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Analysis and modeling of transient earthquake patterns and their dependence on local stress regimes
(2015)
Investigations in the field of earthquake triggering and associated interactions, which includes aftershock triggering as well as induced seismicity, is important for seismic hazard assessment due to earthquakes destructive power. One of the approaches to study earthquake triggering and their interactions is the use of statistical earthquake models, which are based on knowledge of the basic seismicity properties, in particular, the magnitude distribution and spatiotemporal properties of the triggered events.
In my PhD thesis I focus on some specific aspects of aftershock properties, namely, the relative seismic moment release of the aftershocks with respect to the mainshocks; the spatial correlation between aftershock occurrence and fault deformation; and on the influence of aseismic transients on the aftershock parameter estimation. For the analysis of aftershock sequences I choose a statistical approach, in particular, the well known Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model, which accounts for the input of background and triggered seismicity. For my specific purposes, I develop two ETAS model modifications in collaboration with Sebastian Hainzl. By means of this approach, I estimate the statistical aftershock parameters and performed simulations of aftershock sequences as well.
In the case of seismic moment release of aftershocks, I focus on the ratio of cumulative seismic moment release with respect to the mainshocks. Specifically, I investigate the ratio with respect to the focal mechanism of the mainshock and estimate an effective magnitude, which represents the cumulative aftershock energy (similar to Bath's law, which defines the average difference between mainshock and the largest aftershock magnitudes). Furthermore, I compare the observed seismic moment ratios with the results of the ETAS simulations. In particular, I test a restricted ETAS (RETAS) model which is based on results of a clock advanced model and static stress triggering.
To analyze spatial variations of triggering parameters I focus in my second approach on the aftershock occurrence triggered by large mainshocks and the study of the aftershock parameter distribution and their spatial correlation with the coseismic/postseismic slip and interseismic locking. To invert the aftershock parameters I improve the modified ETAS (m-ETAS) model, which is able to take the extension of the mainshock rupture into account. I compare the results obtained by the classical approach with the output of the m-ETAS model.
My third approach is concerned with the temporal clustering of seismicity, which might not only be related to earthquake-earthquake interactions, but also to a time-dependent background rate, potentially biasing the parameter estimations. Thus, my coauthors and I also applied a modification of the ETAS model, which is able to take into account time-dependent background activity. It can be applicable for two different cases: when an aftershock catalog has a temporal incompleteness or when the background seismicity rate changes with time, due to presence of aseismic forces.
An essential part of any research is the testing of the developed models using observational data sets, which are appropriate for the particular study case. Therefore, in the case of seismic moment release I use the global seismicity catalog. For the spatial distribution of triggering parameters I exploit two aftershock sequences of the Mw8.8 2010 Maule (Chile) and Mw 9.0 2011 Tohoku (Japan) mainshocks. In addition, I use published geodetic slip models of different authors. To test our ability to detect aseismic transients my coauthors and I use the data sets from Western Bohemia (Central Europe) and California.
Our results indicate that:
(1) the seismic moment of aftershocks with respect to mainshocks depends on the static stress changes and is maximal for the normal, intermediate for thrust and minimal for strike-slip stress regimes, where the RETAS model shows a good correspondence with the results;
(2) The spatial distribution of aftershock parameters, obtained by the m-ETAS model, shows anomalous values in areas of reactivated crustal fault systems. In addition, the aftershock density is found to be correlated with coseismic slip gradient, afterslip, interseismic coupling and b-values. Aftershock seismic moment is positively correlated with the areas of maximum coseismic slip and interseismically locked areas. These correlations might be related to the stress level or to material properties variations in space;
(3) Ignoring aseismic transient forcing or temporal catalog incompleteness can lead to the significant under- or overestimation of the underlying trigger parameters. In the case when a catalog is complete, this method helps to identify aseismic sources.
Stream water and groundwater are important fresh water resources but their water quality is deteriorated by harmful solutes introduced by human activities. The interface between stream water and the subsurface water is an important zone for retention, transformation and attenuation of these solutes. Streambed structures enhance these processes by increased water and solute exchange across this interface, denoted as hyporheic exchange.
This thesis investigates the influence of hydrological and morphological factors on hyporheic water and solute exchange as well as redox-reactions in fluvial streambed structures on the intermediate scale (10–30m). For this purpose, a three-dimensional numerical modeling approach for coupling stream water flow with porous media flow is used. Multiple steady state stream water flow scenarios over different generic pool-riffle morphologies and a natural in-stream gravel bar are simulated by a computational fluid dynamics code that provides the hydraulic head distribution at the streambed. These heads are subsequently used as the top boundary condition of a reactive transport groundwater model of the subsurface beneath the streambed. Ambient groundwater that naturally interacts with the stream water is considered in scenarios of different magnitudes of downwelling stream water (losing case) and upwelling groundwater (gaining case). Also, the neutral case, where stream stage and groundwater levels are balanced is considered. Transport of oxygen, nitrate and dissolved organic carbon and their reaction by aerobic respiration and denitrification are modeled.
The results show that stream stage and discharge primarily induce hyporheic exchange flux and solute transport with implications for specific residence times and reactions at both the fully and partially submerged structures. Gaining and losing conditions significantly diminish the extent of the hyporheic zone, the water exchange flux, and shorten residence times for both the fully and partially submerged structures. With increasing magnitude of gaining or losing conditions, these metrics exponentially decrease.
Stream water solutes are transported mainly advectively into the hyporheic zone and hence their influx corresponds directly to the infiltrating water flux. Aerobic respiration takes place in the shallow streambed sediments, coinciding to large parts with the extent of the hyporheic exchange flow. Denitrification occurs mainly as a “reactive fringe” surrounding the aerobic zone, where oxygen concentration is low and still a sufficient amount of stream water carbon source is available. The solute consumption rates and the efficiency of the aerobic and anaerobic reactions depend primarily on the available reactive areas and the residence times, which are both controlled by the interplay between hydraulic head distribution at the streambed and the gradients between stream stage and ambient groundwater. Highest solute consumption rates can be expected under neutral conditions, where highest solute flux, longest residence times and largest extent of the hyporheic exchange occur. The results of this thesis show that streambed structures on the intermediate scale have a significant potential to contribute to a net solute turnover that can support a healthy status of the aquatic ecosystem.
Continental rifts are excellent regions where the interplay between extension, the build-up of topography, erosion and sedimentation can be evaluated in the context of landscape evolution. Rift basins also constitute important archives that potentially record the evolution and migration of species and the change of sedimentary conditions as a result of climatic change. Finally, rifts have increasingly become targets of resource exploration, such as hydrocarbons or geothermal systems. The study of extensional processes and the factors that further modify the mainly climate-driven surface process regime helps to identify changes in past and present tectonic and geomorphic processes that are ultimately recorded in rift landscapes.
The Cenozoic East African Rift System (EARS) is an exemplary continental rift system and ideal natural laboratory to observe such interactions. The eastern and western branches of the EARS constitute first-order tectonic and topographic features in East Africa, which exert a profound influence on the evolution of topography, the distribution and amount of rainfall, and thus the efficiency of surface processes. The Kenya Rift is an integral part of the eastern branch of the EARS and is characterized by high-relief rift escarpments bounded by normal faults, gently tilted rift shoulders, and volcanic centers along the rift axis.
Considering the Cenozoic tectonic processes in the Kenya Rift, the tectonically controlled cooling history of rift shoulders, the subsidence history of rift basins, and the sedimentation along and across the rift, may help to elucidate the morphotectonic evolution of this extensional province. While tectonic forcing of surface processes may play a minor role in the low-strain rift on centennial to millennial timescales, it may be hypothesized that erosion and sedimentation processes impacted by climate shifts associated with pronounced changes in the availability in moisture may have left important imprints in the landscape.
In this thesis I combined thermochronological, geomorphic field observations, and morphometry of digital elevation models to reconstruct exhumation processes and erosion rates, as well as the effects of climate on the erosion processes in different sectors of the rift. I present three sets of results: (1) new thermochronological data from the northern and central parts of the rift to quantitatively constrain the Tertiary exhumation and thermal evolution of the Kenya Rift. (2) 10Be-derived catchment-wide mean denudation rates from the northern, central and southern rift that characterize erosional processes on millennial to present-day timescales; and (3) paleo-denudation rates in the northern rift to constrain climatically controlled shifts in paleoenvironmental conditions during the early Holocene (African Humid Period).
Taken together, my studies show that time-temperature histories derived from apatite fission track (AFT) analysis, zircon (U-Th)/He dating, and thermal modeling bracket the onset of rifting in the Kenya Rift between 65-50 Ma and about 15 Ma to the present. These two episodes are marked by rapid exhumation and, uplift of the rift shoulders. Between 45 and 15 Ma the margins of the rift experienced very slow erosion/exhumation, with the accommodation of sediments in the rift basin.
In addition, I determined that present-day denudation rates in sparsely vegetated parts of the Kenya Rift amount to 0.13 mm/yr, whereas denudation rates in humid and more densely vegetated sectors of the rift flanks reach a maximum of 0.08 mm/yr, despite steeper hillslopes. I inferred that hillslope gradient and vegetation cover control most of the variation in denudation rates across the Kenya Rift today. Importantly, my results support the notion that vegetation cover plays a fundamental role in determining the voracity of erosion of hillslopes through its stabilizing effects on the land surface.
Finally, in a pilot study I highlighted how paleo-denudation rates in climatic threshold areas changed significantly during times of transient hydrologic conditions and involved a sixfold increase in erosion rates during increased humidity. This assessment is based on cosmogenic nuclide (10Be) dating of quartzitic deltaic sands that were deposited in the northern Kenya Rift during a highstand of Lake Suguta, which was associated with the Holocene African Humid Period. Taken together, my new results document the role of climate variability in erosion processes that impact climatic threshold environments, which may provide a template for potential future impacts of climate-driven changes in surface processes in the course of Global Change.
This study presents the development of 1D and 2D Surface Evolution Codes (SECs) and their coupling to any lithospheric-scale (thermo-)mechanical code with a quadrilateral structured surface mesh.
Both SECs involve diffusion as approach for hillslope processes and the stream power law to reflect riverbed incision. The 1D SEC settles sediment that was produced by fluvial incision in the appropriate minimum, while the supply-limited 2D SEC DANSER uses a fast filling algorithm to model sedimantation. It is based on a cellular automaton. A slope-dependent factor in the sediment flux extends the diffusion equation to nonlinear diffusion. The discharge accumulation is achieved with the D8-algorithm and an improved drainage accumulation routine. Lateral incision enhances the incision's modelling. Following empirical laws, it incises channels of several cells width.
The coupling method enables different temporal and spatial resolutions of the SEC and the thermo-mechanical code. It transfers vertical as well as horizontal displacements to the surface model. A weighted smoothing of the 3D surface displacements is implemented. The smoothed displacement vectors transmit the deformation by bilinear interpolation to the surface model. These interpolation methods ensure mass conservation in both directions and prevent the two surfaces from drifting apart.
The presented applications refer to the evolution of the Pamir orogen. A calibration of DANSER's parameters with geomorphological data and a DEM as initial topography highlights the advantage of lateral incision. Preserving the channel width and reflecting incision peaks in narrow channels, this closes the huge gap between current orogen-scale incision models and observed topographies.
River capturing models in a system of fault-bounded block rotations reaffirm the importance of the lateral incision routine for capturing events with channel initiation. The models show a low probability of river capturings with large deflection angles. While the probability of river capturing is directly depending on the uplift rate, the erodibility inside of a dip-slip fault speeds up headward erosion along the fault: The model's capturing speed increases within a fault.
Coupling DANSER with the thermo-mechanical code SLIM 3D emphasizes the versatility of the SEC. While DANSER has minor influence on the lithospheric evolution of an indenter model, the brittle surface deformation is strongly affected by its sedimentation, widening a basin in between two forming orogens and also the southern part of the southern orogen to south, east and west.
The overarching goal of this dissertation is to provide a better understanding of the role of wind and water in shaping Earth’s Cenozoic orogenic plateaus - prominent high-elevation, low relief sectors in the interior of Cenozoic mountain belts. In particular, the feedbacks between surface uplift, the build-up of topography and ensuing changes in precipitation, erosion, and vegetation patterns are addressed in light of past and future climate change. Regionally, the study focuses on the two world’s largest plateaus, the Altiplano-Puna Plateau of the Andes and Tibetan Plateau, both characterized by average elevations of >4 km. Both plateaus feature high, deeply incised flanks with pronounced gradients in rainfall, vegetation, hydrology, and surface processes. These characteristics are rooted in the role of plateaus to act as efficient orographic barriers to rainfall and to force changes in atmospheric flow.
The thesis examines the complex topics of tectonic and climatic forcing of the surface-process regime on three different spatial and temporal scales: (1) bedrock wind-erosion rates are quantified in the arid Qaidam Basin of NW Tibet over millennial timescales using cosmogenic radionuclide dating; (2) present-day stable isotope composition in rainfall is examined across the south-central Andes in three transects between 22° S and 28° S; these data are modeled and assessed with remotely sensed rainfall data of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer; (3) finally, a 2.5-km-long Mio-Pliocene sedimentary record of the intermontane Angastaco Basin (25°45’ S, 66°00’ W) is presented in the context of hydrogen and carbon compositions of molecular lipid biomarker, and oxygen and carbon isotopes obtained from pedogenic carbonates; these records are compared to other environmental proxies, including hydrated volcanic glass shards from volcanic ashes intercalated in the sedimentary strata.
There are few quantitative estimates of eolian bedrock-removal rates from arid, low relief landscapes. Wind-erosion rates from the western Qaidam Basin based on cosmogenic 10Be measurements document erosion rates between 0.05 to 0.4 mm/yr. This finding indicates that in arid environments with strong winds, hyperaridity, exposure of friable strata, and ongoing rock deformation and uplift, wind erosion can outpace fluvial erosion. Large eroded sediment volumes within the Qaidam Basin and coeval dust deposition on the Chinese Loess plateau, exemplify the importance of dust production within arid plateau environments for marine and terrestrial depositional processes, but also health issues and fertilization of soils.
In the south-central Andes, the analysis of 234 stream-water samples for oxygen and hydrogen reveals that areas experiencing deep convective storms do not show the commonly observed patterns of isotopic fractionation and the expected co-varying relationships between oxygen and hydrogen with increasing elevation. These convective storms are formed over semi-arid intermontane basins in the transition between the broken foreland of the Sierras Pampeanas, the Eastern Cordillera, and the Puna Plateau in the interior of the orogen. Here, convective rainfall dominates the precipitation budget and no systematic stable isotope-elevation relationship exists. Regions to the north, in the transition between the broken foreland and the Subandean foreland fold-and-thrust belt, the impact of convection is subdued, with lower degrees of storminess and a stronger expected isotope-elevation relationship. This finding of present-day fractionation trends of meteoric water is of great importance for paleoenvironmental studies in attempts to use stable isotope relationships in the reconstruction of paleoelevations.
The third part of the thesis focuses on the paleohydrological characteristics of the Mio-Pliocene (10-2 Ma) Angastaco Basin sedimentary record, which reveals far-reaching environmental changes during Andean uplift and orographic barrier formation. A precipitation- evapotranspiration record identifies the onset of a precipitation regime related to the South American Low Level Jet at this latitude after 9 Ma. Humid foreland conditions existed until 7 Ma, followed by orographic barrier uplift to the east of the present-day Angastaco Basin. This was superseded by rapid (~0.5 Myr) aridification in an intermontane basin, highlighting the effects of eastward-directed deformation. A transition in vegetation cover from a humid C3 forest ecosystem to semi-arid C4-dominated vegetation was coeval with continued basin uplift to modern elevations.
Development of geophysical methods to characterize methane hydrate reservoirs on a laboratory scale
(2015)
Gas hydrates are crystalline solids composed of water and gas molecules. They are stable at elevated pressure and low temperatures. Therefore, natural gas hydrate deposits occur at continental margins, permafrost areas, deep lakes, and deep inland seas. During hydrate formation, the water molecules rearrange to form cavities which host gas molecules. Due to the high pressure during hydrate formation, significant amounts of gas can be stored in hydrate structures. The water-gas ratio hereby can reach up to 1:172 at 0°C and atmospheric pressure. Natural gas hydrates predominantly contain methane. Because methane constitutes both a fuel and a greenhouse gas, gas hydrates are a potential energy resource as well as a potential source for greenhouse gas.
This study investigates the physical properties of methane hydrate bearing sediments on a laboratory scale. To do so, an electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) array was developed and mounted in a large reservoir simulator (LARS). For the first time, the ERT array was applied to hydrate saturated sediment samples under controlled temperature, pressure, and hydrate saturation conditions on a laboratory scale. Typically, the pore space of (marine) sediments is filled with electrically well conductive brine. Because hydrates constitute an electrical isolator, significant contrasts regarding the electrical properties of the pore space emerge during hydrate formation and dissociation. Frequent measurements during hydrate formation experiments permit the recordings of the spatial resistivity distribution inside LARS. Those data sets are used as input for a new data processing routine which transfers the spatial resistivity distribution into the spatial distribution of hydrate saturation. Thus, the changes of local hydrate saturation can be monitored with respect to space and time.
This study shows that the developed tomography yielded good data quality and resolved even small amounts of hydrate saturation inside the sediment sample. The conversion algorithm transforming the spatial resistivity distribution into local hydrate saturation values yielded the best results using the Archie-var-phi relation. This approach considers the increasing hydrate phase as part of the sediment frame, metaphorically reducing the sample’s porosity. In addition, the tomographical measurements showed that fast lab based hydrate formation processes cause small crystallites to form which tend to recrystallize.
Furthermore, hydrate dissociation experiments via depressurization were conducted in order to mimic the 2007/2008 Mallik field trial. It was observed that some patterns in gas and water flow could be reproduced, even though some setup related limitations arose.
In two additional long-term experiments the feasibility and performance of CO2-CH4 hydrate exchange reactions were studied in LARS. The tomographical system was used to monitor the spatial hydrate distribution during the hydrate formation stage. During the subsequent CO2 injection, the tomographical array allowed to follow the CO2 migration front inside the sediment sample and helped to identify the CO2 breakthrough.