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Towards the assimilation of tree-ring-width records using ensemble Kalman filtering techniques
(2015)
This paper investigates the applicability of the Vaganov–Shashkin–Lite (VSL) forward model for tree-ring-width chronologies as observation operator within a proxy data assimilation (DA) setting. Based on the principle of limiting factors, VSL combines temperature and moisture time series in a nonlinear fashion to obtain simulated TRW chronologies. When used as observation operator, this modelling approach implies three compounding, challenging features: (1) time averaging, (2) “switching recording” of 2 variables and (3) bounded response windows leading to “thresholded response”. We generate pseudo-TRW observations from a chaotic 2-scale dynamical system, used as a cartoon of the atmosphere-land system, and attempt to assimilate them via ensemble Kalman filtering techniques. Results within our simplified setting reveal that VSL’s nonlinearities may lead to considerable loss of assimilation skill, as compared to the utilization of a time-averaged (TA) linear observation operator. In order to understand this undesired effect, we embed VSL’s formulation into the framework of fuzzy logic (FL) theory, which thereby exposes multiple representations of the principle of limiting factors. DA experiments employing three alternative growth rate functions disclose a strong link between the lack of smoothness of the growth rate function and the loss of optimality in the estimate of the TA state. Accordingly, VSL’s performance as observation operator can be enhanced by resorting to smoother FL representations of the principle of limiting factors. This finding fosters new interpretations of tree-ring-growth limitation processes.
Towards the assimilation of tree-ring-width records using ensemble Kalman filtering techniques
(2016)
This paper investigates the applicability of the Vaganov–Shashkin–Lite (VSL) forward model for tree-ring-width chronologies as observation operator within a proxy data assimilation (DA) setting. Based on the principle of limiting factors, VSL combines temperature and moisture time series in a nonlinear fashion to obtain simulated TRW chronologies. When used as observation operator, this modelling approach implies three compounding, challenging features: (1) time averaging, (2) “switching recording” of 2 variables and (3) bounded response windows leading to “thresholded response”. We generate pseudo-TRW observations from a chaotic 2-scale dynamical system, used as a cartoon of the atmosphere-land system, and attempt to assimilate them via ensemble Kalman filtering techniques. Results within our simplified setting reveal that VSL’s nonlinearities may lead to considerable loss of assimilation skill, as compared to the utilization of a time-averaged (TA) linear observation operator. In order to understand this undesired effect, we embed VSL’s formulation into the framework of fuzzy logic (FL) theory, which thereby exposes multiple representations of the principle of limiting factors. DA experiments employing three alternative growth rate functions disclose a strong link between the lack of smoothness of the growth rate function and the loss of optimality in the estimate of the TA state. Accordingly, VSL’s performance as observation operator can be enhanced by resorting to smoother FL representations of the principle of limiting factors. This finding fosters new interpretations of tree-ring-growth limitation processes.
TDS-1 GNSS Reflectometry
(2018)
This study presents the development and a systematic evaluation study of GNSS reflectometry wind speeds. After establishing a wind speed retrieval algorithm, UK TechDemoSat-1 (TDS-1) derived winds, from May 2015 to July 2017, are compared to the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT). ERA-Interim wind fields of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and in situ observation from Tropical Atmosphere Ocean buoy array in the Pacific are taken as reference. One-year averaged TDS-1 global winds demonstrate small differences with ECMWF in a majority of areas as well as discuss under- and overestimations. The pioneering TDS-1 winds demonstrate a root-mean-squared error (RMSE) and bias of 2.77 and -0.33 m/s, which are comparable to the RMSE and bias derived by ASCAT winds, as large as 2.31 and 0.25 m/s, respectively. Using buoys measurements as reference, RMSE and bias of 2.23 and -0.03 m/s for TDS-1 as well as 1.40 and -0.68 m/s for ASCAT are obtained. Utilizing rain microwave-infrared estimates of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, rain-affected observation of both ASCAT and TDS-1 are collected and evaluated. Although ASCAT winds show a significant performance degradation resulting in an RMSE and bias of 3.16 and 1.03 m/s, respectively, during rain condition, TDS-1 shows a more reliable performance with an RMSE and bias of 2.94 and -0.21 m/s, respectively, which indicates the promising capability of GNSS forward scattering for wind retrievals during rain. A decrease in TDS-1-derived bistatic radar cross sections during rain events, at weak winds, is also demonstrated.
A Hamiltonian system in potential form (formula in the original abstract) subject to smooth constraints on q can be viewed as a Hamiltonian system on a manifold, but numerical computations must be performed in Rn. In this paper methods which reduce "Hamiltonian differential algebraic equations" to ODEs in Euclidean space are examined. The authors study the construction of canonical parameterizations or local charts as well as methods based on the construction of ODE systems in the space in which the constraint manifold is embedded which preserve the constraint manifold as an invariant manifold. In each case, a Hamiltonian system of ordinary differential equations is produced. The stability of the constraint invariants and the behavior of the original Hamiltonian along solutions are investigated both numerically and analytically.
Data-driven prediction and physics-agnostic machine-learning methods have attracted increased interest in recent years achieving forecast horizons going well beyond those to be expected for chaotic dynamical systems. In a separate strand of research data-assimilation has been successfully used to optimally combine forecast models and their inherent uncertainty with incoming noisy observations. The key idea in our work here is to achieve increased forecast capabilities by judiciously combining machine-learning algorithms and data assimilation. We combine the physics-agnostic data -driven approach of random feature maps as a forecast model within an ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation procedure. The machine-learning model is learned sequentially by incorporating incoming noisy observations. We show that the obtained forecast model has remarkably good forecast skill while being computationally cheap once trained. Going beyond the task of forecasting, we show that our method can be used to generate reliable ensembles for probabilistic forecasting as well as to learn effective model closure in multi-scale systems. (C) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
The success of the ensemble Kalman filter has triggered a strong interest in expanding its scope beyond classical state estimation problems. In this paper, we focus on continuous-time data assimilation where the model and measurement errors are correlated and both states and parameters need to be identified. Such scenarios arise from noisy and partial observations of Lagrangian particles which move under a stochastic velocity field involving unknown parameters. We take an appropriate class of McKean–Vlasov equations as the starting point to derive ensemble Kalman–Bucy filter algorithms for combined state and parameter estimation. We demonstrate their performance through a series of increasingly complex multi-scale model systems.
The success of the ensemble Kalman filter has triggered a strong interest in expanding its scope beyond classical state estimation problems. In this paper, we focus on continuous-time data assimilation where the model and measurement errors are correlated and both states and parameters need to be identified. Such scenarios arise from noisy and partial observations of Lagrangian particles which move under a stochastic velocity field involving unknown parameters. We take an appropriate class of McKean-Vlasov equations as the starting point to derive ensemble Kalman-Bucy filter algorithms for combined state and parameter estimation. We demonstrate their performance through a series of increasingly complex multi-scale model systems.
Many methods have been proposed for the stabilization of higher index differential-algebraic equations (DAEs). Such methods often involve constraint differentiation and problem stabilization, thus obtaining a stabilized index reduction. A popular method is Baumgarte stabilization, but the choice of parameters to make it robust is unclear in practice. Here we explain why the Baumgarte method may run into trouble. We then show how to improve it. We further develop a unifying theory for stabilization methods which includes many of the various techniques proposed in the literature. Our approach is to (i) consider stabilization of ODEs with invariants, (ii) discretize the stabilizing term in a simple way, generally different from the ODE discretization, and (iii) use orthogonal projections whenever possible. The best methods thus obtained are related to methods of coordinate projection. We discuss them and make concrete algorithmic suggestions.
Many methods have been proposed for the simulation of constrained mechanical systems. The most obvious of these have mild instabilities and drift problems. Consequently, stabilization techniques have been proposed A popular stabilization method is Baumgarte's technique, but the choice of parameters to make it robust has been unclear in practice. Some of the simulation methods that have been proposed and used in computations are reviewed here, from a stability point of view. This involves concepts of differential-algebraic equation (DAE) and ordinary differential equation (ODE) invariants. An explanation of the difficulties that may be encountered using Baumgarte's method is given, and a discussion of why a further quest for better parameter values for this method will always remain frustrating is presented. It is then shown how Baumgarte's method can be improved. An efficient stabilization technique is proposed, which may employ explicit ODE solvers in case of nonstiff or highly oscillatory problems and which relates to coordinate projection methods. Examples of a two-link planar robotic arm and a squeezing mechanism illustrate the effectiveness of this new stabilization method.
We consider the numerical treatment of Hamiltonian systems that contain a potential which grows large when the system deviates from the equilibrium value of the potential. Such systems arise, e.g., in molecular dynamics simulations and the spatial discretization of Hamiltonian partial differential equations. Since the presence of highly oscillatory terms in the solutions forces any explicit integrator to use very small step size, the numerical integration of such systems provides a challenging task. It has been suggested before to replace the strong potential by a holonomic constraint that forces the solutions to stay at the equilibrium value of the potential. This approach has, e.g., been successfully applied to the bond stretching in molecular dynamics simulations. In other cases, such as the bond-angle bending, this methods fails due to the introduced rigidity. Here we give a careful analysis of the analytical problem by means of a smoothing operator. This will lead us to the notion of the smoothed dynamics of a highly oscillatory Hamiltonian system. Based on our analysis, we suggest a new constrained formulation that maintains the flexibility of the system while at the same time suppressing the high-frequency components in the solutions and thus allowing for larger time steps. The new constrained formulation is Hamiltonian and can be discretized by the well-known SHAKE method.