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A vector error correction model for the relationship between public debt and inflation in Germany

  • In the paper, the interaction between public debt and inflation including mutual impulse response will be analysed. The European sovereign debt crisis brought once again the focus on the consequences of public debt in combination with an expansive monetary policy for the development of consumer prices. Public deficits can lead to inflation if the money supply is expansive. The high level of national debt, not only in the Euro-crisis countries, and the strong increase in total assets of the European Central Bank, as a result of the unconventional monetary policy, caused fears on inflating national debt. The transmission from public debt to inflation through money supply and long-term interest rate will be shown in the paper. Based on these theoretical thoughts, the variables public debt, consumer price index, money supply m3 and long-term interest rate will be analysed within a vector error correction model estimated by Johansen approach. In the empirical part of the article, quarterly data for Germany from 1991 by 2010 are to beIn the paper, the interaction between public debt and inflation including mutual impulse response will be analysed. The European sovereign debt crisis brought once again the focus on the consequences of public debt in combination with an expansive monetary policy for the development of consumer prices. Public deficits can lead to inflation if the money supply is expansive. The high level of national debt, not only in the Euro-crisis countries, and the strong increase in total assets of the European Central Bank, as a result of the unconventional monetary policy, caused fears on inflating national debt. The transmission from public debt to inflation through money supply and long-term interest rate will be shown in the paper. Based on these theoretical thoughts, the variables public debt, consumer price index, money supply m3 and long-term interest rate will be analysed within a vector error correction model estimated by Johansen approach. In the empirical part of the article, quarterly data for Germany from 1991 by 2010 are to be examined.zeige mehrzeige weniger

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Metadaten
Verfasserangaben:Andreas NastanskyGND, Alexander Mehnert, Hans Gerhard StroheGND
URN:urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-50246
Schriftenreihe (Bandnummer):Statistische Diskussionsbeiträge (51)
Publikationstyp:Monographie/Sammelband
Sprache:Englisch
Erscheinungsjahr:2014
Veröffentlichende Institution:Universität Potsdam
Datum der Freischaltung:21.01.2014
Freies Schlagwort / Tag:Beveridge-Nelson Decomposition; Inflation; Money Supply; Public Debt; Vector Error Correction Model
Organisationseinheiten:Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Wirtschaftswissenschaften
DDC-Klassifikation:3 Sozialwissenschaften / 33 Wirtschaft / 330 Wirtschaft
JEL-Klassifikation:C Mathematical and Quantitative Methods / C3 Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models / C32 Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions (Updated!)
E Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics / E3 Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles / E31 Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics / E5 Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit / E51 Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
H Public Economics / H6 National Budget, Deficit, and Debt / H63 Debt; Debt Management
Lizenz (Deutsch):License LogoKeine öffentliche Lizenz: Unter Urheberrechtsschutz
Externe Anmerkung:RVK-Klassifikation: QH 200
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