Conny Hammer, Matthias Ohrnberger

• We present a novel approach for short-term forecasting of volcano seismic activity. Volcanic earthquakes can be seen as a response mechanism of the earth crust to stresses induced by magma injection. From this point of view the temporal evolution of seismicity can be represented as a diffusion process which compensates pressure differences. By means of this dynamical approach we are able to estimate the system behavior in the near future which in turn allows us to forecast the evolution of the earthquake rate for the next time span from actual and past observations. For this purpose we model the earthquake rate as a random walk process embedded in a moving and deforming potential function. The center of the potential function is given by a moving average of the random walk's trace. We successfully apply this procedure to estimate the next day seismicity at Soufriere Hills volcano, Montserrat, over a time period of six years. When comparing the dynamical approach to the well known method of material failure forecast we find much betterWe present a novel approach for short-term forecasting of volcano seismic activity. Volcanic earthquakes can be seen as a response mechanism of the earth crust to stresses induced by magma injection. From this point of view the temporal evolution of seismicity can be represented as a diffusion process which compensates pressure differences. By means of this dynamical approach we are able to estimate the system behavior in the near future which in turn allows us to forecast the evolution of the earthquake rate for the next time span from actual and past observations. For this purpose we model the earthquake rate as a random walk process embedded in a moving and deforming potential function. The center of the potential function is given by a moving average of the random walk's trace. We successfully apply this procedure to estimate the next day seismicity at Soufriere Hills volcano, Montserrat, over a time period of six years. When comparing the dynamical approach to the well known method of material failure forecast we find much better predictions of the critical stages of volcanic activity using the new approach.…