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The Central Asian Pamir Mountains (Pamirs) are a high-altitude region sensitive to climatic change, with only few paleoclimatic records available. To examine the glacial-interglacial hydrological changes in the region, we analyzed the geochemical parameters of a 31-kyr record from Lake Karakul and performed a set of experiments with climate models to interpret the results. delta D values of terrestrial biomarkers showed insolation-driven trends reflecting major shifts of water vapor sources. For aquatic biomarkers, positive delta D shifts driven by changes in precipitation seasonality were observed at ca. 31-30, 28-26, and 17-14 kyr BP. Multiproxy paleoecological data and modelling results suggest that increased water availability, induced by decreased summer evaporation, triggered higher lake levels during those episodes, possibly synchronous to northern hemispheric rapid climate events. We conclude that seasonal changes in precipitation-evaporation balance significantly influenced the hydrological state of a large waterbody such as Lake Karakul, while annual precipitation amount and inflows remained fairly constant.
The literature contains a sizable number of publications where weather types are used to decompose climate shifts or trends into contributions of frequency and mean of those types. They are all based on the product rule, that is, a transformation of a product of sums into a sum of products, the latter providing the decomposition. While there is nothing to argue about the transformation itself, its interpretation as a climate shift or trend decomposition is bound to fail. While the case of a climate shift may be viewed as an incomplete description of a more complex behaviour, trend decomposition indeed produces bogus trends, as demonstrated by a synthetic counterexample with well-defined trends in type frequency and mean. Consequently, decompositions based on that transformation, be it for climate shifts or trends, must not be used.
The Greater and Lesser Caucasus mountains and their associated foreland basins contain similar rock types, experience a similar two-fold, along-strike variation in mean annual precipitation, and were affected by extreme base-level drops of the neighboring Caspian Sea. However, the two Caucasus ranges are characterized by decidedly different tectonic regimes and rates of deformation that are subject to moderate (less than an order of magnitude) gradients in climate, and thus allow for a unique opportunity to isolate the effects of climate and tectonics in the evolution of topography within active orogens. There is an apparent disconnect between modern climate, shortening rates, and topography of both the Greater Caucasus and Lesser Caucasus which exhibit remarkably similar topography along-strike despite the gradients in forcing. By combining multiple datasets, we examine plausible causes for this disconnect by presenting a detailed analysis of the topography of both ranges utilizing established relationships between catchment-mean erosion rates and topography (local relief, hillslope gradients, and channel steepness) and combining it with a synthesis of previously published low-temperature thermochronologic data. Modern climate of the Caucasus region is assessed through an analysis of remotely-sensed data (TRMM and MODIS) and historical streamflow data. Because along-strike variation in either erosional efficiency or thickness of accreted material fail to explain our observations, we suggest that the topography of both the western Lesser and Greater Caucasus are partially supported by different geodynamic forces. In the western Lesser Caucasus, high relief portions of the landscape likely reflect uplift related to ongoing mantle lithosphere delamination beneath the neighboring East Anatolian Plateau. In the Greater Caucasus, maintenance of high topography in the western portion of the range despite extremely low (<2-4 mm/y) modern convergence rates may be related to dynamic topography from detachment of the north-directed Greater Caucasus slab or to a recent slowing of convergence rates. Large-scale spatial gradients in climate are not reflected in the topography of the Caucasus and do not seem to exert any significant control on the tectonics or structure of either range. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Der Autor diskutiert die Chancen und Risiken bei der Einbindung
des Südens in die internationale Klimapolitik. Lange Zeit hatten die
Entwicklungsländer am wenigsten zum Klimawandel beigetragen,
wären aber am stärksten von ihm betroffen. Mittlerweile jedoch tragen
diese Länder in erheblichem Maße selbst zum Klimawandel bei. Allerdings
setzen deren Regierungen auf Zeit. Sie erwarten Ressourcentransfers.
Dies verstärkt auch alte Probleme des ‚Rent-Seeking‘.
Projected changes in compound flood hazard from riverine and coastal floods in northwestern Europe
(2020)
Compound flooding in coastal regions, that is, the simultaneous or successive occurrence of high sea levels and high river flows, is expected to increase in a warmer world. To date, however, there is no robust evidence on projected changes in compound flooding for northwestern Europe. We combine projected storm surges and river floods with probabilistic, localized relative sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios to assess the future compound flood hazard over northwestern coastal Europe in the high (RCP8.5) emission scenario. We use high-resolution, dynamically downscaled regional climate models (RCM) to drive a storm surge model and a hydrological model, and analyze the joint occurrence of high coastal water levels and associated river peaks in a multivariate copula-based approach. The RCM-forced multimodel mean reasonably represents the observed spatial pattern of the dependence strength between annual maxima surge and peak river discharge, although substantial discrepancies exist between observed and simulated dependence strength. All models overestimate the dependence strength, possibly due to limitations in model parameterizations. This bias affects compound flood hazard estimates and requires further investigation. While our results suggest decreasing compound flood hazard over the majority of sites by 2050s (2040-2069) compared to the reference period (1985-2005), an increase in projected compound flood hazard is limited to around 34% of the sites. Further, we show the substantial role of SLR, a driver of compound floods, which has frequently been neglected. Our findings highlight the need to be aware of the limitations of the current generation of Earth system models in simulating coastal compound floods.
Steppe vegetation represents a key marker of past Asian aridification and is associated with monsoonal intensification. Little is, however, known about the origin of this pre-Oligocene vegetation, its specific composition and how it changed over time and responded to climatic variations. Here, we describe the morphological characters of Ephedraceae pollen in Eocene strata of the Xining Basin and compare the pollen composition with the palynological composition of Late Cretaceous and Paleocene deposits of the Xining Basin and the Quaternary deposits of the Qaidam Basin. We find that the Late Cretaceous steppe was dominated by Gnetaceaepollenites; in the transition from the Cretaceous to the Paleocene, Gnetaceaepollenites became extinct and Ephedripites subgenus Ephedripites dominated the flora with rare occurrences of Ephedripites subgen. Distachyapites; the middle to late Eocene presents a strong increase of Ephedripites subgen. Distachyapites; and the Quaternary/Recent is marked by a significantly lower diversity of Ephedraceae (and Nitrariaceae) compared to the Eocene. In the modern landscape of China, only a fraction of the Paleogene species diversity of Ephedraceae remains and we propose that these alterations in Ephedreaceae composition occurred in response to the climatic changes at least since the Eocene. In particular, the strong Eocene monsoons that enhanced the continental aridification may have played an important role in the evolution of Ephedripites subgen. Distachyapites triggering an evolutionary shift to wind-pollination in this group. Conceivably, the Ephedraceae/Nitrariaceae dominated steppe ended during the Eocene/Oligocene climatic cooling and aridification, which favoured other plant taxa.
Wie Klimaschutz finanzieren?
(2012)
Zur Finanzierung von Klimaschutz müssen öffentliche Mittel gezielt
eingesetzt werden. Dies beinhaltet auch die Rahmenbedingungen für
private Finanzströme signifikant zu verbessern. Anhand einer Problemanalyse
bestimmen die Autoren Eckdaten für diese Hebelwirkung.
Öffentliche Anschubfinanzierung kann somit die Grundlage für private
Investitionen sein. Dies wird exemplarisch an der Internationalen
Klimaschutzinitiative des Bundesumweltministeriums diskutiert.
Abschied von KyotoPlus?
(2012)
Die Ergebnisse des Klimagipfels von Kopenhagen sind eine bittere
Enttäuschung für die EU. Ihr ist es nicht gelungen, ihren Führungsambitionen
beim globalen Klimaschutz gerecht zu werden und die
Konferenz zur Weichenstellung für ein rechtsverbindliches Klimaabkommen
nach 2012 zu nutzen. Damit steht die Union vor grundlegenden
strategischen Fragen zum Kurs ihrer Klimapolitik.
Lake overspill and onset of fluvial incision in the Iranian Plateau: Insights from the Mianeh Basin
(2017)
Orogenic plateaus represent a prime example of the interplay between surface processes, climate, and tectonics. This kind of an interplay is thought to be responsible for the formation, preservation, and, ultimately, the destruction of a typical elevated, low-internal relief plateau landscape. Here, we document the timing of intermontane basin filling associated with the formation of a low-relief plateau morphology, followed by basin opening and plateau-flank incision in the northwestern Iranian Plateau of the Arabia Eurasia collision zone. Our new U-Pb zircon ages from intercalated volcanic ashes in exposed plateau basin-fill sediments from the most external plateau basin (Mianeh Basin) document that the basin was internally drained at least between similar to 7 and 4 Ma, and that from similar to 5 to 4 Ma it was characterized by an similar to 2-km-high and similar to 0.5-km-deep lake (Mianeh paleolake), most likely as a result of wetter climatic conditions. At the same time, the eastern margin of the Mianeh Basin (and, therefore, of the Iranian Plateau) experienced limited tectonic activity, as documented by onlapping sediments and smoothed topography. The combination of high lake level and subdued topography at the plateau margin led to lake overspill, which resulted in the cutting of an similar to 1-km-deep bedrock gorge (Amardos) by the Qezel-Owzan River (QOR) beginning at similar to 4 Ma. This was associated with the incision of the plateau landscape and the establishment of fluvial connectivity with the Caspian Sea. Overall, our study emphasizes the interplay between surface and tectonic processes in forming, maintaining, and destroying orogenic plateau morphology, the transitional nature of orogenic plateau landscapes on timescales of 10(6) yr, and, finally, the role played by overspilling in integrating endorheic basins. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.