TY  - JOUR
A1  - Konon, Alexander
A1  - Kritikos, Alexander
T1  - Prediction based on entrepreneurship-prone personality profiles:
BT  - sometimes worse than the toss of a coin
JF  - Small business economics : an international journal
N2  - The human personality predicts a wide range of activities and occupational choices-from musical sophistication to entrepreneurial careers. However, which method should be applied if information on personality traits is used for prediction and advice? In psychological research, group profiles are widely employed. In this contribution, we examine the performance of profiles using the example of career prediction and advice, involving a comparison of average trait scores of successful entrepreneurs with the traits of potential entrepreneurs. Based on a simple theoretical model estimated with GSOEP data and analyzed with Monte Carlo methods, we show, for the first time, that the choice of the comparison method matters substantially. We reveal that under certain conditions the performance of average profiles is inferior to the tossing of a coin. Alternative methods, such as directly estimating success probabilities, deliver better performance and are more robust.
KW  - Advice
KW  - Personality
KW  - Entrepreneurship
KW  - Profiles
Y1  - 2018
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1007/s11187-018-0111-8
SN  - 0921-898X
SN  - 1573-0913
VL  - 53
IS  - 1
SP  - 1
EP  - 20
PB  - Springer
CY  - Dordrecht
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Konon, Alexander
A1  - Fritsch, Michael
A1  - Kritikos, Alexander
T1  - Business cycles and start-ups across industries
BT  - An empirical analysis of German regions
JF  - Journal of Business Venturing Insights
N2  - We analyze whether start-up rates in different industries systematically change with business cycle variables. Using a unique data set at the industry level, we mostly find correlations that are consistent with counter-cyclical influences of the business cycle on entries in both innovative and non-innovative industries. Entries into the large-scale industries, including the innovative part of manufacturing, are only influenced by changes in the cyclical component of unemployment, while entries into small-scale industries, like knowledge intensive services, are mostly influenced by changes in the cyclical component of GDP. Thus, our analysis suggests that favorable conditions in terms of high GDP might not be germane for start-ups. Given that both innovative and non-innovative businesses react counter-cyclically in ‘regular’ recessions, business formation may have a stabilizing effect on the economy.
KW  - New business formation
KW  - Entrepreneurship
KW  - Business cycle
KW  - Manufacturing
KW  - Services
KW  - Innovative industries
Y1  - 2018
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusvent.2018.04.006
SN  - 0883-9026
SN  - 1873-2003
VL  - 33
IS  - 6
SP  - 742
EP  - 761
PB  - Elsevier
CY  - Amsterdam
ER  -