Back to full interseismic plate locking decades after the giant 1960 Chile earthquake

  • Great megathrust earthquakes arise from the sudden release of energy accumulated during centuries of interseismic plate convergence. The moment deficit (energy available for future earthquakes) is commonly inferred by integrating the rate of interseismic plate locking over the time since the previous great earthquake. But accurate integration requires knowledge of how interseismic plate locking changes decades after earthquakes, measurements not available for most great earthquakes. Here we reconstruct the post-earthquake history of plate locking at Guafo Island, above the seismogenic zone of the giant 1960 (M-w = 9.5) Chile earthquake, through forward modeling of land-level changes inferred from aerial imagery (since 1974) and measured by GPS (since 1994). We find that interseismic locking increased to similar to 70% in the decade following the 1960 earthquake and then gradually to 100% by 2005. Our findings illustrate the transient evolution of plate locking in Chile, and suggest a similarly complex evolution elsewhere, withGreat megathrust earthquakes arise from the sudden release of energy accumulated during centuries of interseismic plate convergence. The moment deficit (energy available for future earthquakes) is commonly inferred by integrating the rate of interseismic plate locking over the time since the previous great earthquake. But accurate integration requires knowledge of how interseismic plate locking changes decades after earthquakes, measurements not available for most great earthquakes. Here we reconstruct the post-earthquake history of plate locking at Guafo Island, above the seismogenic zone of the giant 1960 (M-w = 9.5) Chile earthquake, through forward modeling of land-level changes inferred from aerial imagery (since 1974) and measured by GPS (since 1994). We find that interseismic locking increased to similar to 70% in the decade following the 1960 earthquake and then gradually to 100% by 2005. Our findings illustrate the transient evolution of plate locking in Chile, and suggest a similarly complex evolution elsewhere, with implications for the time- and magnitude-dependent probability of future events.show moreshow less

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Author details:Daniel MelnickORCiDGND, Shaoyang LiORCiD, Marcos MorenoORCiD, Marco Cisternas, Julius Jara-MuñozORCiDGND, Robert Wesson, Alan Nelson, Juan Carlos Báez, Zhiguo DengORCiDGND
URN:urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-425723
DOI:https://doi.org/10.25932/publishup-42572
ISSN:1866-8372
Title of parent work (English):Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe
Publication series (Volume number):Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe (678)
Publication type:Postprint
Language:English
Date of first publication:2019/03/11
Publication year:2018
Publishing institution:Universität Potsdam
Release date:2019/03/11
Tag:2010 M8.8 maule; afterslip; andean subduction zone; continuous GPS measurements; finite-element model; megathrust earthquake; postseismic deformation; resolution; slip; south-central Chile
Issue:678
Number of pages:10
Source:Nature Communications 9 (2018), Art. 3527 DOI 10.1038/s41467-018-05989-6
Organizational units:Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät
DDC classification:5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 50 Naturwissenschaften / 500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik
Peer review:Referiert
Publishing method:Open Access
License (German):License LogoCC-BY - Namensnennung 4.0 International
External remark:Bibliographieeintrag der Originalveröffentlichung/Quelle
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