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- Institut für Physik und Astronomie (32) (remove)
Climate change affects societies across the globe in various ways. In addition to gradual changes in temperature and other climatic variables, global warming is likely to increase intensity and frequency of extreme weather events.
Beyond biophysical impacts, these also directly affect societal and economic activity. Additionally, indirect effects can occur; spatially, economic losses can spread along global supply-chains; temporally, climate impacts can change the economic development trajectory of countries.
This thesis first examines how climate change alters river flood risk and its local socio-economic implications. Then, it studies the global economic response to river floods in particular, and to climate change in general.
Changes in high-end river flood risk are calculated for the next three decades on a global scale with high spatial resolution. In order to account for uncertainties, this assessment makes use of an ensemble of climate and hydrological models as well as a river routing model, that is found to perform well regarding peak river discharge. The results show an increase in high-end flood risk in many parts of the world, which require profound adaptation efforts. This pressure to adapt is measured as the enhancement in protection level necessary to stay at historical high-end risk. In developing countries as well as in industrialized regions, a high pressure to adapt is observed - the former to increase low protection levels, the latter to maintain the low risk levels perceived in the past.
Further in this thesis, the global agent-based dynamic supply-chain model acclimate is developed. It models the cascading of indirect losses in the global supply network. As an anomaly model its agents - firms and consumers - maximize their profit locally to respond optimally to local perturbations. Incorporating quantities as well as prices on a daily basis, it is suitable to dynamically resolve the impacts of unanticipated climate extremes.
The model is further complemented by a static measure, which captures the inter-dependencies between sectors across regions that are only connected indirectly. These higher-order dependencies are shown to be important for a comprehensive assessment of loss-propagation and overall costs of local disasters.
In order to study the economic response to river floods, the acclimate model is driven by flood simulations. Within the next two decades, the increase in direct losses can only partially be compensated by market adjustments, and total losses are projected to increase by 17% without further adaptation efforts. The US and the EU are both shown to receive indirect losses from China, which is strongly affected directly. However, recent trends in the trade relations leave the EU in a better position to compensate for these losses.
Finally, this thesis takes a broader perspective when determining the investment response to the climate change damages employing the integrated assessment model DICE. On an optimal economic development path, the increase in damages is anticipated as emissions and consequently temperatures increase. This leads to a significant devaluation of investment returns and the income losses from climate damages almost double.
Overall, the results highlight the need to adapt to extreme weather events - local physical adaptation measures have to be combined with regional and global policy measures to prepare the global supply-chain network to climate change.
Poly(vinylidene fluoride-trifluoroethylene) (P(VDF-TrFE)) ferroelectric thin films of different molar ratio have been studied with regard to data memory applications. Therefore, films with thicknesses of 200 nm and less have been spin coated from solution. Observations gained from single layers have been extended to multilayer capacitors and three terminal transistor devices.
Besides conventional hysteresis measurements, the measurement of dielectric non-linearities has been used as a main tool of characterisation. Being a very sensitive and non-destructive method, non-linearity measurements are well suited for polarisation readout and property studies. Samples have been excited using a high quality, single-frequency sinusoidal voltage with an amplitude significantly smaller than the coercive field of the samples. The response was then measured at the excitation frequency and its higher harmonics. Using the measurement results, the linear and non-linear dielectric permittivities ɛ₁, ɛ₂ and ɛ₃ have been determined. The permittivities have been used to derive the temperature-dependent polarisation behaviour as well as the polarisation state and the order of the phase transitions.
The coercive field in VDF-TrFE copolymers is high if compared to their ceramic competitors. Therefore, the film thickness had to be reduced significantly. Considering a switching voltage of 5 V and a coercive field of 50 MV/m, the film thickness has to be 100 nm and below. If the thickness becomes substantially smaller than the other dimensions, surface and interface layer effects become more pronounced. For thicker films of P(VDF-TrFE) with a molar fraction of 56/44 a second-order phase transition without a thermal hysteresis for an ɛ₁(T) temperature cycle has been predicted and observed. This however, could not be confirmed by the measurements of thinner films. A shift of transition temperatures as well as a temperature independent, non-switchable polarisation and a thermal hysteresis for P(VDF-TrFE) 56/44 have been observed. The impact of static electric fields on the polarisation and the phase transition has therefore been studied and simulated, showing that all aforementioned phenomena including a linear temperature dependence of the polarisation might originate from intrinsic electric fields.
In further experiments the knowledge gained from single layer capacitors has been extended to bilayer copolymer thin films of different molar composition. Bilayers have been deposited by succeeding cycles of spin coating from solution. Single layers and their bilayer combination have been studied individually in order to prove the layers stability. The individual layers have been found to be physically stable. But while the bilayers reproduced the main ɛ₁(T) properties of the single layers qualitatively, quantitative numbers could not be explained by a simple serial connection of capacitors. Furthermore, a linear behaviour of the polarisation throughout the measured temperature range has been observed. This was found to match the behaviour predicted considering a constant electric field.
Retention time is an important quantity for memory applications. Hence, the retention behaviour of VDF-TrFE copolymer thin films has been determined using dielectric non-linearities. The polarisation loss in P(VDF-TrFE) poled samples has been found to be less than 20% if recorded over several days. The loss increases significantly if the samples have been poled with lower amplitudes, causing an unsaturated polarisation. The main loss was attributed to injected charges. Additionally, measurements of dielectric non-linearities have been proven to be a sensitive and non-destructive tool to measure the retention behaviour.
Finally, a ferroelectric field effect transistor using mainly organic materials (FerrOFET) has been successfully studied. DiNaphtho[2,3-b:2',3'-f]Thieno[3,2-b]Thiophene (DNTT) has proven to be a stable, suitable organic semiconductor to build up ferroelectric memory devices. Furthermore, an oxidised aluminium bottom electrode and additional dielectric layers, i.e. parylene C, have proven to reduce the leakage current and therefore enhance the performance significantly.
The solar activity and its consequences affect space weather and Earth’s climate. The solar activity exhibits a cyclic behaviour with a period of about 11 years. The solar cycle properties are governed by the dynamo taking place in the interior of the Sun, and they are distinctive. Extending the knowledge about solar cycle properties into the past is essential for understanding the solar dynamo and forecasting space weather. It can be acquired through the analysis of historical sunspot drawings. Sunspots are the dark areas, which are associated with strong magnetic fields, on the solar surface. Sunspots are the oldest and longest available observed features of solar activity.
One of the longest available records of sunspot drawings is the collection by Samuel Heinrich Schwabe during 1825–1867. The sunspot sizes measured from digitized Schwabe drawings are not to scale and need to be converted into physical sunspot areas. We employed a statistical approach assuming that the area distribution of sunspots was the same in the 19th century as it was in the 20th century. Umbral areas for about 130 000 sunspots observed by Schwabe were obtained. The annually averaged sunspot areas correlate reasonably well with the sunspot number. Tilt angles and polarity separations of sunspot groups were calculated assuming them to be bipolar. There is, of course, no polarity information in the observations. We derived an average tilt angle by attempting to exclude unipolar groups with a minimum separation of the two surmised polarities and an outlier rejection method, which follows the evolution of each group and detects the moment, when it turns unipolar as it decays. As a result, the tilt angles, although displaying considerable natural scatter, are on average 5.85° ± 0.25°, with the leading
polarity located closer to the equator, in good agreement with tilt angles obtained from 20th century data sets. Sources of uncertainties in the tilt angle determination are discussed and need to be addressed whenever different data sets are combined.
Digital images of observations printed in the books Rosa Ursina and Prodromus pro sole mobili by Christoph Scheiner, as well as the drawings from Scheiner’s letters to Marcus Welser, are analyzed to obtain information on the positions and sizes of sunspots that appeared before the Maunder minimum. In most cases, the given orientation of the ecliptic is used to set up the heliographic coordinate system for the drawings. Positions and sizes are measured manually displaying the drawings on a computer screen. Very early drawings have no indication of the solar orientation. A rotational matching using common spots of adjacent days is used in some cases, while in other cases, the assumption that images were aligned with a zenith–horizon coordinate system appeared to be the most likely. In total, 8167 sunspots were measured. A distribution of sunspot latitudes versus time (butterfly diagram) is obtained for Scheiner’s observations. The observations of 1611 are very inaccurate, but the drawings of 1612 have at least an indication of the solar orientation, while the remaining part of the spot positions from 1618–1631 have good to very good accuracy. We also computed 697 tilt angles of apparent bipolar sunspot groups, which were observed in the period 1618–1631. We find that the average tilt angle of nearly 4° does not significantly differ from the 20th century values.
The solar cycle properties seem to be related to the tilt angles of sunspot groups, and it is an important parameter in the surface flux transport models. The tilt angles of bipolar sunspot groups from various historical sets of solar drawings including from Schwabe and Scheiner are analyzed. Data by Scheiner, Hevelius, Staudacher, Zucconi, Schwabe, and Spörer deliver a series of average tilt angles spanning a period of 270 years, in addition to previously found values for 20th-century data obtained by other authors. We find that the average tilt angles before the Maunder minimum were not significantly different from modern values. However, the average tilt angles of a period 50 years after the Maunder minimum, namely for cycles 0 and 1, were much lower and near zero. The typical tilt angles before the Maunder minimum suggest that abnormally low tilt angles were not responsible for driving the solar cycle into a grand minimum.
With the Schwabe (1826–1867) and Spörer (1866–1880) sunspot data, the butterfly diagram of sunspot groups extends back till 1826. A recently developed method, which separates the wings of the butterfly diagram based on the long gaps present in sunspot group occurrences at different latitudinal bands, is used to separate the wings of the butterfly diagram. The cycle-to-cycle variation in the start (F), end (L), and highest (H) latitudes of the wings with respect to the strength of the wings are analyzed. On the whole, the wings of the stronger cycles tend to start at higher latitudes and have a greater extent. The time spans of the wings and the time difference between the wings in the northern hemisphere display a quasi-periodicity of 5–6 cycles. The average wing overlap is zero in the southern hemisphere, whereas it is 2–3 months in the north. A marginally significant oscillation of about 10 solar cycles is found in the asymmetry of the L latitudes. This latest, extended database of butterfly wings provides new observational constraints, regarding the spatio-temporal distribution of sunspot occurrences over the solar cycle, to solar dynamo models.
Modeling and data analysis of large-scale atmosphere dynamics associated with extreme weather
(2018)
In the last decades the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events like heat waves and heavy rainfall have increased and are at least partly linked to global warming. These events can have a strong impact on agricultural and economic production and, thereby, on society. Thus, it is important to improve our understanding of the physical processes leading to those extreme events in order to provide accurate near-term and long-term forecasts. Thermodynamic drivers associated with global warming are well understood, but dynamical aspects of the atmosphere much less so. The dynamical aspects, while less important than the thermodynamic drivers in regards to large-scale and long-time averaged effects, play a critical role in the formation of extremes.
The overall aim of this thesis is to improve our understanding of patterns, variability and trends in the global atmospheric circulation under a changing climate. In particular, in this dissertation I developed two new data-driven methods to quantitatively describe the dynamics of jet streams, Hadley cells and storm tracks. In addition, I introduce and validate a new statistical-dynamical atmosphere model that can be used to efficiently model the large-scale circulation.
First, I developed a scheme based on the Dijkstra ‘shortest-path’ algorithm to identify jet stream cores. Using reanalysis data, I found a significant change in jet stream strength and position over the last decades: Specifically, a decrease in wind speeds and a spatial shift toward the poles. This work also shows that the splitting or merging of the polar front jet stream and the subtropical jet stream depends on the season and longitudinal position. In a follow-up study, I analyzed trends in the latitudinal position of the poleward edge of the Hadley cell and subtropical jet stream core for all longitudes. These trends depend strongly on longitude and thus the impacts of tropical expansion might be pronounced in some regions and absent in others.
The second approach was to develop an empirical forecast method for European and Mediterranean winter precipitation. This prediction algorithm innovatively incorporates the spatial patterns of predictors in autumn using clustering analyses. I identified the most important precursors (snow cover in Eurasia, Barents and Kara sea ice concentrations as well as sea surface temperature in the Atlantic and Mediterranean region) for the precipitation prediction. This forecast algorithm had higher forecast skills than conventionally employed methods such as Canonical Correlation Analysis or operational systems using climate models.
The last approach was to examine the atmospheric circulation using the novel statisticaldynamical atmosphere model Aeolus. First, I validated the model’s depiction of the largescale circulation in terms of Hadley circulation, jet streams, storm tracks and planetary waves. To do so, I performed a parameter optimization using simulated annealing. Next, I investigated the sensitivity of the large-scale circulation to three different temperature components: global mean temperature, meridional temperature gradient and zonal temperature gradient. The model experiment showed that the strength of the Hadley cell, storm tracks and jet streams depend almost linearly on both the global mean temperature and the meridional temperature gradient, whereas the zonal temperature gradient is shown to have little or no influence. The magnitude of planetary waves is clearly affected by all three temperature components. Finally, the width of the Hadley cell behaves nonlinearly with respect to all three temperature components.
These findings might have profound consequences for climate modeling of the Mediterranean region. The latitudinal poleward trend of the Hadley cell edge position might become stronger under climate change according to the results with Aeolus. These changes would lead to a substantial reduction of the winter precipitation in the Mediterranean region. In this case seasonal empirical forecast methods, like the clustering-based prediction scheme, will play an important role for forecasting seasonal droughts in advance such that water managers and politicians can mitigate impacts.
Ferroic materials have attracted a lot of attention over the years due to their wide range of applications in sensors, actuators, and memory devices. Their technological applications originate from their unique properties such as ferroelectricity and piezoelectricity. In order to optimize these materials, it is necessary to understand the coupling between their nanoscale structure and transient response, which are related to the atomic structure of the unit cell.
In this thesis, synchrotron X-ray diffraction is used to investigate the structure of ferroelectric thin film capacitors during application of a periodic electric field. Combining electrical measurements with time-resolved X-ray diffraction on a working device allows for visualization of the interplay between charge flow and structural motion. This constitutes the core of this work. The first part of this thesis discusses the electrical and structural dynamics of a ferroelectric Pt/Pb(Zr0.2,Ti0.8)O3/SrRuO3 heterostructure during charging, discharging, and polarization reversal. After polarization reversal a non-linear piezoelectric response develops on a much longer time scale than the RC time constant of the device. The reversal process is inhomogeneous and induces a transient disordered domain state. The structural dynamics under sub-coercive field conditions show that this disordered domain state can be remanent and can be erased with an appropriate voltage pulse sequence. The frequency-dependent dynamic characterization of a Pb(Zr0.52,Ti0.48)O3 layer, at the morphotropic phase boundary, shows that at high frequency, the limited domain wall velocity causes a phase lag between the applied field and both the structural and electrical responses. An external modification of the RC time constant of the measurement delays the switching current and widens the electromechanical hysteresis loop while achieving a higher compressive piezoelectric strain within the crystal.
In the second part of this thesis, time-resolved reciprocal space maps of multiferroic BiFeO3 thin films were measured to identify the domain structure and investigate the development of an inhomogeneous piezoelectric response during the polarization reversal. The presence of 109° domains is evidenced by the splitting of the Bragg peak.
The last part of this work investigates the effect of an optically excited ultrafast strain or heat pulse propagating through a ferroelectric BaTiO3 layer, where we observed an additional current response due to the laser pulse excitation of the metallic bottom electrode of the heterostructure.
This publication based thesis, which consists of seven published articles, summarizes my contributions to the research field of laser excited ultrafast structural dynamics. The coherent and incoherent lattice dynamics on microscopic length scales are detected by ultrashort optical and X-ray pulses. The understanding of the complex physical processes is essential for future improvements of technological applications. For this purpose, tabletop soruces and large scale facilities, e.g. synchrotrons, are employed to study structural dynamics of longitudinal acoustic strain waves and heat transport. The investigated effects cover timescales from hundreds of femtoseconds up to several microseconds.
The main part of this thesis is dedicated to the investigation of tailored phonon wave packets propagating in perovskite nanostructures. Tailoring is achieved either by laser excitation of nanostructured bilayer samples or by a temporal series of laser pulses. Due to the propagation of longitudinal acoustic phonons, the out-of-plane lattice spacing of a thin film insulator-metal bilayer sample is modulated on an ultrafast timescale. This leads to an ultrafast modulation of the X-ray diffraction efficiency which is employed as a phonon Bragg switch to shorten hard X-ray pulses emitted from a 3rd generation synchrotron.
In addition, we have observed nonlinear mixing of high amplitude phonon wave packets which originates from an anharmonic interatomic potential. A chirped optical pulse sequence excites a narrow band phonon wave packet with specific momentum and energy. The second harmonic generation of these phonon wave packets is followed by ultrafast X-ray diffraction. Phonon upconversion takes place because the high amplitude phonon wave packet modulates the acoustic properties of the crystal which leads to self steepening and to the successive generation of higher harmonics of the phonon wave packet.
Furthermore, we have demonstrated ultrafast strain in direction parallel to the sample surface. Two consecutive so-called transient grating excitations displaced in space and time are used to coherently control thermal gradients and surface acoustic modes. The amplitude of the coherent and incoherent surface excursion is disentangled by time resolved X-ray reflectivity measurements. We calibrate the absolute amplitude of thermal and acoustic surface excursion with measurements of longitudinal phonon propagation. In addition, we develop a diffraction model which allows for measuring the surface excursion on an absolute length scale with sub-Äangström precision. Finally, I demonstrate full coherent control of an excited surface deformation by amplifying and suppressing thermal and coherent excitations at the surface of a laser-excited Yttrium-manganite sample.
The Sun is the nearest star to the Earth. It consists of an interior and an atmosphere. The convection zone is the outermost layer of the solar interior. A flux rope may emerge as a coherent structure from the convection zone into the solar atmosphere or be formed by magnetic reconnection in the atmosphere. A flux rope is a bundle of magnetic field lines twisting around an axis field line, creating a helical shape by which dense filament material can be supported against gravity. The flux rope is also considered as the key structure of the most energetic phenomena in the solar system, such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and flares. These magnetic flux ropes can produce severe geomagnetic storms. In particular, to improve the ability to forecast space weather, it is important to enrich our knowledge about the dynamic formation of flux ropes and the underlying physical mechanisms that initiate their eruption, such as a CME.
A confined eruption consists of a filament eruption and usually an associated are, but does not evolve into a CME; rather, the moving plasma is halted in the solar corona and usually seen to fall back. The first detailed observations of a confined filament eruption were obtained on 2002 May 27by the TRACE satellite in the 195 A band. So, in the Chapter 3, we focus on a flux rope instability model. A twisted flux rope can become unstable by entering the kink instability regime. We show that the kink instability, which occurs if the twist of a flux rope exceeds a critical value, is capable of initiating of an eruption. This model is tested against the well observed confined eruption on 2002 May 27 in a parametric magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation study that comprises all phases of the event. Very good agreement with the essential observed properties is obtained, only except for a relatively poor matching of the initial filament height.
Therefore, in Chapter 4, we submerge the center point of the flux rope deeper below the photosphere to obtain a flatter coronal rope section and a better matching with the initial height profile of the erupting filament. This implies a more realistic inclusion of the photospheric line tying. All basic assumptions and the other parameter settings are kept the same as in Chapter 3. This complement of the parametric study shows that the flux rope instability model can yield an even better match with the observational data. We also focus in Chapters 3 and 4 on the magnetic reconnection during the confined eruption, demonstrating that it occurs in two distinct locations and phases that correspond to the observed brightenings and changes of topology, and consider the fate of the erupting flux, which can reform a (less twisted) flux rope.
The Sun also produces series of homologous eruptions, i.e. eruptions which occur repetitively in the same active region and are of similar morphology. Therefore, in Chapter 5, we employ the reformed flux rope as a new initial condition, to investigate the possibility of subsequent homologous eruptions. Free magnetic energy is built up by imposing motions in the bottom boundary, such as converging motions, leading to flux cancellation. We apply converging motions in the sunspot area, such that a small part of the flux from the sunspots with different polarities is transported toward the polarity inversion line (PIL) and cancels with each other. The reconnection associated with the cancellation process forms more helical magnetic flux around the reformed flux rope, which leads to a second and a third eruption. In this study, we obtain the first MHD simulation results of a homologous sequence of eruptions that show a transition from a confined to two ejective eruptions, based on the reformation of a flux rope after each eruption.
The interaction between surfaces displaying end-grafted hydrophilic polymer brushes plays important roles in biology and in many wet-technological applications. The outer surfaces of Gram-negative bacteria, for example, are composed of lipopolysaccharide (LPS) molecules exposing oligo- and polysaccharides to the aqueous environment. This unique, structurally complex biological interface is of great scientific interest as it mediates the interaction of bacteria with neighboring bacteria in colonies and biofilms. The interaction between polymer-decorated surfaces is generally coupled to the distance-dependent conformation of the polymer chains. Therefore, structural insight into the interacting surfaces is a prerequisite to understand the interaction characteristics as well as the underlying physical mechanisms. This problem has been addressed by theory, but accurate experimental data on polymer conformations under confinement are rare, because obtaining perturbation-free structural insight into buried soft interfaces is inherently difficult.
In this thesis, lipid membrane surfaces decorated with hydrophilic polymers of technological and biological relevance are investigated under controlled interaction conditions, i.e., at defined surface separations. For this purpose, dedicated sample architectures and experimental tools are developed. Via ellipsometry and neutron reflectometry pressure-distance curves and distance-dependent polymer conformations in terms of brush compression and reciprocative interpenetration are determined. Additional element-specific structural insight into the end-point distribution of interacting brushes is obtained by standing-wave x-ray fluorescence (SWXF).
The methodology is first established for poly[ethylene glycol] (PEG) brushes of defined length and grafting density. For this system, neutron reflectometry revealed pronounced brush interpenetration, which is not captured in common brush theories and therefore motivates rigorous simulation-based treatments. In the second step the same approach is applied to realistic mimics of the outer surfaces of Gram-negative bacteria: monolayers of wild type LPSs extracted from E. Coli O55:B5 displaying strain-specific O-side chains. The neutron reflectometry experiments yield unprecedented structural insight into bacterial interactions, which are of great relevance for the properties of biofilms.
Modern gamma-ray telescopes, provide the main stream of data for astrophysicists in quest of detecting the sources of gamma rays such as active galactic nuclei (AGN). Many blazars have been detected with gamma-ray telescopes such as HESS, VERITAS, MAGIC and Fermi satellite as sources of gamma-rays with the energy E ≥ 100 GeV. These very-high-energy photons interact with extragalactic background light (EBL) producing ultra-relativistic electron-positron pairs. Observations with Fermi-LAT indicate that the GeV gamma-ray flux from some blazars is lower than that predicted from the full electromagnetic cascade. The pairs can induce electrostatic and electromagnetic instabilities. In this case, wave-particle interactions can reduce the energy of the pairs. Therefore, the collective plasma effects can also substantially suppress the GeV-band gamma-ray emission affecting as well the IGMF constraints. Using Particle in cell (PIC) simulations, we have revisited the issue of plasma instabilities induced by electron-positron beams in the fully ionized intergalactic medium. This problem is related to pair beams produced by TeV radiation of blazars. The main objective of our study is to clarify the feedback of the beam-driven instabilities on the pairs. The present dissertation provides new results regarding the plasma instabilities from blazar induced pair beams interacting with intergalactic medium. This clarifies the relevance of plasma instabilities and improves our understanding of blazars.