TY - JOUR A1 - Rosenbaum, Benjamin A1 - Raatz, Michael A1 - Weithoff, Guntram A1 - Fussmann, Gregor F. A1 - Gaedke, Ursula T1 - Estimating parameters from multiple time series of population dynamics using bayesian inference JF - Frontiers in ecology and evolution N2 - Empirical time series of interacting entities, e.g., species abundances, are highly useful to study ecological mechanisms. Mathematical models are valuable tools to further elucidate those mechanisms and underlying processes. However, obtaining an agreement between model predictions and experimental observations remains a demanding task. As models always abstract from reality one parameter often summarizes several properties. Parameter measurements are performed in additional experiments independent of the ones delivering the time series. Transferring these parameter values to different settings may result in incorrect parametrizations. On top of that, the properties of organisms and thus the respective parameter values may vary considerably. These issues limit the use of a priori model parametrizations. In this study, we present a method suited for a direct estimation of model parameters and their variability from experimental time series data. We combine numerical simulations of a continuous-time dynamical population model with Bayesian inference, using a hierarchical framework that allows for variability of individual parameters. The method is applied to a comprehensive set of time series from a laboratory predator-prey system that features both steady states and cyclic population dynamics. Our model predictions are able to reproduce both steady states and cyclic dynamics of the data. Additionally to the direct estimates of the parameter values, the Bayesian approach also provides their uncertainties. We found that fitting cyclic population dynamics, which contain more information on the process rates than steady states, yields more precise parameter estimates. We detected significant variability among parameters of different time series and identified the variation in the maximum growth rate of the prey as a source for the transition from steady states to cyclic dynamics. By lending more flexibility to the model, our approach facilitates parametrizations and shows more easily which patterns in time series can be explained also by simple models. Applying Bayesian inference and dynamical population models in conjunction may help to quantify the profound variability in organismal properties in nature. KW - Bayesian inference KW - chemostat experiments KW - ordinary differential equation KW - parameter estimation KW - population dynamics KW - predator prey KW - time series analysis KW - trait variability Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2018.00234 SN - 2296-701X VL - 6 PB - Frontiers Research Foundation CY - Lausanne ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kruse, Julia A1 - Kummer, Volker A1 - Shivas, Roger G. A1 - Thines, Marco T1 - The first smut fungus, Thecaphora anthemidis sp nov (Glomosporiaceae), described from Anthemis (Asteraceae) JF - MycoKeys N2 - There are 63 known species of Thecaphora (Glomosporiaceae, Ustilaginomycotina), a third of which occur on Asteraceae. These smut fungi produce yellowish-brown to reddish-brown masses of spore balls in specific, mostly regenerative, plant organs. A species of Thecaphora was collected in the flower heads of Anthemis chia (Anthemideae, Asteraceae) on Rhodes Island, Greece, in 2015 and 2017, which represents the first smut record of a smut fungus on a host plant species in this tribe. Based on its distinctive morphology, host species and genetic divergence, this species is described as Thecaphora anthemidis sp. nov. Molecular barcodes of the ITS region are provided for this and several other species of Thecaphora. A phylogenetic and morphological comparison to closely related species showed that Th. anthemidis differed from other species of Thecaphora. Thecaphora anthemidis produced loose spore balls in the flower heads and peduncles of Anthemis chia unlike other flower-infecting species. KW - Glomosporiaceae KW - host specificity KW - internal transcribed spacer KW - molecular phylogenetics KW - smut fungi Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3897/mycokeys.41.28454 SN - 1314-4057 SN - 1314-4049 IS - 41 SP - 39 EP - 50 PB - Pensoft Publ. CY - Sofia ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Manzoni, Stefano A1 - Capek, Petr A1 - Porada, Philipp A1 - Thurner, Martin A1 - Winterdahl, Mattias A1 - Beer, Christian A1 - Bruchert, Volker A1 - Frouz, Jan A1 - Herrmann, Anke M. A1 - Lindahl, Bjorn D. A1 - Lyon, Steve W. A1 - Šantrůčková, Hana A1 - Vico, Giulia A1 - Way, Danielle T1 - Reviews and syntheses BT - Carbon use efficiency from organisms to ecosystems - definitions, theories, and empirical evidence JF - Biogeosciences N2 - The cycling of carbon (C) between the Earth surface and the atmosphere is controlled by biological and abiotic processes that regulate C storage in biogeochemical compartments and release to the atmosphere. This partitioning is quantified using various forms of C-use efficiency (CUE) - the ratio of C remaining in a system to C entering that system. Biological CUE is the fraction of C taken up allocated to biosynthesis. In soils and sediments, C storage depends also on abiotic processes, so the term C-storage efficiency (CSE) can be used. Here we first review and reconcile CUE and CSE definitions proposed for autotrophic and heterotrophic organisms and communities, food webs, whole ecosystems and watersheds, and soils and sediments using a common mathematical framework. Second, we identify general CUE patterns; for example, the actual CUE increases with improving growth conditions, and apparent CUE decreases with increasing turnover. We then synthesize > 5000CUE estimates showing that CUE decreases with increasing biological and ecological organization - from uni-cellular to multicellular organisms and from individuals to ecosystems. We conclude that CUE is an emergent property of coupled biological-abiotic systems, and it should be regarded as a flexible and scale-dependent index of the capacity of a given system to effectively retain C. Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5929-2018 SN - 1726-4170 SN - 1726-4189 VL - 15 IS - 19 SP - 5929 EP - 5949 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Risbey, James S. A1 - Lewandowsky, Stephan A1 - Cowtan, Kevin A1 - Oreskes, Naomi A1 - Rahmstorf, Stefan A1 - Jokimäki, Ari A1 - Foster, Grant T1 - A fluctuation in surface temperature in historical context BT - reassessment and retrospective on the evidence JF - Environmental research letters N2 - This work reviews the literature on an alleged global warming 'pause' in global mean surface temperature (GMST) to determine how it has been defined, what time intervals are used to characterise it, what data are used to measure it, and what methods used to assess it. We test for 'pauses', both in the normally understood meaning of the term to mean no warming trend, as well as for a 'pause' defined as a substantially slower trend in GMST. The tests are carried out with the historical versions of GMST that existed for each pause-interval tested, and with current versions of each of the GMST datasets. The tests are conducted following the common (but questionable) practice of breaking the linear fit at the start of the trend interval ('broken' trends), and also with trends that are continuous with the data bordering the trend interval. We also compare results when appropriate allowance is made for the selection bias problem. The results show that there is little or no statistical evidence for a lack of trend or slower trend in GMST using either the historical data or the current data. The perception that there was a 'pause' in GMST was bolstered by earlier biases in the data in combination with incomplete statistical testing. KW - climate variability KW - climate trends KW - temperature fluctuation KW - pause hiatus Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf342 SN - 1748-9326 VL - 13 IS - 12 PB - IOP Publ. Ltd. CY - Bristol ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Perkins, Daniel M. A1 - Perna, Andrea A1 - Adrian, Rita A1 - Cermeno, Pedro A1 - Gaedke, Ursula A1 - Huete-Ortega, Maria A1 - White, Ethan P. A1 - Yvon-Durocher, Gabriel T1 - Energetic equivalence underpins the size structure of tree and phytoplankton communities JF - Nature Communications N2 - The size structure of autotroph communities - the relative abundance of small vs. large individuals - shapes the functioning of ecosystems. Whether common mechanisms underpin the size structure of unicellular and multicellular autotrophs is, however, unknown. Using a global data compilation, we show that individual body masses in tree and phytoplankton communities follow power-law distributions and that the average exponents of these individual size distributions (ISD) differ. Phytoplankton communities are characterized by an average ISD exponent consistent with three-quarter-power scaling of metabolism with body mass and equivalence in energy use among mass classes. Tree communities deviate from this pattern in a manner consistent with equivalence in energy use among diameter size classes. Our findings suggest that whilst universal metabolic constraints ultimately underlie the emergent size structure of autotroph communities, divergent aspects of body size (volumetric vs. linear dimensions) shape the ecological outcome of metabolic scaling in forest vs. pelagic ecosystems. Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-08039-3 SN - 2041-1723 VL - 10 PB - Nature Publ. Group CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Wickert, Andrew D. A1 - Schildgen, Taylor F. T1 - Long-profile evolution of transport-limited gravel-bed rivers JF - Earth surface dynamics N2 - Alluvial and transport-limited bedrock rivers constitute the majority of fluvial systems on Earth. Their long profiles hold clues to their present state and past evolution. We currently possess first-principles-based governing equations for flow, sediment transport, and channel morphodynamics in these systems, which we lack for detachment-limited bedrock rivers. Here we formally couple these equations for transport-limited gravel-bed river long-profile evolution. The result is a new predictive relationship whose functional form and parameters are grounded in theory and defined through experimental data. From this, we produce a power-law analytical solution and a finite-difference numerical solution to long-profile evolution. Steady-state channel concavity and steepness are diagnostic of external drivers: concavity decreases with increasing uplift rate, and steepness increases with an increasing sediment-to-water supply ratio. Constraining free parameters explains common observations of river form: to match observed channel concavities, gravel-sized sediments must weather and fine - typically rapidly - and valleys typically should widen gradually. To match the empirical square-root width-discharge scaling in equilibrium-width gravel-bed rivers, downstream fining must occur. The ability to assign a cause to such observations is the direct result of a deductive approach to developing equations for landscape evolution. Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-7-17-2019 SN - 2196-6311 SN - 2196-632X VL - 7 IS - 1 SP - 17 EP - 43 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Uber, Magdalena A1 - Vandervaere, Jean-Pierre A1 - Zin, Isabella A1 - Braud, Isabelle A1 - Heistermann, Maik A1 - Legout, Cedric A1 - Molinie, Gilles A1 - Nord, Guillaume T1 - How does initial soil moisture influence the hydrological response? A case study from southern France JF - Hydrology and earth system sciences : HESS N2 - The phi(ev) is calculated from high-resolution discharge and precipitation data for several rain events with a cumulative precipitation P-cum ranging from less than 5mm to more than 80 mm. Because of the high uncertainty of phi(ev) associated with the hydrograph separation method, phi(ev) is calculated with several methods, including graphical methods, digital filters and a tracer-based method. The results indicate that the hydrological response depends on (theta) over bar (ini): during dry conditions phi(ev) is consistently below 0.1, even for events with high and intense precipitation. Above a threshold of (theta) over bar (ini) = 34 vol % phi(ev) can reach values up to 0.99 but there is a high scatter. Some variability can be explained with a weak correlation of phi(ev) with P-cum and rain intensity, but a considerable part of the variability remains unexplained. It is concluded that threshold-based methods can be helpful to prevent overestimation of the hydrological response during dry catchment conditions. The impact of soil moisture on the hydrological response during wet catchment conditions, however, is still insufficiently understood and cannot be generalized based on the present results. Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6127-2018 SN - 1027-5606 SN - 1607-7938 VL - 22 IS - 12 SP - 6127 EP - 6146 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Milewski, Robert A1 - Chabrillat, Sabine A1 - Behling, Robert T1 - Analyses of Recent Sediment Surface Dynamic of a Namibian Kalahari Salt Pan Based on Multitemporal Landsat and Hyperspectral Hyperion Data JF - Remote Sensing N2 - This study combines spaceborne multitemporal and hyperspectral data to analyze the spatial distribution of surface evaporite minerals and changes in a semi-arid depositional environment associated with episodic flooding events, the Omongwa salt pan (Kalahari, Namibia). The dynamic of the surface crust is evaluated by a change-detection approach using the Iterative-reweighted Multivariate Alteration Detection (IR-MAD) based on the Landsat archive imagery from 1984 to 2015. The results show that the salt pan is a highly dynamic and heterogeneous landform. A change gradient is observed from very stable pan border to a highly dynamic central pan. On the basis of hyperspectral EO-1 Hyperion images, the current distribution of surface evaporite minerals is characterized using Spectral Mixture Analysis (SMA). Assessment of field and image endmembers revealed that the pan surface can be categorized into three major crust types based on diagnostic absorption features and mineralogical ground truth data. The mineralogical crust types are related to different zones of surface change as well as pan morphology that influences brine flow during the pan inundation and desiccation cycles. These combined information are used to spatially map depositional environments where the more dynamic halite crust concentrates in lower areas although stable gypsum and calcite/sepiolite crusts appear in higher elevated areas. KW - salt pan KW - playa KW - hyperspectral KW - multitemporal KW - change detection KW - evaporite minerals Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/rs9020170 SN - 2072-4292 VL - 9 IS - 2 PB - MDPI CY - Basel ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schinköth, Michaela A1 - Brand, Ralf T1 - Automatic associations and the affective valuation of exercise BT - disentangling the type-1 process of the affective–reflective theory of physical inactivity and exercise JF - German Journal of Exercise and Sport Research N2 - The decision to exercise is not only bound to rational considerations but also automatic affective processes. The affective–reflective theory of physical inactivity and exercise (ART) proposes a theoretical framework for explaining how the automatic affective process (type‑1 process) will influence exercise behavior, i.e., through the automatic activation of exercise-related associations and a subsequent affective valuation of exercise. This study aimed to empirically test this assumption of the ART with data from 69 study participants. A single-measurement study, including within-subject experimental variation, was conducted. Automatic associations with exercise were first measured with a single-target implicit association test. The somato-affective core of the participants’ automatic valuation of exercise-related pictures was then assessed via heart rate variability (HRV) analysis, and the affective valence of the valuation was tested with a facial expression (FE; smile and frown) task. Exercise behavior was assessed via self-report. Multiple regression (path) analysis revealed that automatic associations predicted HRV reactivity (β = −0.24, p = .044); the signs of the correlation between automatic associations and the smile FE score was in the expected direction but remained nonsignificant (β = −0.21, p = .078). HRV reactivity predicted self-reported exercise behavior (β = −0.28, p = .013) (the same pattern of results was achieved for the frown FE score). The HRV-related results illustrate the potential role of automatic negative affective reactions to the thought of exercise as a restraining force in exercise motivation. For better empirical distinction between the two ART type‑1 process components, automatic associations and the affective valuation should perhaps be measured separately in the future. The results support the notion that automatic and affective processes should be regarded as essential aspects of the motivation to exercise. KW - Heart rate variability KW - Facial expression KW - Somatic KW - Dual-process KW - Motivation Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s12662-020-00664-9 SN - 2509-3150 SN - 2509-3142 VL - 50 IS - 654 SP - 366 EP - 376 PB - Springer CY - Berlin ; Heidelberg ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Mardoukhi, Yousof A1 - Chechkin, Aleksei V. A1 - Metzler, Ralf T1 - Spurious ergodicity breaking in normal and fractional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process JF - New Journal of Physics N2 - The Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process is a stationary and ergodic Gaussian process, that is fully determined by its covariance function and mean. We show here that the generic definitions of the ensemble- and time-averaged mean squared displacements fail to capture these properties consistently, leading to a spurious ergodicity breaking. We propose to remedy this failure by redefining the mean squared displacements such that they reflect unambiguously the statistical properties of any stochastic process. In particular we study the effect of the initial condition in the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process and its fractional extension. For the fractional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process representing typical experimental situations in crowded environments such as living biological cells, we show that the stationarity of the process delicately depends on the initial condition. KW - Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process KW - stationary stochastic process KW - ensemble and time averaged mean squared displacement Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/1367-2630/ab950b SN - 1367-2630 VL - 22 PB - IOP CY - London ER -