910 Geografie, Reisen
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Mountain and upland regions provide a wide range of ecosystem services to residents and visitors. While ecosystem research in mountain regions is on the rise, the linkages between sociocultural benefits and ecological systems remain little explored. Mountainous regions close to urban areas provide numerous benefits to a large number of individuals, suggesting a high social value, particularly for cultural ecosystem services. We explored and compared visitors' valuation of ecosystem services in the Pentland Hills, an upland range close to the city of Edinburgh, Scotland, and urban green spaces within Edinburgh. Based on 715 responses to user surveys in both study areas, we identified intense use and high social value for both areas. Several ecosystem services were perceived as equally important in both areas, including many cultural ecosystem services. Significant differences were revealed in the value of physically using nature, which Pentland Hills users rated more highly than those in the urban green spaces, and of mitigation of pollutants and carbon sequestration, for which the urban green spaces were valued more highly. Major differences were further identified for preferences in future land management, with nature-oriented management preferred by about 57% of the interviewees in the Pentland Hills, compared to 31% in the urban parks. The study highlights the substantial value of upland areas in close vicinity to a city for physically using and experiencing nature, with a strong acceptance of nature conservation.
Ecosystem services have a significant impact on human wellbeing. While ecosystem services are frequently represented by monetary values, social values and underlying social benefits remain under explored. The purpose of this study is to assess whether and how social benefits have been explicitly addressed within socio-economic and socio-cultural ecosystem services research, ultimately allowing a better understanding between ecosystem services and human well-being. In this paper, we reviewed 115 international primary valuation studies and tested four hypotheses associated to the identification of social benefits of ecosystem services using logistic regressions. Tested hypotheses were that (1) social benefits are mostly derived in studies that assess cultural ecosystem services as opposed to other ecosystem service types, (2) there is a pattern of social benefits and certain cultural ecosystem services assessed simultaneously, (3) monetary valuation techniques go beyond expressing monetary values and convey social benefits, and (4) directly addressing stakeholder's views the consideration of social benefits in ecosystem service assessments. Our analysis revealed that (1) a variety of social benefits are valued in studies that assess either of the four ecosystem service types, (2) certain social benefits are likely to co-occur in combination with certain cultural ecosystem services, (3) of the studies that employed monetary valuation techniques, simulated market approaches overlapped most frequently with the assessment of social benefits and (4) studies that directly incorporate stakeholder's views were more likely to also assess social benefits. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Preface
(2016)
The concept of similitude is commonly employed in the fields of fluid dynamics and engineering but rarely used in cryospheric research. Here we apply this method to the problem of ice flow to examine the dynamic similitude of isothermal ice sheets in shallow-shelf approximation against the scaling of their geometry and physical parameters. Carrying out a dimensional analysis of the stress balance we obtain dimensionless numbers that characterize the flow. Requiring that these numbers remain the same under scaling we obtain conditions that relate the geometric scaling factors, the parameters for the ice softness, surface mass balance and basal friction as well as the ice-sheet intrinsic response time to each other. We demonstrate that these scaling laws are the same for both the (two-dimensional) flow-line case and the three-dimensional case. The theoretically predicted ice-sheet scaling behavior agrees with results from numerical simulations that we conduct in flow-line and three-dimensional conceptual setups. We further investigate analytically the implications of geometric scaling of ice sheets for their response time. With this study we provide a framework which, under several assumptions, allows for a fundamental comparison of the ice-dynamic behavior across different scales. It proves to be useful in the design of conceptual numerical model setups and could also be helpful for designing laboratory glacier experiments. The concept might also be applied to real-world systems, e.g., to examine the response times of glaciers, ice streams or ice sheets to climatic perturbations.
In contrast to recent advances in projecting sea levels, estimations about the economic impact of sea level rise are vague. Nonetheless, they are of great importance for policy making with regard to adaptation and greenhouse-gas mitigation. Since the damage is mainly caused by extreme events, we propose a stochastic framework to estimate the monetary losses from coastal floods in a confined region. For this purpose, we follow a Peak-over-Threshold approach employing a Poisson point process and the Generalised Pareto Distribution. By considering the effect of sea level rise as well as potential adaptation scenarios on the involved parameters, we are able to study the development of the annual damage. An application to the city of Copenhagen shows that a doubling of losses can be expected from a mean sea level increase of only 11 cm. In general, we find that for varying parameters the expected losses can be well approximated by one of three analytical expressions depending on the extreme value parameters. These findings reveal the complex interplay of the involved parameters and allow conclusions of fundamental relevance. For instance, we show that the damage typically increases faster than the sea level rise itself. This in turn can be of great importance for the assessment of sea level rise impacts on the global scale. Our results are accompanied by an assessment of uncertainty, which reflects the stochastic nature of extreme events. While the absolute value of uncertainty about the flood damage increases with rising mean sea levels, we find that it decreases in relation to the expected damage.
Experience has shown that river floods can significantly hamper the reliability of railway networks and cause extensive structural damage and disruption. As a result, the national railway operator in Austria had to cope with financial losses of more than EUR 100 million due to flooding in recent years. Comprehensive information on potential flood risk hot spots as well as on expected flood damage in Austria is therefore needed for strategic flood risk management. In view of this, the flood damage model RAIL (RAilway Infrastructure Loss) was applied to estimate (1) the expected structural flood damage and (2) the resulting repair costs of railway infrastructure due to a 30-, 100- and 300-year flood in the Austrian Mur River catchment. The results were then used to calculate the expected annual damage of the railway subnetwork and subsequently analysed in terms of their sensitivity to key model assumptions. Additionally, the impact of risk aversion on the estimates was investigated, and the overall results were briefly discussed against the background of climate change and possibly resulting changes in flood risk. The findings indicate that the RAIL model is capable of supporting decision-making in risk management by providing comprehensive risk information on the catchment level. It is furthermore demonstrated that an increased risk aversion of the railway operator has a marked influence on flood damage estimates for the study area and, hence, should be considered with regard to the development of risk management strategies.
Most climate change impacts manifest in the form of natural hazards. Damage assessment typically relies on damage functions that translate the magnitude of extreme events to a quantifiable damage. In practice, the availability of damage functions is limited due to a lack of data sources and a lack of understanding of damage processes. The study of the characteristics of damage functions for different hazards could strengthen the theoretical foundation of damage functions and support their development and validation. Accordingly, we investigate analogies of damage functions for coastal flooding and for wind storms and identify a unified approach. This approach has general applicability for granular portfolios and may also be applied, for example, to heat-related mortality. Moreover, the unification enables the transfer of methodology between hazards and a consistent treatment of uncertainty. This is demonstrated by a sensitivity analysis on the basis of two simple case studies (for coastal flood and storm damage). The analysis reveals the relevance of the various uncertainty sources at varying hazard magnitude and on both the microscale and the macroscale level. Main findings are the dominance of uncertainty from the hazard magnitude and the persistent behaviour of intrinsic uncertainties on both scale levels. Our results shed light on the general role of uncertainties and provide useful insight for the application of the unified approach.
In recent decades, the Greenland Ice Sheet has been losing mass and has thereby contributed to global sea-level rise. The rate of ice loss is highly relevant for coastal protection worldwide. The ice loss is likely to increase under future warming. Beyond a critical temperature threshold, a meltdown of the Greenland Ice Sheet is induced by the self-enforcing feedback between its lowering surface elevation and its increasing surface mass loss: the more ice that is lost, the lower the ice surface and the warmer the surface air temperature, which fosters further melting and ice loss. The computation of this rate so far relies on complex numerical models which are the appropriate tools for capturing the complexity of the problem. By contrast we aim here at gaining a conceptual understanding by deriving a purposefully simple equation for the self-enforcing feedback which is then used to estimate the melt time for different levels of warming using three observable characteristics of the ice sheet itself and its surroundings. The analysis is purely conceptual in nature. It is missing important processes like ice dynamics for it to be useful for applications to sea-level rise on centennial timescales, but if the volume loss is dominated by the feedback, the resulting logarithmic equation unifies existing numerical simulations and shows that the melt time depends strongly on the level of warming with a critical slow-down near the threshold: the median time to lose 10% of the present-day ice volume varies between about 3500 years for a temperature level of 0.5 degrees C above the threshold and 500 years for 5 degrees C. Unless future observations show a significantly higher melting sensitivity than currently observed, a complete meltdown is unlikely within the next 2000 years without significant ice-dynamical contributions.
Brief communication
(2016)
In March 2015, a new international blueprint for disaster risk reduction (DRR) was adopted in Sendai, Japan, at the end of the Third UN World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction (WCDRR, 14-18 March 2015). We review and discuss the agreed commitments and targets, as well as the negotiation leading the Sendai Framework for DRR (SF-DRR) and discuss briefly its implication for the later UN-led negotiations on sustainable development goals and climate change.
Seit Mitte der 2000er Jahre richtet sich angesichts der starken Schülerzahlenrückgänge die wissenschaftliche und bildungspolitische Aufmerksamkeit wieder stärker auf Fragen der Gestaltung beruflicher Bildung in ländlich-peripheren Räumen. Einerseits knüpft sich an die demografische Entwicklung die Erwartung einer Entspannung der lange Zeit sehr prekären Ausbildungsplatzsituation in diesen Räumen. Andererseits ist offen, inwiefern mit den Anpassungsprozessen die Ausbildung neuer räumlichen Disparitäten verbunden ist, etwa durch die Schließung von Berufsschulen. Die Arbeit setzt sich mit der aktuellen Situation und dem Umgang mit Berufsschulen unter den folgenden Fragestellungen auseinander: Wie kann in Regionen mit dünner Besiedlung auf der einen und einer schwierigen regionalökonomischen Situation auf der anderen Seite diese komplexe Infrastruktur betrieben werden? Welche Steuerungsinstrumente kommen in dem anstehenden Rückbauprozess zum Tragen und welche Rolle spielen demographische Entwicklungen, strukturelle Faktoren und Akteurshandeln? Ein besonderer Fokus liegt auf der theoretischen und empirischen Verknüpfung von raumspezifischen Fragestellungen mit der Komplexität von Berufsschulen als ausdifferenzierte Institutionen zwischen Schulsystem und Wirtschaft.
Untersucht wurde die Entwicklung des brandenburgischen Berufsschulnetzes ab den 1990er Jahren mit einer vertieften Fallstudie im Landkreis Uckermark. Entgegen der Annahme eines starken Einbruchs der Infrastrukturversorgung in Folge des Schülerzahlenrückganges wird gezeigt, dass sich die brandenburgische Berufsschullandschaft seit den 2000er Jahren durch eine relative Stabilität auszeichnet. Allerdings erfolgte eine berufsspezifische Ausdünnung des Angebotes. Im Jahr 2013 fanden nur 41% aller Auszubilden in ihrem jeweiligen Ausbildungsberuf ein relativ flächendeckendes Berufsschulnetz vor. Als Faktoren für gelingende Steuerungsprozesse (in ländlich-peripheren Räumen) zeigten sich das Subsidaritätsprinzip, ein gemeinsam geteiltes Professionsverständnis sowie die Orientierung auf einen gewissen räumlichen Ausgleich. Erfolgreiche Interventionen gegen Konzentration basierten maßgeblich auf einem ausgeprägten, fachlichen „Selbstbewusstsein“ und Anspruch von Bildungsorganisationen. Demgegenüber konnten unspezifische Bezugnahmen auf Peripherisierungen keine handlungswirksamen Strategien entfalten. Teilentwicklungen im Schulberufssystem sind durch die Expansion privater Berufsschulen in einen ausgeprägten institutionellen Wandel eingebettet. Die Infrastrukturentwicklung führte in diesem Segment zur Ausbildung eines spezifischen Marktes, der teilweise nur begrenzt einem klassischen Angebots-Nachfrage-Modell folgt und potentiell zu Überausbildung führt.
Die vorgefundenen Steuerungsformen sind angesichts von Ressourcenmangel, der sektoralen Zersplitterung sowie des Mangels an Institutionen für die Ausbildung von Regionen als Handlungsräume in der Berufsausbildung ambivalent. Der demografische Diskurs führte (bisher) nicht zur Ausbildung von Steuerungsformen, welche die in der Infrastrukturgestaltung dominierenden, sektoralen Zuständigkeiten „überwinden“. Daher fungiert der Diskurs teilweise nur begrenzt als eine neue Orientierung für die Ausbildung von „peripheriespezifischen“ Infrastrukturstrategien und alternativen Steuerungsmodellen. Er kann dann neue, über klassische Anpassungsprozesse hinausgehende, Optionen generieren, wenn er sich stärker auf die Bedarfe der Akteure und Adressaten von Berufsbildung im ländlichen Raum bezieht und enger mit den Fachdiskursen verbindet.