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Over the past decades, natural hazards, many of which are aggravated by climate change and reveal an increasing trend in frequency and intensity, have caused significant human and economic losses and pose a considerable obstacle to sustainable development. Hence, dedicated action toward disaster risk reduction is needed to understand the underlying drivers and create efficient risk mitigation plans. Such action is requested by the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 (SFDRR), a global agreement launched in 2015 that establishes stating priorities for action, e.g. an improved understanding of disaster risk. Turkey is one of the SFDRR contracting countries and has been severely affected by many natural hazards, in particular earthquakes and floods. However, disproportionately little is known about flood hazards and risks in Turkey. Therefore, this thesis aims to carry out a comprehensive analysis of flood hazards for the first time in Turkey from triggering drivers to impacts. It is intended to contribute to a better understanding of flood risks, improvements of flood risk mitigation and the facilitated monitoring of progress and achievements while implementing the SFDRR.
In order to investigate the occurrence and severity of flooding in comparison to other natural hazards in Turkey and provide an overview of the temporal and spatial distribution of flood losses, the Turkey Disaster Database (TABB) was examined for the years 1960-2014. The TABB database was reviewed through comparison with the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT), the Dartmouth Flood Observatory database, the scientific literature and news archives. In addition, data on the most severe flood events between 1960 and 2014 were retrieved. These served as a basis for analyzing triggering mechanisms (i.e. atmospheric circulation and precipitation amounts) and aggravating pathways (i.e. topographic features, catchment size, land use types and soil properties). For this, a new approach was developed and the events were classified using hierarchical cluster analyses to identify the main influencing factor per event and provide additional information about the dominant flood pathways for severe floods. The main idea of the study was to start with the event impacts based on a bottom-up approach and identify the causes that created damaging events, instead of applying a model chain with long-term series as input and searching for potentially impacting events as model outcomes. However, within the frequency analysis of the flood-triggering circulation pattern types, it was discovered that events in terms of heavy precipitation were not included in the list of most severe floods, i.e. their impacts were not recorded in national and international loss databases but were mentioned in news archives and reported by the Turkish State Meteorological Service. This finding challenges bottom-up modelling approaches and underlines the urgent need for consistent event and loss documentation. Therefore, as a next step, the aim was to enhance the flood loss documentation by calibrating, validating and applying the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) loss estimation method for the recent severe flood events (2015-2020). This provided, a consistent flood loss estimation model for Turkey, allowing governments to estimate losses as quickly as possible after events, e.g. to better coordinate financial aid.
This thesis reveals that, after earthquakes, floods have the second most destructive effects in Turkey in terms of human and economic impacts, with over 800 fatalities and US$ 885.7 million in economic losses between 1960 and 2020, and that more attention should be paid on the national scale. The clustering results of the dominant flood-producing mechanisms (e.g. circulation pattern types, extreme rainfall, sudden snowmelt) present crucial information regarding the source and pathway identification, which can be used as base information for hazard identification in the preliminary risk assessment process. The implementation of the UNDRR loss estimation model shows that the model with country-specific parameters, calibrated damage ratios and sufficient event documentation (i.e. physically damaged units) can be recommended in order to provide first estimates of the magnitude of direct economic losses, even shortly after events have occurred, since it performed well when estimates were compared to documented losses.
The presented results can contribute to improving the national disaster loss database in Turkey and thus enable a better monitoring of the national progress and achievements with regard to the targets stated by the SFDRR. In addition, the outcomes can be used to better characterize and classify flood events. Information on the main underlying factors and aggravating flood pathways further supports the selection of suitable risk reduction policies.
All input variables used in this thesis were obtained from publicly available data. The results are openly accessible and can be used for further research.
As an overall conclusion, it can be stated that consistent loss data collection and better event documentation should gain more attention for a reliable monitoring of the implementation of the SFDRR. Better event documentation should be established according to a globally accepted standard for disaster classification and loss estimation in Turkey. Ultimately, this enables stakeholders to create better risk mitigation actions based on clear hazard definitions, flood event classification and consistent loss estimations.
The most severe flood events in Turkey were determined for the period 1960-2014 by considering the number of fatalities, the number of affected people, and the total economic losses as indicators. The potential triggering mechanisms (i.e., atmospheric circulations and precipitation amounts) and aggravating pathways (i.e., topographic features, catchment size, land use types, and soil properties) of these 25 events were analyzed. On this basis, a new approach was developed to identify the main influencing factor per event and to provide additional information for determining the dominant flood occurrence pathways for severe floods. The events were then classified through hierarchical cluster analysis. As a result, six different clusters were found and characterized. Cluster 1 comprised flood events that were mainly influenced by drainage characteristics (e.g., catchment size and shape); Cluster 2 comprised events aggravated predominantly by urbanization; steep topography was identified to be the dominant factor for Cluster 3; extreme rainfall was determined as the main triggering factor for Cluster 4; saturated soil conditions were found to be the dominant factor for Cluster 5; and orographic effects of mountain ranges characterized Cluster 6. This study determined pathway patterns of the severe floods in Turkey with regard to their main causal or aggravating mechanisms. Accordingly, geomorphological properties are of major importance in large catchments in eastern and northeastern Anatolia. In addition, in small catchments, the share of urbanized area seems to be an important factor for the extent of flood impacts. This paper presents an outcome that could be used for future urban planning and flood risk prevention studies to understand the flood mechanisms in different regions of Turkey.
The most severe flood events in Turkey were determined for the period 1960–2014 by considering the number of fatalities, the number of affected people, and the total economic losses as indicators. The potential triggering mechanisms (i.e., atmospheric circulations and precipitation amounts) and aggravating pathways (i.e., topographic features, catchment size, land use types, and soil properties) of these 25 events were analyzed. On this basis, a new approach was developed to identify the main influencing factor per event and to provide additional information for determining the dominant flood occurrence pathways for severe floods. The events were then classified through hierarchical cluster analysis. As a result, six different clusters were found and characterized. Cluster 1 comprised flood events that were mainly influenced by drainage characteristics (e.g., catchment size and shape); Cluster 2 comprised events aggravated predominantly by urbanization; steep topography was identified to be the dominant factor for Cluster 3; extreme rainfall was determined as the main triggering factor for Cluster 4; saturated soil conditions were found to be the dominant factor for Cluster 5; and orographic effects of mountain ranges characterized Cluster 6. This study determined pathway patterns of the severe floods in Turkey with regard to their main causal or aggravating mechanisms. Accordingly, geomorphological properties are of major importance in large catchments in eastern and northeastern Anatolia. In addition, in small catchments, the share of urbanized area seems to be an important factor for the extent of flood impacts. This paper presents an outcome that could be used for future urban planning and flood risk prevention studies to understand the flood mechanisms in different regions of Turkey.
The most severe flood events in Turkey were determined for the period 1960–2014 by considering the number of fatalities, the number of affected people, and the total economic losses as indicators. The potential triggering mechanisms (i.e., atmospheric circulations and precipitation amounts) and aggravating pathways (i.e., topographic features, catchment size, land use types, and soil properties) of these 25 events were analyzed. On this basis, a new approach was developed to identify the main influencing factor per event and to provide additional information for determining the dominant flood occurrence pathways for severe floods. The events were then classified through hierarchical cluster analysis. As a result, six different clusters were found and characterized. Cluster 1 comprised flood events that were mainly influenced by drainage characteristics (e.g., catchment size and shape); Cluster 2 comprised events aggravated predominantly by urbanization; steep topography was identified to be the dominant factor for Cluster 3; extreme rainfall was determined as the main triggering factor for Cluster 4; saturated soil conditions were found to be the dominant factor for Cluster 5; and orographic effects of mountain ranges characterized Cluster 6. This study determined pathway patterns of the severe floods in Turkey with regard to their main causal or aggravating mechanisms. Accordingly, geomorphological properties are of major importance in large catchments in eastern and northeastern Anatolia. In addition, in small catchments, the share of urbanized area seems to be an important factor for the extent of flood impacts. This paper presents an outcome that could be used for future urban planning and flood risk prevention studies to understand the flood mechanisms in different regions of Turkey.
Antisemitism in muslim communities and muslim countries: debates and studies of a complex issue
(2015)
In this article, I discuss surveys, academic debates, and research on antisemitism among Muslims in Muslim-majority countries and in Europe today. After a review of antisemitism in both cases, different explanations for its causes are presented. Negative attitudes towards Jews in Muslim countries are the rule, not the exception. An important factor in almost all Muslim countries are anti-Zionist attitudes and agitations that are mixed with antisemitic stereotypes and conspiracy theories. In Europe, antisemitism is more prevalent among Muslims than among non-Muslims and Muslims are disproportionately often involved in antisemitic incidents.
It turns out that antisemitism among Muslims is manifested in many ways and that it has many causes. One-dimensional explanations are not sufficient. Arguments that antisemitism is primarily a result of the Middle East conflict or of discrimination/colonization seem to be outdated in view of new research. Historically, the interaction of Arab nationalism, Islamist movements, and the collaboration with the Nazis in the middle of the 20th century played a significant role in ensuring that the discriminatory treatment of Jews in Islam in the Middle Ages did not disappear in the course of establishing nation states, but was converted to a large extent into antisemitism. Today, Islamist influences and stereotypes that are passed on by media and within social circles are essential factors for the prevalence of antisemitic attitudes among Muslims.
Magmatism forming the Central Anatolian Volcanic Province of Cappadocia, central Turkey, records the last phase of Neotethyan subduction after similar to 11 Ma. Thirteen large calc-alkaline ignimbrite sheets form marker bands within the volcano-sedimentary succession (the Urgup Formation) and provide a robust chronostratigraphy for paleoecologic evaluation of the interleaved paleosols. This paper evaluates the chronologic record in the context of the radiometric, magnetostratigraphic and lithostratigraphic controls. Previous inconsistencies relating primarily to K/Ar evidence were reason for the initiation of an integrated study which includes Ar-40/Ar-39 dating, palaeomagnetic and stratigraphic evidence. The newly determined Ar-40/Ar-39-ages (Lepetit, 2010) are in agreement with Ar/Ar and U/Pb data meanwhile published by Pauquette and Le Pennec (2012) and Aydar et al. (2012). The Ar-40/Ar-39-ages restrict the end of the Urgup Formation to the late Miocene. The paleosol sequence enclosed by the ignimbrites is thus restricted to the late Miocene, the most intense formation of pedogene calcretes correlating with the Messinian Salinity Crisis.
The present study investigated the attribution of responsibility to victims and perpetrators in rape compared to robbery cases in Turkey. Each participant read three short case scenarios (vignettes) and completed items pertaining to the female victim and male perpetrator. The vignettes were systematically varied with regard to the type of crime that was committed (rape or robbery), the perpetrator’s coercive strategy (physical force or exploiting the victim’s alcohol-induced defenselessness), and the victim-perpetrator relationship prior to the incident (stranger, acquaintance, or ex-partner). Furthermore, participant gender and acceptance of rape myths (beliefs that justify or trivialize sexual violence) were taken into account. One half of the participants completed the rape myth acceptance (RMA) scales first and then received the vignettes, while the other half were given the vignettes first and then completed the RMA scales.
As expected, more blame was attributed to victims of rape than to victims of robbery. Conversely, perpetrators of rape were blamed less than perpetrators of robbery. The more participants endorsed rape myths, the more blame was attributed to the victim and the less blame was attributed to the perpetrators. Increasing levels of RMA were associated with an increase in victim blame (VB) in both rape and robbery cases, but the increase in rape VB was significantly more pronounced than in robbery VB. Increasing RMA was associated with an attenuation of perpetrator blame (PB) that was more pronounced for rape than for robbery cases, but the difference was not significant. As expected, victims of rape were blamed more when the perpetrator exploited their defenselessness due to alcohol intoxication than when they were overpowered by physical force. Contrary to the hypothesis, this was also true for robbery victims. Rape victims who knew their attacker (ex-partner or acquaintance) were blamed more than victims who were assaulted by strangers. Contrary to the hypothesis, robbery victims who were assaulted by an ex-partner were blamed more than acquaintance or stranger robbery victims. As predicted, the closer the relationship between victim and perpetrator, the less blame was attributed to perpetrators of rape while this factor had no effect on PB in robbery cases.
Men compared to women attributed more blame to the victims and less blame to the perpetrators. As expected, these gender differences in blame attributions were partially mediated by gender differences in RMA: After RMA was taken into account, the gender differences disappeared nearly completely for VB and were significantly reduced in PB. The order of presentation of the vignettes and the RMA measures was systematically varied to test the causal influence of RMA on rape blame attributions. The hypothesis that RMA causes VB and PB in rape cases (as opposed to the other way around or both are caused by a third variable) was not supported. Possible reasons for this failed manipulation and its implications for the mediation model are discussed.
With regard to blame attribution in rape cases, the present results match what was expected from previous studies which were mainly conducted in “Western” countries like the United States, the United Kingdom, or Germany. The present results support the notion that the victim-perpetrator relationship and the victim’s alcohol consumption are cross-culturally stable factors for blame attribution in rape cases. It was expected that blame attribution in robbery cases would be unaffected by the perpetrator’s coercive strategy and the victim-perpetrator relationship, but the results were inconsistent.
One unexpected effect is particularly noteworthy: When the perpetrator used physical force, more blame was attributed to rape than to robbery victims, but intoxicated victims were blamed more and almost equally so for both types of crime. Perpetrators who exploited drunk victims were blamed less in both rape and robbery cases. These results contradict German results collected with the German version of the same instruments (Bieneck & Krahé, 2011). Turkey is a Muslim country and alcohol is surrounded by a certain taboo. Possibly, the results reflect a cultural difference in that intoxicated victims are generally blamed more for their victimization and this factor is not limited to rape cases.
Die vorliegende Arbeit untersucht die Politik der Zentralbankunabhängigkeit (ZBU) am Beispiel der Türkei. Im Mittelpunkt der Arbeit stehen theoretische und empirische Fragen und Probleme, die sich im Zusammenhang mit der ZBU stellen und anhand der türkischen Geldpolitik diskutiert werden. Ein zentrales Ziel der Arbeit besteht darin, zu untersuchen, ob und inwiefern die türkische Zentralbank nach Erlangung der de jure institutionellen Unabhängigkeit tatsächlich als unabhängig und entpolitisiert eingestuft werden kann. Um diese Forschungsfrage zu beantworten, werden die institutionellen Bedingungen, die Ziele und die Regeln, nach denen sich die türkische Geldpolitik richtet, geklärt. Anschließend wird empirisch überprüft, ob die geldpolitische Praxis der CBRT sich an dem offiziell vorgegebenen Regelwerk orientiert. Die Hauptthese dieser Arbeit lautet, dass die formelle Unabhängigkeit der CBRT und die regelorientierte Geldpolitik nicht mit einer Entpolitisierung der Geldpolitik in der Türkei gleichzusetzen ist. Als Alternative schlägt die vorliegende Studie vor, den institutionellen Status der CBRT als einen der relativen Autonomie zu untersuchen. Auch eine de jure unabhängige Zentralbank kann sich nicht von politischen Eingriffen abkoppeln, wie das Fallbeispiel Türkei zeigen wird.
Afyon Zone, which was derived from the Anatolide-Tauride platform during closure of the Neo-Tethys, is made up of pre-Mesozoic basement and unconformably overlying Triassic-Early Tertiary cover series. The Afyon Zone contains widespread metavolcanic rocks, which are dominated by rhyolite, dacite, and trachyandesite. They form a distinct volcanic succession, which is separated from the underlying Silurian-Lower Carboniferous metacarbonates and meta-siliciclastics by a regional unconformity. Trachyandesitic metavolcanics are made up of massive lava flows, pyroclastics and epiclastics, less frequently, domes and dikes, which were developed on a deeply eroded subaerial landmass. U/Pb and Pb/Pb zircon geochronology yielded Lower Triassic (similar to 250 Ma) ages, which are interpreted as extrusion age of trachyandesitic volcanics. Based on the stratigraphic, geochronological, and geochemical data, we suggest that these Lower Triassic magmatic rocks represent an extensional tectonic setting on the northern active margin of the Gondwana, which led to the development of the northern branch of the Neo-Tethys.
Over the past decades, floods have caused significant financial losses in Turkey, amounting to US$ 800 million between 1960 and 2014. With the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 (SFDRR), it is aimed to reduce the direct economic loss from disasters in relation to the global gross domestic product (GDP) by 2030. Accordingly, a methodology based on experiences from developing countries was proposed by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) to estimate direct economic losses on the macro-scale. Since Turkey also signed the SFDRR, we aimed to adapt, validate and apply the loss estimation model proposed by the UNDRR in Turkey for the first time. To do so, the well-documented flood event in Mersin of 2016 was used to calibrate the damage ratios for the agricultural, commercial and residential sectors, as well as educational facilities. Case studies between 2015 and 2020 with documented losses were further used to validate the model. Finally, model applications provided initial loss estimates for floods occurred recently in Turkey. Despite the limited event documentation for each sector, the calibrated model yielded good results when compared to documented losses. Thus, by implementing the UNDRR method, this study provides an approach to estimate the direct economic losses in Turkey on the macro-scale, which can be used to fill gaps in event databases, support the coordination of financial aid after flood events and facilitate monitoring of the progress toward and achievement of Global Target C of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030.