TY - JOUR A1 - Schaldach, Rüdiger A1 - Wimmer, Florian A1 - Koch, Jennifer A1 - Volland, Jan A1 - Geissler, Katja A1 - Köchy, Martin T1 - Model-based analysis of the environmental impacts of grazing management on Eastern Mediterranean ecosystems in Jordan JF - Journal of environmental management N2 - Eastern Mediterranean ecosystems are prone to desertification when under grazing pressure. Therefore, management of grazing intensity plays a crucial role to avoid or to diminish land degradation and to sustain both livelihoods and ecosystem functioning. The dynamic land-use model LandSHIFT was applied to a case study on the country level for Jordan. The impacts of different stocking densities on the environment were assessed through a set of simulation experiments for various combinations of climate input and assumptions about the development of livestock numbers. Indicators used for the analysis include a set of landscape metrics to account for habitat fragmentation and the "Human Appropriation of Net Primary Production" (HANPP), i.e., the difference between the amount of net primary production (NPP) that would be available in a natural ecosystem and the amount of NPP that remains under human management. Additionally, the potential of the economic valuation of ecosystem services, including landscape and grazing services, as an analysis concept was explored. We found that lower management intensities had a positive effect on HANPP but at the same time resulted in a strong increase of grazing area. This effect was even more pronounced under climate change due to a predominantly negative effect on the biomass productivity of grazing land. Also Landscape metrics tend to indicate decreasing habitat fragmentation as a consequence of lower grazing pressure. The valuation of ecosystem services revealed that low grazing intensity can lead to a comparatively higher economic value on the country level average. The results from our study underline the importance of considering grazing management as an important factor to manage dry-land ecosystems in a sustainable manner. KW - Sustainable management of Mediterranean grazing land KW - Land-use modeling KW - Climate change KW - Landscape metrics KW - Ecosystem service value KW - Human Appropriation of Net Primary Production (HANPP) Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2012.11.024 SN - 0301-4797 SN - 1095-8630 VL - 127 IS - 9 SP - S84 EP - S95 PB - Elsevier CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Plue, Jan A1 - De Frenne, Pieter A1 - Acharya, Kamal P. A1 - Brunet, Jorg A1 - Chabrerie, Olivier A1 - Decocq, Guillaume A1 - Diekmann, Martin A1 - Graae, Bente J. A1 - Heinken, Thilo A1 - Hermy, Martin A1 - Kolb, Annette A1 - Lemke, Isgard A1 - Liira, Jaan A1 - Naaf, Tobias A1 - Shevtsova, Anna A1 - Verheyen, Kris A1 - Wulf, Monika A1 - Cousins, Sara A. O. T1 - Climatic control of forest herb seed banks along a latitudinal gradient JF - Global ecology and biogeography : a journal of macroecology N2 - Aim Seed banks are central to the regeneration strategy of many plant species. Any factor altering seed bank density thus affects plant regeneration and population dynamics. Although seed banks are dynamic entities controlled by multiple environmental drivers, climatic factors are the most comprehensive, but still poorly understood. This study investigates how climatic variation structures seed production and resulting seed bank patterns. Location Temperate forests along a 1900km latitudinal gradient in north-western (NW) Europe. Methods Seed production and seed bank density were quantified in 153 plots along the gradient for four forest herbs with different seed longevity: Geum urbanum, Milium effusum, Poa nemoralis and Stachys sylvatica. We tested the importance of climatic and local environmental factors in shaping seed production and seed bank density. Results Seed production was determined by population size, and not by climatic factors. G.urbanum and M.effusum seed bank density declined with decreasing temperature (growing degree days) and/or increasing temperature range (maximum-minimum temperature). P.nemoralis and S.sylvatica seed bank density were limited by population size and not by climatic variables. Seed bank density was also influenced by other, local environmental factors such as soil pH or light availability. Different seed bank patterns emerged due to differential seed longevities. Species with long-lived seeds maintained constant seed bank densities by counteracting the reduced chance of regular years with high seed production at colder northern latitudes. Main conclusions Seed bank patterns show clear interspecific variation in response to climate across the distribution range. Not all seed banking species may be as well equipped to buffer climate change via their seed bank, notably in short-term persistent species. Since the buffering capacity of seed banks is key to species persistence, these results provide crucial information to advance climatic change predictions on range shifts, community and biodiversity responses. KW - Climate change KW - interspecific variation KW - plant-climate interaction KW - seed longevity KW - seed production KW - temperate deciduous forest KW - temperature Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12068 SN - 1466-822X SN - 1466-8238 VL - 22 IS - 10 SP - 1106 EP - 1117 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Wiesmeier, Martin A1 - Prietzel, Jörg A1 - Barthold, Frauke Katrin A1 - Spörlein, Peter A1 - Geuss, Uwe A1 - Hangen, Edzard A1 - Reischl, Arthur A1 - Schilling, Bernd A1 - von Lützow, Margit A1 - Kögel-Knabner, Ingrid T1 - Storage and drivers of organic carbon in forest soils of southeast Germany (Bavaria) - Implications for carbon sequestration JF - Forest ecology and management N2 - Temperate forest soils of central Europe are regarded as important pools for soil organic carbon (SOC) and thought to have a high potential for carbon (C) sequestration. However, comprehensive data on total SOC storage, particularly under different forest types, and its drivers is limited. In this study, we analyzed a forest data set of 596 completely sampled soil profiles down to the parent material or to a depth of 1 m within Bavaria in southeast Germany in order to determine representative SOC stocks under different forest types in central Europe and the impact of different environmental parameters. We calculated a total median SOC stock of 9.8 kg m(-2) which is considerably lower compared with many other inventories within central Europe that used modelled instead of measured soil properties. Statistical analyses revealed climate as controlling parameter for the storage of SOC with increasing stocks in cool, humid mountainous regions and a strong decrease in areas with higher temperatures. No significant differences of total SOC storage were found between broadleaf, coniferous and mixed forests. However, coniferous forests stored around 35% of total SOC in the labile organic layer that is prone to human disturbance, forest fires and rising temperatures. In contrast, mixed and broadleaf forests stored the major part of SOC in the mineral soil. Moreover, these two forest types showed unchanged or even slightly increased mineral SOC stocks with higher temperatures, whereas SOC stocks in mineral soils under coniferous forest were distinctly lower. We conclude that mixed and broadleaf forests are more advantageous for C sequestration than coniferous forests. An intensified incorporation of broadleaf species in extent coniferous forests of Bavaria would prevent substantial SOC losses as a result of rising temperatures in the course of climate change. KW - Tree species effect KW - Soil organic matter KW - Climate change KW - Forest management Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2013.01.025 SN - 0378-1127 VL - 295 IS - 10 SP - 162 EP - 172 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Barthold, Frauke Katrin A1 - Wiesmeier, Martin A1 - Breuer, L. A1 - Frede, Hans-Georg A1 - Wu, J. A1 - Blank, F. Benjamin T1 - Land use and climate control the spatial distribution of soil types in the grasslands of Inner Mongolia JF - Journal of arid environments N2 - The spatial distribution of soil types is controlled by a set of environmental factors such as climate, organisms, parent material and topography as well as time and space. A change of these factors will lead to a change in the spatial distribution of soil types. In this study, we use a digital soil mapping approach to improve our knowledge about major soil type distributing factors in the steppe regions of Inner Mongolia (China) which currently undergo tremendous environmental change, e.g. climate and land use change. We use Random Forests in an effort to map Reference Soil Groups according to the World Reference Base for Soil Resources (WRB) in the Xilin River catchment. We benefit from the superior prediction capabilities of RF and additional interpretive results in order to identify the major environmental factors that control spatial patterns of soil types. The nine WRB soil groups that were identified and spatially predicted for the study area are Arenosol, Calcisol, Cambisol, Chernozem, Cryosol, Gleysol, Kastanozem, Phaeozem and Regosol. Model and prediction performances of the RF model are high with an Out-of-Bag error of 51.6% for the model and a misclassification error for the predicted map of 28.9%. The main controlling factors of soil type distribution are land use, a set of topographic variables, geology and climate. However, land use and climate are of major importance and topography and geology are of minor importance. The visualizations of the predictions, the variable importance measures as result of RF and the comparisons of these with the spatial distribution of the environmental factors delivered additional, quantitative information of these controlling factors and revealed that intensively grazed areas are subjected to soil degradation. However, most of the area is still governed by natural soil forming processes which are driven by climate, topography and geology. Most importantly though, our study revealed that a shift towards warmer temperatures and lower precipitation regimes will lead to a change of the spatial distribution of RSGs towards steppe soils that store less carbon, i.e. a decrease of spatial extent of Phaeozems and an increase of spatial extent of Chernozems and Kastanozems. KW - Random Forests KW - Soil-environmental relationships KW - Steppe KW - Inner Mongolia KW - Land use change KW - Climate change Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2012.08.004 SN - 0140-1963 VL - 88 IS - 1 SP - 194 EP - 205 PB - Elsevier CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Tekken, Vera A1 - Costa, Luís Fílípe Carvalho da A1 - Kropp, Jürgen T1 - Increasing pressure, declining water and climate change in north-eastern Morocco JF - Journal of coastal conservation : planning and management N2 - The coastal stretch of north-eastern Mediterranean Morocco holds vitally important ecological, social, and economic functions. The implementation of large-scale luxury tourism resorts shall push socio-economic development and facilitate the shift from a mainly agrarian to a service economy. Sufficient water availability and intact beaches are among the key requirements for the successful realization of regional development plans. The water situation is already critical, additional water-intense sectors could overstrain the capacity of water resources. Further, coastal erosion caused by sea-level rise is projected. Regional climate change is observable, and must be included in regional water management. Long-term climate trends are assessed for the larger region (Moulouya basin) and for the near-coastal zone at Saidia. The amount of additional water demand is assessed for the large-dimensioned Saidia resort; including the monthly, seasonal and annual tourist per capita water need under inclusion of irrigated golf courses and garden areas. A shift of climate patterns is observed, a lengthening of the dry summer season, and as well a significant decline of annual precipitation. Thus, current water scarcity is mainly human-induced; however, climate change will aggravate the situation. As a consequence, severe environmental damage due to water scarcity is likely and could impinge on the quality of local tourism. The re-adjustment of current management routines is therefore essential. Possible adjustments are discussed and the analysis concludes with management recommendations for innovative regional water management of tourism facilities. KW - North-eastern Morocco KW - Climate change KW - Coastal zone KW - Luxury tourism KW - Water demand KW - Adaptation Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s11852-013-0234-7 SN - 1400-0350 VL - 17 IS - 3 SP - 379 EP - 388 PB - Springer CY - New York ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Bell, M. J. A1 - Jones, E. A1 - Smith, J. A1 - Smith, P. A1 - Yeluripati, J. A1 - Augustin, Jürgen A1 - Juszczak, R. A1 - Olejnik, J. A1 - Sommer, Michael T1 - Simulation of soil nitrogen, nitrous oxide emissions and mitigation scenarios at 3 European cropland sites using the ECOSSE model JF - Nutrient cycling in agroecosystems N2 - The global warming potential of nitrous oxide (N2O) and its long atmospheric lifetime mean its presence in the atmosphere is of major concern, and that methods are required to measure and reduce emissions. Large spatial and temporal variations means, however, that simple extrapolation of measured data is inappropriate, and that other methods of quantification are required. Although process-based models have been developed to simulate these emissions, they often require a large amount of input data that is not available at a regional scale, making regional and global emission estimates difficult to achieve. The spatial extent of organic soils means that quantification of emissions from these soil types is also required, but will not be achievable using a process-based model that has not been developed to simulate soil water contents above field capacity or organic soils. The ECOSSE model was developed to overcome these limitations, and with a requirement for only input data that is readily available at a regional scale, it can be used to quantify regional emissions and directly inform land-use change decisions. ECOSSE includes the major processes of nitrogen (N) turnover, with material being exchanged between pools of SOM at rates modified by temperature, soil moisture, soil pH and crop cover. Evaluation of its performance at site-scale is presented to demonstrate its ability to adequately simulate soil N contents and N2O emissions from cropland soils in Europe. Mitigation scenarios and sensitivity analyses are also presented to demonstrate how ECOSSE can be used to estimate the impact of future climate and land-use change on N2O emissions. KW - Soil N2O emissions KW - Process-based models KW - Land-use KW - Climate change Y1 - 2012 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10705-011-9479-4 SN - 1385-1314 VL - 92 IS - 2 SP - 161 EP - 181 PB - Springer CY - Dordrecht ER - TY - INPR A1 - Wellstein, Camilla A1 - Schröder-Esselbach, Boris A1 - Reineking, Bjoern A1 - Zimmermann, Niklaus E. T1 - Understanding species and community response to environmental change - A functional trait perspective T2 - Agriculture, ecosystems & environment : an international journal for scientific research on the relationship of agriculture and food production to the biosphere KW - Functional traits KW - Functional diversity KW - Database KW - Land use KW - Management KW - Climate change KW - Landscape KW - Ecosystem function KW - Clonal plants KW - Dispersal KW - Plant growth KW - Orthoptera Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2011.06.024 SN - 0167-8809 VL - 145 IS - 1 SP - 1 EP - 4 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - GEN A1 - Nathan, Ran A1 - Horvitz, Nir A1 - He, Yanping A1 - Kuparinen, Anna A1 - Schurr, Frank Martin A1 - Katul, Gabriel G. T1 - Spread of North American wind-dispersed trees in future environments T2 - Ecology letters N2 - P>Despite ample research, understanding plant spread and predicting their ability to track projected climate changes remain a formidable challenge to be confronted. We modelled the spread of North American wind-dispersed trees in current and future (c. 2060) conditions, accounting for variation in 10 key dispersal, demographic and environmental factors affecting population spread. Predicted spread rates vary substantially among 12 study species, primarily due to inter-specific variation in maturation age, fecundity and seed terminal velocity. Future spread is predicted to be faster if atmospheric CO2 enrichment would increase fecundity and advance maturation, irrespective of the projected changes in mean surface windspeed. Yet, for only a few species, predicted wind-driven spread will match future climate changes, conditioned on seed abscission occurring only in strong winds and environmental conditions favouring high survival of the farthest-dispersed seeds. Because such conditions are unlikely, North American wind-dispersed trees are expected to lag behind the projected climate range shift. KW - Climate change KW - demography KW - dispersal KW - fat-tailed dispersal kernels KW - forecasting KW - forests KW - invasion by extremes KW - long-distance dispersal KW - mechanistic models KW - plant migration KW - population spread KW - range expansion KW - survival KW - wind dispersal Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2010.01573.x SN - 1461-023X VL - 14 IS - 3 SP - 211 EP - 219 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Malden ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Wischnewski, Juliane A1 - Mackay, Anson W. A1 - Appleby, Peter G. A1 - Mischke, Steffen A1 - Herzschuh, Ulrike T1 - Modest diatom responses to regional warming on the southeast Tibetan Plateau during the last two centuries JF - Journal of paleolimnolog N2 - A general mean annual temperature increase accompanied with substantial glacial retreat has been noted on the Tibetan Plateau during the last two centuries but most significantly since the mid 1950s. These climate trends are particularly apparent on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. However, the Tibetan Plateau (due to its heterogeneous mountain landscape) has very complex and spatially differing temperature and precipitations patterns. As a result, intensive palaeolimnological investigations are necessary to decipher these climatic patterns and to understand ecological responses to recent environmental change. Here we present palaeolimnological results from a (210)Pb/(137)Cs-dated sediment core spanning approximately the last 200 years from a remote high-mountain lake (LC6 Lake, working name) on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. Sediment profiles of diatoms, organic variables (TOC, C:N) and grain size were investigated. The (210)Pb record suggests a period of rapid sedimentation, which might be linked to major tectonic events in the region ca. 1950. Furthermore, unusually high (210)Pb supply rates over the last 50 years suggest that the lake has possibly been subjected to increasing precipitation rates, sediment focussing and/or increased spring thaw. The majority of diatom taxa encountered in the core are typical of slightly acidic to circumneutral, oligotrophic, electrolyte-poor lakes. Diatom species assemblages were rich, and dominated by Cyclotella sp., Achnanthes sp., Aulacoseira sp. and fragilarioid taxa. Diatom compositional change was minimal over the 200-year period (DCCA = 0.85 SD, p = 0.59); only a slightly more diverse but unstable diatom assemblage was recorded during the past 50 years. The results indicate that large-scale environmental changes recorded in the twentieth century (i.e. increased precipitation and temperatures) are likely having an affect on the LC6 Lake, but so far these impacts are more apparent on the lake geochemistry than on the diatom flora. Local and/or regional peculiarities, such as increasing precipitation and cloud cover, or localized climatic phenomena, such as negative climate feedbacks, might have offset the effects of increasing mean surface temperatures. KW - Diatoms KW - Tibetan Plateau KW - Mountain lake KW - Climate change KW - Lake sediments KW - Palaeolimnology Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10933-011-9533-x SN - 0921-2728 VL - 46 IS - 2 SP - 215 EP - 227 PB - Springer CY - Dordrecht ER -