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Institute
- Institut für Geowissenschaften (256) (remove)
Previous studies suggested that electric and/or magnetic field fluctuations observed in the nighttime topside ionosphere at midlatitudes generally originate from quiet time nocturnal medium-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (MSTIDs). However, decisive evidences for the connection between the two have been missing. In this study we make use of the multispacecraft observations of midlatitude magnetic fluctuations (MMFs) in the nighttime topside ionosphere by the Swarm constellation. The analysis results show that the area hosting MMFs is elongated in the NW-SE (NE-SW) direction in the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere. The elongation direction and the magnetic field polarization support that the area hosting MMFs is nearly field aligned. All these properties of MMFs suggest that they have close relationship with MSTIDs. Expectation values of root-mean-square field-aligned currents associated with MMFs are up to about 4nA/m(2). MMF coherency significantly drops for longitudinal distances of 1 degrees.
Permafrost inundated since the last glacial maximum is degrading, potentially releasing trapped or stabilized greenhouse gases, but few observations of the depth of ice-bonded permafrost (IBP) below the seafloor exist for most of the arctic continental shelf. We use spectral ratios of the ambient vibration seismic wavefield, together with estimated shear wave velocity from the dispersion curves of surface waves, for estimating the thickness of the sediment overlying the IBP. Peaks in spectral ratios modeled for three-layered 1-D systems correspond with varying thickness of the unfrozen sediment. Seismic receivers were deployed on the seabed around Muostakh Island in the central Laptev Sea, Siberia. We derive depths of the IBP between 3.7 and 20.7m15%, increasing with distance from the shoreline. Correspondence between expected permafrost distribution, modeled response, and observational data suggests that the method is promising for the determination of the thickness of unfrozen sediment.
Earthquake clustering has proven the most useful tool to forecast changes in seismicity rates in the short and medium term (hours to months), and efforts are currently being made to extend the scope of such models to operational earthquake forecasting. The overarching goal of the research presented in this thesis is to improve physics-based earthquake forecasts, with a focus on aftershock sequences. Physical models of triggered seismicity are based on the redistribution of stresses in the crust, coupled with the rate-and-state constitutive law proposed by Dieterich to calculate changes in seismicity rate. This type of models are known as Coulomb- rate and-state (CRS) models. In spite of the success of the Coulomb hypothesis, CRS models typically performed poorly in comparison to statistical ones, and they have been underepresented in the operational forecasting context. In this thesis, I address some of these issues, and in particular these questions: (1) How can we realistically model the uncertainties and heterogeneity of the mainshock stress field? (2) What is the effect of time dependent stresses in the postseismic phase on seismicity? I focus on two case studies from different tectonic settings: the Mw 9.0 Tohoku megathrust and the Mw 6.0 Parkfield strike slip earthquake. I study aleatoric uncertainties using a Monte Carlo method. I find that the existence of multiple receiver faults is the most important source of intrinsic stress heterogeneity, and CRS models perform better when this variability is taken into account. Epistemic uncertainties inherited from the slip models also have a significant impact on the forecast, and I find that an ensemble model based on several slip distributions outperforms most individual models. I address the role of postseismic stresses due to aseismic slip on the mainshock fault (afterslip) and to the redistribution of stresses by previous aftershocks (secondary triggering). I find that modeling secondary triggering improves model performance. The effect of afterslip is less clear, and difficult to assess for near-fault aftershocks due to the large uncertainties of the afterslip models. Off-fault events, on the other hand, are less sensitive to the details of the slip distribution: I find that following the Tohoku earthquake, afterslip promotes seismicity in the Fukushima region. To evaluate the performance of the improved CRS models in a pseudo-operational context, I submitted them for independent testing to a collaborative experiment carried out by CSEP for the 2010-2012 Canterbury sequence. Preliminary results indicate that physical models generally perform well compared to statistical ones, suggesting that CRS models may have a role to play in the future of operational forecasting. To facilitate efforts in this direction, and to enable future studies of earthquake triggering by time dependent processes, I have made the code open source. In the final part of this thesis I summarize the capabilities of the program and outline technical aspects regarding performance and parallelization strategies.
Information on extreme precipitation for future climate is needed to assess the changes in the frequency and intensity of flooding. The primary source of information in climate change impact studies is climate model projections. However, due to the coarse resolution and biases of these models, they cannot be directly used in hydrological models. Hence, statistical downscaling is necessary to address climate change impacts at the catchment scale.
This study compares eight statistical downscaling methods (SDMs) often used in climate change impact studies. Four methods are based on change factors (CFs), three are bias correction (BC) methods, and one is a perfect prognosis method. The eight methods are used to downscale precipitation output from 15 regional climate models (RCMs) from the ENSEMBLES project for 11 catchments in Europe. The overall results point to an increase in extreme precipitation in most catchments in both winter and summer. For individual catchments, the downscaled time series tend to agree on the direction of the change but differ in the magnitude. Differences between the SDMs vary between the catchments and depend on the season analysed. Similarly, general conclusions cannot be drawn regarding the differences between CFs and BC methods. The performance of the BC methods during the control period also depends on the catchment, but in most cases they represent an improvement compared to RCM outputs. Analysis of the variance in the ensemble of RCMs and SDMs indicates that at least 30% and up to approximately half of the total variance is derived from the SDMs. This study illustrates the large variability in the expected changes in extreme precipitation and highlights the need for considering an ensemble of both SDMs and climate models. Recommendations are provided for the selection of the most suitable SDMs to include in the analysis.
Sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) based on radiolarian assemblage changes are estimated for the last 160 kyr, from a sediment core (Y9) recovered from Pukaki Saddle, northeast of Campbell Plateau. Site Y9 lies beneath Subantarctic Surface Water (SAW) immediately to the north of the Subantarctic Front (SAF), which in this region is bathymetrically constrained by the edges of Campbell Plateau and defines the northern boundary of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). Radiolarian assemblages are characterised by an exceptionally high abundance of the Antarctic to subantarctic species Antarctissa spp. (up to 68%), especially during glacial intervals. SST estimates are derived using Factor Analysis and the Modern Analog Technique. Both methods capture the glacial-interglacial (G-I) pattern. The SST reconstructions show the changing relative influence of distinct water masses during the past G-I cycle, with major temperature variations of the order of 7-9 degrees C at glacial Terminations. Glacials (marine isotope stages (MIS) 6 and 2) are associated with particularly cool SSTs that are indicative of a more vigorous SAF/ACC and an enhancement of the inflow through Pukaki Saddle and/or frequent development of cold-core eddies at the SAF. By contrast, the influence of warmer waters and relaxation of the ACC during interglacials can be inferred from temperatures slightly warmer (e.g., mid-Holocene) and/or comparable to present day (e.g., MIS 5e). During these intervals, relatively warmer temperatures most likely indicate a higher warmcore eddy activity due to a strengthened Subtropical Front and/or a weakened inflow of cool water through Pukaki Saddle and/or an increased stratification in the Campbell Plateau region. Furthermore, the SST record is characterised by an abrupt warming at ca. 10 kyr (i.e., Termination l), the occurrence of a reversal at Termination I, and a warming event at the end of MIS 4, coinciding with the A4 event in the Byrd ice core. These characteristics, together with the pronounced G-I cycle shown by the SST estimates, suggest that Site Y9 is influenced by major oceanographic changes in the SW Pacific and responds to thermal changes at high southern latitudes. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
High resolution isotopic (delta O-18 and delta C-13) investigations on endogenic carbonates (calcite/aragonite) from Tso Moriri Lake, NW Himalaya show dramatic fluctuations during the late glacial and the early Holocene, and a persistent enrichment trend during the late Holocene. Changes in this lake are largely governed by the [input (meltwater + monsoon precipitation)/evaporationj (WE) ratio, also reflected in changes in the carbonate mineralogy with aragonite being formed during periods of lowest I/E. Using new isotopic data on endogenic carbonates in combination with the available data on geochemistry, mineralogy, and reconstructed mean annual precipitation, we demonstrate that the late glacial and early Holocene carbonate delta O-18 variability resulted from fluctuating Indian summer monsoon (ISM) precipitation in NW Himalaya. This region experienced increasing ISM precipitation between ca. 13.1 and 11.7 cal ka and highest ISM precipitation during the early Holocene (11.2-8.5 cal ka). However, during the late Holocene, evaporation was the dominant control on the carbonate delta O-18. Regional comparison of reconstructed hydrological changes from Tso Moriri Lake with other archives from the Asian summer monsoon and westerlies domain shows that the intensified westerly influence that resulted in higher lake levels (after 8 cal ka) in central Asia was not strongly felt in NW Himalaya. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.