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Aims. In this study, we analyzed a filament system, which expanded between moving magnetic features (MMFs) of a decaying sunspot and opposite flux outside of the active region from the nearby quiet-Sun network. This configuration deviated from a classical arch filament system (AFS), which typically connects two pores in an emerging flux region. Thus, we called this system an extended AFS. We contrasted classical and extended AFSs with an emphasis on the complex magnetic structure of the latter. Furthermore, we examined the physical properties of the extended AFS and described its dynamics and connectivity. Methods. The extended AFS was observed with two instruments at the Dunn Solar Telescope (DST). The Rapid Oscillations in the Solar Atmosphere (ROSA) imager provided images in three different wavelength regions, which covered the dynamics of the extended AFS at different atmospheric heights. The Interferometric Bidimensional Spectropolarimeter (IBIS) provided spectroscopic Ha data and spectropolarimetric data that was obtained in the near-infrared (NIR) Call lambda 8542 angstrom line. We derived the corresponding line-of-sight (LOS) velocities and used He II lambda 304 angstrom extreme ultraviolet (EUV) images of the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) and LOS magnetograms of the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) as context data. Results. The NIR Call Stokes-V maps are not suitable to definitively define a clear polarity inversion line and to classify this chromospheric structure. Nevertheless, this unusual AFS connects the MMFs of a decaying sunspot with the network field. At the southern footpoint, we measured that the flux decreases over time. We find strong downflow velocities at the footpoints of the extended AFS, which increase in a time period of 30 min. The velocities are asymmetric at both footpoints with higher velocities at the southern footpoint. An EUV brigthening appears in one of the arch filaments, which migrates from the northern footpoint toward the southern one. This activation likely influences the increasing redshift at the southern footpoint. Conclusions. The extended AFS exhibits a similar morphology as classical AFSs, for example, threaded filaments of comparable length and width. Major differences concern the connection from MMFs around the sunspot with the flux of the neighboring quietSun network, converging footpoint motions, and longer lifetimes of individual arch filaments of about one hour, while the extended AFS is still very dynamic.
For three small, mountainous catchments in Germany two medium-range forecast systems are compared that predict precipitation for up to 5 days in advance. One system is composed of the global German weather service (DWD) model, GME, which is dynamically downscaled using the COSMO-EU regional model. The other system is an empirical (expanded) downscaling of the ECMWF model IFS. Forecasts are verified against multi-year daily observations, by applying standard skill scores to events of specified intensity. All event classes are skillfully predicted by the empirical system for up to five days lead time. For the available prediction range of one to two days it is superior to the dynamical system.
Dynamical organization of connection weights is studied in scale-free networks of chaotic oscillators, where the coupling strength of a node from its neighbors develops adaptively according to the local synchronization property between the node and its neighbors. We find that when complete synchronization is achieved, the coupling strength becomes weighted and correlated with the topology due to a hierarchical transition to synchronization in heterogeneous networks. Importantly, such an adaptive process enhances significantly the synchronizability of the networks, which could have meaningful implications in the manipulation of dynamical networks
We study numerically how the energy spreads over a finite disordered nonlinear one-dimensional lattice, where all linear modes are exponentially localized by disorder. We establish emergence of dynamical thermalization characterized as an ergodic chaotic dynamical state with a Gibbs distribution over the modes. Our results show that the fraction of thermalizing modes is finite and grows with the nonlinearity strength.
In this thesis, dynamical structures and manifolds in closed chaotic flows will be investigated. The knowledge about the dynamical structures (and manifolds) of a system is of importance, since they provide us first information about the dynamics of the system - means, with their help we are able to characterize the flow and maybe even to forecast it`s dynamics. The visualization of such structures in closed chaotic flows is a difficult and often long-lasting process. Here, the so-called 'Leaking-method' will be introduced, in examples of simple mathematical maps as the baker- or sine-map, with which we are able to visualize subsets of the manifolds of the system`s chaotic saddle. Comparisons between the visualized manifolds and structures traced out by chemical or biological reactions superimposed on the same flow will be done in the example of a kinematic model of the Gulf Stream. It will be shown that with the help of the leaking method dynamical structures can be also visualized in environmental systems. In the example of a realistic model of the Mediterranean Sea, the leaking method will be extended to the 'exchange-method'. The exchange method allows us to characterize transport between two regions, to visualize transport routes and their exchange sets and to calculate the exchange times. Exchange times and sets will be shown and calculated for a northern and southern region in the western basin of the Mediterranean Sea. Furthermore, mixing properties in the Earth mantle will be characterized and geometrical properties of manifolds in a 3dimensional mathematical model (ABC map) will be investigated.
Dynamical simulation of the “velocity-porosity” reduction in observed strength of stellar wind lines
(2007)
I use dynamical simulations of the line-driven instability to examine the potential role of the resulting flow structure in reducing the observed strength of wind absorption lines. Instead of the porosity length formalism used to model effects on continuum absorption, I suggest reductions in line strength can be better characterized in terms of a velocity clumping factor that is insensitive to spatial scales. Examples of dynamic spectra computed directly from instability simulations do exhibit a net reduction in absorption, but only at a modest 10-20% level that is well short of the ca. factor 10 required by recent analyses of PV lines.
We propose a novel approach based on the fluctuation of similarity to identify regimes of distinct dynamical complexity in short time series. A statistical test is developed to estimate the significance of the identified transitions. Our method is verified by uncovering bifurcation structures in several paradigmatic models, providing more complex transitions compared with traditional Lyapunov exponents. In a real-world situation, we apply this method to identify millennial-scale dynamical transitions in Plio-Pleistocene proxy records of the South Asian summer monsoon system. We infer that many of these transitions are induced by the external forcing of the solar insolation and are also affected by internal forcing on Monsoonal dynamics, i.e., the glaciation cycles of the Northern Hemisphere and the onset of the Walker circulation.
Ongoing development of dynamical atmosphere-ocean general circulation models keep expectations high regarding seasonal predictions of Indian monsoon rainfall. This study compares past and present skill of four currently operating forecasting systems, CFSv2 from NCEP, ENSEMBLES, System 4 and the newest SEAS5 from ECMWF, by analysing correlations of respective hindcasts with observed all-India summer rainfall. For the common time period 1982-2005, only ENSEMBLES and CFSv2 give significantly skilful forecasts. It is shown that skill is highly dependent on the chosen time period. Especially the intense El Nino of 1997 seems to degrade the predictions, most notably for SEAS4 and SEAS5 which seem to be linked to El Nino too strongly. We show that by discarding that year, a regime shift in the 1990s is no longer visible. Overall, we observe a convergence of skill towards the present with correlations of about 0.4 for CFSv2 and of 0.6 for System 4 and SEAS5.