TY - JOUR A1 - Steirou, Eva A1 - Gerlitz, Lars A1 - Sun, Xun A1 - Apel, Heiko A1 - Agarwal, Ankit A1 - Totz, Sonja Juliana A1 - Merz, Bruno T1 - Towards seasonal forecasting of flood probabilities in Europe using climate and catchment information JF - Scientific reports N2 - We investigate whether the distribution of maximum seasonal streamflow is significantly affected by catchment or climate state of the season/month ahead. We fit the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution to extreme seasonal streamflow for around 600 stations across Europe by conditioning the GEV location and scale parameters on 14 indices, which represent the season-ahead climate or catchment state. The comparison of these climate-informed models with the classical GEV distribution, with time-constant parameters, suggests that there is a substantial potential for seasonal forecasting of flood probabilities. The potential varies between seasons and regions. Overall, the season-ahead catchment wetness shows the highest potential, although climate indices based on large-scale atmospheric circulation, sea surface temperature or sea ice concentration also show some skill for certain regions and seasons. Spatially coherent patterns and a substantial fraction of climate-informed models are promising signs towards early alerts to increase flood preparedness already a season ahead. Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-16633-1 SN - 2045-2322 VL - 12 IS - 1 PB - Nature portfolio CY - Berlin ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Ganguli, Poulomi A1 - Merz, Bruno T1 - Extreme Coastal Water Levels Exacerbate Fluvial Flood Hazards in Northwestern Europe JF - Scientific reports N2 - Compound flooding, such as the co-occurrence of fluvial floods and extreme coastal water levels (CWL), may lead to significant impacts in densely-populated Low Elevation Coastal Zones. They may overstrain disaster management owing to the co-occurrence of inundation from rivers and the sea. Recent studies are limited by analyzing joint dependence between river discharge and either CWL or storm surges, and little is known about return levels of compound flooding, accounting for the covariance between drivers. Here, we assess the compound flood severity and identify hotspots for northwestern Europe during 1970–2014, using a newly developed Compound Hazard Ratio (CHR) that compares the severity of compound flooding associated with extreme CWL with the unconditional T-year fluvial peak discharge. We show that extreme CWL and stronger storms greatly amplify fluvial flood hazards. Our results, based on frequency analyses of observational records during 2013/2014’s winter storm Xaver, reveal that the river discharge of the 50-year compound flood is up to 70% larger, conditioned on the occurrence of extreme CWL, than that of the at-site peak discharge. For this event, nearly half of the stream gauges show increased flood hazards, demonstrating the importance of including the compounding effect of extreme CWL in river flood risk management. Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-49822-6 SN - 2045-2322 VL - 9 PB - Nature Publ. Group CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Duy, Nguyen Le A1 - Heidbüchel, Ingo A1 - Meyer, Hanno A1 - Merz, Bruno A1 - Apel, Heiko T1 - What controls the stable isotope composition of precipitation in the Mekong Delta? BT - a model-based statistical approach JF - Hydrology and earth system sciences : HESS N2 - This study analyzes the influence of local and regional climatic factors on the stable isotopic composition of rainfall in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) as part of the Asian monsoon region. It is based on 1.5 years of weekly rainfall samples. In the first step, the isotopic composition of the samples is analyzed by local meteoric water lines (LMWLs) and single-factor linear correlations. Additionally, the contribution of several regional and local factors is quantified by multiple linear regression (MLR) of all possible factor combinations and by relative importance analysis. This approach is novel for the interpretation of isotopic records and enables an objective quantification of the explained variance in isotopic records for individual factors. In this study, the local factors are extracted from local climate records, while the regional factors are derived from atmospheric backward trajectories of water particles. The regional factors, i.e., precipitation, temperature, relative humidity and the length of backward trajectories, are combined with equivalent local climatic parameters to explain the response variables delta O-18, delta H-2, and d-excess of precipitation at the station of measurement. The results indicate that (i) MLR can better explain the isotopic variation in precipitation (R-2 = 0.8) compared to single-factor linear regression (R-2 = 0.3); (ii) the isotopic variation in precipitation is controlled dominantly by regional moisture regimes (similar to 70 %) compared to local climatic conditions (similar to 30 %); (iii) the most important climatic parameter during the rainy season is the precipitation amount along the trajectories of air mass movement; (iv) the influence of local precipitation amount and temperature is not sig-nificant during the rainy season, unlike the regional precipitation amount effect; (v) secondary fractionation processes (e.g., sub-cloud evaporation) can be identified through the d-excess and take place mainly in the dry season, either locally for delta O-18 and delta H-2, or along the air mass trajectories for d-excess. The analysis shows that regional and local factors vary in importance over the seasons and that the source regions and transport pathways, and particularly the climatic conditions along the pathways, have a large influence on the isotopic composition of rainfall. Although the general results have been reported qualitatively in previous studies (proving the validity of the approach), the proposed method provides quantitative estimates of the controlling factors, both for the whole data set and for distinct seasons. Therefore, it is argued that the approach constitutes an advancement in the statistical analysis of isotopic records in rainfall that can supplement or precede more complex studies utilizing atmospheric models. Due to its relative simplicity, the method can be easily transferred to other regions, or extended with other factors. The results illustrate that the interpretation of the isotopic composition of precipitation as a recorder of local climatic conditions, as for example performed for paleorecords of water isotopes, may not be adequate in the southern part of the Indochinese Peninsula, and likely neither in other regions affected by monsoon processes. However, the presented approach could open a pathway towards better and seasonally differentiated reconstruction of paleoclimates based on isotopic records. Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1239-2018 SN - 1027-5606 SN - 1607-7938 VL - 22 IS - 2 SP - 1239 EP - 1262 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Ganguli, Poulomi A1 - Paprotny, Dominik A1 - Hasan, Mehedi A1 - Güntner, Andreas A1 - Merz, Bruno T1 - Projected changes in compound flood hazard from riverine and coastal floods in northwestern Europe JF - Earth's future N2 - Compound flooding in coastal regions, that is, the simultaneous or successive occurrence of high sea levels and high river flows, is expected to increase in a warmer world. To date, however, there is no robust evidence on projected changes in compound flooding for northwestern Europe. We combine projected storm surges and river floods with probabilistic, localized relative sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios to assess the future compound flood hazard over northwestern coastal Europe in the high (RCP8.5) emission scenario. We use high-resolution, dynamically downscaled regional climate models (RCM) to drive a storm surge model and a hydrological model, and analyze the joint occurrence of high coastal water levels and associated river peaks in a multivariate copula-based approach. The RCM-forced multimodel mean reasonably represents the observed spatial pattern of the dependence strength between annual maxima surge and peak river discharge, although substantial discrepancies exist between observed and simulated dependence strength. All models overestimate the dependence strength, possibly due to limitations in model parameterizations. This bias affects compound flood hazard estimates and requires further investigation. While our results suggest decreasing compound flood hazard over the majority of sites by 2050s (2040-2069) compared to the reference period (1985-2005), an increase in projected compound flood hazard is limited to around 34% of the sites. Further, we show the substantial role of SLR, a driver of compound floods, which has frequently been neglected. Our findings highlight the need to be aware of the limitations of the current generation of Earth system models in simulating coastal compound floods. KW - compound flood KW - storm surge KW - river floods KW - sea level rise KW - climate KW - change KW - Europe Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001752 SN - 2328-4277 VL - 8 IS - 11 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Hoboken, NJ ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Heinrich, Ingo A1 - Balanzategui, Daniel A1 - Bens, Oliver A1 - Blasch, Gerald A1 - Blume, Theresa A1 - Boettcher, Falk A1 - Borg, Erik A1 - Brademann, Brian A1 - Brauer, Achim A1 - Conrad, Christopher A1 - Dietze, Elisabeth A1 - Dräger, Nadine A1 - Fiener, Peter A1 - Gerke, Horst H. A1 - Güntner, Andreas A1 - Heine, Iris A1 - Helle, Gerhard A1 - Herbrich, Marcus A1 - Harfenmeister, Katharina A1 - Heussner, Karl-Uwe A1 - Hohmann, Christian A1 - Itzerott, Sibylle A1 - Jurasinski, Gerald A1 - Kaiser, Knut A1 - Kappler, Christoph A1 - Koebsch, Franziska A1 - Liebner, Susanne A1 - Lischeid, Gunnar A1 - Merz, Bruno A1 - Missling, Klaus Dieter A1 - Morgner, Markus A1 - Pinkerneil, Sylvia A1 - Plessen, Birgit A1 - Raab, Thomas A1 - Ruhtz, Thomas A1 - Sachs, Torsten A1 - Sommer, Michael A1 - Spengler, Daniel A1 - Stender, Vivien A1 - Stüve, Peter A1 - Wilken, Florian T1 - Interdisciplinary Geo-ecological Research across Time Scales in the Northeast German Lowland Observatory (TERENO-NE) JF - Vadose zone journal N2 - The Northeast German Lowland Observatory (TERENO-NE) was established to investigate the regional impact of climate and land use change. TERENO-NE focuses on the Northeast German lowlands, for which a high vulnerability has been determined due to increasing temperatures and decreasing amounts of precipitation projected for the coming decades. To facilitate in-depth evaluations of the effects of climate and land use changes and to separate the effects of natural and anthropogenic drivers in the region, six sites were chosen for comprehensive monitoring. In addition, at selected sites, geoarchives were used to substantially extend the instrumental records back in time. It is this combination of diverse disciplines working across different time scales that makes the observatory TERENO-NE a unique observation platform. We provide information about the general characteristics of the observatory and its six monitoring sites and present examples of interdisciplinary research activities at some of these sites. We also illustrate how monitoring improves process understanding, how remote sensing techniques are fine-tuned by the most comprehensive ground-truthing site DEMMIN, how soil erosion dynamics have evolved, how greenhouse gas monitoring of rewetted peatlands can reveal unexpected mechanisms, and how proxy data provides a long-term perspective of current ongoing changes. Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.2136/vzj2018.06.0116 SN - 1539-1663 VL - 17 IS - 1 PB - Soil Science Society of America CY - Madison ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kreibich, Heidi A1 - Di Baldassarre, Giuliano A1 - Vorogushyn, Sergiy A1 - Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H. A1 - Apel, Heiko A1 - Aronica, Giuseppe T. A1 - Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten A1 - Bouwer, Laurens M. A1 - Bubeck, Philip A1 - Caloiero, Tommaso A1 - Chinh, Do T. A1 - Cortes, Maria A1 - Gain, Animesh K. A1 - Giampa, Vincenzo A1 - Kuhlicke, Christian A1 - Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W. A1 - Llasat, Maria Carmen A1 - Mard, Johanna A1 - Matczak, Piotr A1 - Mazzoleni, Maurizio A1 - Molinari, Daniela A1 - Dung, Nguyen V. A1 - Petrucci, Olga A1 - Schröter, Kai A1 - Slager, Kymo A1 - Thieken, Annegret A1 - Ward, Philip J. A1 - Merz, Bruno T1 - Adaptation to flood risk BT - Results of international paired flood event studies JF - Earth's Future N2 - As flood impacts are increasing in large parts of the world, understanding the primary drivers of changes in risk is essential for effective adaptation. To gain more knowledge on the basis of empirical case studies, we analyze eight paired floods, that is, consecutive flood events that occurred in the same region, with the second flood causing significantly lower damage. These success stories of risk reduction were selected across different socioeconomic and hydro-climatic contexts. The potential of societies to adapt is uncovered by describing triggered societal changes, as well as formal measures and spontaneous processes that reduced flood risk. This novel approach has the potential to build the basis for an international data collection and analysis effort to better understand and attribute changes in risk due to hydrological extremes in the framework of the IAHSs Panta Rhei initiative. Across all case studies, we find that lower damage caused by the second event was mainly due to significant reductions in vulnerability, for example, via raised risk awareness, preparedness, and improvements of organizational emergency management. Thus, vulnerability reduction plays an essential role for successful adaptation. Our work shows that there is a high potential to adapt, but there remains the challenge to stimulate measures that reduce vulnerability and risk in periods in which extreme events do not occur. KW - flooding KW - vulnerability KW - global environmental change KW - adaptation Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/2017EF000606 SN - 2328-4277 VL - 5 SP - 953 EP - 965 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Inceoglu, Fadil A1 - Shprits, Yuri A1 - Heinemann, Stephan G. A1 - Bianco, Stefano T1 - Identification of coronal holes on AIA/SDO images using unsupervised machine learning JF - The astrophysical journal : an international review of spectroscopy and astronomical physics N2 - Through its magnetic activity, the Sun governs the conditions in Earth's vicinity, creating space weather events, which have drastic effects on our space- and ground-based technology. One of the most important solar magnetic features creating the space weather is the solar wind that originates from the coronal holes (CHs). The identification of the CHs on the Sun as one of the source regions of the solar wind is therefore crucial to achieve predictive capabilities. In this study, we used an unsupervised machine-learning method, k-means, to pixel-wise cluster the passband images of the Sun taken by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly on the Solar Dynamics Observatory in 171, 193, and 211 angstrom in different combinations. Our results show that the pixel-wise k-means clustering together with systematic pre- and postprocessing steps provides compatible results with those from complex methods, such as convolutional neural networks. More importantly, our study shows that there is a need for a CH database where a consensus about the CH boundaries is reached by observers independently. This database then can be used as the "ground truth," when using a supervised method or just to evaluate the goodness of the models. Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ac5f43 SN - 1538-4357 VL - 930 IS - 2 PB - IOP Publ. Ltd. CY - Bristol ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Drozdov, Alexander A1 - Allison, Hayley J. A1 - Shprits, Yuri A1 - Usanova, Maria E. A1 - Saikin, Anthony A1 - Wang, Dedong T1 - Depletions of Multi-MeV Electrons and their association to Minima in Phase Space Density JF - Geophysical research letters N2 - Fast-localized electron loss, resulting from interactions with electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves, can produce deepening minima in phase space density (PSD) radial profiles. Here, we perform a statistical analysis of local PSD minima to quantify how readily these are associated with radiation belt depletions. The statistics of PSD minima observed over a year are compared to the Versatile Electron Radiation Belts (VERB) simulations, both including and excluding EMIC waves. The observed minima distribution can only be achieved in the simulation including EMIC waves, indicating their importance in the dynamics of the radiation belts. By analyzing electron flux depletions in conjunction with the observed PSD minima, we show that, in the heart of the outer radiation belt (L* < 5), on average, 53% of multi-MeV electron depletions are associated with PSD minima, demonstrating that fast localized loss by interactions with EMIC waves are a common and crucial process for ultra-relativistic electron populations. KW - radiation belts KW - EMIC KW - VERB KW - PSD Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL097620 SN - 0094-8276 SN - 1944-8007 VL - 49 IS - 8 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Bastian, Philipp U. A1 - Robel, Nathalie A1 - Schmidt, Peter A1 - Schrumpf, Tim A1 - Günter, Christina A1 - Roddatis, Vladimir A1 - Kumke, Michael Uwe T1 - Resonance energy transfer to track the motion of lanthanide ions BT - what drives the intermixing in core-shell upconverting nanoparticles? JF - Biosensors : open access journal N2 - The imagination of clearly separated core-shell structures is already outdated by the fact, that the nanoparticle core-shell structures remain in terms of efficiency behind their respective bulk material due to intermixing between core and shell dopant ions. In order to optimize the photoluminescence of core-shell UCNP the intermixing should be as small as possible and therefore, key parameters of this process need to be identified. In the present work the Ln(III) ion migration in the host lattices NaYF4 and NaGdF4 was monitored. These investigations have been performed by laser spectroscopy with help of lanthanide resonance energy transfer (LRET) between Eu(III) as donor and Pr(III) or Nd(III) as acceptor. The LRET is evaluated based on the Forster theory. The findings corroborate the literature and point out the migration of ions in the host lattices. Based on the introduced LRET model, the acceptor concentration in the surrounding of one donor depends clearly on the design of the applied core-shell-shell nanoparticles. In general, thinner intermediate insulating shells lead to higher acceptor concentration, stronger quenching of the Eu(III) donor and subsequently stronger sensitization of the Pr(III) or the Nd(III) acceptors. The choice of the host lattice as well as of the synthesis temperature are parameters to be considered for the intermixing process. KW - upconversion nanoparticles KW - lanthanoid migration KW - lanthanides KW - core-shell KW - energy transfer Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/bios11120515 SN - 2079-6374 VL - 11 IS - 12 PB - MDPI CY - Basel ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Block, Inga A1 - Günter, Christina A1 - Duarte Rodrigues, Alysson A1 - Paasch, Silvia A1 - Hesemann, Peter A1 - Taubert, Andreas T1 - Carbon adsorbents from spent coffee for removal of methylene blue and methyl orange from water JF - Materials / Molecular Diversity Preservation International N2 - Activated carbons (ACs) were prepared from dried spent coffee (SCD), a biological waste product, to produce adsorbents for methylene blue (MB) and methyl orange (MO) from aqueous solution. Pre-pyrolysis activation of SCD was achieved via treatment of the SCD with aqueous sodium hydroxide solutions at 90 °C. Pyrolysis of the pretreated SCD at 500 °C for 1 h produced powders with typical characteristics of AC suitable and effective for dye adsorption. As an alternative to the rather harsh base treatment, calcium carbonate powder, a very common and abundant resource, was also studied as an activator. Mixtures of SCD and CaCO3 (1:1 w/w) yielded effective ACs for MO and MB removal upon pyrolysis needing only small amounts of AC to clear the solutions. A selectivity of the adsorption process toward anionic (MO) or cationic (MB) dyes was not observed. KW - water KW - spent coffee KW - dye adsorption KW - methylene blue KW - methyl orange KW - calcium carbonate KW - activated carbon KW - water treatment KW - dye removal Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/ma14143996 SN - 1996-1944 VL - 14 IS - 14 PB - Molecular Diversity Preservation International CY - Basel ER -