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Identifying abrupt transitions is a key question in various disciplines. Existing transition detection methods, however, do not rigorously account for time series uncertainties, often neglecting them altogether or assuming them to be independent and qualitatively similar. Here, we introduce a novel approach suited to handle uncertainties by representing the time series as a time-ordered sequence of probability density functions. We show how to detect abrupt transitions in such a sequence using the community structure of networks representing probabilities of recurrence. Using our approach, we detect transitions in global stock indices related to well-known periods of politico-economic volatility. We further uncover transitions in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation which coincide with periods of phase locking with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Finally, we provide for the first time an ‘uncertainty-aware’ framework which validates the hypothesis that ice-rafting events in the North Atlantic during the Holocene were synchronous with a weakened Asian summer monsoon.
The presence of a low-to mid-latitude interhemispheric hydrologic seesaw is apparent over orbital and glacial-interglacial timescales, but its existence over the most recent past remains unclear. Here we investigate, based on climate proxy reconstructions from both hemispheres, the inter-hemispherical phasing of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the low-to mid-latitude teleconnections in the Northern Hemisphere over the past 2000 years. A clear feature is a persistent southward shift of the ITCZ during the Little Ice Age until the beginning of the 19th Century. Strong covariation between our new composite ITCZ-stack and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) records reveals a tight coupling between these two synoptic weather and climate phenomena over decadal-to-centennial timescales. This relationship becomes most apparent when comparing two precisely dated, high-resolution paleorainfall records from Belize and Scotland, indicating that the low-to mid-latitude teleconnection was also active over annual-decadal timescales. It is likely a combination of external forcing, i.e., solar and volcanic, and internal feedbacks, that drives the synchronous ITCZ and NAO shifts via energy flux perturbations in the tropics.
Northeastern (NE) India experiences extraordinarily pronounced seasonal climate, governed by the Indian summer monsoon (ISM). The vulnerability of this region to floods and droughts calls for detailed and highly resolved paleoclimate reconstructions to assess the recurrence rate and driving factors of ISM changes. We use stable oxygen and carbon isotope ratios (delta O-18 and delta C-13) from stalagmite MAW-6 from Mawmluh Cave to infer climate and environmental conditions in NE India over the last deglaciation (16-6ka). We interpret stalagmite delta O-18 as reflecting ISM strength, whereas delta C-13 appears to be driven by local hydroclimate conditions. Pronounced shifts in ISM strength over the deglaciation are apparent from the delta O-18 record, similarly to other records from monsoonal Asia. The ISM is weaker during the late glacial (LG) period and the Younger Dryas, and stronger during the BOlling-Allerod and Holocene. Local conditions inferred from the delta C-13 record appear to have changed less substantially over time, possibly related to the masking effect of changing precipitation seasonality. Time series analysis of the delta O-18 record reveals more chaotic conditions during the late glacial and higher predictability during the Holocene, likely related to the strengthening of the seasonal recurrence of the ISM with the onset of the Holocene.
Hydrological and climatological controls on radiocarbon concentrations in a tropical stalagmite
(2016)
Precisely-dated stalagmites are increasingly important archives for the reconstruction of terrestrial paleoclimate at very high temporal resolution. In-depth understanding of local conditions at the cave site and of the processes driving stalagmite deposition is of paramount importance for interpreting proxy signals incorporated in stalagmite carbonate. Here we present a sub-decadally resolved dead carbon fraction (DCF) record for a stalagmite from Yok Balum Cave (southern Belize). The record is coupled to parallel stable carbon isotope (delta C-13) and U/Ca measurements, as well as radiocarbon (C-14) measurements from soils overlying the cave system. Using a karst carbon cycle model we disentangle the importance of soil and karst processes on stalagmite DCF incorporation, revealing a dominant host rock dissolution control on total DCF. Covariation between DCF, delta C-13, and U/Ca indicates that karst processes are a common driver of all three parameters, suggesting possible use of delta C-13 and trace element ratios to independently quantify DCF variability. A statistically significant multi-decadal lag of variable length exists between DCF and reconstructed solar activity, suggesting that solar activity influenced regional precipitation in Mesoamerica over the past 1500 years, but that the relationship was non-static. Although the precise nature of the observed lag is unclear, solar-induced changes in North Atlantic oceanic and atmospheric dynamics may play a role. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Reliable age models are fundamental for any palaeoclimate reconstruction. Available interpolation procedures between age control points are often inadequately reported, and very few translate age uncertainties to proxy uncertainties. Most available modeling algorithms do not allow incorporation of layer counted intervals to improve the confidence limits of the age model in question.
We present a framework that allows detection and interactive handling of age reversals and hiatuses, depth-age modeling, and proxy-record reconstruction. Monte Carlo simulation and a translation procedure are used to assign a precise time scale to climate proxies and to translate dating uncertainties to uncertainties in the proxy values. The presented framework allows integration of incremental relative dating information to improve the final age model. The free software package COPRA1.0 facilitates easy interactive usage.
To calibrate delta O-18 time-series from speleothems in the eastern Indian summer monsoon (ISM) region of India, and to understand the moisture regime over the northern Bay of Bengal (BoB) we analyze the delta O-18 and delta D of rainwater, collected in 2007 and 2008 near Cherrapunji, India. delta D values range from + 18.5 parts per thousand to 144.4 parts per thousand, while delta O-18 varies between +0.8 parts per thousand and 18.8 parts per thousand. The Local Meteoric Water Line (LMWL) is found to be indistinguishable from the Global Meteoric Water Line (GMWL). Late ISM (September-October) rainfall exhibits lowest delta O-18 and delta D values, with little relationship to the local precipitation amount. There is a trend to lighter isotope values over the course of the ISM, but it does not correlate with the patterns of temperature and rainfall amount delta O-18 and delta D time-series have to be interpreted with caution in terms of the 'amount effect' in this subtropical region. We find that the temporal trend in delta O-18 reflects increasing transport distance during the ISM, isotopic changes in the northern BoB surface waters during late ISM, and vapor re-equilibration with rain droplets. Using an isotope box model for surface ocean waters, we quantify the potential influence of river runoff on the isotopic composition of the seasonal freshwater plume in the northern BoB. Temporal variations in this source can contribute up to 25% of the observed changes in stable isotopes of precipitation in NE India. To delineate other moisture sources, we use backward trajectory computations and find a strong correlation between source region and isotopic composition. Palaeoclimatic stable isotope time-series from northeast Indian speleothems likely reflect changes in moisture source and transport pathway, as well as the isotopic composition of the BoB surface water, all of which in turn reflect ISM strength. Stalagmite records from the region can therefore be interpreted as integrated measures of the ISM strength.