Stress inversion in a gelatin box
- Assessing volcanic hazard in regions of distributed volcanism is challenging because of the uncertain location of future vents. A statistical-mechanical strategy to forecast such locations was recently proposed: here, we further develop and test it with analog models. We stress a gelatin block laterally and with surface excavations, and observe air-filled crack trajectories. We use the observed surface arrivals to sample the distributions of parameters describing the stress state of the gelatin block, combining deterministic crack trajectory simulations with a Monte Carlo approach. While the individual stress parameters remain unconstrained, we effectively retrieve their ratio and successfully forecast the arrival points of subsequent cracks.
Author details: | Lorenzo MantiloniORCiDGND, Timothy DavisORCiDGND, Ayleen Barbara Gaete RojasORCiDGND, Eleonora RivaltaORCiD |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090407 |
ISSN: | 0094-8276 |
ISSN: | 1944-8007 |
Title of parent work (English): | Geophysical research letters : GRL / American Geophysical Union |
Subtitle (English): | testing eruptive vent location forecasts with analog models |
Publisher: | American Geophysical Union |
Place of publishing: | Washington |
Publication type: | Article |
Language: | English |
Date of first publication: | 2021/02/16 |
Publication year: | 2021 |
Release date: | 2023/11/21 |
Tag: | analog experiment; calderas; continental rifts; dike; dike propagation; stress field; trajectories |
Volume: | 48 |
Issue: | 6 |
Article number: | e2020GL090407 |
Number of pages: | 11 |
Funding institution: | DFG-ICDPGerman Research Foundation (DFG) [RI 2782/3-1]; [RI 2782/6-1-ZO 277/3-1] |
Organizational units: | Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Geowissenschaften |
DDC classification: | 5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 55 Geowissenschaften, Geologie / 550 Geowissenschaften |
Peer review: | Referiert |
Publishing method: | Open Access / Hybrid Open-Access |
License (German): | CC-BY-NC - Namensnennung, nicht kommerziell 4.0 International |