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Flood loss modeling is an important component for risk analyses and decision support in flood risk management. Commonly, flood loss models describe complex damaging processes by simple, deterministic approaches like depth-damage functions and are associated with large uncertainty. To improve flood loss estimation and to provide quantitative information about the uncertainty associated with loss modeling, a probabilistic, multivariable Bagging decision Tree Flood Loss Estimation MOdel (BT-FLEMO) for residential buildings was developed. The application of BT-FLEMO provides a probability distribution of estimated losses to residential buildings per municipality. BT-FLEMO was applied and validated at the mesoscale in 19 municipalities that were affected during the 2002 flood by the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany. Validation was undertaken on the one hand via a comparison with six deterministic loss models, including both depth-damage functions and multivariable models. On the other hand, the results were compared with official loss data. BT-FLEMO outperforms deterministic, univariable, and multivariable models with regard to model accuracy, although the prediction uncertainty remains high. An important advantage of BT-FLEMO is the quantification of prediction uncertainty. The probability distribution of loss estimates by BT-FLEMO well represents the variation range of loss estimates of the other models in the case study.
We have assembled CO2 emission figures from collections of urban GHG emission estimates published in peer-reviewed journals or reports from research institutes and non-governmental organizations. Analyzing the scaling with population size, we find that the exponent is development dependent with a transition from super- to sub-linear scaling. From the climate change mitigation point of view, the results suggest that urbanization is desirable in developed countries. Further, we compare this analysis with a second scaling relation, namely the fundamental allometry between city population and area, and propose that density might be a decisive quantity too. Last, we derive the theoretical country-wide urban emissions by integration and obtain a dependence on the size of the largest city.
Am Abend des 29. Mai 2016 wurde der Ort Braunsbach im Landkreis Schwäbisch-Hall (Baden-Württemberg) von einer Sturzflut getroffen, bei der mehrere Häuser stark beschädigt oder zerstört wurden. Die Sturzflut war eine der Unwetterfolgen, die im Frühsommer 2016 vom Tiefdruckgebiet Elvira ausgelöst wurden. Der vorliegende Bericht ist der zweite Teil einer Doppelveröffentlichung, welche die Ergebnisse zur Untersuchung des Sturzflutereignisses im Rahmen des DFG-Graduiertenkollegs “Naturgefahren und Risiken in einer sich verändernden Welt” (NatRiskChange, GRK 2043/1) der Universität Potsdam präsentiert. Während Teil 1 die meteorologischen und hydrologischen Ereignisse analysiert, fokussiert Teil 2 auf die geomorphologischen Prozesse und die verursachten Gebäudeschäden. Dazu wurden Ursprung und Ausmaß des während des Sturzflutereignisses mobilisierten und in den Ort getragenen Materials untersucht. Des Weiteren wurden zu 96 betroffenen Gebäuden Daten zum Schadensgrad sowie Prozess- und Gebäudecharakteristika aufgenommen und ausgewertet. Die Untersuchungen zeigen, dass bei der Betrachtung von Hochwassergefährdung die Berücksichtigung von Sturzfluten und ihrer speziellen Charakteristika, wie hoher Feststofftransport und sprunghaftes Verhalten insbesondere in bebautem Gelände, wesentlich ist, um effektive Schutzmaßnahmen ergreifen zu können.
Hydraulic-driven fractures play a key role in subsurface energy technologies across several scales. By injecting fluid at high hydraulic pressure into rock with intrinsic low permeability, in-situ stress field and fracture development pattern can be characterised as well as rock permeability can be enhanced. Hydraulic fracturing is a commercial standard procedure for enhanced oil and gas production of rock reservoirs with low permeability in petroleum industry. However, in EGS utilization, a major geological concern is the unsolicited generation of earthquakes due to fault reactivation, referred to as induced seismicity, with a magnitude large enough to be felt on the surface or to damage facilities and buildings. Furthermore, reliable interpretation of hydraulic fracturing tests for stress measurement is a great challenge for the energy technologies. Therefore, in this cumulative doctoral thesis the following research questions are investigated. (1): How do hydraulic fractures grow in hard rock at various scales?; (2): Which parameters control hydraulic fracturing and hydro-mechanical coupling?; and (3): How can hydraulic fracturing in hard rock be modelled?
In the laboratory scale study, several laboratory hydraulic fracturing experiments are investigated numerically using Irazu2D that were performed on intact cubic Pocheon granite samples from South Korea applying different injection protocols. The goal of the laboratory experiments is to test the concept of cyclic soft stimulation which may enable sustainable permeability enhancement (Publication 1).
In the borehole scale study, hydraulic fracturing tests are reported that were performed in boreholes located in central Hungary to determine the in-situ stress for a geological site investigation. At depth of about 540 m, the recorded pressure versus time curves in mica schist with low dip angle foliation show atypical evolution. In order to provide explanation for this observation, a series of discrete element computations using Particle Flow Code 2D are performed (Publication 2).
In the reservoir scale study, the hydro-mechanical behaviour of fractured crystalline rock due to one of the five hydraulic stimulations at the Pohang Enhanced Geothermal site in South Korea is studied. Fluid pressure perturbation at faults of several hundred-meter lengths during hydraulic stimulation is simulated using FracMan (Publication 3).
The doctoral research shows that the resulting hydraulic fracturing geometry will depend “locally”, i.e. at the length scale of representative elementary volume (REV) and below that (sub-REV), on the geometry and strength of natural fractures, and “globally”, i.e. at super-REV domain volume, on far-field stresses. Regarding hydro-mechanical coupling, it is suggested to define separate coupling relationship for intact rock mass and natural fractures. Furthermore, the relative importance of parameters affecting the magnitude of formation breakdown pressure, a parameter characterising hydro-mechanical coupling, is defined. It can be also concluded that there is a clear gap between the capacity of the simulation software and the complexity of the studied problems. Therefore, the computational time of the simulation of complex hydraulic fracture geometries must be reduced while maintaining high fidelity simulation results. This can be achieved either by extending the computational resources via parallelization techniques or using time scaling techniques. The ongoing development of used numerical models focuses on tackling these methodological challenges.
The cryosphere in mountain regions is rapidly declining, a trend that is expected to accelerate over the next several decades due to anthropogenic climate change. A cascade of effects will result, extending from mountains to lowlands with associated impacts on human livelihood, economy, and ecosystems. With rising air temperatures and increased radiative forcing, glaciers will become smaller and, in some cases, disappear, the area of frozen ground will diminish, the ratio of snow to rainfall will decrease, and the timing and magnitude of both maximum and minimum streamflow will change. These changes will affect erosion rates, sediment, and nutrient flux, and the biogeochemistry of rivers and proglacial lakes, all of which influence water quality, aquatic habitat, and biotic communities. Changes in the length of the growing season will allow low-elevation plants and animals to expand their ranges upward. Slope failures due to thawing alpine permafrost, and outburst floods from glacier-and moraine-dammed lakes will threaten downstream populations.Societies even well beyond the mountains depend on meltwater from glaciers and snow for drinking water supplies, irrigation, mining, hydropower, agriculture, and recreation. Here, we review and, where possible, quantify the impacts of anticipated climate change on the alpine cryosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere, and consider the implications for adaptation to a future of mountains without permanent snow and ice.
Lithium is an important component of some tourmalines, especially in chemically evolved granites and pegmatites. All attempts at synthesizing Li-rich tourmaline have so far been unsuccessful. Here we describe the first synthesis of rossmanitic tourmaline at 4 GPa and 700 degrees C in the system Li2OAl2O3SiO2B2O3H2O (LASBH) from seed-free solid starting materials consisting of a homogenous mixture of Li2O, gamma-Al2O3, quartz and H3BO3. The solid run products after 12-day run duration comprise rossmanitic tourmaline (68 wt%), dumortierite (28 wt%) and traces of spodumene (3 wt%) and coesite (1 wt%). Tourmaline forms idiomorphic, large prismatic crystals (30 X 100 mu m), which are inclusion free and chemically unzoned. The refined cell dimensions of the tourmaline are: a = 15.7396(9) angstrom, c = 7.0575(5) angstrom, V = 1514.1(2) angstrom 3. Conventionally, the Li+ ion is assumed to exclusively occupy the octahedral Y site in the tourmaline structure to a maximum of 2 Li per formula unit (pfu). However, the chemical composition of our synthetic tourmaline determined by electron microprobe and secondary ion mass spectroscopy results in the formula: (X)(square Li-0.67(11)(0.33(11)))(Y)(Al2.53(10)Li0.47(10))(Z)(Al-6)T(Si5.42(15)B0.58(15))O-18(B)(BO3)(3)(V+W)[(OH)(2.40(3))O-1.60(3)], wherein a significant amount of Li occupies the X site for charge balance requirements. Reliable assignment of the OH-stretching vibrations in a polarized single-crystal Raman spectrum such as a single-crystal XRD structure refinement, confirms the incorporation of Li at the X site [0.24(9) and 0.15(5) Li-X pfu, respectively]. The SREF data show that the LiO1 distances are shortened significantly in order to compensate for the smaller ionic radius of Li+ compared to Na+, K+ or Ca2+ at the X site, i.e., Li is closer to the Si6O18 ring and to a sevenfold coordination with oxygen.
Eastern Africa has been a prime target for scientific drilling because it is rich in key paleoanthropological sites as well as in paleolakes, containing valuable paleoclimatic information on evolutionary time scales. The Hominin Sites and Paleolakes Drilling Project (HSPDP) explores these paleolakes with the aim of reconstructing environmental conditions around critical episodes of hominin evolution. Identification of biological taxa based on their sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) traces can contribute to understand past ecological and climatological conditions of the living environment of our ancestors. However, sedaDNA recovery from tropical environments is challenging because high temperatures, UV irradiation, and desiccation result in highly degraded DNA. Consequently, most of the DNA fragments in tropical sediments are too short for PCR amplification. We analyzed sedaDNA in the upper 70 m of the composite sediment core of the HSPDP drill site at Chew Bahir for eukaryotic remnants. We first tested shotgun high throughput sequencing which leads to metagenomes dominated by bacterial DNA of the deep biosphere, while only a small fraction was derived from eukaryotic, and thus probably ancient, DNA. Subsequently, we performed cross-species hybridization capture of sedaDNA to enrich ancient DNA (aDNA) from eukaryotic remnants for paleoenvironmental analysis, using established barcoding genes (cox1 and rbcL for animals and plants, respectively) from 199 species that may have had relatives in the past biosphere at Chew Bahir. Metagenomes yielded after hybridization capture are richer in reads with similarity to cox1 and rbcL in comparison to metagenomes without prior hybridization capture. Taxonomic assignments of the reads from these hybridization capture metagenomes also yielded larger fractions of the eukaryotic domain. For reads assigned to cox1, inferred wet periods were associated with high inferred relative abundances of putative limnic organisms (gastropods, green algae), while inferred dry periods showed increased relative abundances for insects. These findings indicate that cross-species hybridization capture can be an effective approach to enhance the information content of sedaDNA in order to explore biosphere changes associated with past environmental conditions, enabling such analyses even under tropical conditions.
Eastern Africa has been a prime target for scientific drilling because it is rich in key paleoanthropological sites as well as in paleolakes, containing valuable paleoclimatic information on evolutionary time scales. The Hominin Sites and Paleolakes Drilling Project (HSPDP) explores these paleolakes with the aim of reconstructing environmental conditions around critical episodes of hominin evolution. Identification of biological taxa based on their sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) traces can contribute to understand past ecological and climatological conditions of the living environment of our ancestors. However, sedaDNA recovery from tropical environments is challenging because high temperatures, UV irradiation, and desiccation result in highly degraded DNA. Consequently, most of the DNA fragments in tropical sediments are too short for PCR amplification. We analyzed sedaDNA in the upper 70 m of the composite sediment core of the HSPDP drill site at Chew Bahir for eukaryotic remnants. We first tested shotgun high throughput sequencing which leads to metagenomes dominated by bacterial DNA of the deep biosphere, while only a small fraction was derived from eukaryotic, and thus probably ancient, DNA. Subsequently, we performed cross-species hybridization capture of sedaDNA to enrich ancient DNA (aDNA) from eukaryotic remnants for paleoenvironmental analysis, using established barcoding genes (cox1 and rbcL for animals and plants, respectively) from 199 species that may have had relatives in the past biosphere at Chew Bahir. Metagenomes yielded after hybridization capture are richer in reads with similarity to cox1 and rbcL in comparison to metagenomes without prior hybridization capture. Taxonomic assignments of the reads from these hybridization capture metagenomes also yielded larger fractions of the eukaryotic domain. For reads assigned to cox1, inferred wet periods were associated with high inferred relative abundances of putative limnic organisms (gastropods, green algae), while inferred dry periods showed increased relative abundances for insects. These findings indicate that cross-species hybridization capture can be an effective approach to enhance the information content of sedaDNA in order to explore biosphere changes associated with past environmental conditions, enabling such analyses even under tropical conditions.
In my doctoral thesis, I examine continuous gravity measurements for monitoring of the geothermal site at Þeistareykir in North Iceland. With the help of high-precision superconducting gravity meters (iGravs), I investigate underground mass changes that are caused by operation of the geothermal power plant (i.e. by extraction of hot water and reinjection of cold water). The overall goal of this research project is to make a statement about the sustainable use of the geothermal reservoir, from which also the Icelandic energy supplier and power plant operator Landsvirkjun should benefit.
As a first step, for investigating the performance and measurement stability of the gravity meters, in summer 2017, I performed comparative measurements at the gravimetric observatory J9 in Strasbourg. From the three-month gravity time series, I examined calibration, noise and drift behaviour of the iGravs in comparison to stable long-term time series of the observatory superconducting gravity meters. After preparatory work in Iceland (setup of gravity stations, additional measuring equipment and infrastructure, discussions with Landsvirkjun and meetings with the Icelandic partner institute ISOR), gravity monitoring at Þeistareykir was started in December 2017. With the help of the iGrav records of the initial 18 months after start of measurements, I carried out the same investigations (on calibration, noise and drift behaviour) as in J9 to understand how the transport of the superconducting gravity meters to Iceland may influence instrumental parameters.
In the further course of this work, I focus on modelling and reduction of local gravity contributions at Þeistareykir. These comprise additional mass changes due to rain, snowfall and vertical surface displacements that superimpose onto the geothermal signal of the gravity measurements. For this purpose, I used data sets from additional monitoring sensors that are installed at each gravity station and adapted scripts for hydro-gravitational modelling. The third part of my thesis targets geothermal signals in the gravity measurements.
Together with my PhD colleague Nolwenn Portier from France, I carried out additional gravity measurements with a Scintrex CG5 gravity meter at 26 measuring points within the geothermal field in the summers of 2017, 2018 and 2019. These annual time-lapse gravity measurements are intended to increase the spatial coverage of gravity data from the three continuous monitoring stations to the entire geothermal field. The combination of CG5 and iGrav observations, as well as annual reference measurements with an FG5 absolute gravity meter represent the hybrid gravimetric monitoring method for Þeistareykir. Comparison of the gravimetric data to local borehole measurements (of groundwater levels, geothermal extraction and injection rates) is used to relate the observed gravity changes to the actually extracted (and reinjected) geothermal fluids. An approach to explain the observed gravity signals by means of forward modelling of the geothermal production rate is presented at the end of the third (hybrid gravimetric) study. Further modelling with the help of the processed gravity data is planned by Landsvirkjun. In addition, the experience from time-lapse and continuous gravity monitoring will be used for future gravity measurements at the Krafla geothermal field 22 km south-east of Þeistareykir.