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The development of rise Cenozoic East African Rift System (EARS) profoundly re-shaped the landscape and significantly increased the amplitude of short-term environmental response to climate variation. In particular, the development of amplifier lakes in rift basins after three million years ago significantly contributed to this exceptional sensitivity of East Africa to climate change compared to elsewhere on the African continent. Amplifier lakes are characterized by tectonically-formed graben morphologies in combination with an extreme contrast between high precipitation in the elevated parts of the catchment and high evaporation in the lake area. Such amplifier lakes respond rapidly to moderate, precessional-forced climate shifts, and as they do so apply dramatic environmental pressure to the biosphere. Rift basins, when either extremely dry or lake-filled, form important barriers for migration, mixing and competition of different populations of animals and hominins. Amplifier lakes link long-term, high-amplitude tectonic processes and short-term environmental fluctuations. East Africa may have become the place where early humans evolved as a consequence of this strong link between different time scales. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Cenozoic uplift of the East African Plateau has been associated with fundamental climatic and environmental changes in East Africa and adjacent regions. While this influence is widely accepted, the timing and the magnitude of plateau uplift have remained unclear. This uncertainty stems from the lack of datable, geomorphically meaningful reference horizons that could record surface uplift. Here, we document the existence of significant relief along the East African Plateau prior to rifting, as inferred from modeling the emplacement history of one of the longest terrestrial lava flows, the similar to 300-km-long Yatta phonolite flow in Kenya. This 13.5 Ma lava flow originated on the present-day eastern Kenya Rift flank, and utilized a riverbed that once routed runoff from the eastern rim of the plateau. Combining an empirical viscosity model with subsequent cooling and using the Yatta lava flow geometry and underlying paleotopography (slope angle), we found that the prerift slope was at least 0.2 degrees, suggesting that the lava flow originated at a minimum elevation of 1400 m. Hence, high paleotopography in the Kenya Rift region must have existed by at least 13.5 Ma. We infer from this that middle Miocene uplift occurred, which coincides with the two-step expansion of grasslands, as well as important radiation and speciation events in tropical Africa.
Explaining the presence of normal faults in overall compressive settings is a challenging problem in understanding the tectonics of active mountain belts. The Himalayan-Tibetan orogenic system is an excellent setting to approach this problem because it preserves one of the most dramatic records of long-term, contemporaneous shortening and extension. Over the past decades, several studies have described extensional features, not only in the Tibetan Plateau, but also in the Himalaya. For a long time, the favored model explained the function of the Southern Tibetan detachment system, a major fault zone in the Himalaya, as a decoupling horizon between the regime of crustal shortening forming the Himalayan wedge to the south and the extensional regime of the Tibetan Plateau to the north. However, in recent years, increasing evidence has shown that N-S-trending normal faults in the Central Himalaya crosscut not only the Southern Tibetan detachment system, but also the Main Central thrust. Here, we present new structural data and geologic evidence collected within the NW Indian Himalaya and combine them with previously published seismicity data sets in order to document pervasive E-W extension accommodated along N-S-trending faults extending as far south as the footwall of the Main Central thrust. We conducted a kinematic analysis of fault striations on brittle faults, documented and mapped fault scarps in Quaternary sedimentary deposits using satellite imagery, and made field observations in the Greater Sutlej region (Spiti, Lahul, Kinnaur) and the Garhwal Himalaya. Studies of extensional features within the regionally NW- SE-trending NW Indian Himalaya provide the advantage that arc-parallel and E-W extension can be separated, in contrast to the Central Himalaya. Therefore, our observations of E-W extension in the Indian NW Himalaya are well suited to test the applicability of current tectonic models for the whole Himalaya. We favor the interpretation of E-W extension in the NW Indian Himalaya as a propagation of extension driven by collapse of the Tibetan Plateau.
The seismically active Alborz mountains of northern Iran are an integral part of the Arabia-Eurasia collision. Linked strike-slip and thrust/reverse-fault systems in this mountain belt are characterized by slow loading rates, and large earthquakes are highly disparate in space and time. Similar to other intracontinental deformation zones such a pattern of tectonic activity is still insufficiently understood, because recurrence intervals between seismic events may be on the order of thousands of years, and are thus beyond the resolution of short term measurements based on GPS or instrumentally recorded seismicity. This study bridges the gap of deformation processes on different time scales. In particular, my investigation focuses on deformation on the Quaternary time scale, beyond present-day deformation rates, and it uses present-day and paleotectonic characteristics to model fault behavior. The study includes data based on structural and geomorphic mapping, faultkinematic analysis, DEM-based morphometry, and numerical fault-interaction modeling. In order to better understand the long- to short term behavior of such complex fault systems, I used geomorphic surfaces as strain markers and dated fluvial and alluvial surfaces using terrestrial cosmogenic nuclides (TCN, 10Be, 26Al, 36Cl) and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL). My investigation focuses on the seismically active Mosha-Fasham fault (MFF) and the seismically virtually inactive North Tehran Thrust (NTT), adjacent to the Tehran metropolitan area. Fault-kinematic data reveal an early mechanical linkage of the NTT and MFF during an earlier dextral transpressional stage, when the shortening direction was oriented northwest. This regime was superseded by Pliocene to Recent NE-oriented shortening, which caused thrusting and sinistral strike-slip faulting. In the course of this kinematic changeover, the NTT and MFF were reactivated and incorporated into a nascent transpressional duplex, which has significantly affected landscape evolution in this part of the range. Two of three distinctive features which characterize topography and relief in the study area can be directly related to their location inside the duplex array and are thus linked to interaction between eastern MFF and NTT, and between western MFF and Taleghan fault, respectively. To account for inferred inherited topography from the previous dextral-transpression regime, a new concept of tectonic landscape characterization has been used. Accordingly, I define simple landscapes as those environments, which have developed during the influence of a sustained tectonic regime. In contrast, composite landscapes contain topographic elements inherited from previous tectonic conditions that are inconsistent with the regional present-day stress field and kinematic style. Using numerical fault-interaction modeling with different tectonic boundary conditions, I calculated synoptic snapshots of artificial topography to compare it with the real topographic metrics. However, in the Alborz mountains, E-W faults are favorably oriented to accommodate the entire range of NW- to NE-directed compression. These faults show the highest total displacement which might indicate sustained faulting under changing boundary conditions. In contrast to the fault system within and at the flanks of the Alborz mountains, Quaternary deformation in the adjacent Tehran plain is characterized by oblique motion and thrust and strike-slip fault systems. In this morphotectonic province fault-propagation folding along major faults, limited strike-slip motion, and en-échelon arrays of second-order upper plate thrusts are typical. While the Tehran plain is characterized by young deformation phenomena, the majority of faulting took place in the early stages of the Quaternary and during late Pliocene time. TCN-dating, which was performed for the first time on geomorphic surfaces in the Tehran plain, revealed that the oldest two phases of alluviation (units A and B) must be older than late Pleistocene. While urban development in Tehran increasingly covers and obliterates the active fault traces, the present-day kinematic style, the vestiges of formerly undeformed Quaternary landforms, and paleo earthquake indicators from the last millennia attest to the threat that these faults and their related structures pose for the megacity.
Context. Helicity is a fundamental property of magnetic fields, conserved in ideal MHD. In flux rope geometry, it consists of twist and writhe helicity. Despite the common occurrence of helical structures in the solar atmosphere, little is known about how their shape relates to the writhe, which fraction of helicity is contained in writhe, and how much helicity is exchanged between twist and writhe when they erupt. Aims. Here we perform a quantitative investigation of these questions relevant for coronal flux ropes. Methods. The decomposition of the writhe of a curve into local and nonlocal components greatly facilitates its computation. We use it to study the relation between writhe and projected S shape of helical curves and to measure writhe and twist in numerical simulations of flux rope instabilities. The results are discussed with regard to filament eruptions and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Results. (1) We demonstrate that the relation between writhe and projected S shape is not unique in principle, but that the ambiguity does not affect low- lying structures, thus supporting the established empirical rule which associates stable forward (reverse) S shaped structures low in the corona with positive (negative) helicity. (2) Kink-unstable erupting flux ropes are found to transform a far smaller fraction of their twist helicity into writhe helicity than often assumed. (3) Confined flux rope eruptions tend to show stronger writhe at low heights than ejective eruptions (CMEs). This argues against suggestions that the writhing facilitates the rise of the rope through the overlying field. (4) Erupting filaments which are S shaped already before the eruption and keep the sign of their axis writhe (which is expected if field of one chirality dominates the source volume of the eruption), must reverse their S shape in the course of the rise. Implications for the occurrence of the helical kink instability in such events are discussed. (5) The writhe of rising loops can easily be estimated from the angle of rotation about the direction of ascent, once the apex height exceeds the footpoint separation significantly. Conclusions. Writhe can straightforwardly be computed for numerical data and can often be estimated from observations. It is useful in interpreting S shaped coronal structures and in constraining models of eruptions.
Testing magnetofrictional extrapolation with the Titov-Demoulin model of solar active regions
(2010)
We examine the nonlinear magnetofrictional extrapolation scheme using the solar active region model by Titov and Demoulin as test field. This model consists of an arched, line-tied current channel held in force-free equilibrium by the potential field of a bipolar flux distribution in the bottom boundary. A modified version with a parabolic current density profile is employed here. We find that the equilibrium is reconstructed with very high accuracy in a representative range of parameter space, using only the vector field in the bottom boundary as input. Structural features formed in the interface between the flux rope and the surrounding arcade - "hyperbolic flux tube" and "bald patch separatrix surface" - are reliably reproduced, as are the flux rope twist and the energy and helicity of the configuration. This demonstrates that force-free fields containing these basic structural elements of solar active regions can be obtained by extrapolation. The influence of the chosen initial condition on the accuracy of reconstruction is also addressed, confirming that the initial field that best matches the external potential field of the model quite naturally leads to the best reconstruction. Extrapolating the magnetogram of a Titov-Demoulin equilibrium in the unstable range of parameter space yields a sequence of two opposing evolutionary phases, which clearly indicate the unstable nature of the configuration: a partial buildup of the flux rope with rising free energy is followed by destruction of the rope, losing most of the free energy.
In the high mountains of Asia, glaciers cover an area of approximately 115,000 km² and constitute one of the largest continental ice accumulations outside Greenland and Antarctica. Their sensitivity to climate change makes them valuable palaeoclimate archives, but also vulnerable to current and predicted Global Warming. This is a pressing problem as snow and glacial melt waters are important sources for agriculture and power supply of densely populated regions in south, east, and central Asia. Successful prediction of the glacial response to climate change in Asia and mitigation of the socioeconomic impacts requires profound knowledge of the climatic controls and the dynamics of Asian glaciers. However, due to their remoteness and difficult accessibility, ground-based studies are rare, as well as temporally and spatially limited. We therefore lack basic information on the vast majority of these glaciers. In this thesis, I employ different methods to assess the dynamics of Asian glaciers on multiple time scales. First, I tested a method for precise satellite-based measurement of glacier-surface velocities and conducted a comprehensive and regional survey of glacial flow and terminus dynamics of Asian glaciers between 2000 and 2008. This novel and unprecedented dataset provides unique insights into the contrasting topographic and climatic controls of glacial flow velocities across the Asian highlands. The data document disparate recent glacial behavior between the Karakoram and the Himalaya, which I attribute to the competing influence of the mid-latitude westerlies during winter and the Indian monsoon during summer. Second, I tested whether such climate-related longitudinal differences in glacial behavior also prevail on longer time scales, and potentially account for observed regionally asynchronous glacial advances. I used cosmogenic nuclide surface exposure dating of erratic boulders on moraines to obtain a glacial chronology for the upper Tons Valley, situated in the headwaters of the Ganges River. This area is located in the transition zone from monsoonal to westerly moisture supply and therefore ideal to examine the influence of these two atmospheric circulation regimes on glacial advances. The new glacial chronology documents multiple glacial oscillations during the last glacial termination and during the Holocene, suggesting largely synchronous glacial changes in the western Himalayan region that are related to gradual glacial-interglacial temperature oscillations with superimposed monsoonal precipitation changes of higher frequency. In a third step, I combine results from short-term satellite-based climate records and surface velocity-derived ice-flux estimates, with topographic analyses to deduce the erosional impact of glaciations on long-term landscape evolution in the Himalayan-Tibetan realm. The results provide evidence for the long-term effects of pronounced east-west differences in glaciation and glacial erosion, depending on climatic and topographic factors. Contrary to common belief the data suggest that monsoonal climate in the central Himalaya weakens glacial erosion at high elevations, helping to maintain a steep southern orographic barrier that protects the Tibetan Plateau from lateral destruction. The results of this thesis highlight how climatic and topographic gradients across the high mountains of Asia affect glacier dynamics on time scales ranging from 10^0 to 10^6 years. Glacial response times to climate changes are tightly linked to properties such as debris cover and surface slope, which are controlled by the topographic setting, and which need to be taken into account when reconstructing mountainous palaeoclimate from glacial histories or assessing the future evolution of Asian glaciers. Conversely, the regional topographic differences of glacial landscapes in Asia are partly controlled by climatic gradients and the long-term influence of glaciers on the topographic evolution of the orogenic system.
Die Zuwanderung und der Integration von Zuwanderern aus den GUS-Staaten in Deutschland ist eine bedeutsame politische und rechtliche Thematik. Diese Thematik ist in Deutschland bisher noch wenig untersucht und nur in Teilbereichen bearbeitet. Deshalb untersucht das vorgestellte Werk folgende Fragen und Aspekte: Analyse der Zuwanderung aus den GUS-Staaten; Darstellung von Zuwanderungsgruppen aus den GUS-Staaten und ihres rechtlichen Status; die Wellen der Zuwanderung anhand der Zuwanderer aus den GUS-Staaten, einschließlich (Spät)Aussiedlern und jüdische Zuwanderern, tschetschenischen Asylsuchenden, Familienangehörige, Studierende, qualifizierte Arbeitskrafte usw., Analyse der Integrationsprogramme und Integrationsmaßnahmen für die Zuwanderer aus den GUS-Staaten; Darstellung der Integrationschancen und Integrationshemmnisse am Beispiel der Zuwanderer aus den GUS-Staaten, einschließlich das Recht auf Annerkennung der akademischen und beruflichen Qualifikation, das Recht auf Arbeit u.a., die russischen Rückkehr- und (Reintegrations-) Programme für die im Bundesgebiet lebenden Zuwanderer aus den GUS-Staaten – ihre Analyse und Bewertung. Eine weitere Besonderheit der Veröffentlichung besteht darin, dass die Autorin Ihre wissenschaftlichen Ausführungen zur rechtlichen Stellung der GUS-Zuwanderer und zu den Erfolgen bei ihrer Integration, aber auch zu den Integrationshemmnissen und Integrationsproblemen auf eine soziologische Befragung von Zuwanderern aus den GUS-Staaten in den Ländern Brandenburg und Berlin stützt. Die empirische Untersuchung bezieht sich auf den Zeitraum 1991 bis 2009.
Als Schnittstelle zwischen der Lokal- und der Staatsebene konnten die Landkreise ihre Stellung im politischen System Deutschlands bewahren und ausbauen. Optimierungsbedarf hat sich aufgrund des sozioökonomischen, technischen und demographischen Wandel sowie der öffentlichen Finanzkrise ergeben. Kreisgebietsreformmodelle und die Ausweitung der Aufgabenkooperation dominieren die Reformdebatte. Neben den verfassungsrechtlichen Anforderungen und der Akzeptanz der Reform bei den Betroffenen ist der Reformerfolg wesentlich von der Qualität der Umsetzungsstrategie abhängig. Der aktivierenden Einbeziehung der Mitarbeiter in den Reformprozess kommt dabei eine besondere Bedeutung zu.
Als Schnittstelle zwischen der Lokal- und der Staatsebene konnten die Landkreise ihre Stellung im politischen System Deutschlands bewahren und ausbauen. Optimierungsbedarf hat sich aufgrund des sozioökonomischen, technischen und demographischen Wandel sowie der öffentlichen Finanzkrise ergeben. Kreisgebietsreformmodelle und die Ausweitung der Aufgabenkooperation dominieren die Reformdebatte. Neben den verfassungsrechtlichen Anforderungen und der Akzeptanz der Reform bei den Betroffenen ist der Reformerfolg wesentlich von der Qualität der Umsetzungsstrategie abhängig. Der aktivierenden Einbeziehung der Mitarbeiter in den Reformprozess kommt dabei eine besondere Bedeutung zu.
Die These des Aufsatzes lautet, dass es sich bei Sebastian Brants „Narrenschiff“ um einen Text handelt, der entsprechend der Prinzipien verstanden werden kann, die Rudolf Agricola für das Sammeln von Argumenten formuliert hat. Das Gründungsdokument dieser humanistischen Methode, die unter dem Begriff der „loci communes“ Geschichte gemacht hat, ist ein Brief Agricolas aus dem Jahr 1484. Ein erster Teil des Aufsatzes stellt Agricolas Argumentationstheorie dar, ein zweiter Teil zeigt, dass Brants „Narrenschiff“ als Ergebnis dieser Argumentationstheorie verstanden werden kann.
'Gelegenheitsdichtung'
(2010)
Russian Jews who left the Former Soviet Union (FSU) and its Successor States after 1989 are considered as one of the best qualified migrants group worldwide. In the preferred countries of destination (Israel, the United States and Germany) they are well-known for cultural self-assertion, strong social upward mobility and manifold forms of self organisation and empowerment. Using Suzanne Kellers sociological model of “Strategic Elites”, it easily becomes clear that a huge share of the Russian Jewish Immigrants in Germany and Israel are part of various elites due to their qualification and high positions in the FSU – first of all professional, cultural and intellectual elites (“Intelligentsija”). The study aimed to find out to what extent developments of cultural self-assertion, of local and transnational networking and of ethno-cultural empowerment are supported or even initiated by the immigrated (Russian Jewish) Elites. The empirical basis for this study have been 35 half-structured expert interviews with Russian Jews in both countries (Israel, Germany) – most of them scholars, artists, writers, journalists/publicists, teachers, engineers, social workers, students and politicians. The qualitative analysis of the interview material in Israel and Germany revealed that there are a lot of commonalities but also significant differences. It was obvious that almost all of the interview partners remained to be linked with Russian speaking networks and communities, irrespective of their success (or failure) in integration into the host societies. Many of them showed self-confidence with regard to the groups’ amazing professional resources (70% of the adults with academic degree), and the cultural, professional and political potential of the FSU immigrants was usually considered as equal to those of the host population(s). Thus, the immigrants’ interest in direct societal participation and social acceptance was accordingly high. Assimilation was no option. For the Russian Jewish “sense of community” in Israel and Germany, Russian Language, Arts and general Russian culture have remained of key importance. The Immigrants do not feel an insuperable contradiction when feeling “Russian” in cultural terms, “Jewish” in ethnical terms and “Israeli” / “German” in national terms – in that a typical case of additive identity shaping what is also significant for the Elites of these Immigrants. Tendencies of ethno-cultural self organisation – which do not necessarily hinder impressing individual careers in the new surroundings – are more noticeable in Israel. Thus, a part of the Russian Jewish Elites has responded to social exclusion, discrimination or blocking by local population (and by local elites) with intense efforts to build (Russian Jewish) Associations, Media, Educational Institutions and even Political Parties. All in all, the results of this study do very much contradict popular stereotypes of the Russian Jewish Immigrant as a pragmatic, passive “Homo Sovieticus”. Among the Interview Partners in this study, civil-societal commitment was not the exception but rather the rule. Traditional activities of the early, legendary Russian „Intelligentsija“ were marked by smooth transitions from arts, education and societal/political commitment. There seem to be certain continuities of this self-demand in some of the Russian Jewish groups in Israel. Though, nothing comparable could be drawn from the Interviews with the Immigrants in Germany. Thus, the myth and self-demand of Russian “Intelligentsija” is irrelevant for collective discourses among Russian Jews in Germany.
Exploring the origin and fate of the Magellanic stream with ultraviolet and optical absorption
(2010)
We present an analysis of ionization and metal enrichment in the Magellanic Stream (MS), the nearest gaseous tidal stream, using Hubble Space Telescope/STIS and FUSE ultraviolet spectroscopy of two background active galactic nuclei. The targets are NGC 7469, lying directly behind the MS with log N(H I)(MS) = 18.63 +/- 0.03(stat) +/- 0.08(syst), and Mrk 335, lying 24 degrees.7 away with log N(H I)(MS) = 16.67 +/- 0.05. For NGC 7469, we include optical spectroscopy from VLT/UVES. In both sight lines, the MS is detected in low-ion (O I, C II, C III, Si II, Si III, Al II, Ca II) and high-ion (O VI, C IV, Si IV) absorption. Toward NGC 7469, we measure an MS oxygen abundance [O/H](MS) = [O I/ H I]= -1.00 +/- 0.05(stat) +/- 0.08(syst), supporting the view that the Stream originates in the Small Magellanic Cloud rather than the Large Magellanic Cloud. We use CLOUDY to model the low-ion phase of the Stream as a photoionized plasma using the observed Si III/Si II and C III/C II ratios. Toward Mrk 335, this yields an ionization parameter between log U= -3.45 and -3.15, a gas density log (n(H)/cm(-3)) between-2.51 and -2.21, and a hydrogen ionization fraction of 98.9%- 99.5%. Toward NGC 7469, we derive sub-solar abundance ratios for [Si/O], [Fe/O], and [Al/O], indicating the presence of dust in the MS. The high-ion column densities are too large to be explained by photoionization, but also cannot be explained by a single-temperature collisional ionization model (equilibrium or non-equilibrium). This suggests that the high-ion plasma is multi-phase, with an Si IV region, a hotter O VI region, and C IV potentially contributing to each. Summing over the low-ion and high-ion phases, we derive conservative lower limits on the ratio N(total H II)/N(H I) of greater than or similar to 19 toward NGC 7469 and greater than or similar to 330 toward Mrk 335, showing that along these two directions the vast majority of the Stream has been ionized. The presence of warm-hot plasma together with the small-scale structure observed at 21 cm provides evidence for an evaporative interaction with the hot Galactic corona. This scenario, predicted by hydrodynamical simulations, suggests that the fate of the MS will be to replenish the Galactic corona with new plasma, rather than to bring neutral fuel to the disk.
The statistical distribution of energies among particles responsible for long gamma-ray burst (GRB) emission is analyzed in light of recent results of the Fermi Observatory. The all-sky flux, F., recorded by the Gamma-Ray Burst Monitor (GBM) is shown, despite its larger energy range, to be not significantly larger than that reported by the Burst and Transient Explorer, suggesting a relatively small flux in the 3-30MeV energy range. The present-day energy input rate in gamma-rays recorded by the GBM from long GRBs is found, assuming star formation rates in the literature, to be W(0) = 0.5F gamma H/c = 5x10(42) erg Mpc(-3) yr(-1). The Large Area Telescope fluence, when observed, is about 5%-10% per decade of the total, in good agreement with the predictions of saturated, nonlinear shock acceleration. The high- energy component of long GRBs, as measured by Fermi, is found to contain only similar to 10-2.5 of the energy needed to produce ultrahigh-energy cosmic rays (UHECRs) above 4 EeV, assuming the latter to be extragalactic, when various numerical factors are carefully included, if the cosmic-ray source spectrum has a spectral index of -2. The observed. - ray fraction of the required UHECR energy is even smaller if the source spectrum is softer than E-2. The AMANDA II limits rule out such a GRB origin for UHECRs if much more than 10(-2) of the cosmic-ray energy goes into neutrinos that are within, and simultaneous with, the gamma-ray beam. It is suggested that "orphan" neutrinos out of the gamma-ray beam might be identifiable via orphan afterglow or other wide angle signatures of GRBs in lieu of coincidence with prompt gamma-rays, and it is recommended that feasible single neutrino trigger criteria be established to search for such coincidences.
The depositional geometry and facies distribution of an Early Miocene (Burdigalian) carbonate system in the Perfugas Basin (NW Sardinia) comprise a well-exposed example of a transition from a ramp to a steep-flanked platform. The carbonate succession (Sedini Limestone Unit) is composed of two depositional sequences separated by a major erosional unconformity. The lower (sequence 1) records a ramp dominated by heterozoan producers and the upper (sequence 2) is dominated by photozoan producers and displays a gradual steepening of the depositional profile into a steep- flanked platform. This paper shows the process of creating a digital outcrop model including a facies model. This process consists of combining field data sets, including 17 sedimentary logs, and a spatial dataset consisting of differential global positioning system data points measured along key stratigraphic surfaces and sedimentary logs, with the goal of locking traditional field observations into a 3D spatial model. Establishing a precise geometrical framework and visualizing the overall change in the platform geometry and the related vertical and lateral facies variations of the Sedini carbonate platform, allows us to better understand the sedimentary processes leading to the geometrical turn- over of the platform. Furthermore, a detailed facies modeling helps us to gain insight into the detailed depositional dynamics. The final model reproduces faithfully the depositional geometries observed in the outcrops and helps in understanding the relationships between facies and architectural framework at the basin scale. Moreover, it provides the basis to characterize semiquantitatively regional sedimentological features and to make further reservoir and subsurface analogue studies.
This study models maximum temperatures in Switzerland monitored in twelve locations using the generalised extreme value (GEV) distribution. The parameters of the GEV distribution are determined within a Bayesian framework. We find that the parameters of the underlying distribution underwent a substantial change in the beginning of the 1980s. This change is characterised by an increase both in the level and the variability. We assess the likelihood of the heat wave of the summer 2003 using the fitted GEV distribution by accounting for the presence of a structural break. The estimation results do suggest that the heat wave of 2003 is not that statistically improbable if an appropriate methodology is used for dealing with nonstationarity.