemical analysis platform with in-built fluid handling and detection, enabling complete cell based assays comprising on-line electrode cleaning, sterilization, surface functionalization, cell seeding, cultivation and electrochemical real-time monitoring of cellular dynamics. To demonstrate the versatility and multifunctionality of the platform, we explored amperometric monitoring of intracellular redox activity in yeast (Saccharomyces cerevisiae) and detection of exocytotically released dopamine from rat pheochromocytoma cells (PC12). Electrochemical impedance spectroscopy was used in both applications for monitoring cell sedimentation and adhesion as well as proliferation in the case of PC12 cells. The influence of flow rate on the signal amplitude in the detection of redox metabolism as well as the effect of mechanical stimulation on dopamine release were demonstrated using the programmable fluid handling capability. The here presented platform is aimed at applications utilizing cell based assays, ranging from e.g. monitoring of drug effects in pharmacological studies, characterization of neural stem cell differentiation, and screening of genetically modified microorganisms to environmental monitoring.
The paper studies catalytic super-Brownian motion on the real line, where the branching rate is controlled by a catalyst. D. A. Dawson, K. Fleischmann and S. Roelly showed, for a broad class of catalysts, that, as for constant branching, the processes are absolutely continuous measures. This paper considers a class of catalysts, called moderate, which must satisfy a uniform boundedness condition and a condition controlling the degree of singularity---essentially that the mass of catalyst in small balls should (uniformly) be of order r^a, where a>0. The main result of this paper shows that for this class of catalysts there is a continuous density field for the process. Moreover the density is the unique solution (in law) of an appropriate SPDE.
The author considers the heat equation in dimension one with singular drift and inhomogeneous space-time white noise. In particular, the quadratic variation measure of the white noise is not required to be absolutely continuous w.r.t. the Lebesgue measure, neither in space nor in time. Under some assumptions the author gives statements on strong and weak existence as well as strong and weak uniqueness of continuous solutions.
The use of unilateral force under George W. Bush is not a new phenomenon in US foreign policy. As the author argues, it is merely a continuation of Bill Clinton’s foreign policy and is deeply rooted in both the foreign policy traditions of Jacksonianism and Wilsonianism. The analysis concludes that Clinton used unilateralist foreign policy with a 'smile' whereas the Bush administration uses it with an attitude.
Hysteresis in the pinning-depinning transitions of spiral waves rotating around a hole in a circular shaped two- dimensional excitable medium is studied both by use of the continuation software AUTO and by direct numerical integration of the reaction-diffusion equations for the FitzHugh-Nagumo model. In order to clarify the role of different factors in this phenomenon, a kinematical description is applied. It is found that the hysteresis phenomenon computed for the reaction-diffusion model can be reproduced qualitatively only when a nonlinear eikonal equation (i.e. velocity- curvature relationship) is assumed. However, to obtain quantitative agreement, the dispersion relation has to be taken into account.
Necrotrophic as well as saprophytic small-spored Altemaria (A.) species are annually responsible for major losses of agricultural products, such as cereal crops, associated with the contamination of food and feedstuff with potential health-endangering Altemaria toxins. Knowledge of the metabolic capabilities of different species-groups to form mycotoxins is of importance for a reliable risk assessment. 93 Altemaria strains belonging to the four species groups Alternaria tenuissima, A. arborescens, A. altemata, and A. infectoria were isolated from winter wheat kernels harvested from fields in Germany and Russia and incubated under equal conditions. Chemical analysis by means of an HPLC-MS/MS multi-Alternaria-toxin-method showed that 95% of all strains were able to form at least one of the targeted 17 non-host specific Altemaria toxins. Simultaneous production of up to 15 (modified) Altemaria toxins by members of the A. tenuissima, A. arborescens, A. altemata species-groups and up to seven toxins by A. infectoria strains was demonstrated. Overall tenuazonic acid was the most extensively formed mycotoxin followed by alternariol and alternariol mono methylether, whereas altertoxin I was the most frequently detected toxin. Sulfoconjugated modifications of alternariol, alternariol mono methylether, altenuisol and altenuene were frequently determined. Unknown perylene quinone derivatives were additionally detected. Strains of the species-group A. infectoria could be segregated from strains of the other three species-groups due to significantly lower toxin levels and the specific production of infectopyrone. Apart from infectopyrone, alterperylenol was also frequently produced by 95% of the A. infectoria strains. Neither by the concentration nor by the composition of the targeted Altemaria toxins a differentiation between the species-groups A. altemata, A. tenuissima and A. arborescens was possible.
Spotlight on the underdogs
(2017)
Alternaria (A.) is a genus of widespread fungi capable of producing numerous, possibly health-endangering Alternaria toxins (ATs), which are usually not the focus of attention. The formation of ATs depends on the species and complex interactions of various environmental factors and is not fully understood. In this study the influence of temperature (7 °C, 25 °C), substrate (rice, wheat kernels) and incubation time (4, 7, and 14 days) on the production of thirteen ATs and three sulfoconjugated ATs by three different Alternaria isolates from the species groups A. tenuissima and A. infectoria was determined. High-performance liquid chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry was used for quantification. Under nearly all conditions, tenuazonic acid was the most extensively produced toxin. At 25 °C and with increasing incubation time all toxins were formed in high amounts by the two A. tenuissima strains on both substrates with comparable mycotoxin profiles. However, for some of the toxins, stagnation or a decrease in production was observed from day 7 to 14. As opposed to the A. tenuissima strains, the A. infectoria strain only produced low amounts of ATs, but high concentrations of stemphyltoxin III. The results provide an essential insight into the quantitative in vitro AT formation under different environmental conditions, potentially transferable to different field and storage conditions
During hopping an early burst can be observed in the EMG from the soleus muscle starting about 45 ms after touch-down. It may be speculated that this early EMG burst is a stretch reflex response superimposed on activity from a supra-spinal origin. We hypothesised that if a stretch reflex indeed contributes to the early EMG burst, then advancing or delaying the touch-down without the subject's knowledge should similarly advance or delay the burst. This was indeed the case when touch-down was advanced or delayed by shifting the height of a programmable platform up or down between two hops and this resulted in a correspondent shift of the early EMG burst. Our second hypothesis was that the motor cortex contributes to the first EMG burst during hopping. If so, inhibition of the motor cortex would reduce the magnitude of the burst. By applying a low-intensity magnetic stimulus it was possible to inhibit the motor cortex and this resulted in a suppression of the early EMG burst. These results suggest that sensory feedback and descending drive from the motor cortex are integrated to drive the motor neuron pool during the early EMG burst in hopping. Thus, simple reflexes work in concert with higher order structures to produce this repetitive movement.
Unlike for other retroviruses, only a few host cell factors that aid the replication of foamy viruses (FVs) via interaction with viral structural components are known. Using a yeast-two-hybrid (Y2H) screen with prototype FV (PFV) Gag protein as bait we identified human polo-like kinase 2 (hPLK2), a member of cell cycle regulatory kinases, as a new interactor of PFV capsids. Further Y2H studies confirmed interaction of PFV Gag with several PLKs of both human and rat origin. A consensus Ser-Thr/Ser-Pro (S-T/S-P) motif in Gag, which is conserved among primate FVs and phosphorylated in PFV virions, was essential for recognition by PLKs. In the case of rat PLK2, functional kinase and polo-box domains were required for interaction with PFV Gag. Fluorescently-tagged PFV Gag, through its chromatin tethering function, selectively relocalized ectopically expressed eGFP-tagged PLK proteins to mitotic chromosomes in a Gag STP motif-dependent manner, confirming a specific and dominant nature of the Gag-PLK interaction in mammalian cells. The functional relevance of the Gag-PLK interaction was examined in the context of replication-competent FVs and single-round PFV vectors. Although STP motif mutated viruses displayed wild type (wt) particle release, RNA packaging and intra-particle reverse transcription, their replication capacity was decreased 3-fold in single-cycle infections, and up to 20-fold in spreading infections over an extended time period. Strikingly similar defects were observed when cells infected with single-round wt Gag PFV vectors were treated with a pan PLK inhibitor. Analysis of entry kinetics of the mutant viruses indicated a post-fusion defect resulting in delayed and reduced integration, which was accompanied with an enhanced preference to integrate into heterochromatin. We conclude that interaction between PFV Gag and cellular PLK proteins is important for early replication steps of PFV within host cells.
We present a theoretical framework for the analysis of the statistical properties of thermal fluctuations on a lossy transmission line. A quantization scheme of the electrical signals in the transmission line is formulated. We discuss two applications in detail. Noise spectra at finite temperature for voltage and current are shown to deviate significantly from the Johnson-Nyquist limit, and they depend on the position on the transmission line. We analyze the spontaneous emission, at low temperature, of a Rydberg atom and its resonant enhancement due to vacuum fluctuations in a capacitively coupled transmission line. The theory can also be applied to study the performance of microscale and nanoscale devices, including high-resolution sensors and quantum information processors
We present a momentum transfer mechanism mediated by electromagnetic fields that originates in a system of two nearby molecules: one excited (donor D*) and the other in ground state (acceptor A). An intermolecular force related to fluorescence resonant energy or Forster transfer (FRET) arises in the unstable D* A molecular system, which differs from the equilibrium van der Waals interaction. Due to the its finite lifetime, a mechanical impulse is imparted to the relative motion in the system. We analyze the FRET impulse when the molecules are embedded in free space and find that its magnitude can be much greater than the single recoil photon momentum, getting comparable with the thermal momentum (Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution) at room temperature. In addition, we propose that this FRET impulse can be exploited in the generation of acoustic waves inside a film containing layers of donor and acceptor molecules, when a picosecond laser pulse excites the donors. This acoustic transient is distinguishable from that produced by thermal stress due to laser absorption, and may therefore play a role in photoacoustic spectroscopy. The effect can be seen as exciting a vibrating system like a string or organ pipe with light; it may be used as an opto-mechanical transducer.
SDM performance varied for different range dynamics. Prediction accuracies decreased when abrupt range shifts occurred as species were outpaced by the rate of climate change, and increased again when a new equilibrium situation was realised. When ranges contracted, prediction accuracies increased as the absences were predicted well. Far- dispersing species were faster in tracking climate change, and were predicted more accurately by SDMs than short- dispersing species. BRTs mostly outperformed GLMs. The presence of a predator, and the inclusion of its incidence as an environmental predictor, made BRTs and GLMs perform similarly. Results are discussed in light of other studies dealing with effects of ecological traits and processes on SDM performance. Perspectives are given on further advancements of SDMs and for possible interfaces with more mechanistic approaches in order to improve predictions under environmental change.
Empirical species distribution models (SDMs) constitute often the tool of choice for the assessment of rapid climate change effects on species vulnerability. Conclusions regarding extinction risks might be misleading, however, because SDMs do not explicitly incorporate dispersal or other demographic processes. Here, we supplement SDMs with a dynamic population model 1) to predict climate-induced range dynamics for black grouse in Switzerland, 2) to compare direct and indirect measures of extinction risks, and 3) to quantify uncertainty in predictions as well as the sources of that uncertainty. To this end, we linked models of habitat suitability to a spatially explicit, individual-based model. In an extensive sensitivity analysis, we quantified uncertainty in various model outputs introduced by different SDM algorithms, by different climate scenarios and by demographic model parameters. Potentially suitable habitats were predicted to shift uphill and eastwards. By the end of the 21st century, abrupt habitat losses were predicted in the western Prealps for some climate scenarios. In contrast, population size and occupied area were primarily controlled by currently negative population growth and gradually declined from the beginning of the century across all climate scenarios and SDM algorithms. However, predictions of population dynamic features were highly variable across simulations. Results indicate that inferring extinction probabilities simply from the quantity of suitable habitat may underestimate extinction risks because this may ignore important interactions between life history traits and available habitat. Also, in dynamic range predictions uncertainty in SDM algorithms and climate scenarios can become secondary to uncertainty in dynamic model components. Our study emphasises the need for principal evaluation tools like sensitivity analysis in order to assess uncertainty and robustness in dynamic range predictions. A more direct benefit of such robustness analysis is an improved mechanistic understanding of dynamic species responses to climate change.
Data limitations can lead to unrealistic fits of predictive species distribution models (SDMs) and spurious extrapolation to novel environments. Here, we want to draw attention to novel combinations of environmental predictors that are within the sampled range of individual predictors but are nevertheless outside the sample space. These tend to be overlooked when visualizing model behaviour. They may be a cause of differing model transferability and environmental change predictions between methods, a problem described in some studies but generally not well understood. We here use a simple simulated data example to illustrate the problem and provide new and complementary visualization techniques to explore model behaviour and predictions to novel environments. We then apply these in a more complex real-world example. Our results underscore the necessity of scrutinizing model fits, ecological theory and environmental novelty.
Density regulation influences population dynamics through its effects on demographic rates and consequently constitutes a key mechanism explaining the response of organisms to environmental changes. Yet, it is difficult to establish the exact form of density dependence from empirical data. Here, we developed an individual-based model to explore how resource limitation and behavioural processes determine the spatial structure of white stork Ciconia ciconia populations and regulate reproductive rates. We found that the form of density dependence differed considerably between landscapes with the same overall resource availability and between home range selection strategies, highlighting the importance of fine-scale resource distribution in interaction with behaviour. In accordance with theories of density dependence, breeding output generally decreased with density but this effect was highly variable and strongly affected by optimal foraging strategy, resource detection probability and colonial behaviour. Moreover, our results uncovered an overlooked consequence of density dependence by showing that high early nestling mortality in storks, assumed to be the outcome of harsh weather, may actually result from density dependent effects on food provision. Our findings emphasize that accounting for interactive effects of individual behaviour and local environmental factors is crucial for understanding density-dependent processes within spatially structured populations. Enhanced understanding of the ways animal populations are regulated in general, and how habitat conditions and behaviour may dictate spatial population structure and demographic rates is critically needed for predicting the dynamics of populations, communities and ecosystems under changing environmental conditions.
Ecologists carry a well-stocked toolbox with a great variety of sampling methods, statistical analyses and modelling tools, and new methods are constantly appearing. Evaluation and optimisation of these methods is crucial to guide methodological choices. Simulating error-free data or taking high-quality data to qualify methods is common practice. Here, we emphasise the methodology of the 'virtual ecologist' (VE) approach where simulated data and observer models are used to mimic real species and how they are 'virtually' observed. This virtual data is then subjected to statistical analyses and modelling, and the results are evaluated against the 'true' simulated data. The VE approach is an intuitive and powerful evaluation framework that allows a quality assessment of sampling protocols, analyses and modelling tools. It works under controlled conditions as well as under consideration of confounding factors such as animal movement and biased observer behaviour. In this review, we promote the approach as a rigorous research tool, and demonstrate its capabilities and practical relevance. We explore past uses of VE in different ecological research fields, where it mainly has been used to test and improve sampling regimes as well as for testing and comparing models, for example species distribution models. We discuss its benefits as well as potential limitations, and provide some practical considerations for designing VE studies. Finally, research fields are identified for which the approach could be useful in the future. We conclude that VE could foster the integration of theoretical and empirical work and stimulate work that goes far beyond sampling methods, leading to new questions, theories, and better mechanistic understanding of ecological systems.
Species respond to environmental change by dynamically adjusting their geographical ranges. Robust predictions of these changes are prerequisites to inform dynamic and sustainable conservation strategies. Correlative species distribution models (SDMs) relate species’ occurrence records to prevailing environmental factors to describe the environmental niche. They have been widely applied in global change context as they have comparably low data requirements and allow for rapid assessments of potential future species’ distributions. However, due to their static nature, transient responses to environmental change are essentially ignored in SDMs. Furthermore, neither dispersal nor demographic processes and biotic interactions are explicitly incorporated. Therefore, it has often been suggested to link statistical and mechanistic modelling approaches in order to make more realistic predictions of species’ distributions for scenarios of environmental change. In this thesis, I present two different ways of such linkage. (i) Mechanistic modelling can act as virtual playground for testing statistical models and allows extensive exploration of specific questions. I promote this ‘virtual ecologist’ approach as a powerful evaluation framework for testing sampling protocols, analyses and modelling tools. Also, I employ such an approach to systematically assess the effects of transient dynamics and ecological properties and processes on the prediction accuracy of SDMs for climate change projections. That way, relevant mechanisms are identified that shape the species’ response to altered environmental conditions and which should hence be considered when trying to project species’ distribution through time. (ii) I supplement SDM projections of potential future habitat for black grouse in Switzerland with an individual-based population model. By explicitly considering complex interactions between habitat availability and demographic processes, this allows for a more direct assessment of expected population response to environmental change and associated extinction risks. However, predictions were highly variable across simulations emphasising the need for principal evaluation tools like sensitivity analysis to assess uncertainty and robustness in dynamic range predictions. Furthermore, I identify data coverage of the environmental niche as a likely cause for contrasted range predictions between SDM algorithms. SDMs may fail to make reliable predictions for truncated and edge niches, meaning that portions of the niche are not represented in the data or niche edges coincide with data limits. Overall, my thesis contributes to an improved understanding of uncertainty factors in predictions of range dynamics and presents ways how to deal with these. Finally I provide preliminary guidelines for predictive modelling of dynamic species’ response to environmental change, identify key challenges for future research and discuss emerging developments.
