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The intrinsic predictability of ecological time series and its potential to guide forecasting
(2019)
The size structure of autotroph communities - the relative abundance of small vs. large individuals - shapes the functioning of ecosystems. Whether common mechanisms underpin the size structure of unicellular and multicellular autotrophs is, however, unknown. Using a global data compilation, we show that individual body masses in tree and phytoplankton communities follow power-law distributions and that the average exponents of these individual size distributions (ISD) differ. Phytoplankton communities are characterized by an average ISD exponent consistent with three-quarter-power scaling of metabolism with body mass and equivalence in energy use among mass classes. Tree communities deviate from this pattern in a manner consistent with equivalence in energy use among diameter size classes. Our findings suggest that whilst universal metabolic constraints ultimately underlie the emergent size structure of autotroph communities, divergent aspects of body size (volumetric vs. linear dimensions) shape the ecological outcome of metabolic scaling in forest vs. pelagic ecosystems.
The mineral and biochemical food quality of prey may limit predator production. This well-studied direct bottom-up effect is especially prominent for herbivore-plant interactions. Low-quality prey species, particularly when defended, are generally considered to be less prone to predator-driven extinction. Undefended high-quality prey species sustain high predator production thereby potentially increasing their own extinction risk. The food quality of primary producers is highly species-specific. In communities of competing prey species, predators thus may supplement their diets of low-quality prey with high-quality prey, leading to indirect horizontal interactions between prey species of different food quality. We explore how these predator-mediated indirect interactions affect species coexistence in a general predator-prey model that is parametrized for an experimental algae-rotifer system. To cover a broad range of three essential functional traits that shape many plant-herbivore interactions we consider differences in 1) the food quality of the prey species, 2) their competitive ability for nutrient uptake and 3) their defence against predation. As expected, low food quality of prey can, similarly to defence, provide protection against extinction by predation. Counterintuitively, our simulations demonstrate that being of high food quality also prevents extinction of that prey species and additionally promotes coexistence with a competing, low-quality prey. The persistence of the high-quality prey enables a high conversion efficiency and control of the low-quality prey by the predator and allows for re-allocation of nutrients to the high-quality competitor. Our results show that high food quality is not necessarily detrimental for a prey species but instead can protect against extinction and promote species richness and functional biodiversity.
Global change threatens the maintenance of ecosystem functions that are shaped by the persistence and dynamics of populations. It has been shown that the persistence of species increases if they possess larger trait adaptability. Here, we investigate whether trait adaptability also affects the robustness of population dynamics of interacting species and thereby shapes the reliability of ecosystem functions that are driven by these dynamics. We model co‐adaptation in a predator–prey system as changes to predator offense and prey defense due to evolution or phenotypic plasticity. We investigate how trait adaptation affects the robustness of population dynamics against press perturbations to environmental parameters and against pulse perturbations targeting species abundances and their trait values. Robustness of population dynamics is characterized by resilience, elasticity, and resistance. In addition to employing established measures for resilience and elasticity against pulse perturbations (extinction probability and return time), we propose the warping distance as a new measure for resistance against press perturbations, which compares the shapes and amplitudes of pre‐ and post‐perturbation population dynamics. As expected, we find that the robustness of population dynamics depends on the speed of adaptation, but in nontrivial ways. Elasticity increases with speed of adaptation as the system returns more rapidly to the pre‐perturbation state. Resilience, in turn, is enhanced by intermediate speeds of adaptation, as here trait adaptation dampens biomass oscillations. The resistance of population dynamics strongly depends on the target of the press perturbation, preventing a simple relationship with the adaptation speed. In general, we find that low robustness often coincides with high amplitudes of population dynamics. Hence, amplitudes may indicate the robustness against perturbations also in other natural systems with similar dynamics. Our findings show that besides counteracting extinctions, trait adaptation indeed strongly affects the robustness of population dynamics against press and pulse perturbations.
Global change threatens the maintenance of ecosystem functions that are shaped by the persistence and dynamics of populations. It has been shown that the persistence of species increases if they possess larger trait adaptability. Here, we investigate whether trait adaptability also affects the robustness of population dynamics of interacting species and thereby shapes the reliability of ecosystem functions that are driven by these dynamics. We model co‐adaptation in a predator–prey system as changes to predator offense and prey defense due to evolution or phenotypic plasticity. We investigate how trait adaptation affects the robustness of population dynamics against press perturbations to environmental parameters and against pulse perturbations targeting species abundances and their trait values. Robustness of population dynamics is characterized by resilience, elasticity, and resistance. In addition to employing established measures for resilience and elasticity against pulse perturbations (extinction probability and return time), we propose the warping distance as a new measure for resistance against press perturbations, which compares the shapes and amplitudes of pre‐ and post‐perturbation population dynamics. As expected, we find that the robustness of population dynamics depends on the speed of adaptation, but in nontrivial ways. Elasticity increases with speed of adaptation as the system returns more rapidly to the pre‐perturbation state. Resilience, in turn, is enhanced by intermediate speeds of adaptation, as here trait adaptation dampens biomass oscillations. The resistance of population dynamics strongly depends on the target of the press perturbation, preventing a simple relationship with the adaptation speed. In general, we find that low robustness often coincides with high amplitudes of population dynamics. Hence, amplitudes may indicate the robustness against perturbations also in other natural systems with similar dynamics. Our findings show that besides counteracting extinctions, trait adaptation indeed strongly affects the robustness of population dynamics against press and pulse perturbations.
1. Improving the mechanistic basis of biodiversity-ecosystem function relationships requires a better understanding of how functional traits drive the dynamics of populations. For example, environmental disturbances or grazing may increase synchronization of functionally similar species, whereas functionally different species may show independent dynamics, because of different responses to the environment. Competition for resources, on the other hand, may yield a wide range of dynamic patterns among competitors and lead functionally similar and different species to display synchronized to compensatory dynamics. The mixed effect of these forces will influence the temporal fluctuations of populations and, thus, the variability of aggregate community properties.
2. To search for a relationship between functional and dynamics similarity, we studied the relationship between functional trait similarity and temporal dynamics similarity for 36 morphotypes of phytoplankton using long-term high-frequency measurements.
3. Our results show that functionally similar morphotypes exhibit dynamics that are more synchronized than those of functionally dissimilar ones. Functionally dissimilar morphotypes predominantly display independent temporal dynamics. This pattern is especially strong when short time-scales are considered.
4. Negative correlations are present among both functionally similar and dissimilar phytoplankton morphotypes, but are rarer and weaker than positive ones over all temporal scales.
5. Synthesis. We demonstrate that diversity in functional traits decreases community variability and ecosystem-level properties by decoupling the dynamics of individual morphotypes.
Gaining understanding of food-web processes often requires a simplified representation of natural diversity. One such simplification can be based on functional traits, as functionally similar species may provide a similar contribution to ecosystem level-processes. However, understanding how similarity in functional traits actually translates into similar contributions to ecosystem-level properties remains a challenge due to the complex ways in which traits can influence species' dynamics. Moreover, in many communities, seasonality alters the abiotic and biotic forcing regime, causing ongoing changes to patterns of species' dominance; groups of species do not stay intact but are rather continuously subjected to changes throughout the year. Using long-term high frequency measurements of phytoplankton in Lake Constance, we investigated the effect of seasonal changes on the relationship between functional similarity and temporal dynamics similarity of 36 morphotypes, and the relative contribution of different functional traits during the different parts of the year. Our results revealed seasonal differences in the overall degree of synchronization of morphotypes' temporal dynamics and how combinations of functional traits influence the relationship between functional trait similarity and temporal dynamics similarity, showing that different forcing regimes change how species cope with their environment based on their functional traits. Moreover, we show that the individual functional traits matter at different periods of the year indicating that species which are dynamically similar at certain parts of the year may not be at others. The differential strength of the overall and individual impact of functional traits on species' temporal dynamics makes the cohesion of a pair of functionally similar species dependent on the different forcing. Hence, simplifying food webs based solely on functional traits may not provide consistent estimates of functional groups over all seasons.
Standing stocks are typically easier to measure than process rates such as production. Hence, stocks are often used as indicators of ecosystem functions although the latter are generally more strongly related to rates than to stocks. The regulation of stocks and rates and thus their variability over time may differ, as stocks constitute the net result of production and losses. Based on long-term high frequency measurements in a large, deep lake we explore the variability patterns in primary and bacterial production and relate them to those of the corresponding standing stocks, i.e. chlorophyll concentration, phytoplankton and bacterial biomass. We employ different methods (coefficient of variation, spline fitting and spectral analysis) which complement each other for assessing the variability present in the plankton data, at different temporal scales. In phytoplankton, we found that the overall variability of primary production is dominated by fluctuations at low frequencies, such as the annual, whereas in stocks and chlorophyll in particular, higher frequencies contribute substantially to the overall variance. This suggests that using standing stocks instead of rate measures leads to an under- or overestimation of food shortage for consumers during distinct periods of the year. The range of annual variation in bacterial production is 8 times greater than biomass, showing that the variability of bacterial activity (e.g. oxygen consumption, remineralisation) would be underestimated if biomass is used. The P/B ratios were variable and although clear trends are present in both bacteria and phytoplankton, no systematic relationship between stock and rate measures were found for the two groups. Hence, standing stock and process rate measures exhibit different variability patterns and care is needed when interpreting the mechanisms and implications of the variability encountered.
Estimating parameters from multiple time series of population dynamics using bayesian inference
(2019)
Empirical time series of interacting entities, e.g., species abundances, are highly useful to study ecological mechanisms. Mathematical models are valuable tools to further elucidate those mechanisms and underlying processes. However, obtaining an agreement between model predictions and experimental observations remains a demanding task. As models always abstract from reality one parameter often summarizes several properties. Parameter measurements are performed in additional experiments independent of the ones delivering the time series. Transferring these parameter values to different settings may result in incorrect parametrizations. On top of that, the properties of organisms and thus the respective parameter values may vary considerably. These issues limit the use of a priori model parametrizations. In this study, we present a method suited for a direct estimation of model parameters and their variability from experimental time series data. We combine numerical simulations of a continuous-time dynamical population model with Bayesian inference, using a hierarchical framework that allows for variability of individual parameters. The method is applied to a comprehensive set of time series from a laboratory predator-prey system that features both steady states and cyclic population dynamics. Our model predictions are able to reproduce both steady states and cyclic dynamics of the data. Additionally to the direct estimates of the parameter values, the Bayesian approach also provides their uncertainties. We found that fitting cyclic population dynamics, which contain more information on the process rates than steady states, yields more precise parameter estimates. We detected significant variability among parameters of different time series and identified the variation in the maximum growth rate of the prey as a source for the transition from steady states to cyclic dynamics. By lending more flexibility to the model, our approach facilitates parametrizations and shows more easily which patterns in time series can be explained also by simple models. Applying Bayesian inference and dynamical population models in conjunction may help to quantify the profound variability in organismal properties in nature.
In ecological communities, especially the pelagic zones of aquatic ecosystems, certain bodysize ranges are often over-represented compared to others. Community size spectra, the distributions of community biomass over the logarithmic body-mass axis, tend to exhibit regularly spaced local maxima, called "domes", separated by steep troughs. Contrasting established theory, we explain these dome patterns as manifestations of top-down trophic cascades along aquatic food chains. Compiling high quality size-spectrum data and comparing these with a size-spectrum model introduced in this study, we test this theory and develop a detailed picture of the mechanisms by which bottom-up and top-down effects interact to generate dome patterns. Results imply that strong top-down trophic cascades are common in freshwater communities, much more than hitherto demonstrated, and may arise in nutrient rich marine systems as well. Transferring insights from the general theory of nonlinear pattern formation to domes patterns, we provide new interpretations of past lake-manipulation experiments.