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There is a growing recognition that a transition to a sustainable low-carbon society is urgently needed. This transition takes place at multiple and complementary scales, including bottom-up approaches such as community-based initiatives (CBIs). However, empirical research on CBIs has focused until now on anecdotal evidence and little work has been done to quantitatively assess their impact in terms of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In this paper, we analyze 38 European initiatives across the food, energy, transport, and waste sectors to address the following questions: How can the GHG reduction potential of CBIs be quantified and analyzed in a systematic manner across different sectors? What is the GHG mitigation potential of CBIs and how does the reduction potential differ across domains? Through the comparison of the emission intensity arising from the goods and services the CBIs provide in relation to a business-as-usual scenario, we present the potential they have across different activities. This constitutes the foundational step to upscaling and further understanding their potential contribution to achieving climate change mitigation targets. Our findings indicate that energy generation through renewable sources, changes in personal transportation, and dietary change present by far the highest GHG mitigation activities analyzed, since they reduce the carbon footprint of CBI beneficiaries by 24%, 11%, and 7%, respectively. In contrast, the potential for some activities, such as locally grown organic food, is limited. The service provided by these initiatives only reduces the carbon footprint by 0.1%. Overall, although the proliferation of CBIs is very desirable from a climate change mitigation perspective it is necessary to stress that bottom-up initiatives present other important positive dimensions besides GHG mitigation. These initiatives also hold the potential of improving community resilience by strengthening local economies and enhancing social cohesion.
Models of ring current electron dynamics unavoidably contain uncertainties in boundary conditions, electric and magnetic fields, electron scattering rates, and plasmapause location. Model errors can accumulate with time and result in significant deviations of model predictions from observations. Data assimilation offers useful tools which can combine physics-based models and measurements to improve model predictions. In this study, we systematically analyze performance of the Kalman filter applied to a log-transformed convection model of ring current electrons and Van Allen Probe data. We consider long-term dynamics of mu = 2.3 MeV/G and K = 0.3 G(1/2) R-E electrons from 1 February 2013 to 16 June 2013. By using synthetic data, we show that the Kalman filter is capable of correcting errors in model predictions associated with uncertainties in electron lifetimes, boundary conditions, and convection electric fields. We demonstrate that reanalysis retains features which cannot be fully reproduced by the convection model such as storm-time earthward propagation of the electrons down to 2.5 R-E. The Kalman filter can adjust model predictions to satellite measurements even in regions where data are not available. We show that the Kalman filter can adjust model predictions in accordance with observations for mu = 0.1, 2.3, and 9.9 MeV/G and constant K = 0.3 G(1/2) R-E electrons. The results of this study demonstrate that data assimilation can improve performance of ring current models, better quantify model uncertainties, and help deeper understand the physics of the ring current particles.
Cognitive representations and beliefs are what comprise an individual’s self-concept. A positive self-concept is related to and influences academic achievement, and the relationship between a domain-specific self-concept and achievement in the same domain is positive and strong. However, insufficient attention has been paid to these issues among multilingual children. More importantly, since instruction strongly contributes to the development of metacognition and executive functions (EFs), and since the bilingual advantage hypothesis holds that the constant management of multiple languages entails benefits for EF, we bring together these important issues in the present study. We examine the relationship between domain-specific self-concepts and standardized assessment of reading and spelling competences against the background of potential differences in self-concept between monolingual and multilingual German children. While between-group comparisons revealed no significant differences for self-concept nor reading competency, monolinguals outperformed multilinguals in spelling. Correlations between domain-specific self-concepts and academic achievement in reading comprehension, reading fluency, and spelling were positive and significant for both groups. Regardless of language background, children’s evaluations of their academic achievement (reading and spelling) were realistic. We argue, on a theoretical basis, that metacognition and EFs could facilitate a bilingual advantage and improve educational outcomes.
Thawing of subsea permafrost can impact offshore infrastructure, affect coastal erosion, and release permafrost organic matter. Thawing is usually modeled as the result of heat transfer, although salt diffusion may play an important role in marine settings. To better quantify nearshore subsea permafrost thawing, we applied the CryoGRID2 heat diffusion model and coupled it to a salt diffusion model. We simulated coastline retreat and subsea permafrost evolution as it develops through successive stages of a thawing sequence at the Bykovsky Peninsula, Siberia. Sensitivity analyses for seawater salinity were performed to compare the results for the Bykovsky Peninsula with those of typical Arctic seawater. For the Bykovsky Peninsula, the modeled ice-bearing permafrost table (IBPT) for ice-rich sand and an erosion rate of 0.25m/year was 16.7 m below the seabed 350m offshore. The model outputs were compared to the IBPT depth estimated from coastline retreat and electrical resistivity surveys perpendicular to and crossing the shoreline of the Bykovsky Peninsula. The interpreted geoelectric data suggest that the IBPT dipped to 15-20m below the seabed at 350m offshore. Both results suggest that cold saline water forms beneath grounded ice and floating sea ice in shallow water, causing cryotic benthic temperatures. The freezing point depression produced by salt diffusion can delay or prevent ice formation in the sediment and enhance the IBPT degradation rate. Therefore, salt diffusion may facilitate the release of greenhouse gasses to the atmosphere and considerably affect the design of offshore and coastal infrastructure in subsea permafrost areas.
An essential, respected, and critical aspect of the modern practice of science and scientific publishing is peer review. The process of peer review facilitates best practices in scientific conduct and communication, ensuring that manuscripts published are as accurate, valuable, and clearly communicated. The over 216 papers published in Tectonics in 2018 benefit from the time, effort, and expertise of our reviewers who have provided thoughtfully considered advice on each manuscript. This role is critical to advancing our understanding of the evolution of the continents and their margins, as these reviews lead to even clearer and higher-quality papers. In 2018, the over 443 papers submitted to Tectonics were the beneficiaries of more than 1,010 reviews provided by 668 members of the tectonics community and related disciplines. To everyone who has volunteered their time and intellect to peer reviewing, thank you for helping Tectonics and all other AGU Publications provide the best science possible.
During the last years Urban Green Infrastructure (UGI) has evolved as a research focus across Europe. UGI can be understood as a multifunctional network of different urban green spaces and elements contributing to urban benefits. Urban agriculture has gained increasing research interest in this context. While a strong focus has been made on functions and benefits of small scale activities, the question is still open, whether these findings can be up-scaled and transferred to the farmland scale. Furthermore, multifunctionality of urban and peri-urban agriculture is rarely being considered in the landscape context. This research aims to address these gaps and harnesses the question if agricultural landscapes – which in many European metropolitan regions provide significant spatial potential – can contribute to UGI as multifunctional green spaces. This work considers multifunctionality qualitatively based on stakeholder opinion, using a participatory research approach. This study provides new insights in peri-urban farmland potentials for UGI development, resulting into a strategy framework. Furthermore, it reflects on the role of the stakeholder involvement for `multifunctionality planning´. It suggests that it helps to define meaningful bundles of intertwined functions that interact on different scales, helping to deal with non-linearity of multiple functions and to better manage them simultaneously.
We investigated inflow of a wastewater treatment plant and sediment of an urban lake for the presence of Clostridioides difficile by cultivation and PCR. Among seven colonies we sequenced the complete genomes of three: two non-toxigenic isolates from wastewater and one toxigenic isolate from the urban lake. For all obtained isolates, a close genomic relationship with human-derived isolates was observed. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Pluvial flood risk is mostly excluded in urban flood risk assessment. However, the risk of pluvial flooding is a growing challenge with a projected increase of extreme rainstorms compounding with an ongoing global urbanization. Considered as a flood type with minimal impacts when rainfall rates exceed the capacity of urban drainage systems, the aftermath of rainfall-triggered flooding during Hurricane Harvey and other events show the urgent need to assess the risk of pluvial flooding. Due to the local extent and small-scale variations, the quantification of pluvial flood risk requires risk assessments on high spatial resolutions. While flood hazard and exposure information is becoming increasingly accurate, the estimation of losses is still a poorly understood component of pluvial flood risk quantification. We use a new probabilistic multivariable modeling approach to estimate pluvial flood losses of individual buildings, explicitly accounting for the associated uncertainties. Except for the water depth as the common most important predictor, we identified the drivers for having loss or not and for the degree of loss to be different. Applying this approach to estimate and validate building structure losses during Hurricane Harvey using a property level data set, we find that the reliability and dispersion of predictive loss distributions vary widely depending on the model and aggregation level of property level loss estimates. Our results show that the use of multivariable zero-inflated beta models reduce the 90% prediction intervalsfor Hurricane Harvey building structure loss estimates on average by 78% (totalling U.S.$3.8 billion) compared to commonly used models.
In der vorliegenden Studie wurde die Prävalenz der Besiedlung mit multiresistenten Keimen an 155 Patienten aus der onkologischen und 157 Patienten aus der kardiologischen Rehabilitation mittels mikrobiologischen Screenings untersucht. Dabei zeigten 4,5% der onkologischen und 4,5% der kardiologischen Rehabilitationspatienten eine Besiedlung mit multiresistenten Erregern. Am häufigsten wurden 2-MRGN und ESBL (2,9%) nachgewiesen. Onkologische Rehapatienten zeigten doppelt so hohe Prävalenzraten für 3-MRGN im Vergleich zu kardiologischen (2,6 und 1,3%). Insgesamt zeigen onkologische und kardiologische Rehabilitationspatienten vergleichsweise niedrige Prävalenzraten für multiresistente Krankenhauskeime.