TY - JOUR A1 - Nitze, Ingmar A1 - Grosse, Guido A1 - Jones, Benjamin M. A1 - Romanovsky, Vladimir E. A1 - Boike, Julia T1 - Remote sensing quantifies widespread abundance of permafrost region disturbances across the Arctic and Subarctic JF - Nature Communications N2 - Local observations indicate that climate change and shifting disturbance regimes are causing permafrost degradation. However, the occurrence and distribution of permafrost region disturbances (PRDs) remain poorly resolved across the Arctic and Subarctic. Here we quantify the abundance and distribution of three primary PRDs using time-series analysis of 30-m resolution Landsat imagery from 1999 to 2014. Our dataset spans four continental-scale transects in North America and Eurasia, covering similar to 10% of the permafrost region. Lake area loss (-1.45%) dominated the study domain with enhanced losses occurring at the boundary between discontinuous and continuous permafrost regions. Fires were the most extensive PRD across boreal regions (6.59%), but in tundra regions (0.63%) limited to Alaska. Retrogressive thaw slumps were abundant but highly localized (< 10(-5)%). Our analysis synergizes the global-scale importance of PRDs. The findings highlight the need to include PRDs in next-generation land surface models to project the permafrost carbon feedback. Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-07663-3 SN - 2041-1723 VL - 9 PB - Nature Publ. Group CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Siddiqui, Tarique Adnan A1 - Maute, Astrid A1 - Pedatella, Nick A1 - Yamazaki, Yosuke A1 - Lühr, Hermann A1 - Stolle, Claudia T1 - On the variability of the semidiurnal solar and lunar tides of the equatorial electrojet during sudden stratospheric warmings JF - Annales geophysicae N2 - The variabilities of the semidiurnal solar and lunar tides of the equatorial electrojet (EEJ) are investigated during the 2003, 2006, 2009 and 2013 major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events in this study. For this purpose, ground-magnetometer recordings at the equatorial observatories in Huancayo and Fuquene are utilized. Results show a major enhancement in the amplitude of the EEJ semidiurnal lunar tide in each of the four warming events. The EEJ semidiurnal solar tidal amplitude shows an amplification prior to the onset of warmings, a reduction during the deceleration of the zonal mean zonal wind at 60 degrees N and 10 hPa, and a second enhancement a few days after the peak reversal of the zonal mean zonal wind during all four SSWs. Results also reveal that the amplitude of the EEJ semidiurnal lunar tide becomes comparable or even greater than the amplitude of the EEJ semidiurnal solar tide during all these warming events. The present study also compares the EEJ semidiurnal solar and lunar tidal changes with the variability of the migrating semidiurnal solar (SW2) and lunar (M2) tides in neutral temperature and zonal wind obtained from numerical simulations at E-region heights. A better agreement between the enhancements of the EEJ semidiurnal lunar tide and the M2 tide is found in comparison with the enhancements of the EEJ semidiurnal solar tide and the SW2 tide in both the neutral temperature and zonal wind at the E-region altitudes. Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-36-1545-2018 SN - 0992-7689 SN - 1432-0576 VL - 36 IS - 6 SP - 1545 EP - 1562 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Shcherbakov, Robert A1 - Zhuang, Jiancang A1 - Zöller, Gert A1 - Ogata, Yosihiko T1 - Forecasting the magnitude of the largest expected earthquake JF - Nature Communications N2 - The majority of earthquakes occur unexpectedly and can trigger subsequent sequences of events that can culminate in more powerful earthquakes. This self-exciting nature of seismicity generates complex clustering of earthquakes in space and time. Therefore, the problem of constraining the magnitude of the largest expected earthquake during a future time interval is of critical importance in mitigating earthquake hazard. We address this problem by developing a methodology to compute the probabilities for such extreme earthquakes to be above certain magnitudes. We combine the Bayesian methods with the extreme value theory and assume that the occurrence of earthquakes can be described by the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence process. We analyze in detail the application of this methodology to the 2016 Kumamoto, Japan, earthquake sequence. We are able to estimate retrospectively the probabilities of having large subsequent earthquakes during several stages of the evolution of this sequence. Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-11958-4 SN - 2041-1723 VL - 10 PB - Nature Publishing Group CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Vidal-Garcia, Marta A1 - Bandara, Lashi A1 - Keogh, J. Scott T1 - ShapeRotator BT - an R tool for standardized rigid rotations of articulated three-dimensional structures with application for geometric morphometrics JF - Ecology and evolution N2 - The quantification of complex morphological patterns typically involves comprehensive shape and size analyses, usually obtained by gathering morphological data from all the structures that capture the phenotypic diversity of an organism or object. Articulated structures are a critical component of overall phenotypic diversity, but data gathered from these structures are difficult to incorporate into modern analyses because of the complexities associated with jointly quantifying 3D shape in multiple structures. While there are existing methods for analyzing shape variation in articulated structures in two-dimensional (2D) space, these methods do not work in 3D, a rapidly growing area of capability and research. Here, we describe a simple geometric rigid rotation approach that removes the effect of random translation and rotation, enabling the morphological analysis of 3D articulated structures. Our method is based on Cartesian coordinates in 3D space, so it can be applied to any morphometric problem that also uses 3D coordinates (e.g., spherical harmonics). We demonstrate the method by applying it to a landmark-based dataset for analyzing shape variation using geometric morphometrics. We have developed an R tool (ShapeRotator) so that the method can be easily implemented in the commonly used R package geomorph and MorphoJ software. This method will be a valuable tool for 3D morphological analyses in articulated structures by allowing an exhaustive examination of shape and size diversity. KW - articulation KW - morphology KW - motion correction KW - multi-modular morphology Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.4018 SN - 2045-7758 VL - 8 IS - 9 SP - 4669 EP - 4675 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Ringel, Lisa Maria A1 - Somogyvári, Márk A1 - Jalali, Mohammadreza A1 - Bayer, Peter T1 - Comparison of hydraulic and tracer tomography for discrete fracture network inversion JF - Geosciences N2 - Fractures serve as highly conductive preferential flow paths for fluids in rocks, which are difficult to exactly reconstruct in numerical models. Especially, in low-conductive rocks, fractures are often the only pathways for advection of solutes and heat. The presented study compares the results from hydraulic and tracer tomography applied to invert a theoretical discrete fracture network (DFN) that is based on data from synthetic cross-well testing. For hydraulic tomography, pressure pulses in various injection intervals are induced and the pressure responses in the monitoring intervals of a nearby observation well are recorded. For tracer tomography, a conservative tracer is injected in different well levels and the depth-dependent breakthrough of the tracer is monitored. A recently introduced transdimensional Bayesian inversion procedure is applied for both tomographical methods, which adjusts the fracture positions, orientations, and numbers based on given geometrical fracture statistics. The used Metropolis-Hastings-Green algorithm is refined by the simultaneous estimation of the measurement error’s variance, that is, the measurement noise. Based on the presented application to invert the two-dimensional cross-section between source and the receiver well, the hydraulic tomography reveals itself to be more suitable for reconstructing the original DFN. This is based on a probabilistic representation of the inverted results by means of fracture probabilities. KW - hydraulic tomography KW - tracer tomography KW - DFN KW - Bayesian inversion KW - heterogeneity KW - fracture KW - hydrogeophysics Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9060274 SN - 2076-3263 VL - 9 IS - 6 PB - MDPI CY - Basel ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Maoutsa, Dimitra A1 - Reich, Sebastian A1 - Opper, Manfred T1 - Interacting particle solutions of Fokker–Planck equations through gradient–log–density estimation JF - Entropy N2 - Fokker-Planck equations are extensively employed in various scientific fields as they characterise the behaviour of stochastic systems at the level of probability density functions. Although broadly used, they allow for analytical treatment only in limited settings, and often it is inevitable to resort to numerical solutions. Here, we develop a computational approach for simulating the time evolution of Fokker-Planck solutions in terms of a mean field limit of an interacting particle system. The interactions between particles are determined by the gradient of the logarithm of the particle density, approximated here by a novel statistical estimator. The performance of our method shows promising results, with more accurate and less fluctuating statistics compared to direct stochastic simulations of comparable particle number. Taken together, our framework allows for effortless and reliable particle-based simulations of Fokker-Planck equations in low and moderate dimensions. The proposed gradient-log-density estimator is also of independent interest, for example, in the context of optimal control. KW - stochastic systems KW - Fokker-Planck equation KW - interacting particles KW - multiplicative noise KW - gradient flow KW - stochastic differential equations Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/e22080802 SN - 1099-4300 VL - 22 IS - 8 PB - MDPI CY - Basel ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Perera, Upeksha A1 - Böckmann, Christine T1 - Solutions of Sturm-Liouville problems JF - Mathematics N2 - This paper further improves the Lie group method with Magnus expansion proposed in a previous paper by the authors, to solve some types of direct singular Sturm-Liouville problems. Next, a concrete implementation to the inverse Sturm-Liouville problem algorithm proposed by Barcilon (1974) is provided. Furthermore, computational feasibility and applicability of this algorithm to solve inverse Sturm-Liouville problems of higher order (for n=2,4) are verified successfully. It is observed that the method is successful even in the presence of significant noise, provided that the assumptions of the algorithm are satisfied. In conclusion, this work provides a method that can be adapted successfully for solving a direct (regular/singular) or inverse Sturm-Liouville problem (SLP) of an arbitrary order with arbitrary boundary conditions. KW - Sturm-Liouville problems of higher order KW - singular Sturm-Liouville KW - problems KW - inverse Sturm-Liouville problems Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/math8112074 SN - 2227-7390 VL - 8 IS - 11 PB - MDPI CY - Basel ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zemella, Anne A1 - Thoring, Lena A1 - Hoffmeister, Christian A1 - Samalikova, Maria A1 - Ehren, Patricia A1 - Wüstenhagen, Doreen Anja A1 - Kubick, Stefan T1 - Cell-free protein synthesis as a novel tool for directed glycoengineering of active erythropoietin JF - Scientific reports N2 - As one of the most complex post-translational modification, glycosylation is widely involved in cell adhesion, cell proliferation and immune response. Nevertheless glycoproteins with an identical polypeptide backbone mostly differ in their glycosylation patterns. Due to this heterogeneity, the mapping of different glycosylation patterns to their associated function is nearly impossible. In the last years, glycoengineering tools including cell line engineering, chemoenzymatic remodeling and site-specific glycosylation have attracted increasing interest. The therapeutic hormone erythropoietin (EPO) has been investigated in particular by various groups to establish a production process resulting in a defined glycosylation pattern. However commercially available recombinant human EPO shows batch-to-batch variations in its glycoforms. Therefore we present an alternative method for the synthesis of active glycosylated EPO with an engineered O-glycosylation site by combining eukaryotic cell-free protein synthesis and site-directed incorporation of non-canonical amino acids with subsequent chemoselective modifications. Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-26936-x SN - 2045-2322 VL - 8 PB - Nature Publ. Group CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Ruchi, Sangeetika A1 - Dubinkina, Svetlana A1 - Wiljes, Jana de T1 - Fast hybrid tempered ensemble transform filter formulation for Bayesian elliptical problems via Sinkhorn approximation JF - Nonlinear processes in geophysics / European Geosciences Union ; American Geophysical Union N2 - Identification of unknown parameters on the basis of partial and noisy data is a challenging task, in particular in high dimensional and non-linear settings. Gaussian approximations to the problem, such as ensemble Kalman inversion, tend to be robust and computationally cheap and often produce astonishingly accurate estimations despite the simplifying underlying assumptions. Yet there is a lot of room for improvement, specifically regarding a correct approximation of a non-Gaussian posterior distribution. The tempered ensemble transform particle filter is an adaptive Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method, whereby resampling is based on optimal transport mapping. Unlike ensemble Kalman inversion, it does not require any assumptions regarding the posterior distribution and hence has shown to provide promising results for non-linear non-Gaussian inverse problems. However, the improved accuracy comes with the price of much higher computational complexity, and the method is not as robust as ensemble Kalman inversion in high dimensional problems. In this work, we add an entropy-inspired regularisation factor to the underlying optimal transport problem that allows the high computational cost to be considerably reduced via Sinkhorn iterations. Further, the robustness of the method is increased via an ensemble Kalman inversion proposal step before each update of the samples, which is also referred to as a hybrid approach. The promising performance of the introduced method is numerically verified by testing it on a steady-state single-phase Darcy flow model with two different permeability configurations. The results are compared to the output of ensemble Kalman inversion, and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods results are computed as a benchmark. Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-23-2021 SN - 1023-5809 SN - 1607-7946 VL - 28 IS - 1 SP - 23 EP - 41 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Ropp, Guillaume A1 - Lesur, Vincent A1 - Bärenzung, Julien A1 - Holschneider, Matthias T1 - Sequential modelling of the Earth’s core magnetic field JF - Earth, Planets and Space N2 - We describe a new, original approach to the modelling of the Earth's magnetic field. The overall objective of this study is to reliably render fast variations of the core field and its secular variation. This method combines a sequential modelling approach, a Kalman filter, and a correlation-based modelling step. Sources that most significantly contribute to the field measured at the surface of the Earth are modelled. Their separation is based on strong prior information on their spatial and temporal behaviours. We obtain a time series of model distributions which display behaviours similar to those of recent models based on more classic approaches, particularly at large temporal and spatial scales. Interesting new features and periodicities are visible in our models at smaller time and spatial scales. An important aspect of our method is to yield reliable error bars for all model parameters. These errors, however, are only as reliable as the description of the different sources and the prior information used are realistic. Finally, we used a slightly different version of our method to produce candidate models for the thirteenth edition of the International Geomagnetic Reference Field. KW - geomagnetic field KW - secular variation KW - Kalman filter KW - IGRF Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-020-01230-1 SN - 1880-5981 VL - 72 IS - 1 PB - Springer CY - New York ER -