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The information about climate change impact on river discharge is vitally important for planning adaptation measures. The future changes can affect different water-related sectors. The main goal of this study was to investigate the potential water resource changes in Ukraine, focusing on three mesoscale river catchments (Teteriv, UpperWestern Bug, and Samara) characteristic for different geographical zones. The catchment scale watershed model—Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM)—was setup, calibrated, and validated for the three catchments under consideration. A set of seven GCM-RCM (General Circulation Model-Regional Climate Model) coupled climate scenarios corresponding to RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways) 4.5 and 8.5 were used to drive the hydrological catchment model. The climate projections, used in the study, were considered as three combinations of low, intermediate, and high end scenarios. Our results indicate the shifts in the seasonal distribution of runoff in all three catchments. The spring high flow occurs earlier as a result of temperature increases and earlier snowmelt. The fairly robust trend is an increase in river discharge in the winter season, and most of the scenarios show a potential decrease in river discharge in the spring.
Background
Back pain patients (BPP) show delayed muscle onset, increased co-contractions, and variability as response to quasi-static sudden trunk loading in comparison to healthy controls (H). However, it is unclear whether these results can validly be transferred to suddenly applied walking perturbations, an automated but more functional and complex movement pattern. There is an evident need to develop research-based strategies for the rehabilitation of back pain. Therefore, the investigation of differences in trunk stability between H and BPP in functional movements is of primary interest in order to define suitable intervention regimes. The purpose of this study was to analyse neuromuscular reflex activity as well as three-dimensional trunk kinematics between H and BPP during walking perturbations.
Methods
Eighty H (31m/49f;29±9yrs;174±10cm;71±13kg) and 14 BPP (6m/8f;30±8yrs;171±10cm;67±14kg) walked (1m/s) on a split-belt treadmill while 15 right-sided perturbations (belt decelerating, 40m/s2, 50ms duration; 200ms after heel contact) were randomly applied. Trunk muscle activity was assessed using a 12-lead EMG set-up. Trunk kinematics were measured using a 3-segment-model consisting of 12 markers (upper thoracic (UTA), lower thoracic (LTA), lumbar area (LA)). EMG-RMS ([%],0-200ms after perturbation) was calculated and normalized to the RMS of unperturbed gait. Latency (TON;ms) and time to maximum activity (TMAX;ms) were analysed. Total motion amplitude (ROM;[°]) and mean angle (Amean;[°]) for extension-flexion, lateral flexion and rotation were calculated (whole stride cycle; 0-200ms after perturbation) for each of the three segments during unperturbed and perturbed gait. For ROM only, perturbed was normalized to unperturbed step [%] for the whole stride as well as the 200ms after perturbation. Data were analysed descriptively followed by a student´s t-test to account for group differences. Co-contraction was analyzed between ventral and dorsal muscles (V:R) as well as side right:side left ratio (Sright:Sleft). The coefficient of variation (CV;%) was calculated (EMG-RMS;ROM) to evaluate variability between the 15 perturbations for all groups. With respect to unequal distribution of participants to groups, an additional matched-group analysis was conducted. Fourteen healthy controls out of group H were sex-, age- and anthropometrically matched (group Hmatched) to the BPP.
Results
No group differences were observed for EMG-RMS or CV analysis (EMG/ROM) (p>0.025). Co-contraction analysis revealed no differences for V:R and Srigth:Sleft between the groups (p>0.025). BPP showed an increased TON and TMAX, being significant for Mm. rectus abdominus (p = 0.019) and erector spinae T9/L3 (p = 0.005/p = 0.015). ROM analysis over the unperturbed stride cycle revealed no differences between groups (p>0.025). Normalization of perturbed to unperturbed step lead to significant differences for the lumbar segment (LA) in lateral flexion with BPP showing higher normalized ROM compared to Hmatched (p = 0.02). BPP showed a significant higher flexed posture (UTA (p = 0.02); LTA (p = 0.004)) during normal walking (Amean). Trunk posture (Amean) during perturbation showed higher trunk extension values in LTA segments for H/Hmatched compared to BPP (p = 0.003). Matched group (BPP vs. Hmatched) analysis did not show any systematic changes of all results between groups.
Conclusion
BPP present impaired muscle response times and trunk posture, especially in the sagittal and transversal planes, compared to H. This could indicate reduced trunk stability and higher loading during gait perturbations.
Editorial
(2017)
Vom Handeln und Schmusen
(2017)
„Gelobt seist du, Ewiger!“
(2017)
‚Ma‘oz tsur jeshu‘ati‘
(2017)
„Sei es Dein Wille, Herr“
(2017)
The Indian Ocean
(2017)
Introduction: Adequate cognitive function in patients is a prerequisite for successful implementation of patient education and lifestyle coping in comprehensive cardiac rehabilitation (CR) programs. Although the association between cardiovascular diseases and cognitive impairments (CIs) is well known, the prevalence particularly of mild CI in CR and the characteristics of affected patients have been insufficiently investigated so far.
Methods: In this prospective observational study, 496 patients (54.5 ± 6.2 years, 79.8% men) with coronary artery disease following an acute coronary event (ACE) were analyzed. Patients were enrolled within 14 days of discharge from the hospital in a 3-week inpatient CR program. Patients were tested for CI using the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) upon admission to and discharge from CR. Additionally, sociodemographic, clinical, and physiological variables were documented. The data were analyzed descriptively and in a multivariate stepwise backward elimination regression model with respect to CI.
Results: At admission to CR, the CI (MoCA score < 26) was determined in 182 patients (36.7%). Significant differences between CI and no CI groups were identified, and CI group was associated with high prevalence of smoking (65.9 vs 56.7%, P = 0.046), heavy (physically demanding) workloads (26.4 vs 17.8%, P < 0.001), sick leave longer than 1 month prior to CR (28.6 vs 18.5%, P = 0.026), reduced exercise capacity (102.5 vs 118.8 W, P = 0.006), and a shorter 6-min walking distance (401.7 vs 421.3 m, P = 0.021) compared to no CI group. The age- and education-adjusted model showed positive associations with CI only for sick leave more than 1 month prior to ACE (odds ratio [OR] 1.673, 95% confidence interval 1.07–2.79; P = 0.03) and heavy workloads (OR 2.18, 95% confidence interval 1.42–3.36; P < 0.01).
Conclusion: The prevalence of CI in CR was considerably high, affecting more than one-third of cardiac patients. Besides age and education level, CI was associated with heavy workloads and a longer sick leave before ACE.
Reform um jeden Preis
(2017)
Mental arithmetic exhibits various biases. Among those is a tendency to overestimate addition and to underestimate subtraction outcomes. Does such “operational momentum” (OM) also affect multiplication and division? Twenty-six adults produced lines whose lengths corresponded to the correct outcomes of multiplication and division problems shown in symbolic format. We found a reliable tendency to over-estimate division outcomes, i.e., reverse OM. We suggest that anchoring on the first operand (a tendency to use this number as a reference for further quantitative reasoning) contributes to cognitive biases in mental arithmetic.
Vermessung im Sonnensystem
(2017)
Die bisherigen Missionen ins Sonnensystem lieferten eine enorme Fülle an Daten in unterschiedlichen Formaten und in Form von Bildern und digitalen Messergebnissen. Die Oberflächenprozesse der planetaren Körper, die mit Hilfe dieser Daten erforscht werden können, sind äußerst vielfältig und reichen von Einschlagskratern über Vulkanismus und Tektonik zu allen Formen der Erosion und Sedimentation. Um diese Prozesse verstehen zu können werden Verfahren angewendet, die für die Datenanalyse auf der Erde entwickelt wurden. Allerdings ist es notwendig all diese Verfahren zum Teil mit erheblichem Aufwand und unter Berücksichtigung der jeweiligen physikalischen Rahmenbedingungen anzupassen. Die Entwicklung kartographischer Verfahren zur Abstraktion der hier angesprochenen Informationen, also die Erfassung, geomorphologische Analyse und Visualisierung planetarer Oberflächen und Prozesse, hat jedoch gerade erst begonnen. Um diese Entwicklungen voranzutreiben, hat das Deutsche Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt in Kooperation mit der Universität Potsdam (Institut für Geographie, Fachgruppe Geoinformatik, Prof. Dr. Asche), im Rahmen von Dissertationen und Forschungsvorhaben, in einem ersten Schritt kartographische Analyseverfahren für den Mars und die Asteroiden Ceres und Vesta entwickelt.
Das in den USA bereits weit verbreitete Predictive Policing, die vorhersagende
Polizeiarbeit, entwickelt sich seit zwei bis drei Jahren auch auf dem deutschen
Sicherheitsmarkt sehr dynamisch. Unter Nutzung und Weiterentwicklung von
Geographischen Informationssystemen sowie raumbasierter Algorithmen und
Modellierungen werden für beliebige Orte die Auftrittswahrscheinlichkeiten von
Straftaten ermittelt. In der Praxis erhält damit die Polizei ortsbezogene Hinweise
für die strategische Planung ihrer Einsätze. Für die Humangeographie und die
Geoinformatik ist Predictive Policing also ein äußerst interessantes Beobachtungsund
Betätigungsfeld, das in diesem Beitrag unter die Lupe genommen werden soll.
Dabei wird es weniger um die GIS-technischen und mathematisch-statistischen
Hintergründe des Predictive Policing gehen. Vielmehr sollen einige Gedanken
geäußert werden, weshalb sich dieses Instrument auf dem Sicherheitsmarkt etablieren
konnte und über welche Potenziale und Grenzen des Predictive Policing
von Vertreter(inne)n aus Politik, Polizei, Kriminalsoziologie und Geographie diskutiert
wird.
Laudatio
(2017)
Magier der Macht
(2017)