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Institute
- Institut für Biochemie und Biologie (22)
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This thesis is focussed on the electronic properties of the new material class named topological insulators. Spin and angle resolved photoelectron spectroscopy have been applied to reveal several unique properties of the surface state of these materials. The first part of this thesis introduces the methodical background of these quite established experimental techniques.
In the following chapter, the theoretical concept of topological insulators is introduced. Starting from the prominent example of the quantum Hall effect, the application of topological invariants to classify material systems is illuminated. It is explained how, in presence of time reversal symmetry, which is broken in the quantum Hall phase, strong spin orbit coupling can drive a system into a topologically non trivial phase. The prediction of the spin quantum Hall effect in two dimensional insulators an the generalization to the three dimensional case of topological insulators is reviewed together with the first experimental realization of a three dimensional topological insulator in the Bi1-xSbx alloys given in the literature.
The experimental part starts with the introduction of the Bi2X3 (X=Se, Te) family of materials. Recent theoretical predictions and experimental findings on the bulk and surface electronic structure of these materials are introduced in close discussion to our own experimental results. Furthermore, it is revealed, that the topological surface state of Bi2Te3 shares its orbital symmetry with the bulk valence band and the observation of a temperature induced shift of the chemical potential is to a high probability unmasked as a doping effect due to residual gas adsorption.
The surface state of Bi2Te3 is found to be highly spin polarized with a polarization value of about 70% in a macroscopic area, while in Bi2Se3 the polarization appears reduced, not exceeding 50%. We, however, argue that the polarization is most likely only extrinsically limited in terms of the finite angular resolution and the lacking detectability of the out of plane component of the electron spin. A further argument is based on the reduced surface quality of the single crystals after cleavage and, for Bi2Se3 a sensitivity of the electronic structure to photon exposure.
We probe the robustness of the topological surface state in Bi2X3 against surface impurities in Chapter 5. This robustness is provided through the protection by the time reversal symmetry. Silver, deposited on the (111) surface of Bi2Se3 leads to a strong electron doping but the surface state is observed up to a deposited Ag mass equivalent to one atomic monolayer. The opposite sign of doping, i.e., hole-like, is observed by exposing oxygen to Bi2Te3. But while the n-type shift of Ag on Bi2Se3 appears to be more or less rigid, O2 is lifting the Dirac point of the topological surface state in Bi2Te3 out of the valence band minimum at $\Gamma$. After increasing the oxygen dose further, it is possible to shift the Dirac point to the Fermi level, while the valence band stays well beyond. The effect is found reversible, by warming up the samples which is interpreted in terms of physisorption of O2.
For magnetic impurities, i.e., Fe, we find a similar behavior as for the case of Ag in both Bi2Se3 and Bi2Te3. However, in that case the robustness is unexpected, since magnetic impurities are capable to break time reversal symmetry which should introduce a gap in the surface state at the Dirac point which in turn removes the protection. We argue, that the fact that the surface state shows no gap must be attributed to a missing magnetization of the Fe overlayer. In Bi2Te3 we are able to observe the surface state for deposited iron mass equivalents in the monolayer regime. Furthermore, we gain control over the sign of doping through the sample temperature during deposition.
Chapter6 is devoted to the lifetime broadening of the photoemission signal from the topological surface states of Bi2Se3 and Bi2Te3. It is revealed that the hexagonal warping of the surface state in Bi2Te3 introduces an anisotropy for electrons traveling along the two distinct high symmetry directions of the surface Brillouin zone, i.e., $\Gamma$K and $\Gamma$M. We show that the phonon coupling strength to the surface electrons in Bi2Te3 is in nice agreement with the theoretical prediction but, nevertheless, higher than one may expect. We argue that the electron-phonon coupling is one of the main contributions to the decay of photoholes but the relatively small size of the Fermi surface limits the number of phonon modes that may scatter off electrons. This effect is manifested in the energy dependence of the imaginary part of the electron self energy of the surface state which shows a decay to higher binding energies in contrast to the monotonic increase proportional to E$^2$ in the Fermi liquid theory due to electron-electron interaction.
Furthermore, the effect of the surface impurities of Chapter 5 on the quasiparticle life- times is investigated. We find that Fe impurities have a much stronger influence on the lifetimes as compared to Ag. Moreover, we find that the influence is stronger independently of the sign of the doping. We argue that this observation suggests a minor contribution of the warping on increased scattering rates in contrast to current belief. This is additionally confirmed by the observation that the scattering rates increase further with increasing silver amount while the doping stays constant and by the fact that clean Bi2Se3 and Bi2Te3 show very similar scattering rates regardless of the much stronger warping in Bi2Te3.
In the last chapter we report on a strong circular dichroism in the angle distribution of the photoemission signal of the surface state of Bi2Te3. We show that the color pattern obtained by calculating the difference between photoemission intensities measured with opposite photon helicity reflects the pattern expected for the spin polarization. However, we find a strong influence on strength and even sign of the effect when varying the photon energy. The sign change is qualitatively confirmed by means of one-step photoemission calculations conducted by our collaborators from the LMU München, while the calculated spin polarization is found to be independent of the excitation energy. Experiment and theory together unambiguously uncover the dichroism in these systems as a final state effect and the question in the title of the chapter has to be negated: Circular dichroism in the angle distribution is not a new spin sensitive technique.
Bad governance causes economic, social, developmental and environmental problems in many developing countries. Developing countries have adopted a number of reforms that have assisted in achieving good governance. The success of governance reform depends on the starting point of each country – what institutional arrangements exist at the out-set and who the people implementing reforms within the existing institutional framework are. This dissertation focuses on how formal institutions (laws and regulations) and informal institutions (culture, habit and conception) impact on good governance. Three characteristics central to good governance - transparency, participation and accountability are studied in the research.
A number of key findings were: Good governance in Hanoi and Berlin represent the two extremes of the scale, while governance in Berlin is almost at the top of the scale, governance in Hanoi is at the bottom. Good governance in Hanoi is still far from achieved. In Berlin, information about public policies, administrative services and public finance is available, reliable and understandable. People do not encounter any problems accessing public information. In Hanoi, however, public information is not easy to access. There are big differences between Hanoi and Berlin in the three forms of participation. While voting in Hanoi to elect local deputies is formal and forced, elections in Berlin are fair and free. The candidates in local elections in Berlin come from different parties, whereas the candidacy of local deputies in Hanoi is thoroughly controlled by the Fatherland Front. Even though the turnout of voters in local deputy elections is close to 90 percent in Hanoi, the legitimacy of both the elections and the process of representation is non-existent because the local deputy candidates are decided by the Communist Party.
The involvement of people in solving local problems is encouraged by the government in Berlin. The different initiatives include citizenry budget, citizen activity, citizen initiatives, etc. Individual citizens are free to participate either individually or through an association.
Lacking transparency and participation, the quality of public service in Hanoi is poor. Citizens seldom get their services on time as required by the regulations. Citizens who want to receive public services can bribe officials directly, use the power of relationships, or pay a third person – the mediator ("Cò" - in Vietnamese).
In contrast, public service delivery in Berlin follows the customer-orientated principle. The quality of service is high in relation to time and cost. Paying speed money, bribery and using relationships to gain preferential public service do not exist in Berlin.
Using the examples of Berlin and Hanoi, it is clear to see how transparency, participation and accountability are interconnected and influence each other. Without a free and fair election as well as participation of non-governmental organisations, civil organisations, and the media in political decision-making and public actions, it is hard to hold the Hanoi local government accountable.
The key differences in formal institutions (regulative and cognitive) between Berlin and Hanoi reflect the three main principles: rule of law vs. rule by law, pluralism vs. monopoly Party in politics and social market economy vs. market economy with socialist orientation.
In Berlin the logic of appropriateness and codes of conduct are respect for laws, respect of individual freedom and ideas and awareness of community development. People in Berlin take for granted that public services are delivered to them fairly. Ideas such as using money or relationships to shorten public administrative procedures do not exist in the mind of either public officials or citizens.
In Hanoi, under a weak formal framework of good governance, new values and norms (prosperity, achievement) generated in the economic transition interact with the habits of the centrally-planned economy (lying, dependence, passivity) and traditional values (hierarchy, harmony, family, collectivism) influence behaviours of those involved.
In Hanoi “doing the right thing” such as compliance with law doesn’t become “the way it is”.
The unintended consequence of the deliberate reform actions of the Party is the prevalence of corruption. The socialist orientation seems not to have been achieved as the gap between the rich and the poor has widened.
Good governance is not achievable if citizens and officials are concerned only with their self-interest. State and society depend on each other. Theoretically to achieve good governance in Hanoi, institutions (formal and informal) able to create good citizens, officials and deputies should be generated. Good citizens are good by habit rather than by nature.
The rule of law principle is necessary for the professional performance of local administrations and People’s Councils. When the rule of law is applied consistently, the room for informal institutions to function will be reduced.
Promoting good governance in Hanoi is dependent on the need and desire to change the government and people themselves. Good governance in Berlin can be seen to be the result of the efforts of the local government and citizens after a long period of development and continuous adjustment.
Institutional transformation is always a long and complicated process because the change in formal regulations as well as in the way they are implemented may meet strong resistance from the established practice. This study has attempted to point out the weaknesses of the institutions of Hanoi and has identified factors affecting future development towards good governance. But it is not easy to determine how long it will take to change the institutional setting of Hanoi in order to achieve good governance.
Üblicherweise vermeiden deutsche Parteien Kampfkandidaturen um den Vorsitz. Dennoch kam es auf dem Mannheimer SPD-Parteitag 1995 zu einer unerwarteten offenen Konkurrenz um das Spitzenamt. Das unbeabsichtigte Scheitern der Inszenierung der „Geschlossenheit“ der Partei führte zum Ausbruch der bis dahin unterdrückten Kämpfe um den Parteivorsitz. Der Mannheimer Parteitag steht exemplarisch für den Zusammenhang zwischen Inszenierung, Disziplin und den informellen Regeln innerparteilicher Machtkonstruktion. Am Beispiel dieses Parteitages zeigt die vorliegende Arbeit, wie umstrittenen Parteivorsitzenden sich gegen Widerstände im Amt behaupten können bzw. woran diese Strategie scheitern kann. Aus figurationstheoretischer Perspektive wird die Inszenierung als Notwendigkeit medienvermittelter Parteienkonkurrenz um Wählerstimmen gefasst. Inszenierung erfordert Selbstdisziplin und das koordinierte Handeln der Parteimitglieder. Innerparteilich wird so wechselseitige Abhängigkeit erzeugt. Diese wird gesteigert durch die Medien-Konzentration auf wenige Spitzenpolitiker. Die Mehrheit der Mandatsträger und Funktionäre ist angewiesen auf das medienwirksame Auftreten der Führung. Für den Medienerfolg braucht die Führung ihrerseits die Unterstützung der Mitglieder. Diese wechselseitige Abhängigkeit erzeugt sowohl typische Relevanzen als auch Möglichkeiten, die jeweils andere Interessengruppe unter Zugzwang zu setzen. Imageprobleme des Vorsitzenden sind als verletzte Erwartungen Anlass für innerparteiliche Machtkämpfe, in denen die Parteiführung insbesondere die Inszenierung der „Geschlossenheit“ nutzen kann, um offene Personaldiskussionen zu verhindern. Da Handlungsoptionen und -grenzen durch das Handeln der Akteure immer wieder neu geschaffen werden, besteht stets das Risiko des Scheiterns innerparteilicher Disziplinierung. Mit dem Nachvollzug von Disziplinierung und den Gründen ihrer Kontingenz versteht sich die vorliegende Arbeit als Beitrag zu einer Theorie informeller Machtregeln in Organisationen mit schwach ausgeprägten Herrschaftsstrukturen. Im ersten Teil der Arbeit wird der Zusammenhang zwischen Inszenierung und Macht durch die Konzepte Theatralität und Figuration entwickelt. Im zweiten Teil werden typische Konstellationen der gegenwärtigen parlamentarischen Demokratie auf typische beziehungsvermittelte Situationsdeutungen, Handlungsmöglichkeiten und -grenzen untersucht. Im dritten Teil wird der kontingente Prozess des innerparteilichen Machtkampfes am Beispiel des Mannheimer Parteitages 1995 nachvollzogen.
„Alle Kinder müssen zu wertvollen Menschen erzogen werden“, forderte Margot Honecker, Erziehungsminister der DDR von 1963 bis 1989. Während liberale Jugendsoziologen die Jugendphase als Moratorium begreifen und damit Heranwachsenden Freiräume zubilligen, geltende soziale Normen infrage zu stellen und selbstbestimmte Lebensentwürfe zu erproben, ohne ihr Handeln in gleicher Weise verantworten zu müssen wie Erwachsene, wurden Jugendliche in der DDR danach beurteilt, inwieweit sie dem Ideal der „allseitig gebildeten sozialistischen Persönlichkeit“ entsprachen. Nach Honeckers Ansicht wäre die freie Entfaltung des Individuums erst im Kommunismus möglich. Individuelle Entfaltung besaß für sie keinen eigenen Wert. Der politische Erziehungsanspruch erstreckte sich grundsätzlich auf alle Lebenswelten von Jugendlichen. Freiräume zur Selbstentfaltung waren in der DDR sowohl materiell als auch ideell eng umgrenzt, ein Umstand den der bundesdeutsche Bildungssoziologe Jürgen Zinnecker als „Jugendmoratorium in kasernierter Form“ bezeichnete. Dem politischen Anpassungsdruck waren Kinder und Jugendliche in besonders starkem Maße ausgesetzt. Zwar richtete sich der Erziehungsanspruch der SED grundsätzlich auf alle Bürger, doch anders als Erwachsene hatten Kinder und Jugendliche noch keine eigenständige Stellung innerhalb des sozialen und gesellschaftlichen Gefüges gefunden und deshalb weniger Möglichkeiten, sich der politischen Einwirkung zu entziehen. Mit dem Jugendgesetz von 1974 wurde die sozialistische Persönlichkeit als Erziehungsziel festgelegt, dem auch die Eltern zu folgen hatten. Bildungschancen wurden schon frühzeitig von der Anpassung an vorgegebene Normen abhängig gemacht, abweichendes Verhalten konnte rigide bestraft werden und gravierende Folgen für den weiteren Lebensweg haben. Auch wenn die meisten Jugendlichen die Forderungen des Staates zu erfüllen schienen und ihre Verbundenheit mit der Politik der SED wann immer gefordert bezeugten, standen sie dieser Politik tatsächlich mindestens gleichgültig gegenüber. Der „Widerspruch zwischen Wort und Tat“ war eines der gravierenden Probleme der Herrschenden im Umgang mit Heranwachsenden. Es gab aber auch Jugendliche, die bewusst Einschränkungen in Kauf nahmen, um ihre Vorstellungen eines selbstbestimmten Lebens verwirklichen zu können. Schon bei geringfügiger Abweichung von ausdrücklichen oder unausgesprochenen Vorgaben mussten sie mit erheblichen staatlichen Eingriffen in ihr persönliches Dasein rechnen. Die äußerste Form der Abweichung waren Ausreiseersuchen und Fluchtversuche. Jugendliche waren unter Antragstellern und „Republikflüchtigen“ überproportional vertreten. Die Dissertation beleuchtet das Spannungsverhältnis zwischen staatlich vorgegebenen Lebenswegen und eigen-sinniger Gestaltung verschiedener Lebensbereiche von Kindern und Jugendlichen für die Jahre der Honecker-Herrschaft zwischen 1971 bis 1989 im Bezirk Schwerin.
It sometimes happens that we finish reading a passage of text just to realize that we have no idea what we just read. During these episodes of mindless reading our mind is elsewhere yet the eyes still move across the text. The phenomenon of mindless reading is common and seems to be widely recognized in lay psychology. However, the scientific investigation of mindless reading has long been underdeveloped. Recent progress in research on mindless reading has been based on self-report measures and on treating it as an all-or-none phenomenon (dichotomy-hypothesis). Here, we introduce the levels-of-inattention hypothesis proposing that mindless reading is graded and occurs at different levels of cognitive processing. Moreover, we introduce two new behavioral paradigms to study mindless reading at different levels in the eye-tracking laboratory. First (Chapter 2), we introduce shuffled text reading as a paradigm to approximate states of weak mindless reading experimentally and compare it to reading of normal text. Results from statistical analyses of eye movements that subjects perform in this task qualitatively support the ‘mindless’ hypothesis that cognitive influences on eye movements are reduced and the ‘foveal load’ hypothesis that the response of the zoom lens of attention to local text difficulty is enhanced when reading shuffled text. We introduce and validate an advanced version of the SWIFT model (SWIFT 3) incorporating the zoom lens of attention (Chapter 3) and use it to explain eye movements during shuffled text reading. Simulations of the SWIFT 3 model provide fully quantitative support for the ‘mindless’ and the ‘foveal load’ hypothesis. They moreover demonstrate that the zoom lens is an important concept to explain eye movements across reading and mindless reading tasks. Second (Chapter 4), we introduce the sustained attention to stimulus task (SAST) to catch episodes when external attention spontaneously lapses (i.e., attentional decoupling or mind wandering) via the overlooking of errors in the text and via signal detection analyses of error detection. Analyses of eye movements in the SAST revealed reduced influences from cognitive text processing during mindless reading. Based on these findings, we demonstrate that it is possible to predict states of mindless reading from eye movement recordings online. That cognition is not always needed to move the eyes supports autonomous mechanisms for saccade initiation. Results from analyses of error detection and eye movements provide support to our levels-of-inattention hypothesis that errors at different levels of the text assess different levels of decoupling. Analyses of pupil size in the SAST (Chapter 5) provide further support to the levels of inattention hypothesis and to the decoupling hypothesis that off-line thought is a distinct mode of cognitive functioning that demands cognitive resources and is associated with deep levels of decoupling. The present work demonstrates that the elusive phenomenon of mindless reading can be vigorously investigated in the cognitive laboratory and further incorporated in the theoretical framework of cognitive science.
Auf den Spuren der griechischen Mythen bei Anton Čechov in den Werken der frühen Schaffensperiode
(2012)
Die Poetik des Alltags des russischen Schriftstellers Anton Čechov fasziniert bereits über ein Jahrhundert die Leser weltweit. Dieser Faszination liegt nicht zuletzt der griechische Mythos zugrunde, ein Kulturerbe, das die Denkweise unserer Gesellschaft tief greifend beeinflusst hat. Die antiken Gottheiten und Helden wie Apollo, Dionysos, Pythia, Narziss werden in Čechovs wenig untersuchtem Frühwerk zu Menschen des Alltags. Diese Projektion ist eine parodie- und travestiehafte Modifikation der mythischen Elementarstrukturen. In dieser Verschmelzung des Mythischen mit dem Alltäglichen wird Čechov zum Nachfolger insbesondere des antiken Dramatikers Epicharm. Methodisch basiert meine Analyse auf dem Begriffspaar von „Wiedergebrauchs-Rede“ und „Verbrauchs-Rede“ des Rhetorikers Heinrich Lausberg: Čechov erzählt die prominenten Mythen so wieder, dass sie zwar ihre Erhabenheit verlieren, ihre untergründige Kraft jedoch beibehalten und so das Selbstbild des modernen Menschen bereichern.
Eye movements are a powerful tool to examine cognitive processes. However, in most paradigms little is known about the dynamics present in sequences of saccades and fixations. In particular, the control of fixation durations has been widely neglected in most tasks. As a notable exception, both spatial and temporal aspects of eye-movement control have been thoroughly investigated during reading. There, the scientific discourse was dominated by three controversies, (i), the role of oculomotor vs. cognitive processing on eye-movement control, (ii) the serial vs. parallel processing of words, and, (iii), the control of fixation durations. The main purpose of this thesis was to investigate eye movements in tasks that require sequences of fixations and saccades. While reading phenomena served as a starting point, we examined eye guidance in non-reading tasks with the aim to identify general principles of eye-movement control. In addition, the investigation of eye movements in non-reading tasks helped refine our knowledge about eye-movement control during reading. Our approach included the investigation of eye movements in non-reading experiments as well as the evaluation and development of computational models. I present three main results : First, oculomotor phenomena during reading can also be observed in non-reading tasks (Chapter 2 & 4). Oculomotor processes determine the fixation position within an object. The fixation position, in turn, modulates both the next saccade target and the current fixation duration. Second, predicitions of eye-movement models based on sequential attention shifts were falsified (Chapter 3). In fact, our results suggest that distributed processing of multiple objects forms the basis of eye-movement control. Third, fixation durations are under asymmetric control (Chapter 4). While increasing processing demands immediately prolong fixation durations, decreasing processing demands reduce fixation durations only with a temporal delay. We propose a computational model ICAT to account for asymmetric control. In this model, an autonomous timer initiates saccades after random time intervals independent of ongoing processing. However, processing demands that are higher than expected inhibit the execution of the next saccade and, thereby, prolong the current fixation. On the other hand, lower processing demands will not affect the duration before the next saccade is executed. Since the autonomous timer adjusts to expected processing demands from fixation to fixation, a decrease in processing demands may lead to a temporally delayed reduction of fixation durations. In an extended version of ICAT, we evaluated its performance while simulating both temporal and spatial aspects of eye-movement control. The eye-movement phenomena investigated in this thesis have now been observed in a number of different tasks, which suggests that they represent general principles of eye guidance. I propose that distributed processing of the visual input forms the basis of eye-movement control, while fixation durations are controlled by the principles outlined in ICAT. In addition, oculomotor control contributes considerably to the variability observed in eye movements. Interpretations for the relation between eye movements and cognition strongly benefit from a precise understanding of this interplay.
Mit der Liberalisierung des Strommarkts, den unsicheren Aussichten in der Klimapolitik und stark schwankenden Preisen bei Brennstoffen, Emissionsrechten und Kraftwerkskomponenten hat bei Kraftwerksinvestitionen das Risikomanagement an Bedeutung gewonnen. Dies äußert sich im vermehrten Einsatz probabilistischer Verfahren. Insbesondere bei regulativen Risiken liefert der klassische, häufigkeitsbasierte Wahrscheinlichkeitsbegriff aber keine Handhabe zur Risikoquantifizierung. In dieser Arbeit werden Kraftwerksinvestitionen und -portfolien in Deutschland mit Methoden des Bayes'schen Risikomanagements bewertet. Die Bayes'sche Denkschule begreift Wahrscheinlichkeit als persönliches Maß für Unsicherheit. Wahrscheinlichkeiten können auch ohne statistische Datenanalyse allein mit Expertenbefragungen gewonnen werden. Das Zusammenwirken unsicherer Werttreiber wurde mit einem probabilistischen DCF-Modell (Discounted Cash Flow-Modell) spezifiziert und in ein Einflussdiagramm mit etwa 1200 Objekten umgesetzt. Da der Überwälzungsgrad von Brennstoff- und CO2-Kosten und damit die Höhe der von den Kraftwerken erwirtschafteten Deckungsbeiträge im Wettbewerb bestimmt werden, reicht eine einzelwirtschaftliche Betrachtung der Kraftwerke nicht aus. Strompreise und Auslastungen werden mit Heuristiken anhand der individuellen Position der Kraftwerke in der Merit Order bestimmt, d.h. anhand der nach kurzfristigen Grenzkosten gestaffelten Einsatzreihenfolge. Dazu wurden 113 thermische Großkraftwerke aus Deutschland in einer Merit Order vereinigt. Das Modell liefert Wahrscheinlichkeitsverteilungen für zentrale Größen wie Kapitalwerte von Bestandsportfolien sowie Stromgestehungskosten und Kapitalwerte von Einzelinvestitionen (Steinkohle- und Braunkohlekraftwerke mit und ohne CO2-Abscheidung sowie GuD-Kraftwerke). Der Wert der Bestandsportfolien von RWE, E.ON, EnBW und Vattenfall wird primär durch die Beiträge der Braunkohle- und Atomkraftwerke bestimmt. Erstaunlicherweise schlägt sich der Emissionshandel nicht in Verlusten nieder. Dies liegt einerseits an den Zusatzgewinnen der Atomkraftwerke, andererseits an den bis 2012 gratis zugeteilten Emissionsrechten, welche hohe Windfall-Profite generieren. Dadurch erweist sich der Emissionshandel in seiner konkreten Ausgestaltung insgesamt als gewinnbringendes Geschäft. Über die Restlaufzeit der Bestandskraftwerke resultiert ab 2008 aus der Einführung des Emissionshandels ein Barwertvorteil von insgesamt 8,6 Mrd. €. In ähnlicher Dimension liegen die Barwertvorteile aus der 2009 von der Bundesregierung in Aussicht gestellten Laufzeitverlängerung für Atomkraftwerke. Bei einer achtjährigen Laufzeitverlängerung ergäben sich je nach CO2-Preisniveau Barwertvorteile von 8 bis 15 Mrd. €. Mit höheren CO2-Preisen und Laufzeitverlängerungen von bis zu 28 Jahren würden 25 Mrd. € oder mehr zusätzlich anfallen. Langfristig erscheint fraglich, ob unter dem gegenwärtigen Marktdesign noch Anreize für Investitionen in fossile Kraftwerke gegeben sind. Zu Beginn der NAP 2-Periode noch rentable Investitionen in Braunkohle- und GuD-Kraftwerke werden mit der auslaufenden Gratiszuteilung von Emissionsrechten zunehmend unrentabler. Die Rentabilität wird durch Strommarkteffekte der erneuerbaren Energien und ausscheidender alter Gas- und Ölkraftwerke stetig weiter untergraben. Steinkohlekraftwerke erweisen sich selbst mit anfänglicher Gratiszuteilung als riskante Investition. Die festgestellten Anreizprobleme für Neuinvestitionen sollten jedoch nicht dem Emissionshandel zugeschrieben werden, sondern resultieren aus den an Grenzkosten orientierten Strompreisen. Das Anreizproblem ist allerdings bei moderaten CO2-Preisen am größten. Es gilt auch für Kraftwerke mit CO2-Abscheidung: Obwohl die erwarteten Vermeidungskosten für CCS-Kraftwerke gegenüber konventionellen Kohlekraftwerken im Jahr 2025 auf 25 €/t CO2 (Braunkohle) bzw. 38,5 €/t CO2 (Steinkohle) geschätzt werden, wird ihr Bau erst ab CO2-Preisen von 50 bzw. 77 €/t CO2 rentabel. Ob und welche Kraftwerksinvestitionen sich langfristig rechnen, wird letztlich aber politisch entschieden und ist selbst unter stark idealisierten Bedingungen kaum vorhersagbar.
The potential increase in frequency and magnitude of extreme floods is currently discussed in terms of global warming and the intensification of the hydrological cycle. The profound knowledge of past natural variability of floods is of utmost importance in order to assess flood risk for the future. Since instrumental flood series cover only the last ~150 years, other approaches to reconstruct historical and pre-historical flood events are needed. Annually laminated (varved) lake sediments are meaningful natural geoarchives because they provide continuous records of environmental changes > 10000 years down to a seasonal resolution. Since lake basins additionally act as natural sediment traps, the riverine sediment supply, which is preserved as detrital event layers in the lake sediments, can be used as a proxy for extreme discharge events. Within my thesis I examined a ~ 8.50 m long sedimentary record from the pre-Alpine Lake Mondsee (Northeast European Alps), which covered the last 7000 years. This sediment record consists of calcite varves and intercalated detrital layers, which range in thickness from 0.05 to 32 mm. Detrital layer deposition was analysed by a combined method of microfacies analysis via thin sections, Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM), μX-ray fluorescence (μXRF) scanning and magnetic susceptibility. This approach allows characterizing individual detrital event layers and assigning a corresponding input mechanism and catchment. Based on varve counting and controlled by 14C age dates, the main goals of this thesis are (i) to identify seasonal runoff processes, which lead to significant sediment supply from the catchment into the lake basin and (ii) to investigate flood frequency under changing climate boundary conditions. This thesis follows a line of different time slices, presenting an integrative approach linking instrumental and historical flood data from Lake Mondsee in order to evaluate the flood record inferred from Lake Mondsee sediments. The investigation of eleven short cores covering the last 100 years reveals the abundance of 12 detrital layers. Therein, two types of detrital layers are distinguished by grain size, geochemical composition and distribution pattern within the lake basin. Detrital layers, which are enriched in siliciclastic and dolomitic material, reveal sediment supply from the Flysch sediments and Northern Calcareous Alps into the lake basin. These layers are thicker in the northern lake basin (0.1-3.9 mm) and thinner in the southern lake basin (0.05-1.6 mm). Detrital layers, which are enriched in dolomitic components forming graded detrital layers (turbidites), indicate the provenance from the Northern Calcareous Alps. These layers are generally thicker (0.65-32 mm) and are solely recorded within the southern lake basin. In comparison with instrumental data, thicker graded layers result from local debris flow events in summer, whereas thin layers are deposited during regional flood events in spring/summer. Extreme summer floods as reported from flood layer deposition are principally caused by cyclonic activity from the Mediterranean Sea, e.g. July 1954, July 1997 and August 2002. During the last two millennia, Lake Mondsee sediments reveal two significant flood intervals with decadal-scale flood episodes, during the Dark Ages Cold Period (DACP) and the transition from the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) into the Little Ice Age (LIA) suggesting a linkage of transition to climate cooling and summer flood recurrences in the Northeastern Alps. In contrast, intermediate or decreased flood episodes appeared during the MWP and the LIA. This indicates a non-straightforward relationship between temperature and flood recurrence, suggesting higher cyclonic activity during climate transition in the Northeast Alps. The 7000-year flood chronology reveals 47 debris flows and 269 floods, with increased flood activity shifting around 3500 and 1500 varve yr BP (varve yr BP = varve years before present, before present = AD 1950). This significant increase in flood activity shows a coincidence with millennial-scale climate cooling that is reported from main Alpine glacier advances and lower tree lines in the European Alps since about 3300 cal. yr BP (calibrated years before present). Despite relatively low flood occurrence prior to 1500 varve yr BP, floods at Lake Mondsee could have also influenced human life in early Neolithic lake dwellings (5750-4750 cal. yr BP). While the first lake dwellings were constructed on wetlands, the later lake dwellings were built on piles in the water suggesting an early flood risk adaptation of humans and/or a general change of the Late Neolithic Culture of lake-dwellers because of socio-economic reasons. However, a direct relationship between the final abandonment of the lake dwellings and higher flood frequencies is not evidenced.
The field of machine learning studies algorithms that infer predictive models from data. Predictive models are applicable for many practical tasks such as spam filtering, face and handwritten digit recognition, and personalized product recommendation. In general, they are used to predict a target label for a given data instance. In order to make an informed decision about the deployment of a predictive model, it is crucial to know the model’s approximate performance. To evaluate performance, a set of labeled test instances is required that is drawn from the distribution the model will be exposed to at application time. In many practical scenarios, unlabeled test instances are readily available, but the process of labeling them can be a time- and cost-intensive task and may involve a human expert. This thesis addresses the problem of evaluating a given predictive model accurately with minimal labeling effort. We study an active model evaluation process that selects certain instances of the data according to an instrumental sampling distribution and queries their labels. We derive sampling distributions that minimize estimation error with respect to different performance measures such as error rate, mean squared error, and F-measures. An analysis of the distribution that governs the estimator leads to confidence intervals, which indicate how precise the error estimation is. Labeling costs may vary across different instances depending on certain characteristics of the data. For instance, documents differ in their length, comprehensibility, and technical requirements; these attributes affect the time a human labeler needs to judge relevance or to assign topics. To address this, the sampling distribution is extended to incorporate instance-specific costs. We empirically study conditions under which the active evaluation processes are more accurate than a standard estimate that draws equally many instances from the test distribution. We also address the problem of comparing the risks of two predictive models. The standard approach would be to draw instances according to the test distribution, label the selected instances, and apply statistical tests to identify significant differences. Drawing instances according to an instrumental distribution affects the power of a statistical test. We derive a sampling procedure that maximizes test power when used to select instances, and thereby minimizes the likelihood of choosing the inferior model. Furthermore, we investigate the task of comparing several alternative models; the objective of an evaluation could be to rank the models according to the risk that they incur or to identify the model with lowest risk. An experimental study shows that the active procedure leads to higher test power than the standard test in many application domains. Finally, we study the problem of evaluating the performance of ranking functions, which are used for example for web search. In practice, ranking performance is estimated by applying a given ranking model to a representative set of test queries and manually assessing the relevance of all retrieved items for each query. We apply the concepts of active evaluation and active comparison to ranking functions and derive optimal sampling distributions for the commonly used performance measures Discounted Cumulative Gain and Expected Reciprocal Rank. Experiments on web search engine data illustrate significant reductions in labeling costs.