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Predicting Paris: Multi-Method Approaches to Forecast the Outcomes of Global Climate Negotiations

  • We examine the negotiations held under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention of Climate Change in Paris, December 2015. Prior to these negotiations, there was considerable uncertainty about whether an agreement would be reached, particularly given that the world’s leaders failed to do so in the 2009 negotiations held in Copenhagen. Amid this uncertainty, we applied three different methods to predict the outcomes: an expert survey and two negotiation simulation models, namely the Exchange Model and the Predictioneer’s Game. After the event, these predictions were assessed against the coded texts that were agreed in Paris. The evidence suggests that combining experts’ predictions to reach a collective expert prediction makes for significantly more accurate predictions than individual experts’ predictions. The differences in the performance between the two different negotiation simulation models were not statistically significant.

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Author:Detlef F. Sprinz, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Steffen Kallbekken, Frans Stokman, Hakon Saelen, Robert Thomson
Parent Title (English):Politics and Governance
Publisher:Cogitatio Press
Place of publication:Lisbon
Document Type:Article
Year of first Publication:2016
Year of Completion:2016
Release Date:2020/03/22
Tag:Paris agreement; climate policy; climate regime; expert survey; forecasting; global negotiations; prediction; simulation
First Page:172
Last Page:187
Organizational units:Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Sozialwissenschaften
Peer Review:Referiert