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To identify genetic variants associated with head circumference in infancy, we performed a meta-analysis of seven genome-wide association studies (GWAS) (N = 10,768 individuals of European ancestry enrolled in pregnancy and/or birth cohorts) and followed up three lead signals in six replication studies (combined N = 19,089). rs7980687 on chromosome 12q24 (P = 8.1 x 10(-9)) and rs1042725 on chromosome 12q15 (P = 2.8 x 10(-10)) were robustly associated with head circumference in infancy. Although these loci have previously been associated with adult height(1), their effects on infant head circumference were largely independent of height (P = 3.8 x 10(-7) for rs7980687 and P = 1.3 x 10(-7) for rs1042725 after adjustment for infant height). A third signal, rs11655470 on chromosome 17q21, showed suggestive evidence of association with head circumference (P = 3.9 x 10(-6)). SNPs correlated to the 17q21 signal have shown genome-wide association with adult intracranial volume(2), Parkinson's disease and other neurodegenerative diseases(3-5), indicating that a common genetic variant in this region might link early brain growth with neurological disease in later life.
The inner region of the Milky Way halo harbors a large amount of dark matter (DM). Given its proximity, it is one of the most promising targets to look for DM. We report on a search for the annihilations of DM particles using gamma-ray observations towards the inner 300 pc of the Milky Way, with the H.E.S.S. array of ground-based Cherenkov telescopes. The analysis is based on a 2D maximum likelihood method using Galactic Center (GC) data accumulated by H.E.S.S. over the last 10 years (2004-2014), and does not show any significant gamma-ray signal above background. Assuming Einasto and Navarro-Frenk-White DM density profiles at the GC, we derive upper limits on the annihilation cross section <sigma nu >. These constraints are the strongest obtained so far in the TeV DM mass range and improve upon previous limits by a factor 5. For the Einasto profile, the constraints reach <sigma nu > values of 6 x 10(-26) cm(3) s(-1) in the W+W- channel for a DM particle mass of 1.5 TeV, and 2 x 10(-26) cm(3) s(-1) in the tau(+)tau(-) channel for a 1 TeV mass. For the first time, ground-based gamma-ray observations have reached sufficient sensitivity to probe <sigma nu > values expected from the thermal relic density for TeV DM particles.
A catalog of genetic loci associated with kidney function from analyses of a million individuals
(2019)
Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is responsible for a public health burden with multi-systemic complications. Through transancestry meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and independent replication (n = 1,046,070), we identified 264 associated loci (166 new). Of these,147 were likely to be relevant for kidney function on the basis of associations with the alternative kidney function marker blood urea nitrogen (n = 416,178). Pathway and enrichment analyses, including mouse models with renal phenotypes, support the kidney as the main target organ. A genetic risk score for lower eGFR was associated with clinically diagnosed CKD in 452,264 independent individuals. Colocalization analyses of associations with eGFR among 783,978 European-ancestry individuals and gene expression across 46 human tissues, including tubulo-interstitial and glomerular kidney compartments, identified 17 genes differentially expressed in kidney. Fine-mapping highlighted missense driver variants in 11 genes and kidney-specific regulatory variants. These results provide a comprehensive priority list of molecular targets for translational research.
The progress of science is tied to the standardization of measurements, instruments, and data. This is especially true in the Big Data age, where analyzing large data volumes critically hinges on the data being standardized. Accordingly, the lack of community-sanctioned data standards in paleoclimatology has largely precluded the benefits of Big Data advances in the field. Building upon recent efforts to standardize the format and terminology of paleoclimate data, this article describes the Paleoclimate Community reporTing Standard (PaCTS), a crowdsourced reporting standard for such data. PaCTS captures which information should be included when reporting paleoclimate data, with the goal of maximizing the reuse value of paleoclimate data sets, particularly for synthesis work and comparison to climate model simulations. Initiated by the LinkedEarth project, the process to elicit a reporting standard involved an international workshop in 2016, various forms of digital community engagement over the next few years, and grassroots working groups. Participants in this process identified important properties across paleoclimate archives, in addition to the reporting of uncertainties and chronologies; they also identified archive-specific properties and distinguished reporting standards for new versus legacy data sets. This work shows that at least 135 respondents overwhelmingly support a drastic increase in the amount of metadata accompanying paleoclimate data sets. Since such goals are at odds with present practices, we discuss a transparent path toward implementing or revising these recommendations in the near future, using both bottom-up and top-down approaches.
Coccolithophores have influenced the global climate for over 200 million years(1). These marine phytoplankton can account for 20 per cent of total carbon fixation in some systems(2). They form blooms that can occupy hundreds of thousands of square kilometres and are distinguished by their elegantly sculpted calcium carbonate exoskeletons (coccoliths), rendering them visible from space(3). Although coccolithophores export carbon in the form of organic matter and calcite to the sea floor, they also release CO2 in the calcification process. Hence, they have a complex influence on the carbon cycle, driving either CO2 production or uptake, sequestration and export to the deep ocean(4). Here we report the first haptophyte reference genome, from the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi strain CCMP1516, and sequences from 13 additional isolates. Our analyses reveal a pan genome (core genes plus genes distributed variably between strains) probably supported by an atypical complement of repetitive sequence in the genome. Comparisons across strains demonstrate that E. huxleyi, which has long been considered a single species, harbours extensive genome variability reflected in different metabolic repertoires. Genome variability within this species complex seems to underpin its capacity both to thrive in habitats ranging from the equator to the subarctic and to form large-scale episodic blooms under a wide variety of environmental conditions.
Right on track?
(2019)
Satellite telemetry is an increasingly utilized technology in wildlife research, and current devices can track individual animal movements at unprecedented spatial and temporal resolutions. However, as we enter the golden age of satellite telemetry, we need an in-depth understanding of the main technological, species-specific and environmental factors that determine the success and failure of satellite tracking devices across species and habitats. Here, we assess the relative influence of such factors on the ability of satellite telemetry units to provide the expected amount and quality of data by analyzing data from over 3,000 devices deployed on 62 terrestrial species in 167 projects worldwide. We evaluate the success rate in obtaining GPS fixes as well as in transferring these fixes to the user and we evaluate failure rates. Average fix success and data transfer rates were high and were generally better predicted by species and unit characteristics, while environmental characteristics influenced the variability of performance. However, 48% of the unit deployments ended prematurely, half of them due to technical failure. Nonetheless, this study shows that the performance of satellite telemetry applications has shown improvements over time, and based on our findings, we provide further recommendations for both users and manufacturers.
During aging, intracranial volume remains unchanged and represents maximally attained brain size, while various interacting biological phenomena lead to brain volume loss. Consequently, intracranial volume and brain volume in late life reflect different genetic influences. Our genome-wide association study (GWAS) in 8,175 community-dwelling elderly persons did not reveal any associations at genome-wide significance (P < 5 x 10(-8)) for brain volume. In contrast, intracranial volume was significantly associated with two loci: rs4273712 (P = 3.4 x 10(-11)), a known height-associated locus on chromosome 6q22, and rs9915547 (P = 1.5 x 10(-12)), localized to the inversion on chromosome 17q21. We replicated the associations of these loci with intracranial volume in a separate sample of 1,752 elderly persons (P = 1.1 x 10(-3) for 6q22 and 1.2 x 10(-3) for 17q21). Furthermore, we also found suggestive associations of the 17q21 locus with head circumference in 10,768 children (mean age of 14.5 months). Our data identify two loci associated with head size, with the inversion at 17q21 also likely to be involved in attaining maximal brain size.
Rapid decline of glomerular filtration rate estimated from creatinine (eGFRcrea) is associated with severe clinical endpoints. In contrast to cross-sectionally assessed eGFRcrea, the genetic basis for rapid eGFRcrea decline is largely unknown. To help define this, we meta-analyzed 42 genome-wide association studies from the Chronic Kidney Diseases Genetics Consortium and United Kingdom Biobank to identify genetic loci for rapid eGFRcrea decline. Two definitions of eGFRcrea decline were used: 3 mL/min/1.73m(2)/year or more ("Rapid3"; encompassing 34,874 cases, 107,090 controls) and eGFRcrea decline 25% or more and eGFRcrea under 60 mL/min/1.73m(2) at follow-up among those with eGFRcrea 60 mL/min/1.73m(2) or more at baseline ("CKDi25"; encompassing 19,901 cases, 175,244 controls). Seven independent variants were identified across six loci for Rapid3 and/or CKDi25: consisting of five variants at four loci with genome-wide significance (near UMOD-PDILT (2), PRKAG2, WDR72, OR2S2) and two variants among 265 known eGFRcrea variants (near GATM, LARP4B). All these loci were novel for Rapid3 and/or CKDi25 and our bioinformatic follow-up prioritized variants and genes underneath these loci. The OR2S2 locus is novel for any eGFRcrea trait including interesting candidates. For the five genome-wide significant lead variants, we found supporting effects for annual change in blood urea nitrogen or cystatin-based eGFR, but not for GATM or (LARP4B). Individuals at high compared to those at low genetic risk (8-14 vs. 0-5 adverse alleles) had a 1.20-fold increased risk of acute kidney injury (95% confidence interval 1.08-1.33). Thus, our identified loci for rapid kidney function decline may help prioritize therapeutic targets and identify mechanisms and individuals at risk for sustained deterioration of kidney function.
Rapid decline of glomerular filtration rate estimated from creatinine (eGFRcrea) is associated with severe clinical endpoints. In contrast to cross-sectionally assessed eGFRcrea, the genetic basis for rapid eGFRcrea decline is largely unknown. To help define this, we meta-analyzed 42 genome-wide association studies from the Chronic Kidney Diseases Genetics Consortium and United Kingdom Biobank to identify genetic loci for rapid eGFRcrea decline. Two definitions of eGFRcrea decline were used: 3 mL/min/1.73m(2)/year or more ("Rapid3"; encompassing 34,874 cases, 107,090 controls) and eGFRcrea decline 25% or more and eGFRcrea under 60 mL/min/1.73m(2) at follow-up among those with eGFRcrea 60 mL/min/1.73m(2) or more at baseline ("CKDi25"; encompassing 19,901 cases, 175,244 controls). Seven independent variants were identified across six loci for Rapid3 and/or CKDi25: consisting of five variants at four loci with genome-wide significance (near UMOD-PDILT (2), PRKAG2, WDR72, OR2S2) and two variants among 265 known eGFRcrea variants (near GATM, LARP4B). All these loci were novel for Rapid3 and/or CKDi25 and our bioinformatic follow-up prioritized variants and genes underneath these loci. The OR2S2 locus is novel for any eGFRcrea trait including interesting candidates. For the five genome-wide significant lead variants, we found supporting effects for annual change in blood urea nitrogen or cystatin-based eGFR, but not for GATM or (LARP4B). Individuals at high compared to those at low genetic risk (8-14 vs. 0-5 adverse alleles) had a 1.20-fold increased risk of acute kidney injury (95% confidence interval 1.08-1.33). Thus, our identified loci for rapid kidney function decline may help prioritize therapeutic targets and identify mechanisms and individuals at risk for sustained deterioration of kidney function.
Mitochondriopathies often present clinically as multisystemic disorders of primarily high-energy consuming organs. Assembly, turnover, and surveillance of mitochondrial proteins are essential for mitochondrial function and a key task of AAA family members of metalloproteases. We identified a homozygous mutation in the nuclear encoded mitochondrial escape 1-like 1 gene YME1L1, member of the AAA protease family, as a cause of a novel mitochondriopathy in a consanguineous pedigree of Saudi Arabian descent. The homozygous missense mutation, located in a highly conserved region in the mitochondrial pre-sequence, inhibits cleavage of YME1L1 by the mitochondrial processing peptidase, which culminates in the rapid degradation of YME1L1 precursor protein. Impaired YME1L1 function causes a proliferation defect and mitochondrial network fragmentation due to abnormal processing of OPA1. Our results identify mutations in YME1L1 as a cause of a mitochondriopathy with optic nerve atrophy highlighting the importance of YME1L1 for mitochondrial functionality in humans.
Reduced expression of the Indy ("I am Not Dead, Yet") gene in lower organisms promotes longevity in a manner akin to caloric restriction. Deletion of the mammalian homolog of Indy (mIndy, Slc13a5) encoding for a plasma membrane-associated citrate transporter expressed highly in the liver, protects mice from high-fat diet-induced and aging-induced obesity and hepatic fat accumulation through a mechanism resembling caloric restriction. We studied a possible role of mIndy in human hepatic fat metabolism. In obese, insulin-resistant patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, hepatic mIndy expression was increased and mIndy expression was also independently associated with hepatic steatosis. In nonhuman primates, a 2-year high-fat, high-sucrose diet increased hepatic mIndy expression. Liver microarray analysis showed that high mIndy expression was associated with pathways involved in hepatic lipid metabolism and immunological processes. Interleukin-6 (IL-6) was identified as a regulator of mIndy by binding to its cognate receptor. Studies in human primary hepatocytes confirmed that IL-6 markedly induced mIndy transcription through the IL-6 receptor and activation of the transcription factor signal transducer and activator of transcription 3, and a putative start site of the human mIndy promoter was determined. Activation of the IL-6-signal transducer and activator of transcription 3 pathway stimulated mIndy expression, enhanced cytoplasmic citrate influx, and augmented hepatic lipogenesis in vivo. In contrast, deletion of mIndy completely prevented the stimulating effect of IL-6 on citrate uptake and reduced hepatic lipogenesis. These data show that mIndy is increased in liver of obese humans and nonhuman primates with NALFD. Moreover, our data identify mIndy as a target gene of IL-6 and determine novel functions of IL-6 through mINDY. Conclusion: Targeting human mINDY may have therapeutic potential in obese patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease. German Clinical Trials Register: DRKS00005450.
The great auk was once abundant and distributed across the North Atlantic. It is now extinct, having been heavily exploited for its eggs, meat, and feathers. We investigated the impact of human hunting on its demise by integrating genetic data, GPS-based ocean current data, and analyses of population viability. We sequenced complete mitochondrial genomes of 41 individuals from across the species' geographic range and reconstructed population structure and population dynamics throughout the Holocene. Taken together, our data do not provide any evidence that great auks were at risk of extinction prior to the onset of intensive human hunting in the early 16th century. In addition, our population viability analyses reveal that even if the great auk had not been under threat by environmental change, human hunting alone could have been sufficient to cause its extinction. Our results emphasise the vulnerability of even abundant and widespread species to intense and localised exploitation.
GrassPlot is a collaborative vegetation-plot database organised by the Eurasian Dry Grassland Group (EDGG) and listed in the Global Index of Vegetation-Plot Databases (GIVD ID EU-00-003). GrassPlot collects plot records (releves) from grasslands and other open habitats of the Palaearctic biogeographic realm. It focuses on precisely delimited plots of eight standard grain sizes (0.0001; 0.001;... 1,000 m(2)) and on nested-plot series with at least four different grain sizes. The usage of GrassPlot is regulated through Bylaws that intend to balance the interests of data contributors and data users. The current version (v. 1.00) contains data for approximately 170,000 plots of different sizes and 2,800 nested-plot series. The key components are richness data and metadata. However, most included datasets also encompass compositional data. About 14,000 plots have near-complete records of terricolous bryophytes and lichens in addition to vascular plants. At present, GrassPlot contains data from 36 countries throughout the Palaearctic, spread across elevational gradients and major grassland types. GrassPlot with its multi-scale and multi-taxon focus complements the larger international vegetationplot databases, such as the European Vegetation Archive (EVA) and the global database " sPlot". Its main aim is to facilitate studies on the scale-and taxon-dependency of biodiversity patterns and drivers along macroecological gradients. GrassPlot is a dynamic database and will expand through new data collection coordinated by the elected Governing Board. We invite researchers with suitable data to join GrassPlot. Researchers with project ideas addressable with GrassPlot data are welcome to submit proposals to the Governing Board.
Biological responses to climate change have been widely documented across taxa and regions, but it remains unclear whether species are maintaining a good match between phenotype and environment, i.e. whether observed trait changes are adaptive. Here we reviewed 10,090 abstracts and extracted data from 71 studies reported in 58 relevant publications, to assess quantitatively whether phenotypic trait changes associated with climate change are adaptive in animals. A meta-analysis focussing on birds, the taxon best represented in our dataset, suggests that global warming has not systematically affected morphological traits, but has advanced phenological traits. We demonstrate that these advances are adaptive for some species, but imperfect as evidenced by the observed consistent selection for earlier timing. Application of a theoretical model indicates that the evolutionary load imposed by incomplete adaptive responses to ongoing climate change may already be threatening the persistence of species.
initMIP-Antarctica
(2019)
Ice sheet numerical modeling is an important tool to estimate the dynamic contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to sea level rise over the coming centuries. The influence of initial conditions on ice sheet model simulations, however, is still unclear. To better understand this influence, an initial state intercomparison exercise (initMIP) has been developed to compare, evaluate, and improve initialization procedures and estimate their impact on century-scale simulations. initMlP is the first set of experiments of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6), which is the primary Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) activity focusing on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Following initMlP-Greenland, initMlP-Antarctica has been designed to explore uncertainties associated with model initialization and spin-up and to evaluate the impact of changes in external forcings. Starting from the state of the Antarctic ice sheet at the end of the initialization procedure, three forward experiments are each run for 100 years: a control run, a run with a surface mass balance anomaly, and a run with a basal melting anomaly beneath floating ice. This study presents the results of initMlP-Antarctica from 25 simulations performed by 16 international modeling groups. The submitted results use different initial conditions and initialization methods, as well as ice flow model parameters and reference external forcings. We find a good agreement among model responses to the surface mass balance anomaly but large variations in responses to the basal melting anomaly. These variations can be attributed to differences in the extent of ice shelves and their upstream tributaries, the numerical treatment of grounding line, and the initial ocean conditions applied, suggesting that ongoing efforts to better represent ice shelves in continental-scale models should continue.
ISMIP6 Antarctica
(2020)
Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015-2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between 7:8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between 6 :1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display limited mass gain in East Antarctica.
Moving in the Anthropocene
(2018)
Animal movement is fundamental for ecosystem functioning and species survival, yet the effects of the anthropogenic footprint on animal movements have not been estimated across species. Using a unique GPS-tracking database of 803 individuals across 57 species, we found that movements of mammals in areas with a comparatively high human footprint were on average one-half to one-third the extent of their movements in areas with a low human footprint. We attribute this reduction to behavioral changes of individual animals and to the exclusion of species with long-range movements from areas with higher human impact. Global loss of vagility alters a key ecological trait of animals that affects not only population persistence but also ecosystem processes such as predator-prey interactions, nutrient cycling, and disease transmission.
Home range estimation is routine practice in ecological research. While advances in animal tracking technology have increased our capacity to collect data to support home range analysis, these same advances have also resulted in increasingly autocorrelated data. Consequently, the question of which home range estimator to use on modern, highly autocorrelated tracking data remains open. This question is particularly relevant given that most estimators assume independently sampled data. Here, we provide a comprehensive evaluation of the effects of autocorrelation on home range estimation. We base our study on an extensive data set of GPS locations from 369 individuals representing 27 species distributed across five continents. We first assemble a broad array of home range estimators, including Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) with four bandwidth optimizers (Gaussian reference function, autocorrelated‐Gaussian reference function [AKDE], Silverman's rule of thumb, and least squares cross‐validation), Minimum Convex Polygon, and Local Convex Hull methods. Notably, all of these estimators except AKDE assume independent and identically distributed (IID) data. We then employ half‐sample cross‐validation to objectively quantify estimator performance, and the recently introduced effective sample size for home range area estimation ( N̂ area
) to quantify the information content of each data set. We found that AKDE 95% area estimates were larger than conventional IID‐based estimates by a mean factor of 2. The median number of cross‐validated locations included in the hold‐out sets by AKDE 95% (or 50%) estimates was 95.3% (or 50.1%), confirming the larger AKDE ranges were appropriately selective at the specified quantile. Conversely, conventional estimates exhibited negative bias that increased with decreasing N̂ area. To contextualize our empirical results, we performed a detailed simulation study to tease apart how sampling frequency, sampling duration, and the focal animal's movement conspire to affect range estimates. Paralleling our empirical results, the simulation study demonstrated that AKDE was generally more accurate than conventional methods, particularly for small N̂ area. While 72% of the 369 empirical data sets had >1,000 total observations, only 4% had an N̂ area >1,000, where 30% had an N̂ area <30. In this frequently encountered scenario of small N̂ area, AKDE was the only estimator capable of producing an accurate home range estimate on autocorrelated data.
Saber-toothed cats (Machairodontinae) are among the most widely recognized representatives of the now largely extinct Pleistocene megafauna. However, many aspects of their ecology, evolution, and extinction remain uncertain. Although ancient-DNA studies have led to huge advances in our knowledge of these aspects of many other megafauna species (e.g., mammoths and cave bears), relatively few ancient-DNA studies have focused on saber-toothed cats [1-3], and they have been restricted to short fragments of mitochondrial DNA. Here we investigate the evolutionary history of two lineages of saber-toothed cats (Smilodon and Homotherium) in relation to living carnivores and find that the Machairodontinae form a well-supported clade that is distinct from all living felids. We present partial mitochondrial genomes from one S. populator sample and three Homotherium sp. samples, including the only Late Pleistocene Homotherium sample from Eurasia [4]. We confirm the identification of the unique Late Pleistocene European fossil through ancient-DNA analyses, thus strengthening the evidence that Homotherium occurred in Europe over 200,000 years later than previously believed. This in turn forces a re-evaluation of its demography and extinction dynamics. Within the Machairodontinae, we find a deep divergence between Smilodon and Homotherium (similar to 18 million years) but limited diversity between the American and European Homotherium specimens. The genetic data support the hypothesis that all Late Pleistocene (or post-Villafrancian) Homotherium should be considered a single species, H. latidens, which was previously proposed based on morphological data [5, 6].
Coal transitions - part 1
(2021)
A rapid coal phase-out is needed to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, but is hindered by serious challenges ranging from vested interests to the risks of social disruption. To understand how to organize a global coal phase-out, it is crucial to go beyond cost-effective climate mitigation scenarios and learn from the experience of previous coal transitions. Despite the relevance of the topic, evidence remains fragmented throughout different research fields, and not easily accessible. To address this gap, this paper provides a systematic map and comprehensive review of the literature on historical coal transitions. We use computer-assisted systematic mapping and review methods to chart and evaluate the available evidence on historical declines in coal production and consumption. We extracted a dataset of 278 case studies from 194 publications, covering coal transitions in 44 countries and ranging from the end of the 19th century until 2021. We find a relatively recent and rapidly expanding body of literature reflecting the growing importance of an early coal phase-out in scientific and political debates. Previous evidence has primarily focused on the United Kingdom, the United States, and Germany, while other countries that experienced large coal declines, like those in Eastern Europe, are strongly underrepresented. An increasing number of studies, mostly published in the last 5 years, has been focusing on China. Most of the countries successfully reducing coal dependency have undergone both demand-side and supply-side transitions. This supports the use of policy approaches targeting both demand and supply to achieve a complete coal phase-out. From a political economy perspective, our dataset highlights that most transitions are driven by rising production costs for coal, falling prices for alternative energies, or local environmental concerns, especially regarding air pollution. The main challenges for coal-dependent regions are structural change transformations, in particular for industry and labor. Rising unemployment is the most largely documented outcome in the sample. Policymakers at multiple levels are instrumental in facilitating coal transitions. They rely mainly on regulatory instruments to foster the transitions and compensation schemes or investment plans to deal with their transformative processes. Even though many models suggest that coal phase-outs are among the low-hanging fruits on the way to climate neutrality and meeting the international climate goals, our case studies analysis highlights the intricate political economy at work that needs to be addressed through well-designed and just policies.
The Great Nebula in Carina provides an exceptional view into the violent massive star formation and feedback that typifies giant H II regions and starburst galaxies. We have mapped the Carina star-forming complex in X-rays, using archival Chandra data and a mosaic of 20 new 60 ks pointings using the Chandra X-ray Observatory's Advanced CCD Imaging Spectrometer, as a testbed for understanding recent and ongoing star formation and to probe Carina's regions of bright diffuse X-ray emission. This study has yielded a catalog of properties of > 14,000 X-ray point sources;> 9800 of them have multiwavelength counterparts. Using Chandra's unsurpassed X-ray spatial resolution, we have separated these point sources from the extensive, spatially-complex diffuse emission that pervades the region; X-ray properties of this diffuse emission suggest that it traces feedback from Carina's massive stars. In this introductory paper, we motivate the survey design, describe the Chandra observations, and present some simple results, providing a foundation for the 15 papers that follow in this special issue and that present detailed catalogs, methods, and science results.
We present the discovery of a new dwarf galaxy, Hydra II, found serendipitously within the data from the ongoing Survey of the Magellanic Stellar History conducted with the Dark Energy Camera on the Blanco 4 m Telescope. The new satellite is compact (r(h) = 68 +/- 11 pc) and faint (MV = -4.8 +/- 0.3), but well within the realm of dwarf galaxies. The stellar distribution of Hydra II in the color-magnitude diagram is well-described by a metal-poor ([Fe/H] = -2.2) and old (13 Gyr) isochrone and shows a distinct blue horizontal branch, some possible red clump stars, and faint stars that are suggestive of blue stragglers. At a heliocentric distance of 134 +/- 10 kpc, Hydra II is located in a region of the Galactic halo that models have suggested may host material from the leading arm of the Magellanic Stream. A comparison with N-body simulations hints that the new dwarf galaxy could be or could have been a satellite of the Magellanic Clouds.
The Large and Small Magellanic Clouds are unique local laboratories for studying the formation and evolution of small galaxies in exquisite detail. The Survey of the MAgellanic Stellar History (SMASH) is an NOAO community Dark Energy Camera (DECam) survey of the Clouds mapping 480 deg2 (distributed over similar to 2400 square degrees at similar to 20% filling factor) to similar to 24th. mag in ugriz. The primary goals of SMASH are to identify low surface brightness stellar populations associated with the stellar halos and tidal debris of the Clouds, and to derive spatially resolved star formation histories. Here, we present a summary of the survey, its data reduction, and a description of the first public Data Release (DR1). The SMASH DECam data have been reduced with a combination of the NOAO Community Pipeline, the PHOTRED automated point-spread-function photometry pipeline, and custom calibration software. The astrometric precision is similar to 15 mas and the accuracy is similar to 2 mas with respect to the Gaia reference frame. The photometric precision is similar to 0.5%-0.7% in griz and similar to 1% in u with a calibration accuracy of similar to 1.3% in all bands. The median 5s point source depths in ugriz are 23.9, 24.8, 24.5, 24.2, and 23.5 mag. The SMASH data have already been used to discover the Hydra II Milky Way satellite, the SMASH 1 old globular cluster likely associated with the LMC, and extended stellar populations around the LMC out to R. similar to. 18.4 kpc. SMASH DR1 contains measurements of similar to 100 million objects distributed in 61 fields. A prototype version of the NOAO Data Lab provides data access and exploration tools.
We have investigated the structural dynamics in photoexcited 1,2-diiodotetrafluoroethane molecules (C2F4I2) in the gas phase experimentally using ultrafast electron diffraction and theoretically using FOMO-CASCI excited-state dynamics simulations. The molecules are excited by an ultraviolet femtosecond laser pulse to a state characterized by a transition from the iodine 5p perpendicular to orbital to a mixed 5p parallel to sigma hole and CF2 center dot antibonding orbital, which results in the cleavage of one of the carbon-iodine bonds. We have observed, with sub-Angstrom resolution, the motion of the nuclear wave packet of the dissociating iodine atom followed by coherent vibrations in the electronic ground state of the C2F4I radical. The radical reaches a stable classical (nonbridged) structure in less than 200 fs.
The spectrum of the quasar PHL 1226 is known to have a strong Mg II and sub-damped Lymanalpha (sub-DLA) absorption line system with N(H I) = (5 +/- 2) x 10(19) cm(-2) at z = 0.1602. Using integral field spectra from the Potsdam Multi Aperture Spectrophotometer (PMAS) we investigate a galaxy at an impact parameter of 6".4 which is most probably responsible for the absorption lines. A fainter galaxy at a similar redshift and a slightly larger distance from the QSO is known to exist, but we assume that the absorption is caused by the more nearby galaxy. From optical Balmer lines we estimate an intrinsic reddening consistent with 0, and a moderate star formation rate of 0.5 M-circle dot yr(-1) is inferred from the Ha luminosity. Using nebular emission line ratios we find a solar oxygen abundance 12 + log (O/H) = 8.7 +/- 0.1 and a solar nitrogen to oxygen abundance ratio log (N/O) = -1.0 +/- 0.2. This abundance is larger than those of all known sub-DLA systems derived from analyses of metal absorption lines in quasar spectra. On the other hand, the properties are compatible with the most metal rich galaxies responsible for strong Mg II absorption systems. These two categories can be reconciled if we assume an abundance gradient similar to local galaxies. Under that assumption we predict abundances 12 + log (O/H) = 7.1 and log (N/O) = -1.9 for the sub-DLA cloud, which is similar to high redshift DLA and sub-DLA systems. We find evidence for a rotational velocity of similar to200 km s(-1) over a length of similar to7 kpc. From the geometry and kinematics of the galaxy we estimate that the absorbing cloud does not belong to a rotating disk, but could originate in a rotating halo
Integral-field spectrophotometry of the quadruple QSO HE 0435-1223 : Evidence for microlensing
(2003)
We present the first spatially resolved spectroscopic observations of the recently discovered quadruple QSO and gravitational lens HE 0435-1223. Using the Potsdam Multi-Aperture Spectrophotometer (PMAS), we show that all four QSO components have very similar but not identical spectra. In particular, the spectral slopes of components A, B, and D are indistinguishable, implying that extinction due to dust plays no major role in the lensing galaxy. While also the emission line profiles are identical within the error bars, as expected from lensing, the equivalent widths show significant differences between components. Most likely, microlensing is responsible for this phenomenon. This is also consistent with the fact that component D, which shows the highest relative continuum level, has brightened by 0.07 mag since Dec. 2001. We find that the emission line flux ratios between the components are in better agreement with simple lens models than broad band or continuum measurements, but that the discrepancies between model and data are still unacceptably large. Finally, we present a detection of the lensing galaxy, although this is close to the limits of the data. Comparing with a model galaxy spectrum, we obtain a redshift estimate of zlens=0.44+/- 0.02.
This paper presents observations of an extended Lyman-alpha emission nebula surrounding the galaxy responsible for the Damped Lyman-alpha Absorption (DLA) line in the spectrum of the quasar Q2233+131. With the Potsdam Multi Aperture Spectrophotometer (PMAS) we measure the properties of the extended Lyalpha emission in an area of 3" x 5" having a total line flux of (2.8 +/- 0.3) x 10(-16) erg cm(-2) s(-1), which at redshift z = 3.15 corresponds to a luminosity of (2.4(-0.2)(+0.3)) x 10(43) erg s(-1) and a size of 23 x 38 kpc. The location of the emission is spatially coincident with the previously detected DLA galaxy, but extends significantly beyond its limb. We argue that the Lya emission is likely to be caused by an outflow from the DLA galaxy, presumably powered by star formation. In the case of negligible dust extinction, the Lya luminosity indicates a star-formation rate of 19 +/- 10 M-. yr(-1) consistent with that derived from the UV continuum flux from the parent galaxy. The wind velocity indicated by the integral field spectra is of the order of several hundred km s(-1). We find no indication of emission originating in a rotating disk
We present spatially resolved spectrophotometric observations of multiply imaged QSOs, using the Potsdam Multi- Aperture Spectrophotometer (PMAS), with the intention to search for spectral differences between components indicative of either microlensing or dust extinction. For the quadruple QSO HE 0435-1223 we find that the continuum shapes are indistinguishable, therefore differential extinction is negligible. The equivalent widths of the broad emission lines are however significantly different, and we argue that this is most likely due to microlensing. Contrariwise, the two components of the well-known object UM 673 have virtually identical emission line properties, but the continuum slopes differ significantly and indicate different dust extinction along both lines of sight
We report preliminary results from a targeted investigation on quasars containing damped Lyman-alpha absorption (DLA) lines as well strong metal absorption lines, carried out with the Potsdam Multi Aperture Spectrophotometer (PMAS). We search for line-emitting objects at the same redshift as the absorption lines and close to the line of sight of the QSOs. We have observed and detected the already confirmed absorbing galaxies in Q2233+131 (Z(abs) = 3.15) and Q0151+045 (Z(abs),= 0.168), while failing to find spectral signatures for the z = 0.091 absorber in Q0738+313. From the Q2233+131 DLA galaxy, we have detected extended Lyalpha emission from an area of 3" x 5"
We describe a project to study the state of the ISM in similar to20 low redshift (z < 0.3) QSO host galaxies observed with the PMAS integral field spectrograph. We describe the development of the method to access the stellar and gas components of the spectrum without the strong nuclear emission, in order to access the host galaxy properties in the central region. It shows that integral field spectroscopy promises to be very efficient in studying the gas distribution and its velocity field, and also the spatially resolved stellar population in the host galaxies of luminous AGN
Imaging CF3I conical intersection and photodissociation dynamics with ultrafast electron diffraction
(2018)
Conical intersections play a critical role in excited-state dynamics of polyatomic molecules because they govern the reaction pathways of many nonadiabatic processes. However, ultrafast probes have lacked sufficient spatial resolution to image wave-packet trajectories through these intersections directly. Here, we present the simultaneous experimental characterization of one-photon and two-photon excitation channels in isolated CF3I molecules using ultrafast gas-phase electron diffraction. In the two-photon channel, we have mapped out the real-space trajectories of a coherent nuclear wave packet, which bifurcates onto two potential energy surfaces when passing through a conical intersection. In the one-photon channel, we have resolved excitation of both the umbrella and the breathing vibrational modes in the CF3 fragment in multiple nuclear dimensions. These findings benchmark and validate ab initio nonadiabatic dynamics calculations.
From 5.5 months of dual-band optical photometric monitoring at the 1 mmag level, BRITE-Constellation has revealed two simultaneous types of variability in the O4I(n)fp star ζ Puppis: one single periodic non-sinusoidal component superimposed on a stochastic component. The monoperiodic component is the 1.78-d signal previously detected by Coriolis/Solar Mass Ejection Imager, but this time along with a prominent first harmonic. The shape of this signal changes over time, a behaviour that is incompatible with stellar oscillations but consistent with rotational modulation arising from evolving bright surface inhomogeneities. By means of a constrained non-linear light-curve inversion algorithm, we mapped the locations of the bright surface spots and traced their evolution. Our simultaneous ground-based multisite spectroscopic monitoring of the star unveiled cyclical modulation of its He ii λ4686 wind emission line with the 1.78-d rotation period, showing signatures of corotating interaction regions that turn out to be driven by the bright photospheric spots observed by BRITE. Traces of wind clumps are also observed in the He ii λ4686 line and are correlated with the amplitudes of the stochastic component of the light variations probed by BRITE at the photosphere, suggesting that the BRITE observations additionally unveiled the photospheric drivers of wind clumps in ζ Pup and that the clumping phenomenon starts at the very base of the wind. The origins of both the bright surface inhomogeneities and the stochastic light variations remain unknown, but a subsurface convective zone might play an important role in the generation of these two types of photospheric variability.
The Cassini-Huygens Cosmic Dust Analyzer (CDA) is intended to provide direct observations of dust grains with masses between 10(-19) and 10(-9) kg in interplanetary space and in the jovian and saturnian systems, to investigate their physical, chemical and dynamical properties as functions of the distances to the Sun, to Jupiter and to Saturn and its satellites and rings, to study their interaction with the saturnian rings, satellites and magnetosphere. Chemical composition of interplanetary meteoroids will be compared with asteroidal and cometary dust, as well as with Saturn dust, ejecta from rings and satellites. Ring and satellites phenomena which might be effects of meteoroid impacts will be compared with the interplanetary dust environment. Electrical charges of particulate matter in the magnetosphere and its consequences will be studied, e.g. the effects of the ambient plasma and the magnetic held on the trajectories of dust particles as well as fragmentation of particles due to electrostatic disruption. The investigation will be performed with an instrument that measures the mass, composition, electric charge, speed, and flight direction of individual dust particles. It is a highly reliable and versatile instrument with a mass sensitivity 106 times higher than that of the Pioneer 10 and I I dust detectors which measured dust in the saturnian system. The Cosmic Dust Analyzer has significant inheritance from former space instrumentation developed for the VEGA, Giotto, Galileo, and Ulysses missions. It will reliably measure impacts from as low as I impact per month up to 104 impacts per second. The instrument weighs 17 kg and consumes 12 W, the integrated time-of-flight mass spectrometer has a mass resolution of up to 50. The nominal data transmission rate is 524 bits/s and varies between 50 and 4192 bps
Aus dem Inhalt: Ankündigungen - 4. Jahrestagung des AMG “Die besetzte res publica” in Halle 2001 - Mitgliederversammlung des AMG auf dem Historikertag in Aachen 2000 - Internationale Zitadellen-Tagung in Spandau 2001 Tagungsbericht - Militär und ländliche Gesellschaft in der Frühen Neuzeit. Ein Tagungsbericht (Daniel Hohrath) Interview - Interview mit Dr. Mathias Rogg. Werner-Hahlweg-Preisträger 2000 (Olaf Gründel) Projektberichte - Die Homepage des AMG und ihre Erweiterung (Norbert Winnige) - Ein Jahr in Deutschland. Ein Bericht (Shuhei Sakaguchi) - Der Dreißigjährige Krieg in München (Torsten F. Reimer) - Digitale Erschließung von Quellen zum preußischen Kantonsystem (Norbert Winnige, Martin Winter) - Ancien Régime Warfare and the Military Revolution - a Study (Jürgen Luh) - Das Rapportbuch der preußischen Füsilierkompanie des Freiherrn von Dörnberg 1803/1805 (Lutz Voigtländer) - Die Grafschaft Hohenlohe im Dreißigjährigen Krieg in der Nachkriegszeit (Frank Kleinehagenbrock) - Der Krieg der Fürsten und die Städte: Belagerungen im 18. Jahrhundert (Daniel Hohrath) - Gewerbe und Militär in der Garnison- und Festungsstadt Wesel im 18. Jahrhundert (Angela Giebmeyer) - Die Wiener Stadtguardia und der Dreißigjährige Krieg (Thomas Just, Andreas Weigl) Veröffentlichungen - Begründung einer Schriftenreihe des AMG - Veröffentlichungen des AMG
In this paper, we investigate HNCO by resonant and nonresonant Auger electron spectroscopy at the K-edges of carbon, nitrogen, and oxygen, employing soft X-ray synchrotron radiation. In comparison with the isosteric but linear CO2 molecule, spectra of the bent HNCO molecule are similar but more complex due to its reduced symmetry, wherein the degeneracy of the π-orbitals is lifted. Resonant Auger electron spectra are presented at different photon energies over the first core-excited 1s → 10a′ resonance. All Auger electron spectra are assigned based on ab initio configuration interaction computations combined with the one-center approximation for Auger intensities and moment theory to consider vibrational motion. The calculated spectra were scaled by a newly introduced energy scaling factor, and generally, good agreement is found between experiment and theory for normal as well as resonant Auger electron spectra. A comparison of resonant Auger spectra with nonresonant Auger structures shows a slight broadening as well as a shift of the former spectra between −8 and −9 eV due to the spectating electron. Since HNCO is a small molecule and contains the four most abundant atoms of organic molecules, the reported Auger electron decay spectra will provide a benchmark for further theoretical approaches in the computation of core electron spectra.
Wildfires affect biodiversity at multiple levels. While vegetation is directly changed by fire events, animals are often indirectly affected through changes in habitat and food availability. Globally, fire frequency and the extent of fires are predicted to increase in the future. The impact of fire on the biodiversity of temperate wetlands has gained little attention so far. We compared species richness and abundance of plants and birds in burnt and unburnt areas in the Amur floodplain/Russian Far East in the year of fire and 1 year after. We also analysed vegetation recovery in relation to time since fire over a period of 18 years. Plant species richness was higher in burnt compared to unburnt plots in the year of the fire, but not in the year after. This suggests that fire has a positive short-term effect on plant diversity. Bird species richness and abundance were lower on burnt compared to unburnt plots in the year of the fire, but not in the year after. Over a period of 18 years, high fire frequency led to an increase in herb cover and a decrease in grass cover. We show that the effects on biodiversity are taxon- and species-specific. Fire management strategies in temperate wetlands should consider fire frequency as a key driving force of vegetation structure, with carry-over effects on higher trophic levels. Designing fire refuges, i.e., areas that do not burn annually, might locally be necessary to maintain high species richness.
The photochemical ring-opening of 1,3-cyclohexadiene imaged by ultrafast electron diffraction
(2019)
The ultrafast photoinduced ring-opening of 1,3-cyclohexadiene constitutes a textbook example of electrocyclic reactions in organic chemistry and a model for photobiological reactions in vitamin D synthesis. Although the relaxation from the photoexcited electronic state during the ring-opening has been investigated in numerous studies, the accompanying changes in atomic distance have not been resolved. Here we present a direct and unambiguous observation of the ring-opening reaction path on the femtosecond timescale and subangstrom length scale using megaelectronvolt ultrafast electron diffraction. We followed the carbon-carbon bond dissociation and the structural opening of the 1,3-cyclohexadiene ring by the direct measurement of time-dependent changes in the distribution of interatomic distances. We observed a substantial acceleration of the ring-opening motion after internal conversion to the ground state due to a steepening of the electronic potential gradient towards the product minima. The ring-opening motion transforms into rotation of the terminal ethylene groups in the photoproduct 1,3,5-hexatriene on the subpicosecond timescale.
Knie- und Hüftgelenksarthrose zählen zu den zehn häufigsten Einzeldiagnosen in orthopädischen Praxen. Die Wirksamkeit einer stationären Rehabilitation für Patienten nach Knie- oder Hüft-Totalendoprothese (TEP) ist in mehreren Studien belegt. Dennoch stellt die mittel- und langfristige Nachhaltigkeit zum Erhalt des Therapieerfolges eine große Herausforderung dar. Das Ziel des Projekts ReMove-It ist es, einen Wirksamkeitsnachweis für eintelemedizinisch assistiertes Interventionstraining für Patienten nach einem operativen Eingriff an den unteren Extremitäten zu erbringen.
In dem Beitrag wird anhand von Erfahrungsberichten dargestellt, wie das interaktive Übungsprogramm für Knie- und Hüft-TEP-Patienten entwickelt und das telemedizinische Assistenzsystem MeineReha® in den Behandlungsalltag von drei Rehakliniken integriert wurde. Ebenso werden der Aufbau und Ablauf der klinischen Studie dargestellt und das System aus Sicht der beteiligten Ärzte, und Therapeuten bewertet.
Using the recently built Global Naturalized Alien Flora (GloNAF) database, containing data on the distribution of naturalized alien plants in 483 mainland and 361 island regions of the world, we describe patterns in diversity and geographic distribution of naturalized and invasive plant species, taxonomic, phylogenetic and life-history structure of the global naturalized flora as well as levels of naturalization and their determinants. The mainland regions with the highest numbers of naturalized aliens are some Australian states (with New South Wales being the richest on this continent) and several North American regions (of which California with 1753 naturalized plant species represents the worlds richest region in terms of naturalized alien vascular plants). England, Japan, New Zealand and the Hawaiian archipelago harbour most naturalized plants among islands or island groups. These regions also form the main hotspots of the regional levels of naturalization, measured as the percentage of naturalized aliens in the total flora of the region. Such hotspots of relative naturalized species richness appear on both the western and eastern coasts of North America, in north-western Europe, South Africa, south-eastern Australia, New Zealand, and India. High levels of island invasions by naturalized plants are concentrated in the Pacific, but also occur on individual islands across all oceans. The numbers of naturalized species are closely correlated with those of native species, with a stronger correlation and steeper increase for islands than mainland regions, indicating a greater vulnerability of islands to invasion by species that become successfully naturalized. South Africa, India, California, Cuba, Florida, Queensland and Japan have the highest numbers of invasive species. Regions in temperate and tropical zonobiomes harbour in total 9036 and 6774 naturalized species, respectively, followed by 3280 species naturalized in the Mediterranean zonobiome, 3057 in the subtropical zonobiome and 321 in the Arctic. The New World is richer in naturalized alien plants, with 9905 species compared to 7923 recorded in the Old World. While isolation is the key factor driving the level of naturalization on islands, zonobiomes differing in climatic regimes, and socioeconomy represented by per capita GDP, are central for mainland regions. The 11 most widely distributed species each occur in regions covering about one third of the globe or more in terms of the number of regions where they are naturalized and at least 35% of the Earths land surface in terms of those regions areas, with the most widely distributed species Sonchus oleraceus occuring in 48% of the regions that cover 42% of the world area. Other widely distributed species are Ricinus communis, Oxalis corniculata, Portulaca oleracea, Eleusine indica, Chenopodium album, Capsella bursa-pastoris, Stellaria media, Bidens pilosa, Datura stramonium and Echinochloa crus-galli. Using the occurrence as invasive rather than only naturalized yields a different ranking, with Lantana camara (120 regions out of 349 for which data on invasive status are known), Calotropis procera (118), Eichhornia crassipes (113), Sonchus oleraceus (108) and Leucaena leucocephala (103) on top. As to the life-history spectra, islands harbour more naturalized woody species (34.4%) thanmainland regions (29.5%), and fewer annual herbs (18.7% compared to 22.3%). Ranking families by their absolute numbers of naturalized species reveals that Compositae (1343 species), Poaceae (1267) and Leguminosae (1189) contribute most to the global naturalized alien flora. Some families are disproportionally represented by naturalized aliens on islands (Arecaceae, Araceae, Acanthaceae, Amaryllidaceae, Asparagaceae, Convolvulaceae, Rubiaceae, Malvaceae), and much fewer so on mainland (e.g. Brassicaceae, Caryophyllaceae, Boraginaceae). Relating the numbers of naturalized species in a family to its total global richness shows that some of the large species-rich families are over-represented among naturalized aliens (e.g. Poaceae, Leguminosae, Rosaceae, Amaranthaceae, Pinaceae), some under-represented (e.g. Euphorbiaceae, Rubiaceae), whereas the one richest in naturalized species, Compositae, reaches a value expected from its global species richness. Significant phylogenetic signal indicates that families with an increased potential of their species to naturalize are not distributed randomly on the evolutionary tree. Solanum (112 species), Euphorbia (108) and Carex (106) are the genera richest in terms of naturalized species; over-represented on islands are Cotoneaster, Juncus, Eucalyptus, Salix, Hypericum, Geranium and Persicaria, while those relatively richer in naturalized species on the mainland are Atriplex, Opuntia, Oenothera, Artemisia, Vicia, Galium and Rosa. The data presented in this paper also point to where information is lacking and set priorities for future data collection. The GloNAF database has potential for designing concerted action to fill such data gaps, and provide a basis for allocating resources most efficiently towards better understanding and management of plant invasions worldwide.
Background
High blood glucose and diabetes are amongst the conditions causing the greatest losses in years of healthy life worldwide. Therefore, numerous studies aim to identify reliable risk markers for development of impaired glucose metabolism and type 2 diabetes. However, the molecular basis of impaired glucose metabolism is so far insufficiently understood. The development of so called 'omics' approaches in the recent years promises to identify molecular markers and to further understand the molecular basis of impaired glucose metabolism and type 2 diabetes. Although univariate statistical approaches are often applied, we demonstrate here that the application of multivariate statistical approaches is highly recommended to fully capture the complexity of data gained using high-throughput methods.
Methods
We took blood plasma samples from 172 subjects who participated in the prospective Metabolic Syndrome Berlin Potsdam follow-up study (MESY-BEPO Follow-up). We analysed these samples using Gas Chromatography coupled with Mass Spectrometry (GC-MS), and measured 286 metabolites. Furthermore, fasting glucose levels were measured using standard methods at baseline, and after an average of six years. We did correlation analysis and built linear regression models as well as Random Forest regression models to identify metabolites that predict the development of fasting glucose in our cohort.
Results
We found a metabolic pattern consisting of nine metabolites that predicted fasting glucose development with an accuracy of 0.47 in tenfold cross-validation using Random Forest regression. We also showed that adding established risk markers did not improve the model accuracy. However, external validation is eventually desirable. Although not all metabolites belonging to the final pattern are identified yet, the pattern directs attention to amino acid metabolism, energy metabolism and redox homeostasis.
Conclusions
We demonstrate that metabolites identified using a high-throughput method (GC-MS) perform well in predicting the development of fasting plasma glucose over several years. Notably, not single, but a complex pattern of metabolites propels the prediction and therefore reflects the complexity of the underlying molecular mechanisms. This result could only be captured by application of multivariate statistical approaches. Therefore, we highly recommend the usage of statistical methods that seize the complexity of the information given by high-throughput methods.
A large number and wide variety of lake ecosystem models have been developed and published during the past four decades. We identify two challenges for making further progress in this field. One such challenge is to avoid developing more models largely following the concept of others ('reinventing the wheel'). The other challenge is to avoid focusing on only one type of model, while ignoring new and diverse approaches that have become available ('having tunnel vision'). In this paper, we aim at improving the awareness of existing models and knowledge of concurrent approaches in lake ecosystem modelling, without covering all possible model tools and avenues. First, we present a broad variety of modelling approaches. To illustrate these approaches, we give brief descriptions of rather arbitrarily selected sets of specific models. We deal with static models (steady state and regression models), complex dynamic models (CAEDYM, CE-QUAL-W2, Delft 3D-ECO, LakeMab, LakeWeb, MyLake, PCLake, PROTECH, SALMO), structurally dynamic models and minimal dynamic models. We also discuss a group of approaches that could all be classified as individual based: super-individual models (Piscator, Charisma), physiologically structured models, stage-structured models and traitbased models. We briefly mention genetic algorithms, neural networks, Kalman filters and fuzzy logic. Thereafter, we zoom in, as an in-depth example, on the multi-decadal development and application of the lake ecosystem model PCLake and related models (PCLake Metamodel, Lake Shira Model, IPH-TRIM3D-PCLake). In the discussion, we argue that while the historical development of each approach and model is understandable given its 'leading principle', there are many opportunities for combining approaches. We take the point of view that a single 'right' approach does not exist and should not be strived for. Instead, multiple modelling approaches, applied concurrently to a given problem, can help develop an integrative view on the functioning of lake ecosystems. We end with a set of specific recommendations that may be of help in the further development of lake ecosystem models.
A large number and wide variety of lake ecosystem models have been developed and published during the past four decades. We identify two challenges for making further progress in this field. One such challenge is to avoid developing more models largely following the concept of others ('reinventing the wheel'). The other challenge is to avoid focusing on only one type of model, while ignoring new and diverse approaches that have become available ('having tunnel vision'). In this paper, we aim at improving the awareness of existing models and knowledge of concurrent approaches in lake ecosystem modelling, without covering all possible model tools and avenues. First, we present a broad variety of modelling approaches. To illustrate these approaches, we give brief descriptions of rather arbitrarily selected sets of specific models. We deal with static models (steady state and regression models), complex dynamic models (CAEDYM, CE-QUAL-W2, Delft 3D-ECO, LakeMab, LakeWeb, MyLake, PCLake, PROTECH, SALMO), structurally dynamic models and minimal dynamic models. We also discuss a group of approaches that could all be classified as individual based: super-individual models (Piscator, Charisma), physiologically structured models, stage-structured models and traitbased models. We briefly mention genetic algorithms, neural networks, Kalman filters and fuzzy logic. Thereafter, we zoom in, as an in-depth example, on the multi-decadal development and application of the lake ecosystem model PCLake and related models (PCLake Metamodel, Lake Shira Model, IPH-TRIM3D-PCLake). In the discussion, we argue that while the historical development of each approach and model is understandable given its 'leading principle', there are many opportunities for combining approaches. We take the point of view that a single 'right' approach does not exist and should not be strived for. Instead, multiple modelling approaches, applied concurrently to a given problem, can help develop an integrative view on the functioning of lake ecosystems. We end with a set of specific recommendations that may be of help in the further development of lake ecosystem models.
We report on the first multi-colour precision light curve of the bright Wolf-Rayet binary gamma(2) Velorum, obtained over six months with the nanosatellites in the BRITE-Constellation fleet. In parallel, we obtained 488 high-resolution optical spectra of the system. In this first report on the data sets, we revise the spectroscopic orbit and report on the bulk properties of the colliding winds. We find a dependence of both the light curve and excess emission properties that scales with the inverse of the binary separation. When analysing the spectroscopic properties in combination with the photometry, we find that the phase dependence is caused only by excess emission in the lines, and not from a changing continuum. We also detect a narrow, high-velocity absorption component from the He perpendicular to lambda 5876 transition, which appears twice in the orbit. We calculate smoothed-particle hydrodynamical simulations of the colliding winds and can accurately associate the absorption from He perpendicular to to the leading and trailing arms of the wind shock cone passing tangentially through our line of sight. The simulations also explain the general strength and kinematics of the emission excess observed in wind lines such as C III lambda 5696 of the system. These results represent the first in a series of investigations into the winds and properties of gamma(2) Velorum through multi-technique and multi-wavelength observational campaigns.
The future of ancient DNA
(2015)
Technological innovations such as next generation sequencing and DNA hybridisation enrichment have resulted in multi-fold increases in both the quantity of ancient DNA sequence data and the time depth for DNA retrieval. To date, over 30 ancient genomes have been sequenced, moving from 0.7x coverage (mammoth) in 2008 to more than 50x coverage (Neanderthal) in 2014. Studies of rapid evolutionary changes, such as the evolution and spread of pathogens and the genetic responses of hosts, or the genetics of domestication and climatic adaptation, are developing swiftly and the importance of palaeogenomics for investigating evolutionary processes during the last million years is likely to increase considerably. However, these new datasets require new methods of data processing and analysis, as well as conceptual changes in interpreting the results. In this review we highlight important areas of future technical and conceptual progress and discuss research topics in the rapidly growing field of palaeogenomics.
The Great Hungarian Plain was a crossroads of cultural transformations that have shaped European prehistory. Here we analyse a 5,000-year transect of human genomes, sampled from petrous bones giving consistently excellent endogenous DNA yields, from 13 Hungarian Neolithic, Copper, Bronze and Iron Age burials including two to high (similar to 22x) and seven to similar to 1x coverage, to investigate the impact of these on Europe's genetic landscape. These data suggest genomic shifts with the advent of the Neolithic, Bronze and Iron Ages, with interleaved periods of genome stability. The earliest Neolithic context genome shows a European hunter-gatherer genetic signature and a restricted ancestral population size, suggesting direct contact between cultures after the arrival of the first farmers into Europe. The latest, Iron Age, sample reveals an eastern genomic influence concordant with introduced Steppe burial rites. We observe transition towards lighter pigmentation and surprisingly, no Neolithic presence of lactase persistence.
We extend the scope of European palaeogenomics by sequencing the genomes of Late Upper Palaeolithic (13,300 years old, 1.4-fold coverage) and Mesolithic (9,700 years old, 15.4-fold) males from western Georgia in the Caucasus and a Late Upper Palaeolithic (13,700 years old, 9.5-fold) male from Switzerland. While we detect Late Palaeolithic–Mesolithic genomic continuity in both regions, we find that Caucasus hunter-gatherers (CHG) belong to a distinct ancient clade that split from western hunter-gatherers ∼45 kya, shortly after the expansion of anatomically modern humans into Europe and from the ancestors of Neolithic farmers ∼25 kya, around the Last Glacial Maximum. CHG genomes significantly contributed to the Yamnaya steppe herders who migrated into Europe ∼3,000 BC, supporting a formative Caucasus influence on this important Early Bronze age culture. CHG left their imprint on modern populations from the Caucasus and also central and south Asia possibly marking the arrival of Indo-Aryan languages.
We extend the scope of European palaeogenomics by sequencing the genomes of Late Upper Palaeolithic (13,300 years old, 1.4-fold coverage) and Mesolithic (9,700 years old, 15.4-fold) males from western Georgia in the Caucasus and a Late Upper Palaeolithic (13,700 years old, 9.5-fold) male from Switzerland. While we detect Late Palaeolithic-Mesolithic genomic continuity in both regions, we find that Caucasus hunter-gatherers (CHG) belong to a distinct ancient clade that split from western hunter-gatherers similar to 45 kya, shortly after the expansion of anatomically modern humans into Europe and from the ancestors of Neolithic farmers similar to 25 kya, around the Last Glacial Maximum. CHG genomes significantly contributed to the Yamnaya steppe herders who migrated into Europe similar to 3,000 BC, supporting a formative Caucasus influence on this important Early Bronze age culture. CHG left their imprint on modern populations from the Caucasus and also central and south Asia possibly marking the arrival of Indo-Aryan languages.
We present an excerpt of the document "Quantum Information Processing and Communication: Strategic report on current status, visions and goals for research in Europe", which has been recently published in electronic form at the website of FET (the Future and Emerging Technologies Unit of the Directorate General Information Society of the European Commission, http://www.cordis.lu/ist/fet/qipc-sr.htm). This document has been elaborated, following a former suggestion by FET, by a committee of QIPC scientists to provide input towards the European Commission for the preparation of the Seventh Framework Program. Besides being a document addressed to policy makers and funding agencies (both at the European and national level), the document contains a detailed scientific assessment of the state-of-the-art, main research goals, challenges, strengths, weaknesses, visions and perspectives of all the most relevant QIPC sub-fields, that we report here
Technological innovations such as next generation sequencing and DNA hybridisation enrichment have resulted in multi-fold increases in both the quantity of ancient DNA sequence data and the time depth for DNA retrieval. To date, over 30 ancient genomes have been sequenced, moving from 0.7x coverage (mammoth) in 2008 to more than 50x coverage (Neanderthal) in 2014. Studies of rapid evolutionary changes, such as the evolution and spread of pathogens and the genetic responses of hosts, or the genetics of domestication and climatic adaptation, are developing swiftly and the importance of palaeogenomics for investigating evolutionary processes during the last million years is likely to increase considerably. However, these new datasets require new methods of data processing and analysis, as well as conceptual changes in interpreting the results. In this review we highlight important areas of future technical and conceptual progress and discuss research topics in the rapidly growing field of palaeogenomics.
Measurements of benthic foraminiferal cadmium:calcium (Cd/Ca) have indicated that the glacial-interglacial change in deep North Pacific phosphate (PO4) concentration was minimal which has been taken by some, workers as a sign that the biological pump did not store more carbon in the deep glacial ocean. Here we present sedimentary redox- sensitive trace metal records from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 882 (NW subarctic Pacific, water depth 3244 m) to make inferences about changes in deep North Pacific oxygenation and thus respired carbon storage - over the past 150,000 yr. These observations are complemented with biogenic barium and opal measurements as indicators for past organic carbon export to separate the influences of deep-water oxygen concentration and sedimentary organic carbon respiration on the redox state of the sediment. Our results suggest that the deep subarctic Pacific water mass was deleted in ox en during glacial maxima, though it was not anoxic. We reconcile our results with the existing benthic foraminiferal Cd/Ca by invoking a decrease in the fraction of the deep ocean nutrient inventory that was preformed, rather than remineralized. This change would have corresponded to an increase in the deep Pacific storage of respired carbon, which Would have lowered atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) by sequestering CO2 away from the atmosphere and by increasing ocean alkalinity through a transient dissolution event in the deep sea. The magnitude of change in preformed nutrients suggested by the North Pacific data Would have accounted for a majority of the observed decrease in glacial atmospheric PCO2.
Objective: Retinol is transported in a complex with retinol-binding protein 4 (RBP4) and transthyretin (TTR) in the circulation. While retinol is associated with various cardiovascular risk factors, the relation between retinol, RBP4, TTR and carotid intima media thickness (IMT) has not been analysed yet. Methods: Retinol, RBP4 and TTR were measured in 96 individuals and their relation to mean and maximal IMT was determined. Results: Mean IMT correlated with RBP4 (r = 0.335, p < 0.001), retinol (r = -0.241, p = 0.043), RBP/TTR ratio (r = 0.254, p = 0.025) and retinol/RBP4 ratio (r = -0.549, p < 0.001). Adjustment for age, sex, BMI, blood pressure, HDL/total cholesterol ratio, triglyceride, diabetes and smoking revealed that the retinol/RBP4 ratio was strongly and independently associated with mean IMT. Similar results were found for maximal IMT, which included the measurement of plaques. Conclusion: The data support that the transport complex of vitamin A is associated with the IMT, an established parameter of atherosclerosis. Changes in RBP4 saturation with retinol may link renal dysfunction and insulin resistance to atherosclerosis.
Aim Biotic interactions within guilds or across trophic levels have widely been ignored in species distribution models (SDMs). This synthesis outlines the development of species interaction distribution models (SIDMs), which aim to incorporate multispecies interactions at large spatial extents using interaction matrices. Location Local to global. Methods We review recent approaches for extending classical SDMs to incorporate biotic interactions, and identify some methodological and conceptual limitations. To illustrate possible directions for conceptual advancement we explore three principal ways of modelling multispecies interactions using interaction matrices: simple qualitative linkages between species, quantitative interaction coefficients reflecting interaction strengths, and interactions mediated by interaction currencies. We explain methodological advancements for static interaction data and multispecies time series, and outline methods to reduce complexity when modelling multispecies interactions. Results Classical SDMs ignore biotic interactions and recent SDM extensions only include the unidirectional influence of one or a few species. However, novel methods using error matrices in multivariate regression models allow interactions between multiple species to be modelled explicitly with spatial co-occurrence data. If time series are available, multivariate versions of population dynamic models can be applied that account for the effects and relative importance of species interactions and environmental drivers. These methods need to be extended by incorporating the non-stationarity in interaction coefficients across space and time, and are challenged by the limited empirical knowledge on spatio-temporal variation in the existence and strength of species interactions. Model complexity may be reduced by: (1) using prior ecological knowledge to set a subset of interaction coefficients to zero, (2) modelling guilds and functional groups rather than individual species, and (3) modelling interaction currencies and species effect and response traits. Main conclusions There is great potential for developing novel approaches that incorporate multispecies interactions into the projection of species distributions and community structure at large spatial extents. Progress can be made by: (1) developing statistical models with interaction matrices for multispecies co-occurrence datasets across large-scale environmental gradients, (2) testing the potential and limitations of methods for complexity reduction, and (3) sampling and monitoring comprehensive spatio-temporal data on biotic interactions in multispecies communities.
Early acquisition of a second language influences the development of language abilities and cognitive functions. In the present study, we used functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) to investigate the impact of early bilingualism on the organization of the cortical language network during sentence production. Two groups of adult multilinguals, proficient in three languages, were tested on a narrative task; early multilinguals acquired the second language before the age of three years, late multilinguals after the age of nine. All participants learned a third language after nine years of age. Comparison of the two groups revealed substantial differences in language-related brain activity for early as well as late acquired languages. Most importantly, early multilinguals preferentially activated a fronto-striatal network in the left hemisphere, whereas the left posterior superior temporal gyrus (pSTG) was activated to a lesser degree than in late multilinguals. The same brain regions were highlighted in previous studies when a non-target language had to be controlled. Hence the engagement of language control in adult early multilinguals appears to be influenced by the specific learning and acquisition conditions during early childhood. Remarkably, our results reveal that the functional control of early and subsequently later acquired languages is similarly affected, suggesting that language experience has a pervasive influence into adulthood. As such, our findings extend the current understanding of control functions in multilinguals.
We present a new integral field spectroscopic dataset of the central part of the Orion Nebula (M 42), observed with the MUSE instrument at the ESO VLT. We reduced the data with the public MUSE pipeline. The output products are two FITS cubes with a spatial size of similar to 5'9 x 4'9 (corresponding to similar to 0.76 x 0.63 pc(2)) and a contiguous wavelength coverage of 4595 ... 9366 angstrom, spatially sampled at 0 ''.2. We provide two versions with a sampling of 1.25 angstrom and 0.85 angstrom in dispersion direction. Together with variance cubes these files have a size of 75 and 110 GiB on disk. They are the largest integral field mosaics to date in terms of information content. We make them available for use in the community. To validate this dataset, we compare world coordinates, reconstructed magnitudes, velocities, and absolute and relative emission line fluxes to the literature values and find excellent agreement. We derive a 2D map of extinction and present de-reddened flux maps of several individual emission lines and of diagnostic line ratios. We estimate physical properties of the Orion Nebula, using the emission line ratios [N II] and [S III] (for the electron temperature T-e) and [S II] and [Cl III] (for the electron density N-e), and show 2D images of the velocity measured from several bright emission lines.
This review presents recommended nomenclature for the biosynthesis of ribosomally synthesized and post-translationally modified peptides (RiPPs), a rapidly growing class of natural products. The current knowledge regarding the biosynthesis of the >20 distinct compound classes is also reviewed, and commonalities are discussed.
Bilingual speakers are faced with the problem to keep their languages apart, but do so with interindividually varying success. Cognitive control abilities might be an important factor to explain such interindividual differences. Here we compare two late, balanced and highly proficient bilingual groups (mean age 24 years, L1 Russian, L2 German) which were established according to their language control abilities on a bilingual picture-naming task. One group had difficulties to remain in the instructed target language and switched unintentionally to the non-target language ("switchers"), whereas the other group rarely switched unintentionally ("non-switchers"). This group-specific behavior could not be explained by language background, socio-cultural, or demographic variables. Rather, the non-switchers also demonstrated a faster and better performance on four cognitive control tests (Tower of Hanoi, Ruff Figural Fluency Test, Divided Attention, Go/Nogo). Here, we focus on two additional executive function tasks, theWisconsin Card SortingTest (WCST) and the Flanker task requiring conflict monitoring and conflict resolution. Non-switchers outperformed switchers with regard to speed and accuracy, and were better at finding and applying the correct rules in the WCST. Similarly, in the Flanker task non-switchers performed faster and better on conflict trials and had a higher correction rate following an error. Event-related potential recordings furthermore revealed a smaller error-related negativity in the non-switchers, taken as evidence for a more efficient self-monitoring system. We conclude that bilingual language performance, in particular switching behavior, is related to performance on cognitive control tasks. Better cognitive control, including conflict monitoring, results in decreased unintentional switching.
The optical properties of semiconductor nanocrystals (SC NCs) are largely controlled by their size and surface chemistry, i.e., the chemical composition and thickness of inorganic passivation shells and the chemical nature and number of surface ligands as well as the strength of their bonds to surface atoms. The latter is particularly important for CdTe NCs, which – together with alloyed CdxHg1−xTe – are the only SC NCs that can be prepared in water in high quality without the need for an additional inorganic passivation shell. Aiming at a better understanding of the role of stabilizing ligands for the control of the application-relevant fluorescence features of SC NCs, we assessed the influence of two of the most commonly used monodentate thiol ligands, thioglycolic acid (TGA) and mercaptopropionic acid (MPA), on the colloidal stability, photoluminescence (PL) quantum yield (QY), and PL decay behavior of a set of CdTe NC colloids. As an indirect measure for the strength of the coordinative bond of the ligands to SC NC surface atoms, the influence of the pH (pD) and the concentration on the PL properties of these colloids was examined in water and D2O and compared to the results from previous dilution studies with a set of thiol-capped Cd1−xHgxTe SC NCs in D2O. As a prerequisite for these studies, the number of surface ligands was determined photometrically at different steps of purification after SC NC synthesis with Ellman's test. Our results demonstrate ligand control of the pH-dependent PL of these SC NCs, with MPA-stabilized CdTe NCs being less prone to luminescence quenching than TGA-capped ones. For both types of CdTe colloids, ligand desorption is more pronounced in H2O compared to D2O, underlining also the role of hydrogen bonding and solvent molecules.
Formalizing informal logic
(2015)
In this paper we investigate the extent to which formal argumentation models can handle ten basic characteristics of informal logic identified in the informal logic literature. By showing how almost all of these characteristics can be successfully modelled formally, we claim that good progress can be made toward the project of formalizing informal logic. Of the formal argumentation models available, we chose the Carneades Argumentation System (CAS), a formal, computational model of argument that uses argument graphs as its basis, structures of a kind very familiar to practitioners of informal logic through their use of argument diagrams.
Animal reproductive proteins, especially those in the seminal fluid, have been shown to have higher levels of divergence than non-reproductive proteins and are often evolving adaptively. Seminal fluid proteins have been implicated in the formation of reproductive barriers between diverging lineages, and hence represent interesting candidates underlying speciation. RNA-seq was used to generate the first male reproductive transcriptome for the New Zealand tree weta species Hemideina thoracica and H. crassidens. We identified 865 putative reproductive associated proteins across both species, encompassing a diverse range of functional classes. Candidate gene sequencing of nine genes across three Hemideina, and two Deinacrida species suggests that H. thoracica has the highest levels of intra-specific genetic diversity. Non-monophyly was observed in the majority of sequenced genes indicating that either gene flow may be occurring between the species, or that reciprocal monophyly at these loci has yet to be attained. Evidence for positive selection was found for one lectin-related reproductive protein, with an overall omega of 7.65 and one site in particular being under strong positive selection. This candidate gene represents the first step in the identification of proteins underlying the evolutionary basis of weta reproduction and speciation.
Stellar post asymptotic giant branch (post-AGB) evolution can be completely altered by a final thermal pulse (FTP) which may occur when the star is still leaving the AGB (AFTP), at the departure from the AGB at still constant luminosity (late TP, LTP) or after the entry to the white-dwarf cooling sequence (very late TP, VLTP). Then convection mixes the Herich material with the H-rich envelope. According to stellar evolution models the result is a star with a surface composition of H approximate to 20 per cent by mass (AFTP), approximate to 1 per cent (LTP), or (almost) no H (VLTP). Since FTP stars exhibit intershell material at their surface, spectral analyses establish constraints for AGB nucleosynthesis and stellar evolution. We performed a spectral analysis of the so-called hybrid PG 1159-type central stars (CS) of the planetary nebulae Abell 43 and NGC7094 by means of non-local thermodynamical equilibrium models. We confirm the previously determined effective temperatures of T-eff = 115 000 +/- 5 000K and determine surface gravities of log (g /(cm s(-2))) = 5.6 +/- 0.1 for both. From a comparison with AFTP evolutionary tracks, we derive stellar masses of 0.57(-0.04)(+0.07)M(circle dot) and determine the abundances of H, He, and metals up to Xe. Both CS are likely AFTP stars with a surface H mass fraction of 0.25 +/- 0.03 and 0.15 +/- 0.03, respectively, and an Fe deficiency indicating subsolar initial metallicities. The light metals show typical PG 1159-type abundances and the elemental composition is in good agreement with predictions from AFTP evolutionary models. However, the expansion ages do not agree with evolution time-scales expected from the AFTP scenario and alternatives should be explored.
Recent policy changes highlight the need for citizens to take adaptive actions to reduce flood-related impacts. Here, we argue that these changes represent a wider behavioral turn in flood risk management (FRM). The behavioral turn is based on three fundamental assumptions: first, that the motivations of citizens to take adaptive actions can be well understood so that these motivations can be targeted in the practice of FRM; second, that private adaptive measures and actions are effective in reducing flood risk; and third, that individuals have the capacities to implement such measures. We assess the extent to which the assumptions can be supported by empirical evidence. We do this by engaging with three intellectual catchments. We turn to research by psychologists and other behavioral scientists which focus on the sociopsychological factors which influence individual motivations (Assumption 1). We engage with economists, engineers, and quantitative risk analysts who explore the extent to which individuals can reduce flood related impacts by quantifying the effectiveness and efficiency of household-level adaptive measures (Assumption 2). We converse with human geographers and sociologists who explore the types of capacities households require to adapt to and cope with threatening events (Assumption 3). We believe that an investigation of the behavioral turn is important because if the outlined assumptions do not hold, there is a risk of creating and strengthening inequalities in FRM. Therefore, we outline the current intellectual and empirical knowledge as well as future research needs. Generally, we argue that more collaboration across intellectual catchments is needed, that future research should be more theoretically grounded and become methodologically more rigorous and at the same time focus more explicitly on the normative underpinnings of the behavioral turn.
Recent policy changes highlight the need for citizens to take adaptive actions to reduce flood-related impacts. Here, we argue that these changes represent a wider behavioral turn in flood risk management (FRM). The behavioral turn is based on three fundamental assumptions: first, that the motivations of citizens to take adaptive actions can be well understood so that these motivations can be targeted in the practice of FRM; second, that private adaptive measures and actions are effective in reducing flood risk; and third, that individuals have the capacities to implement such measures. We assess the extent to which the assumptions can be supported by empirical evidence. We do this by engaging with three intellectual catchments. We turn to research by psychologists and other behavioral scientists which focus on the sociopsychological factors which influence individual motivations (Assumption 1). We engage with economists, engineers, and quantitative risk analysts who explore the extent to which individuals can reduce flood related impacts by quantifying the effectiveness and efficiency of household-level adaptive measures (Assumption 2). We converse with human geographers and sociologists who explore the types of capacities households require to adapt to and cope with threatening events (Assumption 3). We believe that an investigation of the behavioral turn is important because if the outlined assumptions do not hold, there is a risk of creating and strengthening inequalities in FRM. Therefore, we outline the current intellectual and empirical knowledge as well as future research needs. Generally, we argue that more collaboration across intellectual catchments is needed, that future research should be more theoretically grounded and become methodologically more rigorous and at the same time focus more explicitly on the normative underpinnings of the behavioral turn.
The Great Hungarian Plain was a crossroads of cultural transformations that have shaped European prehistory. Here we analyse a 5,000-year transect of human genomes, sampled from petrous bones giving consistently excellent endogenous DNA yields, from 13 Hungarian Neolithic, Copper, Bronze and Iron Age burials including two to high (similar to 22x) and seven to similar to 1x coverage, to investigate the impact of these on Europe's genetic landscape. These data suggest genomic shifts with the advent of the Neolithic, Bronze and Iron Ages, with interleaved periods of genome stability. The earliest Neolithic context genome shows a European hunter-gatherer genetic signature and a restricted ancestral population size, suggesting direct contact between cultures after the arrival of the first farmers into Europe. The latest, Iron Age, sample reveals an eastern genomic influence concordant with introduced Steppe burial rites. We observe transition towards lighter pigmentation and surprisingly, no Neolithic presence of lactase persistence.
Early acquisition of a second language influences the development of language abilities and cognitive functions. In the present study, we used functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) to investigate the impact of early bilingualism on the organization of the cortical language network during sentence production. Two groups of adult multilinguals, proficient in three languages, were tested on a narrative task; early multilinguals acquired the second language before the age of three years, late multilinguals after the age of nine. All participants learned a third language after nine years of age. Comparison of the two groups revealed substantial differences in language-related brain activity for early as well as late acquired languages. Most importantly, early multilinguals preferentially activated a fronto-striatal network in the left hemisphere, whereas the left posterior superior temporal gyrus (pSTG) was activated to a lesser degree than in late multilinguals. The same brain regions were highlighted in previous studies when a non-target language had to be controlled. Hence the engagement of language control in adult early multilinguals appears to be influenced by the specific learning and acquisition conditions during early childhood. Remarkably, our results reveal that the functional control of early and subsequently later acquired languages is similarly affected, suggesting that language experience has a pervasive influence into adulthood. As such, our findings extend the current understanding of control functions in multilinguals.
The Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) is one of the main drivers of decadal climate variability in the North Atlantic. Here we analyze its dynamics in pre-industrial control simulations of 19 different comprehensive coupled climate models. The analysis is based on a recently proposed description of the SPG dynamics that found the circulation to be potentially bistable due to a positive feedback mechanism including salt transport and enhanced deep convection in the SPG center. We employ a statistical method to identify multiple equilibria in time series that are subject to strong noise and analyze composite fields to assess whether the bistability results from the hypothesized feedback mechanism. Because noise dominates the time series in most models, multiple circulation modes can unambiguously be detected in only six models. Four of these six models confirm that the intensification is caused by the positive feedback mechanism.
Writing a history of a scientific theory is always difficult because it requires to focus on some key contributors and to "reconstruct" some supposed influences. In the 1970s, a new way of performing science under the name "chaos" emerged, combining the mathematics from the nonlinear dynamical systems theory and numerical simulations. To provide a direct testimony of how contributors can be influenced by other scientists or works, we here collected some writings about the early times of a few contributors to chaos theory. The purpose is to exhibit the diversity in the paths and to bring some elements-which were never published-illustrating the atmosphere of this period. Some peculiarities of chaos theory are also discussed.
An ensemble of 10 hydrological models was applied to the same set of land use change scenarios. There was general agreement about the direction of changes in the mean annual discharge and 90% discharge percentile predicted by the ensemble members, although a considerable range in the magnitude of predictions for the scenarios and catchments under consideration was obvious. Differences in the magnitude of the increase were attributed to the different mean annual actual evapotranspiration rates for each land use type. The ensemble of model runs was further analyzed with deterministic and probabilistic ensemble methods. The deterministic ensemble method based on a trimmed mean resulted in a single somewhat more reliable scenario prediction. The probabilistic reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method allowed a quantification of the model structure uncertainty in the scenario predictions. It was concluded that the use of a model ensemble has greatly increased our confidence in the reliability of the model predictions.
Materials for polymer electronics applications semiconducting polymer thin films and nanoparticles
(2004)
The paper presents two different approaches to nanostructured semiconducting polymer materials: (i) the generation of aqueous semiconducting polymer dispersions (semiconducting polymer nanospheres SPNs) and their processing into dense films and layers, and (ii) the synthesis of novel semiconducting polyfluorene-block-polyaniline (PF-b-PANI) block copolymers composed of conjugated blocks of different redox potentials which form nanosized morphologies in the solid state
All around the globe, humans have greatly altered the abiotic and biotic environment with ever-increasing speed. One defining feature of the Anthropocene epoch(1,2) is the erosion of biogeographical barriers by human-mediated dispersal of species into new regions, where they can naturalize and cause ecological, economic and social damage(3). So far, no comprehensive analysis of the global accumulation and exchange of alien plant species between continents has been performed, primarily because of a lack of data. Here we bridge this knowledge gap by using a unique global database on the occurrences of naturalized alien plant species in 481 mainland and 362 island regions. In total, 13,168 plant species, corresponding to 3.9% of the extant global vascular flora, or approximately the size of the native European flora, have become naturalized somewhere on the globe as a result of human activity. North America has accumulated the largest number of naturalized species, whereas the Pacific Islands show the fastest increase in species numbers with respect to their land area. Continents in the Northern Hemisphere have been the major donors of naturalized alien species to all other continents. Our results quantify for the first time the extent of plant naturalizations worldwide, and illustrate the urgent need for globally integrated efforts to control, manage and understand the spread of alien species.
Background Problem behaviour theory postulates that different forms of norm violations cluster and can be explained by similar antecedents. One such cluster may include cyberbullying and cyberhate perpetration. A potential explanatory mechanism includes toxic online disinhibition, characterised by anonymity, an inability to empathise and to recognise and interpret social cues. The current study to develop a better understanding of the relationship between cyberhate and cyberbullying to inform effective intervention and prevention efforts. Aims To test the link between cyberbullying and cyberhate and whether this relationship was moderated by toxic online disinhibition. Methods Self-report questionnaires on cyberbullying, cyberhate, and toxic online disinhibition were completed by 1,480 adolescents between 12 and 17 years old (M = 14.21 years; SD = 1.68). Results Increases in cyberbullying perpetration and toxic online disinhibition were positively related to cyberhate perpetration. Furthermore, cyberbullies reported more cyberhate perpetration when they reported higher levels of toxic online disinhibition and less frequent cyberhate perpetration when they reported lower levels of toxic online disinhibition. Conclusion The current study provides evidence of a possible link between cyberbullying and cyberhate perpetration, moderated by toxic online disinhibition. This suggests that, to be effective, prevention and intervention programmes should (i) consider the co-occurrence of varying forms of cyberaggression and (ii) consider potential effects of the online environment on aggressive online behaviour among young people.
This paper reports on a project to compare predictions from a range of catchment models applied to a mesoscale river basin in central Germany and to assess various ensemble predictions of catchment streamflow. The models encompass a large range in inherent complexity and input requirements. In approximate order of decreasing complexity, they are DHSVM, MIKE-SHE, TOPLATS, WASIM-ETH, SWAT, PRMS, SLURP, HBV, LASCAM and IHACRES. The models are calibrated twice using different sets of input data. The two predictions from each model are then combined by simple averaging to produce a single-model ensemble. The 10 resulting single-model ensembles are combined in various ways to produce multi-model ensemble predictions. Both the single-model ensembles and the multi-model ensembles are shown to give predictions that are generally superior to those of their respective constituent models, both during a 7-year calibration period and a 9- year validation period. This occurs despite a considerable disparity in performance of the individual models. Even the weakest of models is shown to contribute useful information to the ensembles they are part of. The best model combination methods are a trimmed mean (constructed using the central four or six predictions each day) and a weighted mean ensemble (with weights calculated from calibration performance) that places relatively large weights on the better performing models. Conditional ensembles. in which separate model weights are used in different system states (e.g. summer and winter, high and low flows) generally yield little improvement over the weighted mean ensemble. However a conditional ensemble that discriminates between rising and receding flows shows moderate improvement. An analysis of ensemble predictions shows that the best ensembles are not necessarily those containing the best individual models. Conversely, it appears that some models that predict well individually do not necessarily combine well with other models in multi-model ensembles. The reasons behind these observations may relate to the effects of the weighting schemes, non- stationarity of the climate series and possible cross-correlations between models.
River ecosystems receive and process vast quantities of terrestrial organic carbon, the fate of which depends strongly on microbial activity. Variation in and controls of processing rates, however, are poorly characterized at the global scale. In response, we used a peer-sourced research network and a highly standardized carbon processing assay to conduct a global-scale field experiment in greater than 1000 river and riparian sites. We found that Earth’s biomes have distinct carbon processing signatures. Slow processing is evident across latitudes, whereas rapid rates are restricted to lower latitudes. Both the mean rate and variability decline with latitude, suggesting temperature constraints toward the poles and greater roles for other environmental drivers (e.g., nutrient loading) toward the equator. These results and data set the stage for unprecedented “next-generation biomonitoring” by establishing baselines to help quantify environmental impacts to the functioning of ecosystems at a global scale.
We report on both high-precision photometry from the Microvariability and Oscillations of Stars (MOST) space telescope and ground-based spectroscopy of the triple system delta Ori A, consisting of a binary O9.5II+early-B (Aa1 and Aa2) with P = 5.7 days, and a more distant tertiary (O9 IV P > 400 years). This data was collected in concert with X-ray spectroscopy from the Chandra X-ray Observatory. Thanks to continuous coverage for three weeks, the MOST light curve reveals clear eclipses between Aa1 and Aa2 for the first time in non-phased data. From the spectroscopy, we have a well-constrained radial velocity (RV) curve of Aa1. While we are unable to recover RV variations of the secondary star, we are able to constrain several fundamental parameters of this system and determine an approximate mass of the primary using apsidal motion. We also detected second order modulations at 12 separate frequencies with spacings indicative of tidally influenced oscillations. These spacings have never been seen in a massive binary, making this system one of only a handful of such binaries that show evidence for tidally induced pulsations.
Consequences of twenty-first-century policy for multi-millennial climate
and sea-level change
(2016)
Most of the policy debate surrounding the actions needed to mitigate and adapt to anthropogenic climate change has been framed by observations of the past 150 years as well as climate and sea-level projections for the twenty-first century. The focus on this 250-year window, however, obscures some of the most profound problems associated with climate change. Here, we argue that the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, a period during which the overwhelming majority of human-caused carbon emissions are likely to occur, need to be placed into a long-term context that includes the past 20 millennia, when the last Ice Age ended and human civilization developed, and the next ten millennia, over which time the projected impacts of anthropogenic climate change will grow and persist. This long-term perspective illustrates that policy decisions made in the next few years to decades will have profound impacts on global climate, ecosystems and human societies - not just for this century, but for the next ten millennia and beyond.
IntroductionPostoperative delirium (POD) is a common and serious adverse event of surgery in older people. Because of its great impact on patients' safety and quality of life, identification of modifiable risk factors could be useful. Although preoperative medication intake is assumed to be an important modifiable risk factor, the impact of anticholinergic drugs on the occurrence of POD seems underestimated in elective surgery. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between preoperative anticholinergic burden and POD. We hypothesized that a high preoperative anticholinergic burden is an independent, potentially modifiable predisposing and precipitating factor of POD in older people. MethodsBetween November 2017 and April 2019, 1,470 patients of 70 years and older undergoing elective orthopedic, general, cardiac, or vascular surgery were recruited in the randomized, prospective, multicenter PAWEL trial. Anticholinergic burden of a sub-cohort of 899 patients, who did not receive a multimodal intervention for preventing POD, was assessed by two different tools at hospital admission: The established Anticholinergic Risk Scale (ARS) and the recently developed Anticholinergic Burden Score (ABS). POD was detected by confusion assessment method (CAM) and a validated post discharge medical record review. Logistic regression analyses were performed to evaluate the association between anticholinergic burden and POD. ResultsPOD was observed in 210 of 899 patients (23.4%). Both ARS and ABS were independently associated with POD. The association persisted after adjustment for relevant confounding factors such as age, sex, comorbidities, preoperative cognitive and physical status, number of prescribed drugs, surgery time, type of surgery and anesthesia, usage of heart-lung-machine, and treatment in intensive care unit. If a patient was taking one of the 56 drugs listed in the ABS, risk for POD was 2.7-fold higher (OR = 2.74, 95% CI = 1.55-4.94) and 1.5-fold higher per additional point on the ARS (OR = 1.54, 95% CI = 1.15-2.02). ConclusionPreoperative anticholinergic drug exposure measured by ARS or ABS was independently associated with POD in older patients undergoing elective surgery. Therefore, identification, discontinuation or substitution of anticholinergic medication prior to surgery may be a promising approach to reduce the risk of POD in older patients.
Via the reaction of diexo-oxanorbornanedicarboxylic anhydride with toluene, the diexo-aroylcarboxylic acid (3a) was prepared, which exists partly as the tautomeric lactol (3b). With bifunctional reagents, 3a yields fused heterocycles containing three-six rings. Thus, alkylenediamines result in imidazole- and 1,3-diazepine-fused oxygen- bridged isoindolones (6a,b), alkanolamines form the oxazole- and 1,3-oxazine-fused oxanorbornene derivatives (7a-c), and o-phenylenediamine undergoes cyclization to furnish the condensed benzimidazole (8). The reaction of 3a with diexo- aminonorbornanecarbohydrazide yields a pyrimidopyridazine containing six condensed rings (9). In a similar reaction with diendo-aminonorbornenecarbohydrazide, cyclopentadiene cleaves off to give the tricyclic retro Diels-Alder product (10). The structures, and particulary the configurations at the oxanorbornane ring systems and the position of the aryl substituent, were established by means of 1D- and 2D-NMR spectroscopy and, for 3b and 7c, also by X-Ray measurements
Although temporal heterogeneity is a well-accepted driver of biodiversity, effects of interannual variation in land-use intensity (LUI) have not been addressed yet. Additionally, responses to land use can differ greatly among different organisms; therefore, overall effects of land-use on total local biodiversity are hardly known. To test for effects of LUI (quantified as the combined intensity of fertilization, grazing, and mowing) and interannual variation in LUI (SD in LUI across time), we introduce a unique measure of whole-ecosystem biodiversity, multidiversity. This synthesizes individual diversity measures across up to 49 taxonomic groups of plants, animals, fungi, and bacteria from 150 grasslands. Multidiversity declined with increasing LUI among grasslands, particularly for rarer species and aboveground organisms, whereas common species and belowground groups were less sensitive. However, a high level of interannual variation in LUI increased overall multidiversity at low LUI and was even more beneficial for rarer species because it slowed the rate at which the multidiversity of rare species declined with increasing LUI. In more intensively managed grasslands, the diversity of rarer species was, on average, 18% of the maximum diversity across all grasslands when LUI was static over time but increased to 31% of the maximum when LUI changed maximally over time. In addition to decreasing overall LUI, we suggest varying LUI across years as a complementary strategy to promote biodiversity conservation.
The interplay between nanomorphology and efficiency of polymer-fullerene bulk-heterojunction (BHJ) solar cells has been the subject of intense research, but the generality of these concepts for small-molecule (SM) BHJs remains unclear. Here, the relation between performance; charge generation, recombination, and extraction dynamics; and nanomorphology achievable with two SM donors benzo[1,2-b:4,5-b]dithiophene-pyrido[3,4-b]-pyrazine BDT(PPTh2)(2), namely SM1 and SM2, differing by their side-chains, are examined as a function of solution additive composition. The results show that the additive 1,8-diiodooctane acts as a plasticizer in the blends, increases domain size, and promotes ordering/crystallinity. Surprisingly, the system with high domain purity (SM1) exhibits both poor exciton harvesting and severe charge trapping, alleviated only slightly with increased crystallinity. In contrast, the system consisting of mixed domains and lower crystallinity (SM2) shows both excellent exciton harvesting and low charge recombination losses. Importantly, the onset of large, pure crystallites in the latter (SM2) system reduces efficiency, pointing to possible differences in the ideal morphologies for SM-based BHJ solar cells compared with polymer-fullerene devices. In polymer-based systems, tie chains between pure polymer crystals establish a continuous charge transport network, whereas SM-based active layers may in some cases require mixed domains that enable both aggregation and charge percolation to the electrodes.
Background
Postoperative delirium is a common disorder in older adults that is associated with higher morbidity and mortality, prolonged cognitive impairment, development of dementia, higher institutionalization rates, and rising healthcare costs. The probability of delirium after surgery increases with patients’ age, with pre-existing cognitive impairment, and with comorbidities, and its diagnosis and treatment is dependent on the knowledge of diagnostic criteria, risk factors, and treatment options of the medical staff. In this study, we will investigate whether a cross-sectoral and multimodal intervention for preventing delirium can reduce the prevalence of delirium and postoperative cognitive decline (POCD) in patients older than 70 years undergoing elective surgery. Additionally, we will analyze whether the intervention is cost-effective.
Methods
The study will be conducted at five medical centers (with two or three surgical departments each) in the southwest of Germany. The study employs a stepped-wedge design with cluster randomization of the medical centers. Measurements are performed at six consecutive points: preadmission, preoperative, and postoperative with daily delirium screening up to day 7 and POCD evaluations at 2, 6, and 12 months after surgery. Recruitment goals are to enroll 1500 patients older than 70 years undergoing elective operative procedures (cardiac, thoracic, vascular, proximal big joints and spine, genitourinary, gastrointestinal, and general elective surgery procedures.
Discussion
Results of the trial should form the basis of future standards for preventing delirium and POCD in surgical wards. Key aims are the improvement of patient safety and quality of life, as well as the reduction of the long-term risk of conversion to dementia. Furthermore, from an economic perspective, we expect benefits and decreased costs for hospitals, patients, and healthcare insurances.
Trial registration
German Clinical Trials Register, DRKS00013311. Registered on 10 November 2017.
The primary aim of the current study was to examine the unique contribution of psychological need frustration and need satisfaction in the prediction of adults’ mental well-being and ill-being in a heterogeneous sample of adults (N = 334; Mage = 43.33, SD = 32.26; 53% females). Prior to this, validity evidence was provided for the German version of the Basic Psychological Need Satisfaction and Frustration Scale (BPNSFS) based on Self-Determination Theory (SDT). The results of the validation analyses found the German BPNSFS to be a valid and reliable measurement. Further, structural equation modeling (SEM) showed that both need satisfaction and frustration yielded unique and opposing associations with well-being. Specifically, the dimension of psychological need frustration predicted adults’ ill-being. Future research should examine whether frustration of psychological needs is involved in the onset and maintenance of psychopathology (e.g., major depressive disorder).
Background
Postoperative delirium is a common disorder in older adults that is associated with higher morbidity and mortality, prolonged cognitive impairment, development of dementia, higher institutionalization rates, and rising healthcare costs. The probability of delirium after surgery increases with patients’ age, with pre-existing cognitive impairment, and with comorbidities, and its diagnosis and treatment is dependent on the knowledge of diagnostic criteria, risk factors, and treatment options of the medical staff. In this study, we will investigate whether a cross-sectoral and multimodal intervention for preventing delirium can reduce the prevalence of delirium and postoperative cognitive decline (POCD) in patients older than 70 years undergoing elective surgery. Additionally, we will analyze whether the intervention is cost-effective.
Methods
The study will be conducted at five medical centers (with two or three surgical departments each) in the southwest of Germany. The study employs a stepped-wedge design with cluster randomization of the medical centers. Measurements are performed at six consecutive points: preadmission, preoperative, and postoperative with daily delirium screening up to day 7 and POCD evaluations at 2, 6, and 12 months after surgery. Recruitment goals are to enroll 1500 patients older than 70 years undergoing elective operative procedures (cardiac, thoracic, vascular, proximal big joints and spine, genitourinary, gastrointestinal, and general elective surgery procedures.
Discussion
Results of the trial should form the basis of future standards for preventing delirium and POCD in surgical wards. Key aims are the improvement of patient safety and quality of life, as well as the reduction of the long-term risk of conversion to dementia. Furthermore, from an economic perspective, we expect benefits and decreased costs for hospitals, patients, and healthcare insurances.
Trial registration
German Clinical Trials Register, DRKS00013311. Registered on 10 November 2017.
Physiological mechanisms of an anti-depressive effect of physical exercise in major depressive disorder (MDD) seem to involve alterations in brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) level. However, previous studies which investigated this effect in a single bout of exercise, did not control for confounding peripheral factors that contribute to BDNF-alterations. Therefore, the underlying cause of exercise-induced BDNF-changes remains unclear. The current study aims to investigate serum BDNF (sBDNF)-changes due to a single-bout of graded aerobic exercise in a group of 30 outpatients with MDD, suggesting a more precise analysis method by taking plasma volume shift and number of platelets into account. Results show that exercise-induced increases in sBDNF remain significant (p<.001) when adjusting for plasma volume shift and controlling for number of platelets. The interaction of sBDNF change and number of platelets was also significant (p=.001) indicating larger sBDNF-increase in participants with smaller number of platelets. Thus, findings of this study suggest an involvement of peripheral as well as additional possibly brain-derived mechanisms explaining exercise-related BDNF release in MDD. For future studies in the field of exercise-related BDNF research, the importance of controlling for peripheral parameters is emphasized.
Hypervelocity stars are rare objects, mostly main-sequence (MS) B stars, traveling so fast that they will eventually escape from the Milky Way. Recently, it has been shown that the popular Hills mechanism, in which a binary system is disrupted via a close encounter with the supermassive black hole at the Galactic center, may not be their only ejection mechanism. The analyses of Gaia data ruled out a Galactic center origin for some of them, and instead indicated that they are extreme disk runaway stars ejected at velocities exceeding the predicted limits of classical scenarios (dynamical ejection from star clusters or binary supernova ejection). We present the discovery of a new extreme disk runaway star, PG 1610+062, which is a slowly pulsating B star bright enough to be studied in detail. A quantitative analysis of spectra taken with ESI at the Keck Observatory revealed that PG 1610+062 is a late B-type MS star of 4–5 M⊙ with low projected rotational velocity. Abundances (C, N, O, Ne, Mg, Al, Si, S, Ar, and Fe) were derived differentially with respect to the normal B star HD 137366 and indicate that PG 1610+062 is somewhat metal rich. A kinematic analysis, based on our spectrophotometric distance (17.3 kpc) and on proper motions from Gaia’s second data release, shows that PG 1610+062 was probably ejected from the Carina-Sagittarius spiral arm at a velocity of 550 ± 40 km s−1, which is beyond the classical limits. Accordingly, the star is in the top five of the most extreme MS disk runaway stars and is only the second among the five for which the chemical composition is known.