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The relationship between climate and forest productivity is an intensively studied subject in forest science. This Thesis is embedded within the general framework of future forest growth under climate change and its implications for the ongoing forest conversion. My objective is to investigate the future forest productivity at different spatial scales (from a single specific forest stand to aggregated information across Germany) with focus on oak-pine forests in the federal state of Brandenburg. The overarching question is: how are the oak-pine forests affected by climate change described by a variety of climate scenarios. I answer this question by using a model based analysis of tree growth processes and responses to different climate scenarios with emphasis on drought events. In addition, a method is developed which considers climate change uncertainty of forest management planning.
As a first 'screening' of climate change impacts on forest productivity, I calculated the change in net primary production on the base of a large set of climate scenarios for different tree species and the total area of Germany. Temperature increases up to 3 K lead to positive effects on the net primary production of all selected tree species. But, in water-limited regions this positive net primary production trend is dependent on the length of drought periods which results in a larger uncertainty regarding future forest productivity. One of the regions with the highest uncertainty of net primary production development is the federal state of Brandenburg.
To enhance the understanding and ability of model based analysis of tree growth sensitivity to drought stress two water uptake approaches in pure pine and mixed oak-pine stands are contrasted. The first water uptake approach consists of an empirical function for root water uptake. The second approach is more mechanistic and calculates the differences of soil water potential along a soil-plant-atmosphere continuum. I assumed the total root resistance to vary at low, medium and high total root resistance levels. For validation purposes three data sets on different tree growth relevant time scales are used. Results show that, except the mechanistic water uptake approach with high total root resistance, all transpiration outputs exceeded observed values. On the other hand high transpiration led to a better match of observed soil water content. The strongest correlation between simulated and observed annual tree ring width occurred with the mechanistic water uptake approach and high total root resistance. The findings highlight the importance of severe drought as a main reason for small diameter increment, best supported by the mechanistic water uptake approach with high root resistance. However, if all aspects of the data sets are considered no approach can be judged superior to the other. I conclude that the uncertainty of future productivity of water-limited forest ecosystems under changing environmental conditions is linked to simulated root water uptake.
Finally my study aimed at the impacts of climate change combined with management scenarios on an oak-pine forest to evaluate growth, biomass and the amount of harvested timber. The pine and the oak trees are 104 and 9 years old respectively. Three different management scenarios with different thinning intensities and different climate scenarios are used to simulate the performance of management strategies which explicitly account for the risks associated with achieving three predefined objectives (maximum carbon storage, maximum harvested timber, intermediate). I found out that in most cases there is no general management strategy which fits best to different objectives. The analysis of variance in the growth related model outputs showed an increase of climate uncertainty with increasing climate warming. Interestingly, the increase of climate-induced uncertainty is much higher from 2 to 3 K than from 0 to 2 K.
Over the last decades, the world’s population has been growing at a faster rate, resulting in increased urbanisation, especially in developing countries. More than half of the global population currently lives in urbanised areas with an increasing tendency. The growth of cities results in a significant loss of vegetation cover, soil compaction and sealing of the soil surface which in turn results in high surface runoff during high-intensity storms and causes the problem of accelerated soil water erosion on streets and building grounds. Accelerated soil water erosion is a serious environmental problem in cities as it gives rise to the contamination of aquatic bodies, reduction of ground water recharge and increase in land degradation, and also results in damages to urban infrastructures, including drainage systems, houses and roads. Understanding the problem of water erosion in urban settings is essential for the sustainable planning and management of cities prone to water erosion. However, in spite of the vast existence of scientific literature on water erosion in rural regions, a concrete understanding of the underlying dynamics of urban erosion still remains inadequate for the urban dryland environments.
This study aimed at assessing water erosion and the associated socio-environmental determinants in a typical dryland urban area and used the city of Windhoek, Namibia, as a case study. The study used a multidisciplinary approach to assess the problem of water erosion. This included an in depth literature review on current research approaches and challenges of urban erosion, a field survey method for the quantification of the spatial extent of urban erosion in the dryland city of Windhoek, and face to face interviews by using semi-structured questionnaires to analyse the perceptions of stakeholders on urban erosion.
The review revealed that around 64% of the literatures reviewed were conducted in the developed world, and very few researches were carried out in regions with extreme climate, including dryland regions. Furthermore, the applied methods for erosion quantification and monitoring are not inclusive of urban typical features and they are not specific for urban areas. The reviewed literature also lacked aspects aimed at addressing the issues of climate change and policies regarding erosion in cities. In a field study, the spatial extent and severity of an urban dryland city, Windhoek, was quantified and the results show that nearly 56% of the city is affected by water erosion showing signs of accelerated erosion in the form of rills and gullies, which occurred mainly in the underdeveloped, informal and semi-formal areas of the city. Factors influencing the extent of erosion in Windhoek included vegetation cover and type, socio-urban factors and to a lesser extent slope estimates. A comparison of an interpolated field survey erosion map with a conventional erosion assessment tool (the Universal Soil Loss Equation) depicted a large deviation in spatial patterns, which underlines the inappropriateness of traditional non-urban erosion tools to urban settings and emphasises the need to develop new erosion assessment and management methods for urban environments. It was concluded that measures for controlling water erosion in the city need to be site-specific as the extent of erosion varied largely across the city.
The study also analysed the perceptions and understanding of stakeholders of urban water erosion in Windhoek, by interviewing 41 stakeholders using semi-structured questionnaires. The analysis addressed their understanding of water erosion dynamics, their perceptions with regards to the causes and the seriousness of erosion damages, and their attitudes towards the responsibilities for urban erosion. The results indicated that there is less awareness of the process as a phenomenon, instead there is more awareness of erosion damages and the factors contributing to the damages. About 69% of the stakeholders considered erosion damages to be ranging from moderate to very serious. However, there were notable disparities between the private householders and public authority groups. The study further found that the stakeholders have no clear understanding of their responsibilities towards the management of the control measures and payment for the damages. The private householders and local authority sectors pointed fingers at each other for the responsibilities for erosion damage payments and for putting up prevention measures. The reluctance to take responsibility could create a predicament for areas affected, specifically in the informal settlements where land management is not carried out by the local authority and land is not owned by the occupants.
The study concluded that in order to combat urban erosion, it is crucial to understand diverse dynamics aggravating the process of urbanisation from different scales. Accordingly, the study suggests that there is an urgent need for the development of urban-specific approaches that aim at: (a) incorporating the diverse socio-economic-environmental aspects influencing erosion, (b) scientifically improving natural cycles that influence water storages and nutrients for plants in urbanised dryland areas in order to increase the amount of vegetation cover, (c) making use of high resolution satellite images to improve the adopted methods for assessing urban erosion, (d) developing water erosion policies, and (e) continuously monitoring the impact of erosion and the influencing processes from local, national and international levels.
Die Empirie des beginnenden 21. Jahrhunderts weist mehr autoritäre Regime aus als am Ende des 20. Jahrhunderts angenommen. Die gegenwärtige Autoritarismusforschung versucht die Fortdauer dieses Regimetyps in Hinblick auf die politischen Institutionen zu erklären – dabei bleiben politische Akteure, die nicht zum Herrschaftszentrum gehören, außen vor.
Das vorliegende Projekt untersucht die Rolle und Funktion politischer Opposition in autoritären Regimen. Es wird davon ausgegangen, dass sich an der Opposition eine signifikante Charakteristik autoritärer Regime manifestiert. Das akteurszentrierte Projekt ist der qualitativ orientierten Politikwissenschaft zuzurechnen und verknüpft das Autoritarismuskonzept von Juan Linz mit klassischen Ansätzen der Oppositionsforschung und macht diese Theorien für die gegenwärtige Autoritarismusforschung nutzbar.
Die eigens entwickelte elitenorientierte Oppositionstypologie wird am Beispiel Kenias im Zeitraum 1990-2005 angewendet. Die Oppositionsgruppen werden im Institutionengefüge autoritärer Regime verortet und ihr politisches Agieren in den Dimensionen Handlungsstatus, Handlungsüberzeugung und Handlungsstrategie analysiert. Unter Beachtung der historisch gewachsenen regionalen und kulturellen Spezifika wird angenommen, dass generelle, Regionen übergreifende Aussagen zur Opposition in autoritären Regimen getroffen werden können: Kein Oppositionstyp kann allein einen Herrschaftswechsel bewirken. Der Wechsel bzw. die Fortdauer der Herrschaft hängt von der Dominanz bestimmter Oppositionstypen im Oppositionsgeflecht sowie der gleichzeitigen Schwäche anderer Oppositionstypen ab.
Durch die konzeptionelle Beschäftigung mit Opposition sowie deren empirische Erschließung soll ein substantieller Beitrag für die notwendige Debatte um autoritäre Regime im 21. Jahrhundert geleistet werden.
The author examines the cultural identity development of Oromo-Americans in Minnesota, an ethnic group originally located within the national borders of Ethiopia. Earlier studies on language and cultural identity have shown that the degree of ethnic orientation of minorities commonly decreases from generation to generation. Yet oppression and a visible minority status were identified as factors delaying the process of de-ethnicization. Given that Oromos fled persecution in Ethiopia and are confronted with the ramifications of a visible minority status in the U.S., it can be expected that they have retained strong ties to their ethnic culture. This study, however, came to a more complex and theory-building result.
The main objective of this dissertation is to analyse prerequisites, expectations, apprehensions, and attitudes of students studying computer science, who are willing to gain a bachelor degree. The research will also investigate in the students’ learning style according to the Felder-Silverman model. These investigations fall in the attempt to make an impact on reducing the “dropout”/shrinkage rate among students, and to suggest a better learning environment.
The first investigation starts with a survey that has been made at the computer science department at the University of Baghdad to investigate the attitudes of computer science students in an environment dominated by women, showing the differences in attitudes between male and female students in different study years. Students are accepted to university studies via a centrally controlled admission procedure depending mainly on their final score at school. This leads to a high percentage of students studying subjects they do not want. Our analysis shows that 75% of the female students do not regret studying computer science although it was not their first choice. And according to statistics over previous years, women manage to succeed in their study and often graduate on top of their class. We finish with a comparison of attitudes between the freshman students of two different cultures and two different university enrolment procedures (University of Baghdad, in Iraq, and the University of Potsdam, in Germany) both with opposite gender majority.
The second step of investigation took place at the department of computer science at the University of Potsdam in Germany and analyzes the learning styles of students studying the three major fields of study offered by the department (computer science, business informatics, and computer science teaching). Investigating the differences in learning styles between the students of those study fields who usually take some joint courses is important to be aware of which changes are necessary to be adopted in the teaching methods to address those different students. It was a two stage study using two questionnaires; the main one is based on the Index of Learning Styles Questionnaire of B. A. Solomon and R. M. Felder, and the second questionnaire was an investigation on the students’ attitudes towards the findings of their personal first questionnaire. Our analysis shows differences in the preferences of learning style between male and female students of the different study fields, as well as differences between students with the different specialties (computer science, business informatics, and computer science teaching).
The third investigation looks closely into the difficulties, issues, apprehensions and expectations of freshman students studying computer science. The study took place at the computer science department at the University of Potsdam with a volunteer sample of students. The goal is to determine and discuss the difficulties and issues that they are facing in their study that may lead them to think in dropping-out, changing the study field, or changing the university. The research continued with the same sample of students (with business informatics students being the majority) through more than three semesters. Difficulties and issues during the study were documented, as well as students’ attitudes, apprehensions, and expectations. Some of the professors and lecturers opinions and solutions to some students’ problems were also documented. Many participants had apprehensions and difficulties, especially towards informatics subjects. Some business informatics participants began to think of changing the university, in particular when they reached their third semester, others thought about changing their field of study. Till the end of this research, most of the participants continued in their studies (the study they have started with or the new study they have changed to) without leaving the higher education system.
Savannas cover a broad geographical range across continents and are a biome best described by a mix of herbaceous and woody plants. The former create a more or less continuous layer while the latter should be sparse enough to leave an open canopy. What has long intrigued ecologists is how these two competing plant life forms of vegetation coexist.
Initially attributed to resource competition, coexistence was considered the stable outcome of a root niche differentiation between trees and grasses. The importance of environmental factors became evident later, when data from moister environments demonstrated that tree cover was often lower than what the rainfall conditions would allow for. Our current understanding relies on the interaction of competition and disturbances in space and time. Hence, the influence of grazing and fire and the corresponding feedbacks they generate have been keenly investigated. Grazing removes grass cover, initiating a self-reinforcing process propagating tree cover expansion. This is known as the encroachment phenomenon. Fire, on the other hand, imposes a bottleneck on the tree population by halting the recruitment of young trees into adulthood. Since grasses fuel fires, a feedback linking grazing, grass cover, fire, and tree cover is created. In African savannas, which are the focus of this dissertation, these feedbacks play a major role in the dynamics.
The importance of these feedbacks came into sharp focus when the notion of alternative states began to be applied to savannas. Alternative states in ecology arise when different states of an ecosystem can occur under the same conditions. According to this an open savanna and a tree-dominated savanna can be classified as alternative states, since they can both occur under the same climatic conditions. The aforementioned feedbacks are critical in the creation of alternative states. The grass-fire feedback can preserve an open canopy as long as fire intensity and frequency remain above a certain threshold. Conversely, crossing a grazing threshold can force an open savanna to shift to a tree-dominated state. Critically, transitions between such alternative states can produce hysteresis, where a return to pre-transition conditions will not suffice to restore the ecosystem to its original state.
In the chapters that follow, I will cover aspects relating to the coexistence mechanisms and the role of feedbacks in tree-grass interactions. Coming back to the coexistence question, due to the overwhelming focus on competition and disturbance another important ecological process was neglected: facilitation. Therefore, in the first study within this dissertation I examine how facilitation can expand the tree-grass coexistence range into drier conditions. For the second study I focus on another aspect of savanna dynamics which remains underrepresented in the literature: the impacts of inter-annual rainfall variability upon savanna trees and the resilience of the savanna state. In the third and final study within this dissertation I approach the well-researched encroachment phenomenon from a new perspective: I search for an early warning indicator of the process to be used as a prevention tool for savanna conservation. In order to perform all this work I developed a mathematical ecohydrological model of Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) with three variables: soil moisture content, grass cover and tree cover.
Facilitation: Results showed that the removal of grass cover through grazing was detrimental to trees under arid conditions, contrary to expectation based on resource competition. The reason was that grasses preserved moisture in the soil through infiltration and shading, thus ameliorating the harsh conditions for trees in accordance with the Stress Gradient Hypothesis. The exclusion of grasses from the model further demonstrated this: tree cover was lower in the absence of grasses, indicating that the benefits of grass facilitation outweighed the costs of grass competition for trees. Thus, facilitation expanded the climatic range where savannas persisted into drier conditions.
Rainfall variability: By adjusting the model to current rainfall patterns in East Africa, I simulated conditions of increasing inter-annual rainfall variability for two distinct mean rainfall scenarios: semi-arid and mesic. Alternative states of tree-less grassland and tree-dominated savanna emerged in both cases. Increasing variability reduced semi-arid savanna tree cover to the point that at high variability the savanna state was eliminated, because variability intensified resource competition and strengthened the fire disturbance during high rainfall years. Mesic savannas, on the other hand, became more resilient along the variability gradient: increasing rainfall variability created more opportunities for the rapid growth of trees to overcome the fire disturbance, boosting the chances of savannas persisting and thus increasing mesic savanna resilience.
Preventing encroachment: The breakdown in the grass-fire feedback caused by heavy grazing promoted the expansion of woody cover. This could be irreversible due to the presence of alternative states of encroached and open savanna, which I found along a simulated grazing gradient. When I simulated different short term heavy grazing treatments followed by a reduction to the original grazing conditions, certain cases converged to the encroached state. Utilising woody cover changes only during the heavy grazing treatment, I developed an early warning indicator which identified these cases with a high risk of such hysteresis and successfully distinguished them from those with a low risk. Furthermore, after validating the indicator on encroachment data, I demonstrated that it appeared early enough for encroachment to be prevented through realistic grazing-reduction treatments.
Though this dissertation is rooted in the theory of savanna dynamics, its results can have significant applications in savanna conservation. Facilitation has only recently become a topic of interest within savanna literature. Given the threat of increasing droughts and a general anticipation of drier conditions in parts of Africa, insights stemming from this research may provide clues for preserving arid savannas. The impacts of rainfall variability on savannas have not yet been thoroughly studied, either. Conflicting results appear as a result of the lack of a robust theoretical understanding of plant interactions under variable conditions. . My work and other recent studies argue that such conditions may increase the importance of fast resource acquisition creating a ‘temporal niche’. Woody encroachment has been extensively studied as phenomenon, though not from the perspective of its early identification and prevention. The development of an encroachment forecasting tool, as the one presented in this work, could protect both the savanna biome and societies dependent upon it for (economic) survival. All studies which follow are bound by the attempt to broaden the horizons of savanna-related research in order to deal with extreme conditions and phenomena; be it through the enhancement of the coexistence debate or the study of an imminent external threat or the development of a management-oriented tool for the conservation of savannas.
Extreme hydro-meteorological events, such as severe droughts or heavy rainstorms, constitute primary manifestations of climate variability and exert a critical impact on the natural environment and human society. This is particularly true for high-mountain areas, such as the eastern flank of the southern Central Andes of NW Argentina, a region impacted by deep convection processes that form the basis of extreme events, often resulting in floods, a variety of mass movements, and hillslope processes. This region is characterized by pronounced E-W gradients in topography, precipitation, and vegetation cover, spanning low to medium-elevation, humid and densely vegetated areas to high-elevation, arid and sparsely vegetated environments. This strong E-W gradient is mirrored by differences in the efficiency of surface processes, which mobilize and transport large amounts of sediment through the fluvial system, from the steep hillslopes to the intermontane basins and further to the foreland. In a highly sensitive high-mountain environment like this, even small changes in the spatiotemporal distribution, magnitude and rates of extreme events may strongly impact environmental conditions, anthropogenic activity, and the well-being of mountain communities and beyond. However, although the NW Argentine Andes comprise the catchments for the La Plata river that traverses one of the most populated and economically relevant areas of South America, there are only few detailed investigations of climate variability and extreme hydro-meteorological events.
In this thesis, I focus on deciphering the spatiotemporal variability of rainfall and river discharge, with particular emphasis on extreme hydro-meteorological events in the subtropical southern Central Andes of NW Argentina during the past seven decades. I employ various methods to assess and quantify statistically significant trend patterns of rainfall and river discharge, integrating high-quality daily time series from gauging stations (40 rainfall and 8 river discharge stations) with gridded datasets (CPC-uni and TRMM 3B42 V7), for the period between 1940 and 2015. Evidence for a general intensification of the hydrological cycle at intermediate elevations (~ 0.5 – 3 km asl) at the eastern flank of the southern Central Andes is found both from rainfall and river-discharge time-series analysis during the period from 1940 to 2015. This intensification is associated with the increase of the annual total amount of rainfall and the mean annual discharge. However, most pronounced trends are found at high percentiles, i.e. extreme hydro-meteorological events, particularly during the wet season from December to February.An important outcome of my studies is the recognition of a rapid increase in the amount of river discharge during the period between 1971 and 1977, most likely linked to the 1976-77 global climate shift, which is associated with the North Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature variability. Interestingly, after this rapid increase, both rainfall and river discharge decreased at low and intermediate elevations along the eastern flank of the Andes. In contrast, during the same time interval, at high elevations, extensive areas on the arid Puna de Atacama plateau have recorded increasing annual rainfall totals. This has been associated with more intense extreme hydro-meteorological events from 1979 to 2014. This part of the study reveals that low-, intermediate, and high-elevation sectors in the Andes of NW Argentina respond differently to changing climate conditions.
Possible forcing mechanisms of the pronounced hydro-meteorological variability observed in the study area are also investigated. For the period between 1940 and 2015, I analyzed modes of oscillation of river discharge from small to medium drainage basins (102 to 104 km2), located on the eastern flank of the orogen. First, I decomposed the relevant monthly time series using the Hilbert-Huang Transform, which is particularly appropriate for non-stationary time series that result from non-linear natural processes. I observed that in the study region discharge variability can be described by five quasi-periodic oscillatory modes on timescales varying from 1 to ~20 years. Secondly, I tested the link between river-discharge variations and large-scale climate modes of variability, using different climate indices, such as the BEST ENSO (Bivariate El Niño-Southern Oscillation Time-series) index. This analysis reveals that, although most of the variance on the annual timescale is associated with the South American Monsoon System, a relatively large part of river-discharge variability is linked to Pacific Ocean variability (PDO phases) at multi-decadal timescales (~20 years). To a lesser degree, river discharge variability is also linked to the Tropical South Atlantic (TSA) sea surface temperature anomaly at multi-annual timescales (~2-5 years).
Taken together, these findings exemplify the high degree of sensitivity of high-mountain environments with respect to climatic variability and change. This is particularly true for the topographic transitions between the humid, low-moderate elevations and the semi-arid to arid highlands of the southern Central Andes. Even subtle changes in the hydro-meteorological regime of these areas of the mountain belt react with major impacts on erosional hillslope processes and generate mass movements that fundamentally impact the transport capacity of mountain streams. Despite more severe storms in these areas, the fluvial system is characterized by pronounced variability of the stream power on different timescales, leading to cycles of sediment aggradation, the loss of agriculturally used land and severe impacts on infrastructure.