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Making Predictions in a Changing World: The Benefits of Individual-Based Ecology

  • Ecologists urgently need a better ability to predict how environmental change affects biodiversity. We examine individual-based ecology (IBE), a research paradigm that promises better a predictive ability by using individual-based models (IBMs) to represent ecological dynamics as arising from how individuals interact with their environment and with each other. A key advantage of IBMs is that the basis for predictions-fitness maximization by individual organisms-is more general and reliable than the empirical relationships that other models depend on. Case studies illustrate the usefulness and predictive success of long-term IBE programs. The pioneering programs had three phases: conceptualization, implementation, and diversification. Continued validation of models runs throughout these phases. The breakthroughs that make IBE more productive include standards for describing and validating IBMs, improved and standardized theory for individual traits and behavior, software tools, and generalized instead of system-specific IBMs. WeEcologists urgently need a better ability to predict how environmental change affects biodiversity. We examine individual-based ecology (IBE), a research paradigm that promises better a predictive ability by using individual-based models (IBMs) to represent ecological dynamics as arising from how individuals interact with their environment and with each other. A key advantage of IBMs is that the basis for predictions-fitness maximization by individual organisms-is more general and reliable than the empirical relationships that other models depend on. Case studies illustrate the usefulness and predictive success of long-term IBE programs. The pioneering programs had three phases: conceptualization, implementation, and diversification. Continued validation of models runs throughout these phases. The breakthroughs that make IBE more productive include standards for describing and validating IBMs, improved and standardized theory for individual traits and behavior, software tools, and generalized instead of system-specific IBMs. We provide guidelines for pursuing IBE and a vision for future IBE research.show moreshow less

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Metadaten
Author details:Richard A. Stillman, Steven Floyd RailsbackORCiDGND, Jarl Giske, Uta BergerORCiDGND, Volker GrimmORCiDGND
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biu192
ISSN:0006-3568
ISSN:1525-3244
Title of parent work (English):Bioscience
Publisher:Oxford Univ. Press
Place of publishing:Oxford
Publication type:Article
Language:English
Year of first publication:2015
Publication year:2015
Release date:2017/03/27
Tag:ecology; fitness-maximization; individual-based; modeling; prediction
Volume:65
Issue:2
Number of pages:11
First page:140
Last Page:150
Organizational units:Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Biochemie und Biologie
Peer review:Referiert
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